However, some of the posts go deeper. Almost angry that anyone thinks the market even in specific sectors is good. I get the sense that some are hoping for prices to drop (and not just as a buying opportunity). There are many sweeping statements regarding the coin market having no future, etc. I don't pretend to know the answers but certainly others don't either.
As far as I'm concerned, and probably most all of the others, I would much rather see a healthy coin market for now and for the future. Logically speaking, it makes no sense for me not to root for a healthy coin market.
The fact that I don't think well of its future is not because I like playing Debbie Downer. It's because that's what my personal analysis and interpretation of various past, current and expected future events lead me to believe. If you feel differently, that's certainly you're right and opinion, but let's not go pretending that for those that have a negative outlook, that there isn't a ton of quantifiable evidence that support their position. Who knows what the future may bring, but the notion that coin collecting will be much smaller in scope if the future is certainly by no means some crazy fringe perspective and for many good reasons.
I'm not sure you have the same definition of "healthy" market as those who disagree with you (and me). For those whose definition is consistently increasing prices, it concurrently means that fewer coins are affordable to "mainstream" collectors over time.
More and more of the better coins are supposed to increase in price and be out of financial reach of more and more collectors, yet somehow the "leftovers" are still supposed to be interesting enough to maintain interest in the hobby. Why would anyone believe that?
It’s all dependent from wherever your standing and what your approach is.
When I walk a show I can see dealers that are doing business and others that are not.
I see some with total problem coins in 2x2s with prices on them that are multiples of sheet. I think to myself, these guys are wacko and can’t be doing well, but are they? I guess it’s hard to tell unless your them.
I see others that are dressed to the 9s and have a killer slabbed inventory with a safe and everything at their booth. I would guess they have a brisk profitable business, but do they? They could easily be embroiled in a web of debt leveraged to the max. It’s hard to tell unless your them.
The health of the coin market doesn’t have to tell the story of how healthy your business gets to be or how complete your collection gets.
I’m positive there are opportunities at large to trade and add coins to your collection, it’s just there isn’t a rule book to follow. It’s not that easy and it’s clear some practices work and others a little flimsy. Like fishing, sometimes the bite is on and anyone can catch a fish by throwing in their boot and other times one needs to be an angler and study the nuances to score.
When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over
I don't know how much truth there is in this post. here's what I know about me and what Arco posted --- Here is what I know firsthand. The coins I bought and sold 10-15 years back, always did well. I bought a coin, I sold a coin for the same or more than I paid usually --- when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash.
I attended the Legend auction yesterday as hard as I tried I couldn’t buy a coin I wanted no matter how high I bid. I went home empty handed.
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@Justacommeman said:
I attended the Legend auction yesterday as hard as I tried I couldn’t buy a coin I wanted no matter how high I bid. I went home empty handed.
Here is my way , see coin I like, buy coin , keep coin for ever and ever.
+1
Actually, my obsession is "special" National Bank Notes but I use the philosophy of Bronco. When I exhibit parts of my collection like at the recent FUN show, I get people asking about particular notes and I always tell them that they'll get their chance in my estate sale....
@topstuf said:
$20 golds will do fine once the surplus from overseas stops. Great way to stack bullion.
The surplus is permanent. They aren't melting the coins. They are bullion now, they will be bullion 100 years from now. And if I'm stacking bullion, do I want 90% Liberties or Saints at $50 over spot or 100% maple leafs or buffaloes (or pick your favorite bullion coin) for $50 over spot?
There is no future for common date gold in anything less than Gem Unc as a collectible. 62/63 and even 64 Libs an Saints are not going to suddenly generate huge premiums over spot.
In my ever humble opinion.
I know a dealer that last year melted over a million dollars worth of Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles. Yes, that is less than 1,000 coins in this particular instance - but it is happening.
The premiums on the even more common "junk" 90% silver coins have fluctuated considerably over the years. At times, the premiums were negative (the coins could be bought below their scrap "melt" value). Other times, there was a significant premium (1999 "Y2K", for example). I could see common-date gold double eagles obtaining a greater premium at some point in the future.
Good - maybe it will offset some of the effects of the European gold hoards.
Guys that are selling for a lot less and losing their shirts are probably letting lowlife dealers take advantage of them. I learned my lesson regarding this (on a small scale) last Summer and I will never let that happen to me again. A lot of the stuff, in the Legend auction, was not the very tip top of the market but was just some really good quality material and, yes, it is selling strong! Just be sensible when you sell! Have patience and use an auction setting, if need be.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
@Justacommeman said:
I attended the Legend auction yesterday as hard as I tried I couldn’t buy a coin I wanted no matter how high I bid. I went home empty handed.
Do you know who you were competing with?
The internet. There were at least two other bidders before I jumped in.
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
If you've made the equivalent of $50k a year all your life and put 15% away, you're a millionaire at like, 56 or something, factoring in compounding returns.
That's true. If you invested $7500 per year in the S&P 500 every year starting in 1984 when you were 22 years old, in 2018 you would have $1,063,433.05 at 56 years old (not accounting for taxes).
Of course if you had followed sage advice and held a diversified portfolio, you would have done much worse ...
@cnncoins said:
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
Chris I bid 22k for the same coin. That now means there was at least 4 of us on the coin at over 20k plus juice.
My wife who was with me was not impressed when I had my hand in the air
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@cnncoins said:
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
Chris I bid 22k for the same coin. My wife wasn’t impressed
mark
It hammered for $28,200 including the juice. Dr. Duckor's 1920 S MS 66 + WLH sold for almost $97,000. Now THAT'S the tip of the market!
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
@cnncoins said:
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
28K for a 1946 Walker seems a little extreme to me although it does look pretty. It's been a while since a rather ordinary date business strike Walker went for that kind of money. JBN can correct me if I am wrong...
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
@cnncoins said:
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
28K for a 1946 Walker seems a little extreme to me although it does look pretty. It's been a while since a rather ordinary date business strike Walker went for that kind of money. JBN can correct me if I am wrong...
In the last 12 years this is the first 46-P that Ive tried to buy.
I paid a little less then that for this 68 CAC. Also top pop as was the 46-P
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
It is nice to see that color 68 1942 again. Thanks. The 46 is also very nice - Liberty's head is good, the branch hand has nice detail. I really like the hip and sun. Reverse is nice with 2/3rds type of strike. Color color color and very pretty. Congratulations to the new owner!
Was certainly aware of this one. Great Collections has had a few of the 67+s in these last 5 dates (46PDS & 47PD) as well. The populations are expanding rapidly for these issues. The 47 67+ population bumped up by 3 at one point a few weeks ago. Given the 67 populations for these dates, I see the 67+ populations exceeding 20 for most all of the 46PDS & 47PD issues in a few years. Prices will adjust.
That said, when I see a 67+ that is fittingly majestic, I'll f-ing go at it. The last cases where this reckless fiscal abandon was required were the Dale Larsen 41D and 45 at a recent LRCA.
$97K for the best 20D in existence. You are certainly not going to see any population increases for this date and grade! Early walkers are really a class of coins by themselves.
Isn't that to be expected in a series where original rolls are still in the woodwork?
Not those dates maybe, but then again, as remote as that possibility might be it is still possible.
@topstuf said:
Isn't that to be expected in a series where original rolls are still in the woodwork?
Not those dates maybe, but then again, as remote as that possibility might be it is still possible.
Wild you say that. I had mentioned that some of the 67+s from these last 5 dates will also come from rolls, but deleted it before posting.
Won't see any rolls for the early dates coming out, though.
@cnncoins said:
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
Chris I bid 22k for the same coin. That now means there was at least 4 of us on the coin at over 20k plus juice.
My wife who was with me was not impressed when I had my hand in the air
mark
So, your wife was extremely happy with the results?
@bronco2078 said:
Here is my way , see coin I like, buy coin , keep coin for ever and ever. Dealer goes out of business and starves to death.
Yep!...& I hate it when the coin I want has a CAC sticker.
Usually that doesn't happen but one out of 10 times is enough to infuriate me.
Now I'm bidding against those people
@topstuf said:
Isn't that to be expected in a series where original rolls are still in the woodwork?
Not those dates maybe, but then again, as remote as that possibility might be it is still possible.
Wild you say that. I had mentioned that some of the 67+s from these last 5 dates will also come from rolls, but deleted it before posting.
**Won't see any rolls for the early dates coming out, though.
**
JBN, funny you say that because you and I have talked about the GBW-Schultz 19-S. The one thing that gave me pause at the asking price was one of the Walking Liberty Guides (Fox?) mentioned that there is a long-standing rumor that someone is sitting on an original BU roll of 19-S Walkers. Anything is possible...
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
@cnncoins said:
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
28K for a 1946 Walker seems a little extreme to me although it does look pretty. It's been a while since a rather ordinary date business strike Walker went for that kind of money. JBN can correct me if I am wrong...
In the last 12 years this is the first 46-P that Ive tried to buy.
I paid a little less then that for this 68 CAC. Also top pop as was the 46-P
m
That thing is like staring at a volcano. Spectacular.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
@Justacommeman said:
I attended the Legend auction yesterday as hard as I tried I couldn’t buy a coin I wanted no matter how high I bid. I went home empty handed.
m
I bought two. There are coins listed by Legend as;"All in offers" accepted, as they were passed on at auction.
@keets said: When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over
I don't know how much truth there is in this post. here's what I know about me and what Arco posted --- Here is what I know firsthand. The coins I bought and sold 10-15 years back, always did well. I bought a coin, I sold a coin for the same or more than I paid usually --- when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash.
I presented you with a question when you posted about what a person might ask in your BM store. The question was chock full of art, culture and history. Your reply was something along the lines of "wow". AKA no reply.
@keets said: When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over
I don't know how much truth there is in this post. here's what I know about me and what Arco posted --- Here is what I know firsthand. The coins I bought and sold 10-15 years back, always did well. I bought a coin, I sold a coin for the same or more than I paid usually --- when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash.
I presented you with a question when you posted about what a person might ask in your BM store. The question was chock full of art, culture and history. Your reply was something along the lines of "wow". AKA no reply.
My reply is addressed to Keets
To me, an important part of @keets's post is "when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash."
Even if one is interested in coins, it is a different collecting approach when one can finance upgrades with the lower graded, appreciated coins purchased previously. If you lose money on existing holdings and have to keep putting in funds to upgrade, you can still enjoy the coins, but it's a different financial and collecting approach. You either need to accept losing money during an upgrade or accept duplicates.
@keets said:
basing a comment of "strong market" on MS66+ and MS68 graded Walkers is just stupid talk.
I don't think that you have very good reading comprehension. Those Walkers were the 'tip top' of the market and we were just discussing them as an aside, because we are enthusiasts. I specifically stated that MOST of the coins in that auction WEREN'T coins like that and were just good quality coins, which are a much better gauge of the market's overall health.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
@keets said:
basing a comment of "strong market" on MS66+ and MS68 graded Walkers is just stupid talk.
I don't think that you have very good reading comprehension. Those Walkers were the 'tip top' of the market and we were just discussing them as an aside, because we are enthusiasts. I specifically stated that MOST of the coins in that auction WEREN'T coins like that and were just good quality coins, which are a much better gauge of the market's overall health.
It is interesting that there were 4 bidders on that coin over $20k and @Justacommeman didn't bid on anything else. A comment on the broader market would be how many people are bidding on just the tip top of the market and not anything else.
I think "stupid talk" or “don't think that you have very good reading comprehension” are aggressive forum talk, the kind that has lead to escalations that have negative effects in the past.
It seems like a number of people are very eager to say the broader market is declining and less interested to hear about areas of strength in the market, but I think @keets makes a good point here.
I presented you with a question when you posted about what a person might ask in your BM store. The question was chock full of art, culture and history. Your reply was something along the lines of "wow". AKA no reply
if you can direct me to the question or the thread I'll answer. there's a higher likelihood, much higher, that I missed it all together and not that I avoided it as you would seem to be saying.
walkerfan, my reading comprehension is just fine. along with "tip top of the market" you made reference to "lowlife dealers" and "selling strong" at the same time. I only meant to say that looking at what happens at the top isn't a good way to judge the overall market. the best stuff might have 4-5 bidders and sell high but overall prices are slipping back.
I agree with @keets And, frankly, I think you need to consider broad-based dealer comments more than sector collectors as bellwethers of the market. When a dealer buys a 50 year accumulation and needs to sell EVERYTHING, you get a much better sense of market breadth and depth than Legends or sector collectors possess.
I point you to @Elemint Buffalo nickel thread. He posted a perfectly collectible, pretty 1938-D Buff just to have a bunch of people on this forum tell him (possibly correctly) that it may not be a coin worth buying. So, if the UNC Buff isn't worth buying, how strong is your "market"?
When you take your set of XF or better Buffs (or wheats or Mercs or Walkers) to a dealer and get a low-ball offer, you can ASSUME the dealer is a crook or you could simply recognize how hard it is to sell those coins in the current market.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@Gazes said:
Just about every week there seems to be a thread bemoaning how bad the coin market is, how there are no young collectors, coin collecting will evaporate with the advent of digital currency, etc.
In the last week I have read the following:
almost unanimous reports of a strong FUN show (both attendance and selling)
the auction sale of 4 coins each over a million dollars in the last month
an article by Doug Winter where he states that there are more collectors now then in 1989 or 1999 (great article titled "where did all the great coins go")
in the same article Doug's opinion that there are more super collectors than in the past
We should report positive news as much as negative news
I’m glad to hear news of well performing areas in the market and I like to hear good news in the sea of bad, so keep posting the good news
@keets said: I presented you with a question when you posted about what a person might ask in your BM store. The question was chock full of art, culture and history. Your reply was something along the lines of "wow". AKA no reply
if you can direct me to the question or the thread I'll answer. there's a higher likelihood, much higher, that I missed it all together and not that I avoided it as you would seem to be saying.
walkerfan, my reading comprehension is just fine. along with "tip top of the market" you made reference to "lowlife dealers" and "selling strong" at the same time. I only meant to say that looking at what happens at the top isn't a good way to judge the overall market. the best stuff might have 4-5 bidders and sell high but overall prices are slipping back.
Yes, of course. You did answer.
"Wow" was your answer.
@keets said: When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over
I don't know how much truth there is in this post. here's what I know about me and what Arco posted --- Here is what I know firsthand. The coins I bought and sold 10-15 years back, always did well. I bought a coin, I sold a coin for the same or more than I paid usually --- when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash.
I presented you with a question when you posted about what a person might ask in your BM store. The question was chock full of art, culture and history. Your reply was something along the lines of "wow". AKA no reply.
My reply is addressed to Keets
To me, an important part of @keets's post is "when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash."
Even if one is interested in coins, it is a different collecting approach when one can finance upgrades with the lower graded, appreciated coins purchased previously. If you lose money on existing holdings and have to keep putting in funds to upgrade, you can still enjoy the coins, but it's a different financial and collecting approach. You either need to accept losing money during an upgrade or accept duplicates.
I don't upgrade because my collecting style differs and the coins aren't usually available to upgrade anyway. However, I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
When I exclusively bought from dealers as a YN, my local shops bought at 60% of Red Book to my recollection. I understand that the better material collected by those here has (much) tighter spreads (as it will sell quicker if priced "right") but still don't see that it is realistic to expect no loss most of the time.
Also, if upgrading, the more important factor should be the price difference between what you receive at sale and pay when buying, not whether you sell at a profit or loss. That only matters if exiting a position.
As to whether it is better to sell what you have or use cash, it just depends. It's human nature to avoid recognizing losses; that's why stock market holders will hold a stock all the way to the bottom in bear markets. Somehow, I suspect that those who are attempting to avoid a loss now are usually going to end up with an even bigger loss later, or their heirs will end up owning it.
@WCC said:
I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
So much to address in this thread. I'll start with this. I have met many sophisticated collectors over the years who have consistently done well with their purchases, and it is not by accident. Yes, the average collector should expect to lose something if the market hasn't changed. But not all collectors are average.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash."
For a rational person, it's only a better idea to use cash if you value the duplicate more highly than the cash. Speaking for myself, I rarely do. Doesn't matter if I'm taking a profit or a loss.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@WCC said:
I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
So much to address in this thread. I'll start with this. I have met many sophisticated collectors over the years who have consistently done well with their purchases, and it is not by accident. Yes, the average collector should expect to lose something if the market hasn't changed. But not all collectors are average.
I am aware of what you are telling me. It is substantially related to the long term asset bubble which has inflated the value of all asset classes to unprecedented levels.
@WCC said:
I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
So much to address in this thread. I'll start with this. I have met many sophisticated collectors over the years who have consistently done well with their purchases, and it is not by accident. Yes, the average collector should expect to lose something if the market hasn't changed. But not all collectors are average.
I am aware of what you are telling me. It is substantially related to the long term asset bubble which has inflated the value of all asset classes to unprecedented levels.
IMHO, the asset inflation of which you speak is based on two things. The first is ultra-low unnaturally forced interest rates, which cannot be sustained. The other is technological progress, which cannot be stopped. So in the short run, you'll get to be right for a while, but you're going to be wrong in the long run.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
you guys and your duplicates if buy the coin you like you are done. What are you all doing? buying too fast gotta have it have the nearest thing NOW!! and then getting remorse? Oh now look this coin is 1.5% nicer than the one I bought last year for $5000 Gotta upgrade ....... Marvelous ,watch me light my cigar with a $100 bill.
There is a thing called therapy ..... maybe there is another thing called religion for some.
If you have completed a set of something then just stop. Simple really. Be done with a thing . One stepping stone on the path to enlightenment is knowing when its ok to stop something. To be at peace, to get off the treadmill, cease the endless churning .......
No one is keeping score in this life when it ends it all goes to zero
@WCC said:
I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
So much to address in this thread. I'll start with this. I have met many sophisticated collectors over the years who have consistently done well with their purchases, and it is not by accident. Yes, the average collector should expect to lose something if the market hasn't changed. But not all collectors are average.
I am aware of what you are telling me. It is substantially related to the long term asset bubble which has inflated the value of all asset classes to unprecedented levels.
IMHO, the asset inflation of which you speak is based on two things. The first is ultra-low unnaturally forced interest rates, which cannot be sustained. The other is technological progress, which cannot be stopped. So in the short run, you'll get to be right for a while, but you're going to be wrong in the long run.
True
I should have added that I inferred the collectors you reference probably represent maybe one out of several hundred, at most. For example, I recall the 1839 Una & the Lion 5 Sov selling for about $25k at a Goldberg auction in 2005. Now, it sells for about $250k and I have seen noticeable appreciation in other British proof gold over this time as well. So yes, I can see that the collectors you know could have done very well buying into a segment such as this one.
When South Africa was my primary series, I was able to do very well for a short time but the limited scale made it impossible for me to find quality coins in sufficient volume. The price level also precluded an equivalent windfall to the example I gave or in segments within US coinage.
Generically though, the primary disconnect I see by collectors who express these sentiments on this forum is that have a higher opinion of what they own than the market. Yes, the coins are much better than what most collectors buy but there is still no reason to expect that it will persistently appreciate as it will price out an increasing proportion of the collectors base.
@WCC said:
I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
So much to address in this thread. I'll start with this. I have met many sophisticated collectors over the years who have consistently done well with their purchases, and it is not by accident. Yes, the average collector should expect to lose something if the market hasn't changed. But not all collectors are average.
I am aware of what you are telling me. It is substantially related to the long term asset bubble which has inflated the value of all asset classes to unprecedented levels.
IMHO, the asset inflation of which you speak is based on two things. The first is ultra-low unnaturally forced interest rates, which cannot be sustained. The other is technological progress, which cannot be stopped. So in the short run, you'll get to be right for a while, but you're going to be wrong in the long run.
True
I should have added that I inferred the collectors you reference probably represent maybe one out of several hundred, at most. For example, I recall the 1839 Una & the Lion 5 Sov selling for about $25k at a Goldberg auction in 2005. Now, it sells for about $250k and I have seen noticeable appreciation in other British proof gold over this time as well. So yes, I can see that the collectors you know could have done very well buying into a segment such as this one.
When South Africa was my primary series, I was able to do very well for a short time but the limited scale made it impossible for me to find quality coins in sufficient volume. The price level also precluded an equivalent windfall to the example I gave or in segments within US coinage.
Generically though, the primary disconnect I see by collectors who express these sentiments on this forum is that have a higher opinion of what they own than the market. Yes, the coins are much better than what most collectors buy but there is still no reason to expect that it will persistently appreciate as it will price out an increasing proportion of the collectors base.
You state that collectors on this forum "have a higher opinion of what they own than the market." Quite frankly as you describe your interest in other country's coins, one could say the same thing about you. You seem like an intelligent and polite collector but I simply dont understand why if you are interested in non US material why you spend most your time talking about only negative aspects of US collecting and essentially saying that almost everything "we" US collectors enjoy is not even close to being rare regardless of what we collect. Again, nothing personal but the large number of posts on these subjects by a non US collector is somewhat puzzling.
@Gazes said:
When I posted the OP, I simply wanted to point out some news in numismatics that I thought was positive. It is amazing how a few good words about the coin market can upset some people. I honestly believe there are people that just don't want to hear any good news about the coin market.
@Justacommeman said:
I attended the Legend auction yesterday as hard as I tried I couldn’t buy a coin I wanted no matter how high I bid. I went home empty handed.
Yes, of course. You did answer.
"Wow" was your answer
without context I can't even reply to why I said that and for all I know, I didn't.
you seem to want one of two things, either an explanation for my answer or just to rag on me. if you want the explanation give me a link, if you want to rag on me have fun.
Comments
I'm not sure you have the same definition of "healthy" market as those who disagree with you (and me). For those whose definition is consistently increasing prices, it concurrently means that fewer coins are affordable to "mainstream" collectors over time.
More and more of the better coins are supposed to increase in price and be out of financial reach of more and more collectors, yet somehow the "leftovers" are still supposed to be interesting enough to maintain interest in the hobby. Why would anyone believe that?
Would a sick coin market be cured by some more doctors?
It’s all dependent from wherever your standing and what your approach is.
When I walk a show I can see dealers that are doing business and others that are not.
I see some with total problem coins in 2x2s with prices on them that are multiples of sheet. I think to myself, these guys are wacko and can’t be doing well, but are they? I guess it’s hard to tell unless your them.
I see others that are dressed to the 9s and have a killer slabbed inventory with a safe and everything at their booth. I would guess they have a brisk profitable business, but do they? They could easily be embroiled in a web of debt leveraged to the max. It’s hard to tell unless your them.
The health of the coin market doesn’t have to tell the story of how healthy your business gets to be or how complete your collection gets.
I’m positive there are opportunities at large to trade and add coins to your collection, it’s just there isn’t a rule book to follow. It’s not that easy and it’s clear some practices work and others a little flimsy. Like fishing, sometimes the bite is on and anyone can catch a fish by throwing in their boot and other times one needs to be an angler and study the nuances to score.
When I read a thread like this, I am always left with the realization that the vast majority of people around here aren't particularly interested in coins, and aren't collectors, just short term investors. The obsession with plastic, stickers, and profit in this hobby has completely wiped out any interest in the history of the objects, which is the problem at the core of what we're all gnashing our teeth over
I don't know how much truth there is in this post. here's what I know about me and what Arco posted --- Here is what I know firsthand. The coins I bought and sold 10-15 years back, always did well. I bought a coin, I sold a coin for the same or more than I paid usually --- when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash.
I thought @Gazes's post on good news would lift the spirits here.
How wrong I was!
I attended the Legend auction yesterday as hard as I tried I couldn’t buy a coin I wanted no matter how high I bid. I went home empty handed.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Do you know who you were competing with?
Here is my way , see coin I like, buy coin , keep coin for ever and ever.
+1
Actually, my obsession is "special" National Bank Notes but I use the philosophy of Bronco. When I exhibit parts of my collection like at the recent FUN show, I get people asking about particular notes and I always tell them that they'll get their chance in my estate sale....
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Good - maybe it will offset some of the effects of the European gold hoards.
Guys that are selling for a lot less and losing their shirts are probably letting lowlife dealers take advantage of them. I learned my lesson regarding this (on a small scale) last Summer and I will never let that happen to me again. A lot of the stuff, in the Legend auction, was not the very tip top of the market but was just some really good quality material and, yes, it is selling strong! Just be sensible when you sell! Have patience and use an auction setting, if need be.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
The internet. There were at least two other bidders before I jumped in.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The market is a little better than I thought it would be through January, although industry wide, cash is still tight.
Auction results vary widely depending on the coin. For coins like the ones Mark (Justacommeman) is trying to buy he'll have plenty of competition from both dealers and collectors. I bid 20K hammer for a 1946 Walker in 67+ and wasn't even the underbidder at Legend last night.
That's true. If you invested $7500 per year in the S&P 500 every year starting in 1984 when you were 22 years old, in 2018 you would have $1,063,433.05 at 56 years old (not accounting for taxes).
Of course if you had followed sage advice and held a diversified portfolio, you would have done much worse ...
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
Chris I bid 22k for the same coin. That now means there was at least 4 of us on the coin at over 20k plus juice.
My wife who was with me was not impressed when I had my hand in the air
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
It hammered for $28,200 including the juice. Dr. Duckor's 1920 S MS 66 + WLH sold for almost $97,000. Now THAT'S the tip of the market!
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
28K for a 1946 Walker seems a little extreme to me although it does look pretty. It's been a while since a rather ordinary date business strike Walker went for that kind of money. JBN can correct me if I am wrong...
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Yes, it was very pretty...
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
In the last 12 years this is the first 46-P that Ive tried to buy.
I paid a little less then that for this 68 CAC. Also top pop as was the 46-P
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I did grade it "shot 68"....not sure who eventually bought it. PCGS has not ever graded this date 68.
It is nice to see that color 68 1942 again. Thanks. The 46 is also very nice - Liberty's head is good, the branch hand has nice detail. I really like the hip and sun. Reverse is nice with 2/3rds type of strike. Color color color and very pretty. Congratulations to the new owner!
Was certainly aware of this one. Great Collections has had a few of the 67+s in these last 5 dates (46PDS & 47PD) as well. The populations are expanding rapidly for these issues. The 47 67+ population bumped up by 3 at one point a few weeks ago. Given the 67 populations for these dates, I see the 67+ populations exceeding 20 for most all of the 46PDS & 47PD issues in a few years. Prices will adjust.
That said, when I see a 67+ that is fittingly majestic, I'll f-ing go at it. The last cases where this reckless fiscal abandon was required were the Dale Larsen 41D and 45 at a recent LRCA.
$97K for the best 20D in existence. You are certainly not going to see any population increases for this date and grade! Early walkers are really a class of coins by themselves.
Isn't that to be expected in a series where original rolls are still in the woodwork?
Not those dates maybe, but then again, as remote as that possibility might be it is still possible.
Wild you say that. I had mentioned that some of the 67+s from these last 5 dates will also come from rolls, but deleted it before posting.
Won't see any rolls for the early dates coming out, though.
So, your wife was extremely happy with the results?
Yep!...& I hate it when the coin I want has a CAC sticker.
Usually that doesn't happen but one out of 10 times is enough to infuriate me.
Now I'm bidding against those people
My Saint Set
**
JBN, funny you say that because you and I have talked about the GBW-Schultz 19-S. The one thing that gave me pause at the asking price was one of the Walking Liberty Guides (Fox?) mentioned that there is a long-standing rumor that someone is sitting on an original BU roll of 19-S Walkers. Anything is possible...
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
That thing is like staring at a volcano. Spectacular.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
most everything I bought in the past 6 months has gone up in value, with gold going up, now over 1,300 helps
basing a comment of "strong market" on MS66+ and MS68 graded Walkers is just stupid talk.
I bought two. There are coins listed by Legend as;"All in offers" accepted, as they were passed on at auction.
I presented you with a question when you posted about what a person might ask in your BM store. The question was chock full of art, culture and history. Your reply was something along the lines of "wow". AKA no reply.
My reply is addressed to Keets
To me, an important part of @keets's post is "when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash."
Even if one is interested in coins, it is a different collecting approach when one can finance upgrades with the lower graded, appreciated coins purchased previously. If you lose money on existing holdings and have to keep putting in funds to upgrade, you can still enjoy the coins, but it's a different financial and collecting approach. You either need to accept losing money during an upgrade or accept duplicates.
I don't think that you have very good reading comprehension. Those Walkers were the 'tip top' of the market and we were just discussing them as an aside, because we are enthusiasts. I specifically stated that MOST of the coins in that auction WEREN'T coins like that and were just good quality coins, which are a much better gauge of the market's overall health.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
It is interesting that there were 4 bidders on that coin over $20k and @Justacommeman didn't bid on anything else. A comment on the broader market would be how many people are bidding on just the tip top of the market and not anything else.
I think "stupid talk" or “don't think that you have very good reading comprehension” are aggressive forum talk, the kind that has lead to escalations that have negative effects in the past.
It seems like a number of people are very eager to say the broader market is declining and less interested to hear about areas of strength in the market, but I think @keets makes a good point here.
I presented you with a question when you posted about what a person might ask in your BM store. The question was chock full of art, culture and history. Your reply was something along the lines of "wow". AKA no reply
if you can direct me to the question or the thread I'll answer. there's a higher likelihood, much higher, that I missed it all together and not that I avoided it as you would seem to be saying.
walkerfan, my reading comprehension is just fine. along with "tip top of the market" you made reference to "lowlife dealers" and "selling strong" at the same time. I only meant to say that looking at what happens at the top isn't a good way to judge the overall market. the best stuff might have 4-5 bidders and sell high but overall prices are slipping back.
I agree with @keets And, frankly, I think you need to consider broad-based dealer comments more than sector collectors as bellwethers of the market. When a dealer buys a 50 year accumulation and needs to sell EVERYTHING, you get a much better sense of market breadth and depth than Legends or sector collectors possess.
I point you to @Elemint Buffalo nickel thread. He posted a perfectly collectible, pretty 1938-D Buff just to have a bunch of people on this forum tell him (possibly correctly) that it may not be a coin worth buying. So, if the UNC Buff isn't worth buying, how strong is your "market"?
When you take your set of XF or better Buffs (or wheats or Mercs or Walkers) to a dealer and get a low-ball offer, you can ASSUME the dealer is a crook or you could simply recognize how hard it is to sell those coins in the current market.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I sold a red book and 100 2x2 flips in the shop yesterday. That ought to cover the rent.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I’m glad to hear news of well performing areas in the market and I like to hear good news in the sea of bad, so keep posting the good news
Yes, of course. You did answer.
"Wow" was your answer.
I don't upgrade because my collecting style differs and the coins aren't usually available to upgrade anyway. However, I don't know why anyone wouldn't normally expect to lose money when selling, whether upgrading or not. Coin collecting is a hobby and someone must pay the "slippage" to dealers, auction firms and TPG to both buy and sell their coins.
When I exclusively bought from dealers as a YN, my local shops bought at 60% of Red Book to my recollection. I understand that the better material collected by those here has (much) tighter spreads (as it will sell quicker if priced "right") but still don't see that it is realistic to expect no loss most of the time.
Also, if upgrading, the more important factor should be the price difference between what you receive at sale and pay when buying, not whether you sell at a profit or loss. That only matters if exiting a position.
As to whether it is better to sell what you have or use cash, it just depends. It's human nature to avoid recognizing losses; that's why stock market holders will hold a stock all the way to the bottom in bear markets. Somehow, I suspect that those who are attempting to avoid a loss now are usually going to end up with an even bigger loss later, or their heirs will end up owning it.
I don’t care if the market is good, bad or ugly. I am buying any nice, original coin on my want list right now when I find one.
So much to address in this thread. I'll start with this. I have met many sophisticated collectors over the years who have consistently done well with their purchases, and it is not by accident. Yes, the average collector should expect to lose something if the market hasn't changed. But not all collectors are average.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"when it comes time to sell for an upgrade or more fitting/interesting coin/medal for my collection, it currently is a bad plan to sell something to finance the purchase. it is better to use cash."
For a rational person, it's only a better idea to use cash if you value the duplicate more highly than the cash. Speaking for myself, I rarely do. Doesn't matter if I'm taking a profit or a loss.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I am aware of what you are telling me. It is substantially related to the long term asset bubble which has inflated the value of all asset classes to unprecedented levels.
IMHO, the asset inflation of which you speak is based on two things. The first is ultra-low unnaturally forced interest rates, which cannot be sustained. The other is technological progress, which cannot be stopped. So in the short run, you'll get to be right for a while, but you're going to be wrong in the long run.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
you guys and your duplicates
if buy the coin you like you are done. What are you all doing? buying too fast gotta have it have the nearest thing NOW!! and then getting remorse? Oh now look this coin is 1.5% nicer than the one I bought last year for $5000 Gotta upgrade ....... Marvelous ,watch me light my cigar with a $100 bill.
There is a thing called therapy ..... maybe there is another thing called religion for some.
If you have completed a set of something then just stop. Simple really. Be done with a thing . One stepping stone on the path to enlightenment is knowing when its ok to stop something. To be at peace, to get off the treadmill, cease the endless churning .......
No one is keeping score in this life when it ends it all goes to zero
True
I should have added that I inferred the collectors you reference probably represent maybe one out of several hundred, at most. For example, I recall the 1839 Una & the Lion 5 Sov selling for about $25k at a Goldberg auction in 2005. Now, it sells for about $250k and I have seen noticeable appreciation in other British proof gold over this time as well. So yes, I can see that the collectors you know could have done very well buying into a segment such as this one.
When South Africa was my primary series, I was able to do very well for a short time but the limited scale made it impossible for me to find quality coins in sufficient volume. The price level also precluded an equivalent windfall to the example I gave or in segments within US coinage.
Generically though, the primary disconnect I see by collectors who express these sentiments on this forum is that have a higher opinion of what they own than the market. Yes, the coins are much better than what most collectors buy but there is still no reason to expect that it will persistently appreciate as it will price out an increasing proportion of the collectors base.
You state that collectors on this forum "have a higher opinion of what they own than the market." Quite frankly as you describe your interest in other country's coins, one could say the same thing about you. You seem like an intelligent and polite collector but I simply dont understand why if you are interested in non US material why you spend most your time talking about only negative aspects of US collecting and essentially saying that almost everything "we" US collectors enjoy is not even close to being rare regardless of what we collect. Again, nothing personal but the large number of posts on these subjects by a non US collector is somewhat puzzling.
Try the train auction next time.
Yes, of course. You did answer.
"Wow" was your answer
without context I can't even reply to why I said that and for all I know, I didn't.
you seem to want one of two things, either an explanation for my answer or just to rag on me. if you want the explanation give me a link, if you want to rag on me have fun.