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The economic downturn in China will be the top story of 2015.

Worldwide double digit inflation will be story #2.

Russia and Venezuela are the canary in the iceberg.

...I mean the tip of the coal mine.


Hell, it is New Years!


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Comments

  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,480 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And if it isn't, I'm sure Mglicker will find plenty of other topics to start threads about! image

    Happy New Year!


    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No inflation until all the banks begin multiplying $$$$.

    Unless you think the dollar is going to lose half its value next year, like the ruble. In which case I would call you a fruitcake. image LOL
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    The dollar in a major bull market, because it is in all markets and in all currency's...
    Pm's are not...
    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #1: Germany leaves EU
    #2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • carew4mecarew4me Posts: 3,462 ✭✭✭✭
    #1: Gold to da moon!
    #2: Silver to da moon!
    #3: Tungsten to da moon!

    Loves me some shiny!
  • gsa1fangsa1fan Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭
    Beautiful sunny winter dayimage Good start to 2015 Happy New Year to all
    Avid collector of GSA's.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>#1: Germany leaves EU
    #2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand >>



    You forgot this guy.....image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>#1: Germany leaves EU
    #2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand >>



    You forgot this guy.....image >>



    10 4...beat me to it.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>#1: Germany leaves EU
    #2: COMEX defaults on delivery demand >>



    You forgot this guy.....image >>



    If not, that most certainly will rank as the most unrealistic ... not gonna happen ... must have been abducted by Aliens when making that call. image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, we'd better start off by defining what we mean by "top" and "story" because some folks stretch their definitions of simple words in order to make esoteric philosophical points

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭✭
    China is more manipulative of reality than we are.


    Such a story can't be created unless China's economy pulls a Russia.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Knustler's 2015 predictions >>




    This guy writes fiction books. image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The top story of 2015 has not even entered the imagination of most pundits yet.....nor will it until it happens. Predictions here are based on experience or biases and are not in any way predictive. Cheers, RickO
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    The big story will be deflation along with its implications and ramifications....
    ....it is in Europe now and will eventually spread here as well.
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    by economic downturn in China, do we mean slowing growth, or do we mean an actual economic contraction? either way, to major phenomenon, one, it's way easier to have a certain percentage increase when the number (GDP, for example) is small, than when it's large. And two: Regression toward the mean! China's population has been playing catch-up to the developed world in terms of quality of life.

    Once you've bought your first non-dirt flooring and electric refrigerator, will you soon be in the market for another one? or will you then shop for a microwave oven and maybe a plasma TV and a recliner?

    In other words, China's y/y growth rate has to slow.. has to.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    "
    Once you've bought your first non-dirt flooring and electric refrigerator, will you soon be in the market for another one? or will you then shop for a microwave oven and maybe a plasma TV and a recliner?

    In other words, China's y/y growth rate has to slow.. has to. "

    It may not slow as much as you expect if they are successful in stimulating domestic comsumption to make up for a drop in exports which is something they have been doing. Turning a poor agricultural population into more middle class consumers....like the rest of the world(almost)!
    Then again, with the increasing dollar strength occuring our imports from China could increase I guess. Cheaper goods secondary to strong dollar.
    Who knows?
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    China already has vacant cities...can only build so many. What to you do with all the workers who built the vacant cities and no longer have jobs to pay to live in those vacant cities.

    Eventually you outgrow your britches and have to let it all hang out.

    Top story of 2015 will be the NWO. They are coming to get you....



    BOO!!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    The nWo reign is over and was short, when Hogan turned it was all over...
    keceph `anah
  • lcoopielcoopie Posts: 8,692 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The top story of 2015 has not even entered the imagination of most pundits yet.....nor will it until it happens. Predictions here are based on experience or biases and are not in any way predictive. Cheers, RickO >>



    right o
    RickO
    LCoopie = Les
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Top story of 2015 will be the NWO. They are coming to get you.... >>


    They already have you. image

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

    <Neo takes the red pill>

    Morpheus: I imagine that right now, you're feeling a bit like Alice. Hmm? Tumbling down the rabbit hole?

    Neo: You could say that.

    Morpheus: I see it in your eyes. You have the look of a man who accepts what he sees because he is expecting to wake up. Ironically, that's not far from the truth. Do you believe in fate, Neo?

    Neo: No.

    Morpheus: Why not?

    Neo: Because I don't like the idea that I'm not in control of my life.

    Morpheus: I know *exactly* what you mean. Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know you can't explain, but you feel it. You've felt it your entire life, that there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I'm talking about?

    Neo: The Matrix.

    Morpheus: Do you want to know what it is?

    Neo: Yes.

    Morpheus: The Matrix is everywhere. It is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work... when you go to church... when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.

    Neo: What truth?

    Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else you were born into bondage. Into a prison that you cannot taste or see or touch. A prison for your mind.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    That was great Baley!
    Loved it!

    image
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Red pill or blue pill?

    ". . . the appropriate pill is conditional on the state of investor preferences toward risk-seeking and risk-aversion – preferences that can be largely inferred from observable market action."

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ... aaand 6 months later, here it is!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭
    As with all of MGL's previous posts, he got this one totally wrong. He is still batting 0 for ???

    His no 1 pick does not even make the back pages
    worldwide double digit inflation?
    Russia and who?
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    Yeah, he was often in error but never in doubt.
    image
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Top economic story of 2015 has not yet occurred.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A real Greek tragedy.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,796 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>A real Greek tragedy. >>



    Baley just trapped me in my head forever. image
    Well , at least for as long as this brain can think.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Yeah, he was often in error but never in doubt.
    image >>



    I think the Glicker was right about this thread title, and that China bubble is losing some air. Note, that's not to say that China is Over or that this is THE BIG World Ending CRISIS, but rather the latest news, China up 100% or 150% or whatever time frame you choose, and then down 40% when the public there realizes this time, it's not different for their stock market and things do correct and don't go to the sky forever

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Glicker was dead nuts on.
    Have a nice day
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>


    Where's is Glicker???
    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>


    You're assuming 2015 is officially over.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>


    Where is Glicker??? >>



    ...in a parallel universe.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,789 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If China prints a 3Q15 GDP number under 6% then MGLICKER will look like a prophet. image
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If China prints a 3Q15 GDP number under 6% then MGLICKER will look like a prophet. image >>


    Will those that foresee the US's economic problems ahead be declared profits as well? image

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>....Will those that foresee the US's economic problems ahead be declared profits as well? image >>



    No. They will just continue to be called collusory-oriented gold bugs. image
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • As usual, MGLicker posted a moronic prediction that (thus far) hasn't come true. The stock market and the economy are not the same thing...the recent meltdown in Chinese stocks proves that Chinese stocks are down, not the Chinese economy. China's GDP is only growing at a 7% rate...how terrible...MGLicker was a delusional tea party guy who one year ago predicted the S&P 500 to be around 1,000 right now...
    Positive BST transactions with Timbuk3, coindeuce, charlottedude.


  • << <i>As with all of MGL's previous posts, he got this one totally wrong. He is still batting 0 for ???

    His no 1 pick does not even make the back pages
    worldwide double digit inflation?
    Russia and who? >>



    He is still swinging away at AMZN and FB...he is probably still shorting them.
    Positive BST transactions with Timbuk3, coindeuce, charlottedude.


  • << <i>

    << <i>Glicker was dead nuts on. >>


    Where's is Glicker??? >>



    In his bunker watching Fox News.
    Positive BST transactions with Timbuk3, coindeuce, charlottedude.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>As usual, MGLicker posted a moronic prediction that (thus far) hasn't come true. The stock market and the economy are not the same thing...the recent meltdown in Chinese stocks proves that Chinese stocks are down, not the Chinese economy. China's GDP is only growing at a 7% rate...how terrible...MGLicker was a delusional tea party guy who one year ago predicted the S&P 500 to be around 1,000 right now... >>



    From where I sit it looks like a darn good prediction. What does a 7% Chinese "growth" mean? Is that just half as many bridges and cities to nowhere being built? In most industrial nations the state of the stock market closely parallels the state of the economy and its growth. They might vary by 0-9 months but generally they seem pretty close to me. The Chinese govt has strongly intervened in the stock market to keep prices from falling. I'd not be surprised if they started jailing/executing traders for shorting....lol. Sure looks like an "economic downturn" to me. Commodities across the world have been hammered in 2015, much of that coming from a reduced demand out of China. Last I checked, commodities falling off the cliff isn't exactly the recipe for "prime economic growth,".....though quite often the precursor to recessions. MGL's prediction on the S&P is probably reasonable too....though maybe a few years early.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is the Chinese market down 30% or up 80%?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Is the Chinese market down 30% or up 80%? >>



    Let's take a look at a 15-year chart? Why 15 years? Because it will make my point for me image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Is the Chinese market down 30% or up 80%? >>



    Seems like both of those not applicable. The OP was talking about 2015....nothing else. The Chinese stock market has retraced back to August 2014 levels, and lost >100% of the 2015 gains....supporting the OP's original post. In fact it has dipped as low as levels last seen in Dec 2013 and Jan-Feb 2013. It's already broken through 2 key layers of support. Down 23% currently from the 2015 high. Spin it any way you like...but this is 2015.

    As far as MLG's inflation prediction, if you consider non-US countries, there are dozens of them experiencing strong, and even double digit inflation....especially emerging nations (ie saddled with US dollar debt). Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Venezuela, Egypt, Ukraine, Syria, Iran, Argentina, Belarus, Sudan, etc. While North America, Europe, and Australia are low, you have South America, Africa, Russia, Middle East, and Asia with much generally much higher rates. Bifurcation is not applicable to only coins. If I choose 4% as the line, half the world's nations have inflation above this level. Choosing 2% or 3% as the line, most of the world has significant inflation.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Long chart for the Shanghai composite index

    (hit "1 year", "10 year" or "Max" to get the Big Picture for Chinese stocks; you can also hit the little calendar to cherry-pick your specific date range image )

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ok then, so discussion of the stock market is moot since it is not a reflection of the economy as so often brought in these forums in regards to the US economy and US stocks.

    So what evidence is there of a downturn in China's economy?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here are the latest "Related Headlines" to stories, from the page linked above. Any "evidence" about China to glean from these??

    China GDP Expands 1.7% QoQ in Q2
    China GDP Growth Steady in Q2
    China Trade Surplus Widens in June
    China Inflation Rate Accelerates in June
    China Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 4.85%
    China Inflation Rate Eases in May
    China Trade Surplus Widens More than Expected
    China Cuts Interest Rate to 5.1%
    China Inflation Rate Rises to 1.5% in April
    China Trade Surplus Rises More Than Expected
    China Cuts Reserve Ratio by 1%
    China Quarterly GDP Growth Hits Record Low
    China GDP Growth at 6-Year Low
    China Trade Surplus Narrows on Falling Exports
    China Inflation Rate Steady in March
    China Inflation Rate Up to 1.4%
    China's Trade Surplus at New Record High in February
    China Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 5.35%
    China Inflation Rate Eases to 5-Year Low
    China Posts Highest Trade Surplus on Record in January

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>....So what evidence is there of a downturn in China's economy? >>



    You ought to keep up on what your own guy, Lacy Hunt says.....lol

    I certainly don't think the Chinese SM being down so much from earlier in 2015 is a moot point. It's quite important and fits in very well the with the 8 yr business/economic confidence cycles. If I were trying to analyze the Chinese economy I certainly wouldn't hang my hat on "statistics" coming from "official" sources. Rather, I'd utilize what independent analysts come up with. At least analysts not "in-country" have no fear of being jailed for their views. Here in the US you just don't get the govt grants and pork when you don't play along. In China you get the Laogai...that's if you're lucky. image

    It's funny that now when you make a forecast for a short period in the future, you're being held "responsible" for 10-30 year chart history as well ?????????????????? But, I'll play along. Using Baley's MAX chart it looks to me like China SM peaked in Dec 2007. That mania rise in 2006-2007 looks similar to 2014-2015...not stable and not steady....ie bubble-like. My guess would be that 2015 was the final "bounce" from the 2008-2013 decline. Fwiw the numbers I mentioned earlier on China were from the FXI large cap ETF. It can't be a positive sign that it has retraced to 2013 levels. Interesting that 7-1/2 yrs after the 2007 China SM peak, it's there again in 2015...fitting into a possible 7-8 yr cycle.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And if the Chinese stock market hits a new high in the 2-3 years then what of your analysis?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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