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How Much Confidence Does a CAC Sticker Give You When Bidding/Buying Sight Unseen?
msch1man
Posts: 809 ✭✭✭✭
I think most would agree that the best way to buy coins is in person where you can make your own "in hand" assessment or from a trusted dealer who's "eye" you've learned to trust. The reality is, many of us participate in online auctions or buy from dealers we're not familiar with and buy coins sight unseen. When doing so, how much confidence does a CAC sticker give you?
A couple days ago, I was looking at a dealer's website I've never purchased from that had, to put it nicely, terrible pictures. Once coin caught my eye and I'm guessing it would have turned out to be nice, but I just couldn't tell based on the picture, so I passed. But, I remember thinking, if it had a sticker, I'd feel more confident in it and probably would have bought it. Same thing happens at auctions. I don't have time to search every auction listing, so a lot of times I'll filter it down to just coins with CAC approval. I never made a conscious decision to put faith in the CAC sticker, it just seems to sort of happen. Am I crazy or do others do this too?
A couple days ago, I was looking at a dealer's website I've never purchased from that had, to put it nicely, terrible pictures. Once coin caught my eye and I'm guessing it would have turned out to be nice, but I just couldn't tell based on the picture, so I passed. But, I remember thinking, if it had a sticker, I'd feel more confident in it and probably would have bought it. Same thing happens at auctions. I don't have time to search every auction listing, so a lot of times I'll filter it down to just coins with CAC approval. I never made a conscious decision to put faith in the CAC sticker, it just seems to sort of happen. Am I crazy or do others do this too?
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The idea of TPG's was to be able to trade coins sight unseen. So if you accept that premise, a CAC sticker would give it a boost.
Anyway, CAC folk have different tastes than me.
Lance.
I make it to enough shows that it's been rare to order online and I have yet to buy on ebay. I do buy at auctions and with no return privilege,
I want a sticker and good photos.
I think that's one of the reasons CAC coin do so better at auctions
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I would want to see the coin. I have seen coins with cac stickers that I didn't care for at all, and some that didn't get them that I truly loved.
jim
Best, SH
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
My minor purchases I put a good amount of faith into cac but more for the coin doctoring aspect of it.
I only buy pcgs also after having problems with ngc.
My Type Set & My Complete Proof Nickel Set!
'dude
On MS63-MS65 gold coins it's probably a 95% sure thing with a sticker. They are very strict, especially on $20's. On choice and gem silver type coins I figure I agree with CAC about 80-85% of the time on toned coins. On dipped coins I tend to disagree with most everyone....lol. I'm surprised there's not even a single positive comment for CAC up to this point....yet their stickers seem to rule the market....interesting divergence.
You must have overlooked the end of my post; I am a supporter of the CAC idea, but do not support true sight-unseen transactions.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
You must have overlooked the end of my post; I am a supporter of the CAC idea, but do not support true sight-unseen transactions.
I also think the language was very confusing in the OP
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
no difference between a coin with one or without. you still need to see what you are buying... I would think if coins can turn in holders, coins with sticker can probably turn, too...
You must have overlooked the end of my post; I am a supporter of the CAC idea, but do not support true sight-unseen transactions.
I should have been more clear. There wasn't a single + comment..... about a CAC sticker adding significant value to a sight-unseen coin transaction. I find this to be quite a divergence from the actual market place. Interesting that so many coin collectors will send their favorite retailers (who can't grade to PCGS or JA levels) to bid at auction for them....but wouldn't even consider a CAC coin to be in that same league. I think I just stepped into a time warp....back to 1985. The idea of trying to get "something for nothing" (which we all do) is also at play here. That said, I wouldn't usually want to play a big premium for a stickered coin....would rather find one cheaper not yet stickered, though at some point in time that might be difficult to do for better 4 figure and up coins.
The consistent theme of dealer show reports is that there is nothing to buy on the bourse because the dealer cases are full of retreds and dreck that are not worth owning at any price or if there are nice coins they are excessively priced. So why would anyone feel happy buying anything “sight seen” at a show? Unless of course you are content paying a next grade up price for a coin that the dealer could not upgrade or a 40% mark-up over the highest price anyone was willing to pay for the same coin at auction.
Of course you could limit your buying to auctions that you have previewed in person, absorbing the considerable cost of time and money to travel to the auction preview; time and money that may not be available to you. And your bids won’t win anything you like anyway. Those coins will be bought at crack-out prices that will leave your bid in the dust.
And if you view a coin in hand, do you really understand what you are seeing and what you may be missing?
CG
What bothers me is, IMO, CAC tends to have more false-positives than false-negatives... that's why I'd be wary of buying sight-unseen. Usually it's pretty easy to figure out why CAC didn't certify a coin, but it can be difficult to understand why they did certify an "OK for the grade" coin.
Bottom line: No, CAC is not evil and out to get you. They're a business, and they've developed a smart business model to partner with auction houses to better influence your purchasing decisions.
I think most would agree that the best way to buy coins is in person where you can make your own "in hand" assessment or from a trusted dealer who's "eye" you've learned to trust. The reality is, many of us participate in online auctions or buy from dealers we're not familiar with and buy coins sight unseen. When doing so, how much confidence does a CAC sticker give you?
A couple days ago, I was looking at a dealer's website I've never purchased from that had, to put it nicely, terrible pictures. Once coin caught my eye and I'm guessing it would have turned out to be nice, but I just couldn't tell based on the picture, so I passed. But, I remember thinking, if it had a sticker, I'd feel more confident in it and probably would have bought it. Same thing happens at auctions. I don't have time to search every auction listing, so a lot of times I'll filter it down to just coins with CAC approval. I never made a conscious decision to put faith in the CAC sticker, it just seems to sort of happen. Am I crazy or do others do this too?
For clarification, are you thinking that a CAC sticker would indicate good eye appeal to compensate for the terrible photos?
The CAC sticker indicates solid for the grade and not necessarily good eye appeal.
As some posters have stated they would never buy in such a situation, then having a CAC sticker on a coin is irrelevant to your buying decision.
Latin American Collection
It helps, sure, but it's pretty clear there is no universal consensus about what is nice. In my primary series, it's clear to me that our hosts, the other big TPG, the sticker people, the market, and I all have a slightly different view of what is desirable.
This. I NEVER buy anything unseen. I see a coin, and someone I trust who knows more than I do must give me a thumbs up and a detailed description of why he likes a coin before I consider buying it. Or, I go on what said person I trust tells me if I can't see in person. These guys have are widely respected and have been in the business for many years. I rarely buy a bad coin this way.
In the series and grade I collect, imo, CAC is inconsistent in their standards of what constitutes a coin which is solid for the grade.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Now about 3 out of 10 CAC coins are dogs, and sell as such for dog money.
No different than today in the market there a lot of really nice TPG coins and some real dogs as well.
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In fact there are probably hundreds of coins that are cac'ed but dont fit into my collection because they dont have "the look" that I want.
This is not a knock on cac but an extra requirement for myself.
On the other hand, at yesterday's parsippany show a dealer showed me a particular coin in a pcgs ms64 holder that was heavily doctored and played with.
It had a spot removed, was cleaned, artificially toned, hidden scratches and just plain ugly.
Perhaps pictures could have made the coin look semi-ok, but buying it sight unseen would have been a nightmare.
Even the lowest CAC coins guarantees that almost all of the above problems would not be had
None...Have wondered how some got the sticker in the first place.
And let's face it boys…. CAC has assisted in cleaning up some of the _ _ _ _ that permeates our collective society. Cream rises to the top.
Edit to add : "scum" is a 4 letter word. In diesel technology , scum rises to the top, too.
It fuels an industry
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
None,
I would want to see the coin. I have seen coins with cac stickers that I didn't care for at all, and some that didn't get them that I truly loved.
jim
THIS!
Freddie
Check out my PQ selection of Morgan & Peace Dollars, and more at:
WWW.PQDOLLARS.COM or WWW.GILBERTCOINS.COM
Not enough to buy sight unseen.
+1
Tom
You must have overlooked the end of my post; I am a supporter of the CAC idea, but do not support true sight-unseen transactions.
I should have been more clear. There wasn't a single + comment..... about a CAC sticker adding significant value to a sight-unseen coin transaction. I find this to be quite a divergence from the actual market place. Interesting that so many coin collectors will send their favorite retailers (who can't grade to PCGS or JA levels) to bid at auction for them....but wouldn't even consider a CAC coin to be in that same league. I think I just stepped into a time warp....back to 1985. The idea of trying to get "something for nothing" (which we all do) is also at play here. That said, I wouldn't usually want to play a big premium for a stickered coin....would rather find one cheaper not yet stickered, though at some point in time that might be difficult to do for better 4 figure and up coins.
Old people are stubborn
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!
To use a crude example, if PCGS misgrades a coin 10 percent of the time, with 5 percent being overgraded and 5 percent being undergraded, then there is a 1 in 20 chance that the coin you buy may be overgraded. That's a lot. If we assume CAC to have the same percentage, then the dual confirmation results in 1 in 400 chance of being overgraded.
This may be a bit of a simplification but I find that simple math usually provides a valuable perspective.
Simple math doesn't apply here, even if it probably should. Any single top grader is accurate approx 75% of the time. Could be anywhere from 65-85%. With that logic, 3 graders at 75% accuracy (25% miss rate) should be able to earn an accuracy of 98.4% in an ideal world (.25 cubed is a .0156 miss rate). Clearly, this doesn't happen. If anything, 3 graders with 75% accuracy can at best grade at 75% accuracy day in and day out. It might even be less than that since I feel TPG's are accurate/repeatable 66-75% of the time. Math doesn't seem to apply in this world of 10-15 second grading events....at least not in gem type coins. Logic would dictate, that those people suggesting CAC has no influence in their buying decision, should also be stating that neither does the TPG's decision. In other words, it's really a raw coin market where only accurately slabbed coins get to play. I'm fine with a raw coin world. Been there, done that.
I would agree that the additional CAC opinion is a big plus in ruling out a clunker, especially in gold. Old people aren't always stubborn. Until someone shows up with a new grading paradigm, I'll stick with the one that is currently working or not working. A slab gets you an admission ticket to the ball park. Whether you win or lose the game depends on which of the 4 bases the slabbed coin lands on (high end, average, low end, next grade down or BB'd). Enjoy the game.
A CAC opinion is a little different than a TPG grading event. I believe they take more time and err more to the conservative side since they are putting a buying decision on the line. CAC is there to verifty non-clunkers, and that's different than assigning a grade from scratch. Most of us do the same thing when buying a slabbed coin. Either we like it in the holder or not. Easy decision. Now crack that out and offer it to a dozen top dealers. See how much variation you get as a raw coin. It's not so easy assigning a grade when there's no label to ball park it.
The fact remains that TPG graders and the best dealers, typically score 65-85% on grading exams. Yet why can't we get more than 75% typical accuracy from 2-3 graders and a finalizer? It's very hard for me to get the same grade 3 out of 4 times on any coin I've resubmitted. It's usually no better than 2 out of 3. Only once have I gone 3 for 3 on the same coin (all MS64's). The next owner dipped it, puttied it, then got the upgrade I couldn't. On unc seated coins I'm quite used to seeing the same coin graded differently on 2 or 3 submissions. That's teams of 3-4 graders doing that.
Logically, a 2nd expert opinion "should" increase the accuracy exponentially. In reality, it doesn't. And that's a topic for Colonel Jessup and another thread.
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no difference between a coin with one or without. you still need to see what you are buying... I would think if coins can turn in holders, coins with sticker can probably turn, too...
I'm still waiting for a company to come out and verify the sticker on the holder, after all, how do we ensure the sticker company stickered the graded coin correctly. Maybe there should be a range of about 10 approval ratings, how else can we ensure every coin is graded consistently.
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
I need to see the coin as this is critical in any buying decision.