I pulled the trigger on the Apmex deal today on the 10oz silver bars. With the one price deal (good for a small purchaser), and the lower dip (I almost missed), it pays for the shipping, adn the few trinkets I added. I only buy from them now on a dip and with a sale. And I'll be doing it again on the next dip, and the next.
Gold is still gold, but its too high for me for stacking, just yet. I know I need it for balance, but its not SHTF yet, so I'm waiting for decent dips since I missed earlier times. May the dollar rise. I can't forget the overall mess: Nat debt is bad and it will get worst; the dollar is not better, maybe temporarily; and we are still in trouble.
I balanced overall, but minus PMs, so I have a PM plan and track laid out for years. So buying on the cusp of going down further is just a balance of my weekly cost averaging, and when a good enough deal appears (as silver in the last 24hrs)...
I can't pretend to guess where silver will go, but its a flat time of year, an election year, and the silver Overhyped Hot Streak frenzy is flattening, and thats what I'm waiting for. Silver still has that extra-potential, even when prices drop. If you believed its potential on the way up, it still exists on a dip cycle.
I'm not in my selling years, but my buying years, I want pms to go down. I am in the initial stages of building my pm portfolio and knowledge base. I need gold to go down, and so it will. Buy opps are continuing, and I recommend to consider this and spread it out on the down and buy. It's the buyers cycle, so buyers should be thirsty, or think about another game.
my "gut" sees a better long term gain with silver vs. gold.
per ZH, Russian and Mexican central banks both bought nearly $1B in gold in March.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The CB's that matter are the ones buying the most gold (ie China, India, etc.).
I'll disagree with this. If China owned every ounce of gold in the world, would that make them more powerful than the USA? Nope. Cant build a tank out of gold. Cant build a plane out of gold. Cant fuel a truck with gold. Of course you cant eat gold. .
Now you will say they can trade the gold for the above goods, but obviously if China owned it all, it was because no one else wanted it in the first place. So if one entity owns all the gold, it effectively becomes worthless. Or at the very least---worth less. For example, if today a boatload of corn costs 1000 ounces of gold and if China wanted to trade gold for it, the cost might suddenly increase to 5000 oz of gold. Gold can, has and will be devalued just like any asset can, has and will. If something is perceived as having value but is unattainable, it begins to lose its allure. Why lust after something you cannot have? Its value effectively is reduced.
Of course this is all hypothetical as China or India will never own all the gold, but illustrates the point that he who owns the most gold is not not necessarily the richest or most powerful. I say let them spend all their fiat on gold, then we can trade them natty and corn and beef for gold at steep discounts.
Russian and Mexican central banks both bought nearly $1B in gold in March
Whoopty dooo!! There are mutual and hedge funds and individuals that could buy more than that if they wanted. Heck, AAPL generates $3 billion in profit every month. Mexico and Russia should be spending their money on something useful like infrastructure to bring them into the 21st Century.
<< <i>current inventory dictates most of the premium movement. Inventory is of course dictated by earlier large orders vs. current demand.
While premiums were slow to move upward in the current bull market do not be surprised how quickly they can fall when the bear shows his face. A true mark of the end of the bull run will be negative premiums. >>
So, is No Premium the next step toward Negative Premium?
"buy this silver UNDER SPOT! only until [two days later]!" and they'll call it "inventory reduction sale" or something, and it will be the junkiest silver.
demand will dictate premiums (or lack of, even negative) in a bear market just as it does in a bull market.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Have you ever seen a negitive premium on major products like ASE, Maples, etc?! >>
you will if there is a mad rush to move out of metals. If prices were to drop like a rock and continue to drop smart sellers would sell for less than spot just to liquidate. Not sayin it's around the corner but it will happen when there is eventually a mad rush out of metals.
Even in this bull market I have bought for less than spot. Less than spot is the same as a negative premium.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Have you ever seen a negitive premium on major products like ASE, Maples, etc?! >>
you will if there is a mad rush to move out of metals. If prices were to drop like a rock and continue to drop smart sellers would sell for less than spot just to liquidate. Not sayin it's around the corner but it will happen when there is eventually a mad rush out of metals. >>
Derryb, it was just an honest question. I was wondering if it has ever happened in the past.
The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
<< <i>Have you ever seen a negitive premium on major products like ASE, Maples, etc?! >>
you will if there is a mad rush to move out of metals. If prices were to drop like a rock and continue to drop smart sellers would sell for less than spot just to liquidate. Not sayin it's around the corner but it will happen when there is eventually a mad rush out of metals. >>
Derryb, it was just an honest question. I was wondering if it has ever happened in the past. >>
I have not experienced the begining of a metals bear market so I have never seen it. But, like any market, price will be determined by demand. If nobody's buying and everyone is selling I would expect metals to be advertised for less than spot. Kinda like when the 25th ASE sets flooded the market. They didn't go for less than spot but their prices sure came way down when everyone started underpricing the other guys just to collect some profit and get out.
Keep in mind that spot price will adjust downward in a bear market. I'm proposing that it will be slow to reflect third party price reductions in a rapidly declining market.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
My Gut tells me that today would be a good time to buy Silver and this month may be the best time to buy for some time to come. Just saying what my gut is telling me, but it tells me at times its desire for nutrition, however while my mind and the time of day tells me otherwise.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
So I was pricing out a large silver purchase yesterday. Filled up a cart on A-mex and a few other sites to get a shipping quote. I just leave it in the cart after I am done rather than emptying it. This is something I commonly do.
I get a call/phone message from an A-mex rep saying he noticed I had an order in my cart that I hadn't completed. Said if there was anything he could help with to give him a call back. This is a first.
It really seems like the big bullion guys are pushing to get their inventory moved. I'd imagine at the wholesale level they really need to keep the cash flowing to make sure their standing order for new stock can be paid for. They sure seem to be reaching out more lately to get their sales volume up.
When silver spiked in Jan 1980 or thereabouts, it had fought it's way up from the teens all the way to $38 or more, maybe even to $45 or so. I didn't even know that it had touched $49+ because there probably weren't that many trades at that number before it came right back down. It may not have even been a real number. There wasn't panic selling when the spike subsided. Same thing for gold - it was up to $875 so briefly that nobody really counted it as a high water mark. Most people expected another run for both metals at that point.
In the end, the government did cause the market to decline. When the CFTC suddenly prohibited any more "buy" trades, increased margin requirements, and when Paul Volker simultaneously turned up the heat on the Fed Funds interest rate - it finally killed the PM rally permanently. But, nobody really seemed to know it at the time. The silver market kinda acted like a wounded bull, and it fell immediately to around $30. At that point, it bounced around in that range for several months and there was ample time to get out - probably because some market players still expected a rebound. It took awhile for the market to die.
Our current price range still isn't even close to 1980, after inflation. There is lots of room for the price to run. I must also observe that the market seems to be more broadly based now, mainly due to the internet. The government also benefits from this market, as they are a major retailer in silver now. There is no overhanging supply from a national strategic reserve in silver. Silver consumption has risen past production.
This has been a steadily rising trading market that has been reacting to economic news (and some speculation about physical supplies), rather than to news of the Hunt Brothers taking delivery of large chunks and buying even more on margin in an attempt to corner the market. We've also had some healthy corrections, with subsequent recovery & consolidation before more moves to the upside.
In today's market, we would have to see something fairly dramatic in terms of throwing a cold bucket of water on the market to have a permanent effect. If the government slaps a use tax of 15% on silver trades, or increases margins significantly - I still don't think that would kill this market. It would take something more than that. That doesn't mean something really draconian can't happen. We shall see.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I'm a small purchaser, and always have something in the Apmex cart, and noticed that starting from Apmex via emails about a month ago. I used that email to write back about that tricky shipping gift survey. Now they don't contact me anymore. I still do it. Guess I didn't rate a call.. lol
<< <i>So I was pricing out a large silver purchase yesterday. Filled up a cart on A-mex and a few other sites to get a shipping quote. I just leave it in the cart after I am done rather than emptying it. This is something I commonly do.
Any thoughts on the Free Fed Money to the Banks is somehow causing a bubble in PMs. Gold has doubled since 09 when the Fed provided all that Free Money to the Banks. The Stock Market has also doubled from its lows in the 6ks in 09 also. Is there no concern that Gold, more than Silver is in a bubble? Inflation and dollar erosion has some effect, but i don't think nearly as much as all the Free Money or as Ron Paul says counterfeit money. We are all aware that the Fed loves to cause Bubbles whether in Real Estate, The Stock Market or PMs. Perhaps this is what the Fed wants. PMs at these high levels and than pull the rug from under the market keeping gold down for years causing it not to be a viable investment. Does the Fed have the power to cripple PMs? Granted their only true weapon is the printing press.
<< <i>My Gut tells me that today would be a good time to buy Silver and this month may be the best time to buy for some time to come. Just saying what my gut is telling me, but it tells me at times its desire for nutrition, however while my mind and the time of day tells me otherwise. >>
You mistook your "gut feelings"...they were hunger pains. We still have a long way to go, by historical standards, for this silver bear market to turn around.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>....We are all aware that the Fed loves to cause Bubbles whether in Real Estate, The Stock Market or PMs. Perhaps this is what the Fed wants. PMs at these high levels and than pull the rug from under the market keeping gold down for years causing it not to be a viable investment. Does the Fed have the power to cripple PMs? Granted their only true weapon is the printing press. >>
The FED has currency swap lines, and can buy/sell untold numbers of securities for its own account. They also have the FED funds rate and the interest rate curve. Another tool is the amount of reserves that FED banks are required to keep on hand. Their FED foreign custodial account ($3 TRILL) is another source of slush funding. All of these can impact PM prices up or down. But probably more of a weapon is just getting the word out to the Treasury or big banks that they would like them to intercede in markets. The biggest intercessions have of course been otc interest rate contracts. This has been their primary weapon to control the longer end of the interest rate curve...and at the same time given the big banks the go ahead to pillage the financial system. The FED could also "suggest" to the big banks to stock up on otc gold and silver derivatives. In large enough size these are like nuclear bombs going off in the PM markets. This was done in 2008 and helped to tank PM's in late summer. It's not likely that banks like JPM and Goldman Sachs operate w/o discussing tactics with the FED. Some have suggested that for all intents, JPM is now part of the FED....or is the FED. The printing press is sort of outdated when you can key stroke any amount of debt-money or credit into existence.
Table 2. Domestic SOMA securities holdings Billions of dollars, as of October 26, 2011
Security type...........................................................Total par value U.S. Treasury bills................................................................$18 U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, nominal ........................$1,582 U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, inflation-indexed...............$77 Federal agency debt securities..........................................$108 MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities).....................................$849 Total SOMA securities holdings.........................................$2,635
Good, I was hoping someone could put some of them to use. The author also feels that there are 19 BILL ounces of silver still above ground...not the 1 BILL or less that many seem to quote. The real answer is probably somewhere in between those two. What hasn't gone up for 60 yrs? 1950-d nickels and 1924-d pennies. Nat gas probably overall flat now for >30 yrs. Average real wages per worker peaked almost 40 yrs ago.
The FED holds $3.489 TRILLION in marketable securities in custody for foreign official and international accounts (mostly Treasury and Federal Agency securities). How does all this factor into the FED's liability mix? This is stuff the FED owes assuming they have it, right? This account has grown by about $1.5 TRILL in just a few yrs.
Show me something that HASNT been in a 60+ yr uptrend. >>
The buying power of fiat dollars. >>
It is possible that if not for the diminished buying power asset prices may not have gone up at all, and many commodities may be lower due to increased productivity especially agricultural commods.
What hasn't gone up for 60 yrs? 1950-d nickels and 1924-d pennies
Gold is back to exactly the same point as when this post was made. Could have made a little money on the dip or if you didn't do anything you didn't miss much at all. So far. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>How long is this gut feeling supposed to last? >>
next bowel movement
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
-Good forum - Thank you. -Silver generally tracks gold but can be different at times -Long term, buy on dips. Greedy waiting means you lose when it goes up. Cost averaging plan. If it gets lower, buy more, within plan. -Most expensive -to cheapest buying for my small amounts: Mint, PM dealers, Apmex Deals, local coin shop, local pawn shop... -No matter how much I learn, it gets more complex, and opinons as well. Expect that will continue as steady state. -Some make predictions on the chart itself, not the product. Its exciting. It never does that. -A Safe that you can afford in relation to your PM assest amount is useless. Don't keep your stuff in one place. -How I diversify in PMs depends on the deals I get. (at the current time) -Don't sell when I need to, but when its high. Don't wait for advice at the last minute. Always have a long term plan. -Don't invest in Europe right now. -The goverment cannot fix itself, or the nat debt. They 'manage it along' over short periods. Be prepared. -Don't die with it. -I hope my wife doesn't find out!
<< <i>Has anyone opinion change since I started this thread a short time ago. Take care. jws >>
well an investor in physical silver wouldnt or a double minded one shouldnt sell at this time... no reason to ... fear moves the weak to release their position...
an investor would add to the position with another 20%+ move down...
I am interested in your idea of the bottom and your gut feelings today. Still the same?
<< <i>This is for investors not collectors. My gut tells me now is a bad time. You just have to take that on my gut feeling. Anyway good luck. Live long and prosper. Take care. jws >>
Wanted to TTT this thread as it is a great learn on investor psychology. I urge you to read it from the beginning and compare to PM price action during this time.
I wish Gainesville or APMEX would get stock of 2012 Libertads and sell for reasonable prices (i.e. not the huge premiums that eBay is seeing)...I'd be a buyer. Need a couple rolls for the stash and four or five for albums.
<< <i> You mistook your "gut feelings"...they were hunger pains. We still have a long way to go, by historical standards, for this silver bear market to turn around. >>
Did he say "Silver Bear Market" That is worthy of the "cat of nine" or at least "Two Years Before the Mast"
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
Lots of scared money right now, not just in precious metals. Something has changed politically in Europe, but it's part of a larger trend and it only cements the financial trend in Europe. Much of the concern is how the Eurozone will fare now that the reformers have lost leverage and several fractious splinter parties have gained favor.
The dollar is up smartly. Interesting that both Gates & Buffett were trotted out (among others) to speak against gold (and for stocks). They probably expected stocks to take a hit. At this point, it's all just scared money. It could be a replay of 2008, except that we haven't had a Lehman meltdown resulting in a "financial crisis" yet.
I guess the proper way to look at today is to ask, "what affects the big bankers here?" Where did I read, just yesterday that Spain is tightening their controls on cash transactions because of all the tax fraud. I suppose that has something to do with the outrageious tax rates in Spain. Makes ya go "Hmmmmmm".
I want to see where the scared money goes for the next 9 days after this one. The election cycle on this side of the pond only puts more pressure on the whole system. Just musing, here.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
gold, silver, stocks, oil all on sale. Embrace it if you are a buyer. MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The ability to buy at different price points allows you some flexibility in managing your tax liability when you do sell (as long as you keep good records).
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The ability to buy at different price points allows you some flexibility in managing your tax liability when you do sell (as long as you keep good records). >>
You are too caught up with taxes. Just make or increase your $$$$ as much as possible. I've seen too many people make poor decisions because, "I dont wanna pay taxes".
MJ may be right. Equities had a great run since last Fall. Now they need a break. And breaks are almost always accompanied by "scary news". If it werent for this news prices may never come down. Bad or scary news is GOOD.
Im seeing several stocks acting very well in this tape.
You are too caught up with taxes. Just make or increase your $$$$ as much as possible. I've seen too many people make poor decisions because, "I dont wanna pay taxes".
Not to be contrary, but I feel that tax issues are at least as important as making the money in the first place. A dollar saved is a dollar earned, no? I still spend my money-making time at my job, and don't depend on stock valuations or investments for income at this time. That may come later for me.
My prime concern has been and will continue to be sovereign debt issues, debt monetization and the potential for a banking system failure in the US. I really, really, really don't like where we are headed.
I simply don't see many alternatives to precious metals where I can have full control with less risk. If I were a mutual fund, my prospectus would prohibit owning more than 10% in paper assets. A mining stock or a precious metal ETF might qualify as a 50/50 hybrid, but my take is that extreme caution is called for until we have a resolution of the debt, the off-budget spending, the bad derivative paper, banking reform, entitlements and unfunded liabilities.
I don't see that happening in the remainder of my lifetime. I'm paying attention, and if things change I'll be in there investing for the future with the best of them. I remember the early 1980's very well. That was a good time to invest in stocks, but it was also a very hard thing to justify at the time. At any rate, we aren't there yet, by any means.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Its a good cautionary statment and much appreciated, but I did. That's twice this week and I'm still looking for more base bullion. Some at spot, some at $30, and today at $31. Cheapest I've ever gotten it.
Comments
Gold is still gold, but its too high for me for stacking, just yet. I know I need it for balance, but its not SHTF yet, so I'm waiting for decent dips since I missed earlier times. May the dollar rise. I can't forget the overall mess:
Nat debt is bad and it will get worst; the dollar is not better, maybe temporarily; and we are still in trouble.
I balanced overall, but minus PMs, so I have a PM plan and track laid out for years. So buying on the cusp of going down further is just a balance of my weekly cost averaging, and when a good enough deal appears (as silver in the last 24hrs)...
I can't pretend to guess where silver will go, but its a flat time of year, an election year, and the silver Overhyped Hot Streak frenzy is flattening, and thats what I'm waiting for. Silver still has that extra-potential, even when prices drop. If you believed its potential on the way up, it still exists on a dip cycle.
I'm not in my selling years, but my buying years, I want pms to go down. I am in the initial stages of building my pm portfolio and knowledge base. I need gold to go down, and so it will. Buy opps are continuing, and I recommend to consider this and spread it out on the down and buy. It's the buyers cycle, so buyers should be thirsty, or think about another game.
per ZH, Russian and Mexican central banks both bought nearly $1B in gold in March.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That could very well be the case. We live in interesting times.
I knew it would happen.
I'll disagree with this. If China owned every ounce of gold in the world, would that make them more powerful than the USA? Nope. Cant build a tank out of gold. Cant build a plane out of gold. Cant fuel a truck with gold. Of course you cant eat gold.
Now you will say they can trade the gold for the above goods, but obviously if China owned it all, it was because no one else wanted it in the first place. So if one entity owns all the gold, it effectively becomes worthless. Or at the very least---worth less. For example, if today a boatload of corn costs 1000 ounces of gold and if China wanted to trade gold for it, the cost might suddenly increase to 5000 oz of gold. Gold can, has and will be devalued just like any asset can, has and will. If something is perceived as having value but is unattainable, it begins to lose its allure. Why lust after something you cannot have? Its value effectively is reduced.
Of course this is all hypothetical as China or India will never own all the gold, but illustrates the point that he who owns the most gold is not not necessarily the richest or most powerful. I say let them spend all their fiat on gold, then we can trade them natty and corn and beef for gold at steep discounts.
Russian and Mexican central banks both bought nearly $1B in gold in March
Whoopty dooo!! There are mutual and hedge funds and individuals that could buy more than that if they wanted. Heck, AAPL generates $3 billion in profit every month. Mexico and Russia should be spending their money on something useful like infrastructure to bring them into the 21st Century.
Getting very tempted to go "all in" on ZSL
I'd be up 2% already.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
*nevermind my worries *
it is only for three coins!
<< <i>Just got the email: "[AP-EX] Silver Eagles at Spot - Zero Premium – Limited Quantity But Only Until Thursday"
*nevermind my worries *
it is only for three coins! >>
Buy buy buy, while spot is still high. At least thats what im hearing.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>current inventory dictates most of the premium movement. Inventory is of course dictated by earlier large orders vs. current demand.
While premiums were slow to move upward in the current bull market do not be surprised how quickly they can fall when the bear shows his face. A true mark of the end of the bull run will be negative premiums. >>
So, is No Premium the next step toward Negative Premium?
"buy this silver UNDER SPOT! only until [two days later]!" and they'll call it "inventory reduction sale" or something, and it will be the junkiest silver.
let's see...
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Have you ever seen a negitive premium on major products like ASE, Maples, etc?! >>
you will if there is a mad rush to move out of metals. If prices were to drop like a rock and continue to drop smart sellers would sell for less than spot just to liquidate. Not sayin it's around the corner but it will happen when there is eventually a mad rush out of metals.
Even in this bull market I have bought for less than spot. Less than spot is the same as a negative premium.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>Have you ever seen a negitive premium on major products like ASE, Maples, etc?! >>
you will if there is a mad rush to move out of metals. If prices were to drop like a rock and continue to drop smart sellers would sell for less than spot just to liquidate. Not sayin it's around the corner but it will happen when there is eventually a mad rush out of metals. >>
Derryb, it was just an honest question. I was wondering if it has ever happened in the past.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Have you ever seen a negitive premium on major products like ASE, Maples, etc?! >>
you will if there is a mad rush to move out of metals. If prices were to drop like a rock and continue to drop smart sellers would sell for less than spot just to liquidate. Not sayin it's around the corner but it will happen when there is eventually a mad rush out of metals. >>
Derryb, it was just an honest question. I was wondering if it has ever happened in the past. >>
I have not experienced the begining of a metals bear market so I have never seen it. But, like any market, price will be determined by demand. If nobody's buying and everyone is selling I would expect metals to be advertised for less than spot. Kinda like when the 25th ASE sets flooded the market. They didn't go for less than spot but their prices sure came way down when everyone started underpricing the other guys just to collect some profit and get out.
Keep in mind that spot price will adjust downward in a bear market. I'm proposing that it will be slow to reflect third party price reductions in a rapidly declining market.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I get a call/phone message from an A-mex rep saying he noticed I had an order in my cart that I hadn't completed. Said if there was anything he could help with to give him a call back. This is a first.
It really seems like the big bullion guys are pushing to get their inventory moved. I'd imagine at the wholesale level they really need to keep the cash flowing to make sure their standing order for new stock can be paid for. They sure seem to be reaching out more lately to get their sales volume up.
When silver spiked in Jan 1980 or thereabouts, it had fought it's way up from the teens all the way to $38 or more, maybe even to $45 or so. I didn't even know that it had touched $49+ because there probably weren't that many trades at that number before it came right back down. It may not have even been a real number. There wasn't panic selling when the spike subsided. Same thing for gold - it was up to $875 so briefly that nobody really counted it as a high water mark. Most people expected another run for both metals at that point.
In the end, the government did cause the market to decline. When the CFTC suddenly prohibited any more "buy" trades, increased margin requirements, and when Paul Volker simultaneously turned up the heat on the Fed Funds interest rate - it finally killed the PM rally permanently. But, nobody really seemed to know it at the time. The silver market kinda acted like a wounded bull, and it fell immediately to around $30. At that point, it bounced around in that range for several months and there was ample time to get out - probably because some market players still expected a rebound. It took awhile for the market to die.
Our current price range still isn't even close to 1980, after inflation. There is lots of room for the price to run. I must also observe that the market seems to be more broadly based now, mainly due to the internet. The government also benefits from this market, as they are a major retailer in silver now. There is no overhanging supply from a national strategic reserve in silver. Silver consumption has risen past production.
This has been a steadily rising trading market that has been reacting to economic news (and some speculation about physical supplies), rather than to news of the Hunt Brothers taking delivery of large chunks and buying even more on margin in an attempt to corner the market. We've also had some healthy corrections, with subsequent recovery & consolidation before more moves to the upside.
In today's market, we would have to see something fairly dramatic in terms of throwing a cold bucket of water on the market to have a permanent effect. If the government slaps a use tax of 15% on silver trades, or increases margins significantly - I still don't think that would kill this market. It would take something more than that. That doesn't mean something really draconian can't happen. We shall see.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>So I was pricing out a large silver purchase yesterday. Filled up a cart on A-mex and a few other sites to get a shipping quote. I just leave it in the cart after I am done rather than emptying it. This is something I commonly do.
I get a call/phone .... >>
Box of 20
<< <i>My Gut tells me that today would be a good time to buy Silver and this month may be the best time to buy for some time to come. Just saying what my gut is telling me, but it tells me at times its desire for nutrition, however while my mind and the time of day tells me otherwise. >>
You mistook your "gut feelings"...they were hunger pains.
<< <i>....We are all aware that the Fed loves to cause Bubbles whether in Real Estate, The Stock Market or PMs. Perhaps this is what the Fed wants. PMs at these high levels and than pull the rug from under the market keeping gold down for years causing it not to be a viable investment. Does the Fed have the power to cripple PMs? Granted their only true weapon is the printing press. >>
The FED has currency swap lines, and can buy/sell untold numbers of securities for its own account. They also have the FED funds rate and the interest rate curve. Another tool is the amount of reserves that FED banks are required to keep on hand. Their FED foreign custodial account ($3 TRILL) is another source of slush funding. All of these can impact PM prices up or down. But probably more of a weapon is just getting the word out to the Treasury or big banks that they would like them to intercede in markets. The biggest intercessions have of course been otc interest rate contracts. This has been their primary weapon to control the longer end of the interest rate curve...and at the same time given the big banks the go ahead to pillage the financial system. The FED could also "suggest" to the big banks to stock up on otc gold and silver derivatives. In large enough size these are like nuclear bombs going off in the PM markets. This was done in 2008 and helped to tank PM's in late summer. It's not likely that banks like JPM and Goldman Sachs operate w/o discussing tactics with the FED. Some have suggested that for all intents, JPM is now part of the FED....or is the FED. The printing press is sort of outdated when you can key stroke any amount of debt-money or credit into existence.
Silver - some interesting history and charts that you don't see every day
One chart I found interesting was that silver has been in a >60 yr uptrend.
Billions of dollars, as of October 26, 2011
Security type...........................................................Total par value
U.S. Treasury bills................................................................$18
U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, nominal ........................$1,582
U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, inflation-indexed...............$77
Federal agency debt securities..........................................$108
MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities).....................................$849
Total SOMA securities holdings.........................................$2,635
SOMA
Show me something that HASNT been in a 60+ yr uptrend.
Neat charts though. Has given me some ideas.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Good, I was hoping someone could put some of them to use. The author also feels that there are 19 BILL ounces of silver still above ground...not the 1 BILL or less that
many seem to quote. The real answer is probably somewhere in between those two. What hasn't gone up for 60 yrs? 1950-d nickels and 1924-d pennies.
Nat gas probably overall flat now for >30 yrs. Average real wages per worker peaked almost 40 yrs ago.
The FED holds $3.489 TRILLION in marketable securities in custody for foreign official and international accounts (mostly Treasury and Federal Agency securities).
How does all this factor into the FED's liability mix? This is stuff the FED owes assuming they have it, right? This account has grown by about $1.5 TRILL in just a few yrs.
<< <i> silver has been in a >60 yr uptrend.
Show me something that HASNT been in a 60+ yr uptrend. >>
The buying power of fiat dollars.
<< <i>
<< <i> silver has been in a >60 yr uptrend.
Show me something that HASNT been in a 60+ yr uptrend. >>
The buying power of fiat dollars. >>
It is possible that if not for the diminished buying power asset prices may not have gone up at all, and many commodities may be lower due to increased productivity especially agricultural commods.
What hasn't gone up for 60 yrs? 1950-d nickels and 1924-d pennies
Probably right about that. LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>How long is this gut feeling supposed to last? >>
next bowel movement
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>How long is this gut feeling supposed to last? >>
next bowel movement >>
-Good forum - Thank you.
-Silver generally tracks gold but can be different at times
-Long term, buy on dips. Greedy waiting means you lose when it goes up. Cost averaging plan. If it gets lower, buy more, within plan.
-Most expensive -to cheapest buying for my small amounts: Mint, PM dealers, Apmex Deals, local coin shop, local pawn shop...
-No matter how much I learn, it gets more complex, and opinons as well. Expect that will continue as steady state.
-Some make predictions on the chart itself, not the product. Its exciting. It never does that.
-A Safe that you can afford in relation to your PM assest amount is useless. Don't keep your stuff in one place.
-How I diversify in PMs depends on the deals I get. (at the current time)
-Don't sell when I need to, but when its high. Don't wait for advice at the last minute. Always have a long term plan.
-Don't invest in Europe right now.
-The goverment cannot fix itself, or the nat debt. They 'manage it along' over short periods. Be prepared.
-Don't die with it.
-I hope my wife doesn't find out!
<< <i>Has anyone opinion change since I started this thread a short time ago. Take care. jws >>
well an investor in physical silver wouldnt or a double minded one shouldnt sell at this time...
no reason to ... fear moves the weak to release their position...
an investor would add to the position with another 20%+ move down...
collectors dont make $$$, they spend it...
<< <i>This is for investors not collectors.
My gut tells me now is a bad time. You just have to take that on my gut feeling. Anyway good luck. Live long and prosper. Take care. jws >>
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
According to this chart, gold has been a good hedge against inflation only in 1970-1980, 1985-1988 and 2001-2011.
<< <i>
You mistook your "gut feelings"...they were hunger pains.
Did he say "Silver Bear Market" That is worthy of the "cat of nine" or at least "Two Years Before the Mast"
The dollar is up smartly. Interesting that both Gates & Buffett were trotted out (among others) to speak against gold (and for stocks). They probably expected stocks to take a hit. At this point, it's all just scared money. It could be a replay of 2008, except that we haven't had a Lehman meltdown resulting in a "financial crisis" yet.
I guess the proper way to look at today is to ask, "what affects the big bankers here?" Where did I read, just yesterday that Spain is tightening their controls on cash transactions because of all the tax fraud. I suppose that has something to do with the outrageious tax rates in Spain. Makes ya go "Hmmmmmm".
I want to see where the scared money goes for the next 9 days after this one. The election cycle on this side of the pond only puts more pressure on the whole system. Just musing, here.
I knew it would happen.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The ability to buy at different price points allows you some flexibility in managing your tax liability when you do sell (as long as you keep good records).
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Embrace it if you are a buyer. MJ
The ability to buy at different price points allows you some flexibility in managing your tax liability when you do sell (as long as you keep good records). >>
You are too caught up with taxes. Just make or increase your $$$$ as much as possible. I've seen too many people make poor decisions because, "I dont wanna pay taxes".
MJ may be right. Equities had a great run since last Fall. Now they need a break. And breaks are almost always accompanied by "scary news". If it werent for this news prices may never come down. Bad or scary news is GOOD.
Im seeing several stocks acting very well in this tape.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not to be contrary, but I feel that tax issues are at least as important as making the money in the first place. A dollar saved is a dollar earned, no? I still spend my money-making time at my job, and don't depend on stock valuations or investments for income at this time. That may come later for me.
My prime concern has been and will continue to be sovereign debt issues, debt monetization and the potential for a banking system failure in the US. I really, really, really don't like where we are headed.
I simply don't see many alternatives to precious metals where I can have full control with less risk. If I were a mutual fund, my prospectus would prohibit owning more than 10% in paper assets. A mining stock or a precious metal ETF might qualify as a 50/50 hybrid, but my take is that extreme caution is called for until we have a resolution of the debt, the off-budget spending, the bad derivative paper, banking reform, entitlements and unfunded liabilities.
I don't see that happening in the remainder of my lifetime. I'm paying attention, and if things change I'll be in there investing for the future with the best of them. I remember the early 1980's very well. That was a good time to invest in stocks, but it was also a very hard thing to justify at the time. At any rate, we aren't there yet, by any means.
I knew it would happen.
Its a good cautionary statment and much appreciated, but I did.
That's twice this week and I'm still looking for more base bullion.
Some at spot, some at $30, and today at $31. Cheapest I've ever gotten it.
Ill be continuing to purchase a little bit of silver every other week, investing in the long term.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
And that is exactly what concerns me. Almost everyone alive on the planet today only knows inflation. Its scary what we dont know.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear