Overall debt levels will always increase simply due to an increasing population. I've already shown you that individual debt levels are more servicable today than at anytime in the last 2 decades.
We we are not close to having recovered the 4.3 million goods producing jobs lost in the Great Recession; 40% of them are still AWOL:
when goods-producing jobs peaked at 25 million back in 1980, there were only 6.7 million jobs in leisure and hospitality. Today that sector employs 16.0 million part-time, low-pay workers or 2.4X the four decade ago level:
Almost back to where we were in 2000:
And no discussion of jobs is complete without looking at the income generated from them:
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
A lot of the data is good. Some is very good. Unfortunately the "not willing workers" category is at all time highs too. Tens of millions sit on the sidelines (or work part-time/for cash/etc for their beer and cigarette money).
We have to cut some of the social "safety net" that is sucking the system dry. Disincentives to full-time work have never been greater. Adults willing to work for $11, $12, $13/hour have disappeared. There are hundreds of $13/hour, full-time jobs with decent benefits in my small area that cannot be filled while thousands sit at home drawing $2,000+/month in gov't benefits. It's a common theme across the U.S. today. If we could get people off the dole and into the job market the picture would be much brighter.
I guess there are more stupid people out there than I thought
No wonder the 1% can exploit so easily.
Such a lack of understanding of demographics. Thank you stupid people!! Using "median" to fool the sheeple. This is so frigging easy. Yeah, all those baby boomers want more fire fighters when the actually spend their time in bars, restaurants, golf courses, and Tupperware patries and yoga classes.
With a name like "stock"man, you'd think this guy might actually be right once a while, but nope, nothing big wrong for that dude for a long time. No wonder he's a "former".
Yes VanHalen, the disincentive to work is great. All we have to do is stop that. Ever hear anyone offer a solution?
Since you're so much smarter than a former Director of the Office of Management and Budget you can be our official 1% representative. Or, you can just remain our resident Wall St. PR guy.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
A politician's number one goal is always to get elected. Don't get elected and nothing else matters. With a demographic increasing dependent on gov't subsidies and those subsidies being increasingly fruitful to the recipients we're in a tough situation. Gotta get the votes to get elected and then Wall Street wags the dog.
I suggest our current $500 billion/year budget deficit could be eliminated if the 10 million Americans on the sidelines got off the dole and started working full-time paying FICA taxes. Somehow someday the elected elite in D.C. will have to face the day of reckoning. The sooner they make the cuts the better our country will be as a whole. I just don't see that day happening in my lifetime. Unless I live another 40 years that is.
I don't represent Wall Street or the 1%. I'm just showing you how all this works. You can despise the mechanism, but that won't keep it from working. Understand how and why and you won't have to rely on hope and promise.
A lot of folks would rather root for the Browns than the Patriots. I get that. But it won't make you a winner. Some folks get so accustomed to losing that they forget how to win. They become so arrogant that their way is right and it is others' who keep them down. We see this everyday in our workplaces. We see it repeated in our elected officials. We read about it in investment newsletters.
The super successful have just learned how to use others' arrogance to their advantage. It's why I can go back and cite a dozen times in this forum when some comment was made and I identified that as a turning point.
Understand the situation. Understand your opponent. Win.
"Who did they lend all that money to? Apparently, a lot of it went to corporations who borrowed it at ultra-low interest rates in order to buy back their own stock, which paid dividends way higher than the interest rate they borrowed at to buy the stuff, and which also pumped up the share value of the stocks, which also happened to make the executives of the corporations way richer in terms of their stock options and bonuses (awarded for boosting the share value of the stock!)."
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
There's a lot of abracadabra at all levels of gov't. I've wondered about the NSA budget which is conservatively estimated at $10 billion/year and could easily be double that.
These "black budget monies" are often grossly underreported. The entire annual budget for the CIA and its 22,000+ employees is about the same price as one new aircraft carrier?
Let's not discuss the present level of this measure of confudence, but rather why the naysayers refuted it for so long. Why did they continue to ignore this improving economic indicator?
This includes the taxi drivers and shoe shiners that give investment advice, right?
Who am I to refute what someone else believes? What I believe is what matters. Put me at about the 94 level, right where small business "optimism" was before things last blew up.
Asking the National Federation of Independent Business membership how business looks in the future is like asking the National Association of Realtors membership about the future of house prices.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
No disrespect meant for your mindset, but you've been preaching that same song & dance routine for at least 7 years. It may or may not happen in your lifetime. My bet, it won't.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
deflation for the past seven years has put the money bomb on delayed fuse. Maybe deflation is the final FED effort to try to prevent the inevitable. Still, a futile, can-kicking exercise on their part. They are in fact running out of cans. They have already pulled one from your cupboard (near zero returns on your dollar savings). Might wanna stock up on some cans.
My mindset is this: Since the big one (2008) monetary policy and government miss-spending have shown disregard for long term protection of the value of the currency. Short term fixes will prove to be short term. I don't expect this to change, do you?
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
derryb .. not so sure about the "near zero" returns. Although they are still near historically lows, they've been slowly creeping up. 6 mos T'bills @ 1.45%...I have a small savings account that is paying 1.3%. Nothing to brag about, but sure beats taking a hit on PM's
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
"Dark Money runs the world" - Nomi Prins, former managing director at Goldman-Sachs , former Senior Managing Director at Bear Stearns, former senior strategist at Lehman Brothers and former analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank.
"Dark money is the #1 secret life force of today’s rigged financial markets. It drives whole markets up and down. It’s the reason for today’s financial bubbles."
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
@derryb said:
deflation for the past seven years has put the money bomb on delayed fuse. Maybe deflation is the final FED effort to try to prevent the inevitable. Still, a futile, can-kicking exercise on their part. They are in fact running out of cans. They have already pulled one from your cupboard (near zero returns on your dollar savings). Might wanna stock up on some cans.
My mindset is this: Since the big one (2008) monetary policy and government miss-spending have shown disregard for long term protection of the value of the currency. Short term fixes will prove to be short term. I don't expect this to change, do you?
Only deflation is in precious metals. All other asset classes have done a tremendous job of "saving and protecting" dollars and wealth. Gold, well, not so much. And such an obvious call it was.
In the 30 years since I graduated from college the U.S. economy has grown by an average of 4.5% per year. Excellent by any measure. Meanwhile the U.S. equity markets have grown by 9%+ per year over the same period.
Holey compound interest Batman! Just a little humor for your Sunday night.
@VanHalen said:
Tell me about it. I feel like I'm 60 some days.
In the 30 years since I graduated from college the U.S. economy has grown by an average of 4.5% per year. Excellent by any measure. Meanwhile the U.S. equity markets have grown by 9%+ per year over the same period.
Holey compound interest Batman! Just a little humor for your Sunday night.
Equity markets have returned 9% per year for more than 30 years. Its a trend that has doomed the doomsayers for a century.
@VanHalen said:
Tell me about it. I feel like I'm 60 some days.
In the 30 years since I graduated from college the U.S. economy has grown by an average of 4.5% per year. Excellent by any measure. Meanwhile the U.S. equity markets have grown by 9%+ per year over the same period.
Holey compound interest Batman! Just a little humor for your Sunday night.
Equity markets have returned 9% per year for more than 30 years. Its a trend that has doomed the doomsayers for a century.
It is amazing. For many decades until the mid-1980's equity market growth trailed GDP growth nearly 50%. See 1927 to 1987 where GDP grew an average of ~6%/year while U.S. equities grew at a ~3% annual rate.
For the last 30 years the numbers have inversed and U.S. equities have grown at a 9%+ rate while GDP has struggled to average 4% (the 4.5% quote was a tad high).
See what happened in the mid-1980's to send equities on a crazy ride to the moon? Here's the DJIA for the last 90 years.
As illustrated in the Dark Money chart above, equities, since the last financial crisis, have grown in tandem with the FED's balance sheet (new money). Coincidence? Not hardly. Price manipulation? You betcha. Question now is what will the FED use as a potency pill to keep it up.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
And, according to the Bank of International Settlements one out of ten corporations in emerging and advanced countries could not survive without a flow of cheap financing. Not only has new money from the FED driven equities, so has cheap money.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Comments
Number of available jobs at decades highs....
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Do they pay as much as an unemployment check?
Are they full time?
Are they in the food service industry?
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
https://www.indeed.com/m/jobs?q=&l=Jacksonville,+FL
Look to be well in excess of unemployment compensation.
Full-time or more.
The vast and overwhelming majority are not food service.
Anymore attempts at discrediting truth?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I dare not tread on your specialty.
Why real money matters
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Everyone is doing better
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Another strong report..
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-november-2017-12
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
good sign that consumer spending borrowing is still increasing.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Overall debt levels will always increase simply due to an increasing population. I've already shown you that individual debt levels are more servicable today than at anytime in the last 2 decades.
Why does this not make sense to you?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking and all the children are above average.
I knew it would happen.
David Stockman on the great jobs recovery:
We we are not close to having recovered the 4.3 million goods producing jobs lost in the Great Recession; 40% of them are still AWOL:
when goods-producing jobs peaked at 25 million back in 1980, there were only 6.7 million jobs in leisure and hospitality. Today that sector employs 16.0 million part-time, low-pay workers or 2.4X the four decade ago level:
Almost back to where we were in 2000:
And no discussion of jobs is complete without looking at the income generated from them:
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
What You're Not Being Told About The Real Economy
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
A lot of the data is good. Some is very good. Unfortunately the "not willing workers" category is at all time highs too. Tens of millions sit on the sidelines (or work part-time/for cash/etc for their beer and cigarette money).
We have to cut some of the social "safety net" that is sucking the system dry. Disincentives to full-time work have never been greater. Adults willing to work for $11, $12, $13/hour have disappeared. There are hundreds of $13/hour, full-time jobs with decent benefits in my small area that cannot be filled while thousands sit at home drawing $2,000+/month in gov't benefits. It's a common theme across the U.S. today. If we could get people off the dole and into the job market the picture would be much brighter.
I guess there are more stupid people out there than I thought
No wonder the 1% can exploit so easily.
Such a lack of understanding of demographics. Thank you stupid people!! Using "median" to fool the sheeple. This is so frigging easy. Yeah, all those baby boomers want more fire fighters when the actually spend their time in bars, restaurants, golf courses, and Tupperware patries and yoga classes.
With a name like "stock"man, you'd think this guy might actually be right once a while, but nope, nothing big wrong for that dude for a long time. No wonder he's a "former".
Yes VanHalen, the disincentive to work is great. All we have to do is stop that. Ever hear anyone offer a solution?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Since you're so much smarter than a former Director of the Office of Management and Budget you can be our official 1% representative. Or, you can just remain our resident Wall St. PR guy.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
A politician's number one goal is always to get elected. Don't get elected and nothing else matters. With a demographic increasing dependent on gov't subsidies and those subsidies being increasingly fruitful to the recipients we're in a tough situation. Gotta get the votes to get elected and then Wall Street wags the dog.
I suggest our current $500 billion/year budget deficit could be eliminated if the 10 million Americans on the sidelines got off the dole and started working full-time paying FICA taxes. Somehow someday the elected elite in D.C. will have to face the day of reckoning. The sooner they make the cuts the better our country will be as a whole. I just don't see that day happening in my lifetime. Unless I live another 40 years that is.
I don't represent Wall Street or the 1%. I'm just showing you how all this works. You can despise the mechanism, but that won't keep it from working. Understand how and why and you won't have to rely on hope and promise.
A lot of folks would rather root for the Browns than the Patriots. I get that. But it won't make you a winner. Some folks get so accustomed to losing that they forget how to win. They become so arrogant that their way is right and it is others' who keep them down. We see this everyday in our workplaces. We see it repeated in our elected officials. We read about it in investment newsletters.
The super successful have just learned how to use others' arrogance to their advantage. It's why I can go back and cite a dozen times in this forum when some comment was made and I identified that as a turning point.
Understand the situation. Understand your opponent. Win.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Abracadabra - the FED balance sheet scam
"Who did they lend all that money to? Apparently, a lot of it went to corporations who borrowed it at ultra-low interest rates in order to buy back their own stock, which paid dividends way higher than the interest rate they borrowed at to buy the stuff, and which also pumped up the share value of the stocks, which also happened to make the executives of the corporations way richer in terms of their stock options and bonuses (awarded for boosting the share value of the stock!)."
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
There's a lot of abracadabra at all levels of gov't. I've wondered about the NSA budget which is conservatively estimated at $10 billion/year and could easily be double that.
These "black budget monies" are often grossly underreported. The entire annual budget for the CIA and its 22,000+ employees is about the same price as one new aircraft carrier?
national/black-budget
Britian's Central Bank Warns Of "Economic Collapse" If UK Keeps Borrowing Money
And US sovereign debt is not a problem?
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Not in our lifetimes. Political instability and social unrest are bigger concerns.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Let's not discuss the present level of this measure of confudence, but rather why the naysayers refuted it for so long. Why did they continue to ignore this improving economic indicator?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This includes the taxi drivers and shoe shiners that give investment advice, right?
Who am I to refute what someone else believes? What I believe is what matters. Put me at about the 94 level, right where small business "optimism" was before things last blew up.
Asking the National Federation of Independent Business membership how business looks in the future is like asking the National Association of Realtors membership about the future of house prices.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
...or asking purveyors of sht colored glasses about the outlook for sht storms?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
I thought this was a bitcoin chart. ;-)
No disrespect meant for your mindset, but you've been preaching that same song & dance routine for at least 7 years. It may or may not happen in your lifetime. My bet, it won't.
deflation for the past seven years has put the money bomb on delayed fuse. Maybe deflation is the final FED effort to try to prevent the inevitable. Still, a futile, can-kicking exercise on their part. They are in fact running out of cans. They have already pulled one from your cupboard (near zero returns on your dollar savings). Might wanna stock up on some cans.
My mindset is this: Since the big one (2008) monetary policy and government miss-spending have shown disregard for long term protection of the value of the currency. Short term fixes will prove to be short term. I don't expect this to change, do you?
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
derryb .. not so sure about the "near zero" returns. Although they are still near historically lows, they've been slowly creeping up. 6 mos T'bills @ 1.45%...I have a small savings account that is paying 1.3%. Nothing to brag about, but sure beats taking a hit on PM's
One takes a hit on PMs only if one sells below what was paid.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Or if one considers the opportunity cost of investing in PMs vs. the many better-performing alternatives during the time frame in question.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
One must also consider risk.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Most of us with some intelligence know that. It's not an actual loss until you sell, but it sure is a paper loss.
Sorta like devalued dollars - not a loss until you spend them.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
"Dark Money runs the world" - Nomi Prins, former managing director at Goldman-Sachs , former Senior Managing Director at Bear Stearns, former senior strategist at Lehman Brothers and former analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank.
"Dark money is the #1 secret life force of today’s rigged financial markets. It drives whole markets up and down. It’s the reason for today’s financial bubbles."
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Something the gold bugs obviously didn't consider.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Only deflation is in precious metals. All other asset classes have done a tremendous job of "saving and protecting" dollars and wealth. Gold, well, not so much. And such an obvious call it was.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Interesting resume....
Bear Stearns...failed.
Lehman Bros....failed.
I guess alternative fact writing pays the bills.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Oftentimes opportunity lost is much greater than paper or financial loss. And nothing is a great as time loss.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
tick tock. . .
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Yup....you're not getting any younger.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Tell me about it. I feel like I'm 60 some days.
In the 30 years since I graduated from college the U.S. economy has grown by an average of 4.5% per year. Excellent by any measure. Meanwhile the U.S. equity markets have grown by 9%+ per year over the same period.
Holey compound interest Batman!
Just a little humor for your Sunday night.
Equity markets have returned 9% per year for more than 30 years. Its a trend that has doomed the doomsayers for a century.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It is amazing. For many decades until the mid-1980's equity market growth trailed GDP growth nearly 50%. See 1927 to 1987 where GDP grew an average of ~6%/year while U.S. equities grew at a ~3% annual rate.
For the last 30 years the numbers have inversed and U.S. equities have grown at a 9%+ rate while GDP has struggled to average 4% (the 4.5% quote was a tad high).
See what happened in the mid-1980's to send equities on a crazy ride to the moon?
Here's the DJIA for the last 90 years.
As illustrated in the Dark Money chart above, equities, since the last financial crisis, have grown in tandem with the FED's balance sheet (new money). Coincidence? Not hardly. Price manipulation? You betcha. Question now is what will the FED use as a potency pill to keep it up.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Two things immediately jump out about that chart: why aren't the Y axes labelled?? And why does it end in 2013?
Would it cease to be a "coincidence" if it were updated to today, and if the magnitude of the relationship were revealed?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Tail wagging the dog? Is there really any doubt that the FED has been driving equities? Really?
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Wow, guess we all should have been owning equities, huh? Right?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
AND taking advantage of low PM prices. FED can't prop up the equities indefinitely.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
And, according to the Bank of International Settlements one out of ten corporations in emerging and advanced countries could not survive without a flow of cheap financing. Not only has new money from the FED driven equities, so has cheap money.
"When the rule of law collapses, civilization can no longer survive." - Martin Armstrong
Market is 40% higher than the end of that chart.....but no increase in Fed balance sheet. Another myth debunked.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear