@WCC said:
I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
So much to address in this thread. I'll start with this. I have met many sophisticated collectors over the years who have consistently done well with their purchases, and it is not by accident. Yes, the average collector should expect to lose something if the market hasn't changed. But not all collectors are average.
I am aware of what you are telling me. It is substantially related to the long term asset bubble which has inflated the value of all asset classes to unprecedented levels.
IMHO, the asset inflation of which you speak is based on two things. The first is ultra-low unnaturally forced interest rates, which cannot be sustained. The other is technological progress, which cannot be stopped. So in the short run, you'll get to be right for a while, but you're going to be wrong in the long run.
True
I should have added that I inferred the collectors you reference probably represent maybe one out of several hundred, at most. For example, I recall the 1839 Una & the Lion 5 Sov selling for about $25k at a Goldberg auction in 2005. Now, it sells for about $250k and I have seen noticeable appreciation in other British proof gold over this time as well. So yes, I can see that the collectors you know could have done very well buying into a segment such as this one.
When South Africa was my primary series, I was able to do very well for a short time but the limited scale made it impossible for me to find quality coins in sufficient volume. The price level also precluded an equivalent windfall to the example I gave or in segments within US coinage.
Generically though, the primary disconnect I see by collectors who express these sentiments on this forum is that have a higher opinion of what they own than the market. Yes, the coins are much better than what most collectors buy but there is still no reason to expect that it will persistently appreciate as it will price out an increasing proportion of the collectors base.
You state that collectors on this forum "have a higher opinion of what they own than the market." Quite frankly as you describe your interest in other country's coins, one could say the same thing about you. You seem like an intelligent and polite collector but I simply dont understand why if you are interested in non US material why you spend most your time talking about only negative aspects of US collecting and essentially saying that almost everything "we" US collectors enjoy is not even close to being rare regardless of what we collect. Again, nothing personal but the large number of posts on these subjects by a non US collector is somewhat puzzling.
Sorry for the long post but I want to provide you a proper reply.
I am not the one who complains about the price performance of the coins I collect. I have also never claimed or implied that the coins I collect should (or will) be worth a lot more. The coins I collect don't sell for anywhere near the prices of the US coins which are discussed by members like you either. If I ever showed you what I have and you are impartial, I don't see how you could claim that what I collect isn't a much better collectible value than any US coin remotely in the same price range. In my prior reply to you, the claim I made for the coins I collect is accurate.
In this instance, I infer that you took that quote from my post out of context. The point of the comment was in relation to those who might think it is unusual to lose money when they sell their coins. There is nothing unusual about it and no reason to expect otherwise. Why would anyone expect anything else?
Your statement about my rarity claims is not correct. In a prior post, I gave you an answer with specific examples. If you are now referring to the criteria used today based upon TPG grade, that's not an actual scarcity. It is an exaggeration.
I can agree with you that I can reduce the number of comments and I will try to do that. Concurrently, I think that US collectors who collect some coins profiled here need a reality check when it comes to the financial prospects.
As one example, in a prior post here, you mentioned a 1914-S 64+ CAC being worth $60,000 but the same idea applies to much cheaper coins. There are two main reasons why anyone will pay large price spreads. Overwhelmingly,they expect to sell it for more later. Second, in their peer group of collectors, it is viewed as a status symbol. Otherwise, the vast majority will buy a much cheaper example.
I know you disagree with me. What you need to consider is that, absent persistently increasing prices, why do you believe that this coinage will retain current buyer interest later at today's price level? If you have a reason, I am all ears to hear it because I have never read one anywhere.
I don't dislike US coins. I just have a different opinion of the price prospects for most of the higher quality more expensive coinage than you do. I think highly of coins like the 1861 CSA half, Texas jolas, Territorial issues...I also like many federal issues but it has nothing to do with the price, the TPG grade or whether CAC beaned it. You and many others assign significance to that. Other than financial, I do not as it has nothing to do with collecting. If the price level weren't so inflated, I would be collecting US coins now because that's what I used to collect in the past.
I tend to agree with WCC that the premiums paid for extreme quality US coins tend to be exaggerated, especially compared to most world coins. But just because a premium is high doesn’t automatically mean that it’s not justified, or that chasing the best is not a worthwhile pursuit.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@WCC said:
I am not the one who complains about the price performance of the coins I collect....
...If the price level weren't so inflated, I would be collecting US coins now because that's what I used to collect in the past.
Well...that's basically what I got out of all of it.
Now I'd like to officially complain about the price of a MS65 1930-S saint for those of you who care.
I think it's just too darn inflated
And I'm not going to collect it!...So THERE!
As one example, in a prior post here, you mentioned a 1914-S 64+ CAC being worth $60,000 but the same idea applies to much cheaper coins. There are two main reasons why anyone will pay large price spreads. Overwhelmingly,they expect to sell it for more later. Second, in their peer group of collectors, it is viewed as a status symbol. Otherwise, the vast majority will buy a much cheaper example.
I think one thing to me that stands out with your opinions is that you state them as fact. For instance, you state that there are two reasons to buy a coin with a large price spread: 1) to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I have bought such coins and although I would like to make money on any purchase, it was not the motivating factor. Further, I did not buy the coin as a status symbol since I rarely display or even discuss my own coins. Rather I purchased those types of coins because as collector of the series I recognized the true beauty of a coin that stood out from others due to its originality, its appearance and condition, and the difficulty of finding such examples. My hunch is that there are others like me and that helps explain part of the reason for the price spreads.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
Another point, you state that a 1911-D quarter eagle is common. There is more to it than that. Doug Winter wrote an interesting article back in 2006 about the 1911-D date. This was during a period when the series was hyped. He pointed out more than a decade ago that the number of 1911-Ds in properly graded 63 and 64 exceeded the demand and the price at the time was overvalued (and he was right). He also said that a 1911-D properly graded in 65 was truly a rare coin and its value of about $80,000 made sense. This is where I take exception with your claim of arbitrary categories when I mention these coins in GEM and CAC are scarce. The last 1911-D quarter eagle in NGC 65 CAC traded at $78,000 in 2018. My guess is that a PCGS 65 CAC would trade far higher. My point was that Doug 12 years ago was correct---in 63 and 64 the prices were overvalued but not in 65 where it has held its value in cases where it was properly graded. So blanket statements that 1911-D are common is misleading.
One other thing----pricing and rarity do not always make sense. I had lunch with one of the most well known coin experts in the US and we discussed a type set by key date. He pointed out that many keys are not rare such as the 1916-D dime. However, there is always demand for this date for whatever reason. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
Another point, you state that a 1911-D quarter eagle is common. There is more to it than that. Doug Winter wrote an interesting article back in 2006 about the 1911-D date. This was during a period when the series was hyped. He pointed out more than a decade ago that the number of 1911-Ds in properly graded 63 and 64 exceeded the demand and the price at the time was overvalued (and he was right). He also said that a 1911-D properly graded in 65 was truly a rare coin and its value of about $80,000 made sense. This is where I take exception with your claim of arbitrary categories when I mention these coins in GEM and CAC are scarce. The last 1911-D quarter eagle in NGC 65 CAC traded at $78,000 in 2018. My guess is that a PCGS 65 CAC would trade far higher. My point was that Doug 12 years ago was correct---in 63 and 64 the prices were overvalued but not in 65 where it has held its value in cases where it was properly graded. So blanket statements that 1911-D are common is misleading.
One other thing----pricing and rarity do not always make sense. I had lunch with one of the most well known coin experts in the US and we discussed a type set by key date. He pointed out that many keys are not rare such as the 1916-D dime. However, there is always demand for this date for whatever reason. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
Now all those 63-and 64 coins are gradeflated to 65 problem solved !!!!!!! Might have required submitting a coin a dozen times but for the middlemen its all upside cha-ching !!!!
In other news the old 65 is now a 67. Now is the fight for 67's on? Move those goalposts cha-ching get those coin nerds to start peeing on each others pant legs again . Middlemen rejoice!!!
True story, it's more financially rewarding to be a shepherd than a sheep.
circ or uncirc is a pretty firm line the rest is nonsense invented to line someones pockets . It's marketing drivel
. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
Always is a long time. People used to say the same of $5 Columbian stamps - much scarcer than 1916-D dimes. Then the price dropped by 80% when demand dropped. I see no reason other than nostalgia or date/mintmark collecting for why anyone would want a 1916-D dime in any grade. So if date/mintmark collecting and/or nostalgia fades, there's no reason the price of 16-D dimes couldn't come WAY down. They are not rare or even scarce with tens of thousands available.
circ or uncirc is a pretty firm line the rest is nonsense invented to line someones pockets . It's marketing drivel
There are very few "firm lines" in coin grading, just as there is no firm line between healthy and harmful cynicism, or funny and mean sarcasm. That said, much of your sentiment has ring of truth
circ or uncirc is a pretty firm line the rest is nonsense invented to line someones pockets . It's marketing drivel
There are very few "firm lines" in coin grading, just as there is no firm line between healthy and harmful cynicism, or funny and mean sarcasm. That said, much of your sentiment has ring of truth
over the line , was a little mean
as far as circ or uncirc I meant mostly anyone can tell that , whereas buying a 65 instead of a 64 is really just a crapshoot . Good day for a random submitter , grader had an eyelash in his eye sorry try again , maybe sent in when grading was tight or loose. Or .....sent in 15 times until it gets the "right" grade . The idea that someone would spend thousands based on such trivia is silly. Dealers , coin doctors , crackout experts get rich off this idea all at collectors expense.
Collecting can be joyful , like the warmth of believing in a higher power . Slabbing stickering upgrading selling duplicates at a loss ? Thats the soul sucking cold of organized religion , collection plate shoved in my face , hands in my wallet , people telling me how to live and what to think , so called experts drunk exercising power over others.
. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
Always is a long time. People used to say the same of $5 Columbian stamps - much scarcer than 1916-D dimes. Then the price dropped by 80% when demand dropped. I see no reason other than nostalgia or date/mintmark collecting for why anyone would want a 1916-D dime in any grade. So if date/mintmark collecting and/or nostalgia fades, there's no reason the price of 16-D dimes couldn't come WAY down. They are not rare or even scarce with tens of thousands available.
I agree with your comment about "always is a long time". Nothing is absolute. My main point is that there is a lot more to pricing, scarcity and value then simply looking at mintage and census. There are many cases where a Dahlonega quarter eagle sells for more than a Charlotte quarter eagle where the Charlotte coin is clearly more rare. Even more examples when one uses the same comparison but a Philly quarter eagle instead of a Charlotte quarter eagle. Does it mean that the Dahlonega quarter eagle is over valued? no. It just means there are other things going on (i.e demand, reputation, the story behind the Dahlonega mint, history, etc). The collectors who pay the premium for the Dahlonega coin are not necessarily foolish for paying the premium nor are they show offs for paying more for these coins. The US coin market is a big market. Clearly there are some coins that are grossly undervalued or overvalued but simply comparing our market to a foreign one or using just mintages/census is an over simplification.
I agree with your comment about "always is a long time". Nothing is absolute. My main point is that there is a lot more to pricing, scarcity and value then simply looking at mintage and census. There are many cases where a Dahlonega quarter eagle sells for more than a Charlotte quarter eagle where the Charlotte coin is clearly more rare. Even more examples when one uses the same comparison but a Philly quarter eagle instead of a Charlotte quarter eagle. Does it mean that the Dahlonega quarter eagle is over valued? no. It just means there are other things going on (i.e demand, reputation, the story behind the Dahlonega mint, history, etc). The collectors who pay the premium for the Dahlonega coin are not necessarily foolish for paying the premium nor are they show offs for paying more for these coins. The US coin market is a big market. Clearly there are some coins that are grossly undervalued or overvalued but simply comparing our market to a foreign one or using just mintages/census is an over simplification.
This part I definitely agree with, but it represents the current emotion in the hobby. That could easily change across generations. That was my only point. I've long argued against date/mintmark collecting as nothing but designed redundancy. If 100% of the collector base became type collectors, key dates would no longer be key to anyone.
Similar emotion applies to GSA CC dollars which are far from rare yet always command a premium. Nostalgia for the Old West, perhaps.
This is a very interesting thread with very insightful and thought provoking responses.
All I can contribute is my observation of some local coin shows I have attended over the past year.
At all of these shows (maybe 3-4) that I have attended, there were fairly large crowds when I attended. How much buying and selling was going on; what the buy and sell prices were compared to those of 10-20 years ago; and what type of material was being bought and sold was unknown to me. However there did not seem to be a lack of persons walking the bourses at the shows. There was also good attendance at the shows by dealers as there were not very many empty tables on the bourses at the shows.
The people attending the shows was what one would normally expect, mostly male and mostly older (40+). There were a number of younger persons (under 40) at the shows and there was a variety of racial and ethnic backgrounds present at the shows.
I would expect that the hobby will continue in the decades ahead, though it will not be the same as a cashless society becomes more of the norm. People will always collect. Coins have many attributes that make them appealing as a collectible (precious metal, "money", history, art, small size, portability, etc.). Younger persons will eventually take an interest in this area of collectibles.
circ or uncirc is a pretty firm line the rest is nonsense invented to line someones pockets . It's marketing drivel
There are very few "firm lines" in coin grading, just as there is no firm line between healthy and harmful cynicism, or funny and mean sarcasm. That said, much of your sentiment has ring of truth
over the line , was a little mean
as far as circ or uncirc I meant mostly anyone can tell that , whereas buying a 65 instead of a 64 is really just a crapshoot . Good day for a random submitter , grader had an eyelash in his eye sorry try again , maybe sent in when grading was tight or loose. Or .....sent in 15 times until it gets the "right" grade . The idea that someone would spend thousands based on such trivia is silly.
Buying the number and not the coin would indeed be silly. Buying the better coin often makes all the sense in the world. Of course, it's hard to know if you're actually buying the better coin if you don't know how to grade for yourself, or have good advisors.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
As one example, in a prior post here, you mentioned a 1914-S 64+ CAC being worth $60,000 but the same idea applies to much cheaper coins. There are two main reasons why anyone will pay large price spreads. Overwhelmingly,they expect to sell it for more later. Second, in their peer group of collectors, it is viewed as a status symbol. Otherwise, the vast majority will buy a much cheaper example.
I think one thing to me that stands out with your opinions is that you state them as fact. For instance, you state that there are two reasons to buy a coin with a large price spread: 1) to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I have bought such coins and although I would like to make money on any purchase, it was not the motivating factor. Further, I did not buy the coin as a status symbol since I rarely display or even discuss my own coins. Rather I purchased those types of coins because as collector of the series I recognized the true beauty of a coin that stood out from others due to its originality, its appearance and condition, and the difficulty of finding such examples. My hunch is that there are others like me and that helps explain part of the reason for the price spreads.
Yes, I do have a tendency to do what you state. It is just my writing style.
My comments are generic and are not intended to apply to every collector. What I am attempting to explain to you is that the overwhelmingly majority are likely motivated by the financial aspect. Are you trying to tell me that you find the coins I am describing so interesting that you don't mind losing a substantial proportion of your outlay? Or is it that you really believe you will get most, all or even more of your money back? I'm not questioning your motive but I absolutely don't believe it as a general principle because it makes no sense.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
Another point, you state that a 1911-D quarter eagle is common. There is more to it than that. Doug Winter wrote an interesting article back in 2006 about the 1911-D date. This was during a period when the series was hyped. He pointed out more than a decade ago that the number of 1911-Ds in properly graded 63 and 64 exceeded the demand and the price at the time was overvalued (and he was right). He also said that a 1911-D properly graded in 65 was truly a rare coin and its value of about $80,000 made sense. This is where I take exception with your claim of arbitrary categories when I mention these coins in GEM and CAC are scarce. The last 1911-D quarter eagle in NGC 65 CAC traded at $78,000 in 2018. My guess is that a PCGS 65 CAC would trade far higher. My point was that Doug 12 years ago was correct---in 63 and 64 the prices were overvalued but not in 65 where it has held its value in cases where it was properly graded. So blanket statements that 1911-D are common is misleading.
One other thing----pricing and rarity do not always make sense. I had lunch with one of the most well known coin experts in the US and we discussed a type set by key date. He pointed out that many keys are not rare such as the 1916-D dime. However, there is always demand for this date for whatever reason. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
I am aware of how US collectors think and just disagree with it. I find it pure exaggeration and the reason I do is because practically every single coin is scarce or rare under the criteria you describe. The exceptions would be recent NCLT and proof sets. So out of maybe 250,000 coins ever struck, something on the order of 95% qualify in some grade or with some modifier. What kind of significance is that?
I am not trying to change your mind or offend you. If you disagree with my opinions, I have no problem with it. The reason I disagree with you is because I consider what you described to be a contrived significance. Collectibles and artwork shouldn't need such trivial attributes on which to base the significance.
As for foreign coins,, I don't expect any non-US coins to be worth a US price solely or even primarily due to its scarcity. To believe that is contrary to how collectors actually act. To the contrary, elsewhere I have argued against the idea that collecting elsewhere will ever resemble the US and this includes the price level. The only realistic exceptions are in countries with extended traditions of collecting.
@WCC said:
I am not the one who complains about the price performance of the coins I collect....
...If the price level weren't so inflated, I would be collecting US coins now because that's what I used to collect in the past.
Well...that's basically what I got out of all of it.
Now I'd like to officially complain about the price of a MS65 1930-S saint for those of you who care.
I think it's just too darn inflated
And I'm not going to collect it!...So THERE!
What I meant by this quote you extracted is that back in 1998 when I resumed collecting, I initially considered collecting US coinage but didn't because of my opinion of the relative value proposition. If I had collected US coins then, there is a good chance I'd still be doing so now. I certainly have no regrets that I collect something else now and wouldn't switch even if the US price level were a lot lower.
I don’t believe cashless society will be norm unless oppression.
At shows I take cash, gold coins at melt and certified coins at bluesheet. Dealer / Preacher Ben from Louisiana only does cash as he has had another bankruptcy. Many more are living off the grid as they have rejected the digital world. He is a workers rights and anti plastic activist and believes cashless system the mark of the beast as foretold in Revelations.
Were an enemy like Russia or Iran successful in detonating an emp weapon over US cashless system wb toast.
As one example, in a prior post here, you mentioned a 1914-S 64+ CAC being worth $60,000 but the same idea applies to much cheaper coins. There are two main reasons why anyone will pay large price spreads. Overwhelmingly,they expect to sell it for more later. Second, in their peer group of collectors, it is viewed as a status symbol. Otherwise, the vast majority will buy a much cheaper example.
I think one thing to me that stands out with your opinions is that you state them as fact. For instance, you state that there are two reasons to buy a coin with a large price spread: 1) to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I have bought such coins and although I would like to make money on any purchase, it was not the motivating factor. Further, I did not buy the coin as a status symbol since I rarely display or even discuss my own coins. Rather I purchased those types of coins because as collector of the series I recognized the true beauty of a coin that stood out from others due to its originality, its appearance and condition, and the difficulty of finding such examples. My hunch is that there are others like me and that helps explain part of the reason for the price spreads.
Yes, I do have a tendency to do what you state. It is just my writing style.
My comments are generic and are not intended to apply to every collector. What I am attempting to explain to you is that the overwhelmingly majority are likely motivated by the financial aspect. Are you trying to tell me that you find the coins I am describing so interesting that you don't mind losing a substantial proportion of your outlay? Or is it that you really believe you will get most, all or even more of your money back? I'm not questioning your motive but I absolutely don't believe it as a general principle because it makes no sense.
My response concerned your statement that people by a coin with a large price spread for two reasons: 1 to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I pointed out that neither was my main motivation. You followed up asking:
1) whether I don't mind losing a substantial proportion of my outlay?
2) do you really believe you will get most or all your money back?
As I said before financial motives are not my main priority. I realize if I wanted to maximize my finanicial return, rather than buying a five figure coin I would on average do better simply buying a S & P 500 index fund. So if investment return was my main motivation, I would not buy the coin. On the other hand, that doesn't mean I am going to spend five figures on a coin with the knowledge that I will lose 1/2 my outlay. So yes, I do think I will get most or all my money back or even make a profit.
Not only do I think that but I have done that on occasion. I have noticed when I first got into coins and sold, I took a huge hit. As I became more knowledgable, a 10% hit was not uncommon. Thereafter, I started realizing that I wasn't losing money when I sold. What happened was over the years I learned from my mistakes.
I get the sense from your comments that you think a bit like I use to. When I only focused on liberty quarter eagles it was not uncommon to see a date that only had 6 or 7 in UNC and maybe the same AU 58. The MS 62 that was condition census may trade for $8000. I would see other series where there were literally hundreds of coins in UNC and the condition census may be $50,000 and a lower grade UNC was $12,000 and I could not figure it out. However, over time I have seen that the market is not so simple as looking at mintage and census. There is far more that goes into pricing. These coins that I once thought were overvalued, I now understand their value and many of them have a much better chance of doubling in value then say my liberty quarter eagle in MS 62.
However, at the end of the day I love coin collecting, love the challenge, the search, and the history. That is my main motive and if I make a few dollars all the better. Often people say if you take a job to make a lot of money you will probably fail. If you take a job that you love, often you will do far better and make more than you ever thought. I find that holds true with coins. The more passionate I have become about coins, the better I have done.
I get the sense from your comments that you think a bit like I use to. When I only focused on liberty quarter eagles it was not uncommon to see a date that only had 6 or 7 in UNC and maybe the same AU 58. The MS 62 that was condition census may trade for $8000. I would see other series where there were literally hundreds of coins in UNC and the condition census may be $50,000 and a lower grade UNC was $12,000 and I could not figure it out. However, over time I have seen that the market is not so simple as looking at mintage and census. There is far more that goes into pricing. These coins that I once thought were overvalued, I now understand their value and many of them have a much better chance of doubling in value then say my liberty quarter eagle in MS 62.
This market you describe is just some concerted effort to steal your paycheck. Its predicated on a certain mental state of the mark. The state being a tendency to think you are too smart to get grifted and the conditioned response is to double down on a bad decision. Don't abandon the game just try harder
Like a 3 card monte game on the street corner where the mark keeps guessing wrong but it only makes them more determined. They only stop when the wallet is empty.
Who benefits if one grade higher is twice as much? Hint , its not the collector . The actual benefit of owning a slightly better something than the next yahoo to the end user is precisely zero. Along the way however the parasites all get to dip their beaks over and over.
@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.
Maybe a date or type set of high quality.
Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
Another point, you state that a 1911-D quarter eagle is common. There is more to it than that. Doug Winter wrote an interesting article back in 2006 about the 1911-D date. This was during a period when the series was hyped. He pointed out more than a decade ago that the number of 1911-Ds in properly graded 63 and 64 exceeded the demand and the price at the time was overvalued (and he was right). He also said that a 1911-D properly graded in 65 was truly a rare coin and its value of about $80,000 made sense. This is where I take exception with your claim of arbitrary categories when I mention these coins in GEM and CAC are scarce. The last 1911-D quarter eagle in NGC 65 CAC traded at $78,000 in 2018. My guess is that a PCGS 65 CAC would trade far higher. My point was that Doug 12 years ago was correct---in 63 and 64 the prices were overvalued but not in 65 where it has held its value in cases where it was properly graded. So blanket statements that 1911-D are common is misleading.
One other thing----pricing and rarity do not always make sense. I had lunch with one of the most well known coin experts in the US and we discussed a type set by key date. He pointed out that many keys are not rare such as the 1916-D dime. However, there is always demand for this date for whatever reason. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
I am aware of how US collectors think and just disagree with it. I find it pure exaggeration and the reason I do is because practically every single coin is scarce or rare under the criteria you describe. The exceptions would be recent NCLT and proof sets. So out of maybe 250,000 coins ever struck, something on the order of 95% qualify in some grade or with some modifier. What kind of significance is that?
I am not trying to change your mind or offend you. If you disagree with my opinions, I have no problem with it. The reason I disagree with you is because I consider what you described to be a contrived significance. Collectibles and artwork shouldn't need such trivial attributes on which to base the significance.
As for foreign coins,, I don't expect any non-US coins to be worth a US price solely or even primarily due to its scarcity. To believe that is contrary to how collectors actually act. To the contrary, elsewhere I have argued against the idea that collecting elsewhere will ever resemble the US and this includes the price level. The only realistic exceptions are in countries with extended traditions of collecting.
I guess we can agree to disagree here. I do not think that my two criteria--gem and CAC are "trivial attributes." The grade of a coin especially in MS 65 or better is a criteria. You state it is a "contrived significance" and I disagree. I see a big difference in coins that are in gem or better and appreciate them. I will say that your thinking was the thought in early collections where collectors focused on obtaining the coin they wanted without concern for the condition. However over time the modern thinking is that condition matters. This trend seems to have become more important, not less. It is hard for me to imagine that one day the grade of the coin will be a minor factor that most collectors seem to think is trivial. Certainly there are times where a price difference between a 64 and 65 wont make sense. However, there should be a price difference because an accurately graded 65 that is solid for the grade, original and attractive should be more desirable to most than a 64.
d buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
I guess we can agree to disagree here. I do not think that my two criteria--gem and CAC are "trivial attributes." The grade of a coin especially in MS 65 or better is a criteria. You state it is a "contrived significance" and I disagree. I see a big difference in coins that are in gem or better and appreciate them. I will say that your thinking was the thought in early collections where collectors focused on obtaining the coin they wanted without concern for the condition. However over time the modern thinking is that condition matters. This trend seems to have become more important, not less. It is hard for me to imagine that one day the grade of the coin will be a minor factor that most collectors seem to think is trivial. Certainly there are times where a price difference between a 64 and 65 wont make sense. However, there should be a price difference because an accurately graded 65 that is solid for the grade, original and attractive should be more desirable to most than a 64.
Honestly, I kind of agree with both of you. The market is what the market is. Gem CAC means something and has value in the market. BUT, that doesn't make it rational. It just makes it a fact.
I saw an AU58 gold CAC coin sell last week for MS63 money. Ludicrous in many ways. BUT, the market is what it is.
The fact is, I would much rather own an XF45 gold coin for $500 than the same coin Gem CAC for $25,000. Why? I don't want to park that much money in a collectible that has no compounded return and could go down in value. The XF 45 coin has limited downside and still represents the series. But that's just MY preference.
I would advise anyone AGAINST buying S-VDB cents or 16-D dimes. EVER. In any grade. Other than a dealer to flip. Why? I don't think anyone should EVER collect by date/mintmark. It's expensive and creates redundancy. In my mind, you are always better with a 68 FB late date merc than an AU 16-D. It is a pretter representation of the series and only differs by two numbers and a mintmark. But the market and many individuals don't believe that and I'm not going to tell them they are wrong. I'm just going to tell them that it isn't what I would do. [As if they care....LOL]
d buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
I guess we can agree to disagree here. I do not think that my two criteria--gem and CAC are "trivial attributes." The grade of a coin especially in MS 65 or better is a criteria. You state it is a "contrived significance" and I disagree. I see a big difference in coins that are in gem or better and appreciate them. I will say that your thinking was the thought in early collections where collectors focused on obtaining the coin they wanted without concern for the condition. However over time the modern thinking is that condition matters. This trend seems to have become more important, not less. It is hard for me to imagine that one day the grade of the coin will be a minor factor that most collectors seem to think is trivial. Certainly there are times where a price difference between a 64 and 65 wont make sense. However, there should be a price difference because an accurately graded 65 that is solid for the grade, original and attractive should be more desirable to most than a 64.
Honestly, I kind of agree with both of you. The market is what the market is. Gem CAC means something and has value in the market. BUT, that doesn't make it rational. It just makes it a fact.
There are many things about coin pricing that don't necessarily make sense. For instance, a super rare smaller coin often trades for far less than the same coin that is larger. Why should a coin that has a tiny survival rate and is one of only a few in UNC trade for less than a much more common $20 gold coin simply because the coin is bigger. As you say, the market is what the market is and its just a fact.
As one example, in a prior post here, you mentioned a 1914-S 64+ CAC being worth $60,000 but the same idea applies to much cheaper coins. There are two main reasons why anyone will pay large price spreads. Overwhelmingly,they expect to sell it for more later. Second, in their peer group of collectors, it is viewed as a status symbol. Otherwise, the vast majority will buy a much cheaper example.
I think one thing to me that stands out with your opinions is that you state them as fact. For instance, you state that there are two reasons to buy a coin with a large price spread: 1) to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I have bought such coins and although I would like to make money on any purchase, it was not the motivating factor. Further, I did not buy the coin as a status symbol since I rarely display or even discuss my own coins. Rather I purchased those types of coins because as collector of the series I recognized the true beauty of a coin that stood out from others due to its originality, its appearance and condition, and the difficulty of finding such examples. My hunch is that there are others like me and that helps explain part of the reason for the price spreads.
Yes, I do have a tendency to do what you state. It is just my writing style.
My comments are generic and are not intended to apply to every collector. What I am attempting to explain to you is that the overwhelmingly majority are likely motivated by the financial aspect. Are you trying to tell me that you find the coins I am describing so interesting that you don't mind losing a substantial proportion of your outlay? Or is it that you really believe you will get most, all or even more of your money back? I'm not questioning your motive but I absolutely don't believe it as a general principle because it makes no sense.
One other point--you seem to have a hard time believing that no one would pay money for a coin that they did not think would be a good financial investment. There are many threads on this site that go something like this--"post a coin that you overpaid for and are happy you did." As collectors it is not uncommon to pay more money for a coin even though it may not appear to be a great investment. There are other reasons---i.e. the look of the coin, the pedigree of the coin, filling in a hole, having the best, getting a coin back, etc.
Back to the original point of the thread; in the last week, I've sold my gold-stickered 1943-S Bronze Cent in PCGS AU55, a PCGS MS61 Assay Office $50 Slug, and two other six-figure coins, as well as a few five figure pieces. Apparently Doug's blog was just the shot in the arm the coin market needed.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
I came up with a plan to save Classic Commems a few years ago - we just need to combine them in the Red Book, CoinFacts, and Greysheet with Modern Commems (the distinction is arbitrary), and the modern guys would have to start buying the Classics, which would drive demand through the roof, and subsequently convert some modern buyers to vintage.
Everyone I've mentioned the idea to loves it, but overcoming institutional inertia might be impossible.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
I guess we can agree to disagree here. I do not think that my two criteria--gem and CAC are "trivial attributes." The grade of a coin especially in MS 65 or better is a criteria. You state it is a "contrived significance" and I disagree. I see a big difference in coins that are in gem or better and appreciate them. I will say that your thinking was the thought in early collections where collectors focused on obtaining the coin they wanted without concern for the condition. However over time the modern thinking is that condition matters. This trend seems to have become more important, not less. It is hard for me to imagine that one day the grade of the coin will be a minor factor that most collectors seem to think is trivial. Certainly there are times where a price difference between a 64 and 65 wont make sense. However, there should be a price difference because an accurately graded 65 that is solid for the grade, original and attractive should be more desirable to most than a 64.
FWIW, I agree that quality matters and will always matter, but I suspect that the correlation between grade and price will
@Regulated said:
I came up with a plan to save Classic Commems a few years ago - we just need to combine them in the Red Book, CoinFacts, and Greysheet with Modern Commems (the distinction is arbitrary), and the modern guys would have to start buying the Classics, which would drive demand through the roof, and subsequently convert some modern buyers to vintage.
Everyone I've mentioned the idea to loves it, but overcoming institutional inertia might be impossible.
I like the idea, but hesitatingly. My fear is that someone looking at the series for the first time is going to see so much in there that he doesn't want to own that he'll walk away from all of it. That's probably doubly true of someone who wants his coins in slabs. A slabbed 144-piece classic commem set probably only just barely fits in a large 5X10 SDB. Add the moderns and it gets way out of hand.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@Regulated said:
I came up with a plan to save Classic Commems a few years ago - we just need to combine them in the Red Book, CoinFacts, and Greysheet with Modern Commems (the distinction is arbitrary), and the modern guys would have to start buying the Classics, which would drive demand through the roof, and subsequently convert some modern buyers to vintage.
Everyone I've mentioned the idea to loves it, but overcoming institutional inertia might be impossible.
Its a great idea , theres a sucker born every minute and coincidentally they all collect moderns.
I like the idea, but hesitatingly. My fear is that someone looking at the series for the first time is going to see so much in there that he doesn't want to own that he'll walk away from all of it. That's probably doubly true of someone who wants his coins in slabs. A slabbed 144-piece classic commem set probably only just barely fits in a large 5X10 SDB. Add the moderns and it gets way out of hand.
I'm not trying to encourage Classic Commem collectors to add the moderns - I'm just trying to get the guys with the already out-of-hand set to add a paltry 144 coins...
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
@WCC said:
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE >and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.
I'm thinking the #1 reason something is scarce is because no one felt like making a bunch of them.
-Or-
Nobody thought they were worth saving.
Kinda like the Plymouth Horizon.
I'm not collecting one of those.
You can have your rare foreign coins that they only made 10 of and have weird writing on them and a picture of a worm.
I had a Plymouth Horizon. I jumped it over piles of dirt. It broke. That means there is one less. More scarce. You might want to rethink collecting.
My buddies were (part of) the reason Cudas and Shelby's and GTOs are now rare. A friend my dad's totaled an original Shelby Cobra on his 16th birthday...the day he got it.
@shorecoll said:
A friend my dad's totaled an original Shelby Cobra on his 16th birthday...the day he got it.
I feel the same as WCC feels about US coins in regard to the Cobra.
Un-drivable waste of money unless a considerable amount of sorting/upgrading is done.
Even then, you'll probably end up in the tire wall if it rains.
Let's try to be positive in the current boom market! It isn't just a red hot market, it's white hot! Many of our products are flying off the shelves, selling like hot cakes! Industry professionals will be enjoying another bumper year! This weekend company top sales pros will be going off to an all expense paid vacation where we will be sitting around a roaring fire and smiling from ear to ear!
a few comments about my OP. I never imagined a thread listing a few positives about the US coin market would generate so many comments.
Also, there is something amusing about reading so many comments in the same thread that 1) the market is not good and prices are down and 2) that US coin prices are super inflated. lol
Finally, I am mystified about the number of comments by people who dont collect US coins looking at a US coin thread and trashing the market. I dont generally look at forums about collectables I dont collect and certainly dont trash them.
I like the idea, but hesitatingly. My fear is that someone looking at the series for the first time is going to see so much in there that he doesn't want to own that he'll walk away from all of it. That's probably doubly true of someone who wants his coins in slabs. A slabbed 144-piece classic commem set probably only just barely fits in a large 5X10 SDB. Add the moderns and it gets way out of hand.
I'm not trying to encourage Classic Commem collectors to add the moderns - I'm just trying to get the guys with the already out-of-hand set to add a paltry 144 coins...
Traditionally U.S. Silver Commemoratives have been grouped as the 50 Piece Type Set and the 144 Piece Mintmark & Variety Set. There are the smaller PDS and topical (art deco eagles, Civil War, etc.) subsets. I believe there is a possible collection that has been overlooked for many years. A 55 Piece Specialized Type Set which would include both Alabama, Grant, and Missouri coins as well as single date and double date Boone and Pilgrim coins.
I'm sure there are many commemorative coin collectors, who after completing the type set are tempted to go beyond just collecting the 50 basic coins; but, just aren't interested in going all out and accumulating another 94, inexpensive (for the most part) coins in order to complete a 144 set collection. The additional five coins that make up the advanced 55 coin type set would add another 20% to the cost of completing the collection in MS64 or MS65 and would represent money well spent.
There is just something about the Redbook description of the Grant with star, Alabama 2x2 and Missouri 2 star 4 that grabs one's attention and makes one want to own them and their plain brothers. Since most of the PDS commemoratives were a result of political shenanigans, they are also a bit of a turn-off particularly in light of today's political and economic environment. Thus, the 144 coin set is never going to become a reality for a lot of collectors. I think encouraging collectors to think in terms of a 55 commemorative coin set is an opportunity to expand collector interest in commemoratives especially if we suggest that category be created at the Registry Set level.
For prices to advance across the board demand will need to exceed supply. Fresh money needs enter market.
Morgan Dollars price declines - could be buying window. MS64 Cert generic peace dollars at $35-$40 look like super buy. Jim one of my show customers shopper on Cert coins $50 and under says “ If I go thru $ window at McDonald’s just tell wife can’t afford go out dinner that week and then pickup nice Cert Peace Dollar.”
Weak demand / most seeing declines story on certified coins. Many including myself taken hits over last couple years. Gold and silver trading in flat, narrow range.
I had no less than 3 people call the shop with 1943 steel cents, claiming they're worth $2-$4k dollars online, last week. I offered to sell them one for less than a quarter. Then they could sell it online and get rich. I was bummed out when I got no takers. Oh well. So much for fame.
As one example, in a prior post here, you mentioned a 1914-S 64+ CAC being worth $60,000 but the same idea applies to much cheaper coins. There are two main reasons why anyone will pay large price spreads. Overwhelmingly,they expect to sell it for more later. Second, in their peer group of collectors, it is viewed as a status symbol. Otherwise, the vast majority will buy a much cheaper example.
I think one thing to me that stands out with your opinions is that you state them as fact. For instance, you state that there are two reasons to buy a coin with a large price spread: 1) to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I have bought such coins and although I would like to make money on any purchase, it was not the motivating factor. Further, I did not buy the coin as a status symbol since I rarely display or even discuss my own coins. Rather I purchased those types of coins because as collector of the series I recognized the true beauty of a coin that stood out from others due to its originality, its appearance and condition, and the difficulty of finding such examples. My hunch is that there are others like me and that helps explain part of the reason for the price spreads.
Yes, I do have a tendency to do what you state. It is just my writing style.
My comments are generic and are not intended to apply to every collector. What I am attempting to explain to you is that the overwhelmingly majority are likely motivated by the financial aspect. Are you trying to tell me that you find the coins I am describing so interesting that you don't mind losing a substantial proportion of your outlay? Or is it that you really believe you will get most, all or even more of your money back? I'm not questioning your motive but I absolutely don't believe it as a general principle because it makes no sense.
One other point--you seem to have a hard time believing that no one would pay money for a coin that they did not think would be a good financial investment. There are many threads on this site that go something like this--"post a coin that you overpaid for and are happy you did." As collectors it is not uncommon to pay more money for a coin even though it may not appear to be a great investment. There are other reasons---i.e. the look of the coin, the pedigree of the coin, filling in a hole, having the best, getting a coin back, etc.
I agree a low minority don’t care if they lose money if that’s your point. Concurrently, the posts you are referencing mostly apply to what I would describe as nominally priced in the threads I have read. Almost never anything in the five figures or above.
To your last post, I wasn't trashing US collecting. I was disagreeing with what I consider to be predominantly marketing hype, not from you but in US collecting generally. I admit that I got side tracked from the intent of your original post but since you seem to be more concerned about the future of the market than I am , you need to consider other views than what I would describe as "group think". No one is totally objective including me but to state that many participants here have a biased view of what they like and collect is an understatement.
To circle back to your original post, I don't think the market at the level you collect is in bad shape. I probably don't think the future is as promising as you do but it isn't due to any dislike I have for US coinage or those who collect it. An inflow of as little as $100 to $200 million placed selectively could easily increase the prices of the coins you are buying substantially because it is so small compared to others. That's less than the price of many single art paintings.
@Regulated said:
I came up with a plan to save Classic Commems a few years ago - we just need to combine them in the Red Book, CoinFacts, and Greysheet with Modern Commems (the distinction is arbitrary), and the modern guys would have to start buying the Classics, which would drive demand through the roof, and subsequently convert some modern buyers to vintage.
Everyone I've mentioned the idea to loves it, but overcoming institutional inertia might be impossible.
I can't imagine that Modern Commemoratives are a part of your business. HOWEVER, you do have a good idea. Moving the Classic Commeoratives from the back of the new format Greysheet to the front, just after Modern Commemoratives makes a lot of sense and should be an easy fix. On the other hand, how many collectors of Modern Commemoratives subscribe to the Greysheet?
Going a step further, Dave Bowers' A GUIDE BOOK OF UNITED STAES COMMEMORATIVE COINS has done all the work for you. At the top of the odd number pages is "Commemoratives, 1892 to Date." At a list price of $19.95, offering them to Modern collectors at cost might be a worthwhile marketing strategy.
If the coin market is healthy, then that means that the purchase side is imbalanced. Where do you buy coins that are not instantly upside down when you go to sell in this "healthy" coin market?
I know this much: I used to be able to buy and then sell for even money, or a small loss or a small gain. Now, I buy and sell for a large loss. That isn't healthy for me, and that isn't a healthy coin market.
@ARCO said:
If the coin market is healthy, then that means that the purchase side is imbalanced. Where do you buy coins that are not instantly upside down when you go to sell in this "healthy" coin market?
I know this much: I used to be able to buy and then sell for even money, or a small loss or a small gain. Now, I buy and sell for a large loss. That isn't healthy for me, and that isn't a healthy coin market.
@ARCO said:
If the coin market is healthy, then that means that the purchase side is imbalanced. Where do you buy coins that are not instantly upside down when you go to sell in this "healthy" coin market?
I know this much: I used to be able to buy and then sell for even money, or a small loss or a small gain. Now, I buy and sell for a large loss. That isn't healthy for me, and that isn't a healthy coin market.
Here's a perfect example of that! The PCGS drop in value of a MS64 Liberty Walking Half Dollar in April 1, 2006 of $6,200 to today's $2,300 and seeing rare CAC examples regularly selling in the $1,800s during the past two years at auction.
@ARCO said:
If the coin market is healthy, then that means that the purchase side is imbalanced. Where do you buy coins that are not instantly upside down when you go to sell in this "healthy" coin market?
I know this much: I used to be able to buy and then sell for even money, or a small loss or a small gain. Now, I buy and sell for a large loss. That isn't healthy for me, and that isn't a healthy coin market.
To be fair, you SHOULD e a little upside down "instantly" on any coin purchase. A healthy market doesn't mean that there is rapid price inflation. There should be a normal bid/ask spread.
Comments
Presently my offers / bids about 85 pct CDN bid.
Sorry for the long post but I want to provide you a proper reply.
I am not the one who complains about the price performance of the coins I collect. I have also never claimed or implied that the coins I collect should (or will) be worth a lot more. The coins I collect don't sell for anywhere near the prices of the US coins which are discussed by members like you either. If I ever showed you what I have and you are impartial, I don't see how you could claim that what I collect isn't a much better collectible value than any US coin remotely in the same price range. In my prior reply to you, the claim I made for the coins I collect is accurate.
In this instance, I infer that you took that quote from my post out of context. The point of the comment was in relation to those who might think it is unusual to lose money when they sell their coins. There is nothing unusual about it and no reason to expect otherwise. Why would anyone expect anything else?
Your statement about my rarity claims is not correct. In a prior post, I gave you an answer with specific examples. If you are now referring to the criteria used today based upon TPG grade, that's not an actual scarcity. It is an exaggeration.
I can agree with you that I can reduce the number of comments and I will try to do that. Concurrently, I think that US collectors who collect some coins profiled here need a reality check when it comes to the financial prospects.
As one example, in a prior post here, you mentioned a 1914-S 64+ CAC being worth $60,000 but the same idea applies to much cheaper coins. There are two main reasons why anyone will pay large price spreads. Overwhelmingly,they expect to sell it for more later. Second, in their peer group of collectors, it is viewed as a status symbol. Otherwise, the vast majority will buy a much cheaper example.
I know you disagree with me. What you need to consider is that, absent persistently increasing prices, why do you believe that this coinage will retain current buyer interest later at today's price level? If you have a reason, I am all ears to hear it because I have never read one anywhere.
I don't dislike US coins. I just have a different opinion of the price prospects for most of the higher quality more expensive coinage than you do. I think highly of coins like the 1861 CSA half, Texas jolas, Territorial issues...I also like many federal issues but it has nothing to do with the price, the TPG grade or whether CAC beaned it. You and many others assign significance to that. Other than financial, I do not as it has nothing to do with collecting. If the price level weren't so inflated, I would be collecting US coins now because that's what I used to collect in the past.
I tend to agree with WCC that the premiums paid for extreme quality US coins tend to be exaggerated, especially compared to most world coins. But just because a premium is high doesn’t automatically mean that it’s not justified, or that chasing the best is not a worthwhile pursuit.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Well...that's basically what I got out of all of it.
Now I'd like to officially complain about the price of a MS65 1930-S saint for those of you who care.
I think it's just too darn inflated
And I'm not going to collect it!...So THERE!
My Saint Set
I think one thing to me that stands out with your opinions is that you state them as fact. For instance, you state that there are two reasons to buy a coin with a large price spread: 1) to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I have bought such coins and although I would like to make money on any purchase, it was not the motivating factor. Further, I did not buy the coin as a status symbol since I rarely display or even discuss my own coins. Rather I purchased those types of coins because as collector of the series I recognized the true beauty of a coin that stood out from others due to its originality, its appearance and condition, and the difficulty of finding such examples. My hunch is that there are others like me and that helps explain part of the reason for the price spreads.
Another point, you state that a 1911-D quarter eagle is common. There is more to it than that. Doug Winter wrote an interesting article back in 2006 about the 1911-D date. This was during a period when the series was hyped. He pointed out more than a decade ago that the number of 1911-Ds in properly graded 63 and 64 exceeded the demand and the price at the time was overvalued (and he was right). He also said that a 1911-D properly graded in 65 was truly a rare coin and its value of about $80,000 made sense. This is where I take exception with your claim of arbitrary categories when I mention these coins in GEM and CAC are scarce. The last 1911-D quarter eagle in NGC 65 CAC traded at $78,000 in 2018. My guess is that a PCGS 65 CAC would trade far higher. My point was that Doug 12 years ago was correct---in 63 and 64 the prices were overvalued but not in 65 where it has held its value in cases where it was properly graded. So blanket statements that 1911-D are common is misleading.
One other thing----pricing and rarity do not always make sense. I had lunch with one of the most well known coin experts in the US and we discussed a type set by key date. He pointed out that many keys are not rare such as the 1916-D dime. However, there is always demand for this date for whatever reason. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
Now all those 63-and 64 coins are gradeflated to 65 problem solved !!!!!!! Might have required submitting a coin a dozen times but for the middlemen its all upside cha-ching !!!!
In other news the old 65 is now a 67. Now is the fight for 67's on? Move those goalposts cha-ching get those coin nerds to start peeing on each others pant legs again . Middlemen rejoice!!!
True story, it's more financially rewarding to be a shepherd than a sheep.
circ or uncirc is a pretty firm line the rest is nonsense invented to line someones pockets . It's marketing drivel
But just because a premium is high doesn’t automatically mean that it’s not justified, or that chasing the best is not a worthwhile pursuit
Andy, why do I always realize this point after the fact??
. So yes, some coin with a population of 20 in a small country is far more rare than a 1916-d dime but the 1916-d dime will always be in demand. In fact if the price slipped at some point I would buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
Always is a long time. People used to say the same of $5 Columbian stamps - much scarcer than 1916-D dimes. Then the price dropped by 80% when demand dropped. I see no reason other than nostalgia or date/mintmark collecting for why anyone would want a 1916-D dime in any grade. So if date/mintmark collecting and/or nostalgia fades, there's no reason the price of 16-D dimes couldn't come WAY down. They are not rare or even scarce with tens of thousands available.
There are very few "firm lines" in coin grading, just as there is no firm line between healthy and harmful cynicism, or funny and mean sarcasm. That said, much of your sentiment has ring of truth
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
over the line , was a little mean
as far as circ or uncirc I meant mostly anyone can tell that , whereas buying a 65 instead of a 64 is really just a crapshoot . Good day for a random submitter , grader had an eyelash in his eye sorry try again , maybe sent in when grading was tight or loose. Or .....sent in 15 times until it gets the "right" grade . The idea that someone would spend thousands based on such trivia is silly. Dealers , coin doctors , crackout experts get rich off this idea all at collectors expense.
Collecting can be joyful , like the warmth of believing in a higher power . Slabbing stickering upgrading selling duplicates at a loss ? Thats the soul sucking cold of organized religion , collection plate shoved in my face , hands in my wallet , people telling me how to live and what to think , so called experts drunk exercising power over others.
I agree with your comment about "always is a long time". Nothing is absolute. My main point is that there is a lot more to pricing, scarcity and value then simply looking at mintage and census. There are many cases where a Dahlonega quarter eagle sells for more than a Charlotte quarter eagle where the Charlotte coin is clearly more rare. Even more examples when one uses the same comparison but a Philly quarter eagle instead of a Charlotte quarter eagle. Does it mean that the Dahlonega quarter eagle is over valued? no. It just means there are other things going on (i.e demand, reputation, the story behind the Dahlonega mint, history, etc). The collectors who pay the premium for the Dahlonega coin are not necessarily foolish for paying the premium nor are they show offs for paying more for these coins. The US coin market is a big market. Clearly there are some coins that are grossly undervalued or overvalued but simply comparing our market to a foreign one or using just mintages/census is an over simplification.
This part I definitely agree with, but it represents the current emotion in the hobby. That could easily change across generations. That was my only point. I've long argued against date/mintmark collecting as nothing but designed redundancy. If 100% of the collector base became type collectors, key dates would no longer be key to anyone.
Similar emotion applies to GSA CC dollars which are far from rare yet always command a premium. Nostalgia for the Old West, perhaps.
This is a very interesting thread with very insightful and thought provoking responses.
All I can contribute is my observation of some local coin shows I have attended over the past year.
At all of these shows (maybe 3-4) that I have attended, there were fairly large crowds when I attended. How much buying and selling was going on; what the buy and sell prices were compared to those of 10-20 years ago; and what type of material was being bought and sold was unknown to me. However there did not seem to be a lack of persons walking the bourses at the shows. There was also good attendance at the shows by dealers as there were not very many empty tables on the bourses at the shows.
The people attending the shows was what one would normally expect, mostly male and mostly older (40+). There were a number of younger persons (under 40) at the shows and there was a variety of racial and ethnic backgrounds present at the shows.
I would expect that the hobby will continue in the decades ahead, though it will not be the same as a cashless society becomes more of the norm. People will always collect. Coins have many attributes that make them appealing as a collectible (precious metal, "money", history, art, small size, portability, etc.). Younger persons will eventually take an interest in this area of collectibles.
Buying the number and not the coin would indeed be silly. Buying the better coin often makes all the sense in the world. Of course, it's hard to know if you're actually buying the better coin if you don't know how to grade for yourself, or have good advisors.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Yes, I do have a tendency to do what you state. It is just my writing style.
My comments are generic and are not intended to apply to every collector. What I am attempting to explain to you is that the overwhelmingly majority are likely motivated by the financial aspect. Are you trying to tell me that you find the coins I am describing so interesting that you don't mind losing a substantial proportion of your outlay? Or is it that you really believe you will get most, all or even more of your money back? I'm not questioning your motive but I absolutely don't believe it as a general principle because it makes no sense.
I am aware of how US collectors think and just disagree with it. I find it pure exaggeration and the reason I do is because practically every single coin is scarce or rare under the criteria you describe. The exceptions would be recent NCLT and proof sets. So out of maybe 250,000 coins ever struck, something on the order of 95% qualify in some grade or with some modifier. What kind of significance is that?
I am not trying to change your mind or offend you. If you disagree with my opinions, I have no problem with it. The reason I disagree with you is because I consider what you described to be a contrived significance. Collectibles and artwork shouldn't need such trivial attributes on which to base the significance.
As for foreign coins,, I don't expect any non-US coins to be worth a US price solely or even primarily due to its scarcity. To believe that is contrary to how collectors actually act. To the contrary, elsewhere I have argued against the idea that collecting elsewhere will ever resemble the US and this includes the price level. The only realistic exceptions are in countries with extended traditions of collecting.
What I meant by this quote you extracted is that back in 1998 when I resumed collecting, I initially considered collecting US coinage but didn't because of my opinion of the relative value proposition. If I had collected US coins then, there is a good chance I'd still be doing so now. I certainly have no regrets that I collect something else now and wouldn't switch even if the US price level were a lot lower.
I don’t believe cashless society will be norm unless oppression.
At shows I take cash, gold coins at melt and certified coins at bluesheet. Dealer / Preacher Ben from Louisiana only does cash as he has had another bankruptcy. Many more are living off the grid as they have rejected the digital world. He is a workers rights and anti plastic activist and believes cashless system the mark of the beast as foretold in Revelations.
Were an enemy like Russia or Iran successful in detonating an emp weapon over US cashless system wb toast.
My response concerned your statement that people by a coin with a large price spread for two reasons: 1 to make money and 2) as a status symbol. I pointed out that neither was my main motivation. You followed up asking:
1) whether I don't mind losing a substantial proportion of my outlay?
2) do you really believe you will get most or all your money back?
As I said before financial motives are not my main priority. I realize if I wanted to maximize my finanicial return, rather than buying a five figure coin I would on average do better simply buying a S & P 500 index fund. So if investment return was my main motivation, I would not buy the coin. On the other hand, that doesn't mean I am going to spend five figures on a coin with the knowledge that I will lose 1/2 my outlay. So yes, I do think I will get most or all my money back or even make a profit.
Not only do I think that but I have done that on occasion. I have noticed when I first got into coins and sold, I took a huge hit. As I became more knowledgable, a 10% hit was not uncommon. Thereafter, I started realizing that I wasn't losing money when I sold. What happened was over the years I learned from my mistakes.
I get the sense from your comments that you think a bit like I use to. When I only focused on liberty quarter eagles it was not uncommon to see a date that only had 6 or 7 in UNC and maybe the same AU 58. The MS 62 that was condition census may trade for $8000. I would see other series where there were literally hundreds of coins in UNC and the condition census may be $50,000 and a lower grade UNC was $12,000 and I could not figure it out. However, over time I have seen that the market is not so simple as looking at mintage and census. There is far more that goes into pricing. These coins that I once thought were overvalued, I now understand their value and many of them have a much better chance of doubling in value then say my liberty quarter eagle in MS 62.
However, at the end of the day I love coin collecting, love the challenge, the search, and the history. That is my main motive and if I make a few dollars all the better. Often people say if you take a job to make a lot of money you will probably fail. If you take a job that you love, often you will do far better and make more than you ever thought. I find that holds true with coins. The more passionate I have become about coins, the better I have done.
This market you describe is just some concerted effort to steal your paycheck. Its predicated on a certain mental state of the mark. The state being a tendency to think you are too smart to get grifted and the conditioned response is to double down on a bad decision. Don't abandon the game just try harder
Like a 3 card monte game on the street corner where the mark keeps guessing wrong but it only makes them more determined. They only stop when the wallet is empty.
Who benefits if one grade higher is twice as much? Hint , its not the collector . The actual benefit of owning a slightly better something than the next yahoo to the end user is precisely zero. Along the way however the parasites all get to dip their beaks over and over.
I guess we can agree to disagree here. I do not think that my two criteria--gem and CAC are "trivial attributes." The grade of a coin especially in MS 65 or better is a criteria. You state it is a "contrived significance" and I disagree. I see a big difference in coins that are in gem or better and appreciate them. I will say that your thinking was the thought in early collections where collectors focused on obtaining the coin they wanted without concern for the condition. However over time the modern thinking is that condition matters. This trend seems to have become more important, not less. It is hard for me to imagine that one day the grade of the coin will be a minor factor that most collectors seem to think is trivial. Certainly there are times where a price difference between a 64 and 65 wont make sense. However, there should be a price difference because an accurately graded 65 that is solid for the grade, original and attractive should be more desirable to most than a 64.
d buy one even though I am not a dime collector. I cant say the same about the low pop foreign coin
Honestly, I kind of agree with both of you. The market is what the market is. Gem CAC means something and has value in the market. BUT, that doesn't make it rational. It just makes it a fact.
I saw an AU58 gold CAC coin sell last week for MS63 money. Ludicrous in many ways. BUT, the market is what it is.
The fact is, I would much rather own an XF45 gold coin for $500 than the same coin Gem CAC for $25,000. Why? I don't want to park that much money in a collectible that has no compounded return and could go down in value. The XF 45 coin has limited downside and still represents the series. But that's just MY preference.
I would advise anyone AGAINST buying S-VDB cents or 16-D dimes. EVER. In any grade. Other than a dealer to flip. Why? I don't think anyone should EVER collect by date/mintmark. It's expensive and creates redundancy. In my mind, you are always better with a 68 FB late date merc than an AU 16-D. It is a pretter representation of the series and only differs by two numbers and a mintmark. But the market and many individuals don't believe that and I'm not going to tell them they are wrong. I'm just going to tell them that it isn't what I would do. [As if they care....LOL]
There are many things about coin pricing that don't necessarily make sense. For instance, a super rare smaller coin often trades for far less than the same coin that is larger. Why should a coin that has a tiny survival rate and is one of only a few in UNC trade for less than a much more common $20 gold coin simply because the coin is bigger. As you say, the market is what the market is and its just a fact.
One other point--you seem to have a hard time believing that no one would pay money for a coin that they did not think would be a good financial investment. There are many threads on this site that go something like this--"post a coin that you overpaid for and are happy you did." As collectors it is not uncommon to pay more money for a coin even though it may not appear to be a great investment. There are other reasons---i.e. the look of the coin, the pedigree of the coin, filling in a hole, having the best, getting a coin back, etc.
Back to the original point of the thread; in the last week, I've sold my gold-stickered 1943-S Bronze Cent in PCGS AU55, a PCGS MS61 Assay Office $50 Slug, and two other six-figure coins, as well as a few five figure pieces. Apparently Doug's blog was just the shot in the arm the coin market needed.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
@Gazes Coin market is doing well.
Wanna tell that to my piles of classic commems? They’ve been waiting to hear that for around twenty years. For that matter, so have I.
I came up with a plan to save Classic Commems a few years ago - we just need to combine them in the Red Book, CoinFacts, and Greysheet with Modern Commems (the distinction is arbitrary), and the modern guys would have to start buying the Classics, which would drive demand through the roof, and subsequently convert some modern buyers to vintage.
Everyone I've mentioned the idea to loves it, but overcoming institutional inertia might be impossible.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
FWIW, I agree that quality matters and will always matter, but I suspect that the correlation between grade and price will
I like the idea, but hesitatingly. My fear is that someone looking at the series for the first time is going to see so much in there that he doesn't want to own that he'll walk away from all of it. That's probably doubly true of someone who wants his coins in slabs. A slabbed 144-piece classic commem set probably only just barely fits in a large 5X10 SDB. Add the moderns and it gets way out of hand.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Its a great idea , theres a sucker born every minute and coincidentally they all collect moderns.
I'm not trying to encourage Classic Commem collectors to add the moderns - I'm just trying to get the guys with the already out-of-hand set to add a paltry 144 coins...
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
I had a Plymouth Horizon. I jumped it over piles of dirt. It broke. That means there is one less. More scarce. You might want to rethink collecting.
My buddies were (part of) the reason Cudas and Shelby's and GTOs are now rare. A friend my dad's totaled an original Shelby Cobra on his 16th birthday...the day he got it.
I find coins easier to store than Cudas and Shelbys.
I won't even mention guns. I like em but it's a hassle to sell or buy them.
Wait. I wasn't going to mention them.
I feel the same as WCC feels about US coins in regard to the Cobra.
Un-drivable waste of money unless a considerable amount of sorting/upgrading is done.
Even then, you'll probably end up in the tire wall if it rains.
A 16 year old, if given one, would be dead before the sun goes down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tizwFMo85Ms
My Saint Set
Let's try to be positive in the current boom market! It isn't just a red hot market, it's white hot! Many of our products are flying off the shelves, selling like hot cakes! Industry professionals will be enjoying another bumper year! This weekend company top sales pros will be going off to an all expense paid vacation where we will be sitting around a roaring fire and smiling from ear to ear!
a few comments about my OP. I never imagined a thread listing a few positives about the US coin market would generate so many comments.
Also, there is something amusing about reading so many comments in the same thread that 1) the market is not good and prices are down and 2) that US coin prices are super inflated. lol
Finally, I am mystified about the number of comments by people who dont collect US coins looking at a US coin thread and trashing the market. I dont generally look at forums about collectables I dont collect and certainly dont trash them.
Traditionally U.S. Silver Commemoratives have been grouped as the 50 Piece Type Set and the 144 Piece Mintmark & Variety Set. There are the smaller PDS and topical (art deco eagles, Civil War, etc.) subsets. I believe there is a possible collection that has been overlooked for many years. A 55 Piece Specialized Type Set which would include both Alabama, Grant, and Missouri coins as well as single date and double date Boone and Pilgrim coins.
I'm sure there are many commemorative coin collectors, who after completing the type set are tempted to go beyond just collecting the 50 basic coins; but, just aren't interested in going all out and accumulating another 94, inexpensive (for the most part) coins in order to complete a 144 set collection. The additional five coins that make up the advanced 55 coin type set would add another 20% to the cost of completing the collection in MS64 or MS65 and would represent money well spent.
There is just something about the Redbook description of the Grant with star, Alabama 2x2 and Missouri 2 star 4 that grabs one's attention and makes one want to own them and their plain brothers. Since most of the PDS commemoratives were a result of political shenanigans, they are also a bit of a turn-off particularly in light of today's political and economic environment. Thus, the 144 coin set is never going to become a reality for a lot of collectors. I think encouraging collectors to think in terms of a 55 commemorative coin set is an opportunity to expand collector interest in commemoratives especially if we suggest that category be created at the Registry Set level.
For prices to advance across the board demand will need to exceed supply. Fresh money needs enter market.
Morgan Dollars price declines - could be buying window. MS64 Cert generic peace dollars at $35-$40 look like super buy. Jim one of my show customers shopper on Cert coins $50 and under says “ If I go thru $ window at McDonald’s just tell wife can’t afford go out dinner that week and then pickup nice Cert Peace Dollar.”
Weak demand / most seeing declines story on certified coins. Many including myself taken hits over last couple years. Gold and silver trading in flat, narrow range.
I had no less than 3 people call the shop with 1943 steel cents, claiming they're worth $2-$4k dollars online, last week. I offered to sell them one for less than a quarter. Then they could sell it online and get rich. I was bummed out when I got no takers. Oh well. So much for fame.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I agree a low minority don’t care if they lose money if that’s your point. Concurrently, the posts you are referencing mostly apply to what I would describe as nominally priced in the threads I have read. Almost never anything in the five figures or above.
To your last post, I wasn't trashing US collecting. I was disagreeing with what I consider to be predominantly marketing hype, not from you but in US collecting generally. I admit that I got side tracked from the intent of your original post but since you seem to be more concerned about the future of the market than I am , you need to consider other views than what I would describe as "group think". No one is totally objective including me but to state that many participants here have a biased view of what they like and collect is an understatement.
To circle back to your original post, I don't think the market at the level you collect is in bad shape. I probably don't think the future is as promising as you do but it isn't due to any dislike I have for US coinage or those who collect it. An inflow of as little as $100 to $200 million placed selectively could easily increase the prices of the coins you are buying substantially because it is so small compared to others. That's less than the price of many single art paintings.
Dang, I thought January was busy.
February is way busier.
My advice is to collect unique coinage.
Well, I newped a CC gold piece.
I can't imagine that Modern Commemoratives are a part of your business. HOWEVER, you do have a good idea. Moving the Classic Commeoratives from the back of the new format Greysheet to the front, just after Modern Commemoratives makes a lot of sense and should be an easy fix. On the other hand, how many collectors of Modern Commemoratives subscribe to the Greysheet?
Going a step further, Dave Bowers' A GUIDE BOOK OF UNITED STAES COMMEMORATIVE COINS has done all the work for you. At the top of the odd number pages is "Commemoratives, 1892 to Date." At a list price of $19.95, offering them to Modern collectors at cost might be a worthwhile marketing strategy.
If the coin market is healthy, then that means that the purchase side is imbalanced. Where do you buy coins that are not instantly upside down when you go to sell in this "healthy" coin market?
I know this much: I used to be able to buy and then sell for even money, or a small loss or a small gain. Now, I buy and sell for a large loss. That isn't healthy for me, and that isn't a healthy coin market.
Impatience will kill any market!
HLRC’s newsletter was certainly positive and predicts the upcoming Baltimore show will be stellar.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Here's a perfect example of that! The PCGS drop in value of a MS64 Liberty Walking Half Dollar in April 1, 2006 of $6,200 to today's $2,300 and seeing rare CAC examples regularly selling in the $1,800s during the past two years at auction.
To be fair, you SHOULD e a little upside down "instantly" on any coin purchase. A healthy market doesn't mean that there is rapid price inflation. There should be a normal bid/ask spread.
I enjoyed that newsletter and recommend it to anyone to read