Old and new participants, start thinking about your 2013 entries, at this time the group had 15 separate investment ideas that have outperformed silver (the best performing PM) so far this year. This includes the ever popular MILK, proving that anything is indeed possible
Wingsrule, are you willing to keep track again? This thread would have been stillborn without your contributions!
<< <i>Old and new participants, start thinking about your 2013 entries, at this time the group had 15 separate investment ideas that have outperformed silver (the best performing PM) so far this year. This includes the ever popular MILK, proving that anything is indeed possible
Wingsrule, are you willing to keep track again? This thread would have been stillborn without your contributions! >>
Milk outperforming silver? I thought there was no inflation.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
<< <i>Milk outperforming silver? I thought there was no inflation.
Only if you don't eat, heat your house or drive anywhere. >>
If there's general price inflation, everything should go up and stay up, shouldn't it? Seasonal, situational, supply/demand and market preference changes, and other cyclical fluctuations do not necessarily indicate monetary inflation driving prices?
I don't know the sources, but it would be great to update the charts in this thread:
There is no inflation and never will be because if there was they'd have to increase the SS payments with COL's. If there was inflation then the FED would have to bump interest rates and can you imagine what that would do for T-bills and the cost to the GOVT for stringing this recession/depressionII out any further?
If you set the rules you can make your own numbers up.
<< <i>Milk outperforming silver? I thought there was no inflation.
Only if you don't eat, heat your house or drive anywhere. >>
If there's general price inflation, everything should go up and stay up, shouldn't it? Seasonal, situational, supply/demand and market preference changes, and other cyclical fluctuations do not necessarily indicate monetary inflation driving prices?
I don't know the sources, but it would be great to update the charts in this thread:
So far, the big corporations that supply most consumer goods have eaten a lot of the price increases. They can do this because the FED/Treasury has skewed interest rates and the cost of capital. Once the cost of capital starts to reflect the consistently rising M2 (7-10% yoy for the past 17 yrs), then costs will have to be passed on to consumers. Despite the Fedanigans, plenty of items have still risen in price. The economy will continue to show both price inflation (things we need or are in fairly short supply) and deflation (things we don't need or are plentiful) for the foreseeable future. For steady price inflation one only has to look at health care where I've seen a steady 10% per year increase in my rates for the past 3 yrs. Personally, my cost of living has increased each year due to food, insurance, health care, energy, professional services and skilled labor, home improvement supplies, taxes, and fees. Can't thing of any professional labor services I've used in the past few years that has gone down (ie not lawyers, not plumbers, not electricians, not well drillers, not roofers, not burner techs, not auto mechanics, not tree removers, etc.).
<< <i>Cohodk's investment is an interesting lesson on options -- it was a great idea, but the timing didn't quite work out! >>
Indeed. Right about "fundamentals" and still lose money. Interesting indeed.
I wish I could roll my options out just one more month. >>
It reminds me of something I told my young nephew after he bought his first options. I asked him his reason for taking a certain position, and he said something about PE ratio. I scolded him, that is a good road to the poor house, buying options based on PE ratio. It is not that Cohodk needs this kind of story, but there are a lot of total option novices reading along.
Another quick tip, is that the delta of an option is also the approximate odds of making money if held to expiration. So an option with a delta of .50 (moves 50 cents for a dollar move in the underlying) has about a 50/50 chance of making or losing money if held to expiration. At the money options tend to have deltas near 50. Out of the money options tend to have smaller deltas and smaller chances of making money if held to expiration. My young nephew bought "long shot options," with a delta of about .07 (the option moves 7 cents for a dollar move in the underlying), so he had about a 7% chance of making money. He didn't realize the poor odds. He focused on the dream of that long shot coming in and the huge money that he would make. Of course, over the course of time, only a few long shots come in, that's why they are long shots.
For the most part, the option odds-makers get it very close. Just like the bookies that make NFL game lines, over time, over averages, the point spreads tend to get it very close, the pro option players are extremely sophisticated and do not give away money.
You'll excuse me for being a bit sparse on the boards; tweaked my shoulder from all of the patting on the back I've been doing for picking a stock that lost a remarkable 93% this year. Now that is tough to beat.
great points, RedTiger - and the analogy of options MMs as bookies nails it.
Strikes me as kinda ..well...how do I say this politely....funny..... that the 'pro' investment traders who like options have finished way back in the pack.
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough?
<< <i>Strikes me as kinda ..well...how do I say this politely....funny..... that the 'pro' investment traders who like options have finished way back in the pack.
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough? >>
Your comments are out of line, way out of line. Overall your attitude makes serious people much less likely to contribute. Just because you had some luck in this year's contest, it means near nothing, except bragging rights over some beers. Like I said early in the thread, serious investors and traders tend not to spend much time or energy on contests, because they are for the most part a total waste of time and energy. It speaks poorly to the seriousness of those here, that they are so focused on a contest thread. Serious people tend to spend their time on their real money accounts. There is so much luck involved in a contest like this it is near pointless. Besides, as an options trader my time horizon is focused on one to two months, not a year.
Does anyone that has visited my blog, believe that I couldn't put on some head-spinning exotic option trade for some contest? What would be the point of that? Fewer than 1% of investors have an in-depth knowledge of options. With options just about any possible outcome can be drawn up, it is all about the odds. Want a 100x winner? Sure, but it will have about a 1% chance of cashing the ticket. Would anyone learn a lesson if I drew up a 100x winner and rolled 00 to cash the ticket? Not a wit, except to take reckless long shot chances at the craps table. Want a much more likely 10% gain for the year, ok, 90% of the time it will work out that way.
I hope a few people looked at my picks and noted the extreme rock solid steadiness of their performance. The permanent portfolio is a time tested, low volatility model that has had a very good run. It may not work in the future, however, plenty of people here could take a lesson from that, than from any head spinner option position, that virtually no one could understand, or could try and emulate in their own accounts. There is a LOT of sage advice in my three picks BND, VTI, GLD. Those that can not see it and choose to criticize, again, are out of line, way out of line.
Want to win a contest? Pick some penny stock, or a high volatility stock, or throw a single dart, or pick some leveraged product. There done. Want to make real money in a real market consistently with a good risk to reward profile, that's a different cup of tea.
<< <i>Strikes me as kinda ..well...how do I say this politely....funny..... that the 'pro' investment traders who like options have finished way back in the pack.
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough? >>
I know I'm just wasting my breath but my options did trade at 27 dollars for a gain of 60 percent. And the underlying stock that I thought was going to fall did indeed drop over 30 percent.
The best way to win something like this is to leverage up and try to guess what the landscape will look like 1 year later. I made choices based on what I thought would do well, instead of what **might** win.
I do note that the average percentage gain of the top 3 do not outweigh the average percentage loss of the bottom 3, so leverage does have its pitfalls.
My contest was vs. the market and the market averages, and I only regret that I wasn't smart enough to beat Dart Throw #1 and Dart Throw #2.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Strikes me as kinda ..well...how do I say this politely....funny..... that the 'pro' investment traders who like options have finished way back in the pack.
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough? >>
Your comments are out of line, way out of line. Overall your attitude makes serious people much less likely to contribute. Just because you had some luck in this year's contest, it means near nothing, except bragging rights over some beers. Like I said early in the thread, serious investors and traders tend not to spend much time or energy on contests, because they are for the most part a total waste of time and energy. It speaks poorly to the seriousness of those here, that they are so focused on a contest thread. Serious people tend to spend their time on their real money accounts. There is so much luck involved in a contest like this it is near pointless. Besides, as an options trader my time horizon is focused on one to two months, not a year.
Does anyone that has visited my blog, believe that I couldn't put on some head-spinning exotic option trade for some contest? What would be the point of that? Fewer than 1% of investors have an in-depth knowledge of options. With options just about any possible outcome can be drawn up, it is all about the odds. Want a 100x winner? Sure, but it will have about a 1% chance of cashing the ticket. Would anyone learn a lesson if I drew up a 100x winner and rolled 00 to cash the ticket? Not a wit, except to take reckless long shot chances at the craps table. Want a much more likely 10% gain for the year, ok, 90% of the time it will work out that way.
I hope a few people looked at my picks and noted the extreme rock solid steadiness of their performance. The permanent portfolio is a time tested, low volatility model that has had a very good run. It may not work in the future, however, plenty of people here could take a lesson from that, than from any head spinner option position, that virtually no one could understand, or could try and emulate in their own accounts. There is a LOT of sage advice in my three picks BND, VTI, GLD. Those that can not see it and choose to criticize, again, are out of line, way out of line.
Want to win a contest? Pick some penny stock, or a high volatility stock, or throw a single dart, or pick some leveraged product. There done. Want to make real money in a real market consistently with a good risk to reward profile, that's a different cup of tea. >>
Sorry you feel that way Redtiger. I do not brag and I would hope that people who have opinions on this little ditty would venture their opinions in 2013. I just got lucky with one pick. I do not make a living any longer giving investment advice but did for 20 years when I was selling retail commercial property for Grubb & Ellis. Best to you.
the thread was for fun, entertainment, "something to do", and possibly for some learning and shared experiences and comaraderie, hope it was successful on those fronts, I've enjoyed it and once again must thank the hardworking Wingsrule for the tracking spreadsheet that makes it worthwhile, and all the constructive contributors. I'd encourage lurkers and railbirds to participate in 2013, it gives you something (else) to look forward to on Fridays!
it ain't quite over, but this is probably pretty close to how it will finish? Some very interesting picks, my own was admitttedly a high beta speculative stock that is going to move on essentially binary events from clinical trials, FDA decisions, and partnership news, I figured it was either going to double or drop 50% this year, it did well the first quarter (didn't everything!?!) but then stalled badly the rest of the year (let's blame the market makers manipulation conspiracy ) I still like the pick and added to my modest position this summer after taking some profits in FEB
Goodonya to everyone who is in the black, especially if you beat the dart throws, and I'll be rootin' for you Cohodk and TwinTurbo (last is good, right?)
- I was doing great the last few weeks, and then two of my picks decide to get taken to the cleaners. One down 10%+ this week, the other down 20%+ TODAY! - Next time I go to a casino and hit blackjack, I'm going to yell "OPA"!!! - two-thirds of the standings were shaken up this week - We only have one more week before the next one starts!
since I'm currently shorting my pick, position #26 next week would be a nice Christmas present. FWIW I'm sticking with silver next contest.
Wings, when do we start PMing our picks for 2013? I'm sure we'll have a lot more players so you might consider stricter selection guidelines to make your updates more manageable. I suggest picks that are only listed on the major exchanges and a limit on the number of picks.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Actually not a bad job by the board as a whole. The US ( S&P) was the worst performing market of the top 25 bourses in the world in 2012.
Fantastic job Mark.
MJ
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Comments
<< <i>So what are the odds of three consecutive portfolios ending in xx64? >>
about as good as me winning this thing.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
I knew it would happen.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Commodity prices as of 2:00 pm ET or so.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Grr zrlevin bumped me. >>
I'll be coming after you next.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Wingsrule, are you willing to keep track again? This thread would have been stillborn without your contributions!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Doesn't look like I'm going to catch up this year though.
<< <i>Old and new participants, start thinking about your 2013 entries, at this time the group had 15 separate investment ideas that have outperformed silver (the best performing PM) so far this year. This includes the ever popular MILK, proving that anything is indeed possible
Wingsrule, are you willing to keep track again? This thread would have been stillborn without your contributions! >>
Milk outperforming silver? I thought there was no inflation.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Only if you don't eat, heat your house or drive anywhere.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Milk outperforming silver? I thought there was no inflation.
Only if you don't eat, heat your house or drive anywhere. >>
If there's general price inflation, everything should go up and stay up, shouldn't it? Seasonal, situational, supply/demand and market preference changes, and other cyclical fluctuations do not necessarily indicate monetary inflation driving prices?
I don't know the sources, but it would be great to update the charts in this thread:
Link to Cohodk commodity price trend threads
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
If you set the rules you can make your own numbers up.
<< <i>
<< <i>Milk outperforming silver? I thought there was no inflation.
Only if you don't eat, heat your house or drive anywhere. >>
If there's general price inflation, everything should go up and stay up, shouldn't it? Seasonal, situational, supply/demand and market preference changes, and other cyclical fluctuations do not necessarily indicate monetary inflation driving prices?
I don't know the sources, but it would be great to update the charts in this thread:
Link to Cohodk commodity price trend threads >>
So far, the big corporations that supply most consumer goods have eaten a lot of the price increases. They can do this because the FED/Treasury has skewed interest rates and
the cost of capital. Once the cost of capital starts to reflect the consistently rising M2 (7-10% yoy for the past 17 yrs), then costs will have to be passed on to consumers. Despite
the Fedanigans, plenty of items have still risen in price. The economy will continue to show both price inflation (things we need or are in fairly short supply) and
deflation (things we don't need or are plentiful) for the foreseeable future. For steady price inflation one only has to look at health care where I've seen a steady 10% per year increase
in my rates for the past 3 yrs. Personally, my cost of living has increased each year due to food, insurance, health care, energy, professional services and skilled labor, home
improvement supplies, taxes, and fees. Can't thing of any professional labor services I've used in the past few years that has gone down (ie not lawyers, not plumbers, not electricians,
not well drillers, not roofers, not burner techs, not auto mechanics, not tree removers, etc.).
<< <i>Cohodk's investment is an interesting lesson on options -- it was a great idea, but the timing didn't quite work out! >>
Indeed. Right about "fundamentals" and still lose money. Interesting indeed.
I wish I could roll my options out just one more month.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Cohodk's investment is an interesting lesson on options -- it was a great idea, but the timing didn't quite work out! >>
Indeed. Right about "fundamentals" and still lose money. Interesting indeed.
I wish I could roll my options out just one more month.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Cohodk's investment is an interesting lesson on options -- it was a great idea, but the timing didn't quite work out! >>
Indeed. Right about "fundamentals" and still lose money. Interesting indeed.
I wish I could roll my options out just one more month. >>
It reminds me of something I told my young nephew after he bought his first options. I asked him his reason for taking a certain position, and he said something about PE ratio. I scolded him, that is a good road to the poor house, buying options based on PE ratio. It is not that Cohodk needs this kind of story, but there are a lot of total option novices reading along.
Another quick tip, is that the delta of an option is also the approximate odds of making money if held to expiration. So an option with a delta of .50 (moves 50 cents for a dollar move in the underlying) has about a 50/50 chance of making or losing money if held to expiration. At the money options tend to have deltas near 50. Out of the money options tend to have smaller deltas and smaller chances of making money if held to expiration. My young nephew bought "long shot options," with a delta of about .07 (the option moves 7 cents for a dollar move in the underlying), so he had about a 7% chance of making money. He didn't realize the poor odds. He focused on the dream of that long shot coming in and the huge money that he would make. Of course, over the course of time, only a few long shots come in, that's why they are long shots.
For the most part, the option odds-makers get it very close. Just like the bookies that make NFL game lines, over time, over averages, the point spreads tend to get it very close, the pro option players are extremely sophisticated and do not give away money.
You'll excuse me for being a bit sparse on the boards; tweaked my shoulder from all of the patting on the back I've been doing for picking a stock that lost a remarkable 93% this year. Now that is tough to beat.
great points, RedTiger - and the analogy of options MMs as bookies nails it.
<< <i>Hey Wings, if I give you $13 will you bump me above zrlevin. HA >>
Yeah right. Citi's up 4% this week!
THAT was funny!
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough?
<< <i>Strikes me as kinda ..well...how do I say this politely....funny..... that the 'pro' investment traders who like options have finished way back in the pack.
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough?
Your comments are out of line, way out of line. Overall your attitude makes serious people much less likely to contribute. Just because you had some luck in this year's contest, it means near nothing, except bragging rights over some beers. Like I said early in the thread, serious investors and traders tend not to spend much time or energy on contests, because they are for the most part a total waste of time and energy. It speaks poorly to the seriousness of those here, that they are so focused on a contest thread. Serious people tend to spend their time on their real money accounts. There is so much luck involved in a contest like this it is near pointless. Besides, as an options trader my time horizon is focused on one to two months, not a year.
Does anyone that has visited my blog, believe that I couldn't put on some head-spinning exotic option trade for some contest? What would be the point of that? Fewer than 1% of investors have an in-depth knowledge of options. With options just about any possible outcome can be drawn up, it is all about the odds. Want a 100x winner? Sure, but it will have about a 1% chance of cashing the ticket. Would anyone learn a lesson if I drew up a 100x winner and rolled 00 to cash the ticket? Not a wit, except to take reckless long shot chances at the craps table. Want a much more likely 10% gain for the year, ok, 90% of the time it will work out that way.
I hope a few people looked at my picks and noted the extreme rock solid steadiness of their performance. The permanent portfolio is a time tested, low volatility model that has had a very good run. It may not work in the future, however, plenty of people here could take a lesson from that, than from any head spinner option position, that virtually no one could understand, or could try and emulate in their own accounts. There is a LOT of sage advice in my three picks BND, VTI, GLD. Those that can not see it and choose to criticize, again, are out of line, way out of line.
Want to win a contest? Pick some penny stock, or a high volatility stock, or throw a single dart, or pick some leveraged product. There done. Want to make real money in a real market consistently with a good risk to reward profile, that's a different cup of tea.
<< <i>Strikes me as kinda ..well...how do I say this politely....funny..... that the 'pro' investment traders who like options have finished way back in the pack.
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough?
I know I'm just wasting my breath but my options did trade at 27 dollars for a gain of 60 percent. And the underlying stock that I thought was going to fall did indeed drop over 30 percent.
But what do I know?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
HE>I
I do note that the average percentage gain of the top 3 do not outweigh the average percentage loss of the bottom 3, so leverage does have its pitfalls.
My contest was vs. the market and the market averages, and I only regret that I wasn't smart enough to beat Dart Throw #1 and Dart Throw #2.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Strikes me as kinda ..well...how do I say this politely....funny..... that the 'pro' investment traders who like options have finished way back in the pack.
And i would hope that some of the roaring brains who like to pontificate in this thread would join it next year as opposed to sitting on the sidelines and ...well...not offering their braniac picks just their sage advice, ----was that polite enough?
Your comments are out of line, way out of line. Overall your attitude makes serious people much less likely to contribute. Just because you had some luck in this year's contest, it means near nothing, except bragging rights over some beers. Like I said early in the thread, serious investors and traders tend not to spend much time or energy on contests, because they are for the most part a total waste of time and energy. It speaks poorly to the seriousness of those here, that they are so focused on a contest thread. Serious people tend to spend their time on their real money accounts. There is so much luck involved in a contest like this it is near pointless. Besides, as an options trader my time horizon is focused on one to two months, not a year.
Does anyone that has visited my blog, believe that I couldn't put on some head-spinning exotic option trade for some contest? What would be the point of that? Fewer than 1% of investors have an in-depth knowledge of options. With options just about any possible outcome can be drawn up, it is all about the odds. Want a 100x winner? Sure, but it will have about a 1% chance of cashing the ticket. Would anyone learn a lesson if I drew up a 100x winner and rolled 00 to cash the ticket? Not a wit, except to take reckless long shot chances at the craps table. Want a much more likely 10% gain for the year, ok, 90% of the time it will work out that way.
I hope a few people looked at my picks and noted the extreme rock solid steadiness of their performance. The permanent portfolio is a time tested, low volatility model that has had a very good run. It may not work in the future, however, plenty of people here could take a lesson from that, than from any head spinner option position, that virtually no one could understand, or could try and emulate in their own accounts. There is a LOT of sage advice in my three picks BND, VTI, GLD. Those that can not see it and choose to criticize, again, are out of line, way out of line.
Want to win a contest? Pick some penny stock, or a high volatility stock, or throw a single dart, or pick some leveraged product. There done. Want to make real money in a real market consistently with a good risk to reward profile, that's a different cup of tea. >>
Sorry you feel that way Redtiger. I do not brag and I would hope that people who have opinions on this little ditty would venture their opinions in 2013. I just got lucky with one pick. I do not make a living any longer giving investment advice but did for 20 years when I was selling retail commercial property for Grubb & Ellis. Best to you.
<< <i>
<< <i>Hey Wings, if I give you $13 will you bump me above zrlevin. HA >>
Yeah right. Citi's up 4% this week! >>
Thank God...I don't own any of my "wonderful" picks, but I do own C. Keep on movin
it ain't quite over, but this is probably pretty close to how it will finish? Some very interesting picks, my own was admitttedly a high beta speculative stock that is going to move on essentially binary events from clinical trials, FDA decisions, and partnership news, I figured it was either going to double or drop 50% this year, it did well the first quarter (didn't everything!?!) but then stalled badly the rest of the year (let's blame the market makers manipulation conspiracy
Goodonya to everyone who is in the black, especially if you beat the dart throws, and I'll be rootin' for you Cohodk and TwinTurbo (last is good, right?)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
- I was doing great the last few weeks, and then two of my picks decide to get taken to the cleaners. One down 10%+ this week, the other down 20%+ TODAY!
- Next time I go to a casino and hit blackjack, I'm going to yell "OPA"!!!
- two-thirds of the standings were shaken up this week
- We only have one more week before the next one starts!
Wings, when do we start PMing our picks for 2013? I'm sure we'll have a lot more players so you might consider stricter selection guidelines to make your updates more manageable. I suggest picks that are only listed on the major exchanges and a limit on the number of picks.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Stupid oil! I think for next year I'll just punch in what my current actual investment %ages are and see how they do.
Fantastic job Mark.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......