The economic downturn in China will be the top story of 2015.
MGLICKER
Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
Worldwide double digit inflation will be story #2.
Russia and Venezuela are the canary in the iceberg.
...I mean the tip of the coal mine.
Hell, it is New Years!
Russia and Venezuela are the canary in the iceberg.
...I mean the tip of the coal mine.
Hell, it is New Years!
0
Comments
Happy New Year!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Unless you think the dollar is going to lose half its value next year, like the ruble. In which case I would call you a fruitcake.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Pm's are not...
#2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
#2: Silver to da moon!
#3: Tungsten to da moon!
Loves me some shiny!
<< <i>#1: Germany leaves EU
#2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand >>
You forgot this guy.....
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>#1: Germany leaves EU
#2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand >>
You forgot this guy.....
10 4...beat me to it.
<< <i>
<< <i>#1: Germany leaves EU
#2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand >>
You forgot this guy.....
If not, that most certainly will rank as the most unrealistic ... not gonna happen ... must have been abducted by Aliens when making that call.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Such a story can't be created unless China's economy pulls a Russia.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Knustler's 2015 predictions >>
This guy writes fiction books.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
....it is in Europe now and will eventually spread here as well.
Once you've bought your first non-dirt flooring and electric refrigerator, will you soon be in the market for another one? or will you then shop for a microwave oven and maybe a plasma TV and a recliner?
In other words, China's y/y growth rate has to slow.. has to.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Once you've bought your first non-dirt flooring and electric refrigerator, will you soon be in the market for another one? or will you then shop for a microwave oven and maybe a plasma TV and a recliner?
In other words, China's y/y growth rate has to slow.. has to. "
It may not slow as much as you expect if they are successful in stimulating domestic comsumption to make up for a drop in exports which is something they have been doing. Turning a poor agricultural population into more middle class consumers....like the rest of the world(almost)!
Then again, with the increasing dollar strength occuring our imports from China could increase I guess. Cheaper goods secondary to strong dollar.
Who knows?
Eventually you outgrow your britches and have to let it all hang out.
Top story of 2015 will be the NWO. They are coming to get you....
BOO!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The top story of 2015 has not even entered the imagination of most pundits yet.....nor will it until it happens. Predictions here are based on experience or biases and are not in any way predictive. Cheers, RickO >>
right o
RickO
<< <i>Top story of 2015 will be the NWO. They are coming to get you.... >>
They already have you.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<Neo takes the red pill>
Morpheus: I imagine that right now, you're feeling a bit like Alice. Hmm? Tumbling down the rabbit hole?
Neo: You could say that.
Morpheus: I see it in your eyes. You have the look of a man who accepts what he sees because he is expecting to wake up. Ironically, that's not far from the truth. Do you believe in fate, Neo?
Neo: No.
Morpheus: Why not?
Neo: Because I don't like the idea that I'm not in control of my life.
Morpheus: I know *exactly* what you mean. Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know you can't explain, but you feel it. You've felt it your entire life, that there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I'm talking about?
Neo: The Matrix.
Morpheus: Do you want to know what it is?
Neo: Yes.
Morpheus: The Matrix is everywhere. It is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work... when you go to church... when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else you were born into bondage. Into a prison that you cannot taste or see or touch. A prison for your mind.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Loved it!
". . . the appropriate pill is conditional on the state of investor preferences toward risk-seeking and risk-aversion – preferences that can be largely inferred from observable market action."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
His no 1 pick does not even make the back pages
worldwide double digit inflation?
Russia and who?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>A real Greek tragedy. >>
Baley just trapped me in my head forever.
Well , at least for as long as this brain can think.
<< <i>Yeah, he was often in error but never in doubt.
I think the Glicker was right about this thread title, and that China bubble is losing some air. Note, that's not to say that China is Over or that this is THE BIG World Ending CRISIS, but rather the latest news, China up 100% or 150% or whatever time frame you choose, and then down 40% when the public there realizes this time, it's not different for their stock market and things do correct and don't go to the sky forever
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>
Where's is Glicker???
<< <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>
You're assuming 2015 is officially over.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>
Where is Glicker??? >>
...in a parallel universe.
<< <i>If China prints a 3Q15 GDP number under 6% then MGLICKER will look like a prophet.
Will those that foresee the US's economic problems ahead be declared profits as well?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>....Will those that foresee the US's economic problems ahead be declared profits as well?
No. They will just continue to be called collusory-oriented gold bugs.
<< <i>As with all of MGL's previous posts, he got this one totally wrong. He is still batting 0 for ???
His no 1 pick does not even make the back pages
worldwide double digit inflation?
Russia and who? >>
He is still swinging away at AMZN and FB...he is probably still shorting them.
<< <i>
<< <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>
Where's is Glicker??? >>
In his bunker watching Fox News.
<< <i>As usual, MGLicker posted a moronic prediction that (thus far) hasn't come true. The stock market and the economy are not the same thing...the recent meltdown in Chinese stocks proves that Chinese stocks are down, not the Chinese economy. China's GDP is only growing at a 7% rate...how terrible...MGLicker was a delusional tea party guy who one year ago predicted the S&P 500 to be around 1,000 right now... >>
From where I sit it looks like a darn good prediction. What does a 7% Chinese "growth" mean? Is that just half as many bridges and cities to nowhere being built? In most industrial nations the state of the stock market closely parallels the state of the economy and its growth. They might vary by 0-9 months but generally they seem pretty close to me. The Chinese govt has strongly intervened in the stock market to keep prices from falling. I'd not be surprised if they started jailing/executing traders for shorting....lol. Sure looks like an "economic downturn" to me. Commodities across the world have been hammered in 2015, much of that coming from a reduced demand out of China. Last I checked, commodities falling off the cliff isn't exactly the recipe for "prime economic growth,".....though quite often the precursor to recessions. MGL's prediction on the S&P is probably reasonable too....though maybe a few years early.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Is the Chinese market down 30% or up 80%? >>
Let's take a look at a 15-year chart? Why 15 years? Because it will make my point for me
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Is the Chinese market down 30% or up 80%? >>
Seems like both of those not applicable. The OP was talking about 2015....nothing else. The Chinese stock market has retraced back to August 2014 levels, and lost >100% of the 2015 gains....supporting the OP's original post. In fact it has dipped as low as levels last seen in Dec 2013 and Jan-Feb 2013. It's already broken through 2 key layers of support. Down 23% currently from the 2015 high. Spin it any way you like...but this is 2015.
As far as MLG's inflation prediction, if you consider non-US countries, there are dozens of them experiencing strong, and even double digit inflation....especially emerging nations (ie saddled with US dollar debt). Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Venezuela, Egypt, Ukraine, Syria, Iran, Argentina, Belarus, Sudan, etc. While North America, Europe, and Australia are low, you have South America, Africa, Russia, Middle East, and Asia with much generally much higher rates. Bifurcation is not applicable to only coins. If I choose 4% as the line, half the world's nations have inflation above this level. Choosing 2% or 3% as the line, most of the world has significant inflation.
(hit "1 year", "10 year" or "Max" to get the Big Picture for Chinese stocks; you can also hit the little calendar to cherry-pick your specific date range
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
So what evidence is there of a downturn in China's economy?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
China GDP Expands 1.7% QoQ in Q2
China GDP Growth Steady in Q2
China Trade Surplus Widens in June
China Inflation Rate Accelerates in June
China Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 4.85%
China Inflation Rate Eases in May
China Trade Surplus Widens More than Expected
China Cuts Interest Rate to 5.1%
China Inflation Rate Rises to 1.5% in April
China Trade Surplus Rises More Than Expected
China Cuts Reserve Ratio by 1%
China Quarterly GDP Growth Hits Record Low
China GDP Growth at 6-Year Low
China Trade Surplus Narrows on Falling Exports
China Inflation Rate Steady in March
China Inflation Rate Up to 1.4%
China's Trade Surplus at New Record High in February
China Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 5.35%
China Inflation Rate Eases to 5-Year Low
China Posts Highest Trade Surplus on Record in January
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>....So what evidence is there of a downturn in China's economy? >>
You ought to keep up on what your own guy, Lacy Hunt says.....lol
I certainly don't think the Chinese SM being down so much from earlier in 2015 is a moot point. It's quite important and fits in very well the with the 8 yr business/economic confidence cycles. If I were trying to analyze the Chinese economy I certainly wouldn't hang my hat on "statistics" coming from "official" sources. Rather, I'd utilize what independent analysts come up with. At least analysts not "in-country" have no fear of being jailed for their views. Here in the US you just don't get the govt grants and pork when you don't play along. In China you get the Laogai...that's if you're lucky.
It's funny that now when you make a forecast for a short period in the future, you're being held "responsible" for 10-30 year chart history as well ?????????????????? But, I'll play along. Using Baley's MAX chart it looks to me like China SM peaked in Dec 2007. That mania rise in 2006-2007 looks similar to 2014-2015...not stable and not steady....ie bubble-like. My guess would be that 2015 was the final "bounce" from the 2008-2013 decline. Fwiw the numbers I mentioned earlier on China were from the FXI large cap ETF. It can't be a positive sign that it has retraced to 2013 levels. Interesting that 7-1/2 yrs after the 2007 China SM peak, it's there again in 2015...fitting into a possible 7-8 yr cycle.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear