Options
How dumb are some consignors to or buyers from auction ?
STEWARTBLAYNUMIS
Posts: 2,697 ✭✭✭✭
I notice all the time how a coin bought out of a Heritage auction is suddenly (within a year) reconsigned to
a later Heritage auction with a higher grade
Do these consignors think we are morons ?
For example a 1925 D Lincoln cent that went from ms 65 red to Ms 65 + red
Another example is the 1895 O Barber dime that went from Ms 66 to MS 67
0
Comments
I suppose they'll stop doing it just as soon as it stops making them money....
But with the upgrade and its historical evidence of such, there's still buyers who ignore this and will chase the higher grade for their collection and Registry sets.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
I have wondered that too, how do you tell its the same coin
Is every coin that has upgraded an overgraded coin?
What happens is the grading services get more submissions and they make more money.
We ,the old time collectors , are seduced into regrading our coins because the market value for the old grade has gone down in value.
Well most often someone will buy it at the higher grade it seems. The more knowledgeable folks, mainly dealers or advanced collectors, will notice that it was in an earlier auction at a lower grade / price but many of the bidders are not aware of the history of the coin.
The registry sets say nothing about the quality of the coins, just the grade. There is a difference as we know (or should know!) but some folks don't focus on that. Sort of like having amplifiers that go to 11.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=KOO5S4vxi0o
K
I have also seen the same thing with coins ending up in the same grade holder and re-auctioned either at the same site, or one of the others. Not all of the crackouts upgrade and the second or third time around the auction block they usually bring only "normal" money, instead of potential upgrade "premium". Lots of money being made by auction sites, grading services, and sticker services on these non-upgrade coins. I guess that's the new normal.
there is a coin in FUN that just sold in August that went from MS61 to MS64, I felt it was a 63 when I saw the coin and it sold for 63 money, interested to see what it goes for now.
You buy the coin for what it is.
I knew when I was bidding on the 1796 No Stars Quarter Eagle that is in my collection that it had been in an NGC MS-61 holder, sold by Heritage. When I bought it, it was in an NGC MS-62, sold by Stacks'. The Stacks' bidding increments are a little different, and higher, than the Heritage increments. Had it not been for that I would have paid the same price for the piece.
It was a few thousand more to me as a result, but how long do you wait for the "right coin" when it is the rarest U.S. type coin? I had seen five or six others when I was seriously in the market for one, and all of them were problem coins, despite the fact that they had straight grades.
The only ones generally noticed are those that upgraded. There are TONS that would go way down in a heartbeat, if they were cracked. Most OGH coins out there right now. They sell for far less than their advertised grade at these same auctions. Do not buy a coin without a green sticker if you are worried that it has gone past it's rightful grade.
Unless there is some mythical spread for the example cited in bold, who cares ?
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
25-D spread is $4000 to $8000
The real jump is to a 66 for $65000
Quite the incentive to resubmit.
Welcome back Stewart!
It is a double-edged sword - rely on the grade on the holder and you give the grading services "god" status. It also makes a beginner an instant expert.
Or learn to grade and and question the grade on the holder. This makes the market much more difficult to evaluate. It also makes the evaluation by a dealer or collector who is an expert much more valuable.
History has a way of shaking out the problems in a market. We went though a value inflation in the 1970s which brought about grade-pushing by disreputable dealers and led us to standardized grading. In the 1980s the bubble burst and only the real nice coins were sale-able, that is until certified grading took the expert opinion out of the dealer and collectors hand and put it in their experts hands.
Now, with easy access to sales information on similarly graded coins anyone and everyone knows exactly what a coin is worth, yet they don't really. It is really easy to sell an overgraded coin in a holder when you ask below market. Everyone loves a bargain. It is much more difficult to sell a really nice coin in that same holder for the money it truly deserves. It looks overpriced. You need to find an expert collector to make that deal work.
The TPG music will stop someday, many collectors won't be in a chair.
I doubt many here consider the Price Guide for 65+ Red to be the real world market. Please cite any documented sales at this level. The PCGS census shows one example, which likely hasn't traded ever, much less recently. Pie in the sky.
How would one even justify the $4K "trend" for a 65 Red, When 5 examples sold through HA in 2016, with the top hammer price for one of $3K (+17.5% BF) ?
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
I get the biggest chuckle when glancing at coinfacts seeing true-views of the same exact coin in multiple grades.
@coindeuce
We will maybe get the answer on Jan 4th. It is listed in the FUN auction.
Reserve has not been posted yet.
Coindeuce - Look at the 1925 d that sold on 9/11/16 in Long Beach and it the same coin that is for
Sale in January 2017 at FUN. You are not really that stupid ?
Don't post that it hasn' likely traded because it is pop 1 Pie in your face dude !
Ah Stewart, welcome back!
DUDE - are you short on reading comprehension ? I'm on your side. The September sale was for a 65 Red. So it got an uptick to 65+ Red. That doesn't make it automatically an $8K coin until someone pays that. OR are you able to foresee the future ? Maybe you should ask our host where the $8K number is derived from. Furthermore, there were at least 69 MS65 Red in the census before the 65+ Red was made. So it isn't so far fetched that a single example of those 69 had the odds of making an uptick to a 65+. I'm not defending the circumstance, and I understand where your sentiment comes from.
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
Sorry coindeuce ! It baffles me why a consignor would re consign a coin 3 months after he
Bought it in an auction.
PCGS needs to leave the value blank. Someone should tell Jaime or whoever that is responsible for values that there is no value until a coin sells public ally at auction.
Fantastic perspective. But to continue your evolution, nowadays you don't need an expert collector to make that deal work, you need yet another expert {read:bean} to continue keep the opinion out out of the dealer and collectors hand.
Almost anyone experienced in arbitrage (i.e. crackout dealers) would jump at the chance to make a quick windfall on something like this, with a pop. of one and only two finer. In this case, the September '16 HA buyer appears to either have had no competition, or a better eye than anyone else in the room, or it would have hammered much higher. Maybe it will fall flat in the market, and maybe it will bring out new Registry players who will drive it to an insane level. TDN put it succinctly above. Mo' money.
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.americanlegacycoins.com
This coin sold in an older blue label holder non CAC.
Looks like it was part of a collection that was sold where the coins didn't go to CAC first.
It sold on the lower end of recent prices ($2820).
Now fresh 65+ CAC, we will see how many bidders buy the holder not the coin.
It doesn't take much research to find the recent sale, but when a 66 is 10x, there probably is going to be someone that thinks they can't go wrong with the highest graded CAC coin.
Not my area of collecting, so no price guess from me.
When they first started, the "+" designation meant that the coin had to trade sight unseen on CCE. Many of the coins that I saw grade with a "+" looked as though the grader was compensating for a problem that might keep it from selling at market price, like a spot or fingerprint. I would explain this to people and they would wonder what I was talking about. Until I showed them a few "+" graded coins. Now they took away the sight-unseen requirement and it seems they are using the "+" as a half-way grade.
Looking at the 1925-D with the "+", I have to wonder.
IF you had an all there 65+ where it just missed the upgrade, it would be cheap at $8k with the other ends of the spectrum are $4k and $65k
As a collector that has studied this series, my take is that even if I can see the coin is solid for the grade, under graded, or just plain graded wrong or mis attributed, I may not step up because I don't want the hassle of finding another "expert" collector to sell it to to get out alive. I like to find an example that both I and the masses will appreciate.
Also, my play is that I believe my older holdered graded coins will be more sought after when the day comes to sell than putting them in the latest color of paper insert. Maybe I'll see the light someday and have the whole bunch put through a review before the big sale, but I'll never be suckered into doing that every time a new service is created or gradeflation is apparent.
The more I see you guys talking about the game and how many new moving parts it has, the more my wallet tightens up. Just saying I'm not here for the dealers to wail on. That, in my opinion hurts the hobby more than not enough YNs.
Tradedollarnut - I own a 66 red and I paid $4;000 for the coin in 1990. The other 66 red was
Bought for $ 65,000 by a very wealthy astute collector.
NFW would anyone pay $ 65,000 for a 66 red today. I think $ 30,000 would be a stretch.
I just don't get the drastic range in emotions here. I collect census condition US CW gold. Sometimes the coins are a good buy, sometimes it's a stretch. I also collect a much less lower condition US CW silver coinage. I also collect colonial medals. Who is to judge me for collecting census gold at stretched prices or well circulated coinage at low prices. Or judge me that colonial medals are pointless. This is just an example that all coins are collected by different people. Does someone really want to judge someone else poorly simply because they don't collect the same series'or grade.
US Civil War coinage
Historical Medals
I'd still pay $8k for a just missed it 64+
This 1798 quarter eagle in the link below sold for $129k in Jan 2016. It was bought as an NGC 62 in Jan 2013 for $76k and downgraded to a PCGS 61 with a CAC sticker. It's not within a year but it is certainly an interesting case of a consignor downgrading and getting much more money. Just an example that is somewhat against the grain of the thread.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/early-quarter-eagles/quarter-eagles/1798-2-1-2-wide-date-five-berries-bd-2-r5-ms61-pcgs-secure-cac/a/1231-5528.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
Always great to read your thoughts Stewart-
Collectors and even dealers may have different expectations as to what certain coins should look like at a lofty state of preservation. And those expectations in part are driven by personal experience in connection with the series, strike characteristics and surviving population by condition which leads to some analysis as to how a coin measures up to others.
The coin hopefully does not change-And in many instances that is wishful thinking as a coin can be enhanced. But the opinion of a coin can change and often does. We know this is true otherwise many high end coins would not be resubmitted until that moment happens when the grade is maximized. And at that point is when the real challenge arises... Is this coin at this grade all it should be and can it still be considered quality for the grade?
Coins will be graded and resubmitted in part because grading is subjective. And that subjective component will never change. And that subjectivity is something all collectors and dealers have whether they care to admit that or not. While I do not expect folks to agree to any of this, it does seem to offer an explanation as to how reasonable minds can differ.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I was once the underbidder on a 1925-S Buffalo nickel that was 63. I later saw it in a 64 holder and then a 64+ with a CAC sticker. In all fairness I thought it was PQ as a 63 so 64 wasn't surprise. But 64+ it was not.
I follow several key dates incl the one 95-O stewart mentioned. I have seen countless coins 16-d merc in 66, 16 SLQ, and 85 v's and many others get upgraded, then tossed back into auction, Its easy to track this with coin facts and auction history.
The spread between 61/62 gold is quite small and in many cases imperceptible. And changing an NGC MS62 (no-CAC) into a PCGS MS61 CAC is an "upgrade" imo. There's also the matter that the market stunk in Jan 2013 as the doldrums of 2009-2012 were just finishing playing out. Jan 2016 was a much stronger market than Jan 2013. I'd have expected the PCGS 61 CAC to realize considerably more in 2016 than the NGC 62 no-cac from Jan 2013. An NGC 62 going down to an NGC 61 CAC may not even be a "downgrade." CAC on early gold is a big plus as so many coins are screwed with.
Words of wisdom.
Too many collectors buy coins based on the PcGS price guide.
The PCGS price guide is a guess.
The PCGS price guide for the 1925 D Lincoln cent in Ms 65+ at $ 8,000'is a guess
The price guide for an 1895 o Barber dime in Ms 67 at $ 70,000 is a pathetic guess
Remember the same coin sold for $ 52,000 as an Ms 66 and $ 54,000 as an Ms 66+
If the coin was fresh and original and Ms 67 , I would easily pay north of $ 100,000 for the coin
Why PCGS upgraded this same coin to Ms 67 is pathetic
I 100% did LOL at the video, saw that 'Rockumentary' when it came out.
I've played guitar all my life, and have a few vintage amps to which I installed knobs that go to "11."
It's really a great fun time explaining to someone who did not see the movie.
My guests just don't understand why 11 is one more than 10!
DUH, It's ONE LOUDER.
"MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL"
roadrunner said:> The spread between 61/62 gold is quite small and in many cases imperceptible. And changing an NGC MS62 (no-CAC) into a PCGS MS61 CAC is an "upgrade" imo. There's also the matter that the market stunk in Jan 2013 as the doldrums of 2009-2012 were just finishing playing out. Jan 2016 was a much stronger market than Jan 2013. I'd have expected the PCGS 61 CAC to realize considerably more in 2016 than the NGC 62 no-cac from Jan 2013. An NGC 62 going down to an NGC 61 CAC may not even be a "downgrade." CAC on early gold is a big plus as so many coins are screwed with.>
I understand your perspective but it is still not often that you see someone downgrade a coin and then get much more money for it. In this particular case there were market factors.
I downgrade crossed a gem seated dollar and it recently sold for almost 25% more than I paid.
WHAT DO PCGS PRICES MEAN?
The prices listed in the PCGS Price Guide are average dealer asking prices for PCGS-graded coins. The prices are compiled from various sources including dealer ads in trade papers, dealer fixed price lists and website offerings, significant auctions, and activity at major coin shows. Dealer specialists and expert collectors provide pricing input. Remember that the prices are just a guide, a starting point for asserting value. Some PCGS coins sell for less than the prices listed and some PCGS coins sell for more than the prices listed.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
Yes . They think we are morons. As do most who control their market. They're usually right, too .
The person who likes a coin enough to try for an upgrade will, if it works, probably like it reasonably well at the next grade. So no, I don't think he's likely to consider the next buyer a "moron".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Many people play the numbers game, grade, price sheets, PCGS/NGC price guide, numismedia, etc. and are locked into the correspondence between the grade and price for that grade. When the spreads are large the temptations to play the crackout game is high. Worse would be the doctoring, upgrade game. On moderns when populations go up or collectors become fewer, prices drop leaving those who bought the sales gimmicks stuck. Still they are better off than the dot com stock people.
It sold for $7637.50 ($6500 hammer)
Perhaps the buyer saw PCGS' Price Guide value of $8000 and thought they got a deal?
I have inferred from this thread that none of the responding members live in Glass Houses. if you need me to explain that to you, just send me a PM.
I'm a collector. I don't buy much, and sell even less these days. I try to buy a coin which is solid for the grade. I avoid 'shot' coins, because I never get the upgrade, and eat the premium I paid for the coin.
Any coin I buy is viewed in person by someone I trust, knows more than I do, is well known and respected in "the business," and if I get a thumbs up on a particular coin, am given an acceptable price range for it.
I know how to grade the coins I consider buying reasonably well. If I don't agree with what's on the holder, I walk. Period. Ditto re pluses, stickers and the like. If I think a coin is low end for the grade, ditto. I don't care who likes it.
I really don't care what someone else will pay for a particular coin. If someone wants to pay more for a coin than I do, it's his / her coin. If there's nothing out there which interests me in numismatics, I can do other things with my money. I don't worry about it.
I've seen all there + and / or stickered coins where the seller is asking 3 or 4X what an all there coin would cost without the + and / or sticker. I walk away. Suggest others do likewise.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."