I'm not a fan of this series but I want to voice a couple parameters I don't think you are considering.
1. The price of gold has changed a lot over the series between 2007 and now. When the 2007 or 2009 or 2014 even spouse coins came out, gold was not priced where it is today and was in some cases very different.
2. Lost potential in holding these as opposed to the SPY. Since mid 08 the stock market has gone up unprecedently and the price of money has changed.
Just because someone put $61k into the series doesn't mean too much. Gotta account for lost gains in that huge stock market run up. As well as large swings in the price of gold since 8 years ago.
Just things I would consider.
Would be interesting to calculate what you'd have to sell for to break even on the series compared to investing in the SPY.
While I do agree with the analysis, the point you are trying to make as to why these were not a great investment also runs true to all other investments, including whatever series you may or may not collect. From my perspective almost all collector coins are down over the same period of time, including submissions/revenues for our host.
But lets just have fun with your logic. The S&P500 is up 53% from 2007 to current. Without doing the hard math, many of the coins purchased in 2007-2009 are probably up this much or close to it. The recent years are what would be dragging down the gains. Remember the 2007 coins had mint issue prices in the $400 range. Currently they are being offered for over 100% that figure in the $850 range.
What I get for the S&P return with dividends reinvested (which seems the appropriate comparison for the First Spouse since otherwise your calculation would ignore the dividends paid by stocks) is a 98.18% return since July 2008. I got this return from here: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ I think your return of 53% ignores the dividends and definitely does not reinvest them.
Of course, if you really wanted to compare returns, you'd 1) need to invest the same amount in the S&P as when you purchased the first spouse coin, and 2) take account of the taxes that must be paid on the stock dividends. It might be interesting for about 1 minute to see the comparison and would probably take a bunch of hours to calculate, so it hardly seems worth the effort.
I still wish the mint had not canceled the first spouse subscriptions because I would probably have wound up with a complete set...
Exactly Mark, I didnt want to do hours worth of calculations and wanted to ballpark it. FWIW, I HIGHLY doubt that many would have the stomach to have been buying stocks in 2008 when they just saw their first round of money drop 50%+ in value. They would also probably not have bought during the run up in early/mid 2009 and probably would end up piling on the trade towards the middle or end of 2010. Regardless, if we used the 93% number, some of the early spouses are up that much currently. As I said before, its the most recent three or so years that have caused some pain and suffering and dismal return.
The gold I bought in 2005, 2006, 2007 and even 2008 ... Man is that providing me a great return! I'm not an insider on Wall Street. No way I can match the returns of this gold pile myself.
The gold I bought thereafter. (Including spouse coins).. So, so depending upon when I bought it. Same as my AAPL stock. The shares I bought at around $60/share (pre 7/1 split) are doing great (especially with my dividend reinvestment). The shares I bought at $115- not so great at this moment.
Just my two cents,
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
So, to revisit a topic that's been raised, do people really think the proofs will end up being more collectable/valuable? Will their added attractiveness outweigh their higher mintages? Unless I've missed something, this hasn't happened for other Modern gold coins released in both finishes, so I'm curious why some think that may be the case now...
Several of the proof populations in PR70 and especially in FS holders are lower than the uncirculated coins. This seems to be putting an extra premium and demand on some of the proofs, in addition to their better appearance, and in spite of their higher mintages.
Originally posted by: Goldminers Several of the proof populations in PR70 and especially in FS holders are lower than the uncirculated coins. This seems to be putting an extra premium and demand on some of the proofs, in addition to their better appearance, and in spite of their higher mintages.
Goldminer, this assumes they have all been sent in for grading and/or opened. I think there may still be a lot of still sealed first strike eligible gold spouses in both unc/proof out there..
It doesn't have to actually "make sense". In fact a lot of things these days don't make sense to me at all.
However, real people are paying more for them because they want to have only First Strikes and in some dates there are less than 80 total coins available in PR70 FS. That really limits supply and as a result those coins sell for higher prices. In this case, I do believe a set of these in First Strikes in PR70 will always sell for more than a set that has mostly regular strikes.
I certainly agree there are some sealed boxes out there for sure and the FS pops will go up some just like all modern pops do. However no matter what, these are low mintage and low pops especially in FS. Also NGC early releases can't be crossed over to FS at PCGS either. Lots of sealed boxes will have 69's. I can tell you that from a lot of experience sending dozens of mine in, only to be disappointed.
This was sort of my point in the beginning with asking the question of proofs being more desirable than the mint state coins. I personally prefer the look of the mint state coins over the proofs, but I can understand a collector preference for the proofs as shown by their higher mintage figures.
However, if this series is generally unloved for most of their designs, it would seem that at some point the true value would be retained in rarity (small mintage) regardless of proof or mint state designations or finishes. In other words, the value would follow the lowest mintage numbers and potentially give the mint state versions a long term bump.
Perhaps not, just some speculation and guesstimates on what will add value many years down the line.
Ultimately I agree mintage (or coins actually remaining after many of them were melted) does possibly matter to some degree in the long term. However, right now you can buy a half ounce gold Betty Ford in mint state with the lowest key mintage of less than 1,200 currently for only $845 directly from the Mint. Probably several hundred more will sell before year end but it will still be real low.
A Louisa Adams proof in PR70 with an initial mint price of $619.95 and a mintage about 5 times as much at 6,581 in PR70 FS sells for a lot more.
If anyone here really hates first spouses and first strike labels and has one of these Louisa's or a Margaret Taylor in PR70 FS they really want to get rid of, I will gladly trade you two of the lowest mintage Betty Ford uncirculated coins or buy it for $2,000 right away. Cheers.
And, why do I say that ... because the last time Heritage auctioned that particular coin (about 3-4 years ago) I won it. And, well beneath my max bid I am proud to say (which is now hidden to keep things "fair")!
LAST MARGARET TAYLOR PR70FS SOLD AT HERITAGE:
"You won this lot for $2,200.00 ($2,585.00 w/Buyer's Premium), with a secret maximum bid of... FIGURE REMOVED BY ME "
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I can assure you that I agree it will sell for more, and yes I know there is a $2,000 bid already, and now someone just played with a trivial $1100. August 14 is a long time away and these will get bid up a lot. The low pop keys for sure.
Goldminers ... That is exactly why I wanted this board to see what really happens with PCGS graded FIRST STRIKE low mintage coins that come up for auction in a super quality collection like this long time board member put together. No hype, no wild reserves (no reserves at all in fact) - just (finally) a closed set of scarce US Modern gold Commems in PCGS holders and all with 'First Strike" designations. It doesn't get any better than that!!
As always, just my two cents.
Wondercoin
edited to add ... yes, in the last half hour the bid did jump from $240 to $1,100. With about 22 (long) days to go!
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I am looking at about 10 of these in this auction fairly closely. I also like the fact that most are above average 70 quality (probably because you were involved) . Note that yes coins can grade PCGS PR70, but regardless, some look better than others, or don't have spots, haze, etc. Proof 70's need to look really good to me or I don't bother.
I probably underestimated where this set will sell, because I may have underestimated what I might ultimately pay for the 10 I don't have. LOL
Thank you for the compliment Goldminers, but the compliment is deserved by the owner of the set who was meticulous in his work to build a world class quality set of these coins. And, yes, not all 70's are created equal. In fact, every 70 I get in, my son Justin and I rank from a "1 to 10" in quality for the grade. And, that does not even include the depth of cameo which is an entirely different analysis. It generally takes about 10 or 15 seconds to properly rank the 70 grade coins - those who suggest one can not tell the difference between a 69 and 70 grade should offer to buy Justin a nice dinner and a couple craft beers and ask him to show you the ten "shades of perfection"
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The difference between the lowest minted coin E. Roosevelt at 1886 and a lot of the rest of the later coins in the series are only 100-300 coins. No one is talking about Lucy or Lucretia much any more but the uncs are both under 2,200 coins and they seem like a heck of a bargain raw or problem free MS69.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
The mintages numbers below are last week vs this week for each coin. The last number is the number coins changed from the previous week. For example the new Nancy has sold more 1,291 than the older Betty Ford Unc. 1,179 which may be the key eventually?
A lot of comments seem to be indicating older coins have low mintages when really the new ones are lowest to date. There are not many US coins with mintages less than 2,000, but these are available.
While Im excited to see what a full set of first strike 70s go for, ultimately, I don't think any serious collector could go wrong owning any coin with a sub 2000 mintage. Label or not, as long as the coin is pleasing to the eye, you will have a monster coin that will be worth some serious money over the medium to long term.
FWIW, my guess for the queen of the series is Ford.
Originally posted by: OperationButter While Im excited to see what a full set of first strike 70s go for, ultimately, I don't think any serious collector could go wrong owning any coin with a sub 2000 mintage.
Or a proof with a sub-2500 mintage. I think proofs will continue to experience higher collector demand than uncs.
While Im excited to see what a full set of first strike 70s go for, ultimately, I don't think any serious collector could go wrong owning any coin with a sub 2000 mintage.
Or a proof with a sub-2500 mintage. I think proofs will continue to experience higher collector demand than uncs.
I'm not sure a precise cutoff of 2,500 mintage will control. But, agreed that there will be many sought after coins down the road. FS 70's as well as non- FS.
This low PCGS pop FS M. Taylor has now been bid up to $2,000 hammer already with nearly 3 weeks to auction time! That coin is available generally at less than half that price in 70 grade without FS. "First Strike" - "it's what collectors want" and obviously pay up for even though, as we all know, it is just a "label".
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I never understood the whole first strike label concept, but I respect that the market is willing to bear higher prices for it. While I am not one to pay it, it sure will be fun to see how these perform.
Mitch can you provide a link to the coin you are talking about?
When you need to cut the (big) checks to the colleges to pay for your two kids education, you unfortunately don't have the luxury to hold the set 5 more years.
Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I just noticed this thread after being away for a while. Wondercoin, thanks for bringing up the fact of the sale for an entire set next month! I will be interested to see what it brings. I do have a couple of comments, re: First Spouse coins
What DOES fascinate me is the fact that First Strike brings any premium at all of these coins. All first strike means is they went out in the first month. The entire run is coined at the same time, thus the reality that it is where in the "pile" of inventory the coin you get comes from in terms of relation to a true first strike. This is especially true for the later runs.
The drop in popularity clearly came from the Great Recession that drove the price of stock down and the price of gold up. Thus, people had less disposable income for non essentials like gold coins, while the price of gold was going through the roof. Once the momentum was killed, then it became a bullion program.
As one who watched the Mint's marketing of precious metal into the numismatic markets in the mid 2000's from the inside, it is all about who was running the show in Sales and Marketing at the Mint. One individual truly understood the numismatic market as the Deputy Directory, however, he left due to some other issues and was never replaced by a knowledgable numismatic professional. Lots of paper shufflers, but none with true knowledge of the hobby. Thus, many poor decisions were made and the complete lack of focus continued for years. I always thought if funny that the most knowledgeable people at the Mint in terms of numismatics and the market worked in IT and Accounting. Go figure.
My long term view is that the First Spouse coins will be the gold equivalent to three cent nickels in terms of collector interest. There will always be a few who look to collect, but prices will remain depressed due to lack of overall demand. I may still go back and acquire a set of the Liberty First Spouse coins as that subset always appealed to me.
Thanks again Mitch for all your work and research on this topic. It helps keep some of the lesser lights alive and that is good for numismatics.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Your bewilderment with the First Strike label premiums is not isolated. Many ponder the same thing. Hence, my bringing attention to this auction where you have a complete collection of First Strikes. I understand nearly all or most of these coins were purchased by the owner of the set contemporaneous with the release of the spouse. So, it will be fairly easy to determine just how much the FS label helped this collectors' results.
Why do people pay up for a name brand when Costco (purportedly) carries the same quality under its Kirkland brand? What is it about PCGS' FS brand that has super knowledgeable numismatic collectors and dealers paying up for that as well?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
What is it about PCGS' FS brand that has super knowledgeable numismatic collectors and dealers paying up for that as well?
Wondercoin
Currently, people love to buy the label. The dealers are depending on it. Will the label continue to be more important than the coin? I guess time will tell.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
Originally posted by: wondercoin Why do people pay up for a name brand when Costco (purportedly) carries the same quality under its Kirkland brand? What is it about PCGS' FS brand that has super knowledgeable numismatic collectors and dealers paying up for that as well?
Wondercoin
You answered your own question with the word "brand".
OLC... Just like this auction of the very first set of First Strike Flag coins will determine the value of the First Strike Flag set, the same would have to happen with an autographed insert collection. Perhaps one day, that event will also take place and we will know. Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Unlike three cent nickels, however, if there really is no interest, prices will remain flat and melting will continue. It seems to me that even the slightest interest from China could really drive up these prices.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
This has been an interesting thread. I didn't realize Spouse Coins have been with us since 2007 as it seemed like it was just yesterday when they were being minted. Maybe the Mint blew it by not using Jefferson's common-law wife.
Comments
I'm not a fan of this series but I want to voice a couple parameters I don't think you are considering.
1. The price of gold has changed a lot over the series between 2007 and now. When the 2007 or 2009 or 2014 even spouse coins came out, gold was not priced where it is today and was in some cases very different.
2. Lost potential in holding these as opposed to the SPY. Since mid 08 the stock market has gone up unprecedently and the price of money has changed.
Just because someone put $61k into the series doesn't mean too much. Gotta account for lost gains in that huge stock market run up. As well as large swings in the price of gold since 8 years ago.
Just things I would consider.
Would be interesting to calculate what you'd have to sell for to break even on the series compared to investing in the SPY.
While I do agree with the analysis, the point you are trying to make as to why these were not a great investment also runs true to all other investments, including whatever series you may or may not collect. From my perspective almost all collector coins are down over the same period of time, including submissions/revenues for our host.
But lets just have fun with your logic. The S&P500 is up 53% from 2007 to current. Without doing the hard math, many of the coins purchased in 2007-2009 are probably up this much or close to it. The recent years are what would be dragging down the gains. Remember the 2007 coins had mint issue prices in the $400 range. Currently they are being offered for over 100% that figure in the $850 range.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
What I get for the S&P return with dividends reinvested (which seems the appropriate comparison for the First Spouse since otherwise your calculation would ignore the dividends paid by stocks) is a 98.18% return since July 2008. I got this return from here: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ I think your return of 53% ignores the dividends and definitely does not reinvest them.
Of course, if you really wanted to compare returns, you'd 1) need to invest the same amount in the S&P as when you purchased the first spouse coin, and 2) take account of the taxes that must be paid on the stock dividends. It might be interesting for about 1 minute to see the comparison and would probably take a bunch of hours to calculate, so it hardly seems worth the effort.
I still wish the mint had not canceled the first spouse subscriptions because I would probably have wound up with a complete set...
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
The gold I bought in 2005, 2006, 2007 and even 2008 ... Man is that providing me a great return! I'm not an insider on Wall Street. No way I can match the returns of this gold pile myself.
The gold I bought thereafter. (Including spouse coins).. So, so depending upon when I bought it. Same as my AAPL stock. The shares I bought at around $60/share (pre 7/1 split) are doing great (especially with my dividend reinvestment). The shares I bought at $115- not so great at this moment.
Just my two cents,
Wondercoin
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Several of the proof populations in PR70 and especially in FS holders are lower than the uncirculated coins. This seems to be putting an extra premium and demand on some of the proofs, in addition to their better appearance, and in spite of their higher mintages.
Make sense?
Coin spin.
It doesn't have to actually "make sense". In fact a lot of things these days don't make sense to me at all.
However, real people are paying more for them because they want to have only First Strikes and in some dates there are less than 80 total coins available in PR70 FS. That really limits supply and as a result those coins sell for higher prices. In this case, I do believe a set of these in First Strikes in PR70 will always sell for more than a set that has mostly regular strikes.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
It doesn't have to actually "make sense".
Check, got it.
"However, real people"
OK, thanks.
Best of luck to you.
I certainly agree there are some sealed boxes out there for sure and the FS pops will go up some just like all modern pops do. However no matter what, these are low mintage and low pops especially in FS. Also NGC early releases can't be crossed over to FS at PCGS either. Lots of sealed boxes will have 69's. I can tell you that from a lot of experience sending dozens of mine in, only to be disappointed.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Best of luck to you.
Thanks, I need all the luck I can get. LOL
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
So again, we're talking about rare labels instead of rare coins. Hm...
Yes, based on modern coin auction results, rare labels are selling for more money than rare coins.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
However, if this series is generally unloved for most of their designs, it would seem that at some point the true value would be retained in rarity (small mintage) regardless of proof or mint state designations or finishes. In other words, the value would follow the lowest mintage numbers and potentially give the mint state versions a long term bump.
Perhaps not, just some speculation and guesstimates on what will add value many years down the line.
Seated Dollar Collection
A Louisa Adams proof in PR70 with an initial mint price of $619.95 and a mintage about 5 times as much at 6,581 in PR70 FS sells for a lot more.
If anyone here really hates first spouses and first strike labels and has one of these Louisa's or a Margaret Taylor in PR70 FS they really want to get rid of, I will gladly trade you two of the lowest mintage Betty Ford uncirculated coins or buy it for $2,000 right away. Cheers.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Wondercoin
How do you know that I haven't bid $2,000 on it already? Just no one else has bid more that $240 yet?
LOL
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Wondercoin
LAST MARGARET TAYLOR PR70FS SOLD AT HERITAGE:
"You won this lot for $2,200.00 ($2,585.00 w/Buyer's Premium), with a secret maximum bid of... FIGURE REMOVED BY ME "
Wondercoin
I can assure you that I agree it will sell for more, and yes I know there is a $2,000 bid already, and now someone just played with a trivial $1100. August 14 is a long time away and these will get bid up a lot. The low pop keys for sure.
Cheers
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
As always, just my two cents.
Wondercoin
edited to add ... yes, in the last half hour the bid did jump from $240 to $1,100. With about 22 (long) days to go!
I am looking at about 10 of these in this auction fairly closely. I also like the fact that most are above average 70 quality (probably because you were involved) . Note that yes coins can grade PCGS PR70, but regardless, some look better than others, or don't have spots, haze, etc. Proof 70's need to look really good to me or I don't bother.
I probably underestimated where this set will sell, because I may have underestimated what I might ultimately pay for the 10 I don't have. LOL
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Wondercoin
A lot of comments seem to be indicating older coins have low mintages when really the new ones are lowest to date. There are not many US coins with mintages less than 2,000, but these are available.
FIRST SPOUSE GOLD COINS
Florence Harding Uncirculated (2014) 1,920 1,923 3
Lou Hoover Uncirculated (2014) 1,908 1,906 -2
Bess Truman Proof (2015) 2,514 2,515 1
Bess Truman Uncirculated (2015) 1,750 1,752 2
Mamie Eisenhower Uncirculated (2015) 1,841 1,842 1
Jacqueline Kennedy Uncirculated (2015) 6,166 6,173 7
Lady Bird Johnson Proof (2015) 2,512 2,513 1
Lady Bird Johnson Uncirculated (2015) 1,637 1,640 3
Patricia Nixon Proof (2016) 2,215 2,222 7
Patricia Nixon Uncirculated (2016) 1,288 1,293 5
Betty Ford Proof (2016) 1,884 1,899 15
Betty Ford Uncirculated (2016) 1,175 1,179 4
Nancy Reagan Proof (2016) 1,713 2,166 453
Nancy Reagan Uncirculated (2016) 959 1,291 332
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
FWIW, my guess for the queen of the series is Ford.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
While Im excited to see what a full set of first strike 70s go for, ultimately, I don't think any serious collector could go wrong owning any coin with a sub 2000 mintage.
Or a proof with a sub-2500 mintage. I think proofs will continue to experience higher collector demand than uncs.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
While Im excited to see what a full set of first strike 70s go for, ultimately, I don't think any serious collector could go wrong owning any coin with a sub 2000 mintage.
Or a proof with a sub-2500 mintage. I think proofs will continue to experience higher collector demand than uncs.
Proofs will do well, of course.
I agree with your 2500 number.
Good point, thanks for bringing it up.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
This low PCGS pop FS M. Taylor has now been bid up to $2,000 hammer already with nearly 3 weeks to auction time! That coin is available generally at less than half that price in 70 grade without FS. "First Strike" - "it's what collectors want" and obviously pay up for even though, as we all know, it is just a "label".
Wondercoin.
This low PCGS pop FS M. Taylor has now been bid up to $2,000 hammer already with nearly 3 weeks to auction time!
One is on eBay for $3600.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Mitch can you provide a link to the coin you are talking about?
Thanks.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
Wondercoin
Wondercoin.
FWIW, my guess for the queen of the series is Ford.
Well, it WAS until you mentioned it--Ha!
BTW, I think she'd make a good queen.
What DOES fascinate me is the fact that First Strike brings any premium at all of these coins. All first strike means is they went out in the first month. The entire run is coined at the same time, thus the reality that it is where in the "pile" of inventory the coin you get comes from in terms of relation to a true first strike. This is especially true for the later runs.
The drop in popularity clearly came from the Great Recession that drove the price of stock down and the price of gold up. Thus, people had less disposable income for non essentials like gold coins, while the price of gold was going through the roof. Once the momentum was killed, then it became a bullion program.
As one who watched the Mint's marketing of precious metal into the numismatic markets in the mid 2000's from the inside, it is all about who was running the show in Sales and Marketing at the Mint. One individual truly understood the numismatic market as the Deputy Directory, however, he left due to some other issues and was never replaced by a knowledgable numismatic professional. Lots of paper shufflers, but none with true knowledge of the hobby. Thus, many poor decisions were made and the complete lack of focus continued for years. I always thought if funny that the most knowledgeable people at the Mint in terms of numismatics and the market worked in IT and Accounting. Go figure.
My long term view is that the First Spouse coins will be the gold equivalent to three cent nickels in terms of collector interest. There will always be a few who look to collect, but prices will remain depressed due to lack of overall demand. I may still go back and acquire a set of the Liberty First Spouse coins as that subset always appealed to me.
Thanks again Mitch for all your work and research on this topic. It helps keep some of the lesser lights alive and that is good for numismatics.
Your bewilderment with the First Strike label premiums is not isolated. Many ponder the same thing. Hence, my bringing attention to this auction where you have a complete collection of First Strikes. I understand nearly all or most of these coins were purchased by the owner of the set contemporaneous with the release of the spouse. So, it will be fairly easy to determine just how much the FS label helped this collectors' results.
Why do people pay up for a name brand when Costco (purportedly) carries the same quality under its Kirkland brand? What is it about PCGS' FS brand that has super knowledgeable numismatic collectors and dealers paying up for that as well?
Wondercoin
on the hole set altogether?
Wondercoin
Currently, people love to buy the label. The dealers are depending on it. Will the label continue to be more important than the coin? I guess time will tell.
Why do people pay up for a name brand when Costco (purportedly) carries the same quality under its Kirkland brand? What is it about PCGS' FS brand that has super knowledgeable numismatic collectors and dealers paying up for that as well?
Wondercoin
You answered your own question with the word "brand".
Rolls Royce
Rolex
i-Anything
Harley
diamonds
etc.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Wondercoin.
Wondercoin