The mistake you guys are making is to think a gradual decline will happen without any change in your desire to buy. The decline will be happening because, eventually, you and your contemporaries will be aging, retiring, and selling. And the buying pool will continue to contract. It’s not the kind of decline you’ll notice in real time.
@PaulMaul said:
The mistake you guys are making is to think a gradual decline will happen without any change in your desire to buy. The decline will be happening because, eventually, you and your contemporaries will be aging, retiring, and selling. And the buying pool will continue to contract. It’s not the kind of decline you’ll notice in real time.
Well, expressing certainty about any financial market's future is always a mistake. Folks were playing the no kids card when much of today's current bowman chrome market was between the ages of 10-15 or younger, and prospect cards are selling for far more than they ever did even if you include inflation. In 2005 no one knew where the market would be in 2019 and no one here knows where it will be in 2035 regardless of what their gut tells them.
@PaulMaul said:
The mistake you guys are making is to think a gradual decline will happen without any change in your desire to buy. The decline will be happening because, eventually, you and your contemporaries will be aging, retiring, and selling. And the buying pool will continue to contract. It’s not the kind of decline you’ll notice in real time.
I agree that if cards decline it will be a gradual slide that likely starts with prices remaining relatively stable for a period of time and then starting to gradually slip. Certain segments will fall faster and more than others.
I would welcome a rapid crash but unless something happens that makes collecting impossible (some sort of cataclysmic disaster) - I doubt to see one.
I do believe that collectors of everything trend younger and older with a smaller segment in between. Most have disposable income in your youth and then again when when they mature in their career. I already own dozens of cards I never would have dreamed I could as a kid.
Some of us have the collector gene - my dad has it, my brother has it - my very young nephews seem to have it. My nephews may collect cards maybe something else but betting they collect something.
My dad will almost surely pass with his coin collection intact. My brother and I will likely keep a few to remember his collection by and then sell the rest and pump it into cards. I will have no idea if what we get is more than or less than what he paid over the years. Guessing some will be up and some will be down. The cards I buy from that will be very special to me because they will make me think of him.
So as those of us with the strongest gene to collect pass away, our passion may remain and be converted into something else. The luckiest of us will enjoy our hobby until the end. I truly hope to enjoy a time in the hobby when prices start declining. If I die before the decline I will never know and my heirs will get more. If I live into it I will have a collection that includes some incredible cards I never thought I would own.
@Tibor said:
This thread has gone from who is not going to the "Natty" or retiring
from attending it to mainly doom and gloom about the future of our
hobby. Un-opened will for the most part will hold its value or increase
due to rippers.
Agree on this count. The thrill of scoring the big hit via pack breaking will keep unopened product in demand. In the past, such premiums usually meant people hoarding the packs with no plans on ever opening them, but with the advent of pack breaking that supply of unopened, always scarce to begin with, will only get scarcer.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I am 40 and have a nice collection at this point. If you told me at 29 that a year later I would embark on a nearly ten year journey where I literally would check EBAY every single day for wrestling cards I would have thought you were nuts. I always loved baseball cards from the age of 5 and had my best ones displayed much to my wife's chagrin so I had the collecting gene and I also had the nostalgia. I think the fact that as a kid I couldn't afford to have the nice cards is what drove me to want nicer baseball cards in my mid 20's and the attachment to the hobby made it possible for me to go all in on something.
It is easy to buy into the concept that the lack of young collectors will be an issue longer term. It is highly likely in my view that premium items will pass from generation to generation and still be cool but I do find it reasonable to think that many niche areas and perhaps mine included will have demand issues longer term.
That said I don't care because it is 2019 and none of us really know if we will be here in 2020 and so I just want to enjoy collecting today and will worry about the long term consequences at a later date.
If someone is using cards as an investment and specifically as part of their retirement picture they need to be buying higher dollar cards and need to avoid the lower dollar stuff. Card prices have proven to be in my view just like the income distribution. The top go up at a much higher rate both in dollar terms and percentage terms generally speaking.
I am not talking about buying raw cards and nailing grades. I am talking about buying a PSA 7 that is $17. It is never going to $100 where as the top level grades can have exponential gains.
Many have read me state over and over that much of the top level collectibles values are driven by bragging rights and there are so many cards that are tied in with American history and are relics of our countries past and people shouldn't discount the fact that prices could go much higher before going lower and none of us will be able to accurately predict this.
My father sat up as a dealer at the National for many years between the late 80's and early 2000's. While not a nationally recognized name, he could sure cause a stir. His idea was always go big or go home. In the late 80's and early 90's he would have one of he biggest displays of current unopened material at the show. Cases stacked from floor to ceiling. Tables piled high with the hottest boxes. When the doors opened we would have floods of people with cash in one hand and boxes in the other. It was hard to keep up. While there was nice vintage in the display cases, those were overlooked until everyone had gotten past the frenzy. When the card market slowed down, it was beanie babies. (Yes, I know there was a huge hatred for those being at the National but it set him up very well for retirement). That was just as bad or even worse than the hot unopened stuff a few years before! Breaking down on the way to Aneheim, overheating on the way to Houston, boring Cleveland(lol), St. Louis and too many trips to Chicago to differentiate them all. He had not set up a National in more than a decade. Getting older, expenses and a slowing market ended his run. August 13th will mark 2 years since he passed. This year will be my first time at a National since Cleveland in maybe 2002-2004, I don't remember. And this will be the first time for me on the other side of the table. I look forward to seeing some of the guys he/we used to do business with and getting to see some of the product available. I wish I would have the chance to tell him about it when I get back.
@Allen said:
In an interesting turn of events it appears that Uncle Dick will indeed be setting up at The National this year.
Yeah, but like the chrisser, no one will see him
Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83. Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks. Prefer to buy in bulk.
Upon further review, this hobby is screwed. I've done a 180 and am selling everything ... hats off to every one of you gloom and doomers.
You guys are so right.
The only semi local show near me recently ...
@softparade said:
Upon further review, this hobby is screwed. I've done a 180 and am selling everything ... hats off to every one of you gloom and doomers.
You guys are so right.
The only semi local show near me recently ...
To answer a question, I put about 80% of my retirement funds into 87 topps baseball wax boxes.
Just kidding, but what's wrong with cards as an investment?
I bought a 2017 Mahomes prizm green scope auto PSA 10 for $232 about a year ago and PWCC just sold
it for $3,038, even subtracting the 10% fee I think it was a decent one year investment.
I wouldn't count on National attendance as being representative. It also doesn't help that just getting to and attending the National by itself can be a relatively expensive undertaking.
Exactly
2 tanks of gas for the 5 hours each way and driving around town
3 nights at the Hampton Inn, 10 minutes away
Free breakfast at the hotel but lunch at the National and Dinners at a decent restaurant
$80 each day for the family to get in x2 days
Roughly $1000 already and I have not bought anything yet and my wife and teen daughters have not gone shopping yet either.
That is why I have only gone to the National in Cleveland. We also have a partial season ticket plan 500 miles from home in Baltimore, luckily we have done well, but the National is not in our budget every year.
The organizers need to have a family rate and reduced price for ladies. Both of who were not seen in great numbers, even on Saturday last year. Maybe a nice lounge with GOOD WIFI for the ladies too....
@softparade said:
Upon further review, this hobby is screwed. I've done a 180 and am selling everything ... hats off to every one of you gloom and doomers.
You guys are so right.
The only semi local show near me recently ...
@softparade said:
Upon further review, this hobby is screwed. I've done a 180 and am selling everything ... hats off to every one of you gloom and doomers.
You guys are so right.
The only semi local show near me recently ...
@softparade said:
Upon further review, this hobby is screwed. I've done a 180 and am selling everything ... hats off to every one of you gloom and doomers.
You guys are so right.
The only semi local show near me recently ...
LOL! Looks like the craft room at my mom's assisted living community.
The lady on the bottom right is a friends Grandmother.....rumor has it she and the hubby showed up expecting a Bawble Bird Call Show and should not be counted among the attendance as they hightailed it out right quick!
In all seriousness it is worth mentioning that long time dealer Wayne Johnson will not be at The National as he passed away this winter. I believe his family will be setting up and continuing the legacy.
@CrissCriss said:
I’ve told you bros multiple times to meet me at Gibson’s. I will be announcing times that I’ll be there later. I even told Keith that I would review his cards to see whether they will bump.
@softparade said:
Upon further review, this hobby is screwed. I've done a 180 and am selling everything ... hats off to every one of you gloom and doomers.
You guys are so right.
The only semi local show near me recently ...
The gentleman in the middle is chasing after the lady to the right, she just walked off with his box of 1971 vintage Topps box.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
My son is 17 and is an avid collector. One of my friends I sub his son is 12 and collects as well. I have another friend that has 2 stepsons that collect. There are a million guys in their 20s that collect as well. Go onto the FB group pages. Hobby is healthy as it has ever been In my opinion.
I should know timeline stuff like this, but I'm gonna ask. If Topps knew on December 12 of 1975 that Moret was now a brave, why make him on a Boston card for the 1976 set? I'm sure the answer is that the printing was done before December 12th of 1975 (at least I hope so or they look even worse), but when were the 1976 cards available in stores? February? March? Earlier than February? Also, when they added the traded cards to the sheets at a later printing (assuming thats what they did and not just print up traded sheets) did they remove the original cards of the traded guys, thus making them short prints?
@nam812 said:
I should know timeline stuff like this, but I'm gonna ask. If Topps knew on December 12 of 1975 that Moret was now a brave, why make him on a Boston card for the 1976 set? I'm sure the answer is that the printing was done before December 12th of 1975 (at least I hope so or they look even worse), but when were the 1976 cards available in stores? February? March? Earlier than February? Also, when they added the traded cards to the sheets at a later printing (assuming thats what they did and not just print up traded sheets) did they remove the original cards of the traded guys, thus making them short prints?
Printing and packaging for the next year definitely was happening in autumn. Also, Topps didn’t give a crap about your main question until Fleer & Donruss hit the scene.
The idea of traded cards made more sense when cards were still being released in series. Otherwise it would seem odd for both Nolan Ryan and Jim Fregosi to appears as Angels in the 1972 set.
After a little internet research it definitely looks like the ‘76 traded cards were released at the same time as the rest of the set. It appears that there are six uncut sheets for this set.
Four of them have 132 distinct cards from the normal set. The other two have 66 cards from the regular set (six rows) and three repeats of half the traded set making up the other six rows.
The other strange thing is the sheet with Rose (and possibly other of the non-traded sheets as well) seem to appear in two different versions, with the two blocks of six rows interchanged. Perhaps a side A/side B thing?
This thread has gone from " who's going to the Natty" to doom and gloom
about the future of our hobby to all of a sudden 1976 Topps Traded cards
and how they came to be. Just to add to the confusion, Topps usually started
printing cards for the next year set in the middle of November. Release of
the cards was usually between Spring training and Opening Day.
@Tibor said:
This thread has gone from " who's going to the Natty" to doom and gloom
about the future of our hobby to all of a sudden 1976 Topps Traded cards
and how they came to be. Just to add to the confusion, Topps usually started
printing cards for the next year set in the middle of November. Release of
the cards was usually between Spring training and Opening Day.
I moved the stuff about traded cards to its own thread. And new cards absolutely came out in late January during the 1970s. I can’t remember my children’s names but I am 100% certain of this.
@Tibor said:
This thread has gone from " who's going to the Natty" to doom and gloom
about the future of our hobby to all of a sudden 1976 Topps Traded cards
and how they came to be. Just to add to the confusion, Topps usually started
printing cards for the next year set in the middle of November. Release of
the cards was usually between Spring training and Opening Day.
I moved the stuff about traded cards to its own thread. And new cards absolutely came out in late January during the 1970s. I can’t remember my children’s names but I am 100% certain of this.
Yes, my experience in the 80s was that by the third week of January, we would start going to Sam's Wholesale Club daily in order to catch the first cases of the year of Topps baseball. The grocery stores, drug stores, and gas stations would all have wax boxes in their candy displays shortly after that. All well before players reported to spring training.
Comments
The mistake you guys are making is to think a gradual decline will happen without any change in your desire to buy. The decline will be happening because, eventually, you and your contemporaries will be aging, retiring, and selling. And the buying pool will continue to contract. It’s not the kind of decline you’ll notice in real time.
This is how much millennials love cards.
https://nypost.com/2019/07/10/app-to-let-fans-can-buy-minority-shares-of-3m-honus-wagner-baseball-card/
Personally, I couldn't buy into a share of a card. It's either the whole taco, or nothing. Everyone is different though.
I'm sorry; what does any of this have to do with dealers no longer doing the nasty?
Well, expressing certainty about any financial market's future is always a mistake. Folks were playing the no kids card when much of today's current bowman chrome market was between the ages of 10-15 or younger, and prospect cards are selling for far more than they ever did even if you include inflation. In 2005 no one knew where the market would be in 2019 and no one here knows where it will be in 2035 regardless of what their gut tells them.
I agree that if cards decline it will be a gradual slide that likely starts with prices remaining relatively stable for a period of time and then starting to gradually slip. Certain segments will fall faster and more than others.
I would welcome a rapid crash but unless something happens that makes collecting impossible (some sort of cataclysmic disaster) - I doubt to see one.
I do believe that collectors of everything trend younger and older with a smaller segment in between. Most have disposable income in your youth and then again when when they mature in their career. I already own dozens of cards I never would have dreamed I could as a kid.
Some of us have the collector gene - my dad has it, my brother has it - my very young nephews seem to have it. My nephews may collect cards maybe something else but betting they collect something.
My dad will almost surely pass with his coin collection intact. My brother and I will likely keep a few to remember his collection by and then sell the rest and pump it into cards. I will have no idea if what we get is more than or less than what he paid over the years. Guessing some will be up and some will be down. The cards I buy from that will be very special to me because they will make me think of him.
So as those of us with the strongest gene to collect pass away, our passion may remain and be converted into something else. The luckiest of us will enjoy our hobby until the end. I truly hope to enjoy a time in the hobby when prices start declining. If I die before the decline I will never know and my heirs will get more. If I live into it I will have a collection that includes some incredible cards I never thought I would own.
Everybody have a refreshment.
Agree on this count. The thrill of scoring the big hit via pack breaking will keep unopened product in demand. In the past, such premiums usually meant people hoarding the packs with no plans on ever opening them, but with the advent of pack breaking that supply of unopened, always scarce to begin with, will only get scarcer.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I am 40 and have a nice collection at this point. If you told me at 29 that a year later I would embark on a nearly ten year journey where I literally would check EBAY every single day for wrestling cards I would have thought you were nuts. I always loved baseball cards from the age of 5 and had my best ones displayed much to my wife's chagrin so I had the collecting gene and I also had the nostalgia. I think the fact that as a kid I couldn't afford to have the nice cards is what drove me to want nicer baseball cards in my mid 20's and the attachment to the hobby made it possible for me to go all in on something.
It is easy to buy into the concept that the lack of young collectors will be an issue longer term. It is highly likely in my view that premium items will pass from generation to generation and still be cool but I do find it reasonable to think that many niche areas and perhaps mine included will have demand issues longer term.
That said I don't care because it is 2019 and none of us really know if we will be here in 2020 and so I just want to enjoy collecting today and will worry about the long term consequences at a later date.
If someone is using cards as an investment and specifically as part of their retirement picture they need to be buying higher dollar cards and need to avoid the lower dollar stuff. Card prices have proven to be in my view just like the income distribution. The top go up at a much higher rate both in dollar terms and percentage terms generally speaking.
I am not talking about buying raw cards and nailing grades. I am talking about buying a PSA 7 that is $17. It is never going to $100 where as the top level grades can have exponential gains.
Many have read me state over and over that much of the top level collectibles values are driven by bragging rights and there are so many cards that are tied in with American history and are relics of our countries past and people shouldn't discount the fact that prices could go much higher before going lower and none of us will be able to accurately predict this.
Just enjoy collecting and go from there.
'Nuff said.
Andy
No man, there is never ‘Nuff said. The difference of opinions and the passion for them drive quality debate.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Uncle Dick would be proud of this post about him not doing The National.
My father sat up as a dealer at the National for many years between the late 80's and early 2000's. While not a nationally recognized name, he could sure cause a stir. His idea was always go big or go home. In the late 80's and early 90's he would have one of he biggest displays of current unopened material at the show. Cases stacked from floor to ceiling. Tables piled high with the hottest boxes. When the doors opened we would have floods of people with cash in one hand and boxes in the other. It was hard to keep up. While there was nice vintage in the display cases, those were overlooked until everyone had gotten past the frenzy. When the card market slowed down, it was beanie babies. (Yes, I know there was a huge hatred for those being at the National but it set him up very well for retirement). That was just as bad or even worse than the hot unopened stuff a few years before! Breaking down on the way to Aneheim, overheating on the way to Houston, boring Cleveland(lol), St. Louis and too many trips to Chicago to differentiate them all. He had not set up a National in more than a decade. Getting older, expenses and a slowing market ended his run. August 13th will mark 2 years since he passed. This year will be my first time at a National since Cleveland in maybe 2002-2004, I don't remember. And this will be the first time for me on the other side of the table. I look forward to seeing some of the guys he/we used to do business with and getting to see some of the product available. I wish I would have the chance to tell him about it when I get back.
In an interesting turn of events it appears that Uncle Dick will indeed be setting up at The National this year.
Hopefully the trimmers
Yeah, but like the chrisser, no one will see him
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Talked to Uncle Dick in Chantilly this morning, he will be at the National in two weeks
Glad to hear that Uncle Dick from Georgia Music will be attending.
A true Southern Gentleman!!
Upon further review, this hobby is screwed. I've done a 180 and am selling everything ... hats off to every one of you gloom and doomers.
You guys are so right.
The only semi local show near me recently ...
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Yawn. Copy cats
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Wish I was cool enough to call it the Natty.
To answer a question, I put about 80% of my retirement funds into 87 topps baseball wax boxes.
Just kidding, but what's wrong with cards as an investment?
I bought a 2017 Mahomes prizm green scope auto PSA 10 for $232 about a year ago and PWCC just sold
it for $3,038, even subtracting the 10% fee I think it was a decent one year investment.
Exactly
Roughly $1000 already and I have not bought anything yet and my wife and teen daughters have not gone shopping yet either.
That is why I have only gone to the National in Cleveland. We also have a partial season ticket plan 500 miles from home in Baltimore, luckily we have done well, but the National is not in our budget every year.
The organizers need to have a family rate and reduced price for ladies. Both of who were not seen in great numbers, even on Saturday last year. Maybe a nice lounge with GOOD WIFI for the ladies too....
Did someone say “cats”?
That's really good lighting for a card show. I've been to some where you had to strain your eyes to see the dealer standing across from you.
Thats a young looking group
LOL! Looks like the craft room at my mom's assisted living community.
The lady on the bottom right is a friends Grandmother.....rumor has it she and the hubby showed up expecting a Bawble Bird Call Show and should not be counted among the attendance as they hightailed it out right quick!
Website
Ebay Store
Welcome to Sunny Pastures, site of the 2024 National.
In all seriousness it is worth mentioning that long time dealer Wayne Johnson will not be at The National as he passed away this winter. I believe his family will be setting up and continuing the legacy.
Do they not let you in the VIP lounge anymore?
The gentleman in the middle is chasing after the lady to the right, she just walked off with his box of 1971 vintage Topps box.
My son is 17 and is an avid collector. One of my friends I sub his son is 12 and collects as well. I have another friend that has 2 stepsons that collect. There are a million guys in their 20s that collect as well. Go onto the FB group pages. Hobby is healthy as it has ever been In my opinion.
Case in point: I was going through some of my ‘76s and got very excited about the quality of my Rogelio Morets, lol..
I should know timeline stuff like this, but I'm gonna ask. If Topps knew on December 12 of 1975 that Moret was now a brave, why make him on a Boston card for the 1976 set? I'm sure the answer is that the printing was done before December 12th of 1975 (at least I hope so or they look even worse), but when were the 1976 cards available in stores? February? March? Earlier than February? Also, when they added the traded cards to the sheets at a later printing (assuming thats what they did and not just print up traded sheets) did they remove the original cards of the traded guys, thus making them short prints?
Printing and packaging for the next year definitely was happening in autumn. Also, Topps didn’t give a crap about your main question until Fleer & Donruss hit the scene.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
My recollection is the new cards were always available at the end of January.
The idea of traded cards made more sense when cards were still being released in series. Otherwise it would seem odd for both Nolan Ryan and Jim Fregosi to appears as Angels in the 1972 set.
And they did just print up traded sheets. I don’t think the original cards were ever pulled.
Wow, this is strange. It looks like in 1976 the Traded cards were part of normal sheets. I don’t really understand how that would have worked.
After a little internet research it definitely looks like the ‘76 traded cards were released at the same time as the rest of the set. It appears that there are six uncut sheets for this set.
Four of them have 132 distinct cards from the normal set. The other two have 66 cards from the regular set (six rows) and three repeats of half the traded set making up the other six rows.
The other strange thing is the sheet with Rose (and possibly other of the non-traded sheets as well) seem to appear in two different versions, with the two blocks of six rows interchanged. Perhaps a side A/side B thing?
...and here’s a player appearing on the same sheet as his traded card....
This thread has gone from " who's going to the Natty" to doom and gloom
about the future of our hobby to all of a sudden 1976 Topps Traded cards
and how they came to be. Just to add to the confusion, Topps usually started
printing cards for the next year set in the middle of November. Release of
the cards was usually between Spring training and Opening Day.
I moved the stuff about traded cards to its own thread. And new cards absolutely came out in late January during the 1970s. I can’t remember my children’s names but I am 100% certain of this.
Yes, my experience in the 80s was that by the third week of January, we would start going to Sam's Wholesale Club daily in order to catch the first cases of the year of Topps baseball. The grocery stores, drug stores, and gas stations would all have wax boxes in their candy displays shortly after that. All well before players reported to spring training.
I live in N.E. Tenn. I stand by my statement. In the early 80's
we started to get them in mid January.