I said that I don't think that gold is going to make it all the way down to $900 without a collapse in the monetary system. I didn't say that I thought we would have such a collapse. I think it's much more likely that inflation will be a factor as a result of debt creation/debt monetization that gets out of control.
I find it quite comical that even the PM bulls can't agree on "fundamentals". I do not find it hard to believe that it isn't possible to get a logical and rational response to a simple question from a pm bull.
Would you mind re-stating your question? You're using a triple negative and that takes away a lot from the intent of the question.
derryb's position is that a collapse in the monetary system will send gold to $1,500. I'm saying that runaway inflation due to uncontrollable debt monetization will lead to a monetary collapse. I'm saying that the only way to keep a deflationary collapse from happening is to have uncontrollable debt monetization, which is what we have had now for 7 years.
There's no disagreement between PM bulls here, but I would say that a better term might be "fiscal realists" rather than "PM bulls".
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
When you don't have an answer just keep asking questions.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The question becomes, will the US default on $20 trillion in debt, devalue the dollar by, say 50%, or inflate to cover their mismanagement of the whole shebang? Or simply take on another $20 trillion more in debt? Wars aren't cheap, you know.
I don't think anyone really knows at this point. So, would you rather have a piece of paper with an official-looking government insignia stamped on it with gold ink, or a physical asset that's always been recognized around the whole world as being valuable?
There is little doubt we will take on another $20 trillion in debt before any default or devaluation. We've got a couple decades during which all the balls can be kept in the air.
Originally posted by: cohodk Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
sounds like we disagree. He didn't contradict himself, neither did I.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Originally posted by: cohodk Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
sounds like we disagree. He didn't contradict himself, neither did I.
You are both bulls with different opiniins. One looks for deflation and the other inflation. It's really no wonder why PMS trade in sideways patterns for extended periods. Even within the bullish ranks there is a tug of war.
The Fed can't "do" anything. 1/4% isn't going to reward savers or "cool off an overheated economy" because it's already cooled off. All they're doing is trying to get back some future leverage and hope that nobody notices. This isn't exactly "taking away the punchbowl", nevertheless the alcoholic (stock market) isn't going to like it very much. Should they raise rates? Maybe, maybe not - but they never should have bailed out their buddies at the big banks. All they're doing now is raising the cost structure of the economy that they've already screwed up. We get to pay for it.
Let's talk about what constitutes a monetary collapse. derryb is linking the book "When Money Dies", which is the book I happen to be reading now. A monetary collapse simply means that people stop trusting the currency and are forced into behavioral patterns that they never expected nor wanted. The book is about Weimar, and what I've found interesting is that the collapse wasn't brought on by a single event but more a sequence of events that would indeed be hard to duplicate. A monetary collapse is nasty. History repeats but never in the same exact way.
My comment that gold probably wouldn't go to $900 without a monetary collapse doesn't contradict derryb's statement that a monetary collapse would bring about $1,500 gold. I don't see any contradiction in a possible sequence of events that first includes a severe credit and liquidity crunch that sends gold lower, followed by a massive inflationary wave that sends it higher. In the process, confidence in the whole system could be destroyed.
My sense is that there is a credit crunch and a liquidity crunch already in the works. IF the Fed allows a credit and liquidity crunch to accelerate, gold could very well go to $900, but that will be the least of anyone's concerns. We'll have to see how it goes. IF a true credit and liquidity crunch begins to accelerate, I would expect the Fed to apply some significant QE bandaids on behalf of some more of their "friends". The ones who don't get bailed out are workers, individual taxpayers, and retirees.
The cycle repeats until the system can't function, then it collapses. It would be helpful if the politicians and bankers weren't so corrupt, but they are.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Originally posted by: cohodk And neither of you answered my question about if there is no monetary collapse.
Why don't you answer it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
If there is no collapse, the banks will raise their lending rates to 3 1/2% while targeting savings rates at -0.1%. Just another wealth transfer away from the middle class.
Businesses, small ones especially - will find this a harder environment in which to survive. Capital is being destroyed so that the bankers can live large. It's really pretty simple.
If your industry owns a few senators and congressmen, you may get a few carve-outs that become lucrative. If not, too damn bad.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I would be interested in knowing what bank accounts in the US pay negative interest rates.
I guess gold with a 0% interest rate is better?
Your comments are very jaded and is the principle reason for your dour outlook. Put down the doom and gloom literature. I do understand your reasoning and thought process and share some concerns, but focusing on minutia that you cannot control is detrimental to all aspects of one's life.
Your comments are very jaded and is the principle reason for your dour outlook. Put down the doom and gloom literature. I do understand your reasoning and thought process and share some concerns, but focusing on minutia that you cannot control is detrimental to all aspects of one's life.
Gee, whiz......cohodk - tell me what I said that isn't true. Just because I'm calling out the big banks and politicians for obvious impropriety and bad judgement, that makes me jaded and dour? I could easily question your motives in always defending the bankers, but I haven't until now. .
Worse yet, you suggest that I don't do my own thinking. pfffft!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Well, I agree with you about banksters jmski52, and also, btw, I don't think sports and entertainment stars are "worth" what they make either.. but why tilt at that particular windmill?
Can't change the world, just our own personal reality.
Originally posted by: cohodk Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
I dunno. I'm just trying to figure out what a measly quarter point raise in rates will do to this schitzo market. Will it be cheerin' Yellen ?
I know that didn't fix it, but… I tried.
There's hardly any evidence that smoething of historical note happened; the averages are rather flat for the week but if one looks at the two-day return, they're down around four percent.
Nothing's changed like a good old buck. Gold, on the other hand, can be formed, shaped, and manipulated into many different things, and despite the cost, still looks better worn, than held or spent.
Good history thread.....and shows how much stock to put in predictions...So what is the next hurdle? $1200 or $1600 by the end of 2019??? Gentlemen, start your prediction engines...... Cheers, RickO
It will be $1632.94/oz. on 3/24/2020 at 9:33am because the LA Rams won the Super Bowl in January, and people took awhile to realize the implications, followed by a plummet to 977.04/oz at 6:05 am 6/1/2020 because of a collapse in soybean prices in Brazil because of an indigenous peoples' revolt in the Amazon and an unexpected upsurge in Bruce Springsteen CD sales in Uzbekistan that spring. And the Moon will be in its seventh house.
Of note: Gold $2,000 is only a 25% move from here. Since September 2018 (11 months ago), we’ve experienced a 26% surge in gold prices.
The 2nd leg will be shorter. Very likely $2K before Christmas.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
I do not find it hard to believe that it isn't possible to get a logical and rational response to a simple question from a pm bull.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I said that I don't think that gold is going to make it all the way down to $900 without a collapse in the monetary system. I didn't say that I thought we would have such a collapse. I think it's much more likely that inflation will be a factor as a result of debt creation/debt monetization that gets out of control.
I find it quite comical that even the PM bulls can't agree on "fundamentals". I do not find it hard to believe that it isn't possible to get a logical and rational response to a simple question from a pm bull.
Would you mind re-stating your question? You're using a triple negative and that takes away a lot from the intent of the question.
derryb's position is that a collapse in the monetary system will send gold to $1,500. I'm saying that runaway inflation due to uncontrollable debt monetization will lead to a monetary collapse. I'm saying that the only way to keep a deflationary collapse from happening is to have uncontrollable debt monetization, which is what we have had now for 7 years.
There's no disagreement between PM bulls here, but I would say that a better term might be "fiscal realists" rather than "PM bulls".
I knew it would happen.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Sounds contradictory to me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The question becomes, will the US default on $20 trillion in debt, devalue the dollar by, say 50%, or inflate to cover their mismanagement of the whole shebang? Or simply take on another $20 trillion more in debt? Wars aren't cheap, you know.
I don't think anyone really knows at this point. So, would you rather have a piece of paper with an official-looking government insignia stamped on it with gold ink, or a physical asset that's always been recognized around the whole world as being valuable?
There is little doubt we will take on another $20 trillion in debt before any default or devaluation. We've got a couple decades during which all the balls can be kept in the air.
Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
sounds like we disagree. He didn't contradict himself, neither did I.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
I dunno. I'm just trying to figure out what a measly quarter point raise in rates will do to this schitzo market. Will it be cheerin' or yellin'.
Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
sounds like we disagree. He didn't contradict himself, neither did I.
You are both bulls with different opiniins. One looks for deflation and the other inflation. It's really no wonder why PMS trade in sideways patterns for extended periods. Even within the bullish ranks there is a tug of war.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
By the way, jmski didn't say that.
It might be interesting to hear what cohodk says.
I knew it would happen.
Let's talk about what constitutes a monetary collapse. derryb is linking the book "When Money Dies", which is the book I happen to be reading now. A monetary collapse simply means that people stop trusting the currency and are forced into behavioral patterns that they never expected nor wanted. The book is about Weimar, and what I've found interesting is that the collapse wasn't brought on by a single event but more a sequence of events that would indeed be hard to duplicate. A monetary collapse is nasty. History repeats but never in the same exact way.
My comment that gold probably wouldn't go to $900 without a monetary collapse doesn't contradict derryb's statement that a monetary collapse would bring about $1,500 gold. I don't see any contradiction in a possible sequence of events that first includes a severe credit and liquidity crunch that sends gold lower, followed by a massive inflationary wave that sends it higher. In the process, confidence in the whole system could be destroyed.
My sense is that there is a credit crunch and a liquidity crunch already in the works. IF the Fed allows a credit and liquidity crunch to accelerate, gold could very well go to $900, but that will be the least of anyone's concerns. We'll have to see how it goes. IF a true credit and liquidity crunch begins to accelerate, I would expect the Fed to apply some significant QE bandaids on behalf of some more of their "friends". The ones who don't get bailed out are workers, individual taxpayers, and retirees.
The cycle repeats until the system can't function, then it collapses. It would be helpful if the politicians and bankers weren't so corrupt, but they are.
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
then the prices for commodities will be affected by the forces of supply and demand, and the effects of the actions of market participants
Like always
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
I dunno. I'm just trying to figure out what a measly quarter point raise in rates will do to this schitzo market. Will it be cheerin' Yellen ?
I know that didn't fix it, but… I tried.
And neither of you answered my question about if there is no monetary collapse.
Why don't you answer it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And neither of you answered my question about if there is no monetary collapse.
Why don't you answer it.
Because I already know, and that gives me the advantage over you. Now THAT would be funny, if it wasn't so true.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If there is no collapse, the banks will raise their lending rates to 3 1/2% while targeting savings rates at -0.1%. Just another wealth transfer away from the middle class.
Businesses, small ones especially - will find this a harder environment in which to survive. Capital is being destroyed so that the bankers can live large. It's really pretty simple.
If your industry owns a few senators and congressmen, you may get a few carve-outs that become lucrative. If not, too damn bad.
I knew it would happen.
I guess gold with a 0% interest rate is better?
Your comments are very jaded and is the principle reason for your dour outlook. Put down the doom and gloom literature. I do understand your reasoning and thought process and share some concerns, but focusing on minutia that you cannot control is detrimental to all aspects of one's life.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I didn't make it up. Bernanke said it. Pay attention.
Your comments are very jaded and is the principle reason for your dour outlook. Put down the doom and gloom literature. I do understand your reasoning and thought process and share some concerns, but focusing on minutia that you cannot control is detrimental to all aspects of one's life.
Gee, whiz......cohodk - tell me what I said that isn't true. Just because I'm calling out the big banks and politicians for obvious impropriety and bad judgement, that makes me jaded and dour? I could easily question your motives in always defending the bankers, but I haven't until now. .
Worse yet, you suggest that I don't do my own thinking. pfffft!
I knew it would happen.
Can't change the world, just our own personal reality.
Got -----ville?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I still challenge you to show me any bank in the US that is paying negative rates on saving or checking accts.
Stop thinking about the "what ifs" and focus on the "what is".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Jmski said a monetary collapse would take gold to 900, while derryb said that would take it to 1500.
Sounds contradictory to me.
I dunno. I'm just trying to figure out what a measly quarter point raise in rates will do to this schitzo market. Will it be cheerin' Yellen ?
I know that didn't fix it, but… I tried.
There's hardly any evidence that smoething of historical note happened; the averages are rather flat for the week but if one looks at the two-day return, they're down around four percent.
Nothing's changed like a good old buck. Gold, on the other hand, can be formed, shaped, and manipulated into many different things, and despite the cost, still looks better worn, than held or spent.
Aaaand the answer is, $1500, summer 2019. Coingrats!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Cool thread, Baley.
I would have had a hard time believing but it is very cool it was the top end..
Heck,,I was only off by 2 years with my crystal ball gazing
Yep, pleased to have been wrong.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I want to be more wrong.
Good history thread.....and shows how much stock to put in predictions...So what is the next hurdle? $1200 or $1600 by the end of 2019??? Gentlemen, start your prediction engines......
Cheers, RickO
Not much of a challenge....$100 to $1600 -$300 to $1,200...Odds would favor the $100. However, my guess....neither.
It will be $1632.94/oz. on 3/24/2020 at 9:33am because the LA Rams won the Super Bowl in January, and people took awhile to realize the implications, followed by a plummet to 977.04/oz at 6:05 am 6/1/2020 because of a collapse in soybean prices in Brazil because of an indigenous peoples' revolt in the Amazon and an unexpected upsurge in Bruce Springsteen CD sales in Uzbekistan that spring. And the Moon will be in its seventh house.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Where did streeter go? Haven't seen that toilet bowl avatar in a long time
dpoole posted: "And the Moon will be in its seventh house."
And Jupiter aligns with Mars,
Then peace will guide the planets
And love will steer the stars
This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius
FYI: We've got a long wait....... the Age of Aquarius will arrive in 3573.
Agree with dpoole $1,632.94 on 3/24/2020. Poor, poor paper dollar.
Proud of ya, OPA.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I got my money on those new electronic slots.
I saw the show at the Warner Theater in Washington DC in the either late 60's or early 70's.
Of note: Gold $2,000 is only a 25% move from here. Since September 2018 (11 months ago), we’ve experienced a 26% surge in gold prices.
The 2nd leg will be shorter. Very likely $2K before Christmas.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'm blaming this run up on the trade war
It could move up on momentum
The HK stuff could be helping a little right now. That would be short lived even if the protests continue or go to the tianamen level
2000 -1500 = 500
500 is 1/3 of 1500 not 1/4
but 2000 is a sexier number than 1875 and its above the last top so ...........