POLL: Will Gold Hit $5,000 per ounce in 2012?
BigRick
Posts: 1,334
BigRick
Posts: 1,334
BigRick
Posts: 1,334
Comments
<< <i>No offense, but you must be completely nuts to even post a question like this. >>
I don't think his question is crazy at all. He's basically asking will the price triple in a year. It may seem unlikely, but look at what gold did during the last year of its bull market run in 1979-80 when it went parabolic.
<< <i>
<< <i>No offense, but you must be completely nuts to even post a question like this. >>
I don't think his question is crazy at all. He's basically asking will the price triple in a year. It may seem unlikely, but look at what gold did during the last year of its bull market run in 1979-80 when it went parabolic. >>
Of course, the big difference is that gold did not post 12 consecutive years worth of gains prior to exploding in '79. "Legs" get tired after marathon runs.
<< <i> Of course, the big difference is that gold did not post 12 consecutive years worth of gains prior to exploding in '79. "Legs" get tired after marathon runs. >>
No. The price of gold was fixed by the government until around 1971. However, other indicators prove there was price pressure building under gold from the early 1960s. That is why the London Gold Pool was created by governments in the early 1960s specifically to prevent the international price of gold from exceeding $35. The reality is that the 1979 blow off top followed 18 years of increasing value of gold -- even though the posted prices didn't start increasing until 1971 when gold was allowed to float.
In any case, the duration of the bull market is the not decisive factor. US Treasuries have been in a 30 year bull market that's still ongoing.
I knew it would happen.
I'M NOT THE ONE THAT'S "NUTS" - LOL
& thanks for adding confirmation to MY hypothesis (and no offense taken).
and blew off again the first half of 2012. To get to levels higher than that would likely require much more consolidation and pointing more than a year down the road.
There would be a lot of profit taking if it approached that number.
This would again let the air out of the balloon and drop prices to lower support levels again.
JMHO.
Those calls sold to a book I'm sure because someone got a deal on the 3000 end (or something like that)
2500 ... maybe ... 3500 ... unlikely ... 4500 ... between slim and none, and I think slim is taking the year off
my opinion of course
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Ok then, I bought 5 powerball tickets this morning. Should I post a poll and ask whether or not i'll be worth $100 million by the end of this year?
Very similar concept.
Its 37-3 for the record so far. And for the 3 who voted yes to $5,000 gold this year, the obvious question is how many hundreds of oz are you buying right now?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
It would take a run on the bank type situation in physical gold at the COMEX . If a large group demanded delivery and left 99% of the paper owners swinging in the breeze in a way that couldn't be easily dismissed or swept under a rug.
Something that stays on the evening news a lot better than MF global did. Its hard to see how the price could be suppressed the way it is if buyers exit the paper market because they lost faith in it. There have to be paper buyers if you want to sell paper.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I expect gold to sell in the 2000 to 2500 range.Most likely just before I decide to buy some buffs
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
that gold will reach $5,000 in 2012 !!!
<< <i>It would take a run on the bank type situation in physical gold at the COMEX . If a large group demanded delivery and left 99% of the paper owners swinging in the breeze in a way that couldn't be easily dismissed or swept under a rug.
Something that stays on the evening news a lot better than MF global did. Its hard to see how the price could be suppressed the way it is if buyers exit the paper market because they lost faith in it. There have to be paper buyers if you want to sell paper. >>
In a free market system this could happen, however if this were to happen the comex would change the rules with the government's blessing.
The government needs to keep fiat money and paper trading alive and well as there simply is not enough gold and silver available to satisfy the amount of paper out there. If a run on the banks happened history would repeat itself and there would be a national "bank holiday" declared.
A more likely scenerio is a gradual rise in PM's over time unless TPTB go long gold and silver which could very well result in a blow off top quicker than people expect.
I still wonder if the dollar were replaced by the Amero would this new currency be just another form of FIAT or would PM's be used to back the new currency.
If this were to happen the dollar value of PM's would have to rise exponentially to equal the amount of currency in the system.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>about the only thing that could cause it within 12 months would have to involve radiation. >>
Would'nt that require Oddjob & Goldfinger
Steve
<< <i>
<< <i>about the only thing that could cause it within 12 months would have to involve radiation. >>
Would'nt that require Oddjob & Goldfinger
Steve >>
No, it can be done with the push of a button.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>about the only thing that could cause it within 12 months would have to involve radiation. >>
I think gold hits $500 with such an event. Not $5000.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gecko never answered the question. Maybe he knew something.
Or not.
The timing for $5,000 does seem a bit unlikely. Even volatility has dropped off for the moment.
Sinclair's observations on market complacency...
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>So Gecko, how many calls are you going to short on your outlook?
Gecko never answered the question. Maybe he knew something.
Or not.
The timing for $5,000 does seem a bit unlikely. Even volatility has dropped off for the moment.
Sinclair's observations on market complacency... >>
Mr. Sinclair should study the gold volatility index. But as usual, people only like to see what they want to see. Apply his reasoning to this chart....
For more pretty charts CLICK HERE
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
His reasoning would be that the gold volatility index seems to be tracking the Greek debt crisis. And now it is solved. But, not really.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Mr. Sinclair should study the gold volatility index. But as usual, people only like to see what they want to see. Apply his reasoning to this chart....
His reasoning would be that the gold volatility index seems to be tracking the Greek debt crisis. And now it is solved. But, not really. >>
Then he would be an idiot. And I dont really care what he would think of me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hey, it's a little choppy out there! Does that mean gold is going down further? You tell me, because I don't know and I'll admit it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Lol, I didn't even see the spike on the tail end of this chart.
Hey, it's a little choppy out there! Does that mean gold is going down further? You tell me, because I don't know and I'll admit it.
PM sent
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
$1850-$1900....possibly an overshoot chance to $1900-$2000. But I consider $1800's to be a high probability from here.
2500 ... maybe ... 3500 ... unlikely ... 4500 ... between slim and none, and I think slim is taking the year off
Over the next 5 years I'd consider the above levels as
2500 a lock (98-2), 3500 very realistic (70-30), and 4500 possible (50-50).
What could possibly go wrong?
Exhibit A:
Exhibit B (later, that same year):
And it got much worse before the end of that year (1923).
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Of course, the big difference is that gold did not post 12 consecutive years worth of gains prior to exploding in '79. "Legs" get tired after marathon runs. >>
Marathons are 26 miles, we arent even half way with your logic!
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Two important fudamentals are destroying the value of the dollar and driving the price of gold.
(1) Continued dollar creation by the FED.
The more dollars in the system, the less value each one has. It will take more dollars to buy an ounce of gold as more dollars are created. Additionally, inflation and even the fear of inflation that results from money supply increases will add fuel to the price of gold as it becomes more recognized as a protector of value in one's holdings. For now, inflation will remain in check as long as receivers of the new money (the big banks) elect to continue keeping it on deposit with the FED and out of the hands of consumers and businesses. Look for this to change when/if interest rates rise or the FED changes its policy of what it pays the banks to keep the money with them. This is one of the reasons the FED has it's indefinite zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) - the risk of loaning by the banks to Main Street outweighs the returns of such loans that have a low interest rate. It is no secret that a devalued dollar provides better export returns for the US and also reduces government expenditures on what it pays for its loans and what it pays in cost of living increases to the tens of millions of Americans receiving Social Security benefits and federal pensions. Look for the FED to indefinetly maintain ZIRP and value destroying supply increases.
(2) Loss of world reserve currency status.
Until recently foreign demand for US dollars was guaranteed since it was and is still somewhat required for international trade. This began with oil purchases between nations (under a brilliant agreement between the US and the Saudis) and spread to other forms of trade. More importantly this need for "dollars for oil" includes trade that does not involve the US as one of the two trading partners. Currently approximately 60% of the dollar supply sits outside of the US to facilitate "petrodollar" trading needs. As more countries move toward trading with non-US partners in a currency (and even gold) other than US dollars, foreign demand for dollars continues to drop. Those dollars are coming home and will continue to come home to the US adding to the total dollar supply within the US economy. Again, more dollars in the system, the less value each one carries resulting in rising inflation and greater demand for wealth protection.
Gold will continue to benefit as more and more foreign and US holders of dollars see the writing on the wall and look for alternative ways to protect their wealth. Gold's steady rise over the last ten years is a result of dollar destruction; look for it to pick up pace as the threat to the dollar's future increases. Those that saw the writing on the wall at $600 gold may have gotten a head start, but it is not too late.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>Not this year but it will hit $5000 and more. Here's why: The irreversal demise of the US dollar.
Two important fudamentals are destroying the value of the dollar and driving the price of gold.
(1) Continued dollar creation by the FED.
The more dollars in the system, the less value each one has. It will take more dollars to buy an ounce of gold as more dollars are created. Additionally, inflation and even the fear of inflation that results from money supply increases will add fuel to the price of gold as it becomes more recognized as a protector of value in one's holdings. For now, inflation will remain in check as long as receivers of the new money (the big banks) elect to continue keeping it on deposit with the FED and out of the hands of consumers and businesses. Look for this to change when/if interest rates rise or the FED changes its policy of what it pays the banks to keep the money with them. This is one of the reasons the FED has it's indefinite zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) - the risk of loaning by the banks to Main Street outweighs the returns of such loans that have a low interest rate. It is no secret that a devalued dollar provides better export returns for the US and also reduces government expenditures on what it pays for its loans and what it pays in cost of living increases to the tens of millions of Americans receiving Social Security benefits and federal pensions. Look for the FED to indefinetly maintain ZIRP and value destroying supply increases.
(2) Loss of world reserve currency status.
Until recently foreign demand for US dollars was guaranteed since it was and is still somewhat required for international trade. This began with oil purchases between nations (under a brilliant agreement between the US and the Saudis) and spread to other forms of trade. More importantly this need for "dollars for oil" includes trade that does not involve the US as one of the two trading partners. Currently approximately 60% of the dollar supply sits outside of the US to facilitate "petrodollar" trading needs. As more countries move toward trading with non-US partners in a currency (and even gold) other than US dollars, foreign demand for dollars continues to drop. Those dollars are coming home and will continue to come home to the US adding to the total dollar supply within the US economy. Again, more dollars in the system, the less value each one carries resulting in rising inflation and greater demand for wealth protection.
Gold will continue to benefit as more and more foreign and US holders of dollars see the writing on the wall and look for alternative ways to protect their wealth. Gold's steady rise over the last ten years is a result of dollar destruction; look for it to pick up pace as the threat to the dollar's future increases. Those that saw the writing on the wall at $600 gold may have gotten a head start, but it is not too late. >>
Logic would indicate that your scenarios might be forthcoming. However, PM's are not logic driven animals, but stubborn mules, who couldn't care less about logic but are only motivated in self preservation and greed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
past 11 yrs. Much further to go since the debt is not a static beast. The steady gains in gold over the past consecutive 11 yrs is more a tribute to the central banks not letting
the advance get out of control as it did twice in the 1970's when gold more than doubled in price in 6 months. That has not been allowed to happen...and for good reason with
the panic it would evoke. The lack of CB control in the 1970's lead to more quick highs...and quick lows. Dec 31st 2012 should mark the 12th consecutive higher year for gold.
<< <i>Thanks, self-preservation was my whole point. >>
Don't forget the greed factor that will come in play, when the speculators return. Nothing logical about that ... just plain old speculation. I don't subscribe to the possibility of $5k gold in my lifetime, I'm to much of a realist. If gold ever reaches $3k, it might become cost effective to mine the ocean sea water, where most of the worlds gold is, in minute particles. Yup, $5k gold is the stuff of science fiction and you heard it here first
A problem that many don't consider is that when the money finally sallies forth into the economy, and as prices rise faster - people will start demanding higher wages and those higher wages will bump every wage earner into higher and higher tax brackets.
Money for nothin.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Thanks, self-preservation was my whole point. >>
Don't forget the greed factor that will come in play, when the speculators return. Nothing logical about that ... just plain old speculation. I don't subscribe to the possibility of $5k gold in my lifetime, I'm to much of a realist. If gold ever reaches $3k, it might become cost effective to mine the ocean sea water, where most of the worlds gold is, in minute particles. Yup, $5k gold is the stuff of science fiction and you heard it here first
Ten years ago when gold was at $350 I wonder how many people thought $1750 gold "is the stuff of science fiction?"
The addition of speculators to the gold market adds "money making investment" to the already established "protector of wealth." Speculators create the investment premium.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>" Speculators create the investment premium. >>
And they are the ones that will propel the final 2-3000.00 move up that could potentialy end at $7,000.00 Gold. But pull your trigger fast if you ride it up that high because it will fall just as fast or faster.
Speculation and Greed create amazingly unheard of events that end up making major historical financial history.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Thanks, self-preservation was my whole point. >>
Don't forget the greed factor that will come in play, when the speculators return. Nothing logical about that ... just plain old speculation. I don't subscribe to the possibility of $5k gold in my lifetime, I'm to much of a realist. If gold ever reaches $3k, it might become cost effective to mine the ocean sea water, where most of the worlds gold is, in minute particles. Yup, $5k gold is the stuff of science fiction and you heard it here first
Ten years ago when gold was at $350 I wonder how many people thought $1750 gold "is the stuff of science fiction?"
The addition of speculators to the gold market adds "money making investment" to the already established "protector of wealth." Speculators create the investment premium. >>
Not only are the speculators the investment premium, but also the market makers. Without them, the supply & demand factor would kick in and drive the market. Sufficient supply available in both silver and gold.