The coming bear market in rare coins

Coinbot · May 30, 2014 11:19AM

Does anyone else see the inevitable crash on the horizon? So far its all shaping up as it has in the past. PM's are in decline. The Fed is tapering (tightening). A large hoard of dubious origin has been dumped on the market.

I shudder to think of what a 50% retracement in coin and gold values would do to me personally but we all need to realize that the party cant go on forever.

Thoughts?

DennisH · May 30, 2014 11:21AM

I don't see it happening.

Yorkshireman · May 30, 2014 11:22AM

Gold has already had a 50% retracement of its gain of the last several years.

coppertoning · May 30, 2014 11:24AM

I would not mind if my interest tanked for a while.

Not happening though

derryb · May 30, 2014 11:25AM

Cash will temporarily be king when it comes to deciding where to invest. During this period investment/asset prices will decline. At the right prices cash will re-enter the markets.

Coinbot · May 30, 2014 11:30AM

I am sure this was said "last time" as well. Stocks in 00 real estate in 07. No one ever gets it. Of course thats the design of the market, to fool the most of us most of the time.

JCMhouston · May 30, 2014 11:36AM

That will be good, maybe i'll be able to pick up a few pieces that have gotten out of my price range.

Walkerguy21D · May 30, 2014 11:41AM

I don't see a crash happening either.
I see a gradual long term and possibly permanent decline in the hobby as a whole though - but I think the 'exceptional' coins will probably
hold up pretty well, as there will always be some folks with big money looking to own such things.

Baley · May 30, 2014 11:42AM

I've seen many threads with this theme in my time here. My answer is, yes please, I'd like to get my 17XX US type coins at 1/2 price. Especially the gold.

CoinRaritiesOnline · May 30, 2014 11:47AM

I miss Bear.

Coinbot · May 30, 2014 11:49AM

I am talking about the kind of crash that you sell into the bottom of - out of disgust. When stocks took the first dive we thought they were bargains then after the second we were all nervous but some adventures doubled down. When they swooned again and went lower than imaginable many sold out in disgust and of rational logic. The difference is that stocks are companies that produce and employ and even real estate is homes that we need to live in. The bottom in rare coins is what? There is no P/E because there is no E. They are entirely an emotional figment... I am a collector as well as the rest of you. My net worth is largely in this asset class. But dear god what if it was to occur? A serious counterfit operation that is well backed passes coins off that pcgs grades. They stop using coins alltogether and then they go the way of stamp collections after email...

bring out your dead...

EagleEye · May 30, 2014 11:55AM

inevitable Coins have been selling in auction, at shows and on line pretty well. The dregs need to be discounted a bit and quality stuff sells very easily. To me there is nothing inevitable on the horizon.

PM's are in decline This can be explained by knowing that gold is in a speculative bubble that is unwinding. Gold and silver dropping really has nothing to do with the coin market, except in the influence it has on bullion related items.

dubious The Saddle Ridge coins will enhance the market. It is hardly being dumped on the market.

The coin market has had its share of pumps and dump scenarios in the past. I don't think the current market is pumped up at all. In a hypothetical scenario where the market dips 50%, I think most collectors will jump at the chance to buy coins at 50% of these levels, but that would push prices higher, back to current levels, or higher.

Justacommeman · May 30, 2014 11:56AM

<< I am talking about the kind of crash that you sell into the bottom of - out of disgust. When stocks took the first dive we thought they were bargains then after the second we were all nervous but some adventures doubled down. When they swooned again and went lower than imaginable many sold out in disgust and of rational logic. The difference is that stocks are companies that produce and employ and even real estate is homes that we need to live in. The bottom in rare coins is what? There is no P/E because there is no E. They are entirely an emotional figment... I am a collector as well as the rest of you. My net worth is largely in this asset class. But dear god what if it was to occur? A serious counterfit operation that is well backed passes coins off that pcgs grades. They stop using coins alltogether and then they go the way of stamp collections after email...

bring out your dead... >>

Sleeping weight is my suggestion. If you are worried about it start selling now. I wouldn't have my net worth over 30% in any one asset class at this point in my life. Especially in non fungible assists like coins unless I was a pro at it and had the means to maneuver quickly.

MJ

Manorcourtman · May 30, 2014 12:00PM

The know it alls always come out of the woodwork when someone starts a thread like this. It is highly entertaining.

mrearlygold · May 30, 2014 12:00PM

Some coins go up, some coins go down.

MrEureka · May 30, 2014 12:05PM

I can predict with 100% certainty that a bear market is coming. I just can't say exactly when.

But seriously, much of the coin market is already in a bear market. Has been for quite a while. Yet blood is hardly running in the streets.

jdimmick · May 30, 2014 12:06PM

I personally could see PM's continuing to soften a bit more gold 1100's silver 16's (I hate the stuff anyway) Made some good money in it, but I hate it with a passion.

The everyday coins and dreck I could see continuing to soften or at least getting harder to place. Some of the price sheets really need to be corrected to show what's already transpiring

The market for the lower grade keys and semi keys is getting non existant, you practically have to give it away, will get worse, those collectors of low grade sets are long gone now

as far as the high end , rarities and good fresh stuff, aint going to happen, prices for the stuff I want just continue to explode in price. I am literally priced out of the market. 50k here , 20k there on every coin I want is just insane.

Wait till Gene Gardner prices realized, it will be out of this world.

Coupdescrounge · May 30, 2014 12:08PM

There has been such a proliferation of counterfeiting, Im' kind of surprised there hasn't been more of a decline. Who in their right mind would get in this hobby right now? You can barely trust anything anymore. People who say, "buy from a reputable source" are forgetting the other end of the transaction where the individual trys to sell into a market that has no consumer confidence in him/her.
Sure, a guy can buy from the mint, apmex, coin dealer z, but hows he gonna unload them when he needs cash? That's what will usher in the next big downturn. I just don't think enough have gotten the memo yet.

As people get stuck with these fake slabs it'll be a trickle and eventually most will find other avenues of joy.

3keepSECRETif2rDEAD · May 30, 2014 12:13PM

I sure hope it crashes to rock-bottom lows...then I could start chipping away at some of the keys for my Morgan dollar set

Erik

Kaline6 · May 30, 2014 12:14PM

Tide come in, tide go out.

Sky never fall.

DIMEMAN · May 30, 2014 12:18PM

>>>The know it alls always come out of the woodwork when someone starts a thread like this. It is highly entertaining. <<<

+1

Also, as someone already stated.....PM's have NOTHING to do with COIN collecting!

MGLICKER · May 30, 2014 12:24PM

<< I shudder to think of what a 50% retracement in coin and gold values would do to me personally but we all need to realize that the party cant go on forever. >>

Then you have too much invested in coins.

Goldbully · May 30, 2014 12:25PM

If you can pick 'em, then you can prosper.

I just made that one up.

3keepSECRETif2rDEAD · May 30, 2014 12:34PM

<< If you can pick 'em, then you can prosper. >>

Erik

CoinJunkie · May 30, 2014 12:35PM

<< But seriously, much of the coin market is already in a bear market. Has been for quite a while. Yet blood is hardly running in the streets. >>

I think it'll probably get worse before it gets better. For that reason, I'm mostly on the sidelines
unless the coin is a monster or priced too attractively to pass on.

FWIW, I think the people who are claiming PM prices have nothing to do with coin prices are out to lunch.

pennyannie · May 30, 2014 12:55PM

Oh this is just great, now that I have spent the last six months buying 2000 face in silver dimes, quarters and halves. On the bright side the next 2000 face will be cheaper. I knew I should have stuck with cd's that pay me about 6 cents a month per thousand.

DIMEMAN · May 30, 2014 12:59PM

>>>FWIW, I think the people who are claiming PM prices have nothing to do with coin prices are out to lunch.<<<

Do you really think the price of silver has an effect on the the price of a 95-O dime or a 93-s dollar or a 14-D cent....

or thousands of other collector coins! I think not. only coins that are worth close to bullion content would be effected.

Copper would not be effected in any way.

MrEureka · May 30, 2014 1:06PM

Do you really think the price of silver has an effect on the the price of a 95-O dime or a 93-s dollar or a 14-D cent....

I do, for a number of reasons.

First, many people believe that there's a connection between the markets, and they act accordingly.

Second, when people are making money in one market, they tend to spend more freely in others, even if for no other reason than that they can. Same thing happens in reverse in bear markets.

Third, many of the same forces that drive the bullion market, e.g., the money supply and inflation, drive the rare coin market.

DIMEMAN · May 30, 2014 1:24PM

Mr E. I respectively disagree on all points.

I have been collecting coins since 1961 and the price of silver and gold has been all over the place between then and now. It has not effected me or the hundreds of collectors I know personally.

And to me people who collect bullion are not coin collectors.....they are metal investors.

Tookybandit · May 30, 2014 1:31PM

<< 

bring out your dead... >>

"I think I'll go for a walk now. I feel happy!!!"

EagleEye · May 30, 2014 2:49PM

They thought the same thing in 1884, 1916, 1935, 1965, 1990, 2001 and 2008.

nwcoast · May 30, 2014 3:52PM

<< I am talking about the kind of crash that you sell into the bottom of - out of disgust. When stocks took the first dive we thought they were bargains then after the second we were all nervous but some adventures doubled down. When they swooned again and went lower than imaginable many sold out in disgust and of rational logic. The difference is that stocks are companies that produce and employ and even real estate is homes that we need to live in. The bottom in rare coins is what? There is no P/E because there is no E. They are entirely an emotional figment... I am a collector as well as the rest of you. My net worth is largely in this asset class. But dear god what if it was to occur? A serious counterfit operation that is well backed passes coins off that pcgs grades. They stop using coins alltogether and then they go the way of stamp collections after email...

bring out your dead... >>

Which crash are you referring to here???
1987??
2001 and the dot com bubble? Climaxing with the dagger of 911!
Or the most recent bear market 2007-8 when the real estate bubble burst bringing the economy to its knees....

Though some of the .com and high flying tech stocks never fully recovered, for the most part the stock market has recovered from all these debacles AND YOU would have done VERY well having doubled down into it when everyone else was selling!

It sounds to me like You may have too high a percentage of your investment portfolio held in coins....
The OP throws around PE ratios and stock earnings and valuations as having some significant meaning and value.....
If nothing else, you should have learned through all these bear markets that they MEAN (i was going to say NOTHING) VERY little!

I've sold stocks and bought coins....
Some sell stock and buy art....
Cars.....
Comics....
Bonds....
Metals...
And the list goes on..... Buy what you like and what you know something about...

At least coins can be held in your hands and appreciated for their beauty! There's something there!!!
Stock certificates can be used as toilet paper in some cases!!!! Unless you collect the nice old ones that 'were indeed engraving art'

I'm of the opinion that you shouldn't keep all your eggs in one basket- unless you've got a really brilliant crystal ball......

jhdfla · May 30, 2014 4:19PM

Flip a coin....

we could just as easily be on the verge of a new bull market in coins.

The coming market probably lies somewhere in between

Elcontador · May 30, 2014 4:27PM

<< I can predict with 100% certainty that a bear market is coming. I just can't say exactly when.

But seriously, much of the coin market is already in a bear market. Has been for quite a while. Yet blood is hardly running in the streets. >>

I agree with the above comment. I can't comment about an overall coming bear market in numismatics. However, in the series and grades of coins I collect, I have noticed a material increase in populations of what for me are expensive coins which are scarce in higher grades in the last ten years. I have seen some of these coins which were made in hand, others on various websites. I don't like any of them, and as a result, I won't buy these coins in these grades. 1) Despite the pop increase they are still expensive for me. 2) I think too many of them are marginal for the grade - that's stickered and non-stickered coins I have seen.

As an example, there are now more 1912 D Liberty Nickels in MS 66 than the 1912 P. The former typically runs four times as much, if not more. No thanks.

I don't know how many people feel like I do, and whether this will have any effect on the market.

dbcoin · May 30, 2014 9:26PM

Those though know a lot more about coins and money than me are selling stocks and buying coins. Rumor has it that David Hall himself is selling stocks (fact, he is selling CLCT) and buying coins (conjecture).

Walkerguy21D · May 30, 2014 11:00PM

<< The know it alls always come out of the woodwork when someone starts a thread like this. It is highly entertaining. >>

Along with the know-nothings.....

bidask · May 30, 2014 11:10PM

Even if I use a stock certificate for toilet paper I can still get dividends in the mail.

GotTheBug · May 30, 2014 11:36PM

One way or another it doesn't really matter to me personally. Although I try to break even at the very worst when I trade or sell the occasional piece I consider the money I spend on coins to be "gone" and since it's a hobby, well, hobbies cost money anyhow. I can't take any of it with me and life is too short to worry about nickels and dimes all the time (or Liberty Seated halves

)

I would approach the investment aspect of numismatics with trepidation which is why I don't invest in coins.

RedTiger · May 31, 2014 12:34AM

Of course there will be another bear market for coins. Just like their will be another bear market in stocks, real estate, bonds, and just about everything else. The questions are when it will happen, and how big a bear it might be? Will it be a little bear cub, with a 20% drop in prices? An angry brown bear at -33% or a big grizzly at -50% or more? Will it start sooner (a year or two), later (three to five years) or much later (ten or more years out)?

The answers are that no one knows, though some people have a better guess at it than others. The forum has some of those people. Unfortunately, it is also has people that like to cry wolf to get attention like the thread originator. There are people that are pretend experts. Even real experts often have a hard time at the difficult game of market timing.

Most collectors have enough in other assets that the value of their coin collection might be the least of their concerns if a big grizzly bear shows up. Those that have more than a hobby amount in their coins may have crossed the line from hobby into something else, and had best know how to steer a boat and hoist a sail or take down a sail in a storm.

DaveWcoins · May 31, 2014 12:45AM

<< Flip a coin....

we could just as easily be on the verge of a new bull market in coins.

The coming market probably lies somewhere in between

>>

“In times like these, it is helpful to remember that there have always been times like these”

-- Paul Harvey.

ColonelJessup · May 31, 2014 12:57AM

<< A large hoard of dubious origin has been dumped on the market. ......

Thoughts? >>

Large hoard? I hope you're not referring to Saddle Ridge. Now if you were talking about an overhang of a hundred tonnes of gold being dumped, be assured that Goldman-Sachs, the Chinese and COMEX will have it sorted out before lunch . . D

The sky is not falling. Just whistle a happy tune and carry an umbrella. Look at the VIX.

Here a trading tip from generations of cynical yet self-pitying coin dealers. Gold always goes down before a Long Beach Show. . .

ricko · May 31, 2014 4:09AM

Predictions and worries.... all for naught. Learn about investments, coins, metals.... diversify and pay attention. No one can predict the future with 100% confidence and accuracy. Many get lucky and then ride the wave as an authoritative guru. Cheers, RickO

thisnamztaken · May 31, 2014 8:44AM

I think Peter Sellers' character in "Being There" pretty much nailed it.

Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.

President "Bobby": In the garden.

Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.

President "Bobby": Spring and summer.

Chance the Gardener: Yes.

President "Bobby": Then fall and winter.

Chance the Gardener: Yes.

Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy.

Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring.

metalmeister · May 31, 2014 8:52AM

Drink wine, Travel, Good health, enjoy family and don't have all of your money in coins. I just said all.
However when the precious metals cycle starts again, coin values usually leap ahead of the precious metals content on the more common, best is to own the best you can buy with the best eye appeal.

coinkat · May 31, 2014 9:25AM

Being There may have been Peter Sellers last film-

thisnamztaken · May 31, 2014 9:46AM

<< Being There may have been Peter Sellers last film- >>

I watch it once every year or so and it still makes me laugh out loud in several parts of it.

cladking · May 31, 2014 9:56AM

<< 

I watch it once every year or so and it still makes me laugh out loud in several parts of it. >>

...One of the best movies of all time.

It seems we may be approaching late summer for most US coins. Seasons come and go and time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.

coinkat · May 31, 2014 10:05AM

If you are a fan of Peter Sellers, watch Dr. Strange Love

Great cast and Sellers plays three different parts. George C Scott was terrific- one of his best roles as well

magikbilly · May 31, 2014 10:17AM

A fan of Sellers will notice he created Lolita's "Dr. Zemph" ("Ve Americans believe"...), with his quartet of psychiatrists, completely from the character Mr. Popesco in The Third Man ("keep ze pack").

Eric

I can't call anyone "Bobby" without remembering that scene and him.

jhdfla · May 31, 2014 10:35AM

<< If you are a fan of Peter Sellers, watch Dr. Strange Love

Great cast and Sellers plays three different parts. George C Scott was terrific- one of his best roles as well >>

Two of Kubrick's films are in my favorite 5 movies of all time, and this is one of them.

The coming bear market in rare coins

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