Coin market is doing well!

Gazes

Just about every week there seems to be a thread bemoaning how bad the coin market is, how there are no young collectors, coin collecting will evaporate with the advent of digital currency, etc.

In the last week I have read the following:
almost unanimous reports of a strong FUN show (both attendance and selling)
the auction sale of 4 coins each over a million dollars in the last month
an article by Doug Winter where he states that there are more collectors now then in 1989 or 1999 (great article titled "where did all the great coins go")
in the same article Doug's opinion that there are more super collectors than in the past

We should report positive news as much as negative news

ctf_error_coins

Best January for me so far in Both Buying and Selling.

topstuf

It was all a ruse to get us to sell cheap.

Regulated

It's worth noting that the sort of overbought stock market that we're experiencing right now usually precedes a big run up in coins. The spike in gold doesn't hurt either.

Lakesammman

Was chatting with an art dealer this week. He also knows a lot about coins.

He notes strong internet sales in art and, just like coins, he expects those buyers will eventually realize they shouldn't be buying site unseen.

Unknown

This content has been removed.

SullivanNumismatics

Coins are selling, and the market is pretty good. Not "strong" in my opinion, just "pretty good." Collectors are collecting, and although "ok coins" only sell for "ok" money, good coins are selling well.

Walkerfan

@topstuf said:
It was all a ruse to get us to sell cheap.

But some of us weren't dumb enough to fall for it.

johnny9434

you can depend on what you red here on the internet. NOT

PhilLynott

Some people just prefer doom and gloom over smooth sailing. My mom is one of those people she prefers to have things to complain about lol

Pulling up that DW article now thanks for the heads up.

Coinstartled

@PhilLynott said:
Some people just prefer doom and gloom over smooth sailing. My mom is one of those people she prefers to have things to complain about lol

Pulling up that DW article now thanks for the heads up.

Strong month here as well. Plenty of collectors though are buried in coins that have dropped by a third to three quarters of their value in the last handful of years. That cannot be overlooked.

Cougar1978

Material is selling well but not at the pace I would like. Demand for World Coins & Currency lagging. Bullion Material close to melt most liquid.

ClassicCommems and cc coins strong.

The decreasing pop of collectors a concern. Many repositioning inventory to bullion based material as numismatic coins sell off and only purchasing these where can buy right / flip quickly.

Overall optimism high.

BillDugan1959

As ever, the happy dance seems well choreographed.

Gazes

@FSF said:
The issue with the coin market are manifold but I'll touch upon a couple here. Many of the coins that sold for large sums and FUN especially the tippy top returned very little since the last sale from x number of years ago. So let's forgot about increasing prices for the most part, especially when compared to most alternative financial uses of that money.

As for more collectors, I'm not sure one way or the other. I do know that there is an abundance of unattractive material on the market. Much higher as a % than in the 1990s, which may indicate that there are more collectors. But that's a problem. Because the more collectors there are, they are presumable chasing after a finite number of the nice coins. I'm not talking just super grades, but attractive for the grade examples. But even ost of those don't show much of an increase or not at all over the many decades so that would be an argument than the collector base is actually smaller.

Either way, the market has a built in problem where if it ever garnered more and more collectors, they be buying junkier and junkier coins. That's an implicit inherent problem that can only be solved by a huge swath of the population treating modern Roosies and Jefferson as expensive worthwhile collectibles even in average uncirculated grades.

I am having a hard time following your post. The first paragraph states "forgot (sic) about increasing prices for the most part, especially when compared to most alternative financial uses of that money." If you want the absolute highest rate of return on your money, you are probably right that coins won't do that. However, I get more enjoyment out of coins than any other investments. Further, my other hobbies all cost me money with no return so my coin hobby is a big financial plus.

You then go on to say that having more collectors is a problem because there are only a finite number of "nice coins." Exactly !! that is the point. That is what causes prices to rise. It is also the chase for those coins that is enjoyable and rewards those who educate themselves.

Gazes

@FSF said:

@Gazes said:

@FSF said:
The issue with the coin market are manifold but I'll touch upon a couple here. Many of the coins that sold for large sums and FUN especially the tippy top returned very little since the last sale from x number of years ago. So let's forgot about increasing prices for the most part, especially when compared to most alternative financial uses of that money.

As for more collectors, I'm not sure one way or the other. I do know that there is an abundance of unattractive material on the market. Much higher as a % than in the 1990s, which may indicate that there are more collectors. But that's a problem. Because the more collectors there are, they are presumable chasing after a finite number of the nice coins. I'm not talking just super grades, but attractive for the grade examples. But even ost of those don't show much of an increase or not at all over the many decades so that would be an argument than the collector base is actually smaller.

Either way, the market has a built in problem where if it ever garnered more and more collectors, they be buying junkier and junkier coins. That's an implicit inherent problem that can only be solved by a huge swath of the population treating modern Roosies and Jefferson as expensive worthwhile collectibles even in average uncirculated grades.

I am having a hard time following your post. The first paragraph states "forgot (sic) about increasing prices for the most part, especially when compared to most alternative financial uses of that money." If you want the absolute highest rate of return on your money, you are probably right that coins won't do that. However, I get more enjoyment out of coins than any other investments. Further, my other hobbies all cost me money with no return so my coin hobby is a big financial plus.

You then go on to say that having more collectors is a problem because there are only a finite number of "nice coins." Exactly !! that is the point. That is what causes prices to rise. It is also the chase for those coins that is enjoyable and rewards those who educate themselves.

Much like the way ErrorOnCoins seems to use error coins as a proxy for the entire coin market, you do the same with the 1%+ collector market. As for the price increases, the point is that for many decades, you could rely on significant returns with the passing of a few years most of the times when these super coins would pass the auction block. The fact that they are holding their nominal values or have small increase over many years hardly implies that the market is all that great. If there are all of these extra super collectors as you suggest, one would logically deduce that prices on those coins should be going up a good amount.

As for the "nice coins," this is where you are being snobbish, no offense. You're focusing on a small and quite frankly in demand set of coins, at least today, as if it is a proxy for the entire market. The fact is that virtually most all coin collectors are not buying from the "nice coins". Their buying a lot of run of the mill $10-$500 collector coins that all too many dealers and collectors seem to consider "dreck".

Also, FUN is considered "the" event of the year as well as having a bellweather auction line up this time around. I would hardly use that one event, especially when the observations are not quantifiable, as being the basis of where the market's recently been, where it is now, or where it is going.

I couldn't disagree with you more (I can cite to many examples of "super coins" as you call them that have done far better than just hold their value). My main question for you is that given your view of the coin market and its future---do you still collect? If so why? You seem to be very pessimistic.

astrorat

@SullivanNumismatics said:
Coins are selling, and the market is pretty good. Not "strong" in my opinion, just "pretty good." Collectors are collecting, and although "ok coins" only sell for "ok" money, good coins are selling well.

Yeah ... yesterday I saw a really nice first strike obverse brockage Barber dime (sound familiar? ). A nice coin that sold for a fair price and the current owner is quite pleased! Nice coins are selling for nice money.

Baley

Speaking of "the market" for coins is a little like describing the Market for stocks, houses, jobs... and the weather. There are Averages, and there are specifics.

Sometimes folks talk past one another, and confuse the issue by moving from the overall, to sectors, to specifics.

Usually, though, the high Quality, rare, and relatively universally desirable ones are in demand, and the common, low Quality ones are not.

WCC

@Gazes said:

@FSF said:
The issue with the coin market are manifold but I'll touch upon a couple here. Many of the coins that sold for large sums and FUN especially the tippy top returned very little since the last sale from x number of years ago. So let's forgot about increasing prices for the most part, especially when compared to most alternative financial uses of that money.

As for more collectors, I'm not sure one way or the other. I do know that there is an abundance of unattractive material on the market. Much higher as a % than in the 1990s, which may indicate that there are more collectors. But that's a problem. Because the more collectors there are, they are presumable chasing after a finite number of the nice coins. I'm not talking just super grades, but attractive for the grade examples. But even ost of those don't show much of an increase or not at all over the many decades so that would be an argument than the collector base is actually smaller.

Either way, the market has a built in problem where if it ever garnered more and more collectors, they be buying junkier and junkier coins. That's an implicit inherent problem that can only be solved by a huge swath of the population treating modern Roosies and Jefferson as expensive worthwhile collectibles even in average uncirculated grades.

I am having a hard time following your post. The first paragraph states "forgot (sic) about increasing prices for the most part, especially when compared to most alternative financial uses of that money." If you want the absolute highest rate of return on your money, you are probably right that coins won't do that. However, I get more enjoyment out of coins than any other investments. Further, my other hobbies all cost me money with no return so my coin hobby is a big financial plus.

You then go on to say that having more collectors is a problem because there are only a finite number of "nice coins." Exactly !! that is the point. That is what causes prices to rise. It is also the chase for those coins that is enjoyable and rewards those who educate themselves.

This is another thread on the financial aspects of collecting. All of these threads imply that rising prices are "good" while stagnant or declining prices are "bad". Relatively, the US market has a higher correlation to economic and financial conditions versus all others due to the participation rate and its size. As a function of economics, it is impossible for the coin market to increase persistently even as the financial capacity of most buyers does not. Along with increasing supply of NCLT and increasing competition from NCLT and world/ancient coinage, this is probably why the US coin market has stagnated.

Next, there is the pricing of the "nice" coins as represented by the better TPG grades, CAC differentiation and modifiers from specialization. These coins should sell for a premium over inferior examples. However, many of the premiums are already "high" and in some instances vastly inflated. Inflated above any impartial evaluation of the coin's relative merits as a collectible.

Given the sums involved, I expect financial considerations to be important. Concurrently, I equally know that the current US price level and price structure would not exist without the expectation that most buyers of the more expensive coins will receive most, all or even more of their money back at resale.

Collect within your means and make sure you like what you buy enough so that if your segment loses noticeable value it won't bother you that much. I don't believe this applies to most buyers at any financially meaningful outlay.

topstuf

@Coinstartled said:

@PhilLynott said:
Some people just prefer doom and gloom over smooth sailing. My mom is one of those people she prefers to have things to complain about lol

Pulling up that DW article now thanks for the heads up.

Strong month here as well. Plenty of collectors though are buried in coins that have dropped by a third to three quarters of their value in the last handful of years. That cannot be overlooked.

Then there are those who ...always... avoid Morgans.

fc

If coin collecting turns out anything like comic books it means that momentum and "price guides" can only prop up the majority of the material for so long. That process can take decades to unfold. Eventually only the top 1-5% of material retains any real value. The rest just sits and collects dust waiting for a return to the glory days which never comes. In the case of comic books boxes and boxes and boxes of comics selling for 1 dollar each. For coins it may very well be bags and bags and bags of money worth face value or pick what you want for a buck (depending on what it was made from of course). Just ask stamp collectors what happened.

In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it hurts and forget doing a set or whatever. In my case I would probably seek out a 18XX proof gold coin in as high as grade as possible.

Cougar1978

A good strategy buy better date and cc material plus keep overall slab inventory to about 60 pieces or so for easy mgt - coins w avg amt in each based on portfolio budget.

At a show Currency can fill any blank space in your showcase

Elmhurst

It's doing well enough to keep us all on here.

Coinstartled

@topstuf said:

@Coinstartled said:

@PhilLynott said:
Some people just prefer doom and gloom over smooth sailing. My mom is one of those people she prefers to have things to complain about lol

Pulling up that DW article now thanks for the heads up.

Strong month here as well. Plenty of collectors though are buried in coins that have dropped by a third to three quarters of their value in the last handful of years. That cannot be overlooked.

Then there are those who ...always... avoid Morgans.

And modern gold and platinum commems. What a shellacking.

WCC

@fc said:

In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it hurts and forget doing a set or whatever. In my case I would probably seek out a 18XX proof gold coin in as high as grade as possible.

You appear to be describing coins selling at substantial premiums or even multiples to essentially equivalent coins based upon the TPG grade, differentiation from CAC or one of the currently practiced specializations. This has worked to this point in time but on a relative basis, these coins are both overpriced for the numismatic merits and not necessarily better financially either. It is coin specific whether my description is accurate or not but generically, longer term I expect coins with this profile to mostly perform (very) poorly.

topstuf

Okay folks, those of you in the chips:
Care to say if the renewed interest is in same areas or if there are any substantial changes in buyer patterns?

TwoSides2aCoin

Year over year I have way more non-hobbyists selling to me than hobbyists buying from me ( in the Shop). Not sure about the market, but I sold more last year than every year before.
Ebay, Pay Pal, Square, and the USPS did pretty good from all my work, too.
Then came Romanian gypsies ...and a few thieves online.

Soldi

@fc said:
If coin collecting turns out anything like comic books it means that momentum and "price guides" can only prop up the majority of the material for so long. That process can take decades to unfold. Eventually only the top 1-5% of material retains any real value. The rest just sits and collects dust waiting for a return to the glory days which never comes. In the case of comic books boxes and boxes and boxes of comics selling for 1 dollar each. For coins it may very well be bags and bags and bags of money worth face value or pick what you want for a buck (depending on what it was made from of course). Just ask stamp collectors what happened.

In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it hurts and forget doing a set or whatever. In my case I would probably seek out a 18XX proof gold coin in as high as grade as possible.

Stamp collectors got buried by Reaganomics and removal from IRAs and Keogh plans resulting in dealers folding up, comic books and sports cards and the like i.e.,again, goofy head dolls, hummers, all turn to crap. Which is what they are c.r.a.p. now then, they are not money. There's something about rare coins and old currency that stands the test of time.

Now, once again "they are not money" stick with me kid when the totalitarian oligarchs take over and you join up with us in the resistance BRING THE BAGS OF SPECIE WE'LL NEED THEM.

ReadyFireAim

@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.

Maybe a date or type set of high quality.

Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)

Soldi

@fc said:

In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it hurts and forget doing a set or whatever. In my case I would probably seek out a 18XX proof gold coin in as high as grade as possible.

Not to mention that one coin collection is easy to count and inventory and keep your eye on.

WCC

@ReadyFireAim said:

@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.

Maybe a date or type set of high quality.

Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)

From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.

Zoins

@Elmhurst said:
It's doing well enough to keep us all on here.

A number of forum members are no longer collecting / buying.

Swampboy

Hey @topstuf i went to give your 'ruse' comment an lol and got this pop-up.
?????

Gazes

@WCC said:

@ReadyFireAim said:

@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.

Maybe a date or type set of high quality.

Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)

From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.

try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do

WCC

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@ReadyFireAim said:

@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.

Maybe a date or type set of high quality.

Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)

From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.

try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do

That isn't an actual scarcity. This would be equally true of more series than I can even count.

blitzdude

All one needs to do is look greysheet to see where the market is trending. Been going south the past several years and nothing suggests that will change anytime soon. It's a buyers market. Enjoy the gift my fellow collectors, stackers and hoarders.

ricko

So much theory... and it seems the theories given, mainly depends on the individuals current experience (totally understandable). However, that experience is not necessarily representative of the entire numismatic market. Personally, from a collector's viewpoint, I do not see prices dropping, I do not see a shrinking collector base, and I do see show reports that indicate (for the majority of reports) a good attendance and active sales. It seems most crystal balls have been more like mirrors. Cheers, RickO

7Jaguars

I think there are a. Pulled of main issues here:

1 - the market for expensive (>10k dollar or so US coins ) apparently has some stronger areas

2 - the so-called collector base which by most indices is contracting

The first is continually harped on by posters, so will not add to this.

The second is reflected by the implosion of “beginner” sales and market (ie annual proof and mint sets, collapse of values of former “key” coins in circulated grades such as 1909 Sven, 32 D & S quarters, 1916 D dime, 1938 D half, etc.).

Gazes

@WCC said:

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@ReadyFireAim said:

@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.

Maybe a date or type set of high quality.

Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)

From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.

try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do

That isn't an actual scarcity. This would be equally true of more series than I can even count.

I am not sure why you say it isn't "actual scarcity." The term commonly used is they are condition rarities. For instance, you can get a $5 1914-S Indian in PCGS 63 for under $10,000. However, the same coin in PCGS CAC 64 (if you can find one) will cost over $60,000 (I think Legend had one last week for sale at $95,000). I guess you are referring to coins that are scarce regardless of condition. For instance an 1846 Proof dime in PCGS PR 64 went for $18,800 in the Gardner sale in 2014. This date shows a mintage of 10. Very scarce. Many factors go into scarcity beyond actual number minted The gold Indian series are very popular with a lot of demand and some dates just don't come nice. Collecting these coins in gem and CAC are extremely hard to find. It is also my opinion they well do well investment wise into the future.

TopoftheHill

It took me some searching to find the referenced article, so here is a link:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2019/1/22/where-are-all-the-great-coins

Gazes

@TopoftheHill said:
It took me some searching to find the referenced article, so here is a link:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2019/1/22/where-are-all-the-great-coins

thanks for linking

Zoins

@TopoftheHill said:
It took me some searching to find the referenced article, so here is a link:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2019/1/22/where-are-all-the-great-coins

I wonder what qualifies as a great set? Registry ranking, being known / remembered, something else?

WCC

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@ReadyFireAim said:

@fc said:
In my opinion, if you want your collection to retain it's value, buy one great coin. Quality over quantity. Stretch so hard it >hurts and forget doing a set or whatever.

Maybe a date or type set of high quality.

Date set Saints is 23 coins. (realistically 18)
Date $10 Indian set 15 coins (don't know enough about)
Date set of $5 Indians 10 coins (9 out of 10 doable)
Date set $2 1/2 Indians 13 coins (I think all are doable)

From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.

try collecting the quarter eagle or $5 Indians in Gem and CAC----very, very difficult to do

That isn't an actual scarcity. This would be equally true of more series than I can even count.

I am not sure why you say it isn't "actual scarcity." The term commonly used is they are condition rarities. For instance, you can get a $5 1914-S Indian in PCGS 63 for under $10,000. However, the same coin in PCGS CAC 64 (if you can find one) will cost over $60,000 (I think Legend had one last week for sale at $95,000). I guess you are referring to coins that are scarce regardless of condition. For instance an 1846 Proof dime in PCGS PR 64 went for $18,800 in the Gardner sale in 2014. This date shows a mintage of 10. Very scarce. Many factors go into scarcity beyond actual number minted The gold Indian series are very popular with a lot of demand and some dates just don't come nice. Collecting these coins in gem and CAC are extremely hard to find. It is also my opinion they well do well investment wise into the future.

The definition you are using is only relevant to US collectors and mostly because of money. Even in the US, most collectors do not buy CAC beaned coins and it isn't a factor for them. There is also no CAC equivalent anywhere else.

I'm not trying to be difficult as I am aware how US collectors think including those on this forum. Concurrently, the criteria you are using doesn't imply anything about scarcity, as every single US series prior to 1933 is probably "scarce" in gem/CAC and even more so for world and ancient coinage. So why would anyone think it has any meaning except to exaggerate and in your examples, rationalize an inflated price level?

As for the financial aspect, it's evident many who own the more expensive (US) coinage are apprehensive of future performance. If not, there wouldn't be so many topics on this subject here.

Financially, I cannot definitively tell you that you won't be right. What I can tell you is that the most expensive US coinage meeting the criteria you describe is a relatively poor numismatic value based upon its actual credentials. US collectors claim otherwise but that's primarily because I have never encountered similar exaggeration anywhere else, except in South Africa where TPG is also preferred and money has an outsized role in collecting.

metalmeister

Higher PM prices can bring more people into the coin market.
Cheers!

jmlanzaf

The definition you are using is only relevant to US collectors and mostly because of money. Even in the US, most collectors do not buy CAC beaned coins and it isn't a factor for them. There is also no CAC equivalent anywhere else.

I'm not trying to be difficult as I am aware how US collectors think including those on this forum. Concurrently, the criteria you are using doesn't imply anything about scarcity, as every single US series prior to 1933 is probably "scarce" in gem/CAC and even more so for world and ancient coinage. So why would anyone think it has any meaning except to exaggerate and in your examples, rationalize an inflated price level?

As for the financial aspect, it's evident many who own the more expensive (US) coinage are apprehensive of future performance. If not, there wouldn't be so many topics on this subject here.

Financially, I cannot definitively tell you that you won't be right. What I can tell you is that the most expensive US coinage meeting the criteria you describe is a relatively poor numismatic value based upon its actual credentials. US collectors claim otherwise but that's primarily because I have never encountered similar exaggeration anywhere else, except in South Africa where TPG is also preferred and money has an outsized role in collecting.

I agree with a lot of what @WCC is saying here, but I would add two personal observations/clarifications:

1. The market is what it is. There is no point in arguing against the market implications of TPG and CAC. It has meaning in today's market.
2. I think I would define the term "numismatic value" because of #1. If you are suggesting that market efficiency has left "no meat on the bones" for prices of U.S. coins for future appreciation, that is one thing. If you are arguing that the coins are "overpriced" because of market inefficiency, that is another. It is hard to compare value other than as market price dictates. While a Chilean coin with 10 known examples will sell for much less than a U.S. coin with 10 known examples, that is not a comparison of "poor value" for one if the market is efficient.

ReadyFireAim

@WCC said:
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE >and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.

I'm thinking the #1 reason something is scarce is because no one felt like making a bunch of them.
-Or-
Nobody thought they were worth saving.

Kinda like the Plymouth Horizon.
I'm not collecting one of those.

You can have your rare foreign coins that they only made 10 of and have weird writing on them and a picture of a worm.

Cougar1978

I analyze the CDN, PCGS 3000, Kitco, what I am able buy / sell material vis bid evaluate overall picture.

While events may happen to drive market up the trend has been the southward side in many areas.

Right now what I can buy coins for below bid more than offsets opex (non variable costs). It takes a lot of pocket, patience be in the business.

Walkerfan

@TopoftheHill said:
It took me some searching to find the referenced article, so here is a link:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2019/1/22/where-are-all-the-great-coins

Thanks for posting this. It was a good read.

WCC

@jmlanzaf said:

The definition you are using is only relevant to US collectors and mostly because of money. Even in the US, most collectors do not buy CAC beaned coins and it isn't a factor for them. There is also no CAC equivalent anywhere else.

I'm not trying to be difficult as I am aware how US collectors think including those on this forum. Concurrently, the criteria you are using doesn't imply anything about scarcity, as every single US series prior to 1933 is probably "scarce" in gem/CAC and even more so for world and ancient coinage. So why would anyone think it has any meaning except to exaggerate and in your examples, rationalize an inflated price level?

As for the financial aspect, it's evident many who own the more expensive (US) coinage are apprehensive of future performance. If not, there wouldn't be so many topics on this subject here.

Financially, I cannot definitively tell you that you won't be right. What I can tell you is that the most expensive US coinage meeting the criteria you describe is a relatively poor numismatic value based upon its actual credentials. US collectors claim otherwise but that's primarily because I have never encountered similar exaggeration anywhere else, except in South Africa where TPG is also preferred and money has an outsized role in collecting.

I agree with a lot of what @WCC is saying here, but I would add two personal observations/clarifications:

1. The market is what it is. There is no point in arguing against the market implications of TPG and CAC. It has meaning in today's market.
2. I think I would define the term "numismatic value" because of #1. If you are suggesting that market efficiency has left "no meat on the bones" for prices of U.S. coins for future appreciation, that is one thing. If you are arguing that the coins are "overpriced" because of market inefficiency, that is another. It is hard to compare value other than as market price dictates. While a Chilean coin with 10 known examples will sell for much less than a U.S. coin with 10 known examples, that is not a comparison of "poor value" for one if the market is efficient.

I wasn't arguing against either TPG or CAC. I'm not a basher of either. I don't collect any US coinage, so CAC does not affect my collecting. As for TPG, most of my coins are graded.

"Numismatic value" is a subjective term subject to collector preference. I wasn't referring to market efficiency. TPG and CAC provide people with the confidence to treat their purchase as an "investment" where it has almost no correlation with the differences in the merits as a collectible. US collectors of the more expensive US coinage imply or want others to think otherwise, but then this exactly what I would expect.

As for the future, this is my opinion of the biggest factors on the US price level, but over a very long timeframe:
1. The current financial assets mania. There is no possibility that the US price level can survive the end of the financial levitation act.
2. I agree with the above post on gold (and silver prices). I expect another metals bull market within the next 10 years. However, since the price level is already so inflated, I expect more of a repeat with 2009-2011 than either the 70's or early 2000's.
3. Adverse demographics. I believe this will impact lower priced US coinage a lot more but it may still make a difference at the margin with the upper tier as fewer collectors will likely have the same affinity for it.

WCC

@ReadyFireAim said:

@WCC said:
From these four series, the only coins I would describe as legitimately rare are the 27-D and 33 DE and 33 eagle. A few DE >and the 1920-S eagle are scarce. None of the $5 are really scarce. All of the quarter eagles are common, even the 1911-D.

I'm thinking the #1 reason something is scarce is because no one felt like making a bunch of them.
-Or-
Nobody thought they were worth saving.

Kinda like the Plymouth Horizon.
I'm not collecting one of those.

You can have your rare foreign coins that they only made 10 of and have weird writing on them and a picture of a worm.

>
Your comments have nothing to do with my post. The extract you quoted is based upon the fact that most of the coins in these four series aren't remotely hard to buy even in "high quality", except when narrow and arbitrary criteria is applied. This equally applies to most of the scarcer issues because even most of these aren't that scarce and the higher price level makes it easier to buy.

WCC

@Zoins said:

@TopoftheHill said:
It took me some searching to find the referenced article, so here is a link:

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2019/1/22/where-are-all-the-great-coins

I wonder what qualifies as a great set? Registry ranking, being known / remembered, something else?

It depends upon the criteria someone wants to use. By my definition, there are almost no "great" sets or coins because my standards require a lot more distinction than what I see from practically any US collector.

Baley

When i was a kid, no local coin shops had draped bust; so that's what i collect.