I think my tastes have priced me out of US numismatics
Boosibri
Posts: 12,410 ✭✭✭✭✭
After ten years of collecting US gold I have come to a point where I find it difficult to balance quality, rarity and value in a way that makes me feel comfortable in deploying thousands of dollars towards most coins any longer.
I recently passed on an amazing coin which was priced just short of $20k. The APR's absolutely justified the price but I struggled to see the inherent value in this issue and many others any longer.
Since moving to Europe my interest in world coins has significantly advanced and I've seen how I can build a top end set of Spanish Colonials or world coins from Early America, Irish moderns, all which in the quality I pursue could be considered R5-R7, and all at a fraction of the price of a nice quality but significantly more available piece of US gold that I have pursued. Sure the demand is different and the market thinner but I feel as though the value is materially greater with these issues and my ability to build a meaningful set is enhanced. I'll still buy the odd piece of US gold which fits my tastes for rarity, quality and value but I feel the ride has turned for me in my interests.
Just sharing while I have an Aperol Spitz from a hot cafe in Italy.
Comments
For some of us, it happened 10-12 years ago. There is greater value elsewhere in the World of numismatics
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
High quality US coins are a poor value for the money at current levels. The darkside beckons.
The grass is always greener on the other side, that is until you get there. It is the quality that you demand that makes it hard, not the market. Although you will be able to put a dark side set together at a fraction of the cost, you will still question the value as you pay well above market in most cases for the quality you seek.
Joseph J. Singleton - First Superintendent of the U.S. Branch Mint in Dahlonega Georgia
Findley Ridge Collection
About Findley Ridge
I have come to the same conclusion. Over the last five + years I have acquired some coins that I never dreamed I would have in my collection, but I have had to over pay to get some of them. I have purchased coins that were very nice, which please me very much, but which were over graded in the holder and therefore overpriced. (Yes, there are no “green beans” in these coin’s futures unless “grade-flation” comes to CAC.) Others I simply over paid in the auction format. I have come to despise auctions because over paying comes with the territory. There seem to be very few "fair deals" in the auction format for me. If a dealer has what I want, I’d prefer to give him the profit, and I usually over pay less in private treaty transactions.
My grossly over paying days are coming to end. I have a few coins (a few "easy ones" and one that just got a lot harder for no good reason other than speculator greed) left to complete two sets that I really would like to finish. After that I’m going low profile. There are a couple of big coins I’d love to get, but grade-flation has driven their prices to levels that are 50% higher than they were five years ago. Yes, there are pockets in this “bad market” which have continued to show huge price increases, at least when dealers are selling. I can’t say if that is true when they are buying. It might just be a one way market.
The high prices are taking the fun out of this hobby. CAC has also taken the fun out of this hobby. Now coins that I have owned for over 25 years now have “invalid” grades if one man decides they don’t meet his standards. The expense and risk of loss from transporting my collection to “the Oracle in New Jersey” to see if my selections meet the standards of “the prophet” would be huge. If that must be done, then it will be considered when it comes to time to sell though a major auction house.
I love coins, tokens and medals; I love history; I love the sense of accomplishment when I complete a set. I hate the market, and I hate the games.
True. I have maintained my standards in quality and while I still pay up for quality vs the average for tr market, the available information is less, market more thin, and value still much greater.
I bought what is possibly the single finest extant Charles IV 8 escudos for any date for less than a marginal quality 1838-D $5 in mid AU. Which has more potential in the market?
Latin American Collection
My "dark side" sets have been 19th presidential campaign medalets, which I have collected for many years, selected tokens and medals and at least one coin from each Brishish monarch that is collectable. Those sets have been a lot fun, and they have been far less expensive overall. Ten grand is a huge amount for an item in these collections. For U.S. coins it's a down payment in many cases.
I'm sorry to hear you're slowing down in the U.S. realm, Boosibri. You've managed to acquire (and sometimes offer) some of the most attractive and original coins seen on these boards. I'll keep collecting and pursuing those last few pieces I'm still looking for. For me, quality means everything these days -- if & when it comes time to sell, that will be a driving factor when considering pricing levels. My interests are purely for enjoyment - the historical value, and the fun (thrill is a bit over the top for me) of the chase. I'm pretty sure you'd agree - one can't look at coins as a primary investment - that's for other investment vehicles. Of course, we should also stay vigilant to not take a long, hot bath on a coin when it comes to purchasing it either - therein lies the growing challenge.
regards,
'dude
I understand what OP feels but not all US gold has become overpriced based upon rarity. Boosbiri you mentioned the high cost of a marginal 1838-D in mid AU. Absolutely--that particular coin will always be "too expensive" based solely on rarity because it is a Dahlonega coin and it is a one year type coin. You will also be paid "too much" when you sell.
But plenty of beautiful super rare gold coins exist at fair prices or even undervalued. The liberty quarter eagle series is full of them. I have a 1844 liberty quarter eagle PCGS AU 58 CAC. PCGS has graded only 3 coins higher (a 62 an two 60s). Only two have been beaned with a higher grade than mine. Mine and two others have been graded 58. I have a condition census coin for a very rare date and paid just a little over $5000 for it. If it was a St Gaudens coin with a similar population it would be around a 6 figure coin. This is one reason why I like this series---really rare dates, the ability to buy condition census coins and at a fair or even undervalued price.
I agree with you that certain coins like the Indian gold series make me shake my head when I see the prices and populations. But series like Liberty Quarter Eagles still have what I think you are looking for (although I can tell you that I have noticed a significant uptick of collectors by date of this series so who knows maybe the prices here will surge too).
@Gazes I agree on the fact that many coins have not become overvalued relative to the broader US market like the 42 and 44 $2.5's, the 42 $5's and other 1840's to 1850's $5's. Relative to other world items those are even over valued but I will keep collecting those tough US issues which get me back to my original collecting roots of undervalued US gold in EF/AU.
Latin American Collection
I think my tastes have priced me out of US numismatics
I can't think of a way to re-phrase that so that it makes a little better sense, but the thought in general describes what happened to me many, many years ago. there is really no logic in a Numismatic price structure aside from this: the wealthiest collectors decide overall market prices based on how much they are willing to spend. I don't begrudge them for that but I realized a long time ago that I needed to find different areas within the Hobby that interested me, areas with beautiful items, interesting history, true rarity and prices not dictated by the wealthiest collectors.
I own items which have historic significance and true ultra rarity combined with beauty. I will actively collect there as long as the wealthy collectors let me. if they ever decide they like those types of items I will have to move on.
Interesting perspective. I find it strange that I have become interested in, and indeed purchased, some darkside material of late. Cheers, RickO
I think my tastes have priced me out of much of everything!!!
The eastern liberal arts college that I graduated from in 1980 cost my parents $6K per year...today I am paying $69K per year for my daughter to attend a similar one...
I'm guessing that the OP's thoughts are the morning after musing of yesterday's successful DOG preview sale...
Personally my solution is to try to become a billionaire so I can buy whatever I want...and in the near-term keep my collection small without compromising on quality...
Thin(ner) markets don't necessarily mean thin ice or lower ROI. In US I'm
More concerned with "Return OF Investment" vs "Return ON Investment".
For US coins it is tough to see the supply becoming smaller or the demand becoming materially greater vs a much less developed world market with many interesting and outstanding pieces still to be discovered.
Despite spending quite a bit on the hobby, I am far from a big enough player to swim in the deepest end of the US pool. I can however build world class sets in other areas with more favorable fundamentals without compromising my focus on quality.
Latin American Collection
It is easy to justify why something is better for a cheaper price. I think you might miss the challenge of finding the hard coins that everyone wants in contrast to finding the easy coins that no one wants. I wish you success!
Edit, I misinterpreted Boosibri's comment above. Please disregard my comment here.
You miss my point entirely. The coins I'm after are much rarer than the US coins and are far more difficult to find.
Latin American Collection
I have been collecting British coins for each king. Some of those pieces are quite rare, and only show up in dealers' inventories or auctions less than once a year. Most of the "key date" U.S. coins that collectors cherish and specialize in are down right common when you compare them to a lot of "dark side" material.
Here's one way to llok it. The most common Civil War token variety is many times rarer than a 1909-S-VDB cent.
Unfortunately I agree with the OP, and that is the state of it. Comments to the contrary above seem not so well informed. British coins, for example are NOT thinly traded or held and in fact present, as do many other country series that are just as challenging & in fact in many incidences more challenging as there are many that have figured this out and are avidly hunting them out. Not to mention that growth has been phenomenal on better pieces.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Your story rhymes a bit with that of Frank Sedwick, an American coin collector who came to specialize in the gold coins of the Colombian Republic. I'm sure you've heard of him, his son currently runs an auction house that specialized in old Latin American gold. Anyway, Dr. Sedwick's collection was largely dispursed in a 2011 auction run by his son. A picture of the auction catalog is below, which contains a 1-page bio & some comments on the collection. This collector's experience, to include the prices realized in this auction (caveat: at the bottom of the Great Recession, obscure auction house, &c.) vis a vis the rarity of these coins and the efforts it must have taken to find them, might be instructive.
Just when one figures out that darkside is priced lower, they realize that SELLING those coins can present a hurdle.
My own shift has been to more esoteric US material.
That Moffat $5 California territorial gold has got me into some more arcane areas of US collecting.
At least for now.
Coins are in my blood. US coins are from my interest as a youth.
I own some foreign but it is definitely in the minority.
I do like darkside large gold.
My "new" direction will undoubtedly pose the old "liquidation" dilemma, but it's what I like so i'll keep it up.
My mistake. I hate to see you go!
Thanks, not going but just will not actively pursuing as much rare gold as before.
Latin American Collection
The same occurred with me several years ago. Not only did the prices squeeze up, but I had trouble getting the coins even when I was willing to pay high prices.
When coins were less expensive, I could justify owning them as a collector. When they became more expensive, at some point, I realized that I was going to need to sell these things at some point.
Alas, here I am with just a handful of US gold coins, none worth more than $2500 or so and maybe 20+ type and foreign coins, also lower value. It's stuff that I enjoy looking at and do not have to worry about value loss, storage, the coin market, exit strategy, APRs, auction consignment, dealer networks, what happens if I unexpectedly die, etc., things that concerned me when I had a substantially larger collection.
This is where I am now. I am looking for two coins that don't have much of any reputation for rarity, yet I can't hook up with them. One piece is plagued with cleaned coins and the other is almost never available unless it is in a "details holder."
Boosibri I also have been making this transition, though not as decisively as you. I just see to gravitate toward and purchase more early Irish and colonial era World coinage than U.S. If I was living in Ireland, or Europe again, I think the decision would be a very simple one.
Tom
The US coin market is mature and I think the prices clearly reflect that.
Especially with all the ways the hobby found to squeeze money out of the collector.
I think world coins are the best bet for price appreciation these days. Globalization has transferred wealth to many other countries and I think coin collecting will pick up around countries with improving and growing economies and populations (China, India, and parts of Latin/South America)
Many younger coin collectors seem to either be collecting bullion (generic, government and collectible) or world coins as the "value" of US coins are not what they use to be.
I think there are a lot of awesome designs, cool history behind many foreign coins and affordable series to collect.
I am still collecting US coins but my collection is about 50/50 and will probably be 60/40 in favor of world coins soon. Just my opinion on things...
I am enjoying the World Coins in Early Americas theme as many of the issues are more associated with colonial America than the recognized US Colonials included in the Redbook
Latin American Collection
I can apply the same statement to say seated quarters where 90% or more of all the dates in the series are rarer than a 1909-s vdb cent. Then you have to find a way to get people to collect them vs. Lincoln cents. Most are happy with a seated quarter or two by type.
I think we are in the same boat......and I doubt we have to worry about the big guys with deep pockets wanting to buy our coins.
Same church different pew. I'm actually getting somewhat bored with US coins in general. I'm gradually slowing down on Federal coins and gravitating towards historical medals and esoteric US material.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The same was encountered here 20 years ago -- can't afford what I like and don't like what I can afford.
That is why I love the error coin field.
There are so many different types of errors in all forms of eye appeal or not.
I never know what coin I am going to buy next week.
Let me say it this way...Which group of coins would George Washington have been the most familiar with?
Group A:
Or Group B:
The Coins of Group B were circulated in the United States as legal tender for all of Washington's lifetime! The Coins of Group A came to be only in the final years of Washington's life - or afterward.
While the Group B coins were not made here, they served as the official medium of financial exchange during colonial times in America. So, they bear a lot of history -- American history!
Probably both. Many of the coins in Group B were legal tender in the US until 1857.
Cardinal - Group B of course.
Washington would never have seen a Two Cent Piece, and he may not have seen neither the 1798 dime or the 1799 dollar since he died in December 1799 well away from Philadelphia where those coins probably circulated the most.
So a followup to the OP---i hear the market has been in doldrums for years (people speculate all the time on what is keeping values down) but on the other hand many responses to the OP agree that prices haven risen so much that collectors are being priced out----can both be true ?
Yes. Many of the fancy gold coins that Boosibri and I collect have gotten more expensive, at least in the auctions, over the last five years or so. One the other hand, the 2009 deep recession and continuing slow ecomony has hurt middle class collectors who buy coins in the up to $2,000 or so range. Demand is down to common date Morgan Dollars, and most coins in the circulated grades.
This is a bifurcated market. The coins for the upper end collectors are in short supply while the pieces for middle class people have had much lower demand and lower prices.
Maybe we could get a Yogi type saying going like his "nobody goes there any more.....it's too crowded!".
I too am testing the waters with world coins. Picked up several world crowns for an album and working on a several world silver bullion series. Helps that silver is down too!
Your main problem is you sat at a cafe in Italy posting this thread instead of winking at a potential Sugar Mama
I understand exactly what you mean, but the term "meaningful set" can refer to anything from a top-quality set in a niche to a set that fulfills one's own desires, regardless of market. However, I know where you are going with this. In my case , I have been attempting to add more quality world material to my site, but it moves so slowly that it can be difficult to justify.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Spanish portraits would have been common place, especially 2 reales.
Look at the mintages/availability of quarters vs half dollars. The Spanish minted few 4 reales thus the US minted many, the Spanish minted several 2 reales thus fewer quarters.
Latin American Collection
Honestly this might be a welcomed change of direction as who is going to make you whole in the future on these U.S. rarities? The average current 30 year old American has an interest in Video Games & Zombies not History. Just something to keep in mind when dropping 5-8 figures on a coin these days.
It's a flight to quality. Higher quality coins are a different market. And it's possible that the higher quality stuff can run out of steam while the rest of the market just keeps chugging along. I saw it happen with local real estate. Top of the market reacted differently, and right now the very expensive houses are slow while the rest of them are moving nicely.
My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
Interesting thread. Over the past year, I began buying world coins just for something different and have really enjoyed learning so many new things. It is kind of addictive and so much new stuff for me to learn. For example, I never knew the following until I started poking around the dark side (Hopefully I have it correct):
Prior to 1971 Decimalization
12 Pence = 1 Shilling
1 Florin = 2 Shillings
2 Florin = 4 Shillings
1 Crown = 5 Shillings
1/2 Crown = 2.5 Shillings
1 Pound (£1)= 20 Shillings =240 Pence = 1 Sovereign
A £1 coin was called a Sovereign and was made of gold. A paper pound often was called a 'quid'.
Great Britain Monarchs
King George IV 1820 1830 Son of George III
King William IV 1830 1837 Son of George III
Queen Victoria 1837 1901 Granddaughter of George III
King Edward VII 1901 1910 Son of Victoria
King George V 1910 1936 Son of Edward VII
King Edward VIII 1936 1936 Abdicated Son of George V
King George VI 1936 1952 Son of George V
Queen Elizabeth II 1952 Daughter of George VI
I hear ya.
I recently passed on an amazing coin which was priced just short of $150.
Just sharing while I have a Rolling Rock from a hot cafe in Yakima.
Yep, this is an eye-opening thread for sure.
I've been a coin collector for 40+ years, but I've never really been a series collector. It's hard to empathize with people who "need" a particular coin to satisfy a hole in their set. I've always gone after pieces I thought were really cool or beautiful. My collection evolved to a box of 20 several years ago, with about half the pieces US and half darkside. And it's continued to evolve to where many of the US pieces are US in name only, like the pine tree shilling, or have been squeezed out by US exonumia (I really don't like that term
).
I now have just four spaces that are "regular" US coins, and two of those are special one year type pieces (1913 buffalo, 1921 peace).
My current Box of 20
--Severian the Lame
Just a suggestion....
Newfoundland Gold $ 2 coins. Yes, Dark Side but absolutely tops!
If NFL were a US state, the price for these would be 10 to 20 times than what it is.
These coins in high grade are increasing every year. Try and find a AU 1880, never mind a MS.
one needs a friendly banker for some of them.