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Saturation point?
Bankerbob56
Posts: 1,402 ✭✭✭
It seems that I am no longer willing to "pay up" for nice coins the way I used to. Even though I have adequate cash reserves, little to no debt, a great job, and a significant collection, I just find it harder to pull the trigger on new purchases. I just made an offer on a very nice Walker, a little over what the guides and auction results indicate to be a fair price, the seller countered $25 below his asking price (a 4 figure coin) and I simply declined his counter outright. No negotiating, no 2nd offer, I just declined without further ado. I find myself doing this more often these days. Not sure why, maybe I have hit my personal saturation point?
Anyone else ever go through this???
Anyone else ever go through this???
What we've got here is failure to communicate.....
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On the other hand- in your given situation, it could be that you felt the coin was overpriced to begin with, and a $25 discount was still too much.
Keep in mind, if the offer was made on ebay, it could be that the seller has 10% of fees he wants to cover. That is not going to help you buy coins on ebay
Maybe your tastes have changed?
You followed your gut - I don't see a reason to think you are saturated.
Maybe you did exactly the right thing.
"Non-buyers-reverse-remorse"?
Eric
Something just "feels" wrong about some of the prices.
I am seeing AUs go for what ...I... consider "stupid" money. Especially for common stuff like XF bust dimes and quarters.
Feels like the final milking is going on.
I've felt this way in the past but never to the point of really thinking it was anything more than a hiccup.
It seems to me that anyone supporting these "new" prices haven't been in the game long and will be very quick to bail if the direction reverses.
JMHO
<< <i>I agree with OP.
Something just "feels" wrong about some of the prices.
I am seeing AUs go for what ...I... consider "stupid" money. Especially for common stuff like XF bust dimes and quarters.
Feels like the final milking is going on.
I've felt this way in the past but never to the point of really thinking it was anything more than a hiccup.
It seems to me that anyone supporting these "new" prices haven't been in the game long and will be very quick to bail if the direction reverses.
JMHO >>
I sense about the same thing.
I don't think there's a lot of air in the market but much more loss in metals will let it all out.
In the sight unseen market, things are a bit different (from my vantage point)...
I actually think right now is a great buying opportunity if you are willing to put in the time, look for sellers (and auction houses) with decent photos, or really know the series you are buying. Prices are -- literally -- all over the place. Like 30%-50% variance in some issues.
I bought a coin about 6 months ago that I simply cannot replace today for even a 50% premium over what I paid (and I'm not even talking about a superb example). What happened?
There are several nice coins (many have already received CAC sticker) I've bought in the past 3-6 months that were being sold for far less than what sticker'd coins are selling for (sight unseen market) because I think there is such a premium in sight unseen market to CAC coins that non-CAC coins are being thrown out with the bathwater. People forget that non-CAC coins for the most part haven't been sent in to CAC instead of not being good enough for CAC.
So, I was going to sell off some of my collection to buy other things I was interested in collecting, I first sent the coins to CAC and got some of them stickered, and they sold for more than I could have imagined, and then as I went into the market to buy new ones I'm now interested in collecting, I found that the price difference for CAC vs. non-CAC was irrational and now I'm sticking to buying nice non-CAC coins at significant discounts, and then getting them CAC stickered myself as an "insurance policy"
All kidding aside, I think CAC disrupted the market in terms of pricing and it has become bifurcated...non-CAC coins are being devalued month over month, and CAC coins are becoming more sought-after month over month...
Just a point of view...
Doubt anyone will claim it's cyclical, but more likely tied to some other events. I'm thinking, (without knowing), that some of the uptick in the last few years may be tied to metals prices. If/when those start to falter, the 'collectors' who were really just interested in the precious metals may start to scramble, and things may change?
Many might view that as a bad thing.....But as a guy who buys and rarely sells, I wouldn't be too heart-broken.
<< <i>There are many people who look at coins that some years ago was selling for half the current rate and refuse to pay the new going prices. >>
I feel the same way every time I go to the gas station to fill up... But pushing the car back home in neutral is no fun
Heritage & found the PCGS guide was even a bit high. I really wanted the coin so I offered the PCGS Price Guide amount of $750 thinking it was very fair. Based on my research
it would be the highest price paid for this coin in this condition (with the exception of one anomaly I saw from about 7 or 8 years ago). Nope. Seller countered at $900. I then very
reluctantly offered $850. Nope. He stayed at $900 even with an offer that was substantially over realized prices. I just looked now and it's currently at $995, no longer
on "sale".
Now like the OP, if this was about 10 years ago I would've paid up out of shear desire for this beautiful coin. Believe me, I want it really badly now so I was willing to cave to a degree.
Today I'm not as willing to knowingly part with money as I used to be for an overpriced coin. I used to have no limits on my quest but now I do. So I let it go.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
As far as the comment about "not all coins have been to CAC" that is true, but it continues to get harder and harder to find those in the higher tier coins. You should continue to mine that vein, but it will continue to get harder. CAC has looked at how many coins now?
Any coin, worth more than $500, that I think even has a shot at CAC'ing, goes to CAC. I am not alone in this, and it is the new reality in the coin market. In five years, you will most regret selling your CAC coins and feel resentful about the coins you bought that did not CAC.
But hey, I am biased and have no problem with that.
It's like when a new sports car hits the dealer showrooms and the dealer adds $10K for "market adjustment". That screams douche bag, especially when you can wait
for the hype to be over and then the dealer is begging to sell it. Same thing.
<< <i>The CAC distinction is real. PCGS Price Guides, Grey Sheet and auction records for non CAC coins are meaningless. They vision of CAC has been realized, and for good reason. You have years and years and years of coins being processed and regraded. Those coins belong in holders, but the CAC coins represent (for the most part as nothing is perfect) coins that are properly graded and unprocessed. Those coins are more rare, and therefore they should cost more. People complain about my prices all the time, but I cannot sell coins for less than I can replace them for. I have had to wait a long time to purchase some of the coins I have so what good does it do to sell the coin based on PCGS price guide or Grey Sheet when they do not factor in the CAC value-add, and I cannot buy them for that?
As far as the comment about "not all coins have been to CAC" that is true, but it continues to get harder and harder to find those in the higher tier coins. You should continue to mine that vein, but it will continue to get harder. CAC has looked at how many coins now?
Any coin, worth more than $500, that I think even has a shot at CAC'ing, goes to CAC. I am not alone in this, and it is the new reality in the coin market. In five years, you will most regret selling your CAC coins and feel resentful about the coins you bought that did not CAC.
But hey, I am biased and have no problem with that. >>
A highly perceptive multi-tiered analysis.
I've known JA for 30+ years and
I think he'd lose respect for me if I said otherwise that than my bias is towards my wallet.
The CAC trading concept penalizes the least those who don't know, and offers greater potential for rewards to those who do.
To the OP - more than a couple of members have taken extended vacations from coins. MidLifeCrisis maybe?
Don't over-analyze the reasons. Saturation, lack of enthusiasm, mental or passion burnout, ass-hole hagglers, all or some of the above, or any others. . . . It's not fun right now.
Why not treat yourself to a break? . . . .
CG
I often shake my head as what collectors are willing to pay for a coin. Particularly some of the modern stuff.
<< <i>In five years, you will most regret selling your CAC coins and feel resentful about the coins you bought that did not CAC. >>
If only one man, no matter how capable, is unique in the ability to sanction our coins, we are doomed.
The high tide is lifting too many common boats and that is why your gut instinct is talking to you.
I try to collect for fun. I don't know am I having fun?
I countered with $5 off my asking price which would indicate that I was willing to bargain yet not by the amount the potential buyer thought I might.
He then countered with his original offer to which I simply declined.
Declining an offer shuts the door.
The name is LEE!
<< <i>Dealers scarfing up the nicest coins and then offering them to hapless drooling coin junkies at very high mark-ups is nothing new. When you see people here posting their monster coins most have paid top dollar and then some for them. Happens at auction too. See the thread about the toned up Frankie bid at $25K at the Goldbergs. If paying the big mark-up makes you feel like a sucker, your alternative is to pay market for a generic looking coin and feeling a lot of indifference towards it. Neither is fun.CG >>
No, you don't have to buy anything if you don't think anything nice is out there for what you think is a reasonable price. I have made the decision not to buy any of the most expensive Liberty Nickels in the grade I seek because many new coins have been made, some stickered, and I haven't liked any I have seen.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Adding to the frustration, I found a very nice 66+ coin including a CAC sticker
Oh well!
The hibernation continues!
Successful BST xactions w/PCcoins, Drunner, Manofcoins, Rampage, docg, Poppee, RobKool, and MichealDixon.
<< <i>I agree with OP.
Something just "feels" wrong about some of the prices.
I am seeing AUs go for what ...I... consider "stupid" money. Especially for common stuff like XF bust dimes and quarters.
Feels like the final milking is going on.
JMHO >>
XF bust dimes and quarters are common?
As for the original question. Yes. Once I have the hole in the album filled, I am not as interested in obtaining a duplicate for a higher cost, if at all. I become the main negotiator in this case. If I still need the coin, then it becomes more of a priority to get, so I will pay more. But in most cases, I will still wait for the right coin to come along at the right cost, like I always have.
Bob
<< <i>The thrill is gone.
Sorta agree. When I see something nice that would fit in my area, I don't have that URGE TO HAVE it that I used to have. Frankly, when I decided to thin the herd, I was almost more OCD about selling than I was about buying.
<< <i>
<< <i>The thrill is gone.
Sorta agree. When I see something nice that would fit in my area, I don't have that URGE TO HAVE it that I used to have. Frankly, when I decided to thin the herd, I was almost more OCD about selling than I was about buying. >>
I was speaking for the OP.
the notion that in a few years all the nice coins which are worthy of collecting will be in a CAC approved holder is frightening, a speculation I hope is overblown.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The thrill is gone.
Sorta agree. When I see something nice that would fit in my area, I don't have that URGE TO HAVE it that I used to have. Frankly, when I decided to thin the herd, I was almost more OCD about selling than I was about buying. >>
I was speaking for the OP.
I know, but it fit me too!
PCGS had an opportunity to disrupt the paradigm and innovate but they surrendered (so far) to basically technically grade and has essentially allowed CAC to market rank (e.g, which is A coin, B, coin, etc.). PCGS can start offering an A-F designation on their grades and watch how quickly people forget CAC. But then telling someone that, "I just graded this coin an MS65 but this is D coin" seems to be a struggle for PCGS...as they fear the buyer would hen say, "them why grade it an MS65?"
Nothing in business is without risk...but also paradigm shifts have happened when companies take risk. So far PCGS has chosen not to take the risk and allow CAC to market rank their coins.
that is sort of the CAC niche, they give every previously graded coin a (+) or (-) and send it out value-added.
After reading this, I guess it's time to send all of my coins that don't have CAC stickers to the smelter.
Sorry, folks, but one man should not have that much power. No body is perfect.
But yes, the higher prices are disconcerting. And the differences between what dealers are willing to pay and their selling prices do not bode well for the future. The gap is largest I have seen in some time.
<< <i>I no longer have the "need" to own. >>
Same here.....I'd like to get a Wreath cent some day, but with even the common variety worn out, corroded examples commanding >$2500,
it's not worth it to me. I could easily afford one, but they are by no means rare or even scarce.
<< <i>
<< <i>I no longer have the "need" to own. >>
Same here.....I'd like to get a Wreath cent some day, but with even the common variety worn out, corroded examples commanding >$2500,
it's not worth it to me. I could easily afford one, but they are by no means rare or even scarce. >>
The last fairly nice Wreath cent I saw was in an old PCGS EF-40 holder. The guy wanted $30,000 for it. The obverse looked great, but when I really looked at the reverse I saw black, bubbly looking corrosion, which may or may not have been there when the coin was certified. Even some of the "silk stocking" coins are suspect.
But yes, I agree with you. The prices for old, problem coins are outrageous.
<< <i>I reached the point where I was no longer willing to pay retail some time ago. That goes for all collectibles, not just coins. I no longer have the "need" to own. >>
I have never "needed" to own anything.
I would rather pay significantly above retail for exceptional coins and as a result buy fewer coins than try and fit my purchasing decisions into the context of pricing tiers such as "retail" and "wholesale". This purchasing strategy only works for widgets.
Latin American Collection
<< <i>Same here.....I'd like to get a Wreath cent some day, but with even the common variety worn out, corroded examples commanding >$2500,
it's not worth it to me. I could easily afford one, but they are by no means rare or even scarce. >>
On the same but different point, I'm simply amazed at how much "widget" coins are selling for. Look on eBay or any auction house and see just how many 1955 DDO, 1877 IHC, 1937-D 3 Legs, type of coins there are thousands in the aggregate, and that's just eBay.
Now look at some coins that the total Pop at PCGS or NGC is <100, truly scarce if not rare coins that come up for sale once every blue moon that don't sell for nearly as much...
It has been this way for as long as I can remember, by and large (maybe a few exceptions) so I don't see how/why it will somehow reverse.
I guess it could be frustrating at times, but it is what it is...
As for "undiscovered rarities" mostly the specialists follow them, and in order to get the high prices you have to attract two or more specialists to bid against one another.
<< <i>RickO, do you see it as bad-good-or a combination of both?? I think it serves a small slice of the Hobby in a very positive way but overall isn't good due to the price increase attendant with the sticker. >>
Have you considered that prices are actually normalising to more appropriate levels as "A" coins are more easily differentiated from "C" coins? Isn't the ability to consistently do so a key barrier to rare coins being more accepted as an alternative investment? The fact that prices are rising is a good thing as better coins should sell for more.
Latin American Collection
https://acoinshop.com/ —-> https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>
<< <i>RickO, do you see it as bad-good-or a combination of both?? I think it serves a small slice of the Hobby in a very positive way but overall isn't good due to the price increase attendant with the sticker. >>
Have you considered that prices are actually normalising to more appropriate levels as "A" coins are more easily differentiated from "C" coins? Isn't the ability to consistently do so a key barrier to rare coins being more accepted as an alternative investment? The fact that prices are rising is a good thing as better coins should sell for more. >>
A sticker doesn't guarantee that you are getting an 'A' coin. There is a quasi-random subjective line that
determines whether the sticker is applied in any given case. How do you know a coin wasn't rejected the
first nine times it was sent in and got stickered on the tenth? Answer: you don't.
The market is one thing "collecting" has riches all it's own far more than what the coin is worth. I wish I had my ANACS BLACK AND WHITE PHOTO 1909 S VDB in EF 45 with my name proudly displayed across the photo cert.. Probably bring more than any coin in plastic. Just becaue of the original certification.
Amen.
about the only thing I can discern for certain about a CAC sticker is that it means a coin will cost more. I know the thought has probably been put out there already, but when will some well respected individual come forward with a service that reviews CAC coins??
I personally think it is overblown hype. I know I have many coins that would sticker and none will EVER be sent to CAC.
I don't need CAC to buy or sell. I know what I like and when selling the buyers will know what they like.
While I am on this rant I have to say the prices here on CU are too high. Believe me I get great coins from Retail Sellers with a big over head and huge presence on the coin circuit at UBER RETAIL and the coins are fabulous and they don't touch the listed numbers on CU. So, I am not saturated, but prices have peaked. This is no prediction of the future coin market I can and I have been wrong..........and in that case well....nevermind.