<< <i>Do you really think the price of silver has an effect on the the price of a 95-O dime or a 93-s dollar or a 14-D cent....
I do, for a number of reasons.
First, many people believe that there's a connection between the markets, and they act accordingly.
Second, when people are making money in one market, they tend to spend more freely in others, even if for no other reason than that they can. Same thing happens in reverse in bear markets.
Third, many of the same forces that drive the bullion market, e.g., the money supply and inflation, drive the rare coin market. >>
I do not see a large decline in prices for rare and eye appealing coins at any time in the near future( 10 years).There may be some stagnation, where a 1913 lib nickel or a 1794 dollar may not increase, but to fall by 50%, NOT.
There are coins that are right for investment, and many others that are wrong, and could see a large decrease in demand and price. But those coins have never seen any serious price increase over the last 20 years.
I collected lib nickels in MS 65 and Proof 65 when I first started back collecting(1992). I did buy some rarer ms examples, and they did fine over time. But the generic dates may be bought for the same amounts today as they did back then. And could get cheaper.
Bullion only based coins of the modern era are probably most susceptible to the declines that may come in metals. Some will sustain their value, but they need to be rare or at least scarce. And if there comes a period where prices are declining for all series, and grades, the knowledgeable collectors will simply put their coins in a deeper hole and wait.
Some forced sales could be an opportunity for the wise collector. Take the spring of 2009, just after the debacle of the mortgage and housing market that started in 2006. 25 million(cost) brought about 17 million at the Cincy sale in April 2009. I was there and wish I bought more. Come forward to the giant sales of 2012 and 2013, prices rebounded and then went through the roof at Newman in November. Let's see what happens in June and then October for the Gardner sale.
The thing I don't understand or want to accept is the reality many hold that there can actually be this notion of a bear market in coins. Coins will always sell. Many collectors and non collectors who have money saved in a retirement account, paypal, bank, just got paid and have extra cash from their job, can always buy coins. Many of those people with the means to do it exist and they will always exist, so the notion of an overall bear market in coins is to me is a bit ridiculous. Maybe you can surmise this bear market if you look through other metrics or means like the PCGS 3000 coin index but what does that really tell you? Isn't that just like looking at price indexes off the NASDAQ or the S&P 500? Coins should never be seen through a stock market analyst's lens by group in my opinion. Let's never forget about the many many buyers who buy in the minor leagues or mid tier leagues of coins. There will always be low tier buyers, mid tier, and top tiers always and forever. They will never go away for their dates to be filled or their upgrades to be made. Is anyone suggesting coins are to be looked at as an actual long term investment? Shame on those for buy them as such. For a seller on eBay selling $500-$2000 coins, I don't think they will ever see such thing as a bear market or bull market for that matter exist because to their customer base, they will always be filling that need in providing the coins. Thinking about bear markets or bull markets in the coin world, to me is just more bull than anything.
<< <i>The thing I don't understand or want to accept is the reality many hold that there can actually be this notion of a bear market in coins. Coins will always sell. Many collectors and non collectors who have money saved in a retirement account, paypal, bank, just got paid and have extra cash from their job, can always buy coins. Many of those people with the means to do it exist and they will always exist, so the notion of an overall bear market in coins is to me is a bit ridiculous. Maybe you can surmise this bear market if you look through other metrics or means like the PCGS 3000 coin index but what does that really tell you? Isn't that just like looking at price indexes off the NASDAQ or the S&P 500? Coins should never be seen through a stock market analyst's lens by group in my opinion. Let's never forget about the many many buyers who buy in the minor leagues or mid tier leagues of coins. There will always be low tier buyers, mid tier, and top tiers always and forever. They will never go away for their dates to be filled or their upgrades to be made. Is anyone suggesting coins are to be looked at as an actual long term investment? Shame on those for buy them as such. For a seller on eBay selling $500-$2000 coins, I don't think they will ever see such thing as a bear market or bull market for that matter exist because to their customer base, they will always be filling that need in providing the coins. Thinking about bear markets or bull markets in the coin world, to me is just more bull than anything. >>
I guess to the extent demand and supply define a "market" there is some correlation to stocks and their bull/bear markets. It would be hard to argue other than that the loss of demand in stamp collecting has seen that "market" decimated even though the same arguments could be made that as a collecting hobby it should not have been viewed as an investment by its collectors in the first place.
I am afraid we are at or near a bear market in rare coins for a number of reasons:
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot). 2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week). 3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM. 4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay. 5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time. 6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade). 7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins. 8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity. 9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above). 10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC.
<< <i>The thing I don't understand or want to accept is the reality many hold that there can actually be this notion of a bear market in coins. Coins will always sell. >>
Anything will "always sell" if the price is right. A bear market prevails when the average selling price is trending downward over time. So it's a valid concept for coins as much as stocks or bonds. At least with stocks, you can hedge against it and hang onto your holdings. I'm not aware of a direct way to do that with coins.
<< <i>Does anyone else see the inevitable crash on the horizon? So far its all shaping up as it has in the past. PM's are in decline. The Fed is tapering (tightening). A large hoard of dubious origin has been dumped on the market.
I shudder to think of what a 50% retracement in coin and gold values would do to me personally but we all need to realize that the party cant go on forever.
Thoughts? >>
look for a low in gold silver 2nd week of june under $1230.00..too much fed money sloshing around to chase assets...in a couple of years . yes a deep drop in world economy........................... party now worry later
<< <i>I am afraid we are at or near a bear market in rare coins for a number of reasons:
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot). 2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week). 3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM. 4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay. 5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time. 6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade). 7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins. 8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity. 9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above). 10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC. >>
the middle class collector is in the dumps.... all the government bailouts never really helped them .. so the cheaper coins are quiet dealers with high priced coins are doing well
I have no idea how the market is going to absorb Newman, Gardner and Bentley all in such a short period of time.... without prices falling at least temporarily.
<< <i>I am afraid we are at or near a bear market in rare coins for a number of reasons:
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot). 2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week). 3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM. 4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay. 5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time. 6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade). 7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins. 8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity. 9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above). 10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC. >>
For what I collect I don't see anything here that makes me concerned about my interests.
<< <i>Does anyone else see the inevitable crash on the horizon? So far its all shaping up as it has in the past. PM's are in decline. The Fed is tapering (tightening). A large hoard of dubious origin has been dumped on the market.
I shudder to think of what a 50% retracement in coin and gold values would do to me personally but we all need to realize that the party cant go on forever.
Thoughts? >>
Dubious??
One too many Doobies or what?
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
<< <i>inevitable Coins have been selling in auction, at shows and on line pretty well. The dregs need to be discounted a bit and quality stuff sells very easily. To me there is nothing inevitable on the horizon.
PM's are in decline This can be explained by knowing that gold is in a speculative bubble that is unwinding. Gold and silver dropping really has nothing to do with the coin market, except in the influence it has on bullion related items.
dubious The Saddle Ridge coins will enhance the market. It is hardly being dumped on the market.
The coin market has had its share of pumps and dump scenarios in the past. I don't think the current market is pumped up at all. In a hypothetical scenario where the market dips 50%, I think most collectors will jump at the chance to buy coins at 50% of these levels, but that would push prices higher, back to current levels, or higher. >>
I think what is pumped up are colorful Morgans and Commems.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I am afraid we are at or near a bear market in rare coins for a number of reasons:
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot). 2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week). 3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM. 4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay. 5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time. 6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade). 7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins. 8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity. 9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above). 10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC. >>
Strip clubs and sugar babies ??
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Comments
"Everything is on its way to somewhere. Everything." - George Malley, Phenomenon
http://www.american-legacy-coins.com
<< <i> I am a collector as well as the rest of you. My net worth is largely in this asset class. >>
CG
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
AB
<< <i>Do you really think the price of silver has an effect on the the price of a 95-O dime or a 93-s dollar or a 14-D cent....
I do, for a number of reasons.
First, many people believe that there's a connection between the markets, and they act accordingly.
Second, when people are making money in one market, they tend to spend more freely in others, even if for no other reason than that they can. Same thing happens in reverse in bear markets.
Third, many of the same forces that drive the bullion market, e.g., the money supply and inflation, drive the rare coin market. >>
Good points!
or a 1794 dollar may not increase, but to fall by 50%, NOT.
There are coins that are right for investment, and many others that are wrong, and could see a large decrease in demand and price. But those coins have never seen
any serious price increase over the last 20 years.
I collected lib nickels in MS 65 and Proof 65 when I first started back collecting(1992). I did buy some rarer ms examples, and they did fine over time. But the generic dates
may be bought for the same amounts today as they did back then. And could get cheaper.
Bullion only based coins of the modern era are probably most susceptible to the declines that may come in metals. Some will sustain their value, but they need to be rare or at least scarce.
And if there comes a period where prices are declining for all series, and grades, the knowledgeable collectors will simply put their coins in a deeper hole and wait.
Some forced sales could be an opportunity for the wise collector. Take the spring of 2009, just after the debacle of the mortgage and housing market that started in 2006. 25 million(cost) brought about 17 million at the Cincy sale
in April 2009. I was there and wish I bought more. Come forward to the giant sales of 2012 and 2013, prices rebounded and then went through the roof at Newman in November.
Let's see what happens in June and then October for the Gardner sale.
<< <i>If you are a fan of Peter Sellers, watch Dr. Strange Love
Great cast and Sellers plays three different parts. George C Scott was terrific- one of his best roles as well >>
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb"!
This was one of the three or four best movies of all time as well. And there were gold coins in it.
<< <i>Even if I use a stock certificate for toilet paper I can still get dividends in the mail. >>
Very good point!!!
I'm very fond of dividends...and reinvesting them over the long haul.
Much wisdom coming through the responses in this thread!
Interesting to note: Dr. strangelove IS one of my favorite movies of ALL TIME as well.....
Being There is excellent as well. Peter Sellers was a creative genius indeed.
Thanks for the reminders of the brilliance in the dialog from that film...
Adds a lot to this discussion.
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
<< <i>The thing I don't understand or want to accept is the reality many hold that there can actually be this notion of a bear market in coins. Coins will always sell. Many collectors and non collectors who have money saved in a retirement account, paypal, bank, just got paid and have extra cash from their job, can always buy coins. Many of those people with the means to do it exist and they will always exist, so the notion of an overall bear market in coins is to me is a bit ridiculous. Maybe you can surmise this bear market if you look through other metrics or means like the PCGS 3000 coin index but what does that really tell you? Isn't that just like looking at price indexes off the NASDAQ or the S&P 500? Coins should never be seen through a stock market analyst's lens by group in my opinion. Let's never forget about the many many buyers who buy in the minor leagues or mid tier leagues of coins. There will always be low tier buyers, mid tier, and top tiers always and forever. They will never go away for their dates to be filled or their upgrades to be made. Is anyone suggesting coins are to be looked at as an actual long term investment? Shame on those for buy them as such. For a seller on eBay selling $500-$2000 coins, I don't think they will ever see such thing as a bear market or bull market for that matter exist because to their customer base, they will always be filling that need in providing the coins. Thinking about bear markets or bull markets in the coin world, to me is just more bull than anything. >>
I guess to the extent demand and supply define a "market" there is some correlation to stocks and their bull/bear markets. It would be hard to argue other than that the loss of demand in stamp collecting has seen that "market" decimated even though the same arguments could be made that as a collecting hobby it should not have been viewed as an investment by its collectors in the first place.
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot).
2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week).
3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM.
4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay.
5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time.
6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade).
7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins.
8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity.
9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above).
10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC.
<< <i>The thing I don't understand or want to accept is the reality many hold that there can actually be this notion of a bear market in coins. Coins will always sell. >>
Anything will "always sell" if the price is right. A bear market prevails when the average selling price
is trending downward over time. So it's a valid concept for coins as much as stocks or bonds. At least
with stocks, you can hedge against it and hang onto your holdings. I'm not aware of a direct way to do
that with coins.
<< <i>Does anyone else see the inevitable crash on the horizon? So far its all shaping up as it has in the past. PM's are in decline. The Fed is tapering (tightening). A large hoard of dubious origin has been dumped on the market.
I shudder to think of what a 50% retracement in coin and gold values would do to me personally but we all need to realize that the party cant go on forever.
Thoughts? >>
look for a low in gold silver 2nd week of june under $1230.00..too much fed money sloshing around to chase assets...in a couple of years . yes a deep drop in world economy........................... party now worry later
<< <i>I am afraid we are at or near a bear market in rare coins for a number of reasons:
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot).
2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week).
3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM.
4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay.
5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time.
6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade).
7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins.
8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity.
9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above).
10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC. >>
the middle class collector is in the dumps.... all the government bailouts never really helped them .. so the cheaper coins are quiet
dealers with high priced coins are doing well
<< <i>I am afraid we are at or near a bear market in rare coins for a number of reasons:
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot).
2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week).
3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM.
4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay.
5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time.
6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade).
7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins.
8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity.
9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above).
10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC. >>
For what I collect I don't see anything here that makes me concerned about my interests.
Latin American Collection
<< <i>Does anyone else see the inevitable crash on the horizon? So far its all shaping up as it has in the past. PM's are in decline. The Fed is tapering (tightening). A large hoard of dubious origin has been dumped on the market.
I shudder to think of what a 50% retracement in coin and gold values would do to me personally but we all need to realize that the party cant go on forever.
Thoughts? >>
Dubious??
One too many Doobies or what?
The name is LEE!
<< <i>I can predict with 100% certainty that a bear market is coming. I just can't say exactly when.
But seriously, much of the coin market is already in a bear market. Has been for quite a while. Yet blood is hardly running in the streets. >>
what do you mean blood is hardly running in the streets?
Can you talk about that ?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>inevitable Coins have been selling in auction, at shows and on line pretty well. The dregs need to be discounted a bit and quality stuff sells very easily. To me there is nothing inevitable on the horizon.
PM's are in decline This can be explained by knowing that gold is in a speculative bubble that is unwinding. Gold and silver dropping really has nothing to do with the coin market, except in the influence it has on bullion related items.
dubious The Saddle Ridge coins will enhance the market. It is hardly being dumped on the market.
The coin market has had its share of pumps and dump scenarios in the past. I don't think the current market is pumped up at all. In a hypothetical scenario where the market dips 50%, I think most collectors will jump at the chance to buy coins at 50% of these levels, but that would push prices higher, back to current levels, or higher. >>
I think what is pumped up are colorful Morgans and Commems.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I am afraid we are at or near a bear market in rare coins for a number of reasons:
1. Dealer liquidity problems I have noticed at shows, a desire to find some other numismatic area, desire to unload material (especially big ticket), downsize business investment, complaining people coming in door don't have any money or anything to sell (they blew it out on the bay) move exclusively to bullion related material with a sideline in something like WPM (that market is hot).
2. It increasingly appears to be a good time to buy with little pressure (bids going way up every week).
3. The CDN recently discussed a "two tier coin market." In essence the market for expensive, stickered, +coins vs other material. The real coin and currency market IMO for the most part is numismatic material in the 300 range and lower which can be purchased by people of ordinary means. The fellow with 2000 to spend may try for a $20 USGTC or AGE / AGB. Then spend the left over possibly bulking up on MS63-65 Dollars, Commems or USM.
4. The summer doldrums on ebay have arrived. Unless one wants to take the plunge and start something at 99c, sales are extremely slow. For the buyer there may some good pick ups out there (this is the polite term the forum uses for rip). This is the time when even if they buy they may not pay.
5. Bullion prices stagnant, silver below beginning of year. I think bullion could be about to drop big time.
6. Stagnant Bids or decreases in the Greysheet. A bullion mix of Gold, Silver, Platinum has outperformed Walkers, Dollars, and Commems. If you read your greysheet the 1936 WLH in MS 65 jumped from 175 to 225 bid just recently (a nice ray of sunshine). One fellow in the coin club jumped on this and bought one BIN for 180 and a CAC piece went for approximately 210 at auction on the bay that same day, below CDN Bid. Somebody read the sheet and jumped on a nice pickup (it was a really nice coin - a beautiful brilliant gem bu, very clean and nice for the grade).
7. Big ticket coins bringing big bucks at auction being in the headlines but one needs to compare this to sheet to gauge this against sheet the real market impact. Remember these coins are unaffordable to ordinary working people, even many highly paid professionals. Before someone commits large funds to this material they will buy a nice BMW, a boat, their strip club VIP, and have some set aside for a sugar baby. Those things are going to have priority over coins.
8. The weakness in Classic Commems - these coins should be leading a market rally, many are so outrageously cheap. What a fantastic buying opportunity.
9. People who won't or can't pay the money (discussed above).
10. People walking into the bourse room with little or no money or nothing to sell (they blew it all out on ebay). A bourse floor populated by mainly dealers which means little or no profit at the show. You better have fought some buying cash for dealer to dealer activity unless you want a long, depressing weekend. Hopefully, there is a nearby bar or entertainment venue for after show hours to ease the sobering thought you spent a small fortune to attend this show, flying across the country with little or no chance of recovering that cost.
The good news if your looking to increase investment lower coin prices mean more coins! I am looking forward to a summer of going to nice shows in Cali and Florida and buying lots of coins. Classic Commems with low mintages are very high on my target list. Its a good time to bulk up - type, dollars, commems, USGTC. >>
Strip clubs and sugar babies ??
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.