@Baley said:
That's a great point CCGGG, I find myself thinking, "I'm not buying (rare slabbed and stickered ) coins at those prices", and at the same time, "Not selling nice but raw common coins at these prices!"
So I'm stuck, and not actively collecting at all. The need to ship coins to a slabber, and then a stickerer, to get what they're "worth", and then spend almost all of the extra premium on fees, postage, insurance, plus the time and aggravation, is a real turn off
It’s an interesting conundrum. I wonder how many collectors are in a similar position?
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
The market is robust in what I collect. Adding new coins has been a real challenge the past 3 or so years. If anything it’s made me an even pickier buyer. I’m pretty picky to begin with.
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
WCC ---i understand you collect non US coins. what do you collect ? also, do you find any series of US coins rare ?
@Baley said:
That's a great point CCGGG, I find myself thinking, "I'm not buying (rare slabbed and stickered ) coins at those prices", and at the same time, "Not selling nice but raw common coins at these prices!"
So I'm stuck, and not actively collecting at all. The need to ship coins to a slabber, and then a stickerer, to get what they're "worth", and then spend almost all of the extra premium on fees, postage, insurance, plus the time and aggravation, is a real turn off
It’s an interesting conundrum. I wonder how many collectors are in a similar position?
I have a noticeable number of duplicates in a non-US series. Some of the coins are high quality while others are "high quality" but only for the series or coin. It is a thinly collected series which is concurrently much scarcer and much cheaper than comparable US coinage.
Mostly, I intentionally bought the duplicates. I'm not "stuck" in it because of change in market value, though the coins might realize less than I paid. I won't sell it because the proceeds won't really make any financial difference to me and I can't buy other coins for the same price that I like as much anyway. The effect of this is that there is less supply for the few others who might also want to collect it.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
WCC ---i understand you collect non US coins. what do you collect ? also, do you find any series of US coins rare ?
Now, exclusively pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R mostly from Peru but also Bolivia and Guatemala if I can find any decent coin at a "reasonable" price within my budget. I also have holdings of Spanish colonial lion and castle quarter real (one is my avatar coin which is a Mexico 1813 PCGS MS-66), Bolivia republic decimals, South Africa Union and a few other odds and ends.
On US series rarity, I'd consider the Liberty QE, half eagle and eagle series to contain a lot of rare or very scarce dates. Same for many (though not all) early gold such as the Capped Head QE and half eagle. Many liberty seated dates are also quite scarce.
The others, mostly either common or with a low number of scarce to rare coins. As an example, I consider the 1802 very scarce rare, depending upon how many actually exist. Coin Facts claim around 35 yet I counted only 14 in the population data and this excludes potential duplicates. Conversely, I don't consider very many other early federal issues to be scarce. I make exceptions to consider the number of "decent" survivors where a disproportionate number or percentage are in very low quality but not otherwise.
There also many colonials and territorial gold, if that is included in your definition of a US coin. Patterns? Well, most are "made rare" so I don't subscribe any significance to it.
@keets said: I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
I agree with Keets about the BROADER market. Anyone talking about pockets of strength is talking about one healthy tree in a dying forest. There are far more pockets of weakness than strength. And you can look down your nose at that weakness and ascribe it to widgets or whatever, but the fact is that most of the breadth of the market is widgets. 5 figure coins is a tiny segment (by volume) of the broader market.
@keets said: I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
I agree with Keets about the BROADER market. Anyone talking about pockets of strength is talking about one healthy tree in a dying forest. There are far more pockets of weakness than strength. And you can look down your nose at that weakness and ascribe it to widgets or whatever, but the fact is that most of the breadth of the market is widgets. 5 figure coins is a tiny segment (by volume) of the broader market.
Most people have difficulty seeing or believing an outcome contrary to their personal interest and personal preference. In coin collecting, that's why (predominantly US) collectors invent rarity where it doesn't exist. They also want to believe that other collectors and on occasion future prospective collectors from the current non-collecting public find the coins they collect as interesting and compelling as they do so that someone will be there to buy their collection at a profit.
What I am describing is particularly evident in five figure and above US coinage. It should be self evident that a larger pool of current "widget" collectors increases the probability that more of these people will become the potential buyer of the more expensive coinage in the future. Weakness in the current market for "widgets" is a problem for the future seller of the more expensive coins because most collectors don't really like collecting enough to stick with it when they are losing money.
Here is what I know firsthand. The coins I bought and sold 10-15 years back, always did well. I bought a coin, I sold a coin for the same or more than I paid usually.
Now, here is what I know: I buy a coin, I sell a coin for less (not even money) everytime, all the time, without exceptions.
I personally believe that early american silver is much tougher and less expensive than early american gold in high grade. What do others think? I'm not suggesting one is better than the other.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
WCC ---i understand you collect non US coins. what do you collect ? also, do you find any series of US coins rare ?
Now, exclusively pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R mostly from Peru but also Bolivia and Guatemala if I can find any decent coin at a "reasonable" price within my budget. I also have holdings of Spanish colonial lion and castle quarter real (one is my avatar coin which is a Mexico 1813 PCGS MS-66), Bolivia republic decimals, South Africa Union and a few other odds and ends.
On US series rarity, I'd consider the Liberty QE, half eagle and eagle series to contain a lot of rare or very scarce dates. Same for many (though not all) early gold such as the Capped Head QE and half eagle. Many liberty seated dates are also quite scarce.
The others, mostly either common or with a low number of scarce to rare coins. As an example, I consider the 1802 very scarce rare, depending upon how many actually exist. Coin Facts claim around 35 yet I counted only 14 in the population data and this excludes potential duplicates. Conversely, I don't consider very many other early federal issues to be scarce. I make exceptions to consider the number of "decent" survivors where a disproportionate number or percentage are in very low quality but not otherwise.
There also many colonials and territorial gold, if that is included in your definition of a US coin. Patterns? Well, most are "made rare" so I don't subscribe any significance to it.
I know a little about liberty quarter eagles. Couple years ago I sold a group called the Kentucky collection on Doug Winter's site. You can see the coins I sold and Doug also wrote a blog about my collection that you can read on his site. Although I still collect liberty quarter eagles, I have moved on to some other series that are just as challenging.
@GoBust said:
I personally believe that early american silver is much tougher and less expensive than early american gold in high grade. What do others think? I'm not suggesting one is better than the other.
To my knowledge, early gold has always been more expensive and sometimes a lot more expensive, with a few silver and copper coins as exceptions. I don't know whether the relative prices have widened or shrunk over time, as I haven't done the necessary research.
As for the quality, I would expect early gold to be better since it didn't circulate as much due to the face value, but that might not translate to the standards in use today.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
WCC ---i understand you collect non US coins. what do you collect ? also, do you find any series of US coins rare ?
Now, exclusively pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R mostly from Peru but also Bolivia and Guatemala if I can find any decent coin at a "reasonable" price within my budget. I also have holdings of Spanish colonial lion and castle quarter real (one is my avatar coin which is a Mexico 1813 PCGS MS-66), Bolivia republic decimals, South Africa Union and a few other odds and ends.
On US series rarity, I'd consider the Liberty QE, half eagle and eagle series to contain a lot of rare or very scarce dates. Same for many (though not all) early gold such as the Capped Head QE and half eagle. Many liberty seated dates are also quite scarce.
The others, mostly either common or with a low number of scarce to rare coins. As an example, I consider the 1802 very scarce rare, depending upon how many actually exist. Coin Facts claim around 35 yet I counted only 14 in the population data and this excludes potential duplicates. Conversely, I don't consider very many other early federal issues to be scarce. I make exceptions to consider the number of "decent" survivors where a disproportionate number or percentage are in very low quality but not otherwise.
There also many colonials and territorial gold, if that is included in your definition of a US coin. Patterns? Well, most are "made rare" so I don't subscribe any significance to it.
I know a little about liberty quarter eagles. Couple years ago I sold a group called the Kentucky collection on Doug Winter's site. You can see the coins I sold and Doug also wrote a blog about my collection that you can read on his site. Although I still collect liberty quarter eagles, I have moved on to some other series that are just as challenging.
Yes, I remember reading about your collection here before I joined this site. I agree it's a tough series because many date/MM combinations have low mintages, MM collecting was not widely practiced, geographic limitations and collectors probably didn't bother to save it because it seemingly went on forever. 68 years is a long time for a series.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
WCC ---i understand you collect non US coins. what do you collect ? also, do you find any series of US coins rare ?
Now, exclusively pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R mostly from Peru but also Bolivia and Guatemala if I can find any decent coin at a "reasonable" price within my budget. I also have holdings of Spanish colonial lion and castle quarter real (one is my avatar coin which is a Mexico 1813 PCGS MS-66), Bolivia republic decimals, South Africa Union and a few other odds and ends.
On US series rarity, I'd consider the Liberty QE, half eagle and eagle series to contain a lot of rare or very scarce dates. Same for many (though not all) early gold such as the Capped Head QE and half eagle. Many liberty seated dates are also quite scarce.
The others, mostly either common or with a low number of scarce to rare coins. As an example, I consider the 1802 very scarce rare, depending upon how many actually exist. Coin Facts claim around 35 yet I counted only 14 in the population data and this excludes potential duplicates. Conversely, I don't consider very many other early federal issues to be scarce. I make exceptions to consider the number of "decent" survivors where a disproportionate number or percentage are in very low quality but not otherwise.
There also many colonials and territorial gold, if that is included in your definition of a US coin. Patterns? Well, most are "made rare" so I don't subscribe any significance to it.
I know a little about liberty quarter eagles. Couple years ago I sold a group called the Kentucky collection on Doug Winter's site. You can see the coins I sold and Doug also wrote a blog about my collection that you can read on his site. Although I still collect liberty quarter eagles, I have moved on to some other series that are just as challenging.
Yes, I remember reading about your collection here before I joined this site. I agree it's a tough series because many date/MM combinations have low mintages, MM collecting was not widely practiced, geographic limitations and collectors probably didn't bother to save it because it seemingly went on forever. 68 years is a long time for a series.
One advantage to collecting a long series is that you almost never "have" to have a coin. If a coin I need is offered at an unreasonable price, there are always other coins I need. There are dozens of coins in the liberty quarter eagle series that are key or semi key dates.
@blitzdude said:
All one needs to do is look greysheet to see where the market is trending. Been going south the past several years and nothing suggests that will change anytime soon. It's a buyers market. Enjoy the gift my fellow collectors, stackers and hoarders.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
WCC ---i understand you collect non US coins. what do you collect ? also, do you find any series of US coins rare ?
Now, exclusively pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R mostly from Peru but also Bolivia and Guatemala if I can find any decent coin at a "reasonable" price within my budget. I also have holdings of Spanish colonial lion and castle quarter real (one is my avatar coin which is a Mexico 1813 PCGS MS-66), Bolivia republic decimals, South Africa Union and a few other odds and ends.
On US series rarity, I'd consider the Liberty QE, half eagle and eagle series to contain a lot of rare or very scarce dates. Same for many (though not all) early gold such as the Capped Head QE and half eagle. Many liberty seated dates are also quite scarce.
The others, mostly either common or with a low number of scarce to rare coins. As an example, I consider the 1802 very scarce rare, depending upon how many actually exist. Coin Facts claim around 35 yet I counted only 14 in the population data and this excludes potential duplicates. Conversely, I don't consider very many other early federal issues to be scarce. I make exceptions to consider the number of "decent" survivors where a disproportionate number or percentage are in very low quality but not otherwise.
There also many colonials and territorial gold, if that is included in your definition of a US coin. Patterns? Well, most are "made rare" so I don't subscribe any significance to it.
I know a little about liberty quarter eagles. Couple years ago I sold a group called the Kentucky collection on Doug Winter's site. You can see the coins I sold and Doug also wrote a blog about my collection that you can read on his site. Although I still collect liberty quarter eagles, I have moved on to some other series that are just as challenging.
Yes, I remember reading about your collection here before I joined this site. I agree it's a tough series because many date/MM combinations have low mintages, MM collecting was not widely practiced, geographic limitations and collectors probably didn't bother to save it because it seemingly went on forever. 68 years is a long time for a series.
One advantage to collecting a long series is that you almost never "have" to have a coin. If a coin I need is offered at an unreasonable price, there are always other coins I need. There are dozens of coins in the liberty quarter eagle series that are key or semi key dates.
True.
Most of the coins in my primary series are key or at least semi-key under US criteria. I have seen more of it lately but due to a combination of the scarcity and much lower price level, a collector cannot go out and buy any of it whenever they want to do so, much less in a specific quality. The US series I use as a basis of comparison is Liberty Seated, except for the Seated versus pillar dollar. So I compare the half real to the half dime, real to dime and so forth. In some instances, the pillar mintages are higher but for comparable mintage, my estimate is that this coinage is usually scarcer by a noticeable or even substantial margin. Looking at Coin Facts, most Seated date/MM denomination combinations have multiples in high quality and often even in elite quality. Many of the pillar dates appear to have zero high quality examples and the number of average circulated examples is also very low.
When it's considered that gold and silver are so weak and the demographic change is well underway the market is holding up better than I might have predicted.
But the absolute number of collectors will bottom soon if it hasn't already and metals prices will soar.
For what I collect (early quarter eagles), the market is very strong for high quality pieces which are few and far between. CAC is almost a must unless it’s a super rarity. Prices within the same grade can be enormous > 50% depending on quality —> bifurcated market.
It’s the new normal. Or maybe it has always been this way for the most astute collectors and with CAC it has become a general thing.
For me, it’s a sellers market!
@earlyAurum said:
For what I collect (early quarter eagles), the market is very strong for high quality pieces which are few and far between. CAC is almost a must unless it’s a super rarity. Prices within the same grade can be enormous > 50% depending on quality —> bifurcated market.
It’s the new normal. Or maybe it has always been this way for the most astute collectors and with CAC it has become a general thing.
For me, it’s a sellers market!
Regarding the 50% difference in price for the same grade, does the “same grade” include or not include CAC?
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers.
I don't see how a run up (even double or triple) in silver spot is going to affect the price of silver coins that are currently selling for over a $1000 and even more so for those selling for 10's of thousand.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers.
I don't see how a run up (even double or triple) in silver spot is going to affect the price of silver coins that are currently selling for over a $1000 and even more so for those selling for 10's of thousand.
It will support prices on the low end and potentially flipping new ultra moderns. If this happens, in the past people making money from those have directed funds to more expensive coins.
@PhilLynott said:
Some people just prefer doom and gloom over smooth sailing. My mom is one of those people she prefers to have things to complain about lol
Pulling up that DW article now thanks for the heads up.
Strong month here as well. Plenty of collectors though are buried in coins that have dropped by a third to three quarters of their value in the last handful of years. That cannot be overlooked.
I know a guy that doesn't code or track what he paid for a coin, because he says, "I can only sell it for what it's worth." Saves him a lot of anguish.
@keets said: I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
And that's true. Also, note that it is unsaid that coins will end up out of favor forever. It does seem to me that if you can find them to your liking now is a time to be buying.
@keets said: I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
And that's true. Also, note that it is unsaid that coins will end up out of favor forever. It does seem to me that if you can find them to your liking now is a time to be buying.
To me it seems like coins are becoming more like the exotic car market.
Depreciation: Many cars depreciate. On exotic car forums, people talk about buying new $400k cars and having them lose say $200k over a few years, so the idea is that you are enjoying your money, not trying to make money. This would be similar to enjoying coins as they depreciate now.
Appreciation: A few cars do appreciate, typically hypercars in the $1M and above range, but most enthusiasts cannot afford that range and there just aren't many cars there so it may be hard to buy.
Obsolescence: Finally, with the coming legislation for all electric cars in some countries, the writing is on the wall that in the future, gasoline cars may be obsolete.
It is unfortunate that it seems like it is getting harder and harder for the vast majority of coins to appreciate. That may have something to do with the fact it's getting harder and harder for the vast majority of people to have more disposable income. I was just in another conversation over the weekend arguing for better, or maintaining past, income distribution to the middle class, but don't think I made much progress convincing my friend.
@earlyAurum said:
For what I collect (early quarter eagles), the market is very strong for high quality pieces which are few and far between. CAC is almost a must unless it’s a super rarity. Prices within the same grade can be enormous > 50% depending on quality —> bifurcated market.
It’s the new normal. Or maybe it has always been this way for the most astute collectors and with CAC it has become a general thing.
For me, it’s a sellers market!
Regarding the 50% difference in price for the same grade, does the “same grade” include or not include CAC?
@earlyAurum said:
For what I collect (early quarter eagles), the market is very strong for high quality pieces which are few and far between. CAC is almost a must unless it’s a super rarity. Prices within the same grade can be enormous > 50% depending on quality —> bifurcated market.
It’s the new normal. Or maybe it has always been this way for the most astute collectors and with CAC it has become a general thing.
For me, it’s a sellers market!
Regarding the 50% difference in price for the same grade, does the “same grade” include or not include CAC?
CAC for the extreme cases.
Thanks. It's good to note that because many people consider CAC part of the overall grade now. It's always listed by dealers and auction houses along with the TPG grade.
@CCGGG said:
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers.
I don't see how a run up (even double or triple) in silver spot is going to affect the price of silver coins that are currently selling for over a $1000 and even more so for those selling for 10's of thousand.
Maybe or maybe not. I have never bought high grade Morgan dollars or US pre-1933 gold. However, it is my understanding that a noticeable percentage of bigger budget buyers (especially new buyers) during metal bull markets do so not really for collecting, but as a substitute for other asset classes and bullion.
However, the main reason it would not is almost certainly due to the part of my reply you did not quote. A high grade expensive but actually common coin is not that interesting as a collectible, except when the buyer is making money or at least not losing much of it. This is an inference but this coinage certainly seems more interesting that owning an equivalent value in silver bullion, though I think at current prices I expect it to be less profitable.
No - numismatic value is the non bullion based market value of a coin. Market Value is defined what the coins are trading for in the market place based on TPG, CW Trends, CPG, NN Coin Market, Dealer Price List, etc. There are 3 stats I have available on my coins: Cost, Bid, MV, and in many cases auction.
Some keep it simple and economical - greysheet,TPG (free), and Red Book.
I do believe income challenges will keep many out of coin collecting and force many liquidate - ASE and material below $50 may be exception. Paying off cc debt yields better return than coins. The bids have been stagnant or sliding south for sometime, the slide in the dollar market a major concern.
@keets said: I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
And that's true. Also, note that it is unsaid that coins will end up out of favor forever. It does seem to me that if you can find them to your liking now is a time to be buying.
To me it seems like coins are becoming more like the exotic car market.
Depreciation: Many cars depreciate. On exotic car forums, people talk about buying new $400k cars and having them lose say $200k over a few years, so the idea is that you are enjoying your money, not trying to make money. This would be similar to enjoying coins as they depreciate now.
Appreciation: A few cars do appreciate, typically hypercars in the $1M and above range, but most enthusiasts cannot afford that range and there just aren't many cars there so it may be hard to buy.
Obsolescence: Finally, with the coming legislation for all electric cars in some countries, the writing is on the wall that in the future, gasoline cars may be obsolete.
It is unfortunate that it seems like it is getting harder and harder for the vast majority of coins to appreciate. That may have something to do with the fact it's getting harder and harder for the vast majority of people to have more disposable income. I was just in another conversation over the weekend arguing for better, or maintaining past, income distribution to the middle class, but don't think I made much progress convincing my friend.
What you are describing is not going to turn the coin market around, except to the extent it applies to the collector population. It is more relevant in the United States than either most or everywhere else because of the participation rate and the inflated price level of US coinage. But otherwise, there is no evidence that the general public desires increasing affluence so that they can spend any of it on coins.
The non-collector overwhelmingly has no aspiration to buy the coins typically described on this forum either, as there is no parallel with the antique or classic car example you provided. An antique car has utility and is a status symbol at some level. Coins have zero utility and aren't a status symbol to anyone, except to other collectors who have an inflated opinion of what they own or like.
Most expensive coins usually sit in a SDB. However, the vast majority of non-collectors are not going to be impressed with the coins discussed here, certainly not if they actually understand how the pricing structure works in the United States.
I see sentiments such as yours intermittently. If it really was income and wealth distribution, then the participation rate for women and minorities would be much higher in the United States. I don't know exactly what it is for these groups but it should be evident that economics doesn't explain the lack of interest by these groups relative to the traditional collector base.
@keets said: I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
And that's true. Also, note that it is unsaid that coins will end up out of favor forever. It does seem to me that if you can find them to your liking now is a time to be buying.
To me it seems like coins are becoming more like the exotic car market.
Depreciation: Many cars depreciate. On exotic car forums, people talk about buying new $400k cars and having them lose say $200k over a few years, so the idea is that you are enjoying your money, not trying to make money. This would be similar to enjoying coins as they depreciate now.
Appreciation: A few cars do appreciate, typically hypercars in the $1M and above range, but most enthusiasts cannot afford that range and there just aren't many cars there so it may be hard to buy.
Obsolescence: Finally, with the coming legislation for all electric cars in some countries, the writing is on the wall that in the future, gasoline cars may be obsolete.
It is unfortunate that it seems like it is getting harder and harder for the vast majority of coins to appreciate. That may have something to do with the fact it's getting harder and harder for the vast majority of people to have more disposable income. I was just in another conversation over the weekend arguing for better, or maintaining past, income distribution to the middle class, but don't think I made much progress convincing my friend.
What you are describing is not going to turn the coin market around, except to the extent it applies to the collector population. It is more relevant in the United States than either most or everywhere else because of the participation rate and the inflated price level of US coinage. But otherwise, there is no evidence that the general public desires increasing affluence so that they can spend any of it on coins.
The non-collector overwhelmingly has no aspiration to buy the coins typically described on this forum either, as there is no parallel with the antique or classic car example you provided. An antique car has utility and is a status symbol at some level. Coins have zero utility and aren't a status symbol to anyone, except to other collectors who have an inflated opinion of what they own or like.
Most expensive coins usually sit in a SDB. However, the vast majority of non-collectors are not going to be impressed with the coins discussed here, certainly not if they actually understand how the pricing structure works in the United States.
I see sentiments such as yours intermittently. If it really was income and wealth distribution, then the participation rate for women and minorities would be much higher in the United States. I don't know exactly what it is for these groups but it should be evident that economics doesn't explain the lack of interest by these groups relative to the traditional collector base.
The idea with the exotic car comparison is to get people thinking about enjoying depreciating assets. There seems to be a big concern here are prices of coins declining, but lots of people enjoy things that decline in prices. A shift in thinking can get more people thinking about enjoying their coins than the sky is falling.
Most expensive coins may sit in SDBs, but we share photos of them here so it's not like the coins aren't shared. I'm guessing many of the people posting on this and other forums, along with the YNs on Instagram, enjoy sharing their coins.
Economics doesn't explain everything, but it does explains part of it, especially for people who participated in the boom times before the Great Recession.
@keets said: I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
And that's true. Also, note that it is unsaid that coins will end up out of favor forever. It does seem to me that if you can find them to your liking now is a time to be buying.
To me it seems like coins are becoming more like the exotic car market.
Depreciation: Many cars depreciate. On exotic car forums, people talk about buying new $400k cars and having them lose say $200k over a few years, so the idea is that you are enjoying your money, not trying to make money. This would be similar to enjoying coins as they depreciate now.
Appreciation: A few cars do appreciate, typically hypercars in the $1M and above range, but most enthusiasts cannot afford that range and there just aren't many cars there so it may be hard to buy.
Obsolescence: Finally, with the coming legislation for all electric cars in some countries, the writing is on the wall that in the future, gasoline cars may be obsolete.
It is unfortunate that it seems like it is getting harder and harder for the vast majority of coins to appreciate. That may have something to do with the fact it's getting harder and harder for the vast majority of people to have more disposable income. I was just in another conversation over the weekend arguing for better, or maintaining past, income distribution to the middle class, but don't think I made much progress convincing my friend.
What you are describing is not going to turn the coin market around, except to the extent it applies to the collector population. It is more relevant in the United States than either most or everywhere else because of the participation rate and the inflated price level of US coinage. But otherwise, there is no evidence that the general public desires increasing affluence so that they can spend any of it on coins.
The non-collector overwhelmingly has no aspiration to buy the coins typically described on this forum either, as there is no parallel with the antique or classic car example you provided. An antique car has utility and is a status symbol at some level. Coins have zero utility and aren't a status symbol to anyone, except to other collectors who have an inflated opinion of what they own or like.
Most expensive coins usually sit in a SDB. However, the vast majority of non-collectors are not going to be impressed with the coins discussed here, certainly not if they actually understand how the pricing structure works in the United States.
I see sentiments such as yours intermittently. If it really was income and wealth distribution, then the participation rate for women and minorities would be much higher in the United States. I don't know exactly what it is for these groups but it should be evident that economics doesn't explain the lack of interest by these groups relative to the traditional collector base.
The idea with the exotic car comparison is to get people thinking about enjoying depreciating assets. There seems to be a big concern here are prices of coins declining, but lots of people enjoy things that decline in prices. A shift in thinking can get more people thinking about enjoying their coins than the sky is falling.
Most expensive coins may sit in SDBs, but we share photos of them here so it's not like the coins aren't shared. I'm guessing many of the people posting on this and other forums, along with the YNs on Instagram, enjoy sharing their coins.
Economics doesn't explain everything, but it does explains part of it, especially for people who participated in the boom times before the Great Recession.
Yes, but this only applies to existing collectors, not the non-collector population. No amount of income or wealth increase within the collector population is going to change the market trend for most of the coin which are losing value.
Even if collectors had more discretionary income, I don't believe they would buy most of the coins they did before at prior prices. The US coinage subject to the current market trend is not competitive considering it's numismatic attributes. I presume this is not a popular statement but I see no way around it. The conflicting accounts I read on this subject indicate that even if the coin market is better than I think and discussed here, the coinage losing value has been displaced by (world) NCLT first and world or ancient coinage second because of the internet.
I am aware that people can obtain utility from depreciating objects. But with coins, why would more than a very low number follow the example you gave with the more expensive coinage discussed here instead of with (much) cheaper examples that aren't really that different?
@WCC said: @Zoins said: The idea with the exotic car comparison is to get people thinking about enjoying depreciating assets. ....
I am aware that people can obtain utility from depreciating objects. But with coins, why would more than a very low number follow the example you gave with the more expensive coinage discussed here instead of with (much) cheaper examples that aren't really that different?
This seems true. Why buy a genuine Shelby Cobra you can't afford and not a replica you can?
Why buy high grade 1814 cent for $14k when there's a gorgeous gem "reminted" 1815 on the bst right now for only 145 bucks?
@WCC said: @Zoins said: The idea with the exotic car comparison is to get people thinking about enjoying depreciating assets. ....
I am aware that people can obtain utility from depreciating objects. But with coins, why would more than a very low number follow the example you gave with the more expensive coinage discussed here instead of with (much) cheaper examples that aren't really that different?
This seems true. Why buy a genuine Shelby Cobra you can't afford and not a replica you can?
Why buy high grade 1814 cent for $14k when there's a gorgeous gem "reminted" 1815 on the bst right now for only 145 bucks?
Why buy a car you can’t afford? The simple reason is you can’t buy it, as in not enough money or ability to get financing.
There are generally two totally different sets of people with different wealth and objectives. The more expensive version is simply out of reach for most people who buy the cheaper version. There are exceptions but the rule seems to be most people who buy one won’t buy the other.
When I posted the OP, I simply wanted to point out some news in numismatics that I thought was positive. It is amazing how a few good words about the coin market can upset some people. I honestly believe there are people that just don't want to hear any good news about the coin market.
@Gazes said:
When I posted the OP, I simply wanted to point out some news in numismatics that I thought was positive. It is amazing how a few good words about the coin market can upset some people. I honestly believe there are people that just don't want to hear any good news about the coin market.
We're not arguing about your good news. We're arguing about the application of your good news to the "coin market" as opposed to single sectors. If Bill Gates sells his house for $100 million, it does not tell me that the real estate market is good. That's all most of us are saying.
@Gazes said:
When I posted the OP, I simply wanted to point out some news in numismatics that I thought was positive. It is amazing how a few good words about the coin market can upset some people. I honestly believe there are people that just don't want to hear any good news about the coin market.
We're not arguing about your good news. We're arguing about the application of your good news to the "coin market" as opposed to single sectors. If Bill Gates sells his house for $100 million, it does not tell me that the real estate market is good. That's all most of us are saying.
I agree with your statement about comparing to sectors and the specific example about Bill Gates. However, some of the posts go deeper. Almost angry that anyone thinks the market even in specific sectors is good. I get the sense that some are hoping for prices to drop (and not just as a buying opportunity). There are many sweeping statements regarding the coin market having no future, etc. I don't pretend to know the answers but certainly others don't either.
Also, keep in mind that my original post did not only have good news about the top end of the market but also reported objective good news for the entire market (i.e multiple strong reports from all dealers at FUN, high attendance numbers of all collectors at FUN, reports of more collectors). My only purpose on the OP was to publicize positive news about the coin market and I find some of the responses very telling.
When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
@Regulated said:
When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over.
ya and to profit you have to sell your coins. Which if you collect things you love why would you sell them?
Apparently the correct way to collect is to walk around with a dealers hand in one pocket and PCGS's hand in the other.
Buy a bunch of coins get them graded , replace all of them with slightly higher grades , sell the other garbage at a loss , pause to earn money , buy slightly higher grades sell off garbage at a loss.
PCGS issues dividend , dealer takes trip the greek isles , collector buys new coins sells garbage at a loss , dealer buys swimming pool , collector sells wretched garbage at a loss.
Here is my way , see coin I like, buy coin , keep coin for ever and ever. Dealer goes out of business and starves to death.
A very interesting thread for sure. As a collector (and occasional seller), there is no doubt I view it differently than as a dealer or frequent seller. It's pretty easy to see some areas are dead or on life support (clad proof sets) while others seem to be doing OK (original early material, CAC gold coins). The one thing I've been looking at a bit more is attractive, common date CAC Saints graded MS-66 or 66+. There are truly some knockout gorgeous coins to be had, but I'm wondering about some of the steep premiums I've seen with them - not sure if sustainable in the long term.
@topstuf said:
$20 golds will do fine once the surplus from overseas stops. Great way to stack bullion.
The surplus is permanent. They aren't melting the coins. They are bullion now, they will be bullion 100 years from now. And if I'm stacking bullion, do I want 90% Liberties or Saints at $50 over spot or 100% maple leafs or buffaloes (or pick your favorite bullion coin) for $50 over spot?
There is no future for common date gold in anything less than Gem Unc as a collectible. 62/63 and even 64 Libs an Saints are not going to suddenly generate huge premiums over spot.
In my ever humble opinion.
I know a dealer that last year melted over a million dollars worth of Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles. Yes, that is less than 1,000 coins in this particular instance - but it is happening.
The premiums on the even more common "junk" 90% silver coins have fluctuated considerably over the years. At times, the premiums were negative (the coins could be bought below their scrap "melt" value). Other times, there was a significant premium (1999 "Y2K", for example). I could see common-date gold double eagles obtaining a greater premium at some point in the future.
@Gazes said:
When I posted the OP, I simply wanted to point out some news in numismatics that I thought was positive. It is amazing how a few good words about the coin market can upset some people. I honestly believe there are people that just don't want to hear any good news about the coin market.
We're not arguing about your good news. We're arguing about the application of your good news to the "coin market" as opposed to single sectors. If Bill Gates sells his house for $100 million, it does not tell me that the real estate market is good. That's all most of us are saying.
I agree with your statement about comparing to sectors and the specific example about Bill Gates. However, some of the posts go deeper. Almost angry that anyone thinks the market even in specific sectors is good. I get the sense that some are hoping for prices to drop (and not just as a buying opportunity). There are many sweeping statements regarding the coin market having no future, etc. I don't pretend to know the answers but certainly others don't either.
Also, keep in mind that my original post did not only have good news about the top end of the market but also reported objective good news for the entire market (i.e multiple strong reports from all dealers at FUN, high attendance numbers of all collectors at FUN, reports of more collectors). My only purpose on the OP was to publicize positive news about the coin market and I find some of the responses very telling.
I have probably been one of the posters that has included sweeping statements. First, it's because this is a broad subject where getting into specifics about an individual coin or series isn't representative. And second if I have, It isn't because I don't believe coin collecting has a future. It's just because I expect most collectors to lose money and don't ignore what I think supports this conclusion.
For the collector who buys what they like and collects within their means, it doesn't matter. The outsized emphasis on plastic and stickers combined with any impartial evaluation of the coin's actual merits on most of the more expensive coinage gives anyone who will look at the subject impartially a much better reason to believe that it does and will matter, a lot.
@Regulated is dead on. The buying and selling of the more expensive coins in US "collecting" is a lot more about the financial aspects than actual collecting. I'm not saying most or all of these buyers aren't actual collectors as opposed to South Africa where the evidence indicates they are not. But it should be equally evident the price level isn't on a solid foundation longer term when the collecting aspects of the hobby are a distant second.
I don't believe the hobby is in trouble, only the inflated price level.
I don't believe the hobby is in trouble, only the inflated price level.
but isn't it our duty as good collectors to provide for all the middlemen ?
Plus if we stop buying then it will make it hard for the promoters to do good work. Paying those homeless people $20 to stand in line to buy all the gold kennedy halfs for instance.....
@WCC said: @Zoins said: The idea with the exotic car comparison is to get people thinking about enjoying depreciating assets. ....
I am aware that people can obtain utility from depreciating objects. But with coins, why would more than a very low number follow the example you gave with the more expensive coinage discussed here instead of with (much) cheaper examples that aren't really that different?
This seems true. Why buy a genuine Shelby Cobra you can't afford and not a replica you can?
Why buy high grade 1814 cent for $14k when there's a gorgeous gem "reminted" 1815 on the bst right now for only 145 bucks?
I'm not sure whether you are being sarcastic. But if you are, there is still no equivalence in your example. I can share the coins I currently own which have better collector attributes versus many far more expensive US coins. The sharing @Zoins described doesn't require spending a lot of money and doesn't have anything to do with supporting the price level, not unless the coin has distinction more or less proportionate to the price which most expensive coins do not.
Comments
It’s an interesting conundrum. I wonder how many collectors are in a similar position?
The market is robust in what I collect. Adding new coins has been a real challenge the past 3 or so years. If anything it’s made me an even pickier buyer. I’m pretty picky to begin with.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Your signature line implies you collect Morgan dollars. If this is correct, it is one of the preferred series for buyers who are substantially if not mostly buying for speculation. In my opinion, your best opportunity to get bailed out at break even or a profit is another major run up in silver spot, as this is the most likely trigger to draw a noticeable number of new "deep pocket" buyers. I expect that too happen, but with a long wait and the recovery point might also be at a lower or much lower price level.
Otherwise, from a collectible standpoint, I don't believe very many collectors really find the most expensive coins in this series to be that interesting when they are losing money on it. The price spreads on the higher grades are so wide or proportionately large, it makes a lot more sense to buy a much cheaper coin in a slightly lower quality and pocket the difference.
WCC ---i understand you collect non US coins. what do you collect ? also, do you find any series of US coins rare ?
I have a noticeable number of duplicates in a non-US series. Some of the coins are high quality while others are "high quality" but only for the series or coin. It is a thinly collected series which is concurrently much scarcer and much cheaper than comparable US coinage.
Mostly, I intentionally bought the duplicates. I'm not "stuck" in it because of change in market value, though the coins might realize less than I paid. I won't sell it because the proceeds won't really make any financial difference to me and I can't buy other coins for the same price that I like as much anyway. The effect of this is that there is less supply for the few others who might also want to collect it.
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well
it isn't and I have been suggesting as much for a few years.
Now, exclusively pillar 1/2R, 1R, 2R and 4R mostly from Peru but also Bolivia and Guatemala if I can find any decent coin at a "reasonable" price within my budget. I also have holdings of Spanish colonial lion and castle quarter real (one is my avatar coin which is a Mexico 1813 PCGS MS-66), Bolivia republic decimals, South Africa Union and a few other odds and ends.
On US series rarity, I'd consider the Liberty QE, half eagle and eagle series to contain a lot of rare or very scarce dates. Same for many (though not all) early gold such as the Capped Head QE and half eagle. Many liberty seated dates are also quite scarce.
The others, mostly either common or with a low number of scarce to rare coins. As an example, I consider the 1802 very scarce rare, depending upon how many actually exist. Coin Facts claim around 35 yet I counted only 14 in the population data and this excludes potential duplicates. Conversely, I don't consider very many other early federal issues to be scarce. I make exceptions to consider the number of "decent" survivors where a disproportionate number or percentage are in very low quality but not otherwise.
There also many colonials and territorial gold, if that is included in your definition of a US coin. Patterns? Well, most are "made rare" so I don't subscribe any significance to it.
I agree with Keets about the BROADER market. Anyone talking about pockets of strength is talking about one healthy tree in a dying forest. There are far more pockets of weakness than strength. And you can look down your nose at that weakness and ascribe it to widgets or whatever, but the fact is that most of the breadth of the market is widgets. 5 figure coins is a tiny segment (by volume) of the broader market.
Time to crack and "albumize."
Most people have difficulty seeing or believing an outcome contrary to their personal interest and personal preference. In coin collecting, that's why (predominantly US) collectors invent rarity where it doesn't exist. They also want to believe that other collectors and on occasion future prospective collectors from the current non-collecting public find the coins they collect as interesting and compelling as they do so that someone will be there to buy their collection at a profit.
What I am describing is particularly evident in five figure and above US coinage. It should be self evident that a larger pool of current "widget" collectors increases the probability that more of these people will become the potential buyer of the more expensive coinage in the future. Weakness in the current market for "widgets" is a problem for the future seller of the more expensive coins because most collectors don't really like collecting enough to stick with it when they are losing money.
Here is what I know firsthand. The coins I bought and sold 10-15 years back, always did well. I bought a coin, I sold a coin for the same or more than I paid usually.
Now, here is what I know: I buy a coin, I sell a coin for less (not even money) everytime, all the time, without exceptions.
I personally believe that early american silver is much tougher and less expensive than early american gold in high grade. What do others think? I'm not suggesting one is better than the other.
I know a little about liberty quarter eagles. Couple years ago I sold a group called the Kentucky collection on Doug Winter's site. You can see the coins I sold and Doug also wrote a blog about my collection that you can read on his site. Although I still collect liberty quarter eagles, I have moved on to some other series that are just as challenging.
To my knowledge, early gold has always been more expensive and sometimes a lot more expensive, with a few silver and copper coins as exceptions. I don't know whether the relative prices have widened or shrunk over time, as I haven't done the necessary research.
As for the quality, I would expect early gold to be better since it didn't circulate as much due to the face value, but that might not translate to the standards in use today.
Yes, I remember reading about your collection here before I joined this site. I agree it's a tough series because many date/MM combinations have low mintages, MM collecting was not widely practiced, geographic limitations and collectors probably didn't bother to save it because it seemingly went on forever. 68 years is a long time for a series.
One advantage to collecting a long series is that you almost never "have" to have a coin. If a coin I need is offered at an unreasonable price, there are always other coins I need. There are dozens of coins in the liberty quarter eagle series that are key or semi key dates.
The free fall appears to have stopped at least.
pumpers
True.
Most of the coins in my primary series are key or at least semi-key under US criteria. I have seen more of it lately but due to a combination of the scarcity and much lower price level, a collector cannot go out and buy any of it whenever they want to do so, much less in a specific quality. The US series I use as a basis of comparison is Liberty Seated, except for the Seated versus pillar dollar. So I compare the half real to the half dime, real to dime and so forth. In some instances, the pillar mintages are higher but for comparable mintage, my estimate is that this coinage is usually scarcer by a noticeable or even substantial margin. Looking at Coin Facts, most Seated date/MM denomination combinations have multiples in high quality and often even in elite quality. Many of the pillar dates appear to have zero high quality examples and the number of average circulated examples is also very low.
When it's considered that gold and silver are so weak and the demographic change is well underway the market is holding up better than I might have predicted.
But the absolute number of collectors will bottom soon if it hasn't already and metals prices will soar.
Long term trends take a long time to play out...
For what I collect (early quarter eagles), the market is very strong for high quality pieces which are few and far between. CAC is almost a must unless it’s a super rarity. Prices within the same grade can be enormous > 50% depending on quality —> bifurcated market.
It’s the new normal. Or maybe it has always been this way for the most astute collectors and with CAC it has become a general thing.
For me, it’s a sellers market!
Regarding the 50% difference in price for the same grade, does the “same grade” include or not include CAC?
I don't see how a run up (even double or triple) in silver spot is going to affect the price of silver coins that are currently selling for over a $1000 and even more so for those selling for 10's of thousand.
It will support prices on the low end and potentially flipping new ultra moderns. If this happens, in the past people making money from those have directed funds to more expensive coins.
I know a guy that doesn't code or track what he paid for a coin, because he says, "I can only sell it for what it's worth." Saves him a lot of anguish.
And that's true. Also, note that it is unsaid that coins will end up out of favor forever. It does seem to me that if you can find them to your liking now is a time to be buying.
To me it seems like coins are becoming more like the exotic car market.
It is unfortunate that it seems like it is getting harder and harder for the vast majority of coins to appreciate. That may have something to do with the fact it's getting harder and harder for the vast majority of people to have more disposable income. I was just in another conversation over the weekend arguing for better, or maintaining past, income distribution to the middle class, but don't think I made much progress convincing my friend.
CAC for the extreme cases.
Thanks. It's good to note that because many people consider CAC part of the overall grade now. It's always listed by dealers and auction houses along with the TPG grade.
Maybe or maybe not. I have never bought high grade Morgan dollars or US pre-1933 gold. However, it is my understanding that a noticeable percentage of bigger budget buyers (especially new buyers) during metal bull markets do so not really for collecting, but as a substitute for other asset classes and bullion.
However, the main reason it would not is almost certainly due to the part of my reply you did not quote. A high grade expensive but actually common coin is not that interesting as a collectible, except when the buyer is making money or at least not losing much of it. This is an inference but this coinage certainly seems more interesting that owning an equivalent value in silver bullion, though I think at current prices I expect it to be less profitable.
What's a CAC?
No - numismatic value is the non bullion based market value of a coin. Market Value is defined what the coins are trading for in the market place based on TPG, CW Trends, CPG, NN Coin Market, Dealer Price List, etc. There are 3 stats I have available on my coins: Cost, Bid, MV, and in many cases auction.
Some keep it simple and economical - greysheet,TPG (free), and Red Book.
I do believe income challenges will keep many out of coin collecting and force many liquidate - ASE and material below $50 may be exception. Paying off cc debt yields better return than coins. The bids have been stagnant or sliding south for sometime, the slide in the dollar market a major concern.
What you are describing is not going to turn the coin market around, except to the extent it applies to the collector population. It is more relevant in the United States than either most or everywhere else because of the participation rate and the inflated price level of US coinage. But otherwise, there is no evidence that the general public desires increasing affluence so that they can spend any of it on coins.
The non-collector overwhelmingly has no aspiration to buy the coins typically described on this forum either, as there is no parallel with the antique or classic car example you provided. An antique car has utility and is a status symbol at some level. Coins have zero utility and aren't a status symbol to anyone, except to other collectors who have an inflated opinion of what they own or like.
Most expensive coins usually sit in a SDB. However, the vast majority of non-collectors are not going to be impressed with the coins discussed here, certainly not if they actually understand how the pricing structure works in the United States.
I see sentiments such as yours intermittently. If it really was income and wealth distribution, then the participation rate for women and minorities would be much higher in the United States. I don't know exactly what it is for these groups but it should be evident that economics doesn't explain the lack of interest by these groups relative to the traditional collector base.
The idea with the exotic car comparison is to get people thinking about enjoying depreciating assets. There seems to be a big concern here are prices of coins declining, but lots of people enjoy things that decline in prices. A shift in thinking can get more people thinking about enjoying their coins than the sky is falling.
Most expensive coins may sit in SDBs, but we share photos of them here so it's not like the coins aren't shared. I'm guessing many of the people posting on this and other forums, along with the YNs on Instagram, enjoy sharing their coins.
Economics doesn't explain everything, but it does explains part of it, especially for people who participated in the boom times before the Great Recession.
Yes, but this only applies to existing collectors, not the non-collector population. No amount of income or wealth increase within the collector population is going to change the market trend for most of the coin which are losing value.
Even if collectors had more discretionary income, I don't believe they would buy most of the coins they did before at prior prices. The US coinage subject to the current market trend is not competitive considering it's numismatic attributes. I presume this is not a popular statement but I see no way around it. The conflicting accounts I read on this subject indicate that even if the coin market is better than I think and discussed here, the coinage losing value has been displaced by (world) NCLT first and world or ancient coinage second because of the internet.
I am aware that people can obtain utility from depreciating objects. But with coins, why would more than a very low number follow the example you gave with the more expensive coinage discussed here instead of with (much) cheaper examples that aren't really that different?
This seems true. Why buy a genuine Shelby Cobra you can't afford and not a replica you can?
Why buy high grade 1814 cent for $14k when there's a gorgeous gem "reminted" 1815 on the bst right now for only 145 bucks?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Why buy a car you can’t afford? The simple reason is you can’t buy it, as in not enough money or ability to get financing.
There are generally two totally different sets of people with different wealth and objectives. The more expensive version is simply out of reach for most people who buy the cheaper version. There are exceptions but the rule seems to be most people who buy one won’t buy the other.
Something that very few will admit is in the process of making tons of coins unsalable.
When I posted the OP, I simply wanted to point out some news in numismatics that I thought was positive. It is amazing how a few good words about the coin market can upset some people. I honestly believe there are people that just don't want to hear any good news about the coin market.
We're not arguing about your good news. We're arguing about the application of your good news to the "coin market" as opposed to single sectors. If Bill Gates sells his house for $100 million, it does not tell me that the real estate market is good. That's all most of us are saying.
I agree with your statement about comparing to sectors and the specific example about Bill Gates. However, some of the posts go deeper. Almost angry that anyone thinks the market even in specific sectors is good. I get the sense that some are hoping for prices to drop (and not just as a buying opportunity). There are many sweeping statements regarding the coin market having no future, etc. I don't pretend to know the answers but certainly others don't either.
Also, keep in mind that my original post did not only have good news about the top end of the market but also reported objective good news for the entire market (i.e multiple strong reports from all dealers at FUN, high attendance numbers of all collectors at FUN, reports of more collectors). My only purpose on the OP was to publicize positive news about the coin market and I find some of the responses very telling.
When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
ya and to profit you have to sell your coins. Which if you collect things you love why would you sell them?
Apparently the correct way to collect is to walk around with a dealers hand in one pocket and PCGS's hand in the other.
Buy a bunch of coins get them graded , replace all of them with slightly higher grades , sell the other garbage at a loss , pause to earn money , buy slightly higher grades sell off garbage at a loss.
PCGS issues dividend , dealer takes trip the greek isles , collector buys new coins sells garbage at a loss , dealer buys swimming pool , collector sells wretched garbage at a loss.
Here is my way , see coin I like, buy coin , keep coin for ever and ever. Dealer goes out of business and starves to death.
A very interesting thread for sure. As a collector (and occasional seller), there is no doubt I view it differently than as a dealer or frequent seller. It's pretty easy to see some areas are dead or on life support (clad proof sets) while others seem to be doing OK (original early material, CAC gold coins). The one thing I've been looking at a bit more is attractive, common date CAC Saints graded MS-66 or 66+. There are truly some knockout gorgeous coins to be had, but I'm wondering about some of the steep premiums I've seen with them - not sure if sustainable in the long term.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
You can stop there. The best insurance of future demand is to stick to GOLD coins (CAC if you can gettem) but any GOLD coin is always in demand.
I know a dealer that last year melted over a million dollars worth of Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles. Yes, that is less than 1,000 coins in this particular instance - but it is happening.
The premiums on the even more common "junk" 90% silver coins have fluctuated considerably over the years. At times, the premiums were negative (the coins could be bought below their scrap "melt" value). Other times, there was a significant premium (1999 "Y2K", for example). I could see common-date gold double eagles obtaining a greater premium at some point in the future.
I have probably been one of the posters that has included sweeping statements. First, it's because this is a broad subject where getting into specifics about an individual coin or series isn't representative. And second if I have, It isn't because I don't believe coin collecting has a future. It's just because I expect most collectors to lose money and don't ignore what I think supports this conclusion.
For the collector who buys what they like and collects within their means, it doesn't matter. The outsized emphasis on plastic and stickers combined with any impartial evaluation of the coin's actual merits on most of the more expensive coinage gives anyone who will look at the subject impartially a much better reason to believe that it does and will matter, a lot.
@Regulated is dead on. The buying and selling of the more expensive coins in US "collecting" is a lot more about the financial aspects than actual collecting. I'm not saying most or all of these buyers aren't actual collectors as opposed to South Africa where the evidence indicates they are not. But it should be equally evident the price level isn't on a solid foundation longer term when the collecting aspects of the hobby are a distant second.
I don't believe the hobby is in trouble, only the inflated price level.
but isn't it our duty as good collectors to provide for all the middlemen ?
Plus if we stop buying then it will make it hard for the promoters to do good work. Paying those homeless people $20 to stand in line to buy all the gold kennedy halfs for instance.....
I thought I got ahead of everything.
But now I am swamped again.
I'm not sure whether you are being sarcastic. But if you are, there is still no equivalence in your example. I can share the coins I currently own which have better collector attributes versus many far more expensive US coins. The sharing @Zoins described doesn't require spending a lot of money and doesn't have anything to do with supporting the price level, not unless the coin has distinction more or less proportionate to the price which most expensive coins do not.