PMs, Hard Assets, and the economic collapse
percyb
Posts: 3,308 ✭✭✭✭
Am I reading the tea leaves correctly? Is the economy now collapsing and the masses aren't yet completely convinced?
Hard Assets--tradable items and PMs should just keep escalating now, no?
Hard Assets--tradable items and PMs should just keep escalating now, no?
"Poets are the unacknowledged legislators of the world." PBShelley
0
Comments
If it is, you wouldn't know it looking at the Dow and the shopping malls......
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Percy, we are in the precursor to entire, complete monetary collapse. The only thing to really debate is not IF, but WHEN the collapse will occur. Call me a pesimist, but I think somewhere around 2015-2018 as the time of total collapse. May come even sooner if congress decides to bail out failing states, OR the world adopts a new world reserve currency. You would be very wise to begin dumping any dollars you hold now for tangible assets, whether that be gold, silver, or something else. >>
Right on. This is all correct, but who can say on the timeframe. I think if you can smell it, we might be at the doorstep. Or maybe not.
Free Trial
<< <i>If it is, you wouldn't know it looking at the Dow and the shopping malls...... >>
very succint
PS percyb (yes)
<< <i>Am I reading the tea leaves correctly? Is the economy now collapsing and the masses aren't yet completely convinced?
Hard Assets--tradable items and PMs should just keep escalating now, no? >>
You better check out those "leaves." You are either having a nightmare or a mega case of hallucination.
Time for a reality check. Just remember, like the song says, "what goes up, must come down."
Unfortunately none of the major problems that caused the 2008 crash have been fixed. There's not even a workable solution on the table. The plan so far seems to be kick the can further down the road until the next guy's term starts. With Fannie, Freddie, and OTC Derivatives the solution has been to sweep it under the rug for now. Things will come to a head in the 2012-2014 period as a number of long term economic cycles all bottom together. The last such period was 1892-1894. But it doesn't mean that things will become all rosy in 2015 either. It will take time to undo 100 yrs of financial and economic stupidity. Like the alchemists of old that tried to turn base metals into gold, our modern day bankers tried to turn fiat money into gold....with the same result.
roadrunner
SO I need to cash out my 401k while the market's up and buy metal?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
I would strongly recommend against that.
<< <i>SO I need to cash out my 401k while the market's up and buy metal? >>
An alternative is to properly diversify one's 401k into commodities, metals, and other tangible goods businesses. Less paper more goods.
roadrunner
Personally...I dont believe any of the extremist views. Im not converting my plumbing back to copper piping just yet.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
<< <i>SO I need to cash out my 401k while the market's up and buy metal?
I would strongly recommend against that. >>
I was joking. Although some members here did just that and have not looked back. I, for one, don't have the big ones to do it and would be dumb to do it with metals at all time highs.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>I dont believe any of the extremist views. >>
Well, that makes 2 of us.
I'm glad to hear you were joking, but I'm going to perseverate on this a bit because it's so massively ill-advised, in case anyone reading this has doubts.
Cashing out a 401(k) to invest in something different is apallingly tax-inefficient. 10% penalty for early withdrawal, 30-40% automatic withholding for taxes, they're looking at a 50% haircut before they even start. So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
Say it did better than double when they go to sell 15-20y from now. Let's even say it beat the long-term market average return for whatever asset classes they were holding in their 401(k). What's the cap gain rate on "collectibles" vs. that of marginal income, which is what the 401(k) funds would be taxed at when withdrawn? Probably higher. So even if someone "wins", they still lose- to Uncle Sam, bigtime.
/soapbox
<< <i>Yah, the sky is definitely falling... look, a piece just landed outside my office window, out of the clear, sunny blue sky, just missing the bustling market of shoppers, some children on their way to school, and nearly blocking the traffic of new cars along the recently resurfaced road! I had to interrupt a conference call with my coworkers, all of whom are wearing new clothes and are healthy and well fed, to point out the emergency! they briefly acknowledged the crisis, then we went back to strategic planning and budget talks... too many opportunities for growing our business! must triage! that's the biggest problem with this economic collapse that's occurring: So many folks are busily going about their successful and happy lives, they don't even notice that the end of days is upon us. >>
Question for you:
Just how long can a person run up their credit cards before that credit gets cut? And what happens to one's lifestyle when the credit is cut and he/she has to start living off actual earnings instead of that credit?
This is precisely what is happening to this country right now. We have been living off credit for the past few decades as evidenced by the ever increasing debt. Once that credit is yanked, how will the U.S. pay for such programs as SS and medicaid? When big foreign banks completely turn away from buying any more of our treasuries, thats the end of the ball game. Japan and China have already begun downsizing their treasury purchases. So without the credit we have taken for granted for so long, just how do you expect the U.S. to mail out SS payments? Pay hospitals for medicaid claims? There will come a breaking point where the U.S. will be forced to "print and pay", and when that happens, your dollars are as good as dead.
So enjoy your weekend shopping sprees and dinners out at Ruby Tuesdays. Those days are finitely numbered for sure. If you dont believe that, then I envy you greatly as I wish I was as comfortable with my head in the sand as you seem to be.....ignorance truly is bliss!
The exponential function demonstrated. A MUST see video!
<< <i>I was joking. Although some members here did just that and have not looked back. I, for one, don't have the big ones to do it and would be dumb to do it with metals at all time highs.
I'm glad to hear you were joking, but I'm going to perseverate on this a bit because it's so massively ill-advised, in case anyone reading this has doubts.
Cashing out a 401(k) to invest in something different is apallingly tax-inefficient. 10% penalty for early withdrawal, 30-40% automatic withholding for taxes, they're looking at a 50% haircut before they even start. So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
Say it did better than double when they go to sell 15-20y from now. Let's even say it beat the long-term market average return for whatever asset classes they were holding in their 401(k). What's the cap gain rate on "collectibles" vs. that of marginal income, which is what the 401(k) funds would be taxed at when withdrawn? Probably higher. So even if someone "wins", they still lose- to Uncle Sam, bigtime.
/soapbox >>
When are you guys going to realize that 401K's were setup to increase taxes? Nobody, except the insanely lucky or already rich and don't need it, can go 40 years w/o needing to pull out the money.
Ok, that's my bad thought for the day....
Free Trial
For a country like Zimbabwe that experienced a 98% daily average inflation rate, we would need prices to double every 24 hrs rather than 24 yrs. The curve looks the same, just the time scale is different. Guess that's why they say that all paper currencies eventually blow up as time eventually does run out.
roadrunner
How much will the next hit be? Will I ever recover after the next one?
<< <i>Percy, we are in the precursor to entire, complete monetary collapse. The only thing to really debate is not IF, but WHEN the collapse will occur. Call me a pesimist, but I think somewhere around 2015-2018 as the time of total collapse. May come even sooner if congress decides to bail out failing states, OR the world adopts a new world reserve currency. You would be very wise to begin dumping any dollars you hold now for tangible assets, whether that be gold, silver, or something else. >>
Geck.... It seems to me it's happening now--right now....that we have begun stepping down the economic starewell and the economy has begun to unravel. Geithner himself said that the budget is unsustainable. Bernake is printing 2.3 million dollars a second and over 3 billion dollars a day! WFT???
That is unfortunate, especially if you are near retirement soon.
This is TMI but my 401(k) is less than three years old, it was started in the middle of 2008.
2008 return = -25%
2009 return = >40%
2010 return = 15%
all net of contributions. I can't complain.
For comparison, my IRA is much older than that, and I haven't added a dime since early 2008.
2008-2011, from high to low was a 32% drop. from low to high is 100% gain as I type. That's a 36% cumulative gain from 2008-2010. Neither portfolio was invested in commodities, the closest I got were / are a couple of oil supermajors.
So I don't know what to tell you, except that some folks who remained fully invested and committed through the recent unpleasantness are doing quite well.
( Don't ask me about coins. That's where I lose my money.
understand, no explanation would suffice.
<< <i>While that compounding video is interesting, the effect of that 100% growth rate on you or me is dependent on the time interval. Given enough time, the curve eventually goes near vertical. In the example provided the time interval is 1 minute. But in US fiat or published consumer prices the time interval to double prices has been on the order of 23-25 yrs. In another 100 yrs at the same rate, prices would be around 500X higher. In 400 yrs 250,000 times higher. So it looks to me that most everyone has accepted the first 20-25X increase in prices pretty well. But it's the next 100 yrs where things start getting out of control at 500X higher. Better to let that happen on someone else's watch than to deal with it today. But either way I'm not going to be here in 2113 to see how that turns out.
For a country like Zimbabwe that experienced a 98% daily average inflation rate, we would need prices to double every 24 hrs rather than 24 yrs. The curve looks the same, just the time scale is different. Guess that's why they say that all paper currencies eventually blow up as time eventually does run out.
roadrunner >>
Hi RR,
You suggest that 100% growth rates of the CPI is in the order of 23-25 years. That may be true, but the price of cotton and corn and soybeans have doubled in less than a year...
Also, silver...wasn't that up 70% last year? We may not be at 98% a day, but we're closer to that happening in one day than 23 years, it seems to me.
I wasn't suggesting that those trends will continue. But if they did, they'd go to those multiples listed. Over 25 yr periods the peaks and valleys get averaged out. We don't expect silver to have too many years like it just put in. There will be down years again as well.
If I was speculating on the CPI growth I'd expect higher numbers > than the norm over the next several years. And being that the CPI is a basket of goods with geometric averaging, those big spikes in cotton, grains, and silver effectively get neutralized. Gotta love geometric averaging for killing inflation spikes...on paper that is. Unforunately we don't get to shop with a "geometric" wallet, where according to the CPI, 3 items at $10, plus one at $70 would only cost us $65...not $100. The arithmetic average of those 4 items is $25 each, with geometric weighting it comes out to $16.25 each. Price is underestimated by 35%. Compound that type of error over many years.
roadrunner
<< <i>Am I reading the tea leaves correctly? Is the economy now collapsing and the masses aren't yet completely convinced?
Hard Assets--tradable items and PMs should just keep escalating now, no? >>
Don't know. Our currency is getting suckier as the govt just prints it like rolls of toilet paper. I'm sticking with the diversify method. Keeping my 401k, which is much higher than what it was before 2008, and still buying my quarter ounce of gold a month.
Positive BST Transactions (buyers and sellers): wondercoin, blu62vette, BAJJERFAN, privatecoin, blu62vette, AlanLastufka, privatecoin
#1 1951 Bowman Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#2 1980 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#8 (and climbing) 1972 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
<< <i>Hi RR, You suggest that 100% growth rates of the CPI is in the order of 23-25 years. That may be true, but the price of cotton and corn and soybeans have doubled in less than a year...Also, silver...wasn't that up 70% last year? We may not be at 98% a day, but we're closer to that happening in one day than 23 years, it seems to me.
I wasn't suggesting that those trends will continue. But if they did, they'd go to those multiples listed. Over 25 yr periods the peaks and valleys get averaged out. We don't expect silver to have too many years like it just put in. There will be down years again as well.
If I was speculating on the CPI growth I'd expect higher numbers > than the norm over the next several years. And being that the CPI is a basket of goods with geometric averaging, those big spikes in cotton, grains, and silver effectively get neutralized. Gotta love geometric averaging for killing inflation spikes...on paper that is. Unforunately we don't get to shop with a "geometric" wallet, where according to the CPI, 3 items at $10, plus one at $70 would only cost us $65...not $100. The arithmetic average of those 4 items is $25 each, with geometric weighting it comes out to $16.25 each. Price is underestimated by 35%. Compound that type of error over many years.
roadrunner >>
Excellent post, and why you got my vote for PM poster of the year! But dont forget in addition to the weighting of items you refer to, there is also hedonism taking place in the CPI calculations. A quick, basic example is, lets say you bought a cordless phone last year that didnt have speakerphone as an option...and it cost $79.99. Now this year, the company has added speakerphone to that same model, AND kept its selling price at $79.99. With hedonics, the CPI would use the new feature as a way to justify that the product was superior, and although the price in the store didnt change, the CPI might calculate the price of the phone as being $69.99 now that its a "better value". And no folks....im NOT kidding! These are some of the tricks your government uses on us to persuade us that inflation is in check!
I wasn't suggesting that those trends will continue. But if they did, they'd go to those multiples listed. Over 25 yr periods the peaks and valleys get averaged out. We don't expect silver to have too many years like it just put in. There will be down years again as well.
oh no no no my friend! I read on the internets [so it must be true] that the price of silver is going to infinity! Also, stock prices are going to zero, real estate, especially in desirable areas, will go to zero! There will be no jobs because, logically, since some jobs are obsolete, every job must go obsolete! and I read that we don't make ANYTHING in the USA anymore! Nothing! this will come as a big surprise to all the people who go to work everyday and provide goods and services! And you know what else i read? the dollars are going worthless! yes! this will undoubtedly happen! and you know what else i read? the government will soon consume 200% of everything there is! yes! and they are going to take from those that don't have anything and give it to those who have less than nothing! yes! oh woe! oh the horror!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Those tricks instituted mostly during the Clinton era are quite impressive indeed. And if that same cordless phone all of a sudden shot up to $100 because the platinum used in the phone just skyrocketed in price, the CPI would then look at the "nearly equivalent" Chinese Cordless BrandX Walmart Signature Series at $59.99 and declare a "net" drop in price from the $79.99 (ie substitutional effect). CPI would then drop.
Hedonism, substitutionalism, geometrics, ..........my head hurts.
roadrunner
Its all designed for a single, simple, evil purpose. To keep the greatest scam in human history afloat.....the U.S. dollar.
what they ought to do is keep figuring goods like whale oil, buggy whips, and manual typwriters into the equations! That will paint a realisic picture for people obsessed with aggregate statistics!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
I wasn't suggesting that those trends will continue. But if they did, they'd go to those multiples listed. Over 25 yr periods the peaks and valleys get averaged out. We don't expect silver to have too many years like it just put in. There will be down years again as well.
oh no no no my friend! I read on the internets [so it must be true] that the price of silver is going to infinity! Also, stock prices are going to zero, real estate, especially in desirable areas, will go to zero! There will be no jobs because, logically, since some jobs are obsolete, every job must go obsolete! and I read that we don't make ANYTHING in the USA anymore! Nothing! this will come as a big surprise to all the people who go to work everyday and provide goods and services! And you know what else i read? the dollars are going worthless! yes! this will undoubtedly happen! and you know what else i read? the government will soon consume 200% of everything there is! yes! and they are going to take from those that don't have anything and give it to those who have less than nothing! yes! oh woe! oh the horror! >>
Finally you are starting to make smoe sense
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>"Hedonism, substitutionalism, geometrics, ..........my head hurts."
Its all designed for a single, simple, evil purpose. To keep the greatest scam in human history afloat.....the U.S. dollar. >>
People a lot smarter then you and I disagree. However, I can't help think we are right. My chips are in play. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Now if the whole rally in the market is for real, I do not know
<< <i>
I wasn't suggesting that those trends will continue. But if they did, they'd go to those multiples listed. Over 25 yr periods the peaks and valleys get averaged out. We don't expect silver to have too many years like it just put in. There will be down years again as well.
oh no no no my friend! I read on the internets [so it must be true] that the price of silver is going to infinity! Also, stock prices are going to zero, real estate, especially in desirable areas, will go to zero! There will be no jobs because, logically, since some jobs are obsolete, every job must go obsolete! and I read that we don't make ANYTHING in the USA anymore! Nothing! this will come as a big surprise to all the people who go to work everyday and provide goods and services! And you know what else i read? the dollars are going worthless! yes! this will undoubtedly happen! and you know what else i read? the government will soon consume 200% of everything there is! yes! and they are going to take from those that don't have anything and give it to those who have less than nothing! yes! oh woe! oh the horror! >>
Right. Check the statistics of the Zimbabwe stock index gains in 2007--it was up over 500%.
Groucho Marx
<< <i>the DOW has done great dollar wise ...but see what happens when you price the DOW in gold. >>
I think you are on to smoething
Great point and spot on. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
One world currency and riots in the streets are coming.
I don't know how many years I've read people saying this. I recall the dooms-day stuff of y2k, too.
RR
I would strongly recommend against that. >>
I was joking. Although some members here did just that and have not looked back.
I did cash out of all my retirement accounts, and I will explain why. The following is exactly why I started thinking about it, to wit:
I'm glad to hear you were joking, but I'm going to perseverate on this a bit because it's so massively ill-advised, in case anyone reading this has doubts.
Cashing out a 401(k) to invest in something different is apallingly tax-inefficient. 10% penalty for early withdrawal, 30-40% automatic withholding for taxes, they're looking at a 50% haircut before they even start. So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
I do have an MBA, in Finance - so let me see if I can help. The 10% tax penalty is real. Now, consider the annual inflation tax for every single year you leave the 401K in dollar-denominated paper, the inflation tax is implemented every single year on the same assets in your retirement account - not just a one time tax, but every single year. The government understates inflation - do you know why? I rest my case.
The 30-40% automatic witholding is relative. Can you figure this out, or do I need to help you? Ok, I'll help you. What do you think that your tax rate will be when you withdraw the funds after you retire? Go ahead and speculate about what that rate might be. Have you heard anyone continually harping about how taxes will need to increase in order to fund our massively overspent entitlement programs from this point forward? How much government spending do you think needs to be cut, and how much do you think they will actually cut? Let me think for a moment. When they say "cut", they really mean frozen at today's exorbitant spending levels that are generating deficits 4X faster than Bush did. If you think that the NEA sit-in at the Wisconsin statehouse is indicative of what's coming, you are right. The entitlement groups are always going to push for more spending and more benefits no matter what the budget says.
Anyhow, back to the 30-40% automatic witholding. Any way you slice it, you will pay income taxes on the profits from your retirement plan when you cash it in. My assumption has been that those tax rates are going higher, in spite of the fact that you will supposedly be in a lower tax bracket at the time you retire. In other words, it's going to be a wash, at best. At worst it could very well be a dumb, dumb, dumb idea to leave your assets where you can only have access to them after the entity you pay to keep them has jumped through all the bureaucratic and regulatory hoops that they keep piling on. (If they are still solvent when you want your money, that is.)
So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
Don't worry - I did cash out, and those particular funds have more than doubled already. I stopped believing in the paper fiasco and now it's very easy to see what they keep doing to the currency and the stock market. The conventional "be a good little citizen" mantra that the government slips into your coffee every waking moment only applies to you. It doesn't apply to the unions, the wall streeters, the government itself - the Dodds, the Raines, the Geithners, the Daschels, the Sandy Burgers, the Hasterts, the whole Illinois machine, the Rangels - the gollums who worm their way into the system and use it for personal advantage. You have to protect yourself. Nobody else is going to do it - least of all, the government. I am sorry to come off sounding severe, but I think reality can't be ignored any more. Instead of changing their attitude, they have stepped on the gas. I am convinced that they know what they are doing.
***** Note, I'm not recommending that anyone cash out 100% all at one time, but I do think it's a very good idea to ease out and to not take forever to do it. Always move in increments. Everyone has an opinion, and this is the countervailing opinion.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>yeah, that substitution business is real tricksy! what they ought to do is keep figuring goods like whale oil, buggy whips, and manual typwriters into the equations! That will paint a realisic picture for people obsessed with aggregate statistics! >>
Apparently they must be doing precisely that. How else can today's reported CPI-U be 2% while employing the govt's 1980 model with identical data would get you 9%?
That's an apples to apples comparison.
roadrunner
Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistr...dset.aspx?s=68269&ac=1">Musky 1861 Mint Set
home page of George Soros
<< <i>I'm actually surprised how well the DOW has recovered from the 2009 "crash."
Now if the whole rally in the market is for real, I do not know >>
remember the NASDAQ in 2000?...for different circumstances. believe me it's "real" as long as it goes up, then it's a balloon and a POS when it bursts.
the earnings reports now are setting up for impossible results in the near quarters. Pre dot-com bubble was very "real" for those who received millions on a wing and a prayer and some sort of a business plan while the VC's knew that only 1 in ~8-12 or less would make them money (survive)and enough to cover more than the seed money tossed on barren soil. it didn't matter if you just got a VC to fund you...but the term "burn-rate" was with you every second thereafter as you spun around in your $5k office chair.
housing pre 2007 was a "real" as it got for J6P.
housing stabilization and employment are realities for a recovery
<< <i>I will just explode you guys' heads off by inviting you to see this video on the
home page of George Soros >>
Well Frank I watched the whole thing. I did not hear anything that would blow me away.
<< <i>
<< <i>I will just explode you guys' heads off by inviting you to see this video on the
home page of George Soros >>
Well Frank I watched the whole thing. I did not hear anything that would blow me away. >>
I watched part of it and got bored.
Were you perhaps referring to one of the tapes not the one that came up on top in the link?
I don't see your point. Last I looked every asset that one can buy in the US is denominated in dollars, just like every bill I pay. The value of an asset doesn't move around simply because the value of the unit of account does- the price perhaps will move but price is always relative to the value of the marker, in this case dollars. Whether one asset or another will do a better job of maintaining purchasing power in a dollar-inflationary environment is a speculation we're all welcome to make. To suggest that such assets with pricing power aren't available in most 401(k)s or other retirement accounts is absurd.
If only land, gold, or other hard assets meet this criteria for you, then have a look at the custodial accounts available at PEMCO. You can hold land in a PEMCO IRA, and probably other things as well.
What do you think that your tax rate will be when you withdraw the funds after you retire?
The tax arbitrage opportunity afforded by IRAs/401(k)s is a distraction. No one knows whether their marginal tax rate in retirement will be greater or lesser than their current tax rate, and the way many savers hedge this is by having a balance of retirement assets in both traditional and Roth-type retirement instruments. You and everyone else is free to speculate, of course and can weigh pre-tax and after-tax accounts accordingly.
You conveniently ignore the most important benefits of employer-sponsored retirement plans: the opportunity for contribution matching by the employer and the ability to compound tax-free. The former is free money, the latter is a *huge* benefit to the compounding of gains, especially over longer time frames.
Now, back to my original point. If someone wants to save for retirement "outside of dollar-denominated paper" or whatever, the best way to do it is to use money you didn't put in the 401(k) in the first place. Removing 401(k) assets before retirement age is hugely tax-inefficient.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I will just explode you guys' heads off by inviting you to see this video on the
home page of George Soros >>
Well Frank I watched the whole thing. I did not hear anything that would blow me away. >>
I watched part of it and got bored.
Were you perhaps referring to one of the tapes not the one that came up on top in the link? >>
The whole thing was as boring as the beginning. Nothing exciting that I saw, just some Bush bashing and Obama touting.
<< <i>My 401K just FINALLY got back to my pre 2008 crash balance. Almost 3 years in idle.
How much will the next hit be? Will I ever recover after the next one? >>
I am still not back to the 2008 level.
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
I don't see your point.
Yes, I know. You are totally into the game that the banks and financial industry wants you to be into. What I can't believe is that you don't see my point.
These subsequent posts illustrate my point entirely:
<< My 401K just FINALLY got back to my pre 2008 crash balance. Almost 3 years in idle.
How much will the next hit be? Will I ever recover after the next one? >>
I am still not back to the 2008 level.
It doesn't matter much if the "free money" that comes from matching funds disappears right along with your earned contributions when the market gets hammered. Then, to keep the little fishies from panicking they inflate the stock market with stimulus money and expect you to believe that the money isn't being destroyed.
ranshdow, I don't know what's absurd about seeing reality for what it is, and then stepping aside when you see a freight train bearing down on you. Yes, it's true that we've been hearing dire predictions for 40 years, and you tend to become conditioned. On the other hand, why do you suppose gold has risen 10 years running? Luck?
Why would anyone need a custodial Pimco account if they're grown-up enough to manage their own money? That's the fallacy we've all been taught - that the Timmy Geithners of the world are so much smarter than us "little people". I'll leave it at that.
I do think it's a backhanded slap to say that anyone in charge of their own assets is "speculating". Tell that to someone who has been financially hobbled and who still keeps his assets in a "custodial" relationship with a large financial institution because of the lure of "free money" as an incentive to stay in a losing relationship. Why is there a penalty for withdrawing your own retirement funds before retirement age from one of these plans? That thought process is somewhat ironic, based on the results of the past 10 years.
Keep your own money, manage it yourself - and if you come out ahead it is speculation. Let some "custodian" manage it for a fee, lose a big chunk of your assets, get your butt kicked - and that is called a "no brainer".
How many more years of corruption and mismanagement in the financial industry and in big government will it take before you see my point, ranshdow?
I knew it would happen.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
The biggest risks that I see aren't market-driven, they are government and banking cartel-driven. Everything they do is designed to fleece the innocent. There is no integrity and no good will involved.
I knew it would happen.