<< <i>Not only are the speculators the investment premium, but also the market makers. Without them, the supply & demand factor would kick in and drive the market. Sufficient supply available in both silver and gold. >>
As protection demand grows so does speculative demand. Speculators go where the non-speculators go, hoping to get their first.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yes, Gold WILL hit $5000 "someday"... And so will a decent (but not crazy-fancy) men's hand-tailored suit, or a good (not crazy-fancy) handgun, and so will $5000 be about 1/25 the median annual income in the USA.... "someday"
I'm pretty sure the young people among us will see that particular "someday"
The old codgers probably shouldn't hold their breath waiting for $5000 gold... it sure isn't "right around the next corner"
We middle aged folks might. (depends on many factors, including, as OPA rightly points out, incentives to supply the market at higher prices, including using technology to obtain more gold; one can imagine gold as a nice byproduct of a floating solar powered desalination plant, or, someday as a result of robotic asteroid belt mining)
We will see many cycles of up and down and higher plateaus and working through several resistance levels on the way.
Right now, the metals seem to be to be locked in trading ranges, and churning within the ranges based on market trading and "the news"
The dollar creation story is a good one, and could drive all these prices... there is still not a statisfactory explanation why gold should, in the long term, grow in value MORE than the money supply (which it has, in the short term) or outpace gains in wages, or real estate, or food prices, or stock prices (which it has, again, in the short term) other than the aggregate money sloshing from one asset class to the next with the market.
In 1999, gold was dead, real estate was asleep, stocks were on fire. In 2006, real estate was on fire, gold was waking up, stocks were dead. In 2011, real estate was dead, gold was on fire, stocks were taking a rest. Who the hell knows what will be hot in 2015?
Odds are, it will not be gold, but, of course, I keep forgetting, "this time it's different" (still, the world stubbornly refuses to end )
Comments
<< <i>Not only are the speculators the investment premium, but also the market makers. Without them, the supply & demand factor would kick in and drive the market. Sufficient supply available in both silver and gold. >>
As protection demand grows so does speculative demand. Speculators go where the non-speculators go, hoping to get their first.
Here's something interesting:
IMF working paper proposes how to fix currency and debt crisis and end fractional lending
and, the real reason behind the zero interest rate policy:
lower interest rates have facilitated the US paying the same interest on debt it paid in 2007 even though there is now $7T more outstanding debt
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Yes, Gold WILL hit $5000 "someday"... And so will a decent (but not crazy-fancy) men's hand-tailored suit, or a good (not crazy-fancy) handgun, and so will $5000 be about 1/25 the median annual income in the USA.... "someday"
I'm pretty sure the young people among us will see that particular "someday"
The old codgers probably shouldn't hold their breath waiting for $5000 gold... it sure isn't "right around the next corner"
We middle aged folks might. (depends on many factors, including, as OPA rightly points out, incentives to supply the market at higher prices, including using technology to obtain more gold; one can imagine gold as a nice byproduct of a floating solar powered desalination plant, or, someday as a result of robotic asteroid belt mining)
We will see many cycles of up and down and higher plateaus and working through several resistance levels on the way.
Right now, the metals seem to be to be locked in trading ranges, and churning within the ranges based on market trading and "the news"
The dollar creation story is a good one, and could drive all these prices... there is still not a statisfactory explanation why gold should, in the long term, grow in value MORE than the money supply (which it has, in the short term) or outpace gains in wages, or real estate, or food prices, or stock prices (which it has, again, in the short term) other than the aggregate money sloshing from one asset class to the next with the market.
In 1999, gold was dead, real estate was asleep, stocks were on fire. In 2006, real estate was on fire, gold was waking up, stocks were dead. In 2011, real estate was dead, gold was on fire, stocks were taking a rest. Who the hell knows what will be hot in 2015?
Odds are, it will not be gold, but, of course, I keep forgetting, "this time it's different" (still, the world stubbornly refuses to end
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry