The results of the November elections could have an impact on the market.
If tax and spend advocates who wish to tax “millionaires and billionaires” starting with working couples making $250K a year win big and start using tax revenues to reduce the deficit and/or pay for national infrastructure or alternative energy projects, then it will take some money out of the coin market as the folks at the lower end of that higher tax bracket feel the tax hit. I would guess that coins in the $500 to $5,000 range would be the ones primarily impacted. Inexpensive coins, such as new Mint issues, may continue to sell with little effect as new jobs are created or as the taxed folks lower their pricing points. The folks with more money than they can spend in a lifetime and who buy tropical islands will still be able to buy whatever they want at virtually any price.
On the other hand, if irresponsible, jingoistic people come back into power, then there are a host of scenarios, all of them bad, that could impact the market at all levels. Further tax cuts coupled with spending cuts could help tank the economy again. Our country could find itself spending huge amounts of money on defense programs that the Pentagon does not want, and on foreign military adventures without a source of funding. Money from all over the world that is presently seeking shelter in US Treasuries, keeping interest rates at extremely low levels, could seek shelter elsewhere, resulting in higher debt costs for the US, tight credit for consumers and business, and a dramatic increase in the price of gold which may be the alternative to the dollars as a source of safety. Unless of course the Euro collapses too, in which case all bets are off since at some price gold will no longer seem like a safe haven. I do not see the US middle class flocking to coins under those circumstances. Instead, we could see a lot less carefree spending on coins at virtually all levels.
Or we can continue to have governmental gridlock, in which case things will sputter along, with the high end of the market doing OK and with weakness in the low and middle sectors.
Please send me a list of all the coins you own which you feel are vulnerable along with prices for them.
Like 12 MCMVII $20's in MS65 at 40K per. They are common and popular. Just the sort of crap that, according to {some} people's theories, should be in line for a dip. Er.... market drop. (Not a doctoring thread)
Don't be a
Many good points were made in this thread, but consider please that all generalizations are bad
It's coming. You know it. Act now. Puhleeeze.
Sure I'm busting chops. But how many prognosticators wiill back up their opinion with action. Otherwise it's
All transactions in confidence. Good funds up to $500K daily. Starts next Monday due to the erratic, arbitrary and capricious behavior of banks in the best of times.
Good funds
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
<< <i>The stickering craze is about the only thing other than bullion prices that have kept better coin prices afloat over the past 2 years.
But these too appear to be reaching their shelf life. That is, a stickered coin on average shouldn't be priced at more than say 2X more than one that is not stickered. We're already at that point in many cases. It may be a far better value to buy an unstickered coin at a 50% discount to stickered, especially if said coin is not unattractive or problematic, other than it never fully deserved the "technical" grade it once received. A market can't be healthy when all of a sudden 40% or more of slabbed coins have become "losers" because they won't sticker. And even if they do sticker, half of them will bring 20-30% less because they are in the wrong holders. Coins have always been graded or valued on a continuum. The coins today are no different than they were 10 or 20 yrs ago, only the labels on their holders. But it seems the labels and stickers are now the driving force, not the coins. It's now a market that I am no longer familiar with. It has some similarities to the rating agencies out there that state this investment is AAA and this other one is only bbb. In many cases the two items can be identical when all packaging and ratings are removed. You could see this shift coming over 5 years ago....just never thought it would get to this extreme. More than likely, we haven't seen the ultimate extremes. You can't have a true bull market in this type of environment. But it does remind me of 1990-1993 when the definition of "investment" grade coin was largely reworked to exclude more than 50% of the coins that fueled the 1987-1990 bull market. Another weeding out is occurring because once again there are just too many coins. They all can't be "investment" or "fussy-collector" grade. I understand the process, just not the way it has occurred (ie truly good/comparable coins being tossed aside because they are not holdered or stickered properly). >>
The above says everything one needs to know about the subject. Imo, with all of the serious money that has entered numismatics in the last ten years or so, along with the inevitable marketing which has accompanied it, anyone who buys the proverbial coin, without regard for the holder and its acutrements, does so at his own peril. Caveat Emptor.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
Hot money came in and now it is sitting nervously on a pile of coins it knows nothing about. This money is "cooling" and will leave just as fast.
Show reports are bad (read between lines of "bullish" dealer and price guide reports as they all have a vested interest in a stronger market).
Look at the pcgs 3000 index and cdn graph books (if you have them). The big increase in price over the last 10 years is your "risk"
Heritage is raising the "buyer fee" from 15 to 17.5%. Since we all know this is a sellers fee it tells you that demand to SELL coins is up. You don't raise a fee like that if there is a dearth of consignor
Stocks will go up simply because they are under owned or due to qe. Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
These are just my thoughts and observations. I am no expert on coins but i am an expert on markets.
<< <i>Hot money came in and now it is sitting nervously on a pile of coins it knows nothing about. This money is "cooling" and will leave just as fast.
Show reports are bad (read between lines of "bullish" dealer and price guide reports as they all have a vested interest in a stronger market).
Look at the pcgs 3000 index and cdn graph books (if you have them). The big increase in price over the last 10 years is your "risk"
Heritage is raising the "buyer fee" from 15 to 17.5%. Since we all know this is a sellers fee it tells you that demand to SELL coins is up. You don't raise a fee like that if there is a dearth of consignor
Stocks will go up simply because they are under owned or due to qe. Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
These are just my thoughts and observations. I am no expert on coins but i am an expert on markets. >>
Try to get a copy of Maurice Rosen's Numismatic Advisory newsletter. I received it today. It brings up a lot a few of the points you made and a few others that are more tangible. He also states that the coin market is a coiled spring waiting for a spark.
As for your last sentence------ there are a lot of known experts on the markets participating in this thread.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Try to get a copy of Maurice Rosen's Numismatic Advisory newsletter. I received it today. It brings up a lot a few of the points you made and a few others that are more tangible. He also states that the coin market is a coiled spring waiting for a spark.
As for your last sentence------ there are a lot of known experts on the markets participating in this thread.
<< <i>Text >>
Text
Thanks MJ, I will get a copy as you advise, and I can tell there are many wise posters here (yourself amoung them) which is why I enjoy this board so much. Hey if coins do in fact go up (possible with what I think may be a final climax move higher in gold) then great (I own plenty of coins) and if they go down, well then let the collecting switch into 5th gear.
PS, Please PM me if you would like to sell your edition of that newsletter after you finish with it.
I am paying way above published values for the right coins. I know others are too. I see no weakness in the market when paper money will soon be worth less.
<< <i>Hot money came in and now it is sitting nervously on a pile of coins it knows nothing about. This money is "cooling" and will leave just as fast.
Show reports are bad (read between lines of "bullish" dealer and price guide reports as they all have a vested interest in a stronger market).
Look at the pcgs 3000 index and cdn graph books (if you have them). The big increase in price over the last 10 years is your "risk"
Heritage is raising the "buyer fee" from 15 to 17.5%. Since we all know this is a sellers fee it tells you that demand to SELL coins is up. You don't raise a fee like that if there is a dearth of consignor
Stocks will go up simply because they are under owned or due to qe. Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
These are just my thoughts and observations. I am no expert on coins but i am an expert on markets. >>
So are you buying stocks or great coins?
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Whether this thread was started with bad trollish intentions or not (I don't believe it was); I have truly enjoyed reading it. Coins as an investment vehicle is one of my favorite subjects and I find it to be VERY interesting.
I agree that PQ, better date, scarce issues will only improve and continue to rise in price. I feel from an economic standpoint that the coin market is indeed cyclical BUT it is healthy and has continued on a MOSTLY upward trend for the last 55-60 years and I expect it to continue. There are troughs and peaks but GENERALLY prices have risen.
In 2005, prices for better date Walkers were STRONG and they have softened just a bit since then. I DO believe that in the next 15-20 years prices will only climb for these coins as they are sooo scarce.
I don't believe that we will find any 'magical hoard' of the really scarce stuff, either. If such a thing existed, it would surely have surfaced by now. Believing in finding these hoards has been rumored since the 1960s-70s and it was always fantasy and nothing more. The rare, scarce stuff will only become scarcer and MORE in demand.
The only way that I see a serious falter in the US coin market is if the U.S. experiences a complete economic collapse. In that case, coins and pretty much everything else will be the least of our concerns, as we will be burning currency to keep warm and simply trying to survive.
As far as collectors dying and new generations showing no interest---I don't see this happening. Coins have been popular for 100s of years and they will be popular in another 100. Even if coins became obsolete, they will always be admired and collected as historical works of art. Just my opinion.
And YES! I feel that they are MUCH safer than the stock market because you will never LOSE money----I haven't and I've been at this for quite some time.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
Actually, for the great coins this is patently the opposite of the truth. My bank did a study before they granted me my coin based line of credit and the results showed that the ultra rarities actually outperformed the stock market over decades.
If you think about it, it makes sense. The odds are that more than a few wealthy coin collectors will outperform the market [I know that right now, for the past 4 years I am] and set the market in the coin arena.
<< <i>Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
Actually, for the great coins this is patently the opposite of the truth. My bank did a study before they granted me my coin based line of credit and the results showed that the ultra rarities actually outperformed the stock market over decades.
If you think about it, it makes sense. The odds are that more than a few wealthy coin collectors will outperform the market [I know that right now, for the past 4 years I am] and set the market in the coin arena. >>
TDN--QDB mentions a very similar study in his book about collecting and investing strategies.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
Just to clarify, I am talking about the coin market as a whole. The pcgs 3000 may be a good proxy (I am sure those with more knowledge will chime in about any problems with that index) Just like individual stocks some coins will deviate from the averages. But in general a rising tide lifts all ships as they say. Since most of us collect a variety of coins (and all of us combined certainly do) I didnt want to get into a discussion about which coins are going to do what but how coins in general will do, be they rare or common, stickered or not, classic or modern etc.
<< <i>Just to clarify, I am talking about the coin market as a whole. The pcgs 3000 may be a good proxy (I am sure those with more knowledge will chime in about any problems with that index) Just like individual stocks some coins will deviate from the averages. But in general a rising tide lifts all ships as they say. Since most of us collect a variety of coins (and all of us combined certainly do) I didnt want to get into a discussion about which coins are going to do what but how coins in general will do, be they rare or common, stickered or not, classic or modern etc. >>
I didnt want to get into a discussion about which coins are going to do what but how coins in general will do, be they rare or common, stickered or not, classic or modern etc. You might want to do a search using the key word 'bifurcation'..........
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Try to get a copy of Maurice Rosen's Numismatic Advisory newsletter. I received it today. It brings up a lot a few of the points you made and a few others that are more tangible. He also states that the coin market is a coiled spring waiting for a spark.
As for your last sentence------ there are a lot of known experts on the markets participating in this thread.
<< <i>Text >>
Text
Thanks MJ, I will get a copy as you advise, and I can tell there are many wise posters here (yourself amoung them) which is why I enjoy this board so much. Hey if coins do in fact go up (possible with what I think may be a final climax move higher in gold) then great (I own plenty of coins) and if they go down, well then let the collecting switch into 5th gear.
PS, Please PM me if you would like to sell your edition of that newsletter after you finish with it. >>
That was one of Rosen's points and the fact we haven't had a whiff of inflation, YET. He does expect gold to go higher, much higher. I fully expect cohodk to show up to this thread momentarily.
PM sent. Good post after all.............MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Please send me a list of all the coins you own which you feel are vulnerable along with prices for them. >>
Don't know what he's got, but I could send you quite a list... (@ half-of-bid levels,) ...although it *might* not be the sort of stuff you normally deal in.
(I'm guessing your buyers don't walk out of your shop carrying heavy canvas bags of old, well-worn bronze & copper-nickel coins.)
Oh, and if you DO get any of those "50% off" gold coin specials, maybe we could do some trades?
>>
I have no store.
I do have a briefcase and a lamp, Express Mail insurance, safe deposit storage, a fortuitous math twitch with a touch of Fibonacci, a garbage-can memory, a mailbox, a checkbook, a cell-phone and an attitude.
Bought a bag of grungy 84-O's in a Christie's sale early 80's for maybe $31K but could have been $24. No matter. Dragged it to Long Beach and made $1500. Gave half of it back to the chiropractor and the orthopedist.
My clients are decrepitating even more quickly than I and their Jazzies were made in China. No bags!
Bought at or since Mar Balt. All Proof 50c, all PCGS, no beans. All were eh+ to fugly. All are sold. Don't have as much action with 25c and smaller.
1882 50c PR66 3400 C++ (ego) 1887 50c PR65 2450 C 1892 50c PR65 2350 C- 1906 50c PR66 3050 C 1908 50c PR67 4250 D
I made from $175 to $300 per. I don't remember all that well and continue in allowing myself to forget.
The PR67 was the toughest to move and probably scared people off because it was so cheap. Talk about over-promise and under-deliver.
I hate buying this dreck, though some of it's semi-decent dreck. Or putatively high-grade dreck. It's hard enough keeping clutter out of my life. All but one of these sold from someone else's box or inventory.
No gold deals except on issues where colleagues can get enough PR70DCAM's through to run a promotion.
However, I am eager to consume mass quantities of most classic commems at 50% of 64 bid
I would rather a 1796 10c in wholesome 55 or a Coronet 1c in PR65RB. CAC 3% and 10% more because they're faster sells. If I don't keep them.
Just be nervous. Feel vulnerable. Chicken Little is planning creative destruction. How soon the zombie packs? Vampire revenants, Misanthropes, Lycanthropes, Glenn Beck, Community Organizers. You can see the writing on the wall.
"Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin". Babylon will fall. It's just a matter of time. Forget slabs. I can put you into some 90% that will buy you armadillo steak in the End Times. Bags of MS62 Roosies. Unsearched culls. Bags of them. Drop-shipped. Trades available.
Clue me in. How are you hedging the dead-cat bounce in the drachma?
Please send me a list of your coins....
BTW, This is in no way a solicitation to buy or sell on this Forum. I do not wish to offend anyone or violate any Forum rules. Whatever they might be.
PM Andy. At the right number he'll buy ANYTHING.
All transactions confidential.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
Over the long term certain coins will probably beat inflation, so in that regard they are a great store of value. I am not sure I would say that ultra rarities beat stocks though. Which stocks did they beat and over what time frame? Thats like comparing Apple to the s&p 500 index. Ultra rarities are like individual stocks. I agree that key date coins have had an impressive track record, but so had stocks in 2000.
And you probably won't until the bottom. Collectors will hold onto their best coins the longest just like fund managers held onto their best stocks during the financial crisis. The market is a force. If the coin market goes down it will "pull" on even the best material.
Is Adrian hold up at your place and does he have your password?
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Please send me a list of all the coins you own which you feel are vulnerable along with prices for them. >>
Don't know what he's got, but I could send you quite a list... (@ half-of-bid levels,) ...although it *might* not be the sort of stuff you normally deal in.
(I'm guessing your buyers don't walk out of your shop carrying heavy canvas bags of old, well-worn bronze & copper-nickel coins.)
Oh, and if you DO get any of those "50% off" gold coin specials, maybe we could do some trades?
>>
I have no store.
I do have a briefcase and a lamp, Express Mail insurance, safe deposit storage, a fortuitous math twitch with a touch of Fibonacci, a garbage-can memory, a checkbook, a cell-phone, a mailbox and an attitude.
Bought a bag of grungy 84-O's in a Christie's sale early 80's for maybe $31K but could have been $24. No matter. Dragged it to Long Beach and made $1500. Gave half of it back to the chiropractor and the orthopedist. My clients are decrepitating even more quickly than I and their Jazzies were made in China. No bags!
Bought at or since Mar Balt. All Proof 50c, all PCGS, no beans. All were eh+ to fugly. All are sold. Don't have as much action with 25c and smaller.
1882 50c PR66 3400 C++ (ego) 1887 50c PR65 2450 C 1892 50c PR65 2350 C- 1906 50c PR66 3050 C 1908 50c PR67 4250 D
I made from $175 to $300 per. I don't remember all that well and continue in allowing myself to forget.
I liked the 82 for its hard mirrors and decent toning. I was pissed I couldn't get 4000, glad to "bail" at 3650 since the CAC shot failed. The PR67 was the toughest to move and probably scared people off because it was so cheap. Talk about over-promise and under-deliver.
I hate buying this dreck, though some of it's semi-decent dreck. It's hard enough keeping clutter out of my life. All but one of these sold from someone else's box or inventory.
No gold deals except on issues where colleagues can get enough PR70DCAM's through to run a promotion.
However, I am eager to consume mass quantities of most classic commems at 50% of 64 bid
I would rather a 1796 10c in wholesome 55 or a Coronet 1c in PR65RB. CAC 3% and 10% more because they're faster sells. If I don't keep them.
Just be nervous. Feel vulnerable. Chicken Little is planning creative destruction. How soon the zombie packs? Vampire revenants, Misanthropes, Lycanthropes, Community Organizers.... You can see the writing on the wall.
"Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin". Babylon will fall. It's just a matter of time. Forget slabs. I can put you into some 90% that will buy you armadillo steak in the End Times. Bags of MS62 Roosies. Unsearched culls. Bags of them. Drop-shipped. Trades available.
Clue me in. How are you hedging the dead-cat bounce in the drachma?
Please send me a list of your coins....
BTW, This is in no way a solicitation to buy or sell on this Forum. I do not wish to offend anyone or violate any Forum rules. Whatever they might be.
PM Andy. At the right number he'll buy ANYTHING.
All transactions confidential. >>
Damn Colonel your really a great writer.......very witty and bright posts!
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<<Damn Colonel your really a great writer.......very witty and bright posts! >>
You ain't whistling Dixie. He's a major talent. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
My feeling is things are going to get so bad in this country, A LOT worse than what happened in 2008, it's going to shock everyone.
Look, the only reason things picked up in 2008 was because of the massive injection into the banks. THIS INJECTION DID NOT SOLVE ANYTHING. All the problems are still there, and then some. There is something to the tune of $800 TRILLION (yes, trillion) in derivatives out there. It is going to take one spark to light this blaze.
Anyhoo, when this comes to frution, and it will, I think the coin market will get crushed. When you are going to have millions that can't afford to eat, are they going to hold onto their coins? Of course not. Supply will hit the market like it never has.
Now that being said, I think gold is the big winner here. I purchased my first ounce at $395, and if I listened to the first person to have told me to sell, I would have sold at $400. It is going a lot higher from here.
I personally think junk silver is the place to be. What will a generic Gauden dollar be able to do for a person as one cannot make change for the coin.
Now, I do believe, as has been said here already, the middle to the lower end of the market will get decimated. Is anyone going to care for a generic MS64 Morgan dollar for anything other than its silver value. And, is anyone going to care (picking a date here) an 1899-S Morgan that books for about $300 in MS64, again for anything other than silver value?
I would assume the uber rarities will hold a good deal of their value, but those too will also get hit, but be the first to bounce back.
<< <i>And you probably won't until the bottom. Collectors will hold onto their best coins the longest just like fund managers held onto their best stocks during the financial crisis. The market is a force. If the coin market goes down it will "pull" on even the best material. >>
I think this is also an untrue comment, an overgeneralization and a poor comparison.
In the end coins are a hobby and are a drop in the bucket compared to the world of investing in stocks......
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I respect your opinion, but would you not say that if the reverse comes to pass and we have an absolute bull market in coins that it wouldn't pull even the most drecky of dreck up with it? I do believe that comparisons can be made...
Coins may be more than just a hobby. There is a certain difference compared to stamps, or pokemon cards. To some of us they are simply a much more interesting form of money because, well they are money! And people who like money, who truly respect money, for what it is (a store of human time and energy) tend, I think, to be inclined to like rare coins. Human nature does not change. As other "hobbies" have come and gone with the prevailing winds, coin collecting has been around since the advent of coins themselves. Had you been paid one silver dollar for a week of work in 1798 and lost the coin in a field, to be discovered today by a detectorist, that value of your labor would have been more or less preserved over the course of over 200 years. Figuring the coin sells for a grand or so which most people now probably earn in a week. Now thats something!
<< <i>I respect your opinion, but would you not say that if the reverse comes to pass and we have an absolute bull market in coins that it wouldn't pull even the most drecky of dreck up with it? I do believe that comparisons can be made... >>
IMO, speaking as a collector, it is very difficult to lump all coins together when talking about 'bull' markets and 'bear' markets in coins. I don't think bull and bear market terminology is really a proper description for coins.
In your original OP you alluded to the word 'supply'.
I think supply and demand is more apt for cycles in the coin industry......
When it comes to coins supply and demand may or may not be affected by what is happening in the economy........
So alot depends on ones interests and certainly staying power when it comes to a decision to buy. sell or hold coins.
Thats why the emphasis should be as a hobby in my view. I never put myself in a position that I have to sell.
Also, as others have stated, the industry has greatly evolved since I have been collecting.
There is clearly more of a focus on unmessed with coins of any grade. This compared to the word 'dreck' which seems to be a more recent connotation for messed with coins......those have been dropping in value for some time.....
Therein lies the bifurcation I mentioned relative to supply and demand of certain coins.....
I believe one should have fun and enjoy collecting at any level, dreck or not.......
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Plan for the best, be prepared for the worst, and pay attention.
That's the best you can do. >>
Lot's of germs of truth here. Put yourself in the best position with good sleeping weight and you will be way ahead of the game.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
IDK about a crash but something on the southward side of steady, sparse retail which has been going on for sometime. This translates into low offers to potential seller shopping their material around the bourse.
Unless a big uptick in the metal prices or money rushing into coins I believe big ticket holders of coins (say $5000) are facing the possibly of being crushed in a forced sell situation. If a seller believes he can only flip a coin at say 70% or market value and his buy price is currently 60% of what he thinks he can sell it for, then a seller forced to sell may be looking at an offer in the 42% - 50% of market value range. I saw this happen with a guy offering a $6000 coin (he had bought 6 months ago) to the guy setup at a table next to me at a recent show (receiving an offer of $3500). He offered it to the next two guys to that persons left and they both said "not buying, lack of funds." He then came back and offered it to me and I expressed "not buying at this time." I really had no interest in it and did not want to spend big money.
Originally posted by: Cougar1978 IDK about a crash but something on the southward side of steady, sparse retail which has been going on for sometime. This translates into low offers to potential seller shopping their material around the bourse.
Unless a big uptick in the metal prices or money rushing into coins I believe big ticket holders of coins (say $5000) are facing the possibly of being crushed in a forced sell situation. If a seller believes he can only flip a coin at say 70% or market value and his buy price is currently 60% of what he thinks he can sell it for, then a seller forced to sell may be looking at an offer in the 42% - 50% of market value range. I saw this happen with a guy offering a $6000 coin (he had bought 6 months ago) to the guy setup at a table next to me at a recent show (receiving an offer of $3500). He offered it to the next two guys to that persons left and they both said "not buying, lack of funds." He then came back and offered it to me and I expressed "not buying at this time." I really had no interest in it and did not want to spend big money.
Huh?
So the coin market is headed south because you and a couple other dealers at the tables next to you don't have any money to buy any inventory, and sellers are being forced to sell?
Some refer to overgraded slabs as Coffins. I like to think of them as Happy Coins.
Originally posted by: Cougar1978 IDK about a crash but something on the southward side of steady, sparse retail which has been going on for sometime. This translates into low offers to potential seller shopping their material around the bourse.
Unless a big uptick in the metal prices or money rushing into coins I believe big ticket holders of coins (say $5000) are facing the possibly of being crushed in a forced sell situation. If a seller believes he can only flip a coin at say 70% or market value and his buy price is currently 60% of what he thinks he can sell it for, then a seller forced to sell may be looking at an offer in the 42% - 50% of market value range. I saw this happen with a guy offering a $6000 coin (he had bought 6 months ago) to the guy setup at a table next to me at a recent show (receiving an offer of $3500). He offered it to the next two guys to that persons left and they both said "not buying, lack of funds." He then came back and offered it to me and I expressed "not buying at this time." I really had no interest in it and did not want to spend big money.
Huh?
So the coin market is headed south because you and a couple other dealers at the tables next to you don't have any money to buy any inventory, and sellers are being forced to sell?
The problem with this premise is that subpar economic conditions will hit little guys first. Good coins that are $5K and up are mostly in strong hands. When the recession hit in my neck of the woods, I routinely made the rounds of the coin shops (10 of them), hoping to pick up nice coins. What walked into the shops was almost exclusively bullion and junk (modern proof sets, avg. circ. silver, etc.).
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
Maybe not a crash but seems a lot softer prices are occurring.
The OP was more than 3 years ago. Was he right?
They were wrong, at least for that time period. Coins crashed from fall of 2008 to mid-2011, in unison with the stock market. By 2012 things were starting to mend. If anything, the market rebounded for most decent items from 2012 to mid-2015, again, along with the stock market.
On each rise the coin market knocks off the bottom 20-30% as no longer being investment quality, whatever that means. We saw that in 1989-1996, and again 2008-2011. That has to happen as long as the total volume of collectors/investors and total dollars invested in the coin market don't keep dramatically rising. While a dip is a great buying opportunity, it sure stinks to be the owner and see a 65% dip as we did on most speculative coins from 1980-1982 and 1990-1995. The 2008-2011 seemed to be only a 20-40% dip on most of the volatile "investment" coins. The PCGS 3000 may not be a good marker of the entire coin market as it excludes probably 90-99% of all those who consider themselves "collectors." From an investment market view for more serious spenders the PCGS 3000 is a pretty good evaluator. The 25-30 year chart is sitting on a ledge. Ledges tend to have only 2 options.
Comments
If tax and spend advocates who wish to tax “millionaires and billionaires” starting with working couples making $250K a year win big and start using tax revenues to reduce the deficit and/or pay for national infrastructure or alternative energy projects, then it will take some money out of the coin market as the folks at the lower end of that higher tax bracket feel the tax hit. I would guess that coins in the $500 to $5,000 range would be the ones primarily impacted. Inexpensive coins, such as new Mint issues, may continue to sell with little effect as new jobs are created or as the taxed folks lower their pricing points. The folks with more money than they can spend in a lifetime and who buy tropical islands will still be able to buy whatever they want at virtually any price.
On the other hand, if irresponsible, jingoistic people come back into power, then there are a host of scenarios, all of them bad, that could impact the market at all levels. Further tax cuts coupled with spending cuts could help tank the economy again. Our country could find itself spending huge amounts of money on defense programs that the Pentagon does not want, and on foreign military adventures without a source of funding. Money from all over the world that is presently seeking shelter in US Treasuries, keeping interest rates at extremely low levels, could seek shelter elsewhere, resulting in higher debt costs for the US, tight credit for consumers and business, and a dramatic increase in the price of gold which may be the alternative to the dollars as a source of safety. Unless of course the Euro collapses too, in which case all bets are off since at some price gold will no longer seem like a safe haven. I do not see the US middle class flocking to coins under those circumstances. Instead, we could see a lot less carefree spending on coins at virtually all levels.
Or we can continue to have governmental gridlock, in which case things will sputter along, with the high end of the market doing OK and with weakness in the low and middle sectors.
CG
Like 12 MCMVII $20's in MS65 at 40K per. They are common and popular. Just the sort of crap that, according to {some} people's theories, should be in line for a dip. Er.... market drop. (Not a doctoring thread)
Don't be a
Many good points were made in this thread, but consider please that all generalizations are bad
It's coming. You know it. Act now. Puhleeeze.
Sure I'm busting chops. But how many prognosticators wiill back up their opinion with action. Otherwise it's
All transactions in confidence. Good funds up to $500K daily. Starts next Monday due to the erratic, arbitrary and capricious behavior of banks in the best of times.
Good funds
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I can guaranty a 50% crash. I just can't say when, or from what levels. >>
GULP !!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Serves you right. You're supposed to be on vacation and not thinking about money!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>The stickering craze is about the only thing other than bullion prices that have kept better coin prices afloat over the past 2 years.
But these too appear to be reaching their shelf life. That is, a stickered coin on average shouldn't be priced at more than say 2X more than one that is not stickered.
We're already at that point in many cases. It may be a far better value to buy an unstickered coin at a 50% discount to stickered, especially if said coin is not unattractive
or problematic, other than it never fully deserved the "technical" grade it once received. A market can't be healthy when all of a sudden 40% or more of slabbed coins
have become "losers" because they won't sticker. And even if they do sticker, half of them will bring 20-30% less because they are in the wrong holders. Coins have
always been graded or valued on a continuum. The coins today are no different than they were 10 or 20 yrs ago, only the labels on their holders. But it seems the labels and
stickers are now the driving force, not the coins. It's now a market that I am no longer familiar with. It has some similarities to the rating agencies out there that state this
investment is AAA and this other one is only bbb. In many cases the two items can be identical when all packaging and ratings are removed. You could see this shift coming
over 5 years ago....just never thought it would get to this extreme. More than likely, we haven't seen the ultimate extremes. You can't have a true bull market in this type of
environment. But it does remind me of 1990-1993 when the definition of "investment" grade coin was largely reworked to exclude more than 50% of the coins that fueled the
1987-1990 bull market. Another weeding out is occurring because once again there are just too many coins. They all can't be "investment" or "fussy-collector" grade. I understand
the process, just not the way it has occurred (ie truly good/comparable coins being tossed aside because they are not holdered or stickered properly). >>
The above says everything one needs to know about the subject. Imo, with all of the serious money that has entered numismatics in the last ten years or so, along with the inevitable marketing which has accompanied it, anyone who buys the proverbial coin, without regard for the holder and its acutrements, does so at his own peril. Caveat Emptor.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Show reports are bad (read between lines of "bullish" dealer and price guide reports as they all have a vested interest in a stronger market).
Look at the pcgs 3000 index and cdn graph books (if you have them). The big increase in price over the last 10 years is your "risk"
Heritage is raising the "buyer fee" from 15 to 17.5%. Since we all know this is a sellers fee it tells you that demand to SELL coins is up. You don't raise a fee like that if there is a dearth of consignor
Stocks will go up simply because they are under owned or due to qe. Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
These are just my thoughts and observations. I am no expert on coins but i am an expert on markets.
<< <i>Hot money came in and now it is sitting nervously on a pile of coins it knows nothing about. This money is "cooling" and will leave just as fast.
Show reports are bad (read between lines of "bullish" dealer and price guide reports as they all have a vested interest in a stronger market).
Look at the pcgs 3000 index and cdn graph books (if you have them). The big increase in price over the last 10 years is your "risk"
Heritage is raising the "buyer fee" from 15 to 17.5%. Since we all know this is a sellers fee it tells you that demand to SELL coins is up. You don't raise a fee like that if there is a dearth of consignor
Stocks will go up simply because they are under owned or due to qe. Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
These are just my thoughts and observations. I am no expert on coins but i am an expert on markets. >>
Try to get a copy of Maurice Rosen's Numismatic Advisory newsletter. I received it today. It brings up a lot a few of the points you made and a few others that are more tangible. He also states that the coin market is a coiled spring waiting for a spark.
As for your last sentence------ there are a lot of known experts on the markets participating in this thread.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Try to get a copy of Maurice Rosen's Numismatic Advisory newsletter. I received it today. It brings up a lot a few of the points you made and a few others that are more tangible. He also states that the coin market is a coiled spring waiting for a spark.
As for your last sentence------ there are a lot of known experts on the markets participating in this thread.
<< <i>Text >>
Text
Thanks MJ, I will get a copy as you advise, and I can tell there are many wise posters here (yourself amoung them) which is why I enjoy this board so much. Hey if coins do in fact go up (possible with what I think may be a final climax move higher in gold) then great (I own plenty of coins) and if they go down, well then let the collecting switch into 5th gear.
PS, Please PM me if you would like to sell your edition of that newsletter after you finish with it.
<< <i>Hot money came in and now it is sitting nervously on a pile of coins it knows nothing about. This money is "cooling" and will leave just as fast.
Show reports are bad (read between lines of "bullish" dealer and price guide reports as they all have a vested interest in a stronger market).
Look at the pcgs 3000 index and cdn graph books (if you have them). The big increase in price over the last 10 years is your "risk"
Heritage is raising the "buyer fee" from 15 to 17.5%. Since we all know this is a sellers fee it tells you that demand to SELL coins is up. You don't raise a fee like that if there is a dearth of consignor
Stocks will go up simply because they are under owned or due to qe. Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
These are just my thoughts and observations. I am no expert on coins but i am an expert on markets. >>
So are you buying stocks or great coins?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I agree that PQ, better date, scarce issues will only improve and continue to rise in price. I feel from an economic standpoint that the coin market is indeed cyclical BUT it is healthy and has continued on a MOSTLY upward trend for the last 55-60 years and I expect it to continue. There are troughs and peaks but GENERALLY prices have risen.
In 2005, prices for better date Walkers were STRONG and they have softened just a bit since then. I DO believe that in the next 15-20 years prices will only climb for these coins as they are sooo scarce.
I don't believe that we will find any 'magical hoard' of the really scarce stuff, either. If such a thing existed, it would surely have surfaced by now. Believing in finding these hoards has been rumored since the 1960s-70s and it was always fantasy and nothing more. The rare, scarce stuff will only become scarcer and MORE in demand.
The only way that I see a serious falter in the US coin market is if the U.S. experiences a complete economic collapse. In that case, coins and pretty much everything else will be the least of our concerns, as we will be burning currency to keep warm and simply trying to survive.
As far as collectors dying and new generations showing no interest---I don't see this happening. Coins have been popular for 100s of years and they will be popular in another 100. Even if coins became obsolete, they will always be admired and collected as historical works of art. Just my opinion.
And YES! I feel that they are MUCH safer than the stock market because you will never LOSE money----I haven't and I've been at this for quite some time.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Actually, for the great coins this is patently the opposite of the truth. My bank did a study before they granted me my coin based line of credit and the results showed that the ultra rarities actually outperformed the stock market over decades.
If you think about it, it makes sense. The odds are that more than a few wealthy coin collectors will outperform the market [I know that right now, for the past 4 years I am] and set the market in the coin arena.
<< <i>Whatever the reason, coin prices will suffer as their owners see stocks going up and their coins going nowhere or down.
Actually, for the great coins this is patently the opposite of the truth. My bank did a study before they granted me my coin based line of credit and the results showed that the ultra rarities actually outperformed the stock market over decades.
If you think about it, it makes sense. The odds are that more than a few wealthy coin collectors will outperform the market [I know that right now, for the past 4 years I am] and set the market in the coin arena. >>
TDN--QDB mentions a very similar study in his book about collecting and investing strategies.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
<< <i>Just to clarify, I am talking about the coin market as a whole. The pcgs 3000 may be a good proxy (I am sure those with more knowledge will chime in about any problems with that index) Just like individual stocks some coins will deviate from the averages. But in general a rising tide lifts all ships as they say. Since most of us collect a variety of coins (and all of us combined certainly do) I didnt want to get into a discussion about which coins are going to do what but how coins in general will do, be they rare or common, stickered or not, classic or modern etc. >>
I didnt want to get into a discussion about which coins are going to do what but how coins in general will do, be they rare or common, stickered or not, classic or modern etc. You might want to do a search using the key word 'bifurcation'..........
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Try to get a copy of Maurice Rosen's Numismatic Advisory newsletter. I received it today. It brings up a lot a few of the points you made and a few others that are more tangible. He also states that the coin market is a coiled spring waiting for a spark.
As for your last sentence------ there are a lot of known experts on the markets participating in this thread.
<< <i>Text >>
Text
Thanks MJ, I will get a copy as you advise, and I can tell there are many wise posters here (yourself amoung them) which is why I enjoy this board so much. Hey if coins do in fact go up (possible with what I think may be a final climax move higher in gold) then great (I own plenty of coins) and if they go down, well then let the collecting switch into 5th gear.
PS, Please PM me if you would like to sell your edition of that newsletter after you finish with it. >>
That was one of Rosen's points and the fact we haven't had a whiff of inflation, YET. He does expect gold to go higher, much higher. I fully expect cohodk to show up to this thread momentarily
PM sent. Good post after all.............MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>Please send me a list of all the coins you own which you feel are vulnerable along with prices for them.
>>
Don't know what he's got, but I could send you quite a list... (@ half-of-bid levels,) ...although it *might* not be the sort of stuff you normally deal in.
(I'm guessing your buyers don't walk out of your shop carrying heavy canvas bags of old, well-worn bronze & copper-nickel coins.)
Oh, and if you DO get any of those "50% off" gold coin specials, maybe we could do some trades?
>>
I have no store.
I do have a briefcase and a lamp, Express Mail insurance, safe deposit storage, a fortuitous math twitch with a touch of Fibonacci, a garbage-can memory, a mailbox, a checkbook, a cell-phone and an attitude.
Bought a bag of grungy 84-O's in a Christie's sale early 80's for maybe $31K but could have been $24. No matter. Dragged it to Long Beach and made $1500. Gave half of it back to the chiropractor and the orthopedist.
My clients are decrepitating even more quickly than I and their Jazzies were made in China. No bags!
Bought at or since Mar Balt. All Proof 50c, all PCGS, no beans. All were eh+ to fugly. All are sold. Don't have as much action with 25c and smaller.
1882 50c PR66 3400 C++ (ego)
1887 50c PR65 2450 C
1892 50c PR65 2350 C-
1906 50c PR66 3050 C
1908 50c PR67 4250 D
I made from $175 to $300 per. I don't remember all that well and continue in allowing myself to forget.
The PR67 was the toughest to move and probably scared people off because it was so cheap. Talk about over-promise and under-deliver.
I hate buying this dreck, though some of it's semi-decent dreck. Or putatively high-grade dreck. It's hard enough keeping clutter out of my life. All but one of these sold from someone else's box or inventory.
No gold deals except on issues where colleagues can get enough PR70DCAM's through to run a promotion.
However, I am eager to consume mass quantities of most classic commems at 50% of 64 bid
I would rather a 1796 10c in wholesome 55 or a Coronet 1c in PR65RB. CAC 3% and 10% more because they're faster sells. If I don't keep them.
Just be nervous. Feel vulnerable. Chicken Little is planning creative destruction. How soon the zombie packs? Vampire revenants, Misanthropes, Lycanthropes, Glenn Beck, Community Organizers. You can see the writing on the wall.
"Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin". Babylon will fall. It's just a matter of time. Forget slabs. I can put you into some 90% that will buy you armadillo steak in the End Times. Bags of MS62 Roosies. Unsearched culls. Bags of them. Drop-shipped. Trades available.
Clue me in. How are you hedging the dead-cat bounce in the drachma?
Please send me a list of your coins....
BTW, This is in no way a solicitation to buy or sell on this Forum. I do not wish to offend anyone or violate any Forum rules. Whatever they might be.
PM Andy. At the right number he'll buy ANYTHING.
All transactions confidential.
Is Adrian hold up at your place and does he have your password?
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Please send me a list of all the coins you own which you feel are vulnerable along with prices for them.
>>
Don't know what he's got, but I could send you quite a list... (@ half-of-bid levels,) ...although it *might* not be the sort of stuff you normally deal in.
(I'm guessing your buyers don't walk out of your shop carrying heavy canvas bags of old, well-worn bronze & copper-nickel coins.)
Oh, and if you DO get any of those "50% off" gold coin specials, maybe we could do some trades?
>>
I have no store.
I do have a briefcase and a lamp, Express Mail insurance, safe deposit storage, a fortuitous math twitch with a touch of Fibonacci, a garbage-can memory, a checkbook, a cell-phone, a mailbox and an attitude.
Bought a bag of grungy 84-O's in a Christie's sale early 80's for maybe $31K but could have been $24. No matter. Dragged it to Long Beach and made $1500. Gave half of it back to the chiropractor and the orthopedist.
Bought at or since Mar Balt. All Proof 50c, all PCGS, no beans. All were eh+ to fugly. All are sold. Don't have as much action with 25c and smaller.
1882 50c PR66 3400 C++ (ego)
1887 50c PR65 2450 C
1892 50c PR65 2350 C-
1906 50c PR66 3050 C
1908 50c PR67 4250 D
I made from $175 to $300 per. I don't remember all that well and continue in allowing myself to forget.
I liked the 82 for its hard mirrors and decent toning. I was pissed I couldn't get 4000, glad to "bail" at 3650 since the CAC shot failed. The PR67 was the toughest to move and probably scared people off because it was so cheap. Talk about over-promise and under-deliver.
I hate buying this dreck, though some of it's semi-decent dreck. It's hard enough keeping clutter out of my life. All but one of these sold from someone else's box or inventory.
No gold deals except on issues where colleagues can get enough PR70DCAM's through to run a promotion.
However, I am eager to consume mass quantities of most classic commems at 50% of 64 bid
I would rather a 1796 10c in wholesome 55 or a Coronet 1c in PR65RB. CAC 3% and 10% more because they're faster sells. If I don't keep them.
Just be nervous. Feel vulnerable. Chicken Little is planning creative destruction. How soon the zombie packs? Vampire revenants, Misanthropes, Lycanthropes, Community Organizers.... You can see the writing on the wall.
"Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin". Babylon will fall. It's just a matter of time. Forget slabs. I can put you into some 90% that will buy you armadillo steak in the End Times. Bags of MS62 Roosies. Unsearched culls. Bags of them. Drop-shipped. Trades available.
Clue me in. How are you hedging the dead-cat bounce in the drachma?
Please send me a list of your coins....
BTW, This is in no way a solicitation to buy or sell on this Forum. I do not wish to offend anyone or violate any Forum rules. Whatever they might be.
PM Andy. At the right number he'll buy ANYTHING.
All transactions confidential.
Damn Colonel your really a great writer.......very witty and bright posts!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
You ain't whistling Dixie. He's a major talent. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Thank God my State Quarter Hoard can't drop any lower. I'm on the floor now at 25 cents each.
Actually if/when inflation picks up, the buying power of those quarters will be eroded. Just like all fiat currency since 1913.
Look, the only reason things picked up in 2008 was because of the massive injection into the banks. THIS INJECTION DID NOT SOLVE ANYTHING. All the problems are still there, and then some. There is something to the tune of $800 TRILLION (yes, trillion) in derivatives out there. It is going to take one spark to light this blaze.
Anyhoo, when this comes to frution, and it will, I think the coin market will get crushed. When you are going to have millions that can't afford to eat, are they going to hold onto their coins? Of course not. Supply will hit the market like it never has.
Now that being said, I think gold is the big winner here. I purchased my first ounce at $395, and if I listened to the first person to have told me to sell, I would have sold at $400. It is going a lot higher from here.
I personally think junk silver is the place to be. What will a generic Gauden dollar be able to do for a person as one cannot make change for the coin.
Now, I do believe, as has been said here already, the middle to the lower end of the market will get decimated. Is anyone going to care for a generic MS64 Morgan dollar for anything other than its silver value. And, is anyone going to care (picking a date here) an 1899-S Morgan that books for about $300 in MS64, again for anything other than silver value?
I would assume the uber rarities will hold a good deal of their value, but those too will also get hit, but be the first to bounce back.
<< <i>And you probably won't until the bottom. Collectors will hold onto their best coins the longest just like fund managers held onto their best stocks during the financial crisis. The market is a force. If the coin market goes down it will "pull" on even the best material. >>
I think this is also an untrue comment, an overgeneralization and a poor comparison.
In the end coins are a hobby and are a drop in the bucket compared to the world of investing in stocks......
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I respect your opinion, but would you not say that if the reverse comes to pass and we have an absolute bull market in coins that it wouldn't pull even the most drecky of dreck up with it? I do believe that comparisons can be made... >>
IMO, speaking as a collector, it is very difficult to lump all coins together when talking about 'bull' markets and 'bear' markets in coins. I don't think bull and bear market terminology is really a proper description for coins.
In your original OP you alluded to the word 'supply'.
I think supply and demand is more apt for cycles in the coin industry......
When it comes to coins supply and demand may or may not be affected by what is happening in the economy........
So alot depends on ones interests and certainly staying power when it comes to a decision to buy. sell or hold coins.
Thats why the emphasis should be as a hobby in my view. I never put myself in a position that I have to sell.
Also, as others have stated, the industry has greatly evolved since I have been collecting.
There is clearly more of a focus on unmessed with coins of any grade. This compared to the word 'dreck' which seems to be a more recent connotation for messed with coins......those have been dropping in value for some time.....
Therein lies the bifurcation I mentioned relative to supply and demand of certain coins.....
I believe one should have fun and enjoy collecting at any level, dreck or not.......
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
There is no way to know.
Plan for the best, be prepared for the worst, and pay attention.
That's the best you can do.
<< <i>How many of you read horoscopes too?
There is no way to know.
Plan for the best, be prepared for the worst, and pay attention.
That's the best you can do. >>
Lot's of germs of truth here. Put yourself in the best position with good sleeping weight and you will be way ahead of the game.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Maybe not a crash but seems a lot softer prices are occurring.
The OP was more than 3 years ago. Was he right?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Unless a big uptick in the metal prices or money rushing into coins I believe big ticket holders of coins (say $5000) are facing the possibly of being crushed in a forced sell situation. If a seller believes he can only flip a coin at say 70% or market value and his buy price is currently 60% of what he thinks he can sell it for, then a seller forced to sell may be looking at an offer in the 42% - 50% of market value range. I saw this happen with a guy offering a $6000 coin (he had bought 6 months ago) to the guy setup at a table next to me at a recent show (receiving an offer of $3500). He offered it to the next two guys to that persons left and they both said "not buying, lack of funds." He then came back and offered it to me and I expressed "not buying at this time." I really had no interest in it and did not want to spend big money.
IDK about a crash but something on the southward side of steady, sparse retail which has been going on for sometime. This translates into low offers to potential seller shopping their material around the bourse.
Unless a big uptick in the metal prices or money rushing into coins I believe big ticket holders of coins (say $5000) are facing the possibly of being crushed in a forced sell situation. If a seller believes he can only flip a coin at say 70% or market value and his buy price is currently 60% of what he thinks he can sell it for, then a seller forced to sell may be looking at an offer in the 42% - 50% of market value range. I saw this happen with a guy offering a $6000 coin (he had bought 6 months ago) to the guy setup at a table next to me at a recent show (receiving an offer of $3500). He offered it to the next two guys to that persons left and they both said "not buying, lack of funds." He then came back and offered it to me and I expressed "not buying at this time." I really had no interest in it and did not want to spend big money.
Huh?
So the coin market is headed south because you and a couple other dealers at the tables next to you don't have any money to buy any inventory, and sellers are being forced to sell?
IDK about a crash but something on the southward side of steady, sparse retail which has been going on for sometime. This translates into low offers to potential seller shopping their material around the bourse.
Unless a big uptick in the metal prices or money rushing into coins I believe big ticket holders of coins (say $5000) are facing the possibly of being crushed in a forced sell situation. If a seller believes he can only flip a coin at say 70% or market value and his buy price is currently 60% of what he thinks he can sell it for, then a seller forced to sell may be looking at an offer in the 42% - 50% of market value range. I saw this happen with a guy offering a $6000 coin (he had bought 6 months ago) to the guy setup at a table next to me at a recent show (receiving an offer of $3500). He offered it to the next two guys to that persons left and they both said "not buying, lack of funds." He then came back and offered it to me and I expressed "not buying at this time." I really had no interest in it and did not want to spend big money.
Huh?
So the coin market is headed south because you and a couple other dealers at the tables next to you don't have any money to buy any inventory, and sellers are being forced to sell?
The problem with this premise is that subpar economic conditions will hit little guys first. Good coins that are $5K and up are mostly in strong hands. When the recession hit in my neck of the woods, I routinely made the rounds of the coin shops (10 of them), hoping to pick up nice coins. What walked into the shops was almost exclusively bullion and junk (modern proof sets, avg. circ. silver, etc.).
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
There was no rhyme or reason to the series or particular coin.
Market declines are always good buying opportunities for those with cash and plan.
Dollar cost averaging and holding long term is generally a good plan if you are a collector of coins, art, or mutual funds.
Are you a flipper or a collector?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Maybe not a crash but seems a lot softer prices are occurring.
The 3 1/2 year later casual bump.
Maybe not a crash but seems a lot softer prices are occurring.
The OP was more than 3 years ago. Was he right?
They were wrong, at least for that time period. Coins crashed from fall of 2008 to mid-2011, in unison with the stock market. By 2012 things were starting to mend. If anything, the market rebounded for most decent items from 2012 to mid-2015, again, along with the stock market.
On each rise the coin market knocks off the bottom 20-30% as no longer being investment quality, whatever that means. We saw that in 1989-1996, and again 2008-2011. That has to happen as long as the total volume of collectors/investors and total dollars invested in the coin market don't keep dramatically rising. While a dip is a great buying opportunity, it sure stinks to be the owner and see a 65% dip as we did on most speculative coins from 1980-1982 and 1990-1995. The 2008-2011 seemed to be only a 20-40% dip on most of the volatile "investment" coins. The PCGS 3000 may not be a good marker of the entire coin market as it excludes probably 90-99% of all those who consider themselves "collectors." From an investment market view for more serious spenders the PCGS 3000 is a pretty good evaluator. The 25-30 year chart is sitting on a ledge. Ledges tend to have only 2 options.