Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices?

Coinbot · June 28, 2012 1:19PM

Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down?

Goldbully · June 28, 2012 1:21PM

Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread!

mkman123 · June 28, 2012 1:22PM

no, any hunch on who will win the super bowl?

2ltdjorn · June 28, 2012 1:22PM

I may subscribe to this thread

lasvegasteddy · June 28, 2012 1:26PM

i won't sell
but let the buying begin

what do you have at 50% i may be buying before the crash depending what you have???

hchcoin · June 28, 2012 1:34PM

<< i won't sell
but let the buying begin

what do you have at 50% i may be buying before the crash depending what you have??? >>

Great post Teddy!

Unknown · June 28, 2012 1:42PM

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LanceNewmanOCC · June 28, 2012 1:44PM

.
Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices?

not even a little
.

bidask · June 28, 2012 1:56PM

<< Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>

I definitely think its possible.....the key word in your post is supply.....

BryceM · June 28, 2012 2:01PM

Not likely, but if it happened it would be fantastic! In a couple of decades when I'm ready to cash in I'll probably feel differently.

BillyKingsley · June 28, 2012 2:03PM

That would be a good thing for true collectors, bad for those who just want to make a profit and don't really care about the history.

I don't see it happening, but it would be nice.

Justacommeman · June 28, 2012 2:14PM

Finding great coins is already tough enough. Supply is actually very low. I think prices would have to go up substantially for any of this supply to come to market. Over graded low eye appeal coins I think could keep going down. There seems to be huge supply here

MJ

Coinbot · June 28, 2012 2:17PM

In the last 10 years many coins have risen about 100% or doubled in value. Could they not go right back down?

keyman64 · June 28, 2012 2:18PM

Hopefully everything crashes before the show I am going to on Saturday!

Unknown · June 28, 2012 2:22PM

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bosco5041 · June 28, 2012 2:28PM

Maybe now I can get a nice draped bust dollar for a grand. I missed them on thier way up.

RYK · June 28, 2012 2:30PM

Let the markdown begin!

bosco5041 · June 28, 2012 2:31PM

By the way, when someone has a hunch about something it was brought on by something in thier thought process. What gave you that hunch? Just wondering.

cupronik · June 28, 2012 2:44PM

Seems to me MS-65 WL 50c are already cheaper today than they have been in a long time. Many mint state coins from 1934-64 cost less today than they did in the 1980's or 1990's. Silver commemoratives are already cheap. I personally don't see a crash to the magnitude of 50% in high grade coins. Circ coins listed in the CDN quarterlies are just beginning to be collected in certified grades and those listed prices don't reflect the real market as many of these bring significantly more.

RYK · June 28, 2012 2:50PM

My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I do not see an across the board major crash in coin prices in the near future. Even though the value of my holdings would drop, I would welcome the decline and view it as an opportunity to buy some coins that have left me in the dust.

COALPORTER · June 28, 2012 2:55PM

No. IMO, hard assests are the things to hold right now, as we may see
mega- inflation like never before. There is a move to try to inflate our way
out of the current government debt level and these may leave paper
assets worth allot less

Justacommeman · June 28, 2012 2:55PM

<< My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I do not see an across the board major crash in coin prices in the near future. Even though the value of my holdings would drop, I would welcome the decline and view it as an opportunity to buy some coins that have left me in the dust. >>

This. MJ

COALPORTER · June 28, 2012 2:55PM

<< no, any hunch on who will win the super bowl? >>

49ers !!!!!!!!!!

Coinbot · June 28, 2012 3:35PM

It seems like having an idea about where the market may go is pretty important. If I want to buy a nice early dollar (and I really do) then if I expect the market to decline I should wait and be patient and Rise should buy it now. Many people are bullish on things just because they own them.

What does the heritage buyers fee (which is really a sellers fee) increase to 17.5% tell us about the "demand" for selling coins? They would not be raising the fee if they were having trouble finding consignors would they?

WestySteve · June 28, 2012 3:37PM

<< Seems to me MS-65 WL 50c are already cheaper today than they have been in a long time. Many mint state coins from 1934-64 cost less today than they did in the 1980's or 1990's. Silver commemoratives are already cheap. I personally don't see a crash to the magnitude of 50% in high grade coins. Circ coins listed in the CDN quarterlies are just beginning to be collected in certified grades and those listed prices don't reflect the real market as many of these bring significantly more. >>

I can't see a big crash, but it seems that coins are going through a sort of stratification, where prices on the more common stuff is coming back down but the stuff that's hard to get is still difficult. Unless you collect the very best, problem-free coins in their original skin, you could see softening.

jokingjoker · June 28, 2012 4:16PM

<< Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>

That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. As to the OP's question, is there a certain series in particular your asking about? You say "most coins", I think it would be impossible to predict such a broad question.

Goldbully · June 28, 2012 4:26PM

<< 

<< Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>

That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. As to the OP's question, is there a certain series in particular your asking about? You say "most coins", I think it would be impossible to predict such a broad question. >>

Love your avatar.....please stay and post some more stuff.....OK?

Justlooking · June 28, 2012 5:02PM

If the Euro crashes, the dollar will gain strength, so the stock market, gold, silver and oil will pull back. I can see a short-term buying opportunity. But once everything settles down and inflation kicks in, everything will go back up. If the economy starts to slip further, more quantitative easing could send the dollar tumbling, which will translate to a higher stock market and higher commodity prices.

Buy low, sell high.

291fifth · June 28, 2012 7:08PM

The coin market is becoming much more selective. Rare US coins won't crash.

Dreck and false rarities (and this includes many issues that have been heavily hoarded over the past 30 years) ... watch out. Eventually the hoarders will die and the heirs will want to cash out as quickly as possible. Most of the local hoarders I know of are quite old already.

LochNESS · June 28, 2012 7:16PM

<< The coin market is becoming much more selective. Rare US coins won't crash.

Dreck and false rarities (and this includes many issues that have been heavily hoarded over the past 30 years) ... watch out. Eventually the hoarders will die and the heirs will want to cash out as quickly as possible. Most of the local hoarders I know of are quite old already. >>

Is "false rarities" another term for "oddball rarities" ??? I have never really understood that term. If a coin has a low mintage (under 5,000 pieces) and is high grade (PR65 or MS65 or higher) then the only factor left is demand, right? So are you suggesting that certain coins will never have any demand? making them false rarities?

Please explain greatly appreciated thanks

PerryHall · June 28, 2012 7:48PM

I've lived through a few major market corrections (1980 and 1989 were the biggest) so it's entirely possible. Time will tell if your concerns are warranted.

PerryHall · June 28, 2012 7:53PM

<< 

<< Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>

That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. >>

I wouldn't worry about it. The new members will quickly learn who the jerks are and learn to ignore them.

291fifth · June 28, 2012 8:20PM

<< 

<< The coin market is becoming much more selective. Rare US coins won't crash.

Dreck and false rarities (and this includes many issues that have been heavily hoarded over the past 30 years) ... watch out. Eventually the hoarders will die and the heirs will want to cash out as quickly as possible. Most of the local hoarders I know of are quite old already. >>

Is "false rarities" another term for "oddball rarities" ??? I have never really understood that term. If a coin has a low mintage (under 5,000 pieces) and is high grade (PR65 or MS65 or higher) then the only factor left is demand, right? So are you suggesting that certain coins will never have any demand? making them false rarities?

Please explain greatly appreciated thanks >>

Very few US coins are actually rare. Popular, yes, rare, no. Hoarding of so-called key and semi-key dates and even high grade common dates of things like Seated and Barber coinage has been going on for years but seems to have really picked up in the 1980's and continued to the present. The collector population is aging. The hoarder population is aging. I have suspected for quite some time that the quantity of hoarded "rare" coins is much larger than most realize. Will there be enough collectors in the future to absorb the hoards once they hit the market?

lcoopie · June 28, 2012 8:39PM

I have a hunch prices will go up

DHeath · June 28, 2012 9:16PM

The real threat to U.S. coin values is the demographic of the collector base. The brilliance of David Hall was to recognize the need to turn coins into fungible assets suitable for sight-unseen exchange coincident with the rise in popularity of the Internet. As the population of US collectors dies off, the investor market will survive to the extent that coins can be seen as tangible investments. The interesting thing will be to understand the valuation minus a robust collector base.

However, it is always worth remembering that coin values DO occasionally correct, particularly when investors overwhelm collectors in the market.

JJM · June 28, 2012 9:43PM

gold is up $25 already today and the US market isnt even open yet.....
shoulda bought a widget yesterday...........

BAJJERFAN · June 28, 2012 9:54PM

<< My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I do not see an across the board major crash in coin prices in the near future. Even though the value of my holdings would drop, I would welcome the decline and view it as an opportunity to buy some coins that have left me in the dust. >>

Not all coin prices will crash to the same degree. Sell yer wijjetz and buy em back later at half price or less.

TwoSides2aCoin · June 28, 2012 10:09PM

If this was asked when silver was near $50 and gold was over $1900, I would say "yes". I'd expect a crash.
But a year later with silver at $27 and gold at $1500, I'd say "no".
I'm not sure what a "correction" is, actually.

yellowkid · June 28, 2012 10:17PM

<< .
Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices?

not even a little
. >>

CommemDude · June 28, 2012 11:04PM

I would have said the coin market is strong but suddenly I am seeing the best commem sets either sold or retired from the registry, making me wonder if the colored coin bubble is about to burst?

golden · June 28, 2012 11:05PM

<< Finding great coins is already tough enough. Supply is actually very low. I think prices would have to go up substantially for any of this supply to come to market. Over graded low eye appeal coins I think could keep going down. There seems to be huge supply here

MJ >>

erickso1 · June 28, 2012 11:23PM

<< I would have said the coin market is strong but suddenly I am seeing the best commem sets either sold or retired from the registry, making me wonder if the colored coin bubble is about to burst? >>

I hope the colored coin market bursts. (eyeing commemdudes avatar)

Just kidding! (secretly eyeing the avatar)

Honestly though, if the colored coin bubble bursts, and prices fall, and a shift is made to white coins, I would imagine the population of attractivlely toned coins in my series would fall as they are cracked, dipped and reholdered, thus lowering the population of original toned coins. Which is fine by me.

My views may be unrealistic, short sighted and purely hypothetical, but as others have mentioned, I'd welcome a crash/drop in prices.

ambro51 · June 29, 2012 12:03AM

YA KNOW.....thread titles like this remind me of how shorts try and kill stock on the Yahoo Finance forums. hmmm. Welcome aboard Coinbot you will find amazingly astute and perceptive members here. Let me say one thing about all the coin collectors dying off and the hobby evaporating. BULL %#]+. All those rare coins you hold NOW were once held be living collectors who later became dead. Now YOU are living and holding those coins waiting till YOU die and then someone else will repeat the process.

Cakes · June 29, 2012 12:16AM

<< 

<< 

<< Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>

That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. As to the OP's question, is there a certain series in particular your asking about? You say "most coins", I think it would be impossible to predict such a broad question. >>

Love your avatar.....please stay and post some more stuff.....OK?

>>

GB or Joker what is that coin in Joker's avatar? that's a pretty bad ass design.

joebb21 · June 29, 2012 12:29AM

To answer your question the answer is both yes and no.

Many coins have lost over 50% of their trading value in the last 2 years- while others have gained over 50% in the last 2 years.
Check out the value of many St's in higher grades. Its amazing how much they have fallen.

Next look at CC $20 gold and see how much they've gone up in the last 2 years.

What really is happening is the market is demanding quality pieces.

PQ coins are going to bring strong money while non PQ wont.

As an example; yesterday at the Baltimore show I sold some exceptionally high end proof barber quarters for many % over sheet.
A very ugly looking one I sold for almost 30% back of sheet

TwoSides2aCoin · June 29, 2012 12:32AM

My nephew listed an 1878 Indian Head Cent on eBay. With auctions like that, the bottom is guaranteed.

djm · June 29, 2012 12:47AM

The Bear has started to stir. The prices of common date morgan dollars are dropping. The gold bugs are hanging on to the possible QE3 to keep gold prices up even thjough they are finding more gold than is being consumed. Now is not the time to be buying or selling. Sellers have missed the top. Buyers can wait for the prices to soften even more.

rhedden · June 29, 2012 12:50AM

We've been having threads like this since 2003 when I joined the forum. The sky was not falling then, and it still isn't.

The only thing that could cause this kind of catastrophe in rare coins would be if some sort of draconian tax laws were passed that devastated the rare coin trade and put dealers out of business. If you think that's possible, then you have reason to worry.

pocketpiececommems · June 29, 2012 12:55AM

Expect a crash in prices for most any coins you by from the "Shop at Home" programs the day after you buy them.

Goldbully · June 29, 2012 1:00AM

<< 

<< 

<< Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>

That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. >>

I wouldn't worry about it. The new members will quickly learn who the jerks are and learn to ignore them. >>

Maybe I should title my avatar, "Jerk."

shorecoll · June 29, 2012 1:50AM

You say "all coins", then comment on a nice bust dollar. Comments in the thread indicate that many low-end coins that people have been buying for the past # of years have already fallen by maybe 50% or even more...nice bust dollars aren't in that category. I bought a bunch of nice bust dollars in the 80's when they were $1,000 each, but I had to sell them...now I'd have to sell my house to replace half of them.

Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices?

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