between 2000 and around 2012 it wasn't unusual to see the same coin(s) sell 2-3 times at auction, sometimes only a few years apart. prices during that period and the "market" were rising enough so the juice could be paid and a profit made. that isn't just on big rarities but also on lesser coins. after that time, prices slowed down and then started to fall back.
I wonder how easy it is for everyone to replace coins now compared to back then?? when you do find replacements, are they more expensive to buy every year, say from 2012-today, or are they the same or cheaper??
where are all the new collectors that everyone speaks about?? as our clearly "aged" Hobby shrinks via attrition, who exactly is filling that void and increasing the number of collectors?? my suspicion is that a specialty dealer such as DW is only seeing an increase because already active collectors he hasn't met/sold to are now doing two things: leaving areas where they traditionally collected and entering his niche. I say this because my experience is that "new collectors" don't typically enter this Hobby at the top end.
to follow up on that thought, I don't see new collectors entering the Hobby in more traditional areas.
a question --- what is everyone's definition of "nice coins" which gets used a lot in one form or another?? using my definition, I see that kind of stuff shrinking in volume. it goes without saying that stuff like that has eager buyers, it always has and always will have. that shouldn't be the gauge of a strong market, a better gauge should be how much of that stuff is there available. my answer --- not a whole lot and certainly nowhere near what could be found 10-15 years ago. collectors aren't selling that stuff, they're buying it when they can find it and then holding it.
dealers don't count in my sense of the equation, they buy as low as they can and sell for as high as they can, they don't buy to hold onto stuff. collectors are a better gauge because they tend to buy for a long hold time and only sell for one of three reasons --- out of need, when they can realize a nice gain or when they die.
to get an honest appraisal of the State of the Union, talk to a man on the street and not a Politician.
to get an honest appraisal of the Hobby, talk to a collector and not a dealer.
@WCC said:
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE >and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
I'm thinking the #1 reason something is scarce is because no one felt like making a bunch of them.
-Or-
Nobody thought they were worth saving.
Kinda like the Plymouth Horizon.
I'm not collecting one of those.
You can have your rare foreign coins that they only made 10 of and have weird writing on them and a picture of a worm.
>
Your comments have nothing to do with my post. The extract you quoted is based upon the fact that most of the coins in these four series aren't remotely hard to buy even in "high quality", except when narrow and arbitrary criteria is applied. This equally applies to most of the scarcer issues because even most of these aren't that scarce and the higher price level makes it easier to buy.
My main disagreement is your statement that "most of the coins in these four series aren't remotely hard to buy even in "high quality", except when narrow and arbitrary criteria is applied. In my post about the $5 and quarter Indian series, I said coins are very hard to find in gem and cac. I do not find these two criteria as "narrow and arbitrary". Collecting coins in MS-65 are higher is a common goal for collectors. To call the grading of a coin a narrow and arbitrary criteria seems to go against modern thinking that condition is of the utmost importance (early in coin collecting, collectors simply wanted one of everything and condition was far less important). The second criteria is CAC. Although some collectors have no interest in it due to the series they are collecting, etc---many collectors not only will pay a premium for CAC but only want CAC coins. Again even if you do not believe in CAC for yourself, using CAC as a criteria to help find coins solid for the grade and undoctored does not seem narrow or arbitrary.
If you think finding these coins is not rare, do an internet search and see how many MS 65 CAC Indian quarter eagles you can find? How many can you find in that grade that are not the more common dates?
Unfortunately the condition rarity argument has it’s limitations - so to is an early SAE silver eagle. It is rare also but only artificially so. Not trying to get in the middle of this but falling back on condition rarity IMO to support an argument has its limitations.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
ately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
LOL. I would have stated it more gently: you can't judge the entire market by the high end.
I know almost everyone on THIS forum want to reject the comparison of stamps to coins, but it was and still is apt. High end stamps still set records. The price of inverted Jennys have NOT dropped. But, at the same time, virtually EVERY U.S. STAMP in the catalog has dropped by a factor of 10 (TEN!) in price.
The price of an 1884/1885 Seated proof has nothing to do with the price of MS65 Morgan dollars.
And you can argue with me about the stamp metaphor, but if you say "stamps aren't money" or the equivalent, you've already lost the argument. Most coins on this forum are NOT money as we collect them. They are $12 in intrinsic value and $100+ (or $1 million) in "collectible premium". Stamps also have a face value. But, interestingly, if you are buying 32 cent stamps now, you pay 32 cents for the stamps and get a 16 cent rebate for negative collectible premium.
Silver dollars have been one of the most popular areas of the coin market for as long as I can remember. Yet, common date XF peace dollars are virtually bullion and 1921 Morgans aren't much better. While someone spent $4 million on one seated proof, so what? At the same time, regular folks have seen their MS65 Morgan dollar collection go down in value.
Try to sell Wheaties by date to collectors filling albums...there are hardly any left! I'd love to know what Whitman and Dansco sales volume has done over the last 25 years. I bet it is way down. Those people were the base of the coin market. They are the reason, frankly, that anyone cares about 16-D dimes or S-VDB cents. Without the hole fillers, type collectors would simply get an MS68 1941 Merc and be done with the whole series.
Look at the volume of proof sets sold annually by the Mint over the last 20 years. That was a retail product sold to a lot of people who considered themselves coin collectors. Where are they? Don't pretend that they all got smart all of a sudden and only collected Seated Dimes by die variety.
The coin market in total is NOT doing well, not at all. And the high end of the market is as useful as the price of Inverted Jennys is to the overall stamp market.
Remember this: PEOPLE GOT RICH DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION!!! Very very very rich. But MOST people were poor, very very poor.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you make yourself rich that probably doesn't leave a lot of time for collecting nonsense and you are probably too smart to let a dealer pick your pockets with a cac sticker .
If your daddy was rich then he married a model and you are the proud owner of a room temperature IQ , hence more money than brains.
This installment of the weekly brown nose thread has been " rally the troops" . Next week will be the "isn't cac great" topic mark your calendar
I'm collecting oak leaves now , and I have a tree in my back yard . Jealous?
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you make yourself rich that probably doesn't leave a lot of time for collecting nonsense and you are probably too smart to let a dealer pick your pockets with a cac sticker .
If your daddy was rich then he married a model and you are the proud owner of a room temperature IQ , hence more money than brains.
This installment of the weekly brown nose thread has been " rally the troops" . Next week will be the "isn't cac great" topic mark your calendar
I'm collecting oak leaves now , and I have a tree in my back yard . Jealous?
I certainly don’t believe the market is doing well overall and have mentioned it many times.
However, I think it’s unfair to generalize in a derogatory way. If anything, with the recent posts by Legend, it seems like new collectors were astute and using CoinFacts to refute the falsehood then they were being told.
Can you point to some collectors you're thinking of?
Dell Loy Hansen seems to be self-made. This is from his bio:
Mr. Hansen founded Wasatch Property Management, Inc. in 1988 and has served as the company’s President since its inception, with corporate headquarters located in Logan, Utah. Wasatch currently employs approximately 600 employees, managing 52 multi-family residential communities with approximately 12,000 apartment units, 5 condominium developments, and 20 commercial buildings with 2.4 million of rental square footage throughout the western United States. Wasatch and its affiliated investor-owned entities maintain a real estate portfolio in excess of $1.2 Billion.
Mr. Hansen is also an owner in nearly a dozen venture companies, with approximately 900 employees located across Utah, Idaho and California. The companies range from a recycling and waste disposal company in Sacramento, Calif.; several sports clubs throughout Utah and Idaho, a plastic injection & molding company, a wood milling company and a golf course in Utah; and one of the largest utility management and billing companies in the United States.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you've made the equivalent of $50k a year all your life and put 15% away, you're a millionaire at like, 56 or something, factoring in compounding returns.
Your average millionaire doesn't have to be very smart. I'm well on my way and I don't consider myself to be exceptionally intelligent or anything. Maybe slightly above average at best.
Unfortunately, if the articles are to be believed, you are in a rare minority that is saving at that level. And there are issues with many Americans even making that level of income.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
Because there are too many MARKET reports and not enough ...collector... reports.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you make yourself rich that probably doesn't leave a lot of time for collecting nonsense and you are probably too smart to let a dealer pick your pockets with a cac sticker .
If your daddy was rich then he married a model and you are the proud owner of a room temperature IQ , hence more money than brains.
This installment of the weekly brown nose thread has been " rally the troops" . Next week will be the "isn't cac great" topic mark your calendar
I'm collecting oak leaves now , and I have a tree in my back yard . Jealous?
I certainly don’t believe the market is doing well overall and have mentioned it many times.
Can you point to some collectors you're thinking of?
Dell Loy Hansen seems to be self-made. This is from his bio:
From the bio I agree he is probably a self made guy which if my theory is correct will lead to him marrying a model and having stupid children. Those kids will inherit his coins but won't appreciate them and they will quickly be put up for sale to finance a trip to Ibiza . However if he marries his high school sweetheart then the kids might be ok.
Dealers won't love that guy he might be too smart for them but they will love his kids long time.
I'm not a dealer or an investor so I don't care i what the price guides say and find these threads somewhat tedious in their pendulum like regularity. I have a theory that rather than being a human the ID known as gazes is a digital representation of a south east asian click farm that is paid 3 tenths of a cent whenever CAC appears in a post on the internet. It doesn't sound like a lot of money but 4 or 5 of these threads a week and it adds up
The market is where your perspective is ...... as a buyer it feels very strong to me since everything I have on my list remain in strong hands with strong price
Some said the Comm silver is still down but it still seems high to me since the lowest point probably is higher
Oh well let me finish my Joe and give it serious thought later
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you've made the equivalent of $50k a year all your life and put 15% away, you're a millionaire at like, 56 or something, factoring in compounding returns.
Your average millionaire doesn't have to be very smart. I'm well on my way and I don't consider myself to be exceptionally intelligent or anything. Maybe slightly above average at best.
Unfortunately, if the articles are to be believed, you are in a rare minority that is saving at that level. And there are issues with many Americans even making that level of income.
I barely make that and I've been working for 8+ years... My point is, it's not hard to be a millionaire these days if you jus stash some money away.
I agree it’s not for many people, especially if you invest due to compounding. My point is that as easy as that sounds, many people don’t do it.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you've made the equivalent of $50k a year all your life and put 15% away, you're a millionaire at like, 56 or something, factoring in compounding returns.
Your average millionaire doesn't have to be very smart. I'm well on my way and I don't consider myself to be exceptionally intelligent or anything. Maybe slightly above average at best.
Unfortunately, if the articles are to be believed, you are in a rare minority that is saving at that level. And there are issues with many Americans even making that level of income.
I barely make that and I've been working for 8+ years... My point is, it's not hard to be a millionaire these days if you jus stash some money away.
I agree it’s not for many people, especially if you invest due to compounding. My point is that as easy as that sounds, many people don’t do it.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you make yourself rich that probably doesn't leave a lot of time for collecting nonsense and you are probably too smart to let a dealer pick your pockets with a cac sticker .
If your daddy was rich then he married a model and you are the proud owner of a room temperature IQ , hence more money than brains.
This installment of the weekly brown nose thread has been " rally the troops" . Next week will be the "isn't cac great" topic mark your calendar
I'm collecting oak leaves now , and I have a tree in my back yard . Jealous?
I certainly don’t believe the market is doing well overall and have mentioned it many times.
Can you point to some collectors you're thinking of?
Dell Loy Hansen seems to be self-made. This is from his bio:
From the bio I agree he is probably a self made guy which if my theory is correct will lead to him marrying a model and having stupid children. Those kids will inherit his coins but won't appreciate them and they will quickly be put up for sale to finance a trip to Ibiza . However if he marries his high school sweetheart then the kids might be ok.
Dealers won't love that guy he might be too smart for them but they will love his kids long time.
I'm not a dealer or an investor so I don't care i what the price guides say and find these threads somewhat tedious in their pendulum like regularity. I have a theory that rather than being a human the ID known as gazes is a digital representation of a south east asian click farm that is paid 3 tenths of a cent whenever CAC appears in a post on the internet. It doesn't sound like a lot of money but 4 or 5 of these threads a week and it adds up
I am actually a real collector and love coins (you don't seem to--you think anyone who has money is wasting their time to collect?). I rarely post anything about my own collections but love discussing coins. Not sure why you think every thread I post is a CAC thread---my last threads I started are this one (my assessment that the market is good), and before that "can there be another pittman" and before that the importance of dealers quickly posting new purchases, etc. It is funny, everyone who accuses me of only discussing CAC are the people who always seem to bring CAC up! However, if you want to accuse me of being a fan of CAC---guilty as charged. Prior to CAC, I bought too many coins that were doctored and got sick of overgraded material. CAC is not perfect but it has significantly helped in these areas especially with gold coins. I could care less if you never buy a CAC coin--why do you care if I do? You say you are not a dealer or an investor or care what price guides say or what people say in these threads----great, go buy whatever you want! I'm funny, John Albanese's opinion actually matters to me. Have a great day!
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you make yourself rich that probably doesn't leave a lot of time for collecting nonsense and you are probably too smart to let a dealer pick your pockets with a cac sticker .
If your daddy was rich then he married a model and you are the proud owner of a room temperature IQ , hence more money than brains.
This installment of the weekly brown nose thread has been " rally the troops" . Next week will be the "isn't cac great" topic mark your calendar
I'm collecting oak leaves now , and I have a tree in my back yard . Jealous?
I certainly don’t believe the market is doing well overall and have mentioned it many times.
Can you point to some collectors you're thinking of?
Dell Loy Hansen seems to be self-made. This is from his bio:
From the bio I agree he is probably a self made guy which if my theory is correct will lead to him marrying a model and having stupid children. Those kids will inherit his coins but won't appreciate them and they will quickly be put up for sale to finance a trip to Ibiza . However if he marries his high school sweetheart then the kids might be ok.
Dealers won't love that guy he might be too smart for them but they will love his kids long time.
I'm not a dealer or an investor so I don't care i what the price guides say and find these threads somewhat tedious in their pendulum like regularity. I have a theory that rather than being a human the ID known as gazes is a digital representation of a south east asian click farm that is paid 3 tenths of a cent whenever CAC appears in a post on the internet. It doesn't sound like a lot of money but 4 or 5 of these threads a week and it adds up
I am actually a real collector and love coins (you don't seem to--you think anyone who has money is wasting their time to collect?). I rarely post anything about my own collections but love discussing coins. Not sure why you think every thread I post is a CAC thread---my last threads I started are this one (my assessment that the market is good), and before that "can there be another pittman" and before that the importance of dealers quickly posting new purchases, etc. It is funny, everyone who accuses me of only discussing CAC are the people who always seem to bring CAC up! However, if you want to accuse me of being a fan of CAC---guilty as charged. Prior to CAC, I bought too many coins that were doctored and got sick of overgraded material. CAC is not perfect but it has significantly helped in these areas especially with gold coins. I could care less if you never buy a CAC coin--why do you care if I do? You say you are not a dealer or an investor or care what price guides say or what people say in these threads----great, go buy whatever you want! I'm funny, John Albanese's opinion actually matters to me. Have a great day!
I see what you did there ! you fit 7 CACs in that one paragraph , never a day off right ?
I never said it was a waste of time to collect , and no I don't hate coins I swear I'm not a dealer .
I collect circulated coins so I don't need to pay a tax on every coin to 3rd parties.
@WCC said:
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE >and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
I'm thinking the #1 reason something is scarce is because no one felt like making a bunch of them.
-Or-
Nobody thought they were worth saving.
Kinda like the Plymouth Horizon.
I'm not collecting one of those.
You can have your rare foreign coins that they only made 10 of and have weird writing on them and a picture of a worm.
>
Your comments have nothing to do with my post. The extract you quoted is based upon the fact that most of the coins in these four series aren't remotely hard to buy even in "high quality", except when narrow and arbitrary criteria is applied. This equally applies to most of the scarcer issues because even most of these aren't that scarce and the higher price level makes it easier to buy.
My main disagreement is your statement that "most of the coins in these four series aren't remotely hard to buy even in "high quality", except when narrow and arbitrary criteria is applied. In my post about the $5 and quarter Indian series, I said coins are very hard to find in gem and cac. I do not find these two criteria as "narrow and arbitrary". Collecting coins in MS-65 are higher is a common goal for collectors. To call the grading of a coin a narrow and arbitrary criteria seems to go against modern thinking that condition is of the utmost importance (early in coin collecting, collectors simply wanted one of everything and condition was far less important). The second criteria is CAC. Although some collectors have no interest in it due to the series they are collecting, etc---many collectors not only will pay a premium for CAC but only want CAC coins. Again even if you do not believe in CAC for yourself, using CAC as a criteria to help find coins solid for the grade and undoctored does not seem narrow or arbitrary.
If you think finding these coins is not rare, do an internet search and see how many MS 65 CAC Indian quarter eagles you can find? How many can you find in that grade that are not the more common dates?
Though I am new to this forum, I am aware of what you are telling me of current US collector perception and practices. I am not trying to change your mind. Concurrently, you certainly aren't going to change mine, as I don't consider what you described to have any distinction whatsoever.
All collectors want to feel positive about what they bought and how much they paid. I get that. This is especially true of those who buy the most expensive coins which is why the criteria you described is of utmost importance.
I understand the financial importance of the TPG grade/CAC and don't dispute it because it's self-evident fact. I concurrently recognize it predominantly as a rationalization for an inflated price level because it certainly isn't remotely correlated to the quality for any expensive coin. Few if any buyers would pay these prices if they didn't believe they could get most, all or more or their money back. The 1914-S half eagle you profiled is interesting enough to many buyers at $60,000 as long as they don't lose a "noticeable" proportion of their outlay but not remotely otherwise.
I am aware everyone would rather buy superior over inferior coins, presumably don't want doctored coins and many prefer "originality". Buying solid for the grade coins is most important for expensive coins such as those you buy and is mostly an option for the buyer of common or relatively easy to buy coins.
Under current US practices, literally every single coin except for NCLT is "scarce" or "rare" in some grade or with some modifier. I have not checked the CAC data but if a large number of pre-1933 US are available in noticeable supply in MS-65 with this designation, then these coins are even more common than I thought.
ately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
LOL. I would have stated it more gently: you can't judge the entire market by the high end.
I know almost everyone on THIS forum want to reject the comparison of stamps to coins, but it was and still is apt. High end stamps still set records. The price of inverted Jennys have NOT dropped. But, at the same time, virtually EVERY U.S. STAMP in the catalog has dropped by a factor of 10 (TEN!) in price.
The price of an 1884/1885 Seated proof has nothing to do with the price of MS65 Morgan dollars.
And you can argue with me about the stamp metaphor, but if you say "stamps aren't money" or the equivalent, you've already lost the argument. Most coins on this forum are NOT money as we collect them. They are $12 in intrinsic value and $100+ (or $1 million) in "collectible premium". Stamps also have a face value. But, interestingly, if you are buying 32 cent stamps now, you pay 32 cents for the stamps and get a 16 cent rebate for negative collectible premium.
Silver dollars have been one of the most popular areas of the coin market for as long as I can remember. Yet, common date XF peace dollars are virtually bullion and 1921 Morgans aren't much better. While someone spent $4 million on one seated proof, so what? At the same time, regular folks have seen their MS65 Morgan dollar collection go down in value.
Try to sell Wheaties by date to collectors filling albums...there are hardly any left! I'd love to know what Whitman and Dansco sales volume has done over the last 25 years. I bet it is way down. Those people were the base of the coin market. They are the reason, frankly, that anyone cares about 16-D dimes or S-VDB cents. Without the hole fillers, type collectors would simply get an MS68 1941 Merc and be done with the whole series.
Look at the volume of proof sets sold annually by the Mint over the last 20 years. That was a retail product sold to a lot of people who considered themselves coin collectors. Where are they? Don't pretend that they all got smart all of a sudden and only collected Seated Dimes by die variety.
The coin market in total is NOT doing well, not at all. And the high end of the market is as useful as the price of Inverted Jennys is to the overall stamp market.
Remember this: PEOPLE GOT RICH DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION!!! Very very very rich. But MOST people were poor, very very poor.
I am going to put it another way. I read many threads like this one either lamenting the state of the market or trying to convince others it's not that bad.
I don't think it is that bad for the "high end" but given the external environment, I would expect it to be better or a lot better, if the merits of the financial promoters had any validity. GDP growth is respectable. Business profits are at or near an all-time high. The upper income and wealth tier are certainly doing very well. The stock market is in it's third incarnation of a mania since the late 1990's which never really ended. Many real estate markets are in another bubble. Most importantly, aggregate credit conditions have never been looser and credit standards have never been lower, not on a global scale.
Many are complaining about the "weak" US coin market and the US economy isn't even in an (official) recession and the financial markets have barely declined.
So the question I have now is, if any of you think the market is so weak now, what do you think is going to happen later when the economy experiences contraction and financial conditions tighten?
Let me answer it for you. If market health as reflected in the price level is actually substantially if not mostly dependent upon the combination of the TPG grade and the CAC sticker, the coin market longer term is actually in much worse shape than any of you think.
There is Literally NO END to newly produced "coins" and it appears that the ballooning supply of precious metal NCLT, as well as the copy/replica/fantasy/tribute/
overstrike/counterfeit material that is so popular in the seemingly sanctioned spam thread here, and how easy it is to artificially tone and profit from otherwise common coins, the New Stuff cannot help but draw money that would otherwise go toward the more traditional, genuine obsolete collector coins that used to form the foundation of the hobby.
Combined with the increasing focus on only the high end and especially the "right slab and sticker" market for the latter, those regular, nice -but -nothing -special items will continue to stagnate.
If metals were to severely decline (if there were economic asteroid or ocean mining, for example) then even the prettiest bullion will drive almost everything far lower.
In my world (US $20 gold piece) the coin market is dead.
When I first started buying coins, the Gold LIbs ms 63 cost about $200 over the gold price. Today, coins can be bought under a $100 premium. ST 62's were my preferred buy. Today, 64 -65 are where I am buying.
I even bought a few CC's , New Orleans, shipwrecks, rare dates, and the premiums fell significantly on those as well.
Looking back over the past 8 years, I saw gold top out @ $1900. today it's $1300. over the same time span the S& P's have more than doubled. There is little interest in gold based on the sales of new 1 oz gold coin from the mint.
Dealers are selling their gold at very low premiums in order to keep buying the newly minted coins plus the resales that keep coming in from the public. I walked into a major coin dealer's shop and as soon as I walked in the door he asked me "how many $20 am I trying to sell?" I had none but I am still haunted by his question.
So, I am still buying the coins at very, very low premiums and have not seen any recovery in premiums. Thus, my fate very much depends on the gold price.
If the coin market is good ... then good for everyone. I watch and i wait and I buy.
@Gazes said:
I am actually a real collector and love coins (you don't seem to--you think anyone who has money is wasting their time to collect?). I rarely post anything about my own collections but love discussing coins.
Why do you avoid posting about your own collections? I'd love to hear about what you collect
@Baley said:
There is Literally NO END to newly produced "coins"
People have said the same thing for condition rarity classic coins, without the quotes, due to gradeflation....
It has caused a number of classic coin collectors to move away from high grade condition rarities.
Classic coins are great, but there are similar issues that need to be dealt with.
the New Stuff cannot help but draw money that would otherwise go toward the more traditional, genuine obsolete collector coins that used to form the foundation of the hobby.
I will say that the "New Stuff" has protection against gradeflation, doctoring and paying education. Classic coin collecting is a caveat emptor mine field that takes some time to navigate. The new stuff allows collectors to dip their toes in without getting "educated", so I think it is a welcome, easy on ramp to collecting the old stuff where a lot more education (without quotes) is useful.
The fact that the hobby tolerates “education”, known doctors continue to operate for decades, and even one of the most respected dealers can boast about telling untruths to new collectors and severely degrading Coin Facts, serves as warning to new collectors of classic coins. I wouldn’t only blame the new stuff but look at why the old stuff can be off putting to someone new.
Classic coins are great, but it requires more learning than the new stuff.
Combined with the increasing focus on only the high end and especially the "right slab and sticker" market for the latter, those regular, nice -but -nothing -special items will continue to stagnate.
I think the Internet, pop reports, and registry contribute to the nice, but nothing special, items stagnating. For some classic areas I collect, I try to only buy top pop or just below (or absolutely rare or cheap). I do this because the transaction costs for upgrading can be very high. I wouldn't collect this way this without the pop reports, but I’m glad they exist.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@topstuf said:
$20 golds will do fine once the surplus from overseas stops. Great way to stack bullion.
The surplus is permanent. They aren't melting the coins. They are bullion now, they will be bullion 100 years from now. And if I'm stacking bullion, do I want 90% Liberties or Saints at $50 over spot or 100% maple leafs or buffaloes (or pick your favorite bullion coin) for $50 over spot?
There is no future for common date gold in anything less than Gem Unc as a collectible. 62/63 and even 64 Libs an Saints are not going to suddenly generate huge premiums over spot.
In my ever humble opinion.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@topstuf said:
$20 golds will do fine once the surplus from overseas stops. Great way to stack bullion.
The surplus is permanent. They aren't melting the coins. They are bullion now, they will be bullion 100 years from now. And if I'm stacking bullion, do I want 90% Liberties or Saints at $50 over spot or 100% maple leafs or buffaloes (or pick your favorite bullion coin) for $50 over spot?
There is no future for common date gold in anything less than Gem Unc as a collectible. 62/63 and even 64 Libs an Saints are not going to suddenly generate huge premiums over spot.
@Justacommeman said:
Quality never seems to go out of style
TDN has indicated gradeflation impacting his enjoyment of and pricing of quality coins, to the extent, he’s shifted his collecting interests.
No doubt there is some head wind. Always is. He’s also adding coins. Focus changes. I just know over the last 20+ years that Ive been involved in rare wine, coins, cars, sportscards that when it’s come time to sell I’ve done well on quality items over a longer holding horizon. There have been pitfalls In each of these colllecting areas. Always have to be vigaliant. There is always opportunity. There are always peaks and valleys. Same in housing.
Whenever I buy anything I try to buy things I know others might want more then me someday. Less trepidation that way. I also always try to buy things I really really like and that brings me joy. I don’t mind paying up for these things
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@topstuf said:
$20 golds will do fine once the surplus from overseas stops. Great way to stack bullion.
The surplus is permanent. They aren't melting the coins. They are bullion now, they will be bullion 100 years from now. And if I'm stacking bullion, do I want 90% Liberties or Saints at $50 over spot or 100% maple leafs or buffaloes (or pick your favorite bullion coin) for $50 over spot?
There is no future for common date gold in anything less than Gem Unc as a collectible. 62/63 and even 64 Libs an Saints are not going to suddenly generate huge premiums over spot.
In my ever humble opinion.
Like the GSA packs of those common CC Morgans?
I didn't say "suddenly."
hasn't it been common knowledge for decades that there were hundreds-of-thousands/millions of $20 Libs/Saints being held in European banks?? the slow trickle of repatriation seems to have speeded up and as jmlanzaf says, the coins have been reduced to bullion + and have nowhere to go but down even more till they all come home. no matter how that gets spun, no matter how much romantic glamour that's heaped on the coins, they have been reduced to bullion + except for the really scarce dates and the true gem coins.
eventually, submitters will stop sending them to be graded MS61-63, they'll just get "stacked" and shuffled around as 90% bullion.
@keets said:
hasn't it been common knowledge for decades that there were hundreds-of-thousands/millions of $20 Libs/Saints being held in European banks?? the slow trickle of repatriation seems to have speeded up and as jmlanzaf says, the coins have been reduced to bullion + and have nowhere to go but down even more till they all come home. no matter how that gets spun, no matter how much romantic glamour that's heaped on the coins, they have been reduced to bullion + except for the really scarce dates and the true gem coins.
eventually, submitters will stop sending them to be graded MS61-63, they'll just get "stacked" and shuffled around as 90% bullion.
who was ever wasting their money getting these graded? I get it at 300 an ounce gold but if you sent these in in the last 5 years someone should have power of attorney over you.
I suppose there are plenty of fools sending common date morgans in still that are literally worth $12 each. So compared to that its not so bad
My guess is that the 62/63 graded gold that you see or the results of people thinking they were 64+ coins. I agree that this old gold has basically turned into bullion. I buy raw or slabbed, all depends on the mark up over melt...when the mark up for slabbed is the same as raw, why not.
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
That's a great point CCGGG, I find myself thinking, "I'm not buying (rare slabbed and stickered ) coins at those prices", and at the same time, "Not selling nice but raw common coins at these prices!"
So I'm stuck, and not actively collecting at all. The need to ship coins to a slabber, and then a stickerer, to get what they're "worth", and then spend almost all of the extra premium on fees, postage, insurance, plus the time and aggravation, is a real turn off
who was ever wasting their money getting these graded
Bronco, I'm not making this up, if you look at the pop numbers for just PCGS it is ridiculous.
Lib's --- Type 3, With Motto, "TWENTY DOLLARS" on Reverse, MS60-63 --- 436,028!!!
Saint's --- Type 3, With Motto, MS60-63 --- 413,133!!!
my boss buys and sells a lot of Gold and you'd be astonished at how often sellers are walking into the shop with US Gold, $2.50/$5/$10/$20 Lib's, Indian's and Saint's that are in MS61-62 PCGS holders. we typically sell them for right around spot. collectors overall are enamored with Gold but the overwhelming majority of all US Gold struck since the Centennial should be considered as a widget and bought as jlmanzlaf says, bullion.
Comments
between 2000 and around 2012 it wasn't unusual to see the same coin(s) sell 2-3 times at auction, sometimes only a few years apart. prices during that period and the "market" were rising enough so the juice could be paid and a profit made. that isn't just on big rarities but also on lesser coins. after that time, prices slowed down and then started to fall back.
I wonder how easy it is for everyone to replace coins now compared to back then?? when you do find replacements, are they more expensive to buy every year, say from 2012-today, or are they the same or cheaper??
where are all the new collectors that everyone speaks about?? as our clearly "aged" Hobby shrinks via attrition, who exactly is filling that void and increasing the number of collectors?? my suspicion is that a specialty dealer such as DW is only seeing an increase because already active collectors he hasn't met/sold to are now doing two things: leaving areas where they traditionally collected and entering his niche. I say this because my experience is that "new collectors" don't typically enter this Hobby at the top end.
to follow up on that thought, I don't see new collectors entering the Hobby in more traditional areas.
a question --- what is everyone's definition of "nice coins" which gets used a lot in one form or another?? using my definition, I see that kind of stuff shrinking in volume. it goes without saying that stuff like that has eager buyers, it always has and always will have. that shouldn't be the gauge of a strong market, a better gauge should be how much of that stuff is there available. my answer --- not a whole lot and certainly nowhere near what could be found 10-15 years ago. collectors aren't selling that stuff, they're buying it when they can find it and then holding it.
dealers don't count in my sense of the equation, they buy as low as they can and sell for as high as they can, they don't buy to hold onto stuff. collectors are a better gauge because they tend to buy for a long hold time and only sell for one of three reasons --- out of need, when they can realize a nice gain or when they die.
to get an honest appraisal of the State of the Union, talk to a man on the street and not a Politician.
to get an honest appraisal of the Hobby, talk to a collector and not a dealer.
My main disagreement is your statement that "most of the coins in these four series aren't remotely hard to buy even in "high quality", except when narrow and arbitrary criteria is applied. In my post about the $5 and quarter Indian series, I said coins are very hard to find in gem and cac. I do not find these two criteria as "narrow and arbitrary". Collecting coins in MS-65 are higher is a common goal for collectors. To call the grading of a coin a narrow and arbitrary criteria seems to go against modern thinking that condition is of the utmost importance (early in coin collecting, collectors simply wanted one of everything and condition was far less important). The second criteria is CAC. Although some collectors have no interest in it due to the series they are collecting, etc---many collectors not only will pay a premium for CAC but only want CAC coins. Again even if you do not believe in CAC for yourself, using CAC as a criteria to help find coins solid for the grade and undoctored does not seem narrow or arbitrary.
If you think finding these coins is not rare, do an internet search and see how many MS 65 CAC Indian quarter eagles you can find? How many can you find in that grade that are not the more common dates?
Unfortunately the condition rarity argument has it’s limitations - so to is an early SAE silver eagle. It is rare also but only artificially so. Not trying to get in the middle of this but falling back on condition rarity IMO to support an argument has its limitations.
Well, just Love coins, period.
why do you care so much about whether millionaires are enjoying themselves? That more money than brains crowd has nothing to do with the way regular people collect.
ately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
LOL. I would have stated it more gently: you can't judge the entire market by the high end.
I know almost everyone on THIS forum want to reject the comparison of stamps to coins, but it was and still is apt. High end stamps still set records. The price of inverted Jennys have NOT dropped. But, at the same time, virtually EVERY U.S. STAMP in the catalog has dropped by a factor of 10 (TEN!) in price.
The price of an 1884/1885 Seated proof has nothing to do with the price of MS65 Morgan dollars.
And you can argue with me about the stamp metaphor, but if you say "stamps aren't money" or the equivalent, you've already lost the argument. Most coins on this forum are NOT money as we collect them. They are $12 in intrinsic value and $100+ (or $1 million) in "collectible premium". Stamps also have a face value. But, interestingly, if you are buying 32 cent stamps now, you pay 32 cents for the stamps and get a 16 cent rebate for negative collectible premium.
Silver dollars have been one of the most popular areas of the coin market for as long as I can remember. Yet, common date XF peace dollars are virtually bullion and 1921 Morgans aren't much better. While someone spent $4 million on one seated proof, so what? At the same time, regular folks have seen their MS65 Morgan dollar collection go down in value.
Try to sell Wheaties by date to collectors filling albums...there are hardly any left! I'd love to know what Whitman and Dansco sales volume has done over the last 25 years. I bet it is way down. Those people were the base of the coin market. They are the reason, frankly, that anyone cares about 16-D dimes or S-VDB cents. Without the hole fillers, type collectors would simply get an MS68 1941 Merc and be done with the whole series.
Look at the volume of proof sets sold annually by the Mint over the last 20 years. That was a retail product sold to a lot of people who considered themselves coin collectors. Where are they? Don't pretend that they all got smart all of a sudden and only collected Seated Dimes by die variety.
The coin market in total is NOT doing well, not at all. And the high end of the market is as useful as the price of Inverted Jennys is to the overall stamp market.
Remember this: PEOPLE GOT RICH DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION!!! Very very very rich. But MOST people were poor, very very poor.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I’m not sure “more money than brains” is fair. For self-made millionaires, a lot of their money is because they have brains. It might be more that they have enough brains they have money to splurge on hobbies like coins.
Of course, if you really want to say they have more money than brains, people may say the same thing about the vast majority of coin collectors, aside from dealers who make a living at it, that is.
If you make yourself rich that probably doesn't leave a lot of time for collecting nonsense and you are probably too smart to let a dealer pick your pockets with a cac sticker .
If your daddy was rich then he married a model and you are the proud owner of a room temperature IQ , hence more money than brains.
This installment of the weekly brown nose thread has been " rally the troops" . Next week will be the "isn't cac great" topic mark your calendar
I'm collecting oak leaves now , and I have a tree in my back yard . Jealous?
I certainly don’t believe the market is doing well overall and have mentioned it many times.
However, I think it’s unfair to generalize in a derogatory way. If anything, with the recent posts by Legend, it seems like new collectors were astute and using CoinFacts to refute the falsehood then they were being told.
Can you point to some collectors you're thinking of?
Dell Loy Hansen seems to be self-made. This is from his bio:
https://www.rsl.com/dell-loy-hansen
Unfortunately, if the articles are to be believed, you are in a rare minority that is saving at that level. And there are issues with many Americans even making that level of income.
Get your BADGE today!!!
and do a giveaway 
Because there are too many MARKET reports and not enough ...collector... reports.
From the bio I agree he is probably a self made guy which if my theory is correct will lead to him marrying a model and having stupid children. Those kids will inherit his coins but won't appreciate them and they will quickly be put up for sale to finance a trip to Ibiza . However if he marries his high school sweetheart then the kids might be ok.
Dealers won't love that guy he might be too smart for them but they will love his kids long time.
I'm not a dealer or an investor so I don't care i what the price guides say and find these threads somewhat tedious in their pendulum like regularity. I have a theory that rather than being a human the ID known as gazes is a digital representation of a south east asian click farm that is paid 3 tenths of a cent whenever CAC appears in a post on the internet. It doesn't sound like a lot of money but 4 or 5 of these threads a week and it adds up
The market is where your perspective is ...... as a buyer it feels very strong to me since everything I have on my list remain in strong hands with strong price
Some said the Comm silver is still down but it still seems high to me since the lowest point probably is higher
Oh well let me finish my Joe and give it serious thought later
I agree it’s not for many people, especially if you invest due to compounding. My point is that as easy as that sounds, many people don’t do it.
So many times life has it's way with us.
I am actually a real collector and love coins (you don't seem to--you think anyone who has money is wasting their time to collect?). I rarely post anything about my own collections but love discussing coins. Not sure why you think every thread I post is a CAC thread---my last threads I started are this one (my assessment that the market is good), and before that "can there be another pittman" and before that the importance of dealers quickly posting new purchases, etc. It is funny, everyone who accuses me of only discussing CAC are the people who always seem to bring CAC up! However, if you want to accuse me of being a fan of CAC---guilty as charged. Prior to CAC, I bought too many coins that were doctored and got sick of overgraded material. CAC is not perfect but it has significantly helped in these areas especially with gold coins. I could care less if you never buy a CAC coin--why do you care if I do? You say you are not a dealer or an investor or care what price guides say or what people say in these threads----great, go buy whatever you want! I'm funny, John Albanese's opinion actually matters to me. Have a great day!
I see what you did there ! you fit 7 CACs in that one paragraph , never a day off right ?
I never said it was a waste of time to collect , and no I don't hate coins I swear I'm not a dealer .
I collect circulated coins so I don't need to pay a tax on every coin to 3rd parties.
Though I am new to this forum, I am aware of what you are telling me of current US collector perception and practices. I am not trying to change your mind. Concurrently, you certainly aren't going to change mine, as I don't consider what you described to have any distinction whatsoever.
All collectors want to feel positive about what they bought and how much they paid. I get that. This is especially true of those who buy the most expensive coins which is why the criteria you described is of utmost importance.
I understand the financial importance of the TPG grade/CAC and don't dispute it because it's self-evident fact. I concurrently recognize it predominantly as a rationalization for an inflated price level because it certainly isn't remotely correlated to the quality for any expensive coin. Few if any buyers would pay these prices if they didn't believe they could get most, all or more or their money back. The 1914-S half eagle you profiled is interesting enough to many buyers at $60,000 as long as they don't lose a "noticeable" proportion of their outlay but not remotely otherwise.
I am aware everyone would rather buy superior over inferior coins, presumably don't want doctored coins and many prefer "originality". Buying solid for the grade coins is most important for expensive coins such as those you buy and is mostly an option for the buyer of common or relatively easy to buy coins.
Under current US practices, literally every single coin except for NCLT is "scarce" or "rare" in some grade or with some modifier. I have not checked the CAC data but if a large number of pre-1933 US are available in noticeable supply in MS-65 with this designation, then these coins are even more common than I thought.
I am going to put it another way. I read many threads like this one either lamenting the state of the market or trying to convince others it's not that bad.
I don't think it is that bad for the "high end" but given the external environment, I would expect it to be better or a lot better, if the merits of the financial promoters had any validity. GDP growth is respectable. Business profits are at or near an all-time high. The upper income and wealth tier are certainly doing very well. The stock market is in it's third incarnation of a mania since the late 1990's which never really ended. Many real estate markets are in another bubble. Most importantly, aggregate credit conditions have never been looser and credit standards have never been lower, not on a global scale.
Many are complaining about the "weak" US coin market and the US economy isn't even in an (official) recession and the financial markets have barely declined.
So the question I have now is, if any of you think the market is so weak now, what do you think is going to happen later when the economy experiences contraction and financial conditions tighten?
Let me answer it for you. If market health as reflected in the price level is actually substantially if not mostly dependent upon the combination of the TPG grade and the CAC sticker, the coin market longer term is actually in much worse shape than any of you think.
a market based on plastic and stickers is a house of cards.
There is Literally NO END to newly produced "coins" and it appears that the ballooning supply of precious metal NCLT, as well as the copy/replica/fantasy/tribute/
overstrike/counterfeit material that is so popular in the seemingly sanctioned spam thread here, and how easy it is to artificially tone and profit from otherwise common coins, the New Stuff cannot help but draw money that would otherwise go toward the more traditional, genuine obsolete collector coins that used to form the foundation of the hobby.
Combined with the increasing focus on only the high end and especially the "right slab and sticker" market for the latter, those regular, nice -but -nothing -special items will continue to stagnate.
If metals were to severely decline (if there were economic asteroid or ocean mining, for example) then even the prettiest bullion will drive almost everything far lower.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
In my world (US $20 gold piece) the coin market is dead.
When I first started buying coins, the Gold LIbs ms 63 cost about $200 over the gold price. Today, coins can be bought under a $100 premium. ST 62's were my preferred buy. Today, 64 -65 are where I am buying.
I even bought a few CC's , New Orleans, shipwrecks, rare dates, and the premiums fell significantly on those as well.
Looking back over the past 8 years, I saw gold top out @ $1900. today it's $1300. over the same time span the S& P's have more than doubled. There is little interest in gold based on the sales of new 1 oz gold coin from the mint.
Dealers are selling their gold at very low premiums in order to keep buying the newly minted coins plus the resales that keep coming in from the public. I walked into a major coin dealer's shop and as soon as I walked in the door he asked me "how many $20 am I trying to sell?" I had none but I am still haunted by his question.
So, I am still buying the coins at very, very low premiums and have not seen any recovery in premiums. Thus, my fate very much depends on the gold price.
If the coin market is good ... then good for everyone. I watch and i wait and I buy.
$20 golds will do fine once the surplus from overseas stops. Great way to stack bullion.
Why do you avoid posting about your own collections? I'd love to hear about what you collect
People have said the same thing for condition rarity classic coins, without the quotes, due to gradeflation....
It has caused a number of classic coin collectors to move away from high grade condition rarities.
Classic coins are great, but there are similar issues that need to be dealt with.
I will say that the "New Stuff" has protection against gradeflation, doctoring and paying education. Classic coin collecting is a caveat emptor mine field that takes some time to navigate. The new stuff allows collectors to dip their toes in without getting "educated", so I think it is a welcome, easy on ramp to collecting the old stuff where a lot more education (without quotes) is useful.
The fact that the hobby tolerates “education”, known doctors continue to operate for decades, and even one of the most respected dealers can boast about telling untruths to new collectors and severely degrading Coin Facts, serves as warning to new collectors of classic coins. I wouldn’t only blame the new stuff but look at why the old stuff can be off putting to someone new.
Classic coins are great, but it requires more learning than the new stuff.
I think the Internet, pop reports, and registry contribute to the nice, but nothing special, items stagnating. For some classic areas I collect, I try to only buy top pop or just below (or absolutely rare or cheap). I do this because the transaction costs for upgrading can be very high. I wouldn't collect this way this without the pop reports, but I’m glad they exist.
Quality never seems to go out of style
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The surplus is permanent. They aren't melting the coins. They are bullion now, they will be bullion 100 years from now. And if I'm stacking bullion, do I want 90% Liberties or Saints at $50 over spot or 100% maple leafs or buffaloes (or pick your favorite bullion coin) for $50 over spot?
There is no future for common date gold in anything less than Gem Unc as a collectible. 62/63 and even 64 Libs an Saints are not going to suddenly generate huge premiums over spot.
In my ever humble opinion.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I'll take the old $20's.
TDN has indicated gradeflation is impacting his enjoyment of and pricing of quality coins, to the extent he’s shifted his collecting interests.
No doubt there is some head wind. Always is. He’s also adding coins. Focus changes. I just know over the last 20+ years that Ive been involved in rare wine, coins, cars, sportscards that when it’s come time to sell I’ve done well on quality items over a longer holding horizon. There have been pitfalls In each of these colllecting areas. Always have to be vigaliant. There is always opportunity. There are always peaks and valleys. Same in housing.
Whenever I buy anything I try to buy things I know others might want more then me someday. Less trepidation that way. I also always try to buy things I really really like and that brings me joy. I don’t mind paying up for these things
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Like the GSA packs of those common CC Morgans?
I didn't say "suddenly."
And let's not ignore the differences in reporting requirements between "straight bullion" and collectible coins.
they can easily define away the "reporting requirement" difference by defining "bullion" to include $20 coins that trade near spot.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
tible. 62/63 and even 64 Libs an Saints are not going to suddenly generate huge premiums over spot.
There are many Morgans that have never recovered in price from the release of the government hoard.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
hasn't it been common knowledge for decades that there were hundreds-of-thousands/millions of $20 Libs/Saints being held in European banks?? the slow trickle of repatriation seems to have speeded up and as jmlanzaf says, the coins have been reduced to bullion + and have nowhere to go but down even more till they all come home. no matter how that gets spun, no matter how much romantic glamour that's heaped on the coins, they have been reduced to bullion + except for the really scarce dates and the true gem coins.
eventually, submitters will stop sending them to be graded MS61-63, they'll just get "stacked" and shuffled around as 90% bullion.
who was ever wasting their money getting these graded? I get it at 300 an ounce gold but if you sent these in in the last 5 years someone should have power of attorney over you.
I suppose there are plenty of fools sending common date morgans in still that are literally worth $12 each. So compared to that its not so bad
I wouldn't but...
I also would not buy bullion that isn't TPG graded.
Too much Chinese stuff out there.
My Saint Set
stop it
I buy bullion non stop none of it has ever been in a slab
I've also heard some of the Europe buyers comment that there's lots of counterfeit in Europe, in addition to the Chinese stuff.
Except there's also Chinese slabs...so....
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
My guess is that the 62/63 graded gold that you see or the results of people thinking they were 64+ coins. I agree that this old gold has basically turned into bullion. I buy raw or slabbed, all depends on the mark up over melt...when the mark up for slabbed is the same as raw, why not.
Once they can fake a slab with a True-View saint inside that matches the verification, I'm done.
My Saint Set
I read through most of these posts but I'm still not convinced that the coin market is doing so well. Okay maybe, but not great. As a collector, I've found it to be a buyers market in the past few years but that has also presented me with a problem. A doubled-edged sword, so to speak.
I have been able to upgrade my collection with some nice coins (but still hard to find) My problem is when I do upgrade, I'm "stuck" holding the lower grade coins since I'm not willing to sell at the current prices. e.g. $20k to $30k coins for 20% under sheet.
I suspect others are doing the same and I'm guessing that it's "one of the reasons" why it's so hard to find a lot of good stuff on the market these days.
That's a great point CCGGG, I find myself thinking, "I'm not buying (rare slabbed and stickered ) coins at those prices", and at the same time, "Not selling nice but raw common coins at these prices!"
So I'm stuck, and not actively collecting at all. The need to ship coins to a slabber, and then a stickerer, to get what they're "worth", and then spend almost all of the extra premium on fees, postage, insurance, plus the time and aggravation, is a real turn off
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
who was ever wasting their money getting these graded
Bronco, I'm not making this up, if you look at the pop numbers for just PCGS it is ridiculous.
Lib's --- Type 3, With Motto, "TWENTY DOLLARS" on Reverse, MS60-63 --- 436,028!!!
Saint's --- Type 3, With Motto, MS60-63 --- 413,133!!!
my boss buys and sells a lot of Gold and you'd be astonished at how often sellers are walking into the shop with US Gold, $2.50/$5/$10/$20 Lib's, Indian's and Saint's that are in MS61-62 PCGS holders. we typically sell them for right around spot. collectors overall are enamored with Gold but the overwhelming majority of all US Gold struck since the Centennial should be considered as a widget and bought as jlmanzlaf says, bullion.