$50 Silver By April 26th 2011? POLL

BigRick

Yes or No.

AS of 3/8/11 7:28AM CST:

Current Poll Probability of it hitting 50 (18 out of 93): 19.35%

Current Actual Probability of it hitting 50: .66%

Current Actual Probability of CLOSING ABOVE 50: .28%

2 Std Up 45.645 - 3 Std Up 51.479

gsa1fan

no way

JoesMaName

sure hope not, though $36 seems little more than a speed bump on the way to it.

OPA

Another Pipedream? Very unlikely

gsa1fan

BTW, what 4-26 date have to do with anything

pitboss

Maybe $45

BBN

Maybe 1/1/12, but I expect a small correction soon. Silver skyrocketed lately. It should slow down some soon. I could be wrong.

DoubleEagle59

no

BigRick

"...BTW, what 4-26 date have to do with anything...

It's the expiration date of the SI May '11 Options.

reddwing

Maybe 39.80

Coins101

At the rate silver is climbing, there is a chance of hitting $50 an oz this year but I don't think by the date you picked. It wouldn't surprise be it is in the mid $40's somewhere though by that date.

BigRick

There's currently a 2.03% chance it hits 50 by that date. 2 standard deviations up would be 47.487 by 4/26 & 3 standard deviations up would be 54.209 by 4/26.

It's interesting that the Poll (currently 5 Yes, 24 No) currently shows a 17.2414% chance.

For those that said yes, wanna buy some May 50 Calls?

konsole

I would bet silver will be no higher then it is now.

mkman123

I picked yes.....anything is possible!!! When it was at 25, many said, no way it won't hit 30. Then when 30 arrived, many said no way it won't hit 35.

1jester

Silver has rocketed up despite this blatant escalation in manipulation. What's going to keep silver down once people begin to understand what has been keeping it so low?

OPA

<< <i>What's going to keep silver down once people begin to understand what has been keeping it so low? >>



Supply & Demand. Demand for the ASE's has already decreased by 50% in Feb over January's due to the high cost. I suspect, if silver hits $40 or more, ( & there is no sure bet it will) the smelters will be working overtime to get it refined creating a surplus, speculators will cash in their gains, bottom line: Demand will decrease creating an oversupply & drop in price. That's the way I see it.

PinkFloyd

50% decrease from January, but still a 58% increase over last February, if I'm reading things right.

EDIT: I don't think we'll hit $50 on April 26. Somewhere in the 40s, maybe.

Coins101

"For the year to date, Silver Eagle bullion coin sales have now reached 9,662,000. By comparison, during the first two months of 2010, the US Mint had recorded sales of 5,642,500. "

So, it appears they have set a new recorded sales figure, beating the old recorded sales in 2010 figure by almost 2 to 1 even if February was down from January, 2011. Anyone have the production figures for Jan, 2010 and Feb, 2010 to see if the trend was the same?

57loaded

no, no, no

and i am not in Chicago

291fifth

Are the shoeshine boys talking up silver?

Have the "right" people gotten their money out of the silver market yet?

There is no top ... there is no top ... there is no top ...

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain ...

OPA

<< <i>"For the year to date, Silver Eagle bullion coin sales have now reached 9,662,000. By comparison, during the first two months of 2010, the US Mint had recorded sales of 5,642,500. "

So, it appears they have set a new recorded sales figure, beating the old recorded sales in 2010 figure by almost 2 to 1 even if February was down from January, 2011. Anyone have the production figures for Jan, 2010 and Feb, 2010 to see if the trend was the same? >>



You only copied a portion of the quote: Here is the beginning.

During February 2011, the US Mint recorded sales of 3,240,000 of the one ounce bullion Silver Eagles. This is down nearly 50% from the record 6,422,000 ounces sold during January.

renman95

Yes, IF Saudia Arabia's Day of Rage, March 11, escalates "democracy" in the Middle East and Dear Leader continues to tiptoe without cajones. Plus sustained gasoline over $4 inching toward $5, drilling moratorium, no compromise in Congress in two weeks. You know, the usual continuance of Administrative buffoonery.

I would suspect that would get even the sheeple on the Capitol's lawn with pitchforks.

Coins101

<< <i>

<< <i>"For the year to date, Silver Eagle bullion coin sales have now reached 9,662,000. By comparison, during the first two months of 2010, the US Mint had recorded sales of 5,642,500. "

So, it appears they have set a new recorded sales figure, beating the old recorded sales in 2010 figure by almost 2 to 1 even if February was down from January, 2011. Anyone have the production figures for Jan, 2010 and Feb, 2010 to see if the trend was the same? >>



You only copied a portion of the quote: Here is the beginning.

During February 2011, the US Mint recorded sales of 3,240,000 of the one ounce bullion Silver Eagles. This is down nearly 50% from the record 6,422,000 ounces sold during January. >>



So???? The sales are still almost 2 to 1 compared to 2010. However, that is why I asked for the recorded sales for Jan 2010 and the recorded sales for Feb 2010 to make a real comparison. Did the sales also drop off also in Feb 2010 (mint sold 500 oz???) compared to Jan 2010 (when they sold 5,642,000 oz???)?

Will there be a jump in silver purchases in March and early April because everyone is getting their tax refund and then a drop in mid-April because some of us have to pay?

The comparison of Jan 2011 and Feb 2011 is meaningless unless you can see the same data for Jan 2010 and Feb 2010. There may have been a similar drop. However, the fat remains the mint sold a heck of a lot more in the first two months of 2011 compared to the same time period in 2010 even though the price was a lot lower.

OPA

<< <i>"For the year to date, Silver Eagle bullion coin sales have now reached 9,662,000. By comparison, during the first two months of 2010, the US Mint had recorded sales of 5,642,500. "

So, it appears they have set a new recorded sales figure, beating the old recorded sales in 2010 figure by almost 2 to 1 even if February was down from January, 2011. Anyone have the production figures for Jan, 2010 and Feb, 2010 to see if the trend was the same? >>



That info is readily available to anyone on the Mint's web site..BTW FYI .. a similar, but not as great, declined happened in 2010



ASE Sales 2010

Coins101

OPA,

Thanks for the link. Looks like it dropped about 43% less sales in Feb 2010 compared to sales in Jan 2010. Actually rather close to what we have just seen, about a 44% less sales in Feb 2011 compared to Jan 2011. Funny thing is sales picked back up in March, 2010 and then dropped in April 2010. I wonder if we will see that happen again in 2011 (as I said above).

Thanks again.

OPA

<< <i>OPA,

Thanks for the link. Looks like it dropped about 43% less sales in Feb 2010 compared to sales in Jan 2010. Actually rather close to what we have just seen, about a 44% less sales in Feb 2011 compared to Jan 2011. Funny thing is sales picked back up in March, 2010 and then dropped in April 2010. I wonder if we will see that happen again in 2011 (as I said above).

Thanks again. >>



We should know by next week when the weekly sales figures come out, but my gut feeling tells me, it will reflect softer sales.

watercrest

Seems like the current economic conditions have been pushing silver up the roof

OPA

<< <i>Seems like the current economic conditions have been pushing silver up the roof >>



That's where I disagree....It's fear & greed driven speculation & nothing else in my book.

BigRick

3/18 Update:

POLL prob of hitting 50: 21.9048% (23Y/82N)

Actual Prob of finishing above 50: 0.59%

Actual Prob of hitting 50: 0.24%

Std Dev's: +2=45.038 / +3=51.218

ttown

It looks like to me silver is still very strong. I'm not sure that comparing Jan 2011 to Feb 2011 is a valid comparison since there was noted silver shortages toward the end of Feb and I'm sure it didn't happen overnight. I'd expect March to be even worse in sales because unlike a fiat currency there a infinite supply of PM's that's why they hold there values. It doesn't matter how many trillions want in on the action it just causes prices to rise. Paper silver is where you can play the fiat type games of the casino.

derryb

A bit too early. Will do so by July 1.

OPA

<< <i>A bit too early. Will do so by July 1. >>



Would you care to wager a 1 oz silver bar on that statement?

cohodk

???????????????????????????

sebrown

I'd say we have a much better chance of hitting $25 by April 26th than $50. That chart is looking scary!

derryb

<< <i>

<< <i>A bit too early. Will do so by July 1. >>



Would you care to wager a 1 oz silver bar on that statement? >>


Bet ya a silver maple against your silver bar that by midnight July 1, 2011 silver will have hit $50 an ounce. If it hits before July 1, PM for mailing instructions. If it hasn't hit by July 1 PM me your mailing address and remind me of the wager. Deal?

OPA

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>A bit too early. Will do so by July 1. >>



Would you care to wager a 1 oz silver bar on that statement? >>


Bet ya a silver maple against your silver bar that by midnight July 1, 2011 silver will have hit $50 an ounce. If it hits before July 1, PM for mailing instructions. If it hasn't hit by July 1 PM me your mailing address and remind me of the wager. Deal? >>



You're on....What would you prefer... 1 oz 2011 kookaburra or 1 oz scottsdale bar..the choice is yours.

roadrunner

That silver chart would look a lot less "frightening" if drawn since 1970 (ie showing the $50 1980 non-inflation adjusted peak). And if drawn in inflation adjusted terms, it looks far less
menacing. Silver is still trying to complete a 50-55 yr run that began in the early 1960's. It's merely a reflection of currency abuse.

The oil chart if updated for today shows a steady parabolic trend since 1990. Yeah, the crash of 2008 wiped commodities out across the board. But guess what? They're back again, and in most all cases, higher than ever. Oil has actually lagged, but at $100/gall, it fits nicely on that chart, effectively nullifying the dip in 2008. In fact, one can erase 2008 off all those commodity charts and you'll find that the ascent has been pretty stready all along. It's all about perspectives. And until currencies get "fixed," the current perspectives will remain intact. The 2008 event was more of a fluke that scared the sheeple silly. They allowed the PTB to rake in the dough on that crash. You can be sure that besides the doubling up silver otc derivatives in June-July 2008, that similar machinations were performed on oil as well to destroy the price. Returning to $35 oil was about as absurd as being at $145 oil in 2008. Would not be surprised at all to see $150-$200 oil sometime in 2011. What was once considered "absurd" by early 2008 (ie silver at $21, gold at $1033, or oil at $145), eventually becomes base support. Silver could indeed see a massive dump back down to the $21 support level. But it will still be on track per the 10 yr chart. Of course unlike gold, there is serious concern as to a possible shortage of physical silver vs. performing paper contracts. That's the 800# advantage. Paper silver could indeed drop to $21. But good luck getting physical silver under $25-$26/oz should that occur.

roadrunner

BigRick

"...I'd say we have a much better chance of hitting $25 by April 26th than $50..."

Better? Yes. MUCH better? No.

fyi:

Prob of Hitting 25: 0.79%

Prob of Finishing below 25: 0.46%

-2 Std Dev 26.995
-3 Std Dev 23.828

Justacommeman

On the daily chart silver is a buy. A pullback to the 20dma in an uptrend is one of my favorite plays. As for $50 silver by April 26 there will need to be a black swan like event for that to happen. They are a lot of swan like looking things lurking about so never say never. A swan coated in middle eastern oil perhaps. I still voted no. MJ

jmski52

The spread of opinion in this thread is indicative of the volatility that you should be expecting from silver in the next year or two. The trend is still up, and you would have to convince me of a fundamental change in how things are being done to convince me otherwise.

Baley

I voted, "not a chance in hell" when this poll started, but due to recent events, as well of reports of increasing public "herd silver is going up so buying some", changing vote to "probably not"

BigRick

AS of 3/26/11 9:24AM CST:

Current Poll Probability of it hitting 50 (29 out of 106): 21.48148%

Current Actual Probability of it hitting 50: .55%

Current Actual Probability of CLOSING ABOVE 50: .23%

2 Std Up 45.75 - 3 Std Up 50.942

BigRick

Update 4/3/11 7:49a CST:

Poll prob: 20.8633% (29N/109Y)

Actual Prob of HITTING 50: .02%

Actual Prob of Closing ABOVE 50: .01%

cladking

<< <i>Update 4/3/11 7:49a CST:

Poll prob: 20.8633% (29N/109Y)

Actual Prob of HITTING 50: .02%

Actual Prob of Closing ABOVE 50: .01% >>




Someday silver will spike higher and retain most of those gains. It will be a very dramatic spike.

What it's done so far since 2002 is just a garden variety bull market. It's a very strong bull but
not the sort that I'm speaking of. It's likely that the spike will come when prices are already mov-
ing up for some other reason .

The chances of it happening in the next three weeks are surely a little higher than 1%. Of course
it would take out $100 as well if it comes early enough.

Coins101

I think as we get closer to the 26th and considering the up-swing dynamics have changed for silver since the date of the OP and more people are now voting "no", the "Probability" of it hitting $50 will continue to go down.

Interesting thread though.

CaptHenway

$50 Silver by St. Swithin's Day!!!!!!!

OPA

<< <i>$50 Silver by St. Swithin's Day!!!!!!!

>>



You did fairly well on last years Gold call by St. Swithin's Day...only off by a couple of month. Your Silver call is now plausible, but still a long shot.

Bear

The higher it rises, the greater the fall.

Coins101

<< <i>The higher it rises, the greater the fall. >>



Didn't you sell all your silver? Did you do a Yogi or a BooBoo, bear?

CaptHenway

<< <i>The higher it rises, the greater the fall. >>



I wouldn't be surprised in we get a pullback tomorrow after hitting the $1450 mark in gold, but I ain't selling.

TD

Coins101

That was my opinion on the other thread. I believe we will see a small selloff driving prices down a bit but what get on the street will be gobbled up and we will be off and running again.