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Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices?

Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down?
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  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread!
  • mkman123mkman123 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭
    no, any hunch on who will win the super bowl?
    Successful Buying and Selling transactions with:

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  • 2ltdjorn2ltdjorn Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭✭
    I may subscribe to this thread
    WTB... errors, New Orleans gold, and circulated 20th key date coins!
  • lasvegasteddylasvegasteddy Posts: 10,408 ✭✭✭
    i won't sell
    but let the buying beginimage
    what do you have at 50% i may be buying before the crash depending what you have???
    everything in life is but merely on loan to us by our appreciation....lose your appreciation and see


  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>i won't sell
    but let the buying beginimage
    what do you have at 50% i may be buying before the crash depending what you have??? >>



    Great post Teddy!
  • LanceNewmanOCCLanceNewmanOCC Posts: 19,999 ✭✭✭✭✭
    .
    Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices?

    not even a little
    .

    <--- look what's behind the mask! - cool link 1/NO ~ 2/NNP ~ 3/NNC ~ 4/CF ~ 5/PG ~ 6/Cert ~ 7/NGC 7a/NGC pop~ 8/NGCF ~ 9/HA archives ~ 10/PM ~ 11/NM ~ 12/ANACS cert ~ 13/ANACS pop - report fakes 1/ACEF ~ report fakes/thefts 1/NCIS - Numi-Classes SS ~ Bass ~ Transcribed Docs NNP - clashed coins - error training - V V mm styles -

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Its just a hunch i have. by crash i mean about 50% for most coins. Curious as to what the veterans think... seems like a lot of supply is coming out of the woodwork... is this just the typical summer slow down? >>

    I definitely think its possible.....the key word in your post is supply.....
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • BryceMBryceM Posts: 11,722 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Not likely, but if it happened it would be fantastic! In a couple of decades when I'm ready to cash in I'll probably feel differently.
  • BillyKingsleyBillyKingsley Posts: 2,661 ✭✭✭✭
    That would be a good thing for true collectors, bad for those who just want to make a profit and don't really care about the history.

    I don't see it happening, but it would be nice.
    Billy Kingsley ANA R-3146356 Cardboard History // Numismatic History
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Finding great coins is already tough enough. Supply is actually very low. I think prices would have to go up substantially for any of this supply to come to market. Over graded low eye appeal coins I think could keep going down. There seems to be huge supply here

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • In the last 10 years many coins have risen about 100% or doubled in value. Could they not go right back down?
  • keyman64keyman64 Posts: 15,452 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hopefully everything crashes before the show I am going to on Saturday! image
    "If it's not fun, it's not worth it." - KeyMan64
    Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners. :smile:
  • bosco5041bosco5041 Posts: 1,303
    Maybe now I can get a nice draped bust dollar for a grand. I missed them on thier way up.
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,772 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • bosco5041bosco5041 Posts: 1,303
    By the way, when someone has a hunch about something it was brought on by something in thier thought process. What gave you that hunch? Just wondering.
  • cupronikcupronik Posts: 773 ✭✭✭
    Seems to me MS-65 WL 50c are already cheaper today than they have been in a long time. Many mint state coins from 1934-64 cost less today than they did in the 1980's or 1990's. Silver commemoratives are already cheap. I personally don't see a crash to the magnitude of 50% in high grade coins. Circ coins listed in the CDN quarterlies are just beginning to be collected in certified grades and those listed prices don't reflect the real market as many of these bring significantly more.
  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,772 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I do not see an across the board major crash in coin prices in the near future. Even though the value of my holdings would drop, I would welcome the decline and view it as an opportunity to buy some coins that have left me in the dust.
  • COALPORTERCOALPORTER Posts: 2,900 ✭✭
    No. IMO, hard assests are the things to hold right now, as we may see
    mega- inflation like never before. There is a move to try to inflate our way
    out of the current government debt level and these may leave paper
    assets worth allot less image
  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I do not see an across the board major crash in coin prices in the near future. Even though the value of my holdings would drop, I would welcome the decline and view it as an opportunity to buy some coins that have left me in the dust. >>



    This. MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • COALPORTERCOALPORTER Posts: 2,900 ✭✭


    << <i>no, any hunch on who will win the super bowl? >>




    49ers !!!!!!!!!!
  • It seems like having an idea about where the market may go is pretty important. If I want to buy a nice early dollar (and I really do) then if I expect the market to decline I should wait and be patient and Rise should buy it now. Many people are bullish on things just because they own them.

    What does the heritage buyers fee (which is really a sellers fee) increase to 17.5% tell us about the "demand" for selling coins? They would not be raising the fee if they were having trouble finding consignors would they?
  • WestySteveWestySteve Posts: 567 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Seems to me MS-65 WL 50c are already cheaper today than they have been in a long time. Many mint state coins from 1934-64 cost less today than they did in the 1980's or 1990's. Silver commemoratives are already cheap. I personally don't see a crash to the magnitude of 50% in high grade coins. Circ coins listed in the CDN quarterlies are just beginning to be collected in certified grades and those listed prices don't reflect the real market as many of these bring significantly more. >>



    I can't see a big crash, but it seems that coins are going through a sort of stratification, where prices on the more common stuff is coming back down but the stuff that's hard to get is still difficult. Unless you collect the very best, problem-free coins in their original skin, you could see softening.


  • << <i>Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>



    That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. As to the OP's question, is there a certain series in particular your asking about? You say "most coins", I think it would be impossible to predict such a broad question.
  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,823 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>



    That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. As to the OP's question, is there a certain series in particular your asking about? You say "most coins", I think it would be impossible to predict such a broad question. >>



    Love your avatar.....please stay and post some more stuff.....OK? imageimageimageimageimage
  • If the Euro crashes, the dollar will gain strength, so the stock market, gold, silver and oil will pull back. I can see a short-term buying opportunity. But once everything settles down and inflation kicks in, everything will go back up. If the economy starts to slip further, more quantitative easing could send the dollar tumbling, which will translate to a higher stock market and higher commodity prices.

    Buy low, sell high. image
    Let's try not to get upset.
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 23,898 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The coin market is becoming much more selective. Rare US coins won't crash.

    Dreck and false rarities (and this includes many issues that have been heavily hoarded over the past 30 years) ... watch out. Eventually the hoarders will die and the heirs will want to cash out as quickly as possible. Most of the local hoarders I know of are quite old already.
    All glory is fleeting.
  • LochNESSLochNESS Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The coin market is becoming much more selective. Rare US coins won't crash.

    Dreck and false rarities (and this includes many issues that have been heavily hoarded over the past 30 years) ... watch out. Eventually the hoarders will die and the heirs will want to cash out as quickly as possible. Most of the local hoarders I know of are quite old already. >>



    Is "false rarities" another term for "oddball rarities" ??? I have never really understood that term. If a coin has a low mintage (under 5,000 pieces) and is high grade (PR65 or MS65 or higher) then the only factor left is demand, right? So are you suggesting that certain coins will never have any demand? making them false rarities?

    Please explain greatly appreciated thanks
    ANA LM • WBCC 429

    Amat Colligendo Focum

    Top 10FOR SALE

    image
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,301 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've lived through a few major market corrections (1980 and 1989 were the biggest) so it's entirely possible. Time will tell if your concerns are warranted.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.

  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,301 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>



    That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. >>



    I wouldn't worry about it. The new members will quickly learn who the jerks are and learn to ignore them.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.

  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 23,898 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>The coin market is becoming much more selective. Rare US coins won't crash.

    Dreck and false rarities (and this includes many issues that have been heavily hoarded over the past 30 years) ... watch out. Eventually the hoarders will die and the heirs will want to cash out as quickly as possible. Most of the local hoarders I know of are quite old already. >>



    Is "false rarities" another term for "oddball rarities" ??? I have never really understood that term. If a coin has a low mintage (under 5,000 pieces) and is high grade (PR65 or MS65 or higher) then the only factor left is demand, right? So are you suggesting that certain coins will never have any demand? making them false rarities?

    Please explain greatly appreciated thanks >>



    Very few US coins are actually rare. Popular, yes, rare, no. Hoarding of so-called key and semi-key dates and even high grade common dates of things like Seated and Barber coinage has been going on for years but seems to have really picked up in the 1980's and continued to the present. The collector population is aging. The hoarder population is aging. I have suspected for quite some time that the quantity of hoarded "rare" coins is much larger than most realize. Will there be enough collectors in the future to absorb the hoards once they hit the market?
    All glory is fleeting.
  • lcoopielcoopie Posts: 8,692 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have a hunch prices will go up
    LCoopie = Les
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    The real threat to U.S. coin values is the demographic of the collector base. The brilliance of David Hall was to recognize the need to turn coins into fungible assets suitable for sight-unseen exchange coincident with the rise in popularity of the Internet. As the population of US collectors dies off, the investor market will survive to the extent that coins can be seen as tangible investments. The interesting thing will be to understand the valuation minus a robust collector base.

    However, it is always worth remembering that coin values DO occasionally correct, particularly when investors overwhelm collectors in the market.

    image
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • JJMJJM Posts: 7,973 ✭✭✭✭✭
    gold is up $25 already today and the US market isnt even open yet.....
    shoulda bought a widget yesterday...........image
    👍BST's erickso1,cone10,MICHAELDIXON,TennesseeDave,p8nt,jmdm1194,RWW,robkool,Ahrensdad,Timbuk3,Downtown1974,bigjpst,mustanggt,Yorkshireman,idratherbgardening,SurfinxHI,derryb,masscrew,Walkerguy21D,MJ1927,sniocsu,Coll3tor,doubleeagle07,luciobar1980,PerryHall,SNMAM,mbcoin,liefgold,keyman64,maprince230,TorinoCobra71,RB1026,Weiss,LukeMarshall,Wingsrule,Silveryfire, pointfivezero,IKE1964,AL410, Tdec1000, AnkurJ,guitarwes,Type2,Bp777,jfoot113,JWP,mattniss,dantheman984,jclovescoins,Collectorcoins,Weather11am,Namvet69,kansasman,Bruce7789,ADG,Larrob37
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 30,977 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>My crystal ball is a bit cloudy, but I do not see an across the board major crash in coin prices in the near future. Even though the value of my holdings would drop, I would welcome the decline and view it as an opportunity to buy some coins that have left me in the dust. >>



    Not all coin prices will crash to the same degree. Sell yer wijjetz and buy em back later at half price or less.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If this was asked when silver was near $50 and gold was over $1900, I would say "yes". I'd expect a crash.
    But a year later with silver at $27 and gold at $1500, I'd say "no".
    I'm not sure what a "correction" is, actually.
  • yellowkidyellowkid Posts: 5,486


    << <i>.
    Anyone else expecting a major crash in coin prices?

    not even a little
    . >>

    image
  • CommemDudeCommemDude Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would have said the coin market is strong but suddenly I am seeing the best commem sets either sold or retired from the registry, making me wonder if the colored coin bubble is about to burst?
    Dr Mikey
    Commems and Early Type
  • goldengolden Posts: 9,018 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Finding great coins is already tough enough. Supply is actually very low. I think prices would have to go up substantially for any of this supply to come to market. Over graded low eye appeal coins I think could keep going down. There seems to be huge supply here

    MJ >>

    image
  • erickso1erickso1 Posts: 1,705 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I would have said the coin market is strong but suddenly I am seeing the best commem sets either sold or retired from the registry, making me wonder if the colored coin bubble is about to burst? >>



    I hope the colored coin market bursts. (eyeing commemdudes avatar)

    Just kidding! (secretly eyeing the avatar)

    image Honestly though, if the colored coin bubble bursts, and prices fall, and a shift is made to white coins, I would imagine the population of attractivlely toned coins in my series would fall as they are cracked, dipped and reholdered, thus lowering the population of original toned coins. Which is fine by me.

    My views may be unrealistic, short sighted and purely hypothetical, but as others have mentioned, I'd welcome a crash/drop in prices.
  • ambro51ambro51 Posts: 13,580 ✭✭✭✭✭
    YA KNOW.....thread titles like this remind me of how shorts try and kill stock on the Yahoo Finance forums. hmmm. Welcome aboard Coinbot you will find amazingly astute and perceptive members here. Let me say one thing about all the coin collectors dying off and the hobby evaporating. BULL %#]+. All those rare coins you hold NOW were once held be living collectors who later became dead. Now YOU are living and holding those coins waiting till YOU die and then someone else will repeat the process.
  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,450 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>



    That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. As to the OP's question, is there a certain series in particular your asking about? You say "most coins", I think it would be impossible to predict such a broad question. >>



    Love your avatar.....please stay and post some more stuff.....OK? imageimageimageimageimage >>



    GB or Joker what is that coin in Joker's avatar? that's a pretty bad ass design.
    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • joebb21joebb21 Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭✭✭
    To answer your question the answer is both yes and no.

    Many coins have lost over 50% of their trading value in the last 2 years- while others have gained over 50% in the last 2 years.
    Check out the value of many St's in higher grades. Its amazing how much they have fallen.

    Next look at CC $20 gold and see how much they've gone up in the last 2 years.

    What really is happening is the market is demanding quality pieces.

    PQ coins are going to bring strong money while non PQ wont.

    As an example; yesterday at the Baltimore show I sold some exceptionally high end proof barber quarters for many % over sheet.
    A very ugly looking one I sold for almost 30% back of sheet
    may the fonz be with you...always...
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My nephew listed an 1878 Indian Head Cent on eBay. With auctions like that, the bottom is guaranteed.
  • djmdjm Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Bear has started to stir. The prices of common date morgan dollars are dropping. The gold bugs are hanging on to the possible QE3 to keep gold prices up even thjough they are finding more gold than is being consumed. Now is not the time to be buying or selling. Sellers have missed the top. Buyers can wait for the prices to soften even more.
  • rheddenrhedden Posts: 6,567 ✭✭✭✭✭
    We've been having threads like this since 2003 when I joined the forum. The sky was not falling then, and it still isn't.

    The only thing that could cause this kind of catastrophe in rare coins would be if some sort of draconian tax laws were passed that devastated the rare coin trade and put dealers out of business. If you think that's possible, then you have reason to worry.

  • pocketpiececommemspocketpiececommems Posts: 5,723 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Expect a crash in prices for most any coins you by from the "Shop at Home" programs the day after you buy them.image
  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,823 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Do you need attention?? What a stupid thread! >>



    That's a heck of a reply. Being a new member I can see why many lurkurs are apprehensive about posting. >>



    I wouldn't worry about it. The new members will quickly learn who the jerks are and learn to ignore them. >>



    Maybe I should title my avatar, "Jerk."
  • shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,445 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You say "all coins", then comment on a nice bust dollar. Comments in the thread indicate that many low-end coins that people have been buying for the past # of years have already fallen by maybe 50% or even more...nice bust dollars aren't in that category. I bought a bunch of nice bust dollars in the 80's when they were $1,000 each, but I had to sell them...now I'd have to sell my house to replace half of them.
    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC

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