$50 Silver By April 26th 2011? POLL

Coins101 · April 24, 2011 11:38AM

<< Will the flap of a butterfly's wings in the rainforest of Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?

Isn't there a model for that too?

>>

Depends if you are passing gas at the time!

coinguy489 · April 24, 2011 12:11PM

i think it will

renman95 · April 24, 2011 12:55PM

<< Will the flap of a butterfly's wings in the rainforest of Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?

Isn't there a model for that too?

>>

No, but there's an app for that.

renman95 · April 24, 2011 1:04PM

<< Yes, IF Saudia Arabia's Day of Rage, March 11, escalates "democracy" in the Middle East and Dear Leader continues to tiptoe without cajones. Plus sustained gasoline over $4 inching toward $5, drilling moratorium, no compromise in Congress in two weeks. You know, the usual continuance of Administrative buffoonery.

I would suspect that would get even the sheeple on the Capitol's lawn with pitchforks. >>

They've added a third war, new dollar lows, budgetry shenanigans... We are within a whisker or two of that $50 milestone.

Frankly, I don't know how much more the sheeple can tolerate? Are they this clueless? Just baffled by all this.

gecko109 · April 24, 2011 1:05PM

When this poll was started, I thought the chance of silver hitting $50 by April 26th was so far fetched.....so remote.....that I didnt even respond. Im simply amazed that there is not only the possibility, but actually a strong probability that this mark will be hit now!

OnlyGoldIsMoney · April 24, 2011 1:14PM

I did not notice this poll in March. Back then if I had voted the response would have been a resounding "NO". Now as silver flirts with $48 the date seems prescient.

fastrudy · April 24, 2011 10:51PM

Gecko & OGIM:

How can you say that without a model? BigRick's model predicts less than 1% chance of silver hitting $50. His model is approaching an infinite number of trials (albeit slowly), trust the mathematical model, not your gut feeling. It can definitely predict the probability of a future price.

Drink his kool-aid! He probably can determine the probability of gold being $2000 on Oct 23, 2017.

BigRick · April 24, 2011 10:54PM

(May) Silver just hit 48.25

Prob. of hitting $50 approx 4.5%

fyi: the May 50 calls are currently bidding a grand & hit a high of 4 grand overnight!

"...He probably can determine the probability of gold being $2000 on Oct 23, 2017..."

Not precisely

BUT

for 10/23 - 181 days - (using the Dec. Futures as the underlying):

Prob. of hitting $2,000 .19%

Prob. of closing above $2,000 .10%

Edit to update w/out a bump: Silver now down over $3 from its overnight high (46.75 vs. 49.82).

greghansen · April 25, 2011 12:10AM

Congrats to BigRick on posting a prescient poll on the $50 target on March 7!!! The no votes still are the favorites...but they were sweating bullets overnight. An amazing run for silver so far. I'm too chicken to chase it.

BTW: although I didn't pay any attention to this poll until the past few days, I will admit that had I voted on March 7th, my vote would have been not only No, but He** NO!

Coins101 · April 25, 2011 12:26AM

I voted "YES" when this first came out and I was smiling last night!!!

We'll see what happens in the next day or two.

cladking · April 25, 2011 9:19AM

My estimation of it hitting $50 in time is up to about 2%.

goingbroke · April 25, 2011 9:31AM

I am thinking $51.00 a ounce within 20 days!

Coins101 · April 25, 2011 9:53AM

It sure would be interesting to know what was going on last night.

goingbroke · April 25, 2011 10:01AM

Nymex Silver Warehouse Data showed that 25% of Scotia Mocatta’s stored silver reclassified to eligible from
registered status. That is about 5,287,142 ounces that is no longer deliverable against the contract.

OPA · April 25, 2011 10:56PM

Very unlikely for silver to hit $50 today.... The No's should win.

Coins101 · April 26, 2011 12:02AM

<< Very unlikely for silver to hit $50 today.... The No's should win. >>

Yes, it would appear so but the run Sunday night almost made it - within pennies. To bad we weren't playing horses shoes.

agentjim007 · April 26, 2011 12:06AM

I think silver is about to drop like a rock, only based on my past luck. I bought 2 ATB sets knowing I have to sell one. I will probably not get it until silver bites the dust if my past luck is any indication.

cladking · April 26, 2011 12:37AM

<< Very unlikely for silver to hit $50 today.... The No's should win. >>

Anything that can drop a few dollars a minute can gain afew dollars a minute and
this goes double if the trend is higher. It's only off a couple dollars so might be $50
by the time I hit enter.

The resistance at $50 is only phychological. With real resiostance it takes days or
even weeks for all the sellers to physically unload their holdings. But people get used
to new concepts like $50 silver much more quickly than they can sell their possessions
and, much more importantly, getting used to a new price level doesn't add metal to a
market that has to find new owners or stronger hands.

Silver will go up as soon as conditions favor it again and conditions favor it right now
since the dollar is down.

OPA · April 26, 2011 10:54PM

<< Silver will go up as soon as conditions favor it again and conditions favor it right now since the dollar is down. >>

The "Nay's" (75%) won this round. It's unlikely that silver will hit $50 in April ... maybe in May?

PerryHall · April 26, 2011 11:10PM

<< 

<< Silver will go up as soon as conditions favor it again and conditions favor it right now since the dollar is down. >>

The "Nay's" (75%) won this round. It's unlikely that silver will hit $50 in April ... maybe in May? >>

It sure got close though.

JCMhouston · April 26, 2011 11:33PM

<< It sure got close though >>

Close only counts when playing horseshoes or hand grenades.

Just keep in mind that the 75% of us that were right really have no idea what the price is going to do for any given period of time (it could just as easily have gone to $55 during this period). Unless you are on the inside with The Bernank and his merry band of Banksters you can't have any idea what is going to happen during a specific time period. Educated guesses are important, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking we really know what is going to happen.

Coins101 · April 27, 2011 12:06AM

But I bet the "No" votes didn't even think it would get as close as it did. By the way, close also works with shotguns!

OPA · April 27, 2011 8:23AM

<< But I bet the "No" votes didn't even think it would get as close as it did. By the way, close also works with shotguns! >>

You're correct MonSewer....Not in my wildest dreams. I'm hoping that I can loose my bet with derryb sooner than later. BTW close also works with large Comets or Asteroids

nccoin · April 27, 2011 8:30AM

tommorrow is the day.

Coins101 · April 27, 2011 9:02AM

<< 

<< But I bet the "No" votes didn't even think it would get as close as it did. By the way, close also works with shotguns! >>

You're correct MonSewer....Not in my wildest dreams. I'm hoping that I can loose my bet with derryb sooner than later. BTW close also works with large Comets or Asteroids

>>

Don't forget Nukes!

derryb · April 27, 2011 10:01AM

<< 

<< But I bet the "No" votes didn't even think it would get as close as it did. By the way, close also works with shotguns! >>

You're correct MonSewer....Not in my wildest dreams. I'm hoping that I can loose my bet with derryb sooner than later. BTW close also works with large Comets or Asteroids

>>

Came close last week, now I think it may take a while. I think we may see sideways for a while.

goingbroke · April 27, 2011 10:43AM

<< 

<< 

<< But I bet the "No" votes didn't even think it would get as close as it did. By the way, close also works with shotguns! >>

You're correct MonSewer....Not in my wildest dreams. I'm hoping that I can loose my bet with derryb sooner than later. BTW close also works with large Comets or Asteroids

>>

Came close last week, now I think it may take a while. I think we may see sideways for a while. >>

Yea, like 1-2 more days!

Coins101 · April 27, 2011 10:58AM

Hey, if we get a little action like last Sunday night, we may be there tonight. $48.25 as I type.

OPA · April 29, 2011 4:02AM

Fat Lady ain't gonna sing this month...maybe next month.

OPA · May 4, 2011 2:44AM

<< 

<< 

<< But I bet the "No" votes didn't even think it would get as close as it did. By the way, close also works with shotguns! >>

You're correct MonSewer....Not in my wildest dreams. I'm hoping that I can loose my bet with derryb sooner than later. BTW close also works with large Comets or Asteroids

>>

Came close last week, now I think it may take a while. I think we may see sideways for a while. >>

It's obvious, you and I did not anticipate such a quick drop so soon after all the jubilation? I'm beginning to think that $50 silver for 2011 is down to a 50% chance of occurrence.

Coins101 · May 4, 2011 3:34AM

With what has happened in the last couple weeks, who know!!

Everything is bleeding this week.

pmac · May 4, 2011 5:43AM

Do you suppose everyone thought that everyone was going to sell at $50 and wanted to beat that bunch to sell? $50 did seem like an artificial peak. Now everyone is trying to cut their loses. It'll come back.

OPA · June 2, 2011 5:27AM

<< I voted no. I will also go as far to say that Silver will NOT hit $50 in 2011. This is just a gut feeling prediction.

>>

Furthermore, I have my doubts that gold will hit $1600 this year. I'll go with JPM prediction of $1575 for a high late this year.

goingbroke · June 2, 2011 8:11PM

Lift your eyes and listen. Don't miss this. If the present European financial crisis sneaks out from the pen the Nice Government Men presently have it trapped in, then silver will lose badly against gold. and this correction business will drag out a long time. If the NGM and their running dogs do their job and keep the panic penned up, then the gold/silver ratio will bottom sometime by end July, probably end-June. Thus the worse the crisis gets, the further silver will drop

RedneckHB · July 7, 2020 3:38PM

OPA...did you and derryb ever square up on your wager? See first page of this thread.

Coming up on a decade now...

blitzdude · July 7, 2020 3:56PM

@cohodk said:
OPA...did you and derryb ever square up on your wager? See first page of this thread.

Coming up on a decade now...
@derryb said:
Came close last week, now I think it may take a while. I think we may see sideways for a while.

Sideways for awhile? Understatement of the decade.

MsMorrisine · July 7, 2020 5:40PM

@derryb said:
<<

<< A bit too early. Will do so by July 1. >>

Would you care to wager a 1 oz silver bar on that statement? >>

Bet ya a silver maple against your silver bar that by midnight July 1, 2011 silver will have hit $50 an ounce. If it hits before July 1, PM for mailing instructions. If it hasn't hit by July 1 PM me your mailing address and remind me of the wager. Deal?

taxmad · July 7, 2020 5:44PM

@MsMorrisine said:

@derryb said:
<<

<< A bit too early. Will do so by July 1. >>

Would you care to wager a 1 oz silver bar on that statement? >>

Bet ya a silver maple against your silver bar that by midnight July 1, 2011 silver will have hit $50 an ounce. If it hits before July 1, PM for mailing instructions. If it hasn't hit by July 1 PM me your mailing address and remind me of the wager. Deal?

Spot or futures market?

$50 Silver By April 26th 2011? POLL

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