No, proof will be more popular. The 50K mintage is split between unc and proof. They need to estimate demand at some point as they work out how many of each to mint. My guess is very roughly about 2-1 proof to unc.
Based on Nurmaler's numbers, it seems like the UNCs had more orders.
no, what JBK said is right....
"No, proof will be more popular. The 50K mintage is split between unc and proof. They need to estimate demand at some point as they work out how many of each to mint. My guess is very roughly about 2-1 proof to unc."
But doesn't the current sales (given your backorder numbers) indicate more uncs ordered now? Otherwise, why is the available backorder HIGHER for the proofs than the uncs? Or are you saying that you don't know what the original split was?
@segoja said:
So you can't cancel backorders???? Not sure about that
Bet much of this gets returned if it can't get cancelled....but I'm not sure orders can't be cancelled.
I got one of my back orders CANCELLED last night. Just check cancelled.
I have 1 more on Backorder and 2 on Processing. I will decide later how many I want to return. I think First Strike ciut off date is end of?
That will also determine my cancel decisions. I just hope the Mint Won’t BAN me or Punish me for going over the percentage rate. I would hate to file a multi million dollar law suit against the Mint.
???? As far as I'm concerned, these are excellent numbers....over 300,000 coins sold in 1/2 day.
For those hoping for near instant sellouts, selling only half in a day is pretty bad. I'm keeping the one set of 5 pucks that have shipped (already flipped for a small profit), but canceling the rest that were on backorder. I expect these numbers could go backwards for a few days if others do the same.
@segoja said:
HHL are off......predict prices will plummet
How many orders do you think get cancelled today?????
Maybe all the flippers
None will get cancelled. The orders go automatically to process, unless hold because of a problem.. Once in process they can't be canceled. Only option is return.
If the April 30 for back ordered is accurate then I will leave my first strike eligible sealed and see where the chips fall.
Not true. 3 of my 4 orders for pucks were backordered, and they are letting me cancel them today. I am keeping the one order that has shipped already.
I cancelled my 2 orders that have not shipped yet before seeing these numbers: Cancelled my backordered pucks and my gold proof + uncirc. My other gold proof that has already shipped I will keep. Kind of surprised they are so low.
It will be interesting to see when backorders start to ship. If they really take until May, first strikes may be pretty rare for the pucks. I can't believe the mint had less than 50,000 pucks ready to go... that may end up costing them a lot of money in the end.
The question now is, will any of it EVER sell out? Especially with the slew of cancellations and returns that is probably imminent.
I suppose if the coins look outstanding in person then more sales will follow, but I really expected more first day sales of some of the items.
I would guess: pucks, Kennedy half dollar set will ultimately sell out. Those are only 100k mintages, which is a lot but we're halfway there (pending cancellations) and I'm fairly certain that the secondary markets for those (space fans for the pucks and Kennedy half collectors) haven't completely kicked in yet.
Gold is going to be hard, but possible: 50,000 is a lot but they sold half of them on the 1st day.
The rest of them aren't really designed to sell out. The mintages are way too high.
How long for the rest of the pucks and gold to sell out? Will dealers grab the rest in bulk quickly or will sales slowly taper off for another month or 2?
So the mint only made half of the 100K pucks...if nobody else orders the remaining pucks what would happen to the remaining 50K pucks? Melted? Would that then reduce the mintage to only 50K that were sold so far??? Just curious and would love to hear your input.
@CCC2010 said:
So the mint only made half of the 100K pucks...if nobody else orders the remaining pucks what would happen to the remaining 50K pucks? Melted? Would that then reduce the mintage to only 50K that were sold so far??? Just curious and would love to hear your input.
They didn't even make that many. They quickly went to backorder, meaning out of 50,000 that were ordered, far less are already made and ready to ship.
@CCC2010 said:
So the mint only made half of the 100K pucks...if nobody else orders the remaining pucks what would happen to the remaining 50K pucks? Melted? Would that then reduce the mintage to only 50K that were sold so far??? Just curious and would love to hear your input.
I don't think they made half - they sold half but many of those are on backorder.
Any unsold would be melted, and obviously any left unminted would not be minted.
The mintages are "authorized mintages", or maximums. The silver dollars and clad halves will likely not come close to their authorized mintages, in which case final numbers will be lower.
A guess. If these coins have not sold-out by 20 July then I suspect they will soon thereafter and a factor is if there is publicity outside of the coin collector community. There are many non-collectors who will want these if they knew about them.
@Pedzola said:
How long for the rest of the pucks and gold to sell out? Will dealers grab the rest in bulk quickly or will sales slowly taper off for another month or 2?
My guess (and it is just a guess) is that with the sluggish first day sales, dealers will be apprehensive about grabbing the rest. If the demand isn't there on day 1, the demand down the road probably won't be there either.
There have been cases in the past where slow sales led to lower mintages which later led to short supply and higher values. The 3 coin Silver Eagle set from 2006 (?) comes to mind. It languished for months until sales ended and then prices took off. I casually bought a few sets in the last week or two of availability and then watched as prices shot up as soon as they went off sale (I watched, but did not sell ).
The Apollo coins are historical, attractive, and unique, so they may have a longer term following.
@Gluggo said:
So I just check its night now and looks like there still selling no major sell outs just back orders which I guess still available.
I take that back looks like the Apollo 11 50th Anniversary 2019 Engraved Print is out they only made 8000 of them.
“Orders for the first of three intaglio prints produced by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing rendered that product “currently unavailable.” However, U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said Mint officials will not officially announce a sellout of the Mission intaglio print until the Mint completes order reconciliation.” https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/2019/01/sufficient-orders-for-two-apollo-11-products.html
The Mint’s site is showing Sold Out”, so it looks like the reconciliation is complete.
My enrollment for the print is still showing back-ordered. I guess this will be cancelled by the mint. Maybe I was the 8001st enrollment.
WOW #'s. Got to eat some crow, I was wrong. Thought the pucks would do much better. Since many will not be filled for a few months I will have to change my strategy. My overnight shipped today I will have to list tomorrow 'In Hand" with a nice homemade picture. I should be one of the first in hand and get out of 4 giving a discounted puck for me.
@nurmaler said:
If anyone has live 5oz silver orders (not backordered) and is thinking about canceling or returning, message me, I'd buy for cost + a tad.
"tad" = "ton a dollars" ?
Good option for anyone who got in before the backorder but is having cold feet.
No, proof will be more popular. The 50K mintage is split between unc and proof. They need to estimate demand at some point as they work out how many of each to mint. My guess is very roughly about 2-1 proof to unc.
Based on Nurmaler's numbers, it seems like the UNCs had more orders.
no, what JBK said is right....
"No, proof will be more popular. The 50K mintage is split between unc and proof. They need to estimate demand at some point as they work out how many of each to mint. My guess is very roughly about 2-1 proof to unc."
@Gluggo said:
So I just check its night now and looks like there still selling no major sell outs just back orders which I guess still available.
I take that back looks like the Apollo 11 50th Anniversary 2019 Engraved Print is out they only made 8000 of them.
“Orders for the first of three intaglio prints produced by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing rendered that product “currently unavailable.” However, U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said Mint officials will not officially announce a sellout of the Mission intaglio print until the Mint completes order reconciliation.” https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/2019/01/sufficient-orders-for-two-apollo-11-products.html
The Mint’s site is showing Sold Out”, so it looks like the reconciliation is complete.
My enrollment for the print is still showing back-ordered. I guess this will be cancelled by the mint. Maybe I was the 8001st enrollment.
Has anyone experienced an unfulfilled enrollment?
I'm backordered too. I'd be surprised if Moneyfactory printed all of 'em. I'm not sure the BEP ever had a day one sell-out on their prints before.
It was silly of them to put an 8K limit on the prints. It's not like these are even remotely covered by any sort of printing law.
Note the enrollments are sold out. The print itself is still currently unavailable.
It wouldn't surprise me if many people visiting the Mint website saw the "Backorder" notification and simply didn't place an order assuming that meant that the pucks weren't currently available. I admit that crossed my mind when I got on the site. It might have been a better idea to leave the "Place in Bag" box alone with the "Backorder"disclaimer in small print below it or perhaps mentioned on the "Checkout" page.
@Pedzola said:
How long for the rest of the pucks and gold to sell out? Will dealers grab the rest in bulk quickly or will sales slowly taper off for another month or 2?
My guess (and it is just a guess) is that with the sluggish first day sales, dealers will be apprehensive about grabbing the rest. If the demand isn't there on day 1, the demand down the road probably won't be there either.
There have been cases in the past where slow sales led to lower mintages which later led to short supply and higher values. The 3 coin Silver Eagle set from 2006 (?) comes to mind. It languished for months until sales ended and then prices took off. I casually bought a few sets in the last week or two of availability and then watched as prices shot up as soon as they went off sale (I watched, but did not sell ).
The better example is the '08 high relief, but I have no illusions that these won't do as well.
The Apollo coins are historical, attractive, and unique, so they may have a longer term following.
Hey, they only have 11 more months of sales...
I bought for my collection, so I really don't care about sales. (I think my enthusiasm for the Mark Twain commems prove that. )
I thought they'd sell better as well, so my main concern was that I got what I wanted. I haven't had to chase 7 different products at the same time in a long time.
How many tried to flip on ebay? Maybe the Mint finally killed the flippers, and they've lost interest, and what we're seeing is the actual collector base. That's happened with a lot of other issues, like the platinum proof...
I'm backordered too. I'd be surprised if Moneyfactory printed all of 'em. I'm not sure the BEP ever had a day one sell-out on their prints before.
It was silly of them to put an 8K limit on the prints. It's not like these are even remotely covered by any sort of printing law.
Note the enrollments are sold out. The print itself is still currently unavailable.
Thanks @BackroadJunkie gives me a glimmer of hope. Went back and checked the status and just realized the order was placed on 23 Jan (via enrollment) a day before it was open for ordering on the website.
Really hoping to get this... looking forward to do an engraving and coin(s) framing thing.
There have been cases in the past where slow sales led to lower mintages which later led to short supply and higher values. The 3 coin Silver Eagle set from 2006 (?) comes to mind. It languished for months until sales ended and then prices took off. I casually bought a few sets in the last week or two of availability and then watched as prices shot up as soon as they went off sale (I watched, but did not sell ).
The better example is the '08 high relief, but I have no illusions that these won't do as well.
Yes, that one is a great example, but since I did not buy it after a short period of wavering, I have blocked it from my memory.
But I made up for it by getting the set of gold Mercury dime/SL quarter/WL half.
I predict the aftermarket in short order will be well below the mints issue price, as is virtually the case on all mint issued products. Yes there are exceptions, but they are far and few between.
Who you trying to convince aren't you a modern guy?
Just stating facts Yes we do moderns, but the majority of our business is traditional coinage. We have never made a market in the modern commems. Same goes for Spouses, etc. We do buy and sell these as coins are offered.
Good call! That saved you a lot of heartache with the spouses. Those overall were a financial beat down for a number of dealers. May be the same with commemoratives, judging from history.
The Mint most likely got tired of all the whining from people that didn’t get their coins in past issues with low mintages. So, they drove it up.
Yet, they still remain the most flexible of return policies.
Depends how far along. If they are sent to packaging, you can not. They still show processing even though they can be a various stages.
I was able to cancel all but one of mine. That one had been sent off for shipmen processing, even though it had not yet shipped. It still shoed the same status in the order history.
Every Mint order I've made in the last year still shows as "Processing". Has been that way for quite some time. Selecting a order number only comes back to the Order History screen. Useless.
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Re the Puck backorder message...I really think that caused significant confusion re backorder vs sellout. They probably should have just allowed you to place the order without that message up front as it likely deterred hundreds or thousands or potential buyers. Plus the April/May backorder date also likely scared off many hoping for a quick flip.
Comments
Probably because I canceled one of my backorders... lol. I have a few more still backordered... trying to decide whether to keep or cancel
I was kind of hoping mine would stay on backorder for a little while to spread out the credit card damage.
Nope, never mind. It's back to "backordered"...
Bastards.
But doesn't the current sales (given your backorder numbers) indicate more uncs ordered now? Otherwise, why is the available backorder HIGHER for the proofs than the uncs? Or are you saying that you don't know what the original split was?
First day sales as reported by Coin News.
http://www.coinnews.net/2019/01/25/apollo-11-commemorative-coin-sales-reach-296311-in-first-day/
-Proof $5 Gold Coin: 15,544
-Uncirculated $5 Gold Coin: 7,781
-Proof Silver Dollar: 86,073
-Uncirculated Silver Dollar: 35,380
-Proof Clad Half Dollar: 29,560
-Uncirculated Clad Half Dollar: 20,877
-Proof Half Dollar Set: 49,825
-Proof $1 Five Ounce Silver Coin: 51,271
I got one of my back orders CANCELLED last night. Just check cancelled.
I have 1 more on Backorder and 2 on Processing. I will decide later how many I want to return. I think First Strike ciut off date is end of?
That will also determine my cancel decisions. I just hope the Mint Won’t BAN me or Punish me for going over the percentage rate. I would hate to file a multi million dollar law suit against the Mint.
Yikes, worse numbers than I would have thought.
With the household limit on gold that number doesn't surprise me. The puck number however does surprise me.
???? As far as I'm concerned, these are excellent numbers....over 300,000 coins sold in 1/2 day.
sad!
For those hoping for near instant sellouts, selling only half in a day is pretty bad. I'm keeping the one set of 5 pucks that have shipped (already flipped for a small profit), but canceling the rest that were on backorder. I expect these numbers could go backwards for a few days if others do the same.
Actually, most of those are pretty much what I would have expected except for the Pucks. I thought the pucks would be better.
Not true. 3 of my 4 orders for pucks were backordered, and they are letting me cancel them today. I am keeping the one order that has shipped already.
Thx for posting those #s.
The question now is, will any of it EVER sell out? Especially with the slew of cancellations and returns that is probably imminent.
I suppose if the coins look outstanding in person then more sales will follow, but I really expected more first day sales of some of the items.
I cancelled my 2 orders that have not shipped yet before seeing these numbers: Cancelled my backordered pucks and my gold proof + uncirc. My other gold proof that has already shipped I will keep. Kind of surprised they are so low.
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It will be interesting to see when backorders start to ship. If they really take until May, first strikes may be pretty rare for the pucks. I can't believe the mint had less than 50,000 pucks ready to go... that may end up costing them a lot of money in the end.
I would guess: pucks, Kennedy half dollar set will ultimately sell out. Those are only 100k mintages, which is a lot but we're halfway there (pending cancellations) and I'm fairly certain that the secondary markets for those (space fans for the pucks and Kennedy half collectors) haven't completely kicked in yet.
Gold is going to be hard, but possible: 50,000 is a lot but they sold half of them on the 1st day.
The rest of them aren't really designed to sell out. The mintages are way too high.
How long for the rest of the pucks and gold to sell out? Will dealers grab the rest in bulk quickly or will sales slowly taper off for another month or 2?
My Gold Type Set
So the mint only made half of the 100K pucks...if nobody else orders the remaining pucks what would happen to the remaining 50K pucks? Melted? Would that then reduce the mintage to only 50K that were sold so far??? Just curious and would love to hear your input.
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They didn't even make that many. They quickly went to backorder, meaning out of 50,000 that were ordered, far less are already made and ready to ship.
I don't think they made half - they sold half but many of those are on backorder.
Any unsold would be melted, and obviously any left unminted would not be minted.
The mintages are "authorized mintages", or maximums. The silver dollars and clad halves will likely not come close to their authorized mintages, in which case final numbers will be lower.
Apollo 11 landing was on 20 July 1969.
A guess. If these coins have not sold-out by 20 July then I suspect they will soon thereafter and a factor is if there is publicity outside of the coin collector community. There are many non-collectors who will want these if they knew about them.
My guess (and it is just a guess) is that with the sluggish first day sales, dealers will be apprehensive about grabbing the rest. If the demand isn't there on day 1, the demand down the road probably won't be there either.
There have been cases in the past where slow sales led to lower mintages which later led to short supply and higher values. The 3 coin Silver Eagle set from 2006 (?) comes to mind. It languished for months until sales ended and then prices took off. I casually bought a few sets in the last week or two of availability and then watched as prices shot up as soon as they went off sale (I watched, but did not sell
).
The Apollo coins are historical, attractive, and unique, so they may have a longer term following.
When I saw backorder around 12:09 I figured it meant they were all gone. Wonder how many abandoned purchase when backorder was shown.
My Gold Type Set
That is interesting. How many stopped after seeing they had to wait until May to get one or thought they were sold out?
Don't quote me on that.
Where are people finding the “backordered until May” details?
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Comment that is in red when you add to cart, states: 30 April.
If anyone has live 5oz silver orders (not backordered) and is thinking about canceling or returning, message me, I'd buy for cost + a tad.
“Orders for the first of three intaglio prints produced by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing rendered that product “currently unavailable.” However, U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said Mint officials will not officially announce a sellout of the Mission intaglio print until the Mint completes order reconciliation.” https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/2019/01/sufficient-orders-for-two-apollo-11-products.html
The Mint’s site is showing Sold Out”, so it looks like the reconciliation is complete.
My enrollment for the print is still showing back-ordered. I guess this will be cancelled by the mint. Maybe I was the 8001st enrollment.
Has anyone experienced an unfulfilled enrollment?
back-ordered is just that. If they don't cancel it, the order is live. Back-ordered just means the shipping is delayed due to inventory
I just got the half dollar set.
WOW #'s. Got to eat some crow, I was wrong. Thought the pucks would do much better. Since many will not be filled for a few months I will have to change my strategy. My overnight shipped today I will have to list tomorrow 'In Hand" with a nice homemade picture. I should be one of the first in hand and get out of 4 giving a discounted puck for me.
"tad" = "ton a dollars" ?
Good option for anyone who got in before the backorder but is having cold feet.
I'm backordered too. I'd be surprised if Moneyfactory printed all of 'em. I'm not sure the BEP ever had a day one sell-out on their prints before.
It was silly of them to put an 8K limit on the prints. It's not like these are even remotely covered by any sort of printing law.
Note the enrollments are sold out. The print itself is still currently unavailable.
There are a bunch of us who didn't have the pucks flagged as backordered when we ordered, and the estimated fill date isn't on your order history.
Also note that the date given is highly pessimistic. Product usually ships well before that date.
Did you just order the half set, or do you have it in hand?
If the latter, can you post some pics of the Kennedy? The Mint's pics suck...
It wouldn't surprise me if many people visiting the Mint website saw the "Backorder" notification and simply didn't place an order assuming that meant that the pucks weren't currently available. I admit that crossed my mind when I got on the site. It might have been a better idea to leave the "Place in Bag" box alone with the "Backorder"disclaimer in small print below it or perhaps mentioned on the "Checkout" page.
The better example is the '08 high relief, but I have no illusions that these won't do as well.
Hey, they only have 11 more months of sales...
I bought for my collection, so I really don't care about sales. (I think my enthusiasm for the Mark Twain commems prove that.
)
I thought they'd sell better as well, so my main concern was that I got what I wanted. I haven't had to chase 7 different products at the same time in a long time.
How many tried to flip on ebay? Maybe the Mint finally killed the flippers, and they've lost interest, and what we're seeing is the actual collector base. That's happened with a lot of other issues, like the platinum proof...
Thanks @BackroadJunkie gives me a glimmer of hope. Went back and checked the status and just realized the order was placed on 23 Jan (via enrollment) a day before it was open for ordering on the website.
Really hoping to get this... looking forward to do an engraving and coin(s) framing thing.
Yes, that one is a great example, but since I did not buy it after a short period of wavering, I have blocked it from my memory.
But I made up for it by getting the set of gold Mercury dime/SL quarter/WL half.
Good call! That saved you a lot of heartache with the spouses. Those overall were a financial beat down for a number of dealers. May be the same with commemoratives, judging from history.
The Mint most likely got tired of all the whining from people that didn’t get their coins in past issues with low mintages. So, they drove it up.
Yet, they still remain the most flexible of return policies.
Just FYI Orders that show processing CAN be cancelled, contrary to popular opinion.
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Just called and tried to cancel an order. Was told it was too far along to be cancelled.
Still shows as processing.
Depends how far along. If they are sent to packaging, you can not. They still show processing even though they can be a various stages.
I was able to cancel all but one of mine. That one had been sent off for shipmen processing, even though it had not yet shipped. It still shoed the same status in the order history.
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Every Mint order I've made in the last year still shows as "Processing". Has been that way for quite some time. Selecting a order number only comes back to the Order History screen. Useless.
Do we call this a just a commemorative and not a coin or do we consider this also a coin?
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Is it just me or do the designs look artistically challenged?
Re the Puck backorder message...I really think that caused significant confusion re backorder vs sellout. They probably should have just allowed you to place the order without that message up front as it likely deterred hundreds or thousands or potential buyers. Plus the April/May backorder date also likely scared off many hoping for a quick flip.
I know it caused daubts in my brain.
Also surprised the Kennedy half series collectors didn't snap up a higher percentage of the available montage...for a relatively low cost item.