Classic Commems still cascading
mrcommem
Posts: 1,168 ✭✭✭✭
I assembled a 50-piece type set of classic commems back in 1996-1998. Back then the price of the coins seemed very reasonable and had wanted a set since I was a boy back in 1965. I have noticed the up and down swing of this series, especially when they were high in 2008 and now they are lower than when I bought many of them in 1998. The only coins that have gone up for me in the last few years is some very rare Dahlonega Half Eagles. It seems that the market is dead for not only these coins but for most US coins in general. What has happened to the hobby? Do you think the new tax bill will allow some of us to buy some new coins?
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Commems have not done well in quite a long time...I am also a collector of them and am under water on a lot of my collection. But I do enjoy them quite a bit and honestly the dropping prices have allowed me to upgrade some of them.
About 'Do you think the new tax bill will allow some of us to buy some new coins?'...depends on your situation! The increases that have been published for most folks only seem to be in hundreds of dollars and that will by some coins for collectors, but most should use the money to reduce personal debt. Sadly the windfall for most folks will be used to buy TV's, not anything of lasting value IMO.
All that we need is the commem market is a well managed promotion!
K
There has always been an inclination that commems will surge.
Someday.
Commems are, however, constant reminders of the variety and beauty in coin collecting.
Just think how boring set collecting would be if all coins in ALL sets were similar.
Collecting Commems adds many dimensions to the collecting experience that other series do not offer.
Commem collectors enjoy learning the history and diagnostics of many, many coins within one set.
It’s a unique joy in numismatics.
With that in mind, the ebb and flow of value becomes secondary to the enjoyment of collecting, as I’m sure most would agree.
It is unfortunate that sometimes commems underpreform expectations but, they are fun, and that’s what it’s all about!
There are two new young guys coming into the high end toned part of the market. Believe it or not it will help that segment. There aren't as many players in that end of the pool anymore.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm underwater on many/most as well, but I'm actually waiting/watching for prices to fall on a couple of upgrades.
Maybe if the mint cranks out more new commem coins that will help the classic commem market.
I have slowly been trying to put together a mid-grade set with toning or PL and am having a hard time finding coins I really like. There are a ton of them on the market, but very few stand out from the rest.
My name is Bob, and I'm a classic commemorative coin collector
@Outhaul Ditto!
These are great coins with interesting histories and often great designs. But except for a few issues there are a million of them! Ok, so not really a million, but any number available at any given time. That will make it hard for prices to go up except for the most colorfully toned ones.
I enjoy trying to find ones that fit the aesthetic I am looking for at a reasonable cost - which is pretty doable for almost all of them. But, it usually means I have to sort through MANY unexciting coins, often higher grade, which I think are unlikely to ever increase in value. This excess inventory is going to keep costs down for a loooong time...
Here's one I like. PCGS 63 (Rattler).
My current "Box of 20"
A. Made for collectors
B. High survival rate
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Say what
I took a bath when I sold my 50 piece set earlier this year. Its kind of a relief though. There are many coins in the set that are somewhat undesirable. Holding those coins was hard. Now I have bought a few commems that I love. I will never stop collecting them for all of the same reasons stated above. At least I don't have to sweat anymore watching my set decrease in value day after day hoping for that rise.
What has happened to the hobby?
I hope it does not get as bad as stamps during my lifetime.
This series is a shame. Every time I think it is at a low point, some fugly pieces come around-and everything gets cheaper.
Unless you are prepared to build a really gem toned set, no matter how cheap these seem, stay away!
from
kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
from
https://pcgs.com/prices/frame.aspx?type=coinindex&filename=slvgld
Conclusion: Commem prices are nearly uncorrelated with silver and gold bullion prices; so the commem price changes must be due to some demand factors.
You bought near the low point in 1996-98, it peaked in 2006, and in 2014 it dropped below your buy point.
I built my 50 piece commemative set about the same time as you did, mrcommem. I was a dealer at the time and bought a lot of them at the Gray Sheet prices or less. I set aside properly graded pieces, but only one of them was a "toner." Today my set is underwater despite the fact that I paid wholesale prices for it.
Much of the market for "stuff," coins that are not unusually rare or distinctive, is down because the collectors who supported that segment have stopped buying or have left the all together with no new replacements coming on to replace them. I don't know if these coins will recover. The younger generation does not seem to be interested, and in the case of the "old commematives" the supply is ample because collectors of generations past preserved them.
I wish I could be more optimistic.
The tax bill will help only if the upper 1% decides to buy coins.
l
It's not having what you want, it's wanting what you've got.
This is all good news to me as I wanted to start picking a few up. Sorry that the good deals are at others' expense.
Makes me wonder what the future holds for modern commems. I guess they'll be spending money. Might be tough to get the baseball HOF half dollars into the Coinstar machine.
Sure, for Booker T. Washington...
The total mintage of Alabama is 59,000 and 6,000. Missouri 15,000 and 5,000. Vancouver 15,000 etc.
The survival rate of 100% for a coin with a mintage of 6,000 still leaves fewer examples than S-VDB cents or 16-D dimes.
There simply aren't enough commemorative collectors. Period. The coins didn't get more common in the last 10 years. The number of people collecting them shrank.
I've been knocking around the idea of getting a nice MS65 or better Hawaiian. Would that be a good idea or would it too keep sliding downhill? Good thing I work so much or I'd be buying more instead of just daydreaming.
Canary in a coal mine. What if?
I'm surprised no one has mentioned the internet. Couldn't that play a part in the decline of these commemorative coin prices? I mean the internet has made it much easier to locate and purchase coins like this, has it not? And thus, if there was any notion of exclusivity and difficulty to find with these coins, the internet has obliterated that completely. In my relatively notice opinion on the subject of the internet, it seems that basically anything not super rare or super cool is suffering in price thanks to the internet.
Probably has nothing to do with silver prices, gold prices, the economy, or anything else such as grade inflation. It could just be the internet.
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I like classic commems. Here's one I bid on but didn't win a few months ago:
PCGS price guide: $1,150.00
Sold for: $3,995.00
Please do try. My five-year old Coinstar assistant will be thrilled to find one in the reject slot.
What?!? Even COINSTAR doesn't want them!?!
At one time commems tracked the overall coin market and moved along with it. For some reason, they are now doing worse than the market overall, which is itself weakening. I hoped this was a normal rotation (remember how long early type was in the dog house before breaking out about 15 years ago?) but I don't see enough new buyers to increase the demand for commems and most generic coins in general.
Commems and Early Type
The internet has exposed just how common these commemoratives are.
The collector base that thought these early NCLT issues were cool is aging.
New money is not interested in tying itself up in collector coins that have been trending downward for many years.
Over the years there have been too many promotions and too many rollercoaster ups and downs with these coins. Most everyone who has bought these coins since the late 1980s have lost money on them. The only exceptions have been the pieces with exceptionally nice, natural toning. Collectors and the investment – speculators have simply been burned too many times by these coins and now they see the light.
My complete 50 piece set is on the NGC registry. The coins grade from MS-63 to MS-66. The currently I am # 67 in the rankings over there. It just shows how common these coins are.
I have a group of commemoratives... selected for the states I have lived in... I do not care about the value... I am not a dealer, so that aspect of the hobby does not bother me. I do not care if they are worth nothing... to me, they have significance. Frankly, I do not care if all my coins are worthless on the market... that is not why I collect coins. For those in the 'business', well, sorry... the malls are dying too.... I enjoy my coins ... Cheers, RickO
Unless you are prepared to build a really gem toned set, no matter how cheap these seem, stay away!
this may be the definitive post for this series and one of the primary reason why mid-grade MS pieces don't plummet. they are just too abundant in grades from MS63-65 to ever buy in a hurry. shop around till you find a price that makes sense.
I will now speak heresy and say that I also feel the mundane designs and rather poor execution on a lot of the issues leaves them uninspiring to the vast majority of collectors. don't get me wrong, I find some of the designs very elegant and well executed, but way too many appear as sad medals in a low relief. it isn't surprising since many of the celebrations meant a rush to production and at a certain point, perhaps around 1926-1930, the promoters began to move in and took things over.
more heresy, I actually find some of the Modern Commemorative Dollar designs to be much more aesthetically pleasing than the bulk of the So-Called Classic designs. further, the length of the series of 60 years and the fact that they cover a variety of subjects across the Nation don't give collectors much incentive. maybe you can collect by theme or a topic you like, but the breadth of a 50/144 pc. set and the topics it covers probably doesn't encourage anyone to plop down $15-20k for a white set of MS63 coins.
pick what you like and then watch this forum, the topic will come up another 5-10 times during 2018 by another "investor" wondering when he will be flush again. this is the time to patiently buy, I think I pick up 1-2 coins a year from the events I like and pass on the rest.
one parting thought, I think the Oregon Trail and Stone Mountain pieces keep the whole series above water.
For a long time I tried hard to ignore classic commems as I generally don’t like things that were “made for collectors.” The market seemed to be on an eternal downward slide and enthusiasm for many of them is pretty weak.
However, I really do like some of the designs and I learned that a not-so-distant relative was the designer of the Pilgrim...... so I settled on a plan to do a box of 20. This is big enough to include all of my favorites and small enough to avoid slogging through the ones I don’t like. I also decided to avoid, as much as possible, coins without character. Blah, white MS63 commems do nothing for me.
In a market where prices would not otherwise rise or fall, gradeflation would cause prices to fall.
(An example using grade 65 no pluses.)
In time, the best 65s move up to 66, and the best 64s move up to 65, and the average quality of the 65 pool decreases causing prices to fall.
Is this part of the problem?
Be sure to get a Norfolk, it has a lot to say for itself.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Bruce had a nice set, RIP brother...
https://pcgs.com/SetRegistry/alltimeset/39188
Agree and confusion as to who the top tier grader is, CAC or PCGS.
I think that the price declines are due to several factors:
Maybe someone could chime in here, but wasn't this series also overbought and then dumped when Wall Street did the coin funds and then just dumped them on the market?
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
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@Overdate
Like this one?
It does have a lot to say for itself. In fact, almost the entire thing is covered in text:
That's what I meant. The word "Norfolk" appears in three different places, which is kind of overkill.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Reflects lower population of collectors / retail buyers. The slide may intensify.
This market area one of my favorites.
I never noticed that before.
You are right -- ridiculous.
My first Commem. The Norfolk is the only commem with five different dates.
I still think eye appealing gem commems in OGH’s are very buyable and sellable in today’s market.
Freshly graded white coins in any grade are very tough with no light at the end of that tunnel
Latin American Collection
Many prefer brilliant / white coins and consider these PQ and the toners trash.
Darker toners - will tarnish even darker over time. Buyer beware.
Commem Pcgs index has dropped 33.6 pct? since 2014 - am looking for good buys between blue / gray must have nice Luster no spots or unattractive toning. Classic Commems the most interesting sector imo - collector pop drop off culprit in my view.
Perhaps time to buy is now.
There has certainly been gradeflation - a couple years back I sold another member here 4 really nice classic commems, all PCGS CAC 65s and 66s in OGHs. He resubmitted them & they all upgraded 1 or 1-1/2 grades. I don't think that's the issue though. Physical money is moving toward obsolescence, especially for young people. I'll bet 90% of the people I see browsing at shows are at "senior citizens". The new blood just isn't coming into the hobby to sustain demand. I also feel that the amount of money available for discretionary spending is down significantly. The American standard of living has been maintained with debt, which just kicks the can down the road. Seven year car loans. Any meaningful increase in the cost of debt; i.e., interest rates, will be a very substantial blow to the economy. When it happens, an even larger chunk of income will be absorbed by debt service. The really big-ticket items will continue to do OK, but I don't think most of us will ever see the market become what it was. The demand jus isn't out there, and isn't likely to be anytime soon.
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Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Here's some recent pickups of mine. I'm not typically into commems but nicely toned ones are an exception...
I thank everyone for the comments and great photos of their coins. When I first competed the 50 commem type set in 1998 the PCGS Registry was in its infancy. The Registry back then was published in a large booklet distributed by PCGS. When I submitted my set some were in NGC holders and some were PCGS. PCGS took all 50 coins and regraded them, crossed all the NGC coins in the set, and put them all in consecutive holders with the pedigree "Overland Trail Collection", and they did it all for free. It was the first Classic Commemorative 50-Piece Type Set and the number one set, but only for a short time. The Registry was published in booklet in 98 and 99 and maybe 2000. After that the sets were submitted on-line by the collectors and went viral. That first set was graded somewhere around MS 64.4, but many of the original coins of that set have upgraded or were sold off and replaced by better coins. The set is now MS65.2 and ranks somewhere around 23 to 27. It seems to stay at that rank as some sets are added or some retired or broken-up. I am pretty satisfied with set as only three coins are below MS65, the Lafayette at 64.5, the Sesquicentennial at 64.5 and the Albany at 64.5. Most of the coins are lightly toned with the later issues white or very lightly toned. I wanted a set since I saw them at the back of the Redbook when I was a boy back in mid-sixties and have no reason to sell them.
Overland Trail Collection Showcase
Dahlonega Type Set-2008 PCGS Best Exhibited Set
Now I’m really tempted to start on a 52 peice set.. ms63 to 65 would be really affordable and I’d enjoy the coins not as an investment but just to have them.
Most people collect something that they have an emotional tie to. For most anyone not at social security age, these coins were always novelties in a dealer's case, not something ever encountered in a quasi daily environment.
Then the internet showed that is was not a challenge to collect, just a checkbook.
Could some of the lack of interest be attributed to a lack of identifying with the subject matter on the old comm. pieces by the younger millennial types? Possibly, if a comm. coin had Steve Jobs on one side and the IPhone on the other, that would be a coin that group could identify with/purchase/collect. Placing examples/items on new comms. that the current younger generation can ID with.
I thought the standard classic silver commemorative type set was 50 coins?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
A year or two ago, I started building a 144 piece set because I like the coins and they seemed so cheap. But when I actually started buying the coins, I found that anything I liked enough to buy - for most issues, it would take a PCGS CAC 67 - was still expensive and not a bargain. The only things that were actually cheap were the coins I wouldn't want to collect, i.e., most of them. So I quit after buying about 15-20 coins. That said, collectors with a less critical eye for quality should have a field day with the series. At some point, I would not be surprised to see tremendous demand from overseas buyers. Remember, most Chinese collectors have never seen a Norfolk.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
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