<< <i>I do not come on the precious metals forum to prognosticate and make wild predictions about stocks or bonds or the financial system.
I only advocated diversification relative to understanding a individual's tolerance for risk.
I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ......
You doomsdayers should stick to precious metals and coins cause the rest you really don't know what your your talking about.
But if you do make and continue to make idiotic comments are you surprised your being challenged?
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
No, you keep pushing your BS .... and that is really what it is.... >>
You should practice what you preach. Your prognostications on gold from 2006-2011 were basically all wrong. And if you were around here 4 years earlier, I suspect you'd have been wrong from 2002-2006 as well. It would seem at every point along the way of that 12 year rally you promoted stocks and oil, but sold down precious metals. Gold outperformed oil from Dec 2008 to Sept 2011 much to your chagrin. You wanted to sell gold in Dec 2008 while it was still in the $800's. How clueless was that? And we're supposed to have faith in your current forecasts when you got the PM bull market wrong? You're a professional that works markets 10 hours a day. Most of us here are just amateurs. We expect better from the pros....and pretty much get it from most of them here.
In Aug 2007 you took great glee in reporting that gold was tanking (just as it was getting ready for a 50% move to $1,000+). At that same time in Aug-Sept 2007 you were pushing stocks - 1 month before their top....and a 50% haircut over the next 18 months. We too are tired of reading your comments on how PM's stink and stocks are great. As a 30-40 year professional in the financial market you could at least report fairly on both sides as Cohodk and other professional brokers and traders do. When you and OPA team up to denigrate PMs at every turn it's quite the show....been that way for as long as you've been here. And when you make incorrect statements about the financial markets (and especially PMs), expect to be challenged. Did you ever say you were wrong about stocks in Sept 2007? I don't think you did. You sort of disappeared from here as stocks were getting pummeled in late 2007-2008. Just because you missed a 12 consecutive year rally in PM's and miners from 2000-2011 is no reason to punish other people for your miss. Stocks stunk from 2000-2011. And they really stunk from 2000-2009, and were flat from 1997-2009. But gold makes an easy target.
I'm sure you were in a lot of pain as you saw "stupid" PMs FAR outperform your stock and bond market portfolios for 12 years. Seems you're still trying to punish the bulls that got it right to make up for you having missed that train. It's not our fault that multiple gold and silver buying opportunities hit you in your arse from 1999-2011 and you missed them all. Not everyone recognized the 10 bagger potential in silver in 2001 or the 5-7 bagger in gold. Sinclair did (see below). For something that generates "no growth," those are pretty good returns. You're the last person that should be criticizing or critiquing anyone around here about PMs. You're so blinded by your hatred of them you couldn't think straight, even during a 12 year bull.
Did I cost average down my PM's during the 2011-2014 gold slide? No. I pretty much stopped buying physical by 2008. Most purchases were made from 2002-2007. Made a few small purchases in early 2008 at higher prices than I should have and sold those into the 2011 rally. I was never comfortable buying gold bullion above $1200 and just didn't do it...not even in 2010-2011. I "missed" the entire rally above that point as I was already set. My first gold purchases were made in Sept 2002 at $315/oz gold...after my first reading of Sinclair's summary of JPM's $38 TRILL in otc derivatives (they doubled it to $78 TRILL by 2008). I wrote extensively about that stuff in 2004...right here.
<< <i>I do not come on the precious metals forum to prognosticate and make wild predictions about stocks or bonds or the financial system.
I only advocated diversification relative to understanding a individual's tolerance for risk.
I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ......
You doomsdayers should stick to precious metals and coins cause the rest you really don't know what your your talking about.
But if you do make and continue to make idiotic comments are you surprised your being challenged?
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
No, you keep pushing your BS .... and that is really what it is.... >>
You should practice what you preach. Your prognostications on gold from 2006-2011 were basically all wrong. And if you were around here 4 years earlier, I suspect you'd have been wrong from 2002-2006 as well. It would seem at every point along the way of that 12 year rally you promoted stocks and oil, but sold down precious metals. Gold outperformed oil from Dec 2008 to Sept 2011 much to your chagrin. You wanted to sell gold in Dec 2008 while it was still in the $800's. How clueless was that? And we're supposed to have faith in your current forecasts when you got the PM bull market wrong? You're a professional that works markets 10 hours a day. Most of us here are just amateurs. We expect better from the pros....and pretty much get it from most of them here.
In Aug 2007 you took great glee in reporting that gold was tanking (just as it was getting ready for a 50% move to $1,000+). At that same time in Aug-Sept 2007 you were pushing stocks - 1 month before their top....and a 50% haircut over the next 18 months. We too are tired of reading your comments on how PM's stink and stocks are great. As a 30-40 year professional in the financial market you could at least report fairly on both sides as Cohodk and other professional brokers and traders do. When you and OPA team up to denigrate PMs at every turn it's quite the show....been that way for as long as you've been here. And when you make incorrect statements about the financial markets (and especially PMs), expect to be challenged. Did you ever say you were wrong about stocks in Sept 2007? I don't think you did. You sort of disappeared from here as stocks were getting pummeled in late 2007-2008. Just because you missed a 12 consecutive year rally in PM's and miners from 2000-2011 is no reason to punish other people for your miss. Stocks stunk from 2000-2011. And they really stunk from 2000-2009, and were flat from 1997-2009. But gold makes an easy target.
I'm sure you were in a lot of pain as you saw "stupid" PMs FAR outperform your stock and bond market portfolios for 12 years. Seems you're still trying to punish the bulls that got it right to make up for you having missed that train. It's not our fault that multiple gold and silver buying opportunities hit you in your arse from 1999-2011 and you missed them all. Not everyone recognized the 10 bagger potential in silver in 2001 or the 5-7 bagger in gold. Sinclair did (see below). For something that generates "no growth," those are pretty good returns. You're the last person that should be criticizing or critiquing anyone around here about PMs. You're so blinded by your hatred of them you couldn't think straight, even during a 12 year bull.
Did I cost average down my PM's during the 2011-2014 gold slide? No. I pretty much stopped buying physical by 2008. Most purchases were made from 2002-2007. Made a few small purchases in early 2008 at higher prices than I should have and sold those into the 2011 rally. I was never comfortable buying gold bullion above $1200 and just didn't do it...not even in 2010-2011. I "missed" the entire rally above that point as I was already set. My first gold purchases were made in Sept 2002 at $315/oz gold...after my first reading of Sinclair's summary of JPM's $38 TRILL in otc derivatives (they doubled it to $78 TRILL by 2008). I wrote extensively about that stuff in 2004...right here. >>
You have a ton of posts and an opinion constantly on many different asset classes. I don't know what you do for a living but you sure would be a great financial advisor !!!
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
In this corner we have a guy who does it for a living. In that corner we have a guy who is sceptical if the sun will come up tomorrow.
Play fair lads. >>
My insurance policies are all paid up, so that's a bet on the sun. We all get our Vit D3 from the sun. So the sun better come up.
You have a ton of posts and an opinion constantly on many different asset classes. I don't know what you do for a living but you sure would be a great financial advisor !!!
I applied for positions in the financial world early and was rejected for being too honest...or not being willing to market investments to people who didn't need them. One insurance company told me I was so far off their rating charts (ie integrity/honesty) that they suggested I never consider a career in that field. Worked out ok as the US Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program appreciated those same faults and took me in. Did 10 years and qualified as submarine chief engineer. Next 20 years were spent in civilian power/combustion plants up to plant manager. Though trained in math and engineering, what I really did was critically analyze performance and operations. If I had to do it all over again I probably would have started off on the path to actuary or CPA. Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced. Spent several years as a coin dealer in the 1980's which gave me some insights into parts of the business collectors don't often see. In the past 13 years I've probably done 10,000+ hours in the analysis/research of PM and related markets.
In this corner we have a guy who does it for a living. In that corner we have a guy who is sceptical if the sun will come up tomorrow.
Play fair lads. >>
My insurance policies are all paid up, so that's a bet on the sun. We all get our Vit D3 from the sun. So the sun better come up.
You have a ton of posts and an opinion constantly on many different asset classes. I don't know what you do for a living but you sure would be a great financial advisor !!!
I applied for positions in the financial world early and was rejected for being too honest...or not being willing to market investments to people who didn't need them. One insurance company told me I was so far off their rating charts (ie integrity/honesty) that they suggested I never consider a career in that field. Worked out ok as the US Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program appreciated those same faults and took me in. Did 10 years and qualified as submarine chief engineer. Next 20 years were spent in civilian power/combustion plants up to plant manager. Though trained in math and engineering, what I really did was critically analyze performance and operations. If I had to do it all over again I probably would have started off on the path to actuary or CPA. Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced. Spent several years as a coin dealer in the 1980's which gave me some insights into parts of the business collectors don't often see. In the past 13 years I've probably done 10,000+ hours in the analysis/research of PM and related markets. >>
"Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced."
Hellooo !!
Yes, that is always the goal.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>"Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced."
Hellooo !!
Yes, that is always the goal. >>
Maybe the goal publicized to the public, but not what the fat cats really want you to do. They want to seel you crap that makes them money.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>"Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced."
Hellooo !!
Yes, that is always the goal. >>
Maybe the goal publicized to the public, but not what the fat cats really want you to do. They want to seel you crap that makes them money. >>
Sometimes there are products created by wall street that are crap no doubt.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. I did make that mistake once too. I recommended an item to my brother that I was already in. It ended up tanking and losing him $5K. I lost a lot more. Since I had recommended it, I ended up making him 100% whole....and learning a valuable lesson that recommending investments to family members is often a lose-lose. Never done it since. I sleep with a clear conscience too. One should not be any more successful than your clients if you are handling their investments. And no doubt that kind of mindset made me unemployable in the financial sector.....
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
A broker gets paid when you buy and when sell at a loss. No skin in the game other than your repeat business. >>
Thats a broker who charges comissions. They are dinosuars. Fee based accounts are different.
A flat fee as a % of managed assets is charged ......if the assets go up in value the advisor gets paid more. If the assets go down in value the advisor gets paid less. Much like a mutual fund and their internal expenses.
If the fund assets go up the fund company gets paid more....if the fund assets go down the fund company gets paid less.
It's always in the best interest of fee based advisors to grow the account ( should be in any event) and thus are on the same side of the table as the client. There is no incentive to place or sell s*&t.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. I did make that mistake once too. I recommended an item to my brother that I was already in. It ended up tanking and losing him $5K. I lost a lot more. Since I had recommended it, I ended up making him 100% whole....and learning a valuable lesson that recommending investments to family members is often a lose-lose. Never done it since. I sleep with a clear conscience too. One should not be any more successful than your clients if you are handling their investments. And no doubt that kind of mindset made me unemployable in the financial sector..... >>
Some frown on recommending stocks owned without providing a disclaimer. Edited to add: I want to know if the guy pushing XYZ has a personal interest in seeing it bid up.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
In my Bizzarro world if your client's account goes down, you should get nothing. If you can't make your client's account grow, then you either need to find different clients or change your investing model.
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose $$ too....and on top of that probably your future business as well, as it should be. Simple enough.
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. I did make that mistake once too. I recommended an item to my brother that I was already in. It ended up tanking and losing him $5K. I lost a lot more. Since I had recommended it, I ended up making him 100% whole....and learning a valuable lesson that recommending investments to family members is often a lose-lose. Never done it since. I sleep with a clear conscience too. One should not be any more successful than your clients if you are handling their investments. And no doubt that kind of mindset made me unemployable in the financial sector..... >>
At my firm ( and their are plenty of others) if you have the experience you can build a flat fee based business as a % of assets being managed and trade along side your clients. I do it all the time.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. >>
So an adviser who is 35 and has a long term aggressive growth profile should recommend the same investments to his 75 year old clients, to the same or similar degree that he invests in himself... and then wait for FINRA to hand him the beatdown?
<< <i>In my Bizzarro world if your client's account goes down, you should get nothing. If you can't make your client's account grow, then you either need to find different clients or change your investing model.
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose $$ too....and on top of that probably your future business as well, as it should be. Simple enough. >>
Its not that simple. Everything is not based on return ( and especially only getting paid if your clients account goes up !!....that is bizzare......and is not done anywhere I know of) .
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>In my Bizzarro world if your client's account goes down, you should get nothing. If you can't make your client's account grow, then you either need to find different clients or change your investing model.
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose too. Simple enough. >>
The whole concept of financial advisers is another sin that can be laid at the feet of the Fed of course. Without 100 years of relentless inflation we wouldn't need any of them.
No need to beat the market if a year from now my dollar is worth more right?
It would be terrific if the people here that are sceptical of salesman's tactics had juuuust a little experience working in a financial services firm and had the longevity of bridging an economic cycle.
Then you'd probably know that 99.9% of the rotten apples get weeded out.
Most of you sceptics seem to had the unfortunate luck of picking the 0.1% of those apples.
<< <i>It would be terrific if the people here that are sceptical of salesman's tactics had juuuust a little experience working in a financial services firm and had the longevity of bridging an economic cycle.
Then you'd probably know that 99.9% of the rotten apples get weeded out.
Most of you sceptics seem to had the unfortunate luck of picking the 0.1% of those apples.
Let's hope it's not genetic >>
Thank you and so true.
Here is why it is worthwhile to seek a knowledgeable, experienced, and trustworthy financial advisor.
<< <i>In my Bizzarro world if your client's account goes down, you should get nothing. If you can't make your client's account grow, then you either need to find different clients or change your investing model.
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose $$ too....and on top of that probably your future business as well, as it should be. Simple enough. >>
Wow, on what planet do you live in, or perhaps what commune. Sounds great, unfortunately most of us don't have fortune tellers or crystal balls that accurately can predict the future. Just imagine, applying that theory to farmers, cattleman or come to think of, anything that is tied into "mother natures" play. Reality check...those that don't perform, usually do not stay in business for very long.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Just to state- I'm on neither side however if this discussion, had it taken place between 1985-2002, would have far fewer PM gurus touting their incendiary brilliance .
The sizzle is off the PM steak. Get used to it.
Don't mistake a rising market for smarts. Luck and timing can make a moron look like Einstein.
<< <i>Just to state- I'm on neither side however if this discussion, had it taken place between 1985-2002, would have far fewer PM gurus touting their incendiary brilliance .
The sizzle is off the PM steak. Get used to it.
Don't mistake a rising market for smarts. Luck and timing can make a moron look like Einstein. >>
Very well stated!
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>In a bull market every moron is a financial advisor, in a bear market no one needs one... >>
Thats it pretty much. The bad markets turn all the Einsteins into morons but the beauty of being a paid adviser is you still get that paycheck while your clients are bleeding out.
"Just stick with me , I have a system. We will turn things around. " said every adviser everywhere
When you're up to your ass in alligators, it's hard to convince yourself that draining the swamp is the best thing to do. Those who bought netflix/NFLX at $304 only to watch it tank to $67 had to have a lot of stones hoping it "would come back". Their patience did pay off. I wonder if those who bought Intercept/ICPT at $400 feel as lucky now that it's at $150.
<< <i>Fascinating reading. Probably a great lesson to realize that it's folly to make predictions and then take drastic measures with our savings and make all or nothing bets on those human prognostications. None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays. >>
Yes indeed. The best wisdom there is.
Whatever everyone thinks is going to happen, something else will happen instead.
<< <i>.....Wow, on what planet do you live in, or perhaps what commune. Sounds great, unfortunately most of us don't have fortune tellers or crystal balls that accurately can predict the future. Just imagine, applying that theory to farmers, cattleman or come to think of, anything that is tied into "mother natures" play. Reality check...those that don't perform, usually do not stay in business for very long. >>
Well, at least the 2nd sentence is right....and the very reason why so many advisors aren't worth what they are being paid. Farmers, cattleman, etc. can take out their own insurance and hedges to protect them from calamities. Most of them probably do just fine with common sense.....that is, the few independent cattleman that are left that actually think for themselves.
That's exactly why I don't give out financial advice, handle investments for clients, etc. None of them know what's coming even if they convince their clients that they do. Over the long run their performances even out to no better than what you could do by investing yourself. If you handle other people's investments and make money while they lose, then maybe you should be in a commune where investment advice on securities isn't needed.
The sad part of the story is that those who don't perform, DO stay in business for FAR longer than they should. Ever hear of Bernie Madoff? He made lots of money for his clients over 20 yrs....only on paper though. You don't need years of steady gains to entice new customers to follow you. Many do it on a call of a lifetime (Prechter from 1982-1987) or having made the last good call. Watch when the stock market tops and some guy who has been out of it for 1-3 years all of a sudden becomes a guru that the media is tripping over to interview. No one cares that they were wrong for years...only that they called the TOP....or maybe called (or will call) the bottom in commodities. In the financial investing world you're as good as your last call. No one cares about all the calls before the last one as their collective memories are short. If your last call wasn't good....then make another one. Eventually you will get it right and clients will flock to you.
In a bull market every moron is a financial advisor .....I witnessed that in 2004-2006 when everyone at work had a financial advisor and were flipping real estate. They expected that to continue forever. Most of them had canned those same advisors by 2009. At that point they couldn't even tie their shoes.
Those same moronic advisors won't tell you when to get out when the peak has come and gone. Cost average down and all that stuff. You gotta be in it to win it! (ie just like the state lotteries).
According to the recent Congressional Budget Office study, approximately 60% of all U.S. households get more in transfer payments from the government than they pay in taxes. Roughly 70% of all government spending now goes toward dependence-creating programs
The remaining 40% of U.S. households are most likely buying gold while they can.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
In a bull market every moron is a financial advisor .....I witnessed that in 2004-2006 when everyone at work had a financial advisor and were flipping real estate. They expected that to continue forever. Most of them had canned those same advisors by 2009. At that point they couldn't even tie their shoes.
Those same moronic advisors won't tell you when to get out when the peak has come and gone. Cost average down and all that stuff. You gotta be in it to win it! (ie just like the state lotteries).
In a bull market every moron is a gold and silver investor.....I witnessed that in 2008-2011 (1978-1980) when everyone was a stacker and flipping coins and bars. They expected that to continue forever. Most of them had slowed their buying by 2013 (1983) At that point they couldn't profitably flip
Those same stackers won't tell you when to get out when the peak has come and gone. Cost average down and all that stuff. You gotta be in it to win it! (ie just like the state lotteries).
not saying that's what I think, (dammit im a stacker too) but that's kind of what someone could potentially think about metals... see ya in 25 or 30 years for the next bubble
I hope it's sooner, I'd like to see a pop above $2000 and $50 and get out with some profits to spend and enjoy before I'm 6 feet under cuz I ain't getting any younger
Baley, the difference in those 2 scenarios was that it was a "good" thing to be speculating on real estate and stocks from 2006-2008. You got praised for that by your peers....you were "smart." It involved most everyone where I worked (40 employees). When gold was running from 2008-2011 I couldn't find a single person at work who though investing in gold was even a good idea...never mind the stealth run up form 2001-2008. My peers at work thought I was nuts in 2004-2006 to be investing in PMs rather than being "all-in" in stocks and real estate. It was pretty much the same here on the forum (10-1 favored stocks over pms). It's pretty much back to 10-1 again, maybe a lot higher.
I think that more permanent type damage has been done to the economy this time around. I think that loud sucking sound is deflation, and the only known way to neutralize deflation is to hyperinflate.
If you think this was "volatility", I'm afraid that we haven't seen the real stuff yet.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I think that more permanent type damage has been done to the economy this time around. I think that loud sucking sound is deflation, and the only known way to neutralize deflation is to hyperinflate.
If you think this was "volatility", I'm afraid that we haven't seen the real stuff yet. >>
There is permanent damage to what was once the middle (working) class of America. Nary a dime of the $10 trillion dumped into the U.S. economy over the last 6 years ended up in the hands of what was once the middle (working) class and hence, low inflation in spite of it and 6 years of ZIRP.
No one really knows how America will do with 75% of the population being "low" income, paying no taxes, living on gov't aid, and with essentially zero net worth but we will find out. Soon.
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
>>
I was wrong about a "dollar collapse", selling my 401K for fears of confiscation, going all in metals (I actually sold metals before the run-up and crash), and wrong about the integrity of the capital markets over the long term.
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
>>
I was wrong about a "dollar collapse", selling my 401K for fears of confiscation, going all in metals (I actually sold metals before the run-up and crash), and wrong about the integrity of the capital markets over the long term.
Tyler >>
No worries. The "orchestration" was better than I thought too. That's not to say that there won't be a dollar collapse, 401k confiscation or the like in the future. Are we already on the road to serfdom? I guess we'll know when we get there.
This is basically what Armstrong's ECM capital flows model has been predicting. He's been right with the bursting of each bubble since 2000. The bond bubble bursting will coincide with sovereign debt crisis all around the world. It's going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Capital flows are already rushing into the US as sovereign debt crisis approach in Europe and emerging nations. It will continue until the US joins the debt implosion. 2016-2020 is Armstrong's estimate for all this to occur. 2015 will be the final hurrah for this current bubble in assets. Bonds and the SM are about the only ones left still to pop. Big investors are already hiding out in expensive art, rare coins, top end real estate, etc. as they get their money off the paper financial grid.
It's not exactly preventable. It's a 120 year increasing debt cycle coming to an end. It happens. Probably no one here has experienced one like it before. It affects the whole world.
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
>>
I was wrong about a "dollar collapse", selling my 401K for fears of confiscation, going all in metals (I actually sold metals before the run-up and crash), and wrong about the integrity of the capital markets over the long term.
Tyler >>
You will do better in the future because you seem to have the humility to learn from your mistake.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Been there, done that, still have 90% of my clients and they all have higher net worth. >>
Those aren't 120 yr debt wash out cycles....unless you were alive back in 1894. All those time frames you list above are all part of the 82 year rising stock market-rising bond prices (rising debt) cycle. No real washouts there...just minor corrections. 2016-2020 will be a very difficult period to maintain net worth, let alone increase it.
Been there, done that, still have 90% of my clients and they all have higher net worth. >>
Those aren't 120 yr debt wash out cycles....unless you were alive back in 1894. All those time frames you list above are all part of the 82 year rising stock market-rising bond prices (rising debt) cycle. No real washouts there...just minor corrections. 2016-2020 will be a very difficult period to maintain net worth, let alone increase it. >>
Ok so where are you going to put your money between 2016-2020?
Let me guess ........gold!
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Comments
<< <i>I do not come on the precious metals forum to prognosticate and make wild predictions about stocks or bonds or the financial system.
I only advocated diversification relative to understanding a individual's tolerance for risk.
I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ......
You doomsdayers should stick to precious metals and coins cause the rest you really don't know what your your talking about.
But if you do make and continue to make idiotic comments are you surprised your being challenged?
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
No, you keep pushing your BS .... and that is really what it is.... >>
You should practice what you preach. Your prognostications on gold from 2006-2011 were basically all wrong. And if you were around here 4 years earlier, I suspect you'd have been wrong from 2002-2006 as well. It would seem at every point along the way of that 12 year rally you promoted stocks and oil, but sold down precious metals. Gold outperformed oil from Dec 2008 to Sept 2011 much to your chagrin. You wanted to sell gold in Dec 2008 while it was still in the $800's. How clueless was that? And we're supposed to have faith in your current forecasts when you got the PM bull market wrong? You're a professional that works markets 10 hours a day. Most of us here are just amateurs. We expect better from the pros....and pretty much get it from most of them here.
In Aug 2007 you took great glee in reporting that gold was tanking (just as it was getting ready for a 50% move to $1,000+). At that same time in Aug-Sept 2007 you were pushing stocks - 1 month before their top....and a 50% haircut over the next 18 months. We too are tired of reading your comments on how PM's stink and stocks are great. As a 30-40 year professional in the financial market you could at least report fairly on both sides as Cohodk and other professional brokers and traders do. When you and OPA team up to denigrate PMs at every turn it's quite the show....been that way for as long as you've been here. And when you make incorrect statements about the financial markets (and especially PMs), expect to be challenged. Did you ever say you were wrong about stocks in Sept 2007? I don't think you did. You sort of disappeared from here as stocks were getting pummeled in late 2007-2008. Just because you missed a 12 consecutive year rally in PM's and miners from 2000-2011 is no reason to punish other people for your miss. Stocks stunk from 2000-2011. And they really stunk from 2000-2009, and were flat from 1997-2009. But gold makes an easy target.
I'm sure you were in a lot of pain as you saw "stupid" PMs FAR outperform your stock and bond market portfolios for 12 years. Seems you're still trying to punish the bulls that got it right to make up for you having missed that train. It's not our fault that multiple gold and silver buying opportunities hit you in your arse from 1999-2011 and you missed them all. Not everyone recognized the 10 bagger potential in silver in 2001 or the 5-7 bagger in gold. Sinclair did (see below). For something that generates "no growth," those are pretty good returns. You're the last person that should be criticizing or critiquing anyone around here about PMs. You're so blinded by your hatred of them you couldn't think straight, even during a 12 year bull.
Did I cost average down my PM's during the 2011-2014 gold slide? No. I pretty much stopped buying physical by 2008. Most purchases were made from 2002-2007. Made a few small purchases in early 2008 at higher prices than I should have and sold those into the 2011 rally. I was never comfortable buying gold bullion above $1200 and just didn't do it...not even in 2010-2011. I "missed" the entire rally above that point as I was already set. My first gold purchases were made in Sept 2002 at $315/oz gold...after my first reading of Sinclair's summary of JPM's $38 TRILL in otc derivatives (they doubled it to $78 TRILL by 2008). I wrote extensively about that stuff in 2004...right here.
<< <i>
<< <i>I do not come on the precious metals forum to prognosticate and make wild predictions about stocks or bonds or the financial system.
I only advocated diversification relative to understanding a individual's tolerance for risk.
I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ......
You doomsdayers should stick to precious metals and coins cause the rest you really don't know what your your talking about.
But if you do make and continue to make idiotic comments are you surprised your being challenged?
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
No, you keep pushing your BS .... and that is really what it is.... >>
You should practice what you preach. Your prognostications on gold from 2006-2011 were basically all wrong. And if you were around here 4 years earlier, I suspect you'd have been wrong from 2002-2006 as well. It would seem at every point along the way of that 12 year rally you promoted stocks and oil, but sold down precious metals. Gold outperformed oil from Dec 2008 to Sept 2011 much to your chagrin. You wanted to sell gold in Dec 2008 while it was still in the $800's. How clueless was that? And we're supposed to have faith in your current forecasts when you got the PM bull market wrong? You're a professional that works markets 10 hours a day. Most of us here are just amateurs. We expect better from the pros....and pretty much get it from most of them here.
In Aug 2007 you took great glee in reporting that gold was tanking (just as it was getting ready for a 50% move to $1,000+). At that same time in Aug-Sept 2007 you were pushing stocks - 1 month before their top....and a 50% haircut over the next 18 months. We too are tired of reading your comments on how PM's stink and stocks are great. As a 30-40 year professional in the financial market you could at least report fairly on both sides as Cohodk and other professional brokers and traders do. When you and OPA team up to denigrate PMs at every turn it's quite the show....been that way for as long as you've been here. And when you make incorrect statements about the financial markets (and especially PMs), expect to be challenged. Did you ever say you were wrong about stocks in Sept 2007? I don't think you did. You sort of disappeared from here as stocks were getting pummeled in late 2007-2008. Just because you missed a 12 consecutive year rally in PM's and miners from 2000-2011 is no reason to punish other people for your miss. Stocks stunk from 2000-2011. And they really stunk from 2000-2009, and were flat from 1997-2009. But gold makes an easy target.
I'm sure you were in a lot of pain as you saw "stupid" PMs FAR outperform your stock and bond market portfolios for 12 years. Seems you're still trying to punish the bulls that got it right to make up for you having missed that train. It's not our fault that multiple gold and silver buying opportunities hit you in your arse from 1999-2011 and you missed them all. Not everyone recognized the 10 bagger potential in silver in 2001 or the 5-7 bagger in gold. Sinclair did (see below). For something that generates "no growth," those are pretty good returns. You're the last person that should be criticizing or critiquing anyone around here about PMs. You're so blinded by your hatred of them you couldn't think straight, even during a 12 year bull.
Did I cost average down my PM's during the 2011-2014 gold slide? No. I pretty much stopped buying physical by 2008. Most purchases were made from 2002-2007. Made a few small purchases in early 2008 at higher prices than I should have and sold those into the 2011 rally. I was never comfortable buying gold bullion above $1200 and just didn't do it...not even in 2010-2011. I "missed" the entire rally above that point as I was already set. My first gold purchases were made in Sept 2002 at $315/oz gold...after my first reading of Sinclair's summary of JPM's $38 TRILL in otc derivatives (they doubled it to $78 TRILL by 2008). I wrote extensively about that stuff in 2004...right here. >>
You have a ton of posts and an opinion constantly on many different asset classes. I don't know what you do for a living but you sure would be a great financial advisor !!!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
In this corner we have a guy who does it for a living. In that corner we have a guy who is sceptical if the sun will come up tomorrow.
Play fair lads.
<< <i>Oh goody. I love a good fight.
In this corner we have a guy who does it for a living. In that corner we have a guy who is sceptical if the sun will come up tomorrow.
Play fair lads. >>
My insurance policies are all paid up, so that's a bet on the sun. We all get our Vit D3 from the sun. So the sun better come up.
You have a ton of posts and an opinion constantly on many different asset classes. I don't know what you do for a living but you sure would be a great financial advisor !!!
I applied for positions in the financial world early and was rejected for being too honest...or not being willing to market investments to people who didn't need them. One insurance company told me I was so far off their rating charts (ie integrity/honesty) that they suggested I never consider a career in that field. Worked out ok as the US Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program appreciated those same faults and took me in. Did 10 years and qualified as submarine chief engineer. Next 20 years were spent in civilian power/combustion plants up to plant manager. Though trained in math and engineering, what I really did was critically analyze performance and operations. If I had to do it all over again I probably would have started off on the path to actuary or CPA. Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced. Spent several years as a coin dealer in the 1980's which gave me some insights into parts of the business collectors don't often see. In the past 13 years I've probably done 10,000+ hours in the analysis/research of PM and related markets.
<< <i>
<< <i>Oh goody. I love a good fight.
In this corner we have a guy who does it for a living. In that corner we have a guy who is sceptical if the sun will come up tomorrow.
Play fair lads. >>
My insurance policies are all paid up, so that's a bet on the sun. We all get our Vit D3 from the sun. So the sun better come up.
You have a ton of posts and an opinion constantly on many different asset classes. I don't know what you do for a living but you sure would be a great financial advisor !!!
I applied for positions in the financial world early and was rejected for being too honest...or not being willing to market investments to people who didn't need them. One insurance company told me I was so far off their rating charts (ie integrity/honesty) that they suggested I never consider a career in that field. Worked out ok as the US Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program appreciated those same faults and took me in. Did 10 years and qualified as submarine chief engineer. Next 20 years were spent in civilian power/combustion plants up to plant manager. Though trained in math and engineering, what I really did was critically analyze performance and operations. If I had to do it all over again I probably would have started off on the path to actuary or CPA. Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced. Spent several years as a coin dealer in the 1980's which gave me some insights into parts of the business collectors don't often see. In the past 13 years I've probably done 10,000+ hours in the analysis/research of PM and related markets. >>
"Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced."
Hellooo !!
Yes, that is always the goal.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>"Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced."
Hellooo !!
Yes, that is always the goal. >>
Maybe the goal publicized to the public, but not what the fat cats really want you to do. They want to seel you crap that makes them money.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Oh goody. I love a good fight.
In this corner we have a guy who does it for a living. In that corner we have a guy who is sceptical if the sun will come up tomorrow.
Play fair lads. >>
More like a salesman vs. an informed consumer.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
<< <i>
<< <i>"Financial advisor would never work as I'd only be able to sell products to people that they really needed, were top quality, and were properly priced."
Hellooo !!
Yes, that is always the goal. >>
Maybe the goal publicized to the public, but not what the fat cats really want you to do. They want to seel you crap that makes them money. >>
Sometimes there are products created by wall street that are crap no doubt.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose?
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
A broker gets paid when you buy and when sell at a loss. No skin in the game other than your repeat business.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. I did make that mistake once too. I recommended an item to my brother that I was already in. It ended up tanking and losing him $5K. I lost a lot more. Since I had recommended it, I ended up making him 100% whole....and learning a valuable lesson that recommending investments to family members is often a lose-lose. Never done it since. I sleep with a clear conscience too. One should not be any more successful than your clients if you are handling their investments. And no doubt that kind of mindset made me unemployable in the financial sector.....
<< <i>
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
A broker gets paid when you buy and when sell at a loss. No skin in the game other than your repeat business. >>
Thats a broker who charges comissions. They are dinosuars. Fee based accounts are different.
A flat fee as a % of managed assets is charged ......if the assets go up in value the advisor gets paid more. If the assets go down in value the advisor gets paid less. Much like a mutual fund and their internal expenses.
If the fund assets go up the fund company gets paid more....if the fund assets go down the fund company gets paid less.
It's always in the best interest of fee based advisors to grow the account ( should be in any event) and thus are on the same side of the table as the client. There is no incentive to place or sell s*&t.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. I did make that mistake once too. I recommended an item to my brother that I was already in. It ended up tanking and losing him $5K. I lost a lot more. Since I had recommended it, I ended up making him 100% whole....and learning a valuable lesson that recommending investments to family members is often a lose-lose. Never done it since. I sleep with a clear conscience too. One should not be any more successful than your clients if you are handling their investments. And no doubt that kind of mindset made me unemployable in the financial sector.....
Some frown on recommending stocks owned without providing a disclaimer.
Edited to add: I want to know if the guy pushing XYZ has a personal interest in seeing it bid up.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose $$ too....and on top of that probably your future business as well, as it should be. Simple enough.
<< <i>
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. I did make that mistake once too. I recommended an item to my brother that I was already in. It ended up tanking and losing him $5K. I lost a lot more. Since I had recommended it, I ended up making him 100% whole....and learning a valuable lesson that recommending investments to family members is often a lose-lose. Never done it since. I sleep with a clear conscience too. One should not be any more successful than your clients if you are handling their investments. And no doubt that kind of mindset made me unemployable in the financial sector.....
At my firm ( and their are plenty of others) if you have the experience you can build a flat fee based business as a % of assets being managed and trade along side your clients. I do it all the time.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>If I retain an adviser and he recommends I buy a stock and it tanks and I lose say $5000 or whatever , how much money does he lose? >>
Ideally, he loses at least $5,000 because he should be invested in that some security (or same market sector) to at least the same degree recommended to a client. I could never recommend something to a client that I don't already own. I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't want to own it. Now if I am buying and selling wholesale or to other brokers/dealers, it's basically may the best trader/investor win. >>
So an adviser who is 35 and has a long term aggressive growth profile should recommend the same investments to his 75 year old clients, to the same or similar degree that he invests in himself... and then wait for FINRA to hand him the beatdown?
I'm not sure that's a good plan.
<< <i>In my Bizzarro world if your client's account goes down, you should get nothing. If you can't make your client's account grow, then you either need to find different clients or change your investing model.
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose $$ too....and on top of that probably your future business as well, as it should be. Simple enough. >>
Its not that simple. Everything is not based on return ( and especially only getting paid if your clients account goes up !!....that is bizzare......and is not done anywhere I know of) .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>In my Bizzarro world if your client's account goes down, you should get nothing. If you can't make your client's account grow, then you either need to find different clients or change your investing model.
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose too. Simple enough. >>
The whole concept of financial advisers is another sin that can be laid at the feet of the Fed of course. Without 100 years of relentless inflation we wouldn't need any of them.
No need to beat the market if a year from now my dollar is worth more right?
Then you'd probably know that 99.9% of the rotten apples get weeded out.
Most of you sceptics seem to had the unfortunate luck of picking the 0.1% of those apples.
Let's hope it's not genetic
<< <i>It would be terrific if the people here that are sceptical of salesman's tactics had juuuust a little experience working in a financial services firm and had the longevity of bridging an economic cycle.
Then you'd probably know that 99.9% of the rotten apples get weeded out.
Most of you sceptics seem to had the unfortunate luck of picking the 0.1% of those apples.
Let's hope it's not genetic
Thank you and so true.
Here is why it is worthwhile to seek a knowledgeable, experienced, and trustworthy financial advisor.
Dalbar Study
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>In my Bizzarro world if your client's account goes down, you should get nothing. If you can't make your client's account grow, then you either need to find different clients or change your investing model.
The only disclaimer I would provide is that if you lose....I lose $$ too....and on top of that probably your future business as well, as it should be. Simple enough. >>
Wow, on what planet do you live in, or perhaps what commune. Sounds great, unfortunately most of us don't have fortune tellers or crystal balls that accurately can predict the future. Just imagine, applying that theory to farmers, cattleman or come to think of, anything that is tied into "mother natures" play. Reality check...those that don't perform, usually do not stay in business for very long.
The sizzle is off the PM steak. Get used to it.
Don't mistake a rising market for smarts. Luck and timing can make a moron look like Einstein.
Keep repeating that, and we might come to agreement at some point.
It's interesting that nobody seems to discuss any stock fundamentals like company earnings or profit - because it's all Fed-driven.
If you choose to step aside, you get called an idiot. So be it. I'll play when I'm ready, when bidask's clients have sold in a panic.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Just to state- I'm on neither side however if this discussion, had it taken place between 1985-2002, would have far fewer PM gurus touting their incendiary brilliance .
The sizzle is off the PM steak. Get used to it.
Don't mistake a rising market for smarts. Luck and timing can make a moron look like Einstein. >>
Very well stated!
<< <i>In a bull market every moron is a financial advisor, in a bear market no one needs one... >>
Thats it pretty much. The bad markets turn all the Einsteins into morons but the beauty of being a paid adviser is you still get that paycheck while your clients are bleeding out.
"Just stick with me , I have a system. We will turn things around. " said every adviser everywhere
The mantra of the financial advisor.
<< <i>"it'll come back"
The mantra of the financial advisor. >>
Along with his twin brother, "over the long term"...
<< <i>"it'll come back"
The mantra of the financial advisor. >>
When you're up to your ass in alligators, it's hard to convince yourself that draining the swamp is the best thing to do. Those who bought netflix/NFLX at $304 only to watch it tank to $67 had to have a lot of stones hoping it "would come back". Their patience did pay off. I wonder if those who bought Intercept/ICPT at $400 feel as lucky now that it's at $150.
<< <i>Fascinating reading. Probably a great lesson to realize that it's folly to make predictions and then take drastic measures with our savings and make all or nothing bets on those human prognostications.
None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays.
Yes indeed. The best wisdom there is.
Whatever everyone thinks is going to happen, something else will happen instead.
<< <i>.....Wow, on what planet do you live in, or perhaps what commune. Sounds great, unfortunately most of us don't have fortune tellers or crystal balls that accurately can predict the future. Just imagine, applying that theory to farmers, cattleman or come to think of, anything that is tied into "mother natures" play. Reality check...those that don't perform, usually do not stay in business for very long. >>
Well, at least the 2nd sentence is right....and the very reason why so many advisors aren't worth what they are being paid. Farmers, cattleman, etc. can take out their own insurance and hedges to protect them from calamities. Most of them probably do just fine with common sense.....that is, the few independent cattleman that are left that actually think for themselves.
That's exactly why I don't give out financial advice, handle investments for clients, etc. None of them know what's coming even if they convince their clients that they do. Over the long run their performances even out to no better than what you could do by investing yourself. If you handle other people's investments and make money while they lose, then maybe you should be in a commune where investment advice on securities isn't needed.
The sad part of the story is that those who don't perform, DO stay in business for FAR longer than they should. Ever hear of Bernie Madoff? He made lots of money for his clients over 20 yrs....only on paper though. You don't need years of steady gains to entice new customers to follow you. Many do it on a call of a lifetime (Prechter from 1982-1987) or having made the last good call. Watch when the stock market tops and some guy who has been out of it for 1-3 years all of a sudden becomes a guru that the media is tripping over to interview. No one cares that they were wrong for years...only that they called the TOP....or maybe called (or will call) the bottom in commodities. In the financial investing world you're as good as your last call. No one cares about all the calls before the last one as their collective memories are short. If your last call wasn't good....then make another one. Eventually you will get it right and clients will flock to you.
In a bull market every moron is a financial advisor .....I witnessed that in 2004-2006 when everyone at work had a financial advisor and were flipping real estate. They expected that to continue forever. Most of them had canned those same advisors by 2009. At that point they couldn't even tie their shoes.
Those same moronic advisors won't tell you when to get out when the peak has come and gone. Cost average down and all that stuff. You gotta be in it to win it! (ie just like the state lotteries).
The remaining 40% of U.S. households are most likely buying gold while they can.
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
Those same moronic advisors won't tell you when to get out when the peak has come and gone. Cost average down and all that stuff. You gotta be in it to win it! (ie just like the state lotteries).
In a bull market every moron is a gold and silver investor.....I witnessed that in 2008-2011 (1978-1980) when everyone was a stacker and flipping coins and bars. They expected that to continue forever. Most of them had slowed their buying by 2013 (1983) At that point they couldn't profitably flip
Those same stackers won't tell you when to get out when the peak has come and gone. Cost average down and all that stuff. You gotta be in it to win it! (ie just like the state lotteries).
not saying that's what I think, (dammit im a stacker too) but that's kind of what someone could potentially think about metals... see ya in 25 or 30 years for the next bubble
I hope it's sooner, I'd like to see a pop above $2000 and $50 and get out with some profits to spend and enjoy before I'm 6 feet under cuz I ain't getting any younger
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
If you think this was "volatility", I'm afraid that we haven't seen the real stuff yet.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I think that more permanent type damage has been done to the economy this time around. I think that loud sucking sound is deflation, and the only known way to neutralize deflation is to hyperinflate.
If you think this was "volatility", I'm afraid that we haven't seen the real stuff yet. >>
There is permanent damage to what was once the middle (working) class of America. Nary a dime of the $10 trillion dumped into the U.S. economy over the last 6 years ended up in the hands of what was once the middle (working) class and hence, low inflation in spite of it and 6 years of ZIRP.
No one really knows how America will do with 75% of the population being "low" income, paying no taxes, living on gov't aid, and with essentially zero net worth but we will find out. Soon.
Always Now.
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
<< <i>
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
>>
I was wrong about a "dollar collapse", selling my 401K for fears of confiscation, going all in metals (I actually sold metals before the run-up and crash), and wrong about the integrity of the capital markets over the long term.
Tyler
"How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he just doesn’t see?” - Bob Dylan
<< <i>Not sure how I stumbled on this but thought Id link. Enjoy the night all.
Always Now. >>
Thank you
<< <i>
<< <i>
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
>>
I was wrong about a "dollar collapse", selling my 401K for fears of confiscation, going all in metals (I actually sold metals before the run-up and crash), and wrong about the integrity of the capital markets over the long term.
Tyler >>
No worries. The "orchestration" was better than I thought too. That's not to say that there won't be a dollar collapse, 401k confiscation or the like in the future. Are we already on the road to serfdom? I guess we'll know when we get there.
Enjoy now, the future is coming.
<< <i>Forget stocks, the real crisis that is coming >>
This is basically what Armstrong's ECM capital flows model has been predicting. He's been right with the bursting of each bubble since 2000. The bond bubble bursting will coincide with sovereign debt crisis all around the world. It's going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Capital flows are already rushing into the US as sovereign debt crisis approach in Europe and emerging nations. It will continue until the US joins the debt implosion. 2016-2020 is Armstrong's estimate for all this to occur. 2015 will be the final hurrah for this current bubble in assets. Bonds and the SM are about the only ones left still to pop. Big investors are already hiding out in expensive art, rare coins, top end real estate, etc. as they get their money off the paper financial grid.
I never bet against the USA.
China, Russian Federation, India, Europe. Lol. Go invest your shekels there and go live there if you are sure the USA is imploding. See ya.
<< <i>I think the rest of the world is much more in financial peril than we are. Take a look around.
I never bet against the USA.
China, Russian Federation, India, Europe. Lol. Go invest your shekels there and go live there if you are sure the USA is imploding. See ya. >>
No, that won't work, apparently the whole world is ruined and there is nowhere to hide from the collapse on this planet. Better move to another one
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Enjoy it while we can
If you're looking for a new planet, try the one ruled by the Kanamits. I hear they prefer to serve man.
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Been there, done that, still have 90% of my clients and they all have higher net worth.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
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Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
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I was wrong about a "dollar collapse", selling my 401K for fears of confiscation, going all in metals (I actually sold metals before the run-up and crash), and wrong about the integrity of the capital markets over the long term.
Tyler >>
You will do better in the future because you seem to have the humility to learn from your mistake.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>1987, 1990-1992, 2000-2002, 2008-2009,
Been there, done that, still have 90% of my clients and they all have higher net worth. >>
Those aren't 120 yr debt wash out cycles....unless you were alive back in 1894. All those time frames you list above are all part of the 82 year rising stock market-rising bond prices (rising debt) cycle. No real washouts there...just minor corrections. 2016-2020 will be a very difficult period to maintain net worth, let alone increase it.
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<< <i>1987, 1990-1992, 2000-2002, 2008-2009,
Been there, done that, still have 90% of my clients and they all have higher net worth. >>
Those aren't 120 yr debt wash out cycles....unless you were alive back in 1894. All those time frames you list above are all part of the 82 year rising stock market-rising bond prices (rising debt) cycle. No real washouts there...just minor corrections. 2016-2020 will be a very difficult period to maintain net worth, let alone increase it. >>
Ok so where are you going to put your money between 2016-2020?
Let me guess ........gold!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.