I already see this coming. Buyers complained because of the limited 25th anniv. set and now buyers complain because they cant flip for any profit because of the high mintage. It would be better if 100k, one HH limit.
So, when I last posted about this - I thought there was going to be a one per household limit. Now that is gone, it's not as attractive, but I still think it will be good set - especially as PCGS First Strike. I'll still be ordering in quantity.
It all comes down to mint pricing for me. I believe there is no really big flip on this one. At least short term anyways. I may sock away an unopened box of ten or two just for a wait and see but doing the next day ship a few times just to put a dog in the fight is not my thing. I hope it's priced at 119 or less and it does look like a good set combination. sShould be very popular imo.
<< <i>I'm interested in hearing your rationale on why this set will be so popular in the aftermarket considering the "mint to demand" and "no household limit" thing they are trying. >>
Popular coin with enormous following, RP coin will be the cheapest of the three to acquire - probably $100 raw alone, most likely $150-$160 in a ER or FS 70 holder
Raw proof eagles wholesale for $50.....the RP wont wholesale less than $75, that's $125.......if you are priced at $129, you're downside is about 3%
Would you rather scramble for a limited issue with a 5 HH limit and double your money, or buy to demand and make smaller margins on quantities?
Example of the latter is the 2001 Buffalo $1's.................... >>
I question the use of the "won't" in the above and the $75 figure.
There are always people on eBay who could buy from the Mint, but are buying on eBay.
I think there will be enough flippers on eBay to sell to these people and there won't be any margins. I think the chance for an upside is limited and the downside is lower.
Of course, those first to market will definitely be making a profit. I'm talking those who unfortunately won't list the first couple of days, and that is usually me.
500k sets and I'm in for 1.
If they "mint to demand," I do not expect the sales counters to have them at all, much less first. I do hope the sales counters eventually have them. My luck on the ASEs has been poor. I'd like to try to find a 70 First Strike set of these. Although, I plan to have to make it from eBay purchases. (I'll guess the sales counters won't have them, or will have them only after months.)
<< <i>It all comes down to mint pricing for me. I believe there is no really big flip on this one. At least short term anyways. I may sock away an unopened box of ten or two just for a wait and see but doing the next day ship a few times just to put a dog in the fight is not my thing. I hope it's priced at 119 or less and it does look like a good set combination. sShould be very popular imo. >>
Two essentially "proof" coins (loosely termed) in their little non-wood boxes would be $60 each.
>>The coins, struck in 99.9 percent silver, will be mounted in a custom blue lacquer presentation case accompanied by a Certificate of Authenticity.
I'm thinking it'll be more like $134.95, which I also use to question 7/8 flip-potential calculations.
Mint history tells us.........#1 They have no clue.............#2 If the market calls for 150K then they will mint 300K..............#3 By having no HH limits they are simply trying to make amends for the 25th BS.........#4 They are in NO way prepared for sales over 300K..............Initial sales will be huge with the big guys buying for FS..........after 2 weeks sales will trickle to almost none..............flip ??.........the first sellers on e-bay will make a bit........after that the sealed unopened FS boxes will bring a slight premium............the rest will be similiar to the 2006 sets................That is my prediction.............IMO
<< <i>I question the use of the "won't" in the above and the $75 figure. >>
Of course, always just my opinion, but a reverse proof eagle selling for less than $75........doubt it. Retail regular proofs at $60 at $30 silver, wholesale buyers at $50.
$75 is not a stretch by any means.
Hear that beeping........thats the truck backing up
<< <i>.the first sellers on e-bay will make a bit........after that the sealed unopened FS boxes will bring a slight premium............the rest will be similiar to the 2006 sets >>
It would be great to be similar to the 06 sets in the long run. It's what I'm hoping for. A nice small but eye appealing set at 2x issue after three years+ works for me.
My prediction ( as plausible as any others offered ):
1. The Mint will mint the crap out of these! More sets than the 06 set by ALOT. 2. The first to offer FS 70's will turn a small profit. 3. PCGS/NGC will make the most from this offer 4. The sets will flounder on the market( eBay) for years and turn many off to the series who "loaded up" 5. Minted to order is the Mint code for Load up suckers, we're gonna fleece you till your hearts content.
I wonder if the mint produced very limited quantities of the 25th anniversary sets just to create demand for the next set, which they'll keep pumping out until they've bled all the suckers dry ...
Just look at your downside.......thats all you should be concerned with at this point.
IMO - 300-350k max. Some call for a worst case of 500k, even so - downside is very limited.
Remember, im not looking for a big pop here - just a $155-160 set price wholesale after sales close. Grading game will make you more. Volume will make you some bucks with this one. End of story.
<< <i>My prediction ( as plausible as any others offered ):
1. The Mint will mint the crap out of these! More sets than the 06 set by ALOT. 2. The first to offer FS 70's will turn a small profit. 3. PCGS/NGC will make the most from this offer 4. The sets will flounder on the market( eBay) for years and turn many off to the series who "loaded up" 5. Minted to order is the Mint code for Load up suckers, we're gonna fleece you till your hearts content. >>
Agreed to all points...I don't think they will be money losers but they will not be very profitable..I will still get a few sets but will not be one that is "loading up".....
....as was said earlier, the 2011 RP (and even the S to a lesser extent) is where the money should be going
...I don't think it appropriate to compare price potential of this potentially high mintage set to a 240-270k Buffalo..probably more appropriate for the 2006 Annie set and the Buffalo
...I'm stickin' to 600-800k on these and would not be surprised if it was higher. I would be VERY surprised if it is below 500k
<< <i> 2011 RP (and even the S to a lesser extent) is where the money should be going >>
You have more than a 3% downside risk in these......a crap shoot. >>
Correct but I will stick with bottom feeding 100k mintage coins and deal with the much higher upside potential of those coins....I consider today's prices 6 months after issue to be a great base to rise from.
What venue if you sell, ebay will take all your profit. Private sales some money to be made maybe. Maybe we can hope these become like the 2008 W Buffalos, but doubt it.
<< <i>Correct but I will stick with bottom feeding 100k mintage coins and deal with the much higher upside potential of those coins....I consider today's prices 6 months after issue to be a great base to rise from. >>
How many can you acquire? 10, 50, 100? Probably less than 100. What is your upside profit potential expressed in percentage on that $450 coin? 20%? 25%? They have run a long way already.
30% on a 129 set is a 168 dollar set. IMO, very likely just breaking the sets up for its parts after the sales period. How much money can you place? Unlimited.
Now that the mint will have released three RP coins I think those should be considered a separate series from the regular proofs. >>
Yes that is the issue at hand in my view. If they strike these reverese proofs with some consistency it will allow those of us who missed the 1995w to work on a proof silver eagle set and not face a $3,000 coin. If they end up with say a total of 5-10 reverse proofs in the next dozen years with mintages in the 200,000- 400,000 range a 99,000 mintage 2011P will be some kind of strong as a lowely pr-69. IMHO.
I've sold my last 2011 Anniversary PCGS 70 set for the money that will allow me to buy at least 10 2-coin SF sets based on the following reasoning;
Sitting on 2011 25th Anniversary set is a time bomb of putting all your eggs in one basket - possible milk spots, plus already realized approx 10X issue price fro 2011 RP
I love RP ASE but I'm happy to keep just 2012 and learn from the lessons and try acetone dip them prior to submitting to make sure they are preserved well.
I'm thinking to buy at least 10 sets, hand-pick 4-5 sets and acetone bath them hoping to yield at least 2-3 PCGS 70 FS sets to keep as the sample of PCGS 70 RP ASE without paying obscene prices for them. If all works as expected I'll end up with 20 oz of Silver at the cost of $1500 that will include 2-3 nice PR 70 sets that are well preserved.
And if they're not so popular - the break even point is silver at $75/oz....
Just my 2 cents...but since there won't be as much of an initial ordering "panic" on the phonelines and internet...I'll probably be ordering them in smaller quantities, with less coins per sealed box...for future FS flip potential.
With maybe a maximum of 10 coins ordered in total.
<< <i>I wonder if the mint produced very limited quantities of the 25th anniversary sets just to create demand for the next set, which they'll keep pumping out until they've bled all the suckers dry ... >>
What is going to prevent someone from ordering a bunch of sets, waiting to see if they go up in value (my opinion: they won't go up in value), and then when they don't go up in value, returning the sets.
<< <i>What is going to prevent someone from ordering a bunch of sets, waiting to see if they go up in value (my opinion: they won't go up in value), and then when they don't go up in value, returning the sets. >>
<< <i>What is going to prevent someone from ordering a bunch of sets, waiting to see if they go up in value (my opinion: they won't go up in value), and then when they don't go up in value, returning the sets. >>
<< <i>What is going to prevent someone from ordering a bunch of sets, waiting to see if they go up in value (my opinion: they won't go up in value), and then when they don't go up in value, returning the sets. >>
It will be after they aren't being sold by the Mint before these sets sell for a premium. Have there been other instances where the Mint sold unlimited amounts of a popular coin for only one month? What happened?
If they are priced at 129, IMO no more than a 3% downside risk.
Better than any lottery ticket in town.
As to the "undetermined" "mint to demand" upper number, just inquire with the cool enameled wood box manufacturer......you are limited by the "boxes" you ordered.
<< Have there been other instances where the Mint sold unlimited amounts of a popular coin for only one month? What happened? >>
The 1998-S JFK Silver Burnished Half / RFK Silver Dollar set was on sale for only 6 weeks (if I remember correctly) and was minted to demand. Total mintage for the set was around 62,000 making the half the key to the Kennedy set. Initial price was $59.95, current price for the set is in the low $200's.
<< <i>If silver prices continue dropping during the ASE 2-coin offering, will sales be stronger or weaker? >>
It most likely depends on the price of the set rather than the price of silver....but again...if there is too big a premium over spot it could negatively affect purchases
If I had to bet I would assume that the mint has overestimated sales of this set vs. underestimating it. Someone probably took the first days sales of the 25th set and multiplied that by 28 to arrive at the projected sales of this set, lol.
Possibly so. I'm really on the fence with this set. If the Mint's odometer works properly, I suspect that initial sales will be slow while people hang back and wait to see what the final sales figures will be. The last couple days of ordering could be really heavy.
It's an interesting twist on the normal sales cycle.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Yeah, but if NSA can build a data center in Utah that records every email, phone call, tweet and facebook entry that everyone in the US makes, I had to assume that the Mint could actually track sales made on their own online order system. I probably give the Mint too much benefit of the doubt.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I was just thinking. If the mint does not start shipping these two coin sets till after all orders are taken, then the TV coin shows will not not be selling ( or Hyping these ) till its to late to buy from the mint.
^^^TV shows will order boatloads of these and get them graded immediately, hype + pre-orders on graded sets to commence soon, the hype and pre-orders for 70s will be within the order window.
If they start delivering these soon after order date I would not wait to long on ordering fearing getting others returned sets. Maybe many ordering lots and returning non possible 70s? I'm on the fence too on how many, going to order 2-10 sets jmho
Comments
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Owner/Founder GreatCollections
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<< <i>
<< <i>I'm interested in hearing your rationale on why this set will be so popular in the aftermarket considering the "mint to demand" and "no household limit" thing they are trying. >>
Popular coin with enormous following, RP coin will be the cheapest of the three to acquire - probably $100 raw alone, most likely $150-$160 in a ER or FS 70 holder
Raw proof eagles wholesale for $50.....the RP wont wholesale less than $75, that's $125.......if you are priced at $129, you're downside is about 3%
Would you rather scramble for a limited issue with a 5 HH limit and double your money, or buy to demand and make smaller margins on quantities?
Example of the latter is the 2001 Buffalo $1's.................... >>
I question the use of the "won't" in the above and the $75 figure.
There are always people on eBay who could buy from the Mint, but are buying on eBay.
I think there will be enough flippers on eBay to sell to these people and there won't be any margins. I think the chance for an upside is limited and the downside is lower.
Of course, those first to market will definitely be making a profit. I'm talking those who unfortunately won't list the first couple of days, and that is usually me.
500k sets and I'm in for 1.
If they "mint to demand," I do not expect the sales counters to have them at all, much less first. I do hope the sales counters eventually have them. My luck on the ASEs has been poor. I'd like to try to find a 70 First Strike set of these. Although, I plan to have to make it from eBay purchases. (I'll guess the sales counters won't have them, or will have them only after months.)
<< <i>It all comes down to mint pricing for me. I believe there is no really big flip on this one. At least short term anyways. I may sock away an unopened box of ten or two just for a wait and see but doing the next day ship a few times just to put a dog in the fight is not my thing. I hope it's priced at 119 or less and it does look like a good set combination. sShould be very popular imo. >>
Two essentially "proof" coins (loosely termed) in their little non-wood boxes would be $60 each.
>>The coins, struck in 99.9 percent silver, will be mounted in a custom blue lacquer presentation case accompanied by a Certificate of Authenticity.
I'm thinking it'll be more like $134.95, which I also use to question 7/8 flip-potential calculations.
<< <i>I question the use of the "won't" in the above and the $75 figure. >>
Of course, always just my opinion, but a reverse proof eagle selling for less than $75........doubt it. Retail regular proofs at $60 at $30 silver, wholesale buyers at $50.
$75 is not a stretch by any means.
Hear that beeping........thats the truck backing up
<< <i>.the first sellers on e-bay will make a bit........after that the sealed unopened FS boxes will bring a slight premium............the rest will be similiar to the 2006 sets >>
It would be great to be similar to the 06 sets in the long run. It's what I'm hoping for. A nice small but eye appealing set at 2x issue after three years+ works for me.
1. The Mint will mint the crap out of these! More sets than the 06 set by ALOT.
2. The first to offer FS 70's will turn a small profit.
3. PCGS/NGC will make the most from this offer
4. The sets will flounder on the market( eBay) for years and turn many off to the series who "loaded up"
5. Minted to order is the Mint code for Load up suckers, we're gonna fleece you till your hearts content.
Now that the mint will have released three RP coins I think those should be considered a separate series from the regular proofs.
IMO - 300-350k max. Some call for a worst case of 500k, even so - downside is very limited.
Remember, im not looking for a big pop here - just a $155-160 set price wholesale after sales close. Grading game will make you more. Volume will make you some bucks with this one. End of story.
<< <i>My prediction ( as plausible as any others offered
1. The Mint will mint the crap out of these! More sets than the 06 set by ALOT.
2. The first to offer FS 70's will turn a small profit.
3. PCGS/NGC will make the most from this offer
4. The sets will flounder on the market( eBay) for years and turn many off to the series who "loaded up"
5. Minted to order is the Mint code for Load up suckers, we're gonna fleece you till your hearts content. >>
Agreed to all points...I don't think they will be money losers but they will not be very profitable..I will still get a few sets but will not be one that is "loading up".....
....as was said earlier, the 2011 RP (and even the S to a lesser extent) is where the money should be going
...I don't think it appropriate to compare price potential of this potentially high mintage set to a 240-270k Buffalo..probably more appropriate for the 2006 Annie set and the Buffalo
...I'm stickin' to 600-800k on these and would not be surprised if it was higher. I would be VERY surprised if it is below 500k
<< <i> 2011 RP (and even the S to a lesser extent) is where the money should be going >>
You have more than a 3% downside risk in these......a crap shoot.
<< <i>
<< <i> 2011 RP (and even the S to a lesser extent) is where the money should be going >>
You have more than a 3% downside risk in these......a crap shoot. >>
Correct but I will stick with bottom feeding 100k mintage coins and deal with the much higher upside potential of those coins....I consider today's prices 6 months after issue to be a great base to rise from.
Box of 20
<< <i>Correct but I will stick with bottom feeding 100k mintage coins and deal with the much higher upside potential of those coins....I consider today's prices 6 months after issue to be a great base to rise from. >>
How many can you acquire? 10, 50, 100? Probably less than 100. What is your upside profit potential expressed in percentage on that $450 coin? 20%? 25%? They have run a long way already.
30% on a 129 set is a 168 dollar set. IMO, very likely just breaking the sets up for its parts after the sales period. How much money can you place? Unlimited.
<< <i> hope these become like the 2008 W Buffalos >>
never happen
one year type coins with a much lower mintage versus coins with other types already with a much higher mintage.
Yes that is the issue at hand in my view. If they strike these reverese proofs with some consistency it will allow those of us who missed the 1995w to work on a proof silver eagle set and not face a $3,000 coin. If they end up with say a total of 5-10 reverse proofs in the next dozen years with mintages in the 200,000- 400,000 range a 99,000 mintage 2011P will be some kind of strong as a lowely pr-69. IMHO.
I've sold my last 2011 Anniversary PCGS 70 set for the money that will allow me to buy at least 10 2-coin SF sets based on the following reasoning;
Sitting on 2011 25th Anniversary set is a time bomb of putting all your eggs in one basket - possible milk spots, plus already realized approx 10X issue price fro 2011 RP
I love RP ASE but I'm happy to keep just 2012 and learn from the lessons and try acetone dip them prior to submitting to make sure they are preserved well.
I'm thinking to buy at least 10 sets, hand-pick 4-5 sets and acetone bath them hoping to yield at least 2-3 PCGS 70 FS sets to keep as the sample of PCGS 70 RP ASE without paying obscene prices for them. If all works as expected I'll end up with 20 oz of Silver at the cost of $1500 that will include 2-3 nice PR 70 sets that are well preserved.
And if they're not so popular - the break even point is silver at $75/oz....
With maybe a maximum of 10 coins ordered in total.
The best bet is prob to do the opposite of what I do, Im usually wrong
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>Wow! You're getting 500k sets yourself? Stud! >>
Will that be one credit card or two? I would use the one that gets you cash back rather than airline miles!
<< <i>I wonder if the mint produced very limited quantities of the 25th anniversary sets just to create demand for the next set, which they'll keep pumping out until they've bled all the suckers dry ... >>
The old pump and dump?
<< <i>What is going to prevent someone from ordering a bunch of sets, waiting to see if they go up in value (my opinion: they won't go up in value), and then when they don't go up in value, returning the sets. >>
A 7 day return policy.
<< <i>
<< <i>What is going to prevent someone from ordering a bunch of sets, waiting to see if they go up in value (my opinion: they won't go up in value), and then when they don't go up in value, returning the sets. >>
A 7 day return policy. >>
<< <i>What is going to prevent someone from ordering a bunch of sets, waiting to see if they go up in value (my opinion: they won't go up in value), and then when they don't go up in value, returning the sets. >>
It will be after they aren't being sold by the Mint before these sets sell for a premium. Have there been other instances where the Mint sold unlimited amounts of a popular coin for only one month? What happened?
Better than any lottery ticket in town.
As to the "undetermined" "mint to demand" upper number, just inquire with the cool enameled wood box manufacturer......you are limited by the "boxes" you ordered.
<< <i>Sorry if this question has been answered already but has the mint published the exact number of these that will be produced? >>
"mint to demand"
if we order 100k, then 100k, if we order 500k then 500k.
the mint says they'll have a sales counter on the page to show number sold.
<< <i>.you are limited by the "boxes" you ordered. >>
if they start with 100k and don't ship for 2 months, then the manu can always make more.
The 1998-S JFK Silver Burnished Half / RFK Silver Dollar set was on sale for only 6 weeks (if I remember correctly) and was minted to demand. Total mintage for the set was around 62,000 making the half the key to the Kennedy set. Initial price was $59.95, current price for the set is in the low $200's.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>If silver prices continue dropping during the ASE 2-coin offering, will sales be stronger or weaker? >>
It most likely depends on the price of the set rather than the price of silver....but again...if there is too big a premium over spot it could negatively affect purchases
That means 2.8 million sets are packaged.
OK they can't be that off.
<< <i>if they start with 100k and don't ship for 2 months, then the manu can always make more. >>
The boxes are probably "warehoused" already.........
Not enough time to get those commies to make more boxes........
Half is probably right ---> 2.8 million more or less.....
Possibly so. I'm really on the fence with this set. If the Mint's odometer works properly, I suspect that initial sales will be slow while people hang back and wait to see what the final sales figures will be. The last couple days of ordering could be really heavy.
It's an interesting twist on the normal sales cycle.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If the Mint's odometer works properly, >>
Now that's funny jmski52!
I knew it would happen.
Box of 20
<< <i>Set will be $109.99 with Silver at 28.56. 90% premium like the Anniversary Sets. Just a guess. >>
Let's hope it's that low.
Maybe many ordering lots and returning non possible 70s?
I'm on the fence too on how many, going to order 2-10 sets
jmho