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GOLD AND SILVER, ECONOMIC NEWS, COINS, 2016

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  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,905 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Please expound.

    The solution to the 2008 crisis was massive bailouts, monetary stimulus via quantitative easing, and a re-defining of bad mortgage loan debt derivatives that the banks were liable for on their balance sheets. There were no consequences for the banks' mismanagement and unconscionable actions in scamming the public and other institutions with crappy financial products that will never pay out.

    Fast forward to today. Low interest rates and $trillions in QE later - the economy is still dependent upon free money and the Fed is allegedly going to cut back on the free money. Please note what happened to the stock market the last time that the Fed tried to cut back on free money (see "taper tantrum").

    A deflationary crash is quite possible if the Fed actually does cut back on free money. Aside from repatriation of petrodollars resulting from Russia's & China's move towards a regional currency regime, any downturn in stock prices might precipitate a selling trend.

    None of this considers the bond market, which is a Ponzi unto itself, based on future expectations of payment promises that can't be met without a) more massive money creation and b) fairly hefty tax increases (which are bound to be UN-popular across the board, except for the 51% that would like to see everyone else carry their water for them as long as they can get away with the free stuff to which they've become so accustomed).

    The only real question I see is whether the Fed & gov.com can pull off another debt increase by ANOTHER order of magnitude without blowing up the whole "system".

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    QT1 will result in QE4

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2017 4:36AM

    @derryb said:
    Robert Shiller: The one thing preventing a 1929 like crash

    "Market psychology."

    I wonder just how quickly that can change.

    http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/2014/09/shillers-warning-suggests-sp-500s-bubble-is-coming-to-an-end/

    Shiller has been running scared for years..note date.

    The internet and housing bubbles were clearly evident and extreme. In 2000 companies were trading at 100x revenue and big multinational companies trading at 100x earnings. In 2006 garages in NJ were being converted into studios and selling for 300k. Average price per Sq ft in FL was over 200. Mortgages were given to folks at 10x their income. Foreign equity markets were up 5-10x.

    The current markets look nothing like previous bubbles...IE, gold in 2011.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2017 4:30AM

    Please note what happened to the stock market the last time that the Fed tried to cut back on free money (see "taper tantrum").

    I assume you are talking about 2013...I'll note the SP500 was up 14% a year later and 30% for the full year of 2013.

    I see zero evidence of the market being reliant on low rates. In fact, I see market participants demanding higher rates.

    Russia's & China's move towards a regional currency regime

    Russia will never have a currency accepted by the world, save for nafarious regimes such as Iran and North Korea. This is a complete non-issue that should be wiped clear of your thoughts. And China...let them bear the burden of a reserve currency in Asia. I fully support it.

    None of this considers the bond market, which is a Ponzi unto itself, based on future expectations of payment promises that can't be met without a) more massive money creation and b) fairly hefty tax increases (which are bound to be UN-popular across the board

    Not a Ponzi scheme, but thats irrelevant. There will be higher taxes and money creation....count on it. And there are lots of ways to benefit.

    The only real question I see is whether the Fed & gov.com can pull off another debt increase by ANOTHER order of magnitude

    Why would they need to?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Interesting article @derryb . I thought silver was dead when it came to solar panels but I guess it is a slow death. Palladium is on fire. What's that used for other than catalytic converters?

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @hchcoin said:
    Palladium is on fire. What's that used for other than catalytic converters?

    A: New coins that look like big Mercury dimes on the front and a hungry eagle from the WLH on the back.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 9, 2017 2:10PM

    That's how they get more than spot per ounce in the market, make it pretty.

    Then folks add some plastic and paper and the number 70 and some more typed words and letters and numbers and then sell them for EVEN MORE!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 16, 2017 9:05AM

    EU Preparing for the Banking Crisis

    "The current EU plan envisages blocking account disbursements for five working days and with the authority to extend any suspension to up to 20 days. They may need longer!"

    Bloomberg's take

    Fractional banking at its finest. With 90% of bank deposits loaned back out this tool is a necessity to protect the banks from their own greed.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 16, 2017 8:58AM

    PayPal to sell $6 billion of loans

    "The transaction will allow PayPal to continue arranging loans for its customers. . ."

    Well, at least PP won't need a bailout. . . for now.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,124 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Quick way to eliminate a potential drain on the bottom line.

    "Some 12% of PayPal's outstanding balances are owed by subprime borrowers who have credit scores below 599 on a scale that tops out at 850, according to the company."

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OPA said:
    Quick way to eliminate a potential drain on the bottom line.

    "Some 12% of PayPal's outstanding balances are owed by subprime borrowers who have credit scores below 599 on a scale that tops out at 850, according to the company."

    Paypal credit's "Buy Now Pay Later" scheme has been around forever. When you "pay later" the demand is for a cash form of payment that some buyers will struggle to accomplish. If it's only a 12% write-off then Paypal will be fortunate.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 18, 2017 5:21AM

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)? Don't let the foxes count your chickens - you're sure to end up missing a few.

    What is the real unemployment rate?

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)? Don't let the foxes count your chickens - you're sure to end up missing a few.

    What is the real unemployment rate?

    I bet that rate is at an all time low in many states also.

    Take off those sh-- colored sunglasses.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 19, 2017 5:09AM

    @derryb said:

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)? Don't let the foxes count your chickens - you're sure to end up missing a few.

    What is the real unemployment rate?

    Wow...only 92% of Americans have gainful employment. Such a travesty.

    Remember in grade school when in gym class everyone stood in a line and 2 captains would pick players to be on the team. You remember being one of the last 3 picked, right derryb? Lol Anyway, those last 3 were marginal players, perhaps even detrimental to the team. The team would have played better without those last 3. This is the same as today's economy. Go visit those 8 of out 100 who feel they can't find gainful employment. I think you discover real quick why they cant.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Your assumption that an 8% unemployment rate means 92% are fully employed shows your ignorance on BLS data and how it is calculated. Spend more time in research and less time trolling.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Your assumption that an 8% unemployment rate means 92% are fully employed shows your ignorance on BLS data and how it is calculated. Spend more time in research and less time trolling.

    I prefer casting over trolling. A nice long drift with a center pin being my preferred angleing method though.

    As far as economics. ....keep trying derryb. Keep trying.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    more research, less trolling.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • KkathylKkathyl Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Only half the country is working and the other half feeding off. Heating up the economy and getting folks off the dole will go far in my opinion. Next time won’t be so easy to get back on either. Not sure if the Silver will change much wondering if mining costs or reduction in new mining will equal out the surplus. Has China reversed the Subsidies. Will other subsidies or solar demand help. Was wondering these thing last week doing the back of napkin calculations. I’m still ok with prices as they are today.

    Best place to buy !
    Bronze Associate member

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Kkathyl said:
    Only half the country is working and the other half feeding off. Heating up the economy and getting folks off the dole will go far in my opinion..........

    Half the country that IS working are either part-time and/or low-income and pay little/no income taxes. There are roughly 75 million Americans that are NOT low income: Put another way 75 million/325 million leaves us with 77% of all Americans are NOT paying (essentially zero in budgetary terms) income taxes.

    These figures are well documented in the literature. The good things is the top 5% of all earners (who pay almost all individual Federal tax revenue) have very high incomes ($250k+/year). They pay the rent. :)

  • KkathylKkathyl Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @VanHalen it’s scary to think that those not paying taxes believe that they are due benifits and more and more. The Elite sold us out for Political power along time ago. Term limits and draining the swamp in order. We are on borrowed time.

    Best place to buy !
    Bronze Associate member

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In the words of one of our great Founding Fathers Benjamin Franklin, "When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic."

    goodreads.com/quotes

    Our $8 trillion/year government spending (Federal, state, local) is on the launching pad set to go parabolic when the 50 million Baby Boomers who are still working retire over the next 15 years. We have a couple decades to $100 trillion in reported Federal debt alone.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 20, 2017 6:31AM

    @derryb said:
    more research, less trolling.

    All I seem to catch are beat up, old, toothless, mushy-meat carp. Lol

    If you really want to discuss in a logical, rational and intelligent manner then let's go. But if you prefer to speak through opinion formed of misinformation and contempt then be prepared to be called out. If you can't take it, then too bad. Stop acting like the snowflakes you so despise.

    Take a break. Travel this country and see the vibrancy and shear awesomeness of the great land. But stay away from CT and RI, seems pretty depressing there. Lol

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 20, 2017 7:23AM

    More research, less trolling. Your attempts to discredit the messenger and not the message indicate a need for a better understanding of the message. Call me out all you wish, you've been doing it for years while the message remains unchanged and very clear to those with their eyes and ears open. I suspect your ego blinds your ability to be rational.

    In all fairness to our fellow members who are here to discuss precious metals, let's you and I keep our contempt of each other to ourselves. It remains clear that I have my reasons for buying precious metals and equally clear that you see no reason to. Time will prove who is correct. Let's leave it at that and focus future discussion on the topic, not each other.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't need to discredit you, you do a fine job yourself.

    So I cant discuss the (mis)information you post? What kind of forum is that? You dictate the discussions, and say I have an ego?

    I don't have any contempt for you. None.

    Post accurate, unslanted, unbiased, non-emotional news/information in this forum and we will all benefit.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Unfortunately, as shown above, you are not capable of simply discussing the information.

    Who determines accuracy, slant, bias and emotion - you? I suspect our readership is capable of doing this on their own.

    Maybe we need a thread "Gold and Silver Economic News Approved by Cohodk." Otherwise, don't be such a bully. It discredits you.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 21, 2017 4:18AM

    Well, then prove what I write as incorrect, false, or biased. This is done by presenting an argument supported by facts that can be corroborated via many sources.

    The problem we have is that I tend to believe stats prepared by independent economists, banking institutions, govt statisticians and, most importantly, my own extensive "boots on the ground" experiences and personal relationships among folks in myriad professions. While you tend to believe Russian backed news outlets, bullion peddlers, and for-fee newsletter writers whos agenda is to instill fear, loathing, contempt, anger, and manipulation and conspiracy theories.

    Yeah, I'm call out that crap, so be prepared to defend it.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 21, 2017 7:51AM

    "Russian backed news outlets?" What are you, a politician?

    I have no need to defend anything except your personal attacks. I present differing opinion whether I agree or not. A narrow mind results in tunnel vision, even with the rose colored glasses.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 21, 2017 8:49AM

    Nope, I'm not a politician...they tell lies, twist the truth, deal in misinformation and usually have an agenda to push. Are you a politician? ;)

    Why would you present an opinion you do not agree with, especially if you don't say you disagree with it. If you cannot defend or support a position, then why even present it? Opinion without conviction is sh--.

    I look forward to much more spirited debate.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Why would you present an opinion you do not agree with, especially if you don't say you disagree with it. If you cannot defend or support a position, then why even present it? Opinion without conviction is sh--.

    because my fellow forumites are entitled the opportunity to evaluate the opinion of others for themselves. One censor on the forum is enough.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You guys need to get a room. ;)

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,124 ✭✭✭✭✭

    As the saying goes: "My mind is made up, don't confuse me with the facts." B) That sums up the arguments made by both players.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dpoole said:
    You guys need to get a room. ;)

    too late, I filed for divorce.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    At least this thread is a bit more lively. Remember the good old days?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Did I miss something?

    Socrates: "Truth is rarely obvious. What is obvious is rarely true."

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 30, 2017 1:02PM

    US Household Debt Is Rising 60% Faster Than Wages

    But don't worry, the economy debt is booming.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

    Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

    Decades, yes decades low. Ignore the doomsayers with their sh-- colored glassed

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 30, 2017 4:31PM

    Is this chart from the same FED that is still trying to keep the economy from blowing up, again?

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Is this chart from the same FED that is still trying to keep the economy from blowing up, again?

    You sure seem to post a lot of charts from this very source, so it must be trustworthy.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 30, 2017 4:46PM

    In 2000, an average mortgage rate was 8%, so 100k mortgage would have costo $734/ month. Today, one would have to borrow $143k to have the same monthly payment. So an increase in debt does not require increased income. However, since wages are higher today than in 2000, that same monthly payment can be made much easier.

    So you can believe that chart posted above, which I've proven, or you can continue to wear your sh-- glasses.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 30, 2017 5:03PM

    @cohodk said:
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

    Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

    Decades, yes decades low. Ignore the doomsayers with their sh-- colored glassed

    You choose to paint a rosier (pun intended) picture by comparing consumer debt to disposable income. Not the same as comparing debt to wages. Fact remains US Household Debt Is Rising 60% Faster Than Wages, proven using Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the FED. Changing topic to debt's percent of disposable income does not alter the fact that debt is rising faster than income. Just another example of your "look over here" in hopes we don't see what's in front of us.

    Debt is the ultimate ponzi scheme. We all know how it will eventually end. The FED in their multiple attempts to extend its life, since debt went on life support in 2008, is making its ultimate carnage only worse.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Please prove to me that debt servicing payments are at highs. I've shown you that folks have an easier time managing their debt than in the last 30 years. I waiting to be proven wrong.

    All I hear is hyperbole..."life support", "ultimate carnage". Please show me how people can't afford this debt. And by people I don't mean your brothers cousins uncle can't pay his bills.

    Yes, eventually there will be too much debt....how many centuries you got to wait?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No doubt overall disposable income is at all time highs making "Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income" look good. The problem is 2/3 of the country has almost none of the disposable income while the top 1/3 has almost all of it.

    Averages are back backers. With so much of the income concentrated at the top the "Percent of Disposable Personal Income" stats are deceptive to say the least.

    Our current economy is much like the guy with man who had one foot in a bucket of boiling hot water and another foot in a bucket of ice cold water. The man said, 'on average, I feel pretty good"!

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,188 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Jobless claims at 40 year lows....and this on a population base twice as great. Wow!!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,953 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 7, 2017 9:24AM

    @cohodk said:
    Jobless claims at 40 year lows....and this on a population base twice as great. Wow!!!

    This would be the number of new unemployment benefit claims and does not include those already receiving the benefit. What this means is that the number of new claims has slowed. Unemployment benefit claims data is skewed by the fact that is does not consider those whose benefits expired or those who are otherwise not eligible for the benefit (i.e. self employed). And then there's all those part-time workers who can't find full time work - but are considered fully "employed" by the government bean counters.

    But hey, everything is wonderful. Almost as great as it was in 2007.

    Best time to grab a chair is before the music stops.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Is a broken calendar right twice a decade?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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