I don't want to give the impression that all I care about is making money or "investing" in coins. There are much better investments than coins. But coins are an asset and they trade in a market so I am trying to use my knowledge about markets and apply them to coins. Buying at the right time is important. I stopped buying coins for the past years because I thought the prices would come down and they have. Will they go lower? -- that was the point of this thread. Are they low enough now for me to start buying right now? Yes. Are there "better" coins coming on the market right now? Yes. I stopped buying coins in 2006 when you couldnt even find a 1921 Peace dollar (in any condition) at our local coin show.
The cool thing about coins is that a bear market doesn't just mean that your coins are worth less. It means you can start collecting much nicer coins for less money.
<< <i>When prices drop, lots of better coins *don't* come up for sale- they go into hiding. >>
All coins eventually come up for sale unless they are in a museum, buried with their owner, or destroyed in a natural disaster.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<This has been said before but if your hobby is golf and you want to get out of it all you have left are memories of playing and your gold clubs, with our hobbby you have the same memories but you also have what you spent you hard earned money right within arms reach and can cash that in at the appropriate moment you choose, how can you beat that.>
You can't - thats why this is a "smart hobby" vs. something like, I don't know, RC airplanes which you just end up crashing...
First let me clear the waters, Gold"Bully" is a good guy that just so happens to have an opinion. Just roll with it. I think it's a stupid question too, only because I think it was born out of the Obamacare decision and the prospects of the world spiraling into a SHTF scenario.
To be clear, there are three types of people:
1. The people that see issues and take action to correct them.
2. The people that are neutral.
3. The people that see issues and do nothing to correct the issue but like to stir the pot to see other peoples reactions.
So the troll question that was asked...
<< <i>Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices? >>
and
<< <i>Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>
Let me explain why I think this is a dumb question, then you can flame me
"Major" is a shock word with this first sentence in the opening title of the thread. This was used to bring people in to see what this "new forum member" is talking about.
We open it up and see, "50%" with no facts to back it up. Another, "Holy smokes" number.
"Curious as to what the veterans think" is jargon used to say, "The younger generation is smarter".
"Seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork", non-confirmable information to support his/her point.
Everything about this thread says troll.
______________________________________
Now to answer the question... (Hey, I could be wrong about the whole thing above).
I think no. Many collectors are born collectors, sure the lure of profit is in most of us (Since we collect coins and not used straws) but the pursuit of art and history is what propels us to collect. In a down economy the norm is usually less buying and go back to the roots of searching rolls or reading books about our favorite coins (which costs almost nothing but keeps us in the hobby). We collectors do not usually jump ship and sell our coins at a loss... Like history, we are in it for the long haul. The people that jump ship might be those that invest in bullion (Trying to grab profit before the SPOT goes below their buy price), but the coin collectors do not usually jump ship, so this will NEVER be the case, even if he is elected again... we will just go on collecting.
I know I left a lot out there but the point is... No, I do not see a "Major" crash of "50%" or more in the numismatic economy. And GoldBully is a cool guy
<< <i>I've lived through a few major market corrections (1980 and 1989 were the biggest) so it's entirely possible. Time will tell if your concerns are warranted. >>
I lived through those same market corrections and agree it is possible to see another one. But, I got some of my best coins when the market was really soft. Coins move in cycles.
All I know is my area. When Doug Winter comes back from a show and posts his newps, half the coins are committed within a few hours of posting and a day before the photos come up. Prices continue to rise. Two huge 19th century gold coin collections were sold earlier this year (Helem and Littlejohn in January and February, respectively), and these coins are all off the market. If I had 10 decent 1861-D $5's in XF-45 to 55, I could sell them all at PCGS price guide or above in less than an hour. Could all of this change overnight? Absolutely! I see no signs of weakening in the rare date gold market. YMMV
<< <i>In the last 10 years many coins have risen about 100% or doubled in value. Could they not go right back down? >>
In the last ten years, many coins have also lost 30-40% of their value. About which coins are you discussing?
Someone mentioned Bust $s. In AU, type is down 20% in the last 8 to 10 years. I should know; I looked at over 100 of them before buying one 18 months ago.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>All coins eventually come up for sale unless they are in a museum, buried with their owner, or destroyed in a natural disaster. >>
Of course they do. Nobody's said otherwise. All I'm saying is that if prices are falling, people are less likely to sell unless they have no other choice. Would you sell your best coins in a falling market if you didn't have to?
This is a Presidential election year. Not happening in 2012.
2013? No either.
2014? Quite possible we will see a correction of between 20-30% as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten up the money supply. This prediction will only happen when the Federal Reserve applies the necessary measure of monetary growth restraint.
It must be noted that Maurice Rosen is a guest speaker at the upcoming PCGS luncheon and Maurice is as good as they come as a economist with special knowledge of the coin and bullion markets!
<< <i>Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>
You must have missed the 2009 crash where most coin prices from from 25-40%. And if you happened to own low end coins that won't sticker, you might have to increase that to -50%. Summers are almost always weak. Though during the ANA summer show the auctions often get heated, even in down markets. In any case I think we saw the first corrective leg in 2009 and now the follow-on bounce. Portions or all of 2013-2014 will be a very difficult time for most coins as the 12, 30, 60 and 120 year economic cycles all bottom out together. This last euphoric bounce (along with stocks) could last into the fall or even spring 2013. Once it's over, don't expect a lot from rare coin prices other than the top 1-5% of coins that the big dogs buy. Most coin prices (non bullion and non-rarities) are back to 2003-2004 levels. They went up for a few years and came right back down. I don't expect a crash in prices but rather a slow grind through 2014. With the cost of living getting tighter along with paychecks, I don't see where the majority of collectors or investors will remain strong buyers. It's obvious that many have been mostly on the sidelines since 2008. No one in numismatics was around for the last 120 yr cycle bottom. What we've seen so far from 2008-2011 was just the warm-up act.
It's hunch, no supportive arguement is needed. What about the thread in the precious metal forum, in which, a member also had a "hunch" about the crash of precious metals? I"m sure you'll classify that as a troll thread also?
<< <i>And GoldBully is a cool guy >>
Not in this thread
As for the subject matter, it has already happened to many modern issues. I remember the 1999 silver proof set was in the $300-350 range or more a few years back, now is actually on sale on eBay for $119. Recently, sold my Roosie dime set with 40% top pop, that was completed a few years ago, and recorded a 29% lost. Anything can happen, even for classic issues if a "huge" hoard was discovered, or it comes to a time when all of the seniors of this hobby are deceased without adding any significant number of new "serious" collectors. I don't agree with the OP, but I also have my own opinion that US coins are over-priced. My solution is to dump most of my US collection to focus on other branches of numismatic that is still affordable.
It's hunch, no supportive arguement is needed. What about the thread in the precious metal forum, in which, a member also had a "hunch" about the crash of precious metals? I"m sure you'll classify that as a troll thread also?
<< <i>And GoldBully is a cool guy >>
Not in this thread
As for the subject matter, it has already happened to many modern issues. I remember the 1999 silver proof set was in the $300-350 range or more a few years back, now is actually on sale on eBay for $119. Recently, sold my Roosie dime set with 40% top pop, that was completed a few years ago, and recorded a 29% lost. Anything can happen, even for classic issues if a "huge" hoard was discovered, or it comes to a time when all of the seniors of this hobby are deceased without adding any significant number of new "serious" collectors. I don't agree with the OP, but I also have my own opinion that US coins are over-priced. My solution is to dump most of my US collection to focus on other branches of numismatic that is still affordable. >>
Bingo and thats why I got into ancients in 2009. I came back into collecting in 2008 solely focused on my u.s. type set to finish as a kid but the prices were just way too out there, plus Slabs were new to me. I ended up getting alot of the u.s. coins I needed but they are nearly all raw or problem based.
I was quickly losing interest in coins again when I found out how affordable ancients were, havent looked back since. Now I am slowly weeding out U.S. coins I dont want and putting the $ into my ancients.
But there is alot of u.s. coins I have I refuse to part with....
<< <i>To answer your question the answer is both yes and no.
Many coins have lost over 50% of their trading value in the last 2 years- while others have gained over 50% in the last 2 years. Check out the value of many St's in higher grades. Its amazing how much they have fallen.
Next look at CC $20 gold and see how much they've gone up in the last 2 years.
What really is happening is the market is demanding quality pieces.
PQ coins are going to bring strong money while non PQ wont.
As an example; yesterday at the Baltimore show I sold some exceptionally high end proof barber quarters for many % over sheet. A very ugly looking one I sold for almost 30% back of sheet >>
Now that sounds realistic.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I don't want to give the impression that all I care about is making money or "investing" in coins. There are much better investments than coins. But coins are an asset and they trade in a market so I am trying to use my knowledge about markets and apply them to coins. Buying at the right time is important. I stopped buying coins for the past years because I thought the prices would come down and they have. Will they go lower? -- that was the point of this thread. Are they low enough now for me to start buying right now? Yes. Are there "better" coins coming on the market right now? Yes. I stopped buying coins in 2006 when you couldnt even find a 1921 Peace dollar (in any condition) at our local coin show.
The cool thing about coins is that a bear market doesn't just mean that your coins are worth less. It means you can start collecting much nicer coins for less money. >>
WHAT COIN SERIES ARE YOU REFERRING TOO?
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
There is much talk about coins going up and down and how many have lost xx percent. Clearly this is an example of a "That's a clown question, bro.". Deep pockets have run to valuable coins much in the way that art has gone up significantly. The selling price of the High Relief Saint being auctioned today is a good example. Supply and demand rule the day. That is a very special coin, on the other hand the prices for the 1999 silver proof set were hyped from the beginning as the quantity produced did not make it scarce on a relative basis. Dealers did not get in on the ground floor and thus everyone was scrambling to get them out of the hands of the small time collector and it took 10 years for that to happen. Check the mintage.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
I am among those who would welcome a 50% decline in the prices of the coins I'm seeking to complete my collection of US type coins 1793-2000, and would be willing to accept a 50% decline in the values of all the coins I do own in order to be able to to obtain even a couple of the toughest early ones.
I do not think it will happen that way. Certain segments in "the coin market" may easily decline 50% or more, but I seriously doubt that 1796 quarters and half dollars in Fine will be among them.
I don't expect a major crash, as defined by the OP. In fact, frankly, I don't have any idea what the future holds for the coin market. Nobody does.
I suspect the OP knows that, but just wanted to stimulate some discussion.
But this has been an interesting thread, with responses ranging from the "Blasphemy! How dare you say such a thing!" reaction, to the fairly well-reasoned responses acknowledging that a significant decline in coin prices could happen.
One question for the masses (actually one and a follow-up): How do you think the current state of the hobby compares to the stamp collecting hobby at its peak?
If a crash can happen to stamps, or baseball cards, or any other collectible, why can't it happen to coins?
Realone,LOVE your thought process,My opinion,and was clear in the SB auction today,and all auctions that i have either consigned to or bought coins in are,PQ CAC pieces are few and far between,and folks are ready willing and able to go wild on fresh stickered PQ coins.If ts not in the top percentile of the grade,it isnt going to sell,will be around along time and appear in every auction,and could drop in price.The few PQ CAC and coins that will sticker folks are starting to buy and hold like there is no tomorrow.As Laura would say,dreck is out and down,Fresh and PQ WOW coins will bring all the money and then some.JMHO,I am just a lowly collector,who will pay big money for the right coins,and believe that i am far from being alone!
Great coins are not cheap,and cheap coins are not great!
Ha! Baseball cards... I have an album down in the basement from when i was a kid (it is a testament to that boom that I didn't even have the slightest interest in baseball)
The phrase "not worth a continental" comes to mind...
While I agree that coins are not comparable (modern clad coins are though) it is food for thought none-the-less that what is popular today may be very unpopular in the future.
So the only way to avoid the coin crash is to own cac stickered coins? Reminds me of reading one of Legends market reports (where every tenth word is CAC)
<< <i>Ha! Baseball cards... I have an album down in the basement from when i was a kid (it is a testament to that boom that I didn't even have the slightest interest in baseball)
The phrase "not worth a continental" comes to mind...
While I agree that coins are not comparable (modern clad coins are though) it is food for thought none-the-less that what is popular today may be very unpopular in the future. >>
vintage BB cards in nm-mint to mint condition bring VERY VERY VERY attractive prices. Vintage baseball cards (pre war) were generally not saved or properly cared for and are the essence of Americana. Even Individual cards from the 50's in the right condition/player can exceed 10K easy. Albums of cards sitting in the basement from post 1970 to present are indeed a tough sell will a few condition rarity and rookie exceptions. Stuff from the 80's unless gem meant 10/100 is pretty much DOA. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
1) We've already had a material drop in coin pricing, what makes you think another one is coming? 2) People are buying stickered coins and sometimes paying strong money for them. Sometimes these coins are strong for the grade. Sometimes the people buying the don't know how to grade and see the sticker as an insurance policy. 3) I wouldn't buy any coin which didn't "speak to me," and even if it did, the coin better be at a price I think is acceptable. 4) You can do as you wish, but I haven't bought anything in over a year.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>So the only way to avoid the coin crash is to own cac stickered coins? Reminds me of reading one of Legends market reports (where every tenth word is CAC) >>
What coin crash? You are stating it as a given with less then zero data other then a hunch. Quality eye appealing coins whether they are stickered or not are just not readily available and are in demand in most series. Please point us to this supply. I would like to be proven wrong. While it's a double edged sword I also wouldn't mind a pullback in the stuff I collect. I echo RYK's point in that regard.
This thread reads super funky. I'll play for now. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>
That depends on which coins you mean.
Don't expect the really big-ticket items to "crash", (other than the *appearance* of 'crashing'... in various price guides,) ...since almost none of the owners of that sort of material will be forced to sell into those ever-falling bids. It would take a multi-year decline to shake much of that loose, IMO.
(Who knows... maybe the CDN would even revive the old "Ask Sheet", ...if bids got too disconnected from reality?)
The small potatoes stuff is ALREADY crashing, BTW... ...at least if you use as a measure, the % of CDN bid that you can actually *get* from the regular wholesale buyers of such 'stuff'.
It used to be pretty easy to get 80% to even 90% of 'Monthly' bid, on the various designs of old minor coinag
Not anymore.
Before I sorted, and began selling, a big batch of Liberty Nickels I recently bought, I first tried to dump them 'en masse' to a fairly reliable buyer north of Seattle, but he didn't even make a lowball offer, he just said he "couldn't use them". And I used to get 75% of bid from him, *routinely*.
Whether it's common Morgan $'s in mid-level MS grades, or lower-end circulated type in bulk, buyers are getting pickier and some are simply not buying. >>
Segments of the low end of the market may be dying. This has happened before. Following the great coin market crash of 1964 some items essentially returned to face value. Others, such as Lincoln cents, went to sleep for the next 30 years.
My sense is that things are slowing a bit. The small collectors have really been hit hard by the economy, and we have seen some fall out in the early commemoratives and Morgan dollars are less than lusty. The same could be true for many "run of the mill" coins that are of limited interest to advanced, well healed collectors.
Still I don't see a 50% melt down in the cards. If nothing else, the fall in the real value of the dollar due to inflation is going to at least keep the nominal prices around their current levels. If things in the political world continue in their present course, a poorer economy and possible devaluation of the dollar via inflation are inevitable. The Federal Government now has a very self-serving way of measuring inflation which hides much of the pain in their understated numbers, but consumers are not going to be fooled. More than even flight from the dollar will keep precious metals and by extension quality collector coins prices afloat.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
The stickering craze is about the only thing other than bullion prices that have kept better coin prices afloat over the past 2 years.
But these too appear to be reaching their shelf life. That is, a stickered coin on average shouldn't be priced at more than say 2X more than one that is not stickered. We're already at that point in many cases. It may be a far better value to buy an unstickered coin at a 50% discount to stickered, especially if said coin is not unattractive or problematic, other than it never fully deserved the "technical" grade it once received. A market can't be healthy when all of a sudden 40% or more of slabbed coins have become "losers" because they won't sticker. And even if they do sticker, half of them will bring 20-30% less because they are in the wrong holders. Coins have always been graded or valued on a continuum. The coins today are no different than they were 10 or 20 yrs ago, only the labels on their holders. But it seems the labels and stickers are now the driving force, not the coins. It's now a market that I am no longer familiar with. It has some similarities to the rating agencies out there that state this investment is AAA and this other one is only bbb. In many cases the two items can be identical when all packaging and ratings are removed. You could see this shift coming over 5 years ago....just never thought it would get to this extreme. More than likely, we haven't seen the ultimate extremes. You can't have a true bull market in this type of environment. But it does remind me of 1990-1993 when the definition of "investment" grade coin was largely reworked to exclude more than 50% of the coins that fueled the 1987-1990 bull market. Another weeding out is occurring because once again there are just too many coins. They all can't be "investment" or "fussy-collector" grade. I understand the process, just not the way it has occurred (ie truly good/comparable coins being tossed aside because they are not holdered or stickered properly).
<< <i>The stickering craze is about the only thing other than bullion prices that have kept better coin prices afloat over the past 2 years.
But these too appear to be reaching their shelf life. That is, a stickered coin on average shouldn't be priced at more than say 2X more than one that is not stickered. We're already at that point in many cases. It may be a far better value to buy an unstickered coin at a 50% discount to stickered, especially if said coin is not unattractive or problematic, other than it never fully deserved the "technical" grade it once received. A market can't be healthy when all of a sudden 40% or more of slabbed coins have become "losers" because they won't sticker. And even if they do sticker, half of them will bring 20-30% less because they are in the wrong holders. Coins have always been graded or valued on a continuum. The coins today are no different than they were 10 or 20 yrs ago, only the labels on their holders. But it seems the labels and stickers are now the driving force, not the coins. It's now a market that I am no longer familiar with. It has some similarities to the rating agencies out there that state this investment is AAA and this other one is only bbb. In many cases the two items can be identical when all packaging and ratings are removed. You could see this shift coming over 5 years ago....just never thought it would get to this extreme. More than likely, we haven't seen the ultimate extremes. You can't have a true bull market in this type of environment. But it does remind me of 1990-1993 when the definition of "investment" grade coin was largely reworked to exclude more than 50% of the coins that fueled the 1987-1990 bull market. Another weeding out is occurring because once again there are just too many coins. They all can't be "investment" or "fussy-collector" grade. I understand the process, just not the way it has occurred (ie truly good/comparable coins being tossed aside because they are not holdered or stickered properly). >>
I see nothing wrong with the following:
NGC unstickered MS65 $1,000 NGC unstickered MS65+ $1,100 PCGS unstickered MS65 $1,200 NGC stickered MS65 $1,300 PCGS unstickered MS65+ $1,400 NGC stickered MS65+ $1,500 PCGS stickered MS65 $1,600 PCGS stickered MS65+ $1,800 NGC unstickered MS66 $2,000
and so on for other grades. Thus quality and price truly are a continuum and we are no longer seeing $100k increments from a single grade jump that may or may not be warranted.
I gather the thread was not a serious one. I would like to see a basis of the thought, if it was a serious post. Site some factors and statistics to show why one thinks a correction is near.
I myself think that classic material that is PQ and nice US type available will continue to out pace demand in the market. Try to buy any nice copper even flying eagles and common date large cents in legitimate nice for grade these are going up all the time and have more room to climb.I am no sticker fan but the market is nuts for golds and even greens have a very dedicated market base. Early walkers and standing liberty quarters are also strong there is not enough in the market and prices are heading up as far as good material. I just don't see a crash regardless of the economy.
I use to be a self proclaimed expert with predictions but have long ago converted my crystal ball to a gold fish bowl.
Comments
The cool thing about coins is that a bear market doesn't just mean that your coins are worth less. It means you can start collecting much nicer coins for less money.
<< <i>When prices drop, lots of better coins *don't* come up for sale- they go into hiding. >>
All coins eventually come up for sale unless they are in a museum, buried with their owner, or destroyed in a natural disaster.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
You can't - thats why this is a "smart hobby" vs. something like, I don't know, RC airplanes which you just end up crashing...
To be clear, there are three types of people:
1. The people that see issues and take action to correct them.
2. The people that are neutral.
3. The people that see issues and do nothing to correct the issue but like to stir the pot to see other peoples reactions.
So the troll question that was asked...
<< <i>Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices? >>
and
<< <i>Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>
Let me explain why I think this is a dumb question, then you can flame me
"Major" is a shock word with this first sentence in the opening title of the thread. This was used to bring people in to see what this "new forum member" is talking about.
We open it up and see, "50%" with no facts to back it up. Another, "Holy smokes" number.
"Curious as to what the veterans think" is jargon used to say, "The younger generation is smarter".
"Seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork", non-confirmable information to support his/her point.
Everything about this thread says troll.
______________________________________
Now to answer the question... (Hey, I could be wrong about the whole thing above).
I think no. Many collectors are born collectors, sure the lure of profit is in most of us (Since we collect coins and not used straws) but the pursuit of art and history is what propels us to collect. In a down economy the norm is usually less buying and go back to the roots of searching rolls or reading books about our favorite coins (which costs almost nothing but keeps us in the hobby). We collectors do not usually jump ship and sell our coins at a loss... Like history, we are in it for the long haul. The people that jump ship might be those that invest in bullion (Trying to grab profit before the SPOT goes below their buy price), but the coin collectors do not usually jump ship, so this will NEVER be the case, even if he is elected again... we will just go on collecting.
I know I left a lot out there but the point is... No, I do not see a "Major" crash of "50%" or more in the numismatic economy. And GoldBully is a cool guy
______________________________________
Okay, flame away.
Ray
<< <i>I've lived through a few major market corrections (1980 and 1989 were the biggest) so it's entirely possible. Time will tell if your concerns are warranted. >>
I lived through those same market corrections and agree it is possible to see another one. But, I got some of my best coins when the market was really soft. Coins move in cycles.
<< <i>In the last 10 years many coins have risen about 100% or doubled in value. Could they not go right back down? >>
In the last ten years, many coins have also lost 30-40% of their value. About which coins are you discussing?
Someone mentioned Bust $s. In AU, type is down 20% in the last 8 to 10 years. I should know; I looked at over 100 of them before buying one 18 months ago.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>All coins eventually come up for sale unless they are in a museum, buried with their owner, or destroyed in a natural disaster. >>
Of course they do. Nobody's said otherwise. All I'm saying is that if prices are falling, people are less likely to sell unless they have no other choice. Would you sell your best coins in a falling market if you didn't have to?
Eric
2013? No either.
2014? Quite possible we will see a correction of between 20-30% as the Federal Reserve begins to tighten up the money supply. This prediction will only happen when the Federal Reserve applies the necessary measure of monetary growth restraint.
It must be noted that Maurice Rosen is a guest speaker at the upcoming PCGS luncheon and Maurice is as good as they come as a economist with special knowledge of the coin and bullion markets!
<< <i>Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>
You must have missed the 2009 crash where most coin prices from from 25-40%. And if you happened to own low end coins that won't sticker, you might have to increase that to -50%. Summers are almost always weak. Though during the ANA summer show the auctions often get heated, even in down markets. In any case I think we saw the first corrective leg in 2009 and now the follow-on bounce. Portions or all of 2013-2014 will be a very difficult time for most coins as the 12, 30, 60 and 120 year economic cycles all bottom out together. This last euphoric bounce (along with stocks) could last into the fall or even spring 2013. Once it's over, don't expect a lot from rare coin prices other than the top 1-5% of coins that the big dogs buy. Most coin prices (non bullion and non-rarities) are back to 2003-2004 levels. They went up for a few years and came right back down. I don't expect a crash in prices but rather a slow grind through 2014. With the cost of living getting tighter along with paychecks, I don't see where the majority of collectors or investors will remain strong buyers. It's obvious that many have been mostly on the sidelines since 2008. No one in numismatics was around for the last 120 yr cycle bottom. What we've seen so far from 2008-2011 was just the warm-up act.
<< <i>Everything about this thread says troll. >>
It's hunch, no supportive arguement is needed. What about the thread in the precious metal forum, in which, a member also had a "hunch" about the crash of precious metals? I"m sure you'll classify that as a troll thread also?
<< <i>And GoldBully is a cool guy >>
Not in this thread
As for the subject matter, it has already happened to many modern issues. I remember the 1999 silver proof set was in the $300-350 range or more a few years back, now is actually on sale on eBay for $119. Recently, sold my Roosie dime set with 40% top pop, that was completed a few years ago, and recorded a 29% lost. Anything can happen, even for classic issues if a "huge" hoard was discovered, or it comes to a time when all of the seniors of this hobby are deceased without adding any significant number of new "serious" collectors. I don't agree with the OP, but I also have my own opinion that US coins are over-priced. My solution is to dump most of my US collection to focus on other branches of numismatic that is still affordable.
<< <i>
<< <i>Everything about this thread says troll. >>
It's hunch, no supportive arguement is needed. What about the thread in the precious metal forum, in which, a member also had a "hunch" about the crash of precious metals? I"m sure you'll classify that as a troll thread also?
<< <i>And GoldBully is a cool guy >>
Not in this thread
As for the subject matter, it has already happened to many modern issues. I remember the 1999 silver proof set was in the $300-350 range or more a few years back, now is actually on sale on eBay for $119. Recently, sold my Roosie dime set with 40% top pop, that was completed a few years ago, and recorded a 29% lost. Anything can happen, even for classic issues if a "huge" hoard was discovered, or it comes to a time when all of the seniors of this hobby are deceased without adding any significant number of new "serious" collectors. I don't agree with the OP, but I also have my own opinion that US coins are over-priced. My solution is to dump most of my US collection to focus on other branches of numismatic that is still affordable. >>
Bingo and thats why I got into ancients in 2009. I came back into collecting in 2008 solely focused on my u.s. type set to finish as a kid but the prices were just way too out there, plus Slabs were new to me. I ended up getting alot of the u.s. coins I needed but they are nearly all raw or problem based.
I was quickly losing interest in coins again when I found out how affordable ancients were, havent looked back since. Now I am slowly weeding out U.S. coins I dont want and putting the $ into my ancients.
But there is alot of u.s. coins I have I refuse to part with....
coins in the near future, but definitely not a
50% drop in prices. JMHO !!!
<< <i>To answer your question the answer is both yes and no.
Many coins have lost over 50% of their trading value in the last 2 years- while others have gained over 50% in the last 2 years.
Check out the value of many St's in higher grades. Its amazing how much they have fallen.
Next look at CC $20 gold and see how much they've gone up in the last 2 years.
What really is happening is the market is demanding quality pieces.
PQ coins are going to bring strong money while non PQ wont.
As an example; yesterday at the Baltimore show I sold some exceptionally high end proof barber quarters for many % over sheet.
A very ugly looking one I sold for almost 30% back of sheet >>
Now that sounds realistic.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I don't want to give the impression that all I care about is making money or "investing" in coins. There are much better investments than coins. But coins are an asset and they trade in a market so I am trying to use my knowledge about markets and apply them to coins. Buying at the right time is important. I stopped buying coins for the past years because I thought the prices would come down and they have. Will they go lower? -- that was the point of this thread. Are they low enough now for me to start buying right now? Yes. Are there "better" coins coming on the market right now? Yes. I stopped buying coins in 2006 when you couldnt even find a 1921 Peace dollar (in any condition) at our local coin show.
The cool thing about coins is that a bear market doesn't just mean that your coins are worth less. It means you can start collecting much nicer coins for less money. >>
WHAT COIN SERIES ARE YOU REFERRING TOO?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I do not think it will happen that way. Certain segments in "the coin market" may easily decline 50% or more, but I seriously doubt that 1796 quarters and half dollars in Fine will be among them.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
No
I suspect the OP knows that, but just wanted to stimulate some discussion.
But this has been an interesting thread, with responses ranging from the "Blasphemy! How dare you say such a thing!" reaction, to the fairly well-reasoned responses acknowledging that a significant decline in coin prices could happen.
One question for the masses (actually one and a follow-up): How do you think the current state of the hobby compares to the stamp collecting hobby at its peak?
If a crash can happen to stamps, or baseball cards, or any other collectible, why can't it happen to coins?
<< <i>when the zombie Apocalypse takes place and you're all dead, that 50% is going to seem conservative, you'll see! You'll see!
Best answer yet.
Because "this time it's different."
The phrase "not worth a continental" comes to mind...
While I agree that coins are not comparable (modern clad coins are though) it is food for thought none-the-less that what is popular today may be very unpopular in the future.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>Ha! Baseball cards... I have an album down in the basement from when i was a kid (it is a testament to that boom that I didn't even have the slightest interest in baseball)
The phrase "not worth a continental" comes to mind...
While I agree that coins are not comparable (modern clad coins are though) it is food for thought none-the-less that what is popular today may be very unpopular in the future. >>
vintage BB cards in nm-mint to mint condition bring VERY VERY VERY attractive prices. Vintage baseball cards (pre war) were generally not saved or properly cared for and are the essence of Americana. Even Individual cards from the 50's in the right condition/player can exceed 10K easy. Albums of cards sitting in the basement from post 1970 to present are indeed a tough sell will a few condition rarity and rookie exceptions. Stuff from the 80's unless gem meant 10/100 is pretty much DOA. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
2) People are buying stickered coins and sometimes paying strong money for them. Sometimes these coins are strong for the grade. Sometimes the people buying the don't know how to grade and see the sticker as an insurance policy.
3) I wouldn't buy any coin which didn't "speak to me," and even if it did, the coin better be at a price I think is acceptable.
4) You can do as you wish, but I haven't bought anything in over a year.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>So the only way to avoid the coin crash is to own cac stickered coins? Reminds me of reading one of Legends market reports (where every tenth word is CAC) >>
What coin crash? You are stating it as a given with less then zero data other then a hunch. Quality eye appealing coins whether they are stickered or not are just not readily available and are in demand in most series. Please point us to this supply. I would like to be proven wrong. While it's a double edged sword I also wouldn't mind a pullback in the stuff I collect. I echo RYK's point in that regard.
This thread reads super funky. I'll play for now. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
<< <i>Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>
That depends on which coins you mean.
Don't expect the really big-ticket items to "crash", (other than the *appearance* of 'crashing'... in various price guides,) ...since almost none of the owners of that sort of material will be forced to sell into those ever-falling bids. It would take a multi-year decline to shake much of that loose, IMO.
(Who knows... maybe the CDN would even revive the old "Ask Sheet", ...if bids got too disconnected from reality?)
The small potatoes stuff is ALREADY crashing, BTW... ...at least if you use as a measure, the % of CDN bid that you can actually *get* from the regular wholesale buyers of such 'stuff'.
It used to be pretty easy to get 80% to even 90% of 'Monthly' bid, on the various designs of old minor coinag
Not anymore.
Before I sorted, and began selling, a big batch of Liberty Nickels I recently bought, I first tried to dump them 'en masse' to a fairly reliable buyer north of Seattle, but he didn't even make a lowball offer, he just said he "couldn't use them". And I used to get 75% of bid from him, *routinely*.
Whether it's common Morgan $'s in mid-level MS grades, or lower-end circulated type in bulk, buyers are getting pickier and some are simply not buying. >>
Still I don't see a 50% melt down in the cards. If nothing else, the fall in the real value of the dollar due to inflation is going to at least keep the nominal prices around their current levels. If things in the political world continue in their present course, a poorer economy and possible devaluation of the dollar via inflation are inevitable. The Federal Government now has a very self-serving way of measuring inflation which hides much of the pain in their understated numbers, but consumers are not going to be fooled. More than even flight from the dollar will keep precious metals and by extension quality collector coins prices afloat.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
<< <i>Last time I heard "expecting", it cost me. >>
Indeed!
You are amongst permabulls, don't expect anyone to predict price declines.
However, coin collecting may see more selling over the next 20 years as the biggest collectors, boomers, retire and sell thier coins for cruises.
But these too appear to be reaching their shelf life. That is, a stickered coin on average shouldn't be priced at more than say 2X more than one that is not stickered.
We're already at that point in many cases. It may be a far better value to buy an unstickered coin at a 50% discount to stickered, especially if said coin is not unattractive
or problematic, other than it never fully deserved the "technical" grade it once received. A market can't be healthy when all of a sudden 40% or more of slabbed coins
have become "losers" because they won't sticker. And even if they do sticker, half of them will bring 20-30% less because they are in the wrong holders. Coins have
always been graded or valued on a continuum. The coins today are no different than they were 10 or 20 yrs ago, only the labels on their holders. But it seems the labels and
stickers are now the driving force, not the coins. It's now a market that I am no longer familiar with. It has some similarities to the rating agencies out there that state this
investment is AAA and this other one is only bbb. In many cases the two items can be identical when all packaging and ratings are removed. You could see this shift coming
over 5 years ago....just never thought it would get to this extreme. More than likely, we haven't seen the ultimate extremes. You can't have a true bull market in this type of
environment. But it does remind me of 1990-1993 when the definition of "investment" grade coin was largely reworked to exclude more than 50% of the coins that fueled the
1987-1990 bull market. Another weeding out is occurring because once again there are just too many coins. They all can't be "investment" or "fussy-collector" grade. I understand
the process, just not the way it has occurred (ie truly good/comparable coins being tossed aside because they are not holdered or stickered properly).
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>The stickering craze is about the only thing other than bullion prices that have kept better coin prices afloat over the past 2 years.
But these too appear to be reaching their shelf life. That is, a stickered coin on average shouldn't be priced at more than say 2X more than one that is not stickered.
We're already at that point in many cases. It may be a far better value to buy an unstickered coin at a 50% discount to stickered, especially if said coin is not unattractive
or problematic, other than it never fully deserved the "technical" grade it once received. A market can't be healthy when all of a sudden 40% or more of slabbed coins
have become "losers" because they won't sticker. And even if they do sticker, half of them will bring 20-30% less because they are in the wrong holders. Coins have
always been graded or valued on a continuum. The coins today are no different than they were 10 or 20 yrs ago, only the labels on their holders. But it seems the labels and
stickers are now the driving force, not the coins. It's now a market that I am no longer familiar with. It has some similarities to the rating agencies out there that state this
investment is AAA and this other one is only bbb. In many cases the two items can be identical when all packaging and ratings are removed. You could see this shift coming
over 5 years ago....just never thought it would get to this extreme. More than likely, we haven't seen the ultimate extremes. You can't have a true bull market in this type of
environment. But it does remind me of 1990-1993 when the definition of "investment" grade coin was largely reworked to exclude more than 50% of the coins that fueled the
1987-1990 bull market. Another weeding out is occurring because once again there are just too many coins. They all can't be "investment" or "fussy-collector" grade. I understand
the process, just not the way it has occurred (ie truly good/comparable coins being tossed aside because they are not holdered or stickered properly). >>
I see nothing wrong with the following:
NGC unstickered MS65 $1,000
NGC unstickered MS65+ $1,100
PCGS unstickered MS65 $1,200
NGC stickered MS65 $1,300
PCGS unstickered MS65+ $1,400
NGC stickered MS65+ $1,500
PCGS stickered MS65 $1,600
PCGS stickered MS65+ $1,800
NGC unstickered MS66 $2,000
and so on for other grades. Thus quality and price truly are a continuum and we are no longer seeing $100k increments from a single grade jump that may or may not be warranted.
I myself think that classic material that is PQ and nice US type available will continue to out pace demand in the market. Try to buy any nice copper even flying eagles and common date large cents in legitimate nice for grade these are going up all the time and have more room to climb.I am no sticker fan but the market is nuts for golds and even greens have a very dedicated market base. Early walkers and standing liberty quarters are also strong there is not enough in the market and prices are heading up as far as good material. I just don't see a crash regardless of the economy.
I use to be a self proclaimed expert with predictions but have long ago converted my crystal ball to a gold fish bowl.
<< <i>I myself think that classic material that is PQ and nice US type available will continue to out pace demand in the market. >>
PQ and nice according to whom?
How do you know the coins you own are PQ and nice?
Whether a coin is PQ and nice will be for the potential buyers to decide when it comes time to sell.
Also, some really nice coins have sold at auction in recent years for less (sometimes a lot less) than their consignor paid.
There are no sure things - especially in a hobby based on subjectivity.