Dealers no longer doing the Natty.

CrissCriss · July 8, 2019 12:11PM

Looks like Dick DeCourcy is hanging em up. Nice guy, always enjoyed talking to him.

Any other retirements? Bet we see an exodus next year with the return to AC.

nam812 · July 8, 2019 12:22PM

Uncle Dick from Georgia Music. Nice man.

olb31 · July 8, 2019 12:25PM

The National is a great spotlight for the hobby, lots publicity, good time for all the timers to come together. However, having attended one, I found that there are lot of high priced cards, alot ungraded. The costs for the dealers is high. The traditional shows, like the one in chantilly I will be attending this week, are the shows I enjoy. A wide range of product, low end, commons, mid level cards, not a lot of high end cards , but a few. This fits my collecting style and pocket book. Plus a wider variety of product. And wdier range of dealers/sellers not all high end.

81 Topps Guy · July 8, 2019 12:43PM

Agree 100% about Uncle Dick, he was as certain as death and taxes. One of the good guys for sure

Stone193 · July 8, 2019 1:34PM

Last year I wanted to seek out the three dealers who have been to "all" the Nationals.

from SCD: There are three dealers that have experienced and seen all of these changes firsthand. This trio, are the three dealers that haven’t missed one National- Cleveland 2018 was their 39th consecutive.
For John Rumierz, B.A. Murry and Pat Quinn, it’s not only been a “long strange trip,” but they know exactly where they’ve been the last 39 years, come late July and early August. The National. The question everyone wants to know is will they be back for the “Big 4-0?”

I wound up meeting 2 of the dealers and had a really good talk with them about the hobby, selling and just general chit chat about the price of a coke and pretzel e.g.

John Ramirez

BA Murry

PaulMaul · July 8, 2019 2:14PM

@1970s said:
I wonder how many of the dealers think the national will one day be history. Too many old faces, and not enough young ones to keep the hobby going. Kids today have zero interest in sports cards. Well, not zero, but you know what I mean.

You should see the Philly Non-Sports show....median age is about 70.

ahopkins · July 8, 2019 2:40PM

@FSF said:
If you are in your 50s or younger, I personally think we will all witness a sever degradation in the value of these collectibles by the time we pass on, assuming a normal life span.

Good. Then I'll be able to get all those expensive cards for really cheap in my old age. Value, for me, comes from within, not without.

Bring on the degradation!

Huskies11 · July 8, 2019 2:40PM

@FSF said:

@1970s said:
I wonder how many of the dealers think the national will one day be history. Too many old faces, and not enough young ones to keep the hobby going. Kids today have zero interest in sports cards. Well, not zero, but you know what I mean.

Apart from art, which I don't equate to collecting coins or cards, I think every collectible has a shelf life. As someone in a comic forum wrote, there's a bell curve effect to pricing of stamps, coins, cards, comics, etc. If you are over 65 today, you'll likely be okay for your lifetime as far as cards are concerned. If you are in your 50s or younger, I personally think we will all witness a sever degradation in the value of these collectibles by the time we pass on, assuming a normal life span.

Agreed, but I also think it will evolve the same way any market does. I think the super high end stuff will always have a market, newer stuff that's put out to satisfy younger collectors will continue to do well, but I think what's in between will suffer the most.

Very interested what happens to TPGs as demographics skew younger. My guess is that with a more modern card bias, collectors will see less value in card grading as a whole.

softparade · July 8, 2019 3:48PM

This hobby hasn’t targeted “kids” in well over three decades. When are we finally going to lose the “no kids are getting involved” ghost? This is an adult hobby and new people come in as adults. Been that way for far longer than anybody cares to admit. AND, the hobby is healthy despite many warts.

softparade · July 8, 2019 3:50PM

@FSF said:

@ahopkins said:

@FSF said:
If you are in your 50s or younger, I personally think we will all witness a sever degradation in the value of these collectibles by the time we pass on, assuming a normal life span.

Good. Then I'll be able to get all those expensive cards for really cheap in my old age. Value, for me, comes from within, not without.

Bring on the degradation!

Every current active collector always talks like that but when the time comes nobody does the walk. I can even prove it. Cards have exploded so much in the past few years but where were all these eager buyers like yourself when all of these great cards were a fraction of the values just a mere 5 years ago and you could have paid off your houses and college tuitions with the gains? Were you and all these people not aware of the existence of sports cards? Funny how everyone comes out of the woodwork as increasing price action takes place and they all go scurrying to the hills at the first sign of prices collapsing.

I’ll tell you where I was. Afraid of losing my job and sticking to essentials like most in the years coming out of our nations economic disaster.

Sdub · July 8, 2019 4:09PM

The National for me is more of a social event. Checking in with Forum/FB members, looking at all the museum pieces, meeting the old-timers, hanging out at BBCE booth, and spending time with my son. Also an excuse to hang out in a great city, Chicago. Bringing my wife this year and spending an extra two days. Yes, most product is overpriced and my expectations are low in purchasing anything for the PC, but l always find some corner booth that has something I want that is reasonably priced.

Stone193 · July 8, 2019 4:28PM

Well.

This is tense.

Whether you collect for future profit or fun - in the end - each one is happy.

softparade · July 8, 2019 4:40PM

@FSF said:

@softparade said:
This hobby hasn’t targeted “kids” in well over three decades. When are we finally going to lose the “no kids are getting involved” ghost? This is an adult hobby and new people come in as adults. Been that way for far longer than anybody cares to admit. AND, the hobby is healthy despite many warts.

The adults you refer to mostly all had experiences of collecting as a child. That is why they collect even to this day. And the reason for the increase in prices that we see is because of the kids who grew up in the 80s and 90s who are earning a lot of money in their peak earning years today in an effort to feed that passionate nostalgia yearning for the experiences they had in their formative years. There will be no nostalgia for future generations because as you stated, no kids are getting involved anymore.

Disagree. Nothing ever stays the same. Nothing. But, if your selling I’m listening.

softparade · July 8, 2019 4:53PM

@FSF said:
No one can know the future. I'm only drawing the conclusions I can based on what has clearly transpired in the stamp world and what is clearly transpiring in the coin world, where in both, only the uber treasures seem to matter and every else under the sun seems to be looked upon as dreck. Whatever you or I say will mean nothing. So feel free to feel how you will and I will do likewise.

Who is buying all of these new releases in basketball, baseball, and football? Certainly not this old bastard (50). Who? All i see is release after release after release of another set. Optic this and Gypsy Queen that and bla bla bla. It’s not the nostalgia guys my friend....

softparade · July 8, 2019 5:01PM

@FSF said:
Actually, I very much believe that just like comic books, most of the new releases are indeed being bought by adults. I would be nothing short of utterly stunned if even 10% of today's cards are being genuinely bought by kids. I'm not sure if you ever collected comics but try going into a local comic shop every day for the next month. You'd have a better chance of seeing Bigfoot than you would a kid walking though that door, unless of course he's being dragged by his father.

Of course it’s being put purchased by adults. And by dudes and dudettes who don’t care about nostalgia or what they purchased as 8 years olds because that didn’t happen.

softparade · July 8, 2019 5:09PM

@FSF said:
To be clear, I mean adults that collected as children, such as many here on this forum. I don't think for one second that there is any material amount of new adult collectors buying the stuff.

Also, it's even a bigger issue as to the overall hobby considering that the new card market is a tiny fraction of what it was in the 1990s. And the packs are so much more expensive. So in volume terms, there's just not much permeating the market and as I said, I don't believe children nor first time collecting adults account for hardly any of that action.

We can go around and around and around forever. I disagree with your dire forecast. PM me with your sell list when you’re ready.

lahmejoon · July 8, 2019 5:57PM

@softparade said:

@FSF said:
No one can know the future. I'm only drawing the conclusions I can based on what has clearly transpired in the stamp world and what is clearly transpiring in the coin world, where in both, only the uber treasures seem to matter and every else under the sun seems to be looked upon as dreck. Whatever you or I say will mean nothing. So feel free to feel how you will and I will do likewise.

Who is buying all of these new releases in basketball, baseball, and football? Certainly not this old bastard (50). Who? All i see is release after release after release of another set. Optic this and Gypsy Queen that and bla bla bla. It’s not the nostalgia guys my friend....

There are some new people in the hobby that buy stuff for the thrill of the gamble. The hits mean very little to them - once they hit something, it's immediately uploaded to ebay. Do some degree, I think there are a lot of similarities now with the 90's market. There are non-collectors that are speculating on stuff now because it's been publicized that there's some real money to be had in the hobby. I don't see that as being good for the hobby.

I think most guys on here are not of this mindset and value collecting more than the hits and speculating. That said, I do like that I have stuff of value and do think that as guys my age (I'm 40) get up there in years, the lack of interest of the next generation will result in decreased values on most things. From an investment standpoint, it would be a good time to lock in some profit. But, I like having the stuff, which is what collecting is all about.

80sOPC · July 8, 2019 6:11PM

@softparade said:
This hobby hasn’t targeted “kids” in well over three decades. When are we finally going to lose the “no kids are getting involved” ghost? This is an adult hobby and new people come in as adults. Been that way for far longer than anybody cares to admit. AND, the hobby is healthy despite many warts.

How many on these forums didn’t collect at all as kids and came in as adults? I’d suggest the number is very small. Lots came BACK as adults but I bet those that entered as adults is a small %.

I don’t consider the hobby that healthy. The major card brands are barely hanging on and the median age collector has to be 45+. I live in a CDN city of 150k and there is one card shop and none of the big box store carry anything more then a few hanger packs. Stores that used to carry, have stopped in the past few years.

I think people see what high end sells for and has returned and use that as a proxy for the broader market.

All that said I will collect until they put me in the dirt but I don’t see much of a future. When I hear middle class folks talking about investing in sportscards it makes me cringe. Always wondered how many collectors have a significant portion of their net worth in cards.

ElvisP · July 8, 2019 6:32PM

Now is the time to sell because the economy has never been better. After Trump gets voted out in a little over a year the economy will go in the tank and people won't have near the money to spend on collecting as they do now. I think by next summer people will start pulling back in anticipation of the downturn. Just my 2 cents

softparade · July 8, 2019 6:35PM

@ElvisP said:
Now is the time to sell because the economy has never been better. After Trump gets voted out in a little over a year the economy will go in the tank and people won't have near the money to spend on collecting as they do now. I think by next summer people will start pulling back in anticipation of the downturn. Just my 2 cents

Good Luck with THAT lolz

demondeacs · July 8, 2019 6:36PM

@softparade said:

@FSF said:
Actually, I very much believe that just like comic books, most of the new releases are indeed being bought by adults. I would be nothing short of utterly stunned if even 10% of today's cards are being genuinely bought by kids. I'm not sure if you ever collected comics but try going into a local comic shop every day for the next month. You'd have a better chance of seeing Bigfoot than you would a kid walking though that door, unless of course he's being dragged by his father.

Of course it’s being put purchased by adults. And by dudes and dudettes who don’t care about nostalgia or what they purchased as 8 years olds because that didn’t happen.

Agreed. The "I don't see kids buying" argument can be seen in threads here from 2002-2004. Yet the blowout boards still have plenty of dudes in their twenties and thirties (or so it would seem). Last time I looked at that board, it certainly didn't look like a place populated by 40+ year olds. That means they were kids when people were saying "kids aren't buying today and likely never will..."

People love sports and love pretending they're a gm. If the card companies do a better job of marketing the prospecting aspect of the hobby, and how easy and cheap it can be to unload cards, the modern market will only grow. Then a percentage of that will look at vintage, which has always been a cheaper alternative for those not concerned with super high grade quality.

BLUEJAYWAY · July 8, 2019 6:39PM

@FSF said:

@1970s said:
I wonder how many of the dealers think the national will one day be history. Too many old faces, and not enough young ones to keep the hobby going. Kids today have zero interest in sports cards. Well, not zero, but you know what I mean.

Apart from art, which I don't equate to collecting coins or cards, I think every collectible has a shelf life. As someone in a comic forum wrote, there's a bell curve effect to pricing of stamps, coins, cards, comics, etc. If you are over 65 today, you'll likely be okay for your lifetime as far as cards are concerned. If you are in your 50s or younger, I personally think we will all witness a sever degradation in the value of these collectibles by the time we pass on, assuming a normal life span.

Do you think/does this include vintage unopened that will suffer the same fate within your prediction?

softparade · July 8, 2019 7:26PM

@BLUEJAYWAY said:

@FSF said:

@1970s said:
I wonder how many of the dealers think the national will one day be history. Too many old faces, and not enough young ones to keep the hobby going. Kids today have zero interest in sports cards. Well, not zero, but you know what I mean.

Apart from art, which I don't equate to collecting coins or cards, I think every collectible has a shelf life. As someone in a comic forum wrote, there's a bell curve effect to pricing of stamps, coins, cards, comics, etc. If you are over 65 today, you'll likely be okay for your lifetime as far as cards are concerned. If you are in your 50s or younger, I personally think we will all witness a sever degradation in the value of these collectibles by the time we pass on, assuming a normal life span.

Do you think/does this include vintage unopened that will suffer the same fate within your prediction?

lol not happening

ElvisP · July 8, 2019 7:54PM

Uncle Dick is from my area of the country and I see him 2-3 times a year. I knew he was retiring. This will be his last National unless he changes his mind. Great guy and I hope he enjoys his retirement.

PaulMaul · July 8, 2019 8:29PM

@softparade said:

@BLUEJAYWAY said:

@FSF said:

@1970s said:
I wonder how many of the dealers think the national will one day be history. Too many old faces, and not enough young ones to keep the hobby going. Kids today have zero interest in sports cards. Well, not zero, but you know what I mean.

Apart from art, which I don't equate to collecting coins or cards, I think every collectible has a shelf life. As someone in a comic forum wrote, there's a bell curve effect to pricing of stamps, coins, cards, comics, etc. If you are over 65 today, you'll likely be okay for your lifetime as far as cards are concerned. If you are in your 50s or younger, I personally think we will all witness a sever degradation in the value of these collectibles by the time we pass on, assuming a normal life span.

Do you think/does this include vintage unopened that will suffer the same fate within your prediction?

lol not happening

I think you’re being way too complacent. These items mean so much to us that it’s extremely difficult for you to picture a future where no one cares about it. I guarantee you, with my beloved wacky packages, it is a virtual certainty they will be worthless in fifty years. Virtually everyone who cares about them right now is 50-57 years old. Within the next 20 years the major collections will be sold off, softening the market. It will then fade out from there. No doubt about it.

Sports cards have a little more breadth. It’s unlikely a Mantle rookie will be worthless anytime soon, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing that 50 years from now, a 1978 Wax tray will be a hot item.

PaulMaul · July 8, 2019 8:40PM

One might say, “look at T-206, there’s no one alive with any nostalgia for those cards, yet they’re still popular!” A 45 year old today that religiously collected cards in 1980 can still appreciate older cards, and potentially branch out to collecting them. But once there are no adults left who ever cared about collecting cards, who will be the audience for any of this stuff?

I know several fellow collectors who plan on leaving important vintage sets to their children. Sad news flash, they won’t care. At best they will remember how much dad loved these cards and that may give them a warm feeling. But they will not care about the cards at all.

Stone193 · July 8, 2019 8:46PM

But they will not care about the cards at all.

Definitely a possibility.

Summarily followed by a quick flip for a low carbon emitting hybrid.

KendallCat · July 8, 2019 9:32PM

@Sdub said:
The National for me is more of a social event. Checking in with Forum/FB members, looking at all the museum pieces, meeting the old-timers, hanging out at BBCE booth, and spending time with my son. Also an excuse to hang out in a great city, Chicago. Bringing my wife this year and spending an extra two days. Yes, most product is overpriced and my expectations are low in purchasing anything for the PC, but l always find some corner booth that has something I want that is reasonably priced.

JB - looking forward to catching up in Chicago in a few weeks, and bringing the usual two boys with me - wife is on the fence with work and it being so close to the start of football season so she is a maybe for the first time in years. Have stashed up a bunch of 2018-19 boxes to rip at the hotel plus buy some while I am there - I believe you and your son do the same. I am also bringing a stash of 75 racks that are BBCE wrapped as well as a few extra Mantle, Ryan, and Aaron cards to possibly move. See you in a few weeks.

KC

akuracy503 · July 8, 2019 9:38PM

@Stone193 said:

But they will not care about the cards at all.

Definitely a possibility.

Summarily followed by a quick flip for a low carbon emitting hybrid.

Hybrids aren’t even the cool thing anymore. We’ll have self driving electric.
I already get blank stares from my kid when I break out the vintage. Even the $ value doesn’t interest him.

softparade · July 9, 2019 4:49AM

@PaulMaul said:
One might say, “look at T-206, there’s no one alive with any nostalgia for those cards, yet they’re still popular!” A 45 year old today that religiously collected cards in 1980 can still appreciate older cards, and potentially branch out to collecting them. But once there are no adults left who ever cared about collecting cards, who will be the audience for any of this stuff?

I know several fellow collectors who plan on leaving important vintage sets to their children. Sad news flash, they won’t care. At best they will remember how much dad loved these cards and that may give them a warm feeling. But they will not care about the cards at all.

PM me your sell list when ready too

PaulMaul · July 9, 2019 5:11AM

@softparade said:

@PaulMaul said:
One might say, “look at T-206, there’s no one alive with any nostalgia for those cards, yet they’re still popular!” A 45 year old today that religiously collected cards in 1980 can still appreciate older cards, and potentially branch out to collecting them. But once there are no adults left who ever cared about collecting cards, who will be the audience for any of this stuff?

I know several fellow collectors who plan on leaving important vintage sets to their children. Sad news flash, they won’t care. At best they will remember how much dad loved these cards and that may give them a warm feeling. But they will not care about the cards at all.

PM me your sell list when ready too

Will do, as I said, it won’t be for about 15-20 years.

doubledragon · July 9, 2019 9:05AM

As far as kids go, this is the hobby's worst enemy.

PatsGuy5000 · July 9, 2019 11:00AM

Interesting forecasts on the future of the hobby.... I collected as a child (early 70's) got out, raised a family and am back in. Currently purchasing many graded superstars from the current and past. I too believe that the success of professional sports has a direct correlation with the hobby for the future. Current forecast: I think many vintage issues other than baseball are undervalued compared to baseball and can have a healthy appreciation in price over the next few years. The number of cards graded/printed are scarcer compared to the baseball populations. I do think baseball has a special place with collecting since it has been around for such a long time. NFL and NBA continue to be very popular, NHL & Boxing have very low populations, and the non sport market seems to be attracting more collectors. Just my thoughts on what I have seen since back in the hobby for the past 10 years.

Sdub · July 9, 2019 11:54AM

@KendallCat said:

@Sdub said:
The National for me is more of a social event. Checking in with Forum/FB members, looking at all the museum pieces, meeting the old-timers, hanging out at BBCE booth, and spending time with my son. Also an excuse to hang out in a great city, Chicago. Bringing my wife this year and spending an extra two days. Yes, most product is overpriced and my expectations are low in purchasing anything for the PC, but l always find some corner booth that has something I want that is reasonably priced.

JB - looking forward to catching up in Chicago in a few weeks, and bringing the usual two boys with me - wife is on the fence with work and it being so close to the start of football season so she is a maybe for the first time in years. Have stashed up a bunch of 2018-19 boxes to rip at the hotel plus buy some while I am there - I believe you and your son do the same. I am also bringing a stash of 75 racks that are BBCE wrapped as well as a few extra Mantle, Ryan, and Aaron cards to possibly move. See you in a few weeks.

KC

Keith,

Looking forward to seeing you at the National. Haven't decided what modern to rip this year, but if you have some good ideas, let me know.

esquiresports · July 9, 2019 12:12PM

A few random thoughts on topics addressed above:

Unopened is just as susceptible to market downturns as graded or raw cards. I amassed a complete 1970s wax box run a few years after the great recession at a massive discount to where prices were previously.
The prices I see for top-end modern (e.g., low-pop Trout rookies) are mind-boggling. Suggests longer-term (i.e., decades) strong demand for modern cards, assuming a healthy economy.
I am not a sold on the nostalgia factor being necessary to sustain the market. While it is a good hook to get people into cards, but the majority of people I know with '52 Mantles never saw Mantle play. The T206 market sort of speaks for itself.
In a down economy, look for higher-end items (five figures and up) to drop last, drop the least percentage-wise, and go back up first. This is similar to how the real estate bust played out. However, the rebound can take several years.

PROMETHIUS88 · July 9, 2019 12:18PM

@KendallCat said:

@Sdub said:
The National for me is more of a social event. Checking in with Forum/FB members, looking at all the museum pieces, meeting the old-timers, hanging out at BBCE booth, and spending time with my son. Also an excuse to hang out in a great city, Chicago. Bringing my wife this year and spending an extra two days. Yes, most product is overpriced and my expectations are low in purchasing anything for the PC, but l always find some corner booth that has something I want that is reasonably priced.

JB - looking forward to catching up in Chicago in a few weeks, and bringing the usual two boys with me - wife is on the fence with work and it being so close to the start of football season so she is a maybe for the first time in years. Have stashed up a bunch of 2018-19 boxes to rip at the hotel plus buy some while I am there - I believe you and your son do the same. I am also bringing a stash of 75 racks that are BBCE wrapped as well as a few extra Mantle, Ryan, and Aaron cards to possibly move. See you in a few weeks.

KC

If you are bring some 75 racks to move, I would be interested in one. Working on getting everything in 75 and a rack is still on the needs list. I'll be there Thursday thru Saturday!

Tim

softparade · July 9, 2019 1:16PM

softparade · July 9, 2019 1:17PM

@esquiresports said:
A few random thoughts on topics addressed above:

Unopened is just as susceptible to market downturns as graded or raw cards. I amassed a complete 1970s wax box run a few years after the great recession at a massive discount to where prices were previously.

The prices I see for top-end modern (e.g., low-pop Trout rookies) are mind-boggling. Suggests longer-term (i.e., decades) strong demand for modern cards, assuming a healthy economy.

I am not a sold on the nostalgia factor being necessary to sustain the market. While it is a good hook to get people into cards, but the majority of people I know with '52 Mantles never saw Mantle play. The T206 market sort of speaks for itself.

In a down economy, look for higher-end items (five figures and up) to drop last, drop the least percentage-wise, and go back up first. This is similar to how the real estate bust played out. However, the rebound can take several years.

Good post my friend. Except I doubt the 70's full box run came at "massive" discounts from pre 2006. If it's legit stuff. Legit unopened early and mid 70's never crashed..... which would be the case if you were seeing massive discounts. I don't buy that at all. Now, I'm not saying you are lying either lol …. I just don't buy it man. Pre '78 stuff stayed strong all throughout.

PaulMaul · July 9, 2019 1:33PM

@esquiresports said:
A few random thoughts on topics addressed above:

I am not a sold on the nostalgia factor being necessary to sustain the market. While it is a good hook to get people into cards, but the majority of people I know with '52 Mantles never saw Mantle play. The T206 market sort of speaks for itself.

There are two types of card owners. Those that love collecting cards (almost always because of youth nostalgia), and those that purchase cards as an investment. There is some, or even considerable overlap between those groups. Just because someone never saw Mantle play doesn’t mean that a Mantle rookie (or a T206) is not a nostalgia fueled purchase. The buyer has nostalgia for card collecting in general and has branched out as he became a more advanced collector.

Investors, even if they lack nostalgia themselves, are banking on the nostalgia of an end user to fuel their investment.

So, I guess I disagree with you, because I believe if all nostalgic feelings for cards were wiped out that interest in cards would pretty much crater.

esquiresports · July 9, 2019 4:29PM

Good post my friend. Except I doubt the 70's full box run came at "massive" discounts from pre 2006. If it's legit stuff. Legit unopened early and mid 70's never crashed..... which would be the case if you were seeing massive discounts. I don't buy that at all. Now, I'm not saying you are lying either lol …. I just don't buy it man. Pre '78 stuff stayed strong all throughout.

Giving it additional thought, you may be correct/largely correct. It may primarily be that the large run-up started post-2012. I re-entered the hobby around that time (I found my post about getting the 1971 wax box in early 2012). I recall prices being much lower than pre-2009, but am not sure how much lower. (PS - I did sell the 1971 a couple years ago.)

CrissCriss - I do not see millennials staffing tables anytime soon, but people do change over time. Maybe once they hit their 40s and up, it will start to happen. I imagine their sports card purchasing being almost exclusively online. This makes it harder to gauge their interest in the hobby as a whole; I wouldn't count on National attendance as being representative. It also doesn't help that just getting to and attending the National by itself can be a relatively expensive undertaking.

80sOPC · July 9, 2019 4:47PM

I just don’t see where long term demand will come from. It is such a niche hobby to begin with. The rare time I get to the one LCS in my town the median age is 50+.

I think my story is probably similar to most here. Buying cards at the local convenience store, trading with friends. Hobby went nuts in the early 90s and everyones dads were stacking away junk wax. Left hobby for a while, came back with some disposable income, bought like crazy.

Unless for our investment purposes I don’t see where the next generation comes from. Being attached to say hockey does not IMO translate into being attached to hockey cards. Cards were how my generation connected with the sport. I just can’t imagine what type of event would draw adults into collecting cardboard for the first time.

grote15 · July 9, 2019 5:12PM

I've been reading that the future of the hobby is bleak for the past 20 years now. And the hobby, even in the wake of scandals and negative news, remains as strong as ever. I know many hard core collectors who grew up in the 90s and 00s who have become avid collectors of vintage product, too in recent years. The hobby continues to evolve over time.

I'm not going to predict that the hobby will be as vibrant as it is presently 50 or 60 years from now, but to suggest that this hobby will go the way of stamp collecting is misguided, IMO.

As long as individuals earn enough income to dabble in collectibles and sports remains as popular as they are in our culture, I believe there will always be enough interest to sustain this hobby short of a global economic recession wherein even wealthier individuals see a drastic reduction in disposable income.

I also believe the vintage pack break phenomenon and various raffles that are being sponsored now have had and will continue to have a lasting impact on this hobby, too, though to what extent that will last is a topic for debate.

SidePocket · July 9, 2019 7:58PM

Well said Tim.

PaulMaul · July 10, 2019 4:44AM

@grote15 There’s a difference between the Bull Market/Bear Market discussions, which usually predict a “crash” somewhere in the near term, and what’s being said here. I’m just acknowledging that card collecting is a generational hobby which is not popular among today’s kids. To me, the downturn of card values is more a question of when than if.

I think it’s a mistake to assume that people will care about cards just because they care about sports. I think it reflects the same bias as other comments in this thread. For those of us who love and have grown up with cards it’s hard to imagine someone won’t always feel that way. But if you approach it dispassionately I can’t see how you reach any other conclusion.

grote15 · July 10, 2019 10:56AM

@PaulMaul said:
@grote15 There’s a difference between the Bull Market/Bear Market discussions, which usually predict a “crash” somewhere in the near term, and what’s being said here. I’m just acknowledging that card collecting is a generational hobby which is not popular among today’s kids. To me, the downturn of card values is more a question of when than if.

I think it’s a mistake to assume that people will care about cards just because they care about sports. I think it reflects the same bias as other comments in this thread. For those of us who love and have grown up with cards it’s hard to imagine someone won’t always feel that way. But if you approach it dispassionately I can’t see how you reach any other conclusion.

I don't agree and as I said I've been hearing this argument for over 20 years now but time will tell. As long as people are making money and have the urge to collect, sports cards will remain a viable option. That's just my humble opinion.

Now, as far as those Wacky Packages, now THOSE I can see falling in value to pennies on the dollar in the not too distant future.

80sOPC · July 10, 2019 1:25PM

Opus One? Only when I can’t pour Screaming Eagle

rcmb3220 · July 10, 2019 2:13PM

I think we have 30 years left with the inevitable ups and downs. That’s long enough for me.

softparade · July 10, 2019 4:30PM

Everybody with the gloom and doom outlook please send me your unopened sell sheet when ready.

Thx

PaulMaul · July 10, 2019 4:38PM

@softparade said:
Everybody with the gloom and doom outlook please send me your unopened sell sheet when ready.

Thx

I don’t believe anyone said there would be doom and gloom short term. So why would they be selling you their unopened now?

Fact is, by the time those people do want to sell, you probably will also.

81 Topps Guy · July 10, 2019 4:53PM

Dave, I think Tim nailed it when he said Wacky Packages will fall through the floor soon, I’ll do you a favor and pay you $.20 on the dollar for all of yours

PaulMaul · July 10, 2019 5:02PM

@81 Topps Guy said:
Dave, I think Tim nailed it when he said Wacky Packages will fall through the floor soon, I’ll do you a favor and pay you $.20 on the dollar for all of yours

All kidding aside, when it comes to wacky packages, I believe we have definitely already reached the peak and have begun sliding down the other side of the hill, though slowly. Evidence:

Since I started collecting in 2001, I would say decent condition raw sets from the more common series (3-10) have dropped in value by at least 60%. Pretty much everyone who had these as a kid has been made aware of them by now, and whoever wants to buy them has mostly already done so.

Unopened finds and fresh collections have largely dried up. Most of the stuff that was out there has come to market. Watching eBay now, you see pretty much the same recycled items over and over again.

Yes, top PSA graded wackys still do well. I have no doubt that unopened material would do well if it were certified, but again very little has been surfacing lately.

Of course I still love the stuff so I have no plans to sell.

Dealers no longer doing the Natty.

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