Well I am still not buying PM's as my gut tell they will go lower. For some like me that's a good thing, but I sure feel sorry for those who bough at the high or near it. I would bet most panicked and sold at the new lows. It takes a set of balls to pay this game. Take care. jws
Since I just received some work to do, I'll go with my short form comment. I don't play with the financial industry any more if I don't have to. I believe them to be corrupt at the core. That being said, I diversify over time, and I hedge my PMs with cash. My position would make most conventional investors nervous. I'll change my tactics when the system gets fixed, or even partly fixed. Otherwise, I'm out.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I'll change my tactics when the system gets fixed, or even partly fixed. Otherwise, I'm out.
That's the problem jmski ... it is fixed ... much more than partially
Like Baley ... I'll keep spreading ...
Stack some bricks and rounds of Ag and Au when the time seems reasonable (FWIW, I'm buying now when the opportunity arises), add to some Stocks and Bonds when the weather seems right (there's a couple positions I've added to in the last six months) ... looking for another peice of RE, maybe soon. Hell, I even consider my collection an asset, as it's worth something more than a few bucks.
I figure I'll have something, somehow, some way.
If not I have tools and food and water and fishing gear and guns and bullets ... crap! ... maybe I DO have a tinfoil hat
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
<< <i>The euro and yen went down. What do any of you make of that?
Im short the YEN. Hoping this little pop above the sharply downward sloping 50dma is just a head fake. Should drop back to the 20dma, and probably a lot lower.
I've pointed out the comparison before, but one should look at a chart of the YEN and the US 10yr Treasury yield.
Just took a look at the futures----YEN getting spanked. >>
<< <i>Well I am still not buying PM's as my gut tell they will go lower. For some like me that's a good thing, but I sure feel sorry for those who bough at the high or near it. I would bet most panicked and sold at the new lows. It takes a set of balls to pay this game. Take care. jws >>
Your "gut feeling" has a better track record than most overpaid PM gurus. Good call so far.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>Well I am still not buying PM's as my gut tell they will go lower. For some like me that's a good thing, but I sure feel sorry for those who bough at the high or near it. I would bet most panicked and sold at the new lows. It takes a set of balls to pay this game. Take care. jws >>
Your "gut feeling" has a better track record than most overpaid PM gurus. Good call so far. >>
My gut tells me that Ag is going to be +$40 in the next couple years. Good time to buy right now if you don't have any.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
dollar strengthening today as eurozone continues implosion. I see a buying opportunity as metals react to dollar.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Think its a one day kinda thing, get right out there and buy?
<< <i>dollar strengthening today as eurozone continues implosion. I see a buying opportunity as metals react to dollar. >>
>>
I see a buying opportunity for me. I don't foresee what others should do, that is a decision for them. Swim at your own risk.
The thinking that results in my decision: Long term - will metals outperform the dollar? If no, avoid metals. If yes, accumulate metals. Short term - will metals outperform the dollar? Not always. Take advantage of the metal pullbacks to accumulate for the long term if you answered yes above.
Its a matter of odds. I see the odds of metal moving up long term as very high. When I see the odds of metal moving up in the short term greater than them moving down, I buy. When I see the odds of metal moving down in the short term greater than them moving up, I build cash so that I am prepared for when I see a change in short term odds.
If you're gonna play, play the odds.
As stated on many occasions, I see outside influence on controlling the long term rise in metals. This involves short term "price adjustments." Recognition of this helps one to avoid panic selling of physical metal while providing profit opportunities with paper metal. Invest long term with physical, speculate short term with paper. Use the paper profits to build the physical stack. This is how one takes maximum advantage of the short term volatility in a long term bull market.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Good time to buy right now if you don't have any. >>
It's always a good time to buy if you think the market has bottomed out. It took silver 20+ years to get from under the previous Bear Market. It's been less than 1 year for the current one.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Comrade DerryB and the Great Kazoo comrade jmski say what I am thinking....what's changed?
If Obama gets 're-elected' than we can expect another 5-7 trillion in debt(?) If Romney 'wins' we'll get almost that much in debt. Will Obamacare be null and void under Romney-vision? Will Congress stop the increase in spending? Can Congress actually cut spending (non-baseline)? Will the Fed stop 'making' money?
So, until the movie changes, buy the dips and keep on stackin'.
what are the chances that market "bubbles" are limited to expansion? The results of the low interest rate, FED fueled market expansions (dot.com, real estate) that have exploded are well known. Is it not also possible that the FED can purposely shrink markets with controls? As with all previous FED controlled markets, eventually the naked king is exposed as true market forces regain control and true price discovery returns. If the FED is in fact purposely contracting the metals market, imagine what will happen when that bubble implodes and true market forces eventually regain price control. The only way the FED can prevent such a parabolic move in metal prices is to forever maintain market control - something they have never been able to do. Will it be different this time? I think not.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Think its a one day kinda thing, get right out there and buy?
<< <i>dollar strengthening today as eurozone continues implosion. I see a buying opportunity as metals react to dollar. >>
>>
I see a buying opportunity for me. I don't foresee what others should do, that is a decision for them. Swim at your own risk.
The thinking that results in my decision: Long term - will metals outperform the dollar? If no, avoid metals. If yes, accumulate metals. Short term - will metals outperform the dollar? Not always. Take advantage of the metal pullbacks to accumulate for the long term if you answered yes above.
Its a matter of odds. I see the odds of metal moving up long term as very high. When I see the odds of metal moving up in the short term greater than them moving down, I buy. When I see the odds of metal moving down in the short term greater than them moving up, I build cash so that I am prepared for when I see a change in short term odds.
If you're gonna play, play the odds.
As stated on many occasions, I see outside influence on controlling the long term rise in metals. This involves short term "price adjustments." Recognition of this helps one to avoid panic selling of physical metal while providing profit opportunities with paper metal. Invest long term with physical, speculate short term with paper. Use the paper profits to build the physical stack. This is how one takes maximum advantage of the short term volatility in a long term bull market. >>
This is some really good advice here. I agree and am acting accordingly. Best.
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i> If the FED is in fact purposely contracting the metals market
What if it isnt a fact?
What if the bond bubble does pop and we get higher rates? What happens to PMs? >>
Guess it boils down to which will happen first. Place your bets, I have.
I'm betting the FED is more interested in controlling interest rates than they are in controlling metal prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i> If the FED is in fact purposely contracting the metals market
What if it isnt a fact?
What if the bond bubble does pop and we get higher rates? What happens to PMs? >>
Guess it boils down to which will happen first. Place your bets, I have.
I'm betting the FED is more interested in controlling interest rates than they are in controlling metal prices. >>
Metals rose exponentially the last time rates marched up in the late seventies eventually crushing the metals. We may have to wait for another Volcker though. I think that was the last time the Dow:Gold was near 1. I'm sure RR knows or has a chart. So I would venture to guess there's still room for metals to go up and/or Dow to come down. How high will interest rates have to go to accomplish the D:G to fall near one? Who knows. Last time it rose to over 20% (mortgage).
<< <i> If the FED is in fact purposely contracting the metals market
What if it isnt a fact?
What if the bond bubble does pop and we get higher rates? What happens to PMs? >>
Guess it boils down to which will happen first. Place your bets, I have.
I'm betting the FED is more interested in controlling interest rates than they are in controlling metal prices. >>
Metals rose exponentially the last time rates marched up in the late seventies eventually crushing the metals. We may have to wait for another Volcker though. I think that was the last time the Dow:Gold was near 1. I'm sure RR knows or has a chart. So I would venture to guess there's still room for metals to go up and/or Dow to come down. How high will interest rates have to go to accomplish the D:G to fall near one? Who knows. Last time it rose to over 20% (mortgage). >>
Cash is not a bad position. If metals fall you have the means to gobble them up at bargain prices. But I would see a very short window to do so. Place your bets.
All these words written and gold is down a whopping $5. Ouch. Slow day in the PM trenches. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I just pulled the trigger on some more physical gold. >>
!Congrads! Physical is good. Start a new stack.
I couldn't find any good handy silver today (local shop, pawn shop, craigs), and that work thing in the way. May have to (shhh, softly.. apmex) for some generic mint varies bars to enhance the .75cent silver drop.
<< <i>I'm all cash now, I pulled the trigger. Gut feelings seldom let me down. Take care. jws >>
This is one of the rare times that I feel 50-50 on direction.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Derry; u hit the nail on the head. It was hard to go all cash. I know a gut feeling and I know most here think I am crazy, but heck I go for what works for me. My gut has been good to me. Go figure. do u think get feelings are stupid. I value your opinion. Take cafe. jws
every move I make is based on my gut. My gut is based on my research.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well derryb, u are probably right. My gut is also based on research, that's why I get them and then act. Just me. Maybe I am crazy, but I do make money, Take care, jws
Speaking of buying, in the last couple of weeks we have all received lots of emails from the big dealers. Just to name a few: - Apmex: 10 oz bar at $0.99 per oz over spot - Gainesville: ASE at $2.35 over spot - Provident: ASE at $2.25 over spot + JM bars at $1.59 over spot Plus other offers on gold.
I am relatively new in the bullion world, so I am asking: what does it mean when the premium shrink? Working in the retail business, I would think that inventories are not moving quickly, hence the discounts.
Other thoughts?
The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
<< <i>Speaking of buying, in the last couple of weeks we have all received lots of emails from the big dealers. Just to name a few: - Apmex: 10 oz bar at $0.99 per oz over spot - Gainesville: ASE at $2.35 over spot - Provident: ASE at $2.25 over spot + JM bars at $1.59 over spot Plus other offers on gold.
I am relatively new in the bullion world, so I am asking: what does it mean when the premium shrink? Working in the retail business, I would think that inventories are not moving quickly, hence the discounts.
Other thoughts? >>
buyers are drying up because they are spent out or because they are expecting prices to fall. Big dealer promotions and email campaigns are a good indication of where THEY think the market is heading. They are not always right.
Also, keep in mind that when one of them reduces, the others have to do so to keep sales going.
Premium reductions are a good indicator of market expectation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
1/4 eagles were going for 435 (at spot basis of 415-420) each which is a considerably lower premium than I am used to. Further, 1/10 were down to 180 (on a spot basis of about 160) which is a considerable discount to the normal premium which is usually double what they are currently selling for.
What I found interesting, Morgans and 90% were priced higher han normal, which makes me think they wanted to move good and not silver.
current inventory dictates most of the premium movement. Inventory is of course dictated by earlier large orders vs. current demand.
While premiums were slow to move upward in the current bull market do not be surprised how quickly they can fall when the bear shows his face. A true mark of the end of the bull run will be negative premiums.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I dont think the FED or any CB gives a rats rear about PMs. >>
They have had a recent change of heart:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
every move I make is based on my gut. My gut is based on my research.
I like to think that I do the same. I also wait until the finances are right, pick a spot for an attempt at "timing", and then just do it.
I honestly don't know what the immediate direction for gold or the other precious metals is.
On the other hand, Europe is a mess, social security is running shorter than expected, and there's an election coming up that is going to require some pump-priming.
Reading on Sinclair's site - about China's decision to pay for Iranian oil with gold in order to circumvent the SWIFT system I see further erosion of the dollar (which is gold-positive), and Egypt's cutting off 40% of Israel's gas supply should be cause for concern if anyone has a brain.
I had less concern over this new stack than most of the previous ones.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I have had some past gut feelings on silver and I have been right on some my gut feeling predictions regarding silver. With that said, I do not have any gut feeling predictions for silver for this year. I do not know what silver will do this year. Since I am just a collector, then it will not matter to me because I am always looking for and buying silver art bars from the LCS and at coin shows. I do not time my purchases to what spot silver will do. If I see something that I like, then I will pull the trigger and make the purchase regardless of what the spot silver price is at that time.
DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a '70's silver art bar expert but I try my best to play one on the Internet.
I've got $5 and $49 silver in my stack, gold spread is wide too (although I only have a few oz). El stacko isn't going anywhere for 20 years+. A slow/low year to me is fine, more for the stack in the long run as I keep my percentage buys the same. My faith in long term cash via the US dollar is slim. Fundamentals of the bank-run world aren't changing until everyone gets a restart with a clean slate, and I hate to say it but I think I will be seeing that in my lifetime sooner than later.
I've got $5 and $49 silver in my stack, gold spread is wide too (although I only have a few oz).
Bingo! That's ideal for what I'm talking about. If you need some cash, you can tailor your sales for a net tax liability of ZERO. (see other thread for discussion) Precious Metals ARE a store of value.
Yeah, some day you might be forced to pay tax on a gain. But the goal is to not do that any sooner than necessary.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I dont think the FED or any CB gives a rats rear about PMs. >>
They have had a recent change of heart:
>>
The CBs that matter--USA, Europe, Japan, Swiss, Canada, Australia are not buying much gold. The "net" increase is probably more reflective of less selling. Of course there are some buyers, but I really, really dont think Gentle Ben has any concern or agenda regarding gold.
<< <i>I've got $5 and $49 silver in my stack, gold spread is wide too (although I only have a few oz).
Bingo! That's ideal for what I'm talking about. If you need some cash, you can tailor your sales for a net tax liability of ZERO. (see other thread for discussion) Precious Metals ARE a store of value.
Yeah, some day you might be forced to pay tax on a gain. But the goal is to not do that any sooner than necessary. >>
Thats right. In December you had no tax liability because you had no profit--ave cost of $27. PMs are just another asset class that fluctuates in value. The store is awesome for those who bought at $10, but a disaster for those who bought at $45.
The CBs that matter--USA, Europe, Japan, Swiss, Canada, Australia are not buying much gold. The "net" increase is probably more reflective of less selling. Of course there are some buyers, but I really, really dont think Gentle Ben has any concern or agenda regarding gold.
The CB's that matter are the ones buying the most gold (ie China, India, etc.). China dwarfs the whole lot of them as they have a long term agenda to be a worthy competitor to the world's reserve currency. And if China's CB isn't doing enough buying 400-700 tonnes per year then the Chinese citizens themselves are helping the team effort as well. The team could be stashing away 1,000 tonnes per year and we wouldn't know it. China already made the mistake of telling the world they upped their reserves to 1054 tonnes from 600. They won't make that mistake again until they have 3,000-5,000 tonnes or more vaulted.
The 1962-1980 gold bull run is not yet drastically different from what we've been seeing since 2001. There are many similarities. And yes, interest rates doubled or tripled in the last 2-3 years of that earlier bull market. Even while that was happening price inflation was also rapidly increasing so that net real rates remained negative. There's little chance of the FED, Treasury, and big banks allowing interest rates to double or triple up from here. They'll continue to pile on the otc interest rate swaps to ensure that doesn't happen, just as they did in 2011 when they increased IR swaps by 18%. The system will have to finally break for rates to start heading significantly higher on their own accord.
Comments
I would say that any asset takes balls to own. If you have a million bucks in the bank, you are still at risk no matter where you put it.
I knew it would happen.
any one sector could go to zero, and the rest of the assets will be decoupled... unless it all goes to zero, and it's SHTF and TEOTWAWKI
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
That's the problem jmski ... it is fixed ... much more than partially
Like Baley ... I'll keep spreading ...
Stack some bricks and rounds of Ag and Au when the time seems reasonable (FWIW, I'm buying now when the opportunity arises), add to some Stocks and Bonds when the weather seems right (there's a couple positions I've added to in the last six months) ... looking for another peice of RE, maybe soon. Hell, I even consider my collection an asset, as it's worth something more than a few bucks.
I figure I'll have something, somehow, some way.
If not I have tools and food and water and fishing gear and guns and bullets ... crap! ... maybe I DO have a tinfoil hat
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
<< <i>The euro and yen went down. What do any of you make of that?
Im short the YEN. Hoping this little pop above the sharply downward sloping 50dma is just a head fake. Should drop back to the 20dma, and probably a lot lower.
I've pointed out the comparison before, but one should look at a chart of the YEN and the US 10yr Treasury yield.
Just took a look at the futures----YEN getting spanked.
Closed YEN short position on Thurs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Well I am still not buying PM's as my gut tell they will go lower. For some like me that's a good thing, but I sure feel sorry for those who bough at the high or near it. I would bet most panicked and sold at the new lows. It takes a set of balls to pay this game. Take care. jws >>
Your "gut feeling" has a better track record than most overpaid PM gurus. Good call so far.
<< <i>
<< <i>Well I am still not buying PM's as my gut tell they will go lower. For some like me that's a good thing, but I sure feel sorry for those who bough at the high or near it. I would bet most panicked and sold at the new lows. It takes a set of balls to pay this game. Take care. jws >>
Your "gut feeling" has a better track record than most overpaid PM gurus. Good call so far.
My gut tells me that Ag is going to be +$40 in the next couple years. Good time to buy right now if you don't have any.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Think its a one day kinda thing, get right out there and buy?
<< <i>dollar strengthening today as eurozone continues implosion. I see a buying opportunity as metals react to dollar. >>
<< <i>Think its a one day kinda thing, get right out there and buy?
<< <i>dollar strengthening today as eurozone continues implosion. I see a buying opportunity as metals react to dollar. >>
>>
I see a buying opportunity for me. I don't foresee what others should do, that is a decision for them. Swim at your own risk.
The thinking that results in my decision:
Long term - will metals outperform the dollar? If no, avoid metals. If yes, accumulate metals.
Short term - will metals outperform the dollar? Not always. Take advantage of the metal pullbacks to accumulate for the long term if you answered yes above.
Its a matter of odds. I see the odds of metal moving up long term as very high. When I see the odds of metal moving up in the short term greater than them moving down, I buy. When I see the odds of metal moving down in the short term greater than them moving up, I build cash so that I am prepared for when I see a change in short term odds.
If you're gonna play, play the odds.
As stated on many occasions, I see outside influence on controlling the long term rise in metals. This involves short term "price adjustments." Recognition of this helps one to avoid panic selling of physical metal while providing profit opportunities with paper metal. Invest long term with physical, speculate short term with paper. Use the paper profits to build the physical stack. This is how one takes maximum advantage of the short term volatility in a long term bull market.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Good time to buy right now if you don't have any. >>
It's always a good time to buy if you think the market has bottomed out. It took silver 20+ years to get from under the previous Bear Market. It's been less than 1 year for the current one.
Comrade DerryB and the Great Kazoo comrade jmski say what I am thinking....what's changed?
If Obama gets 're-elected' than we can expect another 5-7 trillion in debt(?) If Romney 'wins' we'll get almost that much in debt. Will Obamacare be null and void under Romney-vision? Will Congress stop the increase in spending? Can Congress actually cut spending (non-baseline)? Will the Fed stop 'making' money?
So, until the movie changes, buy the dips and keep on stackin'.
2c
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Think its a one day kinda thing, get right out there and buy?
<< <i>dollar strengthening today as eurozone continues implosion. I see a buying opportunity as metals react to dollar. >>
>>
I see a buying opportunity for me. I don't foresee what others should do, that is a decision for them. Swim at your own risk.
The thinking that results in my decision:
Long term - will metals outperform the dollar? If no, avoid metals. If yes, accumulate metals.
Short term - will metals outperform the dollar? Not always. Take advantage of the metal pullbacks to accumulate for the long term if you answered yes above.
Its a matter of odds. I see the odds of metal moving up long term as very high. When I see the odds of metal moving up in the short term greater than them moving down, I buy. When I see the odds of metal moving down in the short term greater than them moving up, I build cash so that I am prepared for when I see a change in short term odds.
If you're gonna play, play the odds.
As stated on many occasions, I see outside influence on controlling the long term rise in metals. This involves short term "price adjustments." Recognition of this helps one to avoid panic selling of physical metal while providing profit opportunities with paper metal. Invest long term with physical, speculate short term with paper. Use the paper profits to build the physical stack. This is how one takes maximum advantage of the short term volatility in a long term bull market. >>
This is some really good advice here.
I agree and am acting accordingly.
Best.
What if it isnt a fact?
What if the bond bubble does pop and we get higher rates? What happens to PMs?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> If the FED is in fact purposely contracting the metals market
What if it isnt a fact?
What if the bond bubble does pop and we get higher rates? What happens to PMs? >>
Guess it boils down to which will happen first. Place your bets, I have.
I'm betting the FED is more interested in controlling interest rates than they are in controlling metal prices.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i> If the FED is in fact purposely contracting the metals market
What if it isnt a fact?
What if the bond bubble does pop and we get higher rates? What happens to PMs? >>
Guess it boils down to which will happen first. Place your bets, I have.
I'm betting the FED is more interested in controlling interest rates than they are in controlling metal prices. >>
Metals rose exponentially the last time rates marched up in the late seventies eventually crushing the metals. We may have to wait for another Volcker though. I think that was the last time the Dow:Gold was near 1. I'm sure RR knows or has a chart. So I would venture to guess there's still room for metals to go up and/or Dow to come down. How high will interest rates have to go to accomplish the D:G to fall near one? Who knows. Last time it rose to over 20% (mortgage).
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i> If the FED is in fact purposely contracting the metals market
What if it isnt a fact?
What if the bond bubble does pop and we get higher rates? What happens to PMs? >>
Guess it boils down to which will happen first. Place your bets, I have.
I'm betting the FED is more interested in controlling interest rates than they are in controlling metal prices. >>
Metals rose exponentially the last time rates marched up in the late seventies eventually crushing the metals. We may have to wait for another Volcker though. I think that was the last time the Dow:Gold was near 1. I'm sure RR knows or has a chart. So I would venture to guess there's still room for metals to go up and/or Dow to come down. How high will interest rates have to go to accomplish the D:G to fall near one? Who knows. Last time it rose to over 20% (mortgage). >>
Dow/Gold Ratio Lowest Since 1987
Box of 20
Now I'll agree 100% with that, cuz I dont think the FED or any CB gives a rats rear about PMs.
The ECB is trying to control rates as well. Hard to tell if they are being successful.
Metals rose exponentially the last time rates marched up in the late seventies eventually crushing the metals
There is very little comparison of todays (global) economy to that of the 70's. Maybe even less than very little.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I just pulled the trigger on some more physical gold. >>
That's horrible, what did it ever do to you?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>I just pulled the trigger on some more physical gold. >>
!Congrads! Physical is good. Start a new stack.
I couldn't find any good handy silver today (local shop, pawn shop, craigs), and that work thing in the way.
May have to (shhh, softly.. apmex) for some generic mint varies bars to enhance the .75cent silver drop.
<< <i>I'm all cash now, I pulled the trigger. Gut feelings seldom let me down. Take care. jws >>
This is one of the rare times that I feel 50-50 on direction.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Just to name a few:
- Apmex: 10 oz bar at $0.99 per oz over spot
- Gainesville: ASE at $2.35 over spot
- Provident: ASE at $2.25 over spot + JM bars at $1.59 over spot
Plus other offers on gold.
I am relatively new in the bullion world, so I am asking: what does it mean when the premium shrink?
Working in the retail business, I would think that inventories are not moving quickly, hence the discounts.
Other thoughts?
<< <i>Speaking of buying, in the last couple of weeks we have all received lots of emails from the big dealers.
Just to name a few:
- Apmex: 10 oz bar at $0.99 per oz over spot
- Gainesville: ASE at $2.35 over spot
- Provident: ASE at $2.25 over spot + JM bars at $1.59 over spot
Plus other offers on gold.
I am relatively new in the bullion world, so I am asking: what does it mean when the premium shrink?
Working in the retail business, I would think that inventories are not moving quickly, hence the discounts.
Other thoughts? >>
buyers are drying up because they are spent out or because they are expecting prices to fall.
Big dealer promotions and email campaigns are a good indication of where THEY think the market is heading. They are not always right.
Also, keep in mind that when one of them reduces, the others have to do so to keep sales going.
Premium reductions are a good indicator of market expectation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Prices at my B&M have dropped considerable.
1/4 eagles were going for 435 (at spot basis of 415-420) each which is a considerably lower premium than I am used to. Further, 1/10 were down to 180 (on a spot basis of about 160) which is a considerable discount to the normal premium which is usually double what they are currently selling for.
What I found interesting, Morgans and 90% were priced higher han normal, which makes me think they wanted to move good and not silver.
My 2 cents
While premiums were slow to move upward in the current bull market do not be surprised how quickly they can fall when the bear shows his face. A true mark of the end of the bull run will be negative premiums.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I dont think the FED or any CB gives a rats rear about PMs. >>
They have had a recent change of heart:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I'm betting the FED is more interested in controlling interest rates than they are in controlling metal prices.
Now I'll agree 100% with that, cuz I dont think the FED or any CB gives a rats rear about PMs.
The ECB is trying to control rates as well. Hard to tell if they are being successful.
Metals rose exponentially the last time rates marched up in the late seventies eventually crushing the metals
There is very little comparison of todays (global) economy to that of the 70's. Maybe even less than very little. >>
You're probably right. No stagflation, just massive inflation smoetime soon.
I like to think that I do the same. I also wait until the finances are right, pick a spot for an attempt at "timing", and then just do it.
I honestly don't know what the immediate direction for gold or the other precious metals is.
On the other hand, Europe is a mess, social security is running shorter than expected, and there's an election coming up that is going to require some pump-priming.
Reading on Sinclair's site - about China's decision to pay for Iranian oil with gold in order to circumvent the SWIFT system I see further erosion of the dollar (which is gold-positive), and Egypt's cutting off 40% of Israel's gas supply should be cause for concern if anyone has a brain.
I had less concern over this new stack than most of the previous ones.
I knew it would happen.
Bingo! That's ideal for what I'm talking about. If you need some cash, you can tailor your sales for a net tax liability of ZERO. (see other thread for discussion) Precious Metals ARE a store of value.
Yeah, some day you might be forced to pay tax on a gain. But the goal is to not do that any sooner than necessary.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>I dont think the FED or any CB gives a rats rear about PMs. >>
They have had a recent change of heart:
The CBs that matter--USA, Europe, Japan, Swiss, Canada, Australia are not buying much gold. The "net" increase is probably more reflective of less selling. Of course there are some buyers, but I really, really dont think Gentle Ben has any concern or agenda regarding gold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I've got $5 and $49 silver in my stack, gold spread is wide too (although I only have a few oz).
Bingo! That's ideal for what I'm talking about. If you need some cash, you can tailor your sales for a net tax liability of ZERO. (see other thread for discussion) Precious Metals ARE a store of value.
Yeah, some day you might be forced to pay tax on a gain. But the goal is to not do that any sooner than necessary. >>
Thats right. In December you had no tax liability because you had no profit--ave cost of $27. PMs are just another asset class that fluctuates in value. The store is awesome for those who bought at $10, but a disaster for those who bought at $45.
Getting very tempted to go "all in" on ZSL.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The CB's that matter are the ones buying the most gold (ie China, India, etc.). China dwarfs the whole lot of them as they have a long term agenda to be a worthy competitor to the
world's reserve currency. And if China's CB isn't doing enough buying 400-700 tonnes per year then the Chinese citizens themselves are helping the team effort as well. The team
could be stashing away 1,000 tonnes per year and we wouldn't know it. China already made the mistake of telling the world they upped their reserves to 1054 tonnes from 600. They
won't make that mistake again until they have 3,000-5,000 tonnes or more vaulted.
The 1962-1980 gold bull run is not yet drastically different from what we've been seeing since 2001. There are many similarities. And yes, interest rates doubled or tripled in the last 2-3 years of that earlier bull market. Even while that was happening price inflation was also rapidly increasing so that net real rates remained negative. There's little chance of the FED,
Treasury, and big banks allowing interest rates to double or triple up from here. They'll continue to pile on the otc interest rate swaps to ensure that doesn't happen, just as they did in
2011 when they increased IR swaps by 18%. The system will have to finally break for rates to start heading significantly higher on their own accord.