Which will gold price hit first: $1500 or $900?

Baley

Also, when and why?

CyStater

<< <i>Also, when and why? >>



$900.
Who Knows?
So you can resurrect this thread in six to twelve months and add your usual snarky 'told you so' comments for all of us to enjoy.

BAJJERFAN

<< <i>

<< <i>Also, when and why? >>



$900.
Who Knows?
So you can resurrect this thread in six to twelve months and add your usual snarky 'told you so' comments for all of us to enjoy. >>



Si Si!

VanHalen

$1500 by 2017. I don't think the bottom will take us under $1000 and the bottom should be in within 18 months. 2017 will usher in a new administration and the end of "the economic recovery" that left most of America behind.

It would be easy to make an argument for $900 as well but $900 gold would likely mean $10 silver and I can't see that happening barring a total meltdown.

johnny9434

ill go $1500. fwiw and watch in tank to 900 now

OPA

$1,500...June 9, 2017....11:49AM ... EDT..
why? ... because my crystal ball and neighborhood swami told me so.

Timbuk3

$1500 in a couple of years. I don't think
it'll go down to $900. JMHO

JohnnyCache

I'm more in the gold will head lower camp.
I think speculators will keep it from getting to $900.00 but that said I think it could get close.
Something below the $1000 barrier, say $970.00 +-, seems to be within a reasonable expectation.
At that level I would expect buying by speculators would firm up the price, along with perhaps some production cuts from the miners.
I could see this happening as a slow decline over 24 months.

To get to $1500.00 or more I think we need a catalyst.
What the catalyst would be I don't know but it would need to be of a serious nature and be unanticipated. It could be in the form of a terrorist act with major destruction, a serious multinational war or some other kind of very significant and unanticipated event that just rocks peoples confidence and causes intense fear. Without that kind of event I really don't see the reason for Gold to move higher from here. All the normal "reasons" that one may give as to why gold should be higher are already known and they haven't moved the metal higher. It has to be a significant blind side event IMO.

TwoSides2aCoin

$1175 before $1250
What goes down must come up, Gold Bugs The sky could fall and man would still be digging for the answers. As a prognosticator, I reserve the right to be wrong because humble pie tastes delicious.

luckybucks

Hopefully gold levels off around $900. That makes it more attractive to those on a limited income (or those with multiple hobbies ).

renman95

Once rates start to 'edge' up we may see smoe lows but I don't think it'll reach $900. There would be too many buyers sub $1,000 smelling a good deal. I think the lows (>$900) will be late in 2015 to March 2016. Then a slow but steady run to above $1,500 post inauguration January 2017.... around Sept. 8, 2017. So we'll see $1,500 before $900, but it'll be close. It's all a wag....

roadrunner

Quite a few key levels between 900-1100 (935, 950, 961, 988, 1000, 1024, 1032, 1044, 1089, 1100). I don't think 900 will be seen. Lots of opportunities to find important support >900.

Zubie

I think the lowest we will see is $1050 and see $1500 mid 2016.

Steve27

$900, by the end of the year, due to low inflation and strong dollar vice other currencies.

ricko

$1350 by end of year.....However, if a black swan event occurs, all bets are off....at which time it could go well north of $1600.. Cheers, RickO

Baley

<< <i>

<< <i>Also, when and why? >>



$900.
Who Knows?
So you can resurrect this thread in six to twelve months and add your usual snarky 'told you so' comments for all of us to enjoy. >>



Only if I'm right

I think gold will find support near $1050 and finish the year just over $1100

Baley

... but then will fall below $1000 in 2016 and finish the year near that level.

VanHalen

<< <i>... but then will fall below $1000 in 2016 and finish the year near that level. >>



That should put silver around ~$12 in 2016. The day of sub-$300 tubes of eagles will return if Baley is right! It is certainly possible.

renman95

POG down 2.34% to 1,168 just because of a jobs report that smoe postulate will force the Fed to raise rates in June to keep in line with their unemployment goal.

To what is deserving of a 279 point drop on the Dow? A possible June 1/4 point rise? It seems several quarter-point rises wouldn't matter all that much(?) I'm probably wrong, but six quarter-point hikes mean that the Fed Funds rate is still under 2%, home morts maybe around 4.5-5%. Is this a calamity in the making? Will those rates stop housing in its tracks? Drop gold to $900? IIRC gold still rose for a while in the late 70's and into January 1980 when rates rose aggressively. And gold rose again when Greenspan launched his quarter-point assault in 2004 after the benchmark hit a 46 year low of 1%.

So where is today's "neutral"? Last decade, 3% was considered "neutral."

From 8/9/04
“If the systemic risk is gone, they need to withdraw the insurance policy,” Gay said. He figures that the Fed has to raise the federal funds rate to 2 percent by the end of the year and then to at least 3 percent by next year just to get close to a level considered “neutral” for the economy. And he said the Fed will not hesitate to continue raising rates “no matter what rate of job growth we have, as it’s not negative.”

jdimmick

I am in the 1050-1100 camp

perkdog

I dont have a clue when but i do think we see $900 before $1500

FullCameo

It will hit $500 before it hits $1500

PRIZ430

It will go where ever JP Morgan & company want it to go.....Short the paper...buy the physical...repeat....over and over again until the vault is full....then the COMEX goes belly up....paper is canceled.....physical rules....

TwoSides2aCoin

I also predict that Mexico is going to annex the United States before we invade Canada.

jmski52

You tell me - and we'll both be rich!

AlixTCat

I think we'll hit $900 before $1500. When? By July 4th, 2016 or so. Why? Because that's my gut feeling. Prices seem to be lower in early July.

Baley

<< <i>You tell me - and we'll both be rich! >>



I told you what I thought. How we doin?

jmski52

I told you what I thought. How we doin?

By golly, you did tell us what you thought! The numbers weren't necessarily actionable by me, but we're doin ok.

I did buy some gold this year and plan to buy more, plus a bit more platinum. I'm figuring in the 10% loss for 2016 that you've predicted as well - I incorporated your prediction as part of my "dragging my feet" strategy" when buying, (i.e., not being in a big hurry.)

I think I might be backfilling some more of my Plats this year, the way things are going.

Haven't decided to start buying swords quite yet, but added another cool firearm.

chumley

gold at $1500 August of 2017...just as the Hillary impeachment hearings start

roadrunner

<< <i>Quite a few key levels between 900-1100 (935, 950, 961, 988, 1000, 1024, 1032, 1044, 1089, 1100). I don't think 900 will be seen. Lots of opportunities to find important support >900. >>



First 2 supports touched. $1089 last night is the "square of 33." That was an important level on the way up in 2009.

Kip

$900 for sure

streeter

Cyprus, check
Greece, check

Italy, Spain, Portugal not quite yet.
Ruble, check
Oil, check
Euro, check
USA pensions, not quite yet
USA entitlements, not yet
China, soon

When FEAR enters this market we are in for a ride. Nobody will be paying attention to gold. Free fall time.

LindeDad

Real or Paper?

Justacommeman

Could make a strong case for either. Maybe it doesn't hit either for a long while?

mark

Baley

End of the year just about 5 weeks away..

BAJJERFAN

I hope it's not $900 shot $500.

OPA

jdimmick
So far your crystal ball is on the money. Will you rent it out for a fee?

ricko

Well, my prediction proved to be as valid as all my other predictions. I guess I better

stick to poker.... Cheers, RickO

JohnnyCache

Originally posted by: JohnnyCache
I'm more in the gold will head lower camp.
.........

To get to $1500.00 or more I think we need a catalyst.
What the catalyst would be I don't know but it would need to be of a serious nature and be unanticipated. It could be in the form of a terrorist act with major destruction, a serious multinational war or some other kind of very significant and unanticipated event that just rocks peoples confidence and causes intense fear. Without that kind of event I really don't see the reason for Gold to move higher from here. All the normal "reasons" that one may give as to why gold should be higher are already known and they haven't moved the metal higher. It has to be a significant blind side event IMO.

Well lets see, we've had a terrorist event in a major european city, a near miss with the outbreak of war after Turkey shot down the Russian jet, I guess it's going to have to be door number three - something completely out of left field.





There was an article the other day in which the CEO of Rand Gold suggested that the cost of production, particularly after some miners chose to focus on capturing the low hanging fruit, was approaching being unprofitable.




ARTICLE

BBN

I can't see it going much under $1,000. I truly believe the last 10 years created a lot of permanent gold bugs. People will start buying heavily into it once it reaches a magic number like $1,000

derryb

Originally posted by: BBN
I can't see it going much under $1,000. I truly believe the last 10 years created a lot of permanent gold bugs. People will start buying heavily into it once it reaches a magic number like $1,000

Unfortunately strong demand only affects premiums while base price will continue to be set by the paper futures market. As we have recently seen premiums can increase while the base price decreases. It will take a rally in the futures market to see any surge in physical prices.

renman95

Originally posted by: renman95
Once rates start to 'edge' up we may see smoe lows but I don't think it'll reach $900. There would be too many buyers sub $1,000 smelling a good deal. I think the lows (>$900) will be late in 2015 to March 2016. Then a slow but steady run to above $1,500 post inauguration January 2017.... around Sept. 8, 2017. So we'll see $1,500 before $900, but it'll be close. It's all a wag....

WSJ today: "Had it no been for China and Russia's CB buying cheap gold, the price would have gone below $1,000 per ounce" - Bill Hubbard

"We would not be surprised to see purchases by the China's CB for many years to come as they are underweight in gold for an economy of its size."

After six years of disclosing nothing about it gold reserves, the PRBC surprised markets in the July by announcing that its holdings of the metal had risen by more than 50% since 2009 to 1,658 metric tons...1,743 metric tons by November.

TopographicOceans

$900
Because that's a stop on it's way to $500

jmski52

The question becomes, will the US default on $20 trillion in debt, devalue the dollar by, say 50%, or inflate to cover their mismanagement of the whole shebang? Or simply take on another $20 trillion more in debt? Wars aren't cheap, you know.



I don't think anyone really knows at this point. So, would you rather have a piece of paper with an official-looking government insignia stamped on it with gold ink, or a physical asset that's always been recognized around the whole world as being valuable?

Baley

would you rather have a piece of paper with an official-looking government insignia stamped on it with gold ink, or a physical asset that's always been recognized around the whole world as being valuable?



How about some of each? And a few other kinds of assets, too, for diversification



Thread was started when gold was $1200, or at the midpoint between $900 and $1500.

jmski52

Just a hunch, but I don't think it's going to make it all the way down to $900 without a collapse in the monetary system.

derryb

Originally posted by: jmski52
Just a hunch, but I don't think it's going to make it all the way down to $900 without a collapse in the monetary system.

collapse in the monetary system will send it to 1500. The dollar mirage is holding it down.

TwoSides2aCoin

$900 because it already hit $900 before it hit $1500. Why would simple math change any more than the economy ? History man. History.

cohodk

Originally posted by: jmski52
Just a hunch, but I don't think it's going to make it all the way down to $900 without a collapse in the monetary system.

So what if there is no monetary system collapse?

cohodk

Originally posted by: derryb

Originally posted by: jmski52
Just a hunch, but I don't think it's going to make it all the way down to $900 without a collapse in the monetary system.

collapse in the monetary system will send it to 1500. The dollar mirage is holding it down.

Same question----So what if there is no monetary system collapse?

derryb

Originally posted by: cohodk

Originally posted by: jmski52
Just a hunch, but I don't think it's going to make it all the way down to $900 without a collapse in the monetary system.

So what if there is no monetary system collapse?

More importantly, what if there is?