Inequalities(?). Life is one big inequality. Show me where equal outcomes are fair.
It's trendy and so rive gauche to blame all societal ills on capitalism. I see it in the funny-papers around the world. All blame the capitalist. The system couldn't be failing because it's overburdened due to over-promising pig-liticians. No, no, and the Krugman's of society whine that even more money needs to be thrown into the trough for survivability and sustainability.
It is the "crony" part of capitalism that is to blame. And so is the "fairness" part of progressivism. Either way the middle class bears the burden. What happens when it no longer exits? (rhetorical)
<< <i>Inequalities(?). Life is one big inequality. Show me where equal outcomes are fair.
It's trendy and so rive gauche to blame all societal ills on capitalism. I see it in the funny-papers around the world. All blame the capitalist. The system couldn't be failing because it's overburdened due to over-promising pig-liticians. No, no, and the Krugman's of society whine that even more money needs to be thrown into the trough for survivability and sustainability.
It is the "crony" part of capitalism that is to blame. And so is the "fairness" part of progressivism. Either way the middle class bears the burden. What happens when it no longer exits? (rhetorical) >>
Capitalism is the best economic system devised by man. The evolution of the U.S. economy left half its citizens behind and that is unfortunate. Sure the crony part was, and is, an issue. The middle-class use to be 80% of the people in our great nation. Now it's about half that and contracting. Sure there was a big gap between upper-middle-class and lower-middle-class but everyone in the middle class could put a roof over their heads, food on the table, afford good health care, and take a little vacation now and then. We ain't going back to the '50s, '60s, and '70s. Where we are going looks kind of scary sometimes. Will we rise to the challenge again?
It is the "crony" part of capitalism that is to blame. And so is the "fairness" part of progressivism. Either way the middle class bears the burden. What happens when it no longer exits? (rhetorical)
East Germany, circa 1960
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Europe's problems are not at all due "internationalization", or economic differences but cultural difference. >>
Europe flourished because of cultural differences prior to the Unionization of Europe. >>
Many parts of Europe flourish today, just as do many parts if the USA. Many parts of Europe are depressed just as in the USA. Never has there been prosperity in every nook and cranny of the globe. Europes problems are not due to a common currency. Rather more to do with egregious social programs on an aging and declining population.
You should take a trip to Europe before the Dark Ages set in again.
Fascinating reading. Probably a great lesson to realize that it's folly to make predictions and then take drastic measures with our savings and make all or nothing bets on those human prognostications. None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays.
<< <i>Fascinating reading. Probably a great lesson to realize that it's folly to make predictions and then take drastic measures with our savings and make all or nothing bets on those human prognostications. None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays . >>
<< <i>Fascinating reading. Probably a great lesson to realize that it's folly to make predictions and then take drastic measures with our savings and make all or nothing bets on those human prognostications. None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays. >>
No one can predict the future, but can certainly evaluate facts that are available for public consumption such as changes in money supply and deficit spending. Generally the markets adjust to these facts and make a nice return for the wise and fools of those that bury their head in the sand.
copper is forecasting economic chaos once again, just as it did in 2007.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I cannot believe some of the posts in this thread. Really incredible ! >>
10 4.
And who is brainwashed by the overblown daily tabloid news. >>
Yup. They were saying the same types of things in summer of 2007. How did all that turn out for the financial and economic markets 1-2 yrs later. Someone always has to pay for having played.
<< <i>I cannot believe some of the posts in this thread. Really incredible ! >>
10 4.
And who is brainwashed by the overblown daily tabloid news. >>
Yup. They were saying the same types of things in summer of 2007. How did all that turn out for the financial and economic markets 1-2 yrs later. Someone always has to pay for having played. >>
As the saying goes: "Even a broken clock".....well you know the rest. BTW this thread is almost 4 years old .. how much longer do we have to wait before any of those prediction will materialize?
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>As the saying goes: "Even a broken clock".....well you know the rest. BTW this thread is almost 4 years old .. how much longer do we have to wait before any of those prediction will materialize? >>
Ask Japan. Abenomics is failing miserably. Yen is in a death slide while GDP slides 2% (Probably closer to 4% when juggled numbers are properly tallied). All would be a distant spectacle if they did not hold $3,000,000,000,000 if foreign reserves.
Of course Janet and friends can just print all of that up with a click and in the Charles Dodgson world (look it up), we will still be struggling to get up to 2% inflation.
<< <i>BTW this thread is almost 4 years old .. how much longer do we have to wait before any of those prediction will materialize? >>
Patience is a virtue. Not much longer.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I cannot believe some of the posts in this thread. Really incredible ! >>
10 4.
And who is brainwashed by the overblown daily tabloid news. >>
Yup. They were saying the same types of things in summer of 2007. How did all that turn out for the financial and economic markets 1-2 yrs later. Someone always has to pay for having played. >>
Who cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong?
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>TextWho cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Ah the smell of market arrogance and complacency. The Fed is an oracle and all is well with the financial world. Those that refused to overpay are fools and those with blinders are wizards.
Once again the masses are packed into cattle cars as the Wall Street hucksters steer the locomotive gingerly towards the apex of the cliff. After a quick bail, they raise a toast to comrades Bernanke and Geithner and smile as the ploy has once again succeeded!!!
<< <i>TextWho cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Ah the smell of market arrogance and complacency. The Fed is an oracle and all is well with the financial world. Those that refused to overpay are fools and those with blinders are wizards.
Once again the masses are packed into cattle cars as the Wall Street hucksters steer the locomotive gingerly towards the apex of the cliff. After a quick bail, they raise a toast to comrades Bernanke and Geithner and smile as the ploy has once again succeeded!!! >>
You know what arrogance is ? A self professed know it all like you who cannot admit they have been wrong, learn from their mistakes, and move forward and try a different approach.
You post BS all day long here and have nothing to show for it.
You are the huckster my friend.
You have been playing the same tune for years and have been missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history !
That is an apparent fact.
You would not know a buying opportunity if it hit you in the arse!
Why? You have no humility to admit your wrong.
Deer in headlights.
You are a classic deer in headlights when it comes to investing .
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
You know what arrogance is ? A self professed know it all like you who cannot admit they have been wrong, learn from their mistakes, and move forward and try a different approach.
You post BS all day long here and have nothing to show for it.
You are the huckster my friend.
You have been playing the same tune for years and have been missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history !
That is an apparent fact.
You would not know a buying opportunity if it hit you in the arse!
Why? You have no humility to admit your wrong.
Deer in headlights.
You are a classic deer in headlights when it comes to investing .
Interesting post. Being wrong is different than refusing to play in an obviously rigged casino. The stock market is rigged, and yes - it's been an impressive "run". Congrats on your luck.
The fact is that you are castigating someone for not participating in a rigged market. Maybe not buying in has been a mistake. So be it.
My eyes are wide open and I can acknowledge that your stock market business has been great because of $trillions in QE. Not many people knew in advance how far the Fed was going to go. Maybe you did, but I didn't. The fact that you make money from selling stocks to your clients doesn't give me many warm fuzzies when you make a post like this.
We see things differently. So be it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>You know what arrogance is ? A self professed know it all like you who cannot admit they have been wrong, learn from their mistakes, and move forward and try a different approach.
You post BS all day long here and have nothing to show for it.
You are the huckster my friend.
You have been playing the same tune for years and have been missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history !
That is an apparent fact.
You would not know a buying opportunity if it hit you in the arse!
Why? You have no humility to admit your wrong.
Deer in headlights.
You are a classic deer in headlights when it comes to investing .
Interesting post. Being wrong is different than refusing to play in an obviously rigged casino. The stock market is rigged, and yes - it's been an impressive "run". Congrats on your luck.
The fact is that you are castigating someone for not participating in a rigged market. Maybe not buying in has been a mistake. So be it.
My eyes are wide open and I can acknowledge that your stock market business has been great because of $trillions in QE. Not many people knew in advance how far the Fed was going to go. Maybe you did, but I didn't. The fact that you make money from selling stocks to your clients doesn't give me many warm fuzzies when you make a post like this.
We see things differently. So be it. >>
im no more an insider than you when it comes to fed moves. We play in the same arena. The differnce is I dedicate 10 hours a day 5 days a week at this and I do a lot more than'sell stocks'.
Money is made and lost everyday in the arena.
Often I invest along side my clients as well as being a fiduciary.
Your problem is you broad brush all those in the industry and have these fantastic notions like everything is rigged thus you talk yourself out of investing when really I think it'such deeper than that ......
And because you do this honestly your real problem is your to cheap to pay for advice, so you put on this front that everything is rigged.
You really only hurt yourself ,
Look it's ok to say I am a deer in headlights or to admit you don't know what your doing as far as asset allocation or say I'm afraid of the volatility in stocks. Get some advice from someone you DO trust!
But to come on this board and give the advice you've given on cashing in ones retirement plan and what you posted in this thread and others regards your assertions about asset allocation is really off base and you have hurt people who followed ' your advice'....you really don't know what your talking about.
Get some humility man and admit your mistakes.
I attribute much of my success to being willing to admit when I'm wrong and taking a different course of action.
You and RR and MGlicker are like broken records.😊
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
bidask....well said...you took the words right out of my mouth and I suspect that some posters on this board, who do not subscribe to the overblown tabloid conspiracy's, are in agreement with you.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
im no more an insider than you when it comes to fed moves. We play in the same arena. The differnce is I dedicate 10 hours a day 5 days a week at this and I do a lot more than'sell stocks'.
Money is made and lost everyday in the arena.
Often I invest along side my clients as well as being a fiduciary.
Your problem is you broad brush all those in the industry and have these fantastic notions like everything is rigged thus you talk yourself out of investing when really I think it'such deeper than that ......
And because you do this honestly your real problem is your to cheap to pay for advice, so you put on this front that everything is rigged.
You really only hurt yourself ,
Look it's ok to say I am a deer in headlights or to admit you don't know what your doing as far as asset allocation or say I'm afraid of the volatility in stocks. Get some advice from someone you DO trust!
But to come on this board and give the advice you've given on cashing in ones retirement plan and what you posted in this thread and others regards your assertions about asset allocation is really off base and you have hurt people who followed ' your advice'....you really don't know what your talking about.
Get some humility man and admit your mistakes.
I attribute much of my success to being willing to admit when I'm wrong and taking a different course of action.
You and RR and MGlicker are like broken records.😊
Frankly, I'm not impressed. Your advice is 20:20 hindsight. If there's a humility problem here, it's you. If there's been a broken record here, it's you.
Your "arena" is rigged and you won't even admit it, maybe you're so brainwashed that you don't even realize it. In your fiduciary capacity, do you advise your paying customers to purchase financial instruments on which you collect a commission, in addition to being paid to offer your advice? Since we're being personal here, I'd like to be crystal-clear about your motives.
Daring me, or anyone else to buy into this stock market by suggesting that I'm scared of a little volatility is simply juvenile. Suggesting that I don't understand asset allocation is also simply a scare tactic. I don't need insults to motivate my investment strategy, and to make these kinds of statements does show some desperation. Don't count on me as a client - you haven't earned my attention.
Taking your approach, when the stock market does crash - and it will - I promise you that I'm going to remind you of this little conversation, every chance I get.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
""" In your fiduciary capacity, do you advise your paying customers to purchase financial instruments on which you collect a commission, in addition to being paid to offer your advice? Since we're being personal here, I'd like to be crystal-clear about your motives."""
<< <i> Who cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Who says I lost on out serious 401K money making opportunities in stocks from 2011-2014. You say that based on what knowledge of my investments? I say different. You also paint a broad canvas suggesting that summer 2007-fall 2011 was a "nothing" period for precious metals and commodities. Get over it. They did well. I was locked in to all that back from Sept 2002-April 2004 when the bulk of my purchases were made.
What matters is that the a cycle that ended in 2007 looks a lot like the setup we're seeing now in 2014/2015. It could go all the way through 2015. But, it will end very badly...just like 2007-2009 did. Maybe even worse. I've been out of the main stock market since the first 5 wave expanded wedge showed up in September 2014. We now have an even bigger one that's 5 months long...sitting atop a 16 year megaphone. Feel free to ride the Dow to 36,000 without me. Who cares about the summer of 2007? Generally, the same people that follow business and economic cycles.....that's who. The sheeple don't follow these cycles...they just follow the herd. Bidask is so entrenched in THE rigged financial system he cannot see the forest for the trees. I'd like to know how BidAsk positioned and invested for his clients from summer 2007 to spring 2009. I suspect he would tell us that he got out of the stock market in October 2007 and then went all-in in on commodities. And now that we had 30 year out-performance of the stock market vs. the commodity and PM sectors in 2014 that somehow this is going to continue on? As much as BidAsk probably tired of the 12 year gold bull market from 1999-2011 (and being proven wrong year after year) it's also equally tiring to hear the same sermon from him on how stocks are great and PMs are just speculative trash. There are things out there called cycles. Some of us follow them. Sometimes they extend for no good reason. Enjoy your lofty perch. The 120 year cycle bottom is still out there....and overdue. It has the potential to rival Sept 2008. Sept-Oct 2014 was the warmup act that currently points to a S&P of <1750.
Taking your approach, when the stock market does crash - and it will - I promise you that I'm going to remind you of this little conversation, every chance I get.
Jmski52, the perma-stock bulls might become conspicuously absent from the PM's/economic forum when that time does occur. This "greatest bull market in history" is winding up for the final hand off from the hucksters to J6P. The sad thing is that J6P hasn't participated in much of the run up from 2009 after they got hammered in 2008. They are beginning to buy into the ruse and will suffer yet another 2008 type calamity. Has there even been a 16 year expanding triangle in stock market that ended well? If it is going to end well, then what's the new business/economic model paradigm currently in play that is powering all this optimism...other than tens of $Trillions of Central Bank money?
well for comparing members, somewhere there is an asset allocation thread, though not sure who all had the guts to post their percentages.
It's likely that the most content are those who have never been doing better than right now, and the most miserable are those hoping and betting on a system failure for their profits
<< <i> are those hoping and betting on a system failure for their profits >>
It is actually a difficult conundrum. While one does not wish for financial meltdown, it should not influence investment decisions.
Those that shorted equities heavily in 1999 and 2007 profited handsomely. Economy for the rank and file has been in the toilet since, but few food riots and cardboard shantytowns resulted.
We are in a difficult boom and bust investment environment where trends are much more influenced by a handful of oligarchs than a broad and healthy market. Much interest around the globe in keeping interest rates at well under the inflation rate and reaping cap gain taxes from a overheated stock market.
One central bank is influential, 7 central banks are nearly invincible. Nearly is the key though because economic laws can never, ever be broken. A quintupling of international money supply can only have one ending and it is not pretty. As the tabloids cry deflation a massive, destructive inflation is bubbling will hit like a tsunami.
<< <i><< SO I need to cash out my 401k while the market's up and buy metal?
I would strongly recommend against that. >>
I was joking. Although some members here did just that and have not looked back.
I did cash out of all my retirement accounts, and I will explain why. The following is exactly why I started thinking about it, to wit:
I'm glad to hear you were joking, but I'm going to perseverate on this a bit because it's so massively ill-advised, in case anyone reading this has doubts.
Cashing out a 401(k) to invest in something different is apallingly tax-inefficient. 10% penalty for early withdrawal, 30-40% automatic withholding for taxes, they're looking at a 50% haircut before they even start. So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
I do have an MBA, in Finance - so let me see if I can help. The 10% tax penalty is real. Now, consider the annual inflation tax for every single year you leave the 401K in dollar-denominated paper, the inflation tax is implemented every single year on the same assets in your retirement account - not just a one time tax, but every single year. The government understates inflation - do you know why? I rest my case.
The 30-40% automatic witholding is relative. Can you figure this out, or do I need to help you? Ok, I'll help you. What do you think that your tax rate will be when you withdraw the funds after you retire? Go ahead and speculate about what that rate might be. Have you heard anyone continually harping about how taxes will need to increase in order to fund our massively overspent entitlement programs from this point forward? How much government spending do you think needs to be cut, and how much do you think they will actually cut? Let me think for a moment. When they say "cut", they really mean frozen at today's exorbitant spending levels that are generating deficits 4X faster than Bush did. If you think that the NEA sit-in at the Wisconsin statehouse is indicative of what's coming, you are right. The entitlement groups are always going to push for more spending and more benefits no matter what the budget says.
Anyhow, back to the 30-40% automatic witholding. Any way you slice it, you will pay income taxes on the profits from your retirement plan when you cash it in. My assumption has been that those tax rates are going higher, in spite of the fact that you will supposedly be in a lower tax bracket at the time you retire. In other words, it's going to be a wash, at best. At worst it could very well be a dumb, dumb, dumb idea to leave your assets where you can only have access to them after the entity you pay to keep them has jumped through all the bureaucratic and regulatory hoops that they keep piling on. (If they are still solvent when you want your money, that is.)
So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
Don't worry - I did cash out, and those particular funds have more than doubled already. I stopped believing in the paper fiasco and now it's very easy to see what they keep doing to the currency and the stock market. The conventional "be a good little citizen" mantra that the government slips into your coffee every waking moment only applies to you. It doesn't apply to the unions, the wall streeters, the government itself - the Dodds, the Raines, the Geithners, the Daschels, the Sandy Burgers, the Hasterts, the whole Illinois machine, the Rangels - the gollums who worm their way into the system and use it for personal advantage. You have to protect yourself. Nobody else is going to do it - least of all, the government. I am sorry to come off sounding severe, but I think reality can't be ignored any more. Instead of changing their attitude, they have stepped on the gas. I am convinced that they know what they are doing.
***** Note, I'm not recommending that anyone cash out 100% all at one time, but I do think it's a very good idea to ease out and to not take forever to do it. Always move in increments. Everyone has an opinion, and this is the countervailing opinion. >>
what a bunch of hogwash!
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Now, consider the annual inflation tax for every single year you leave the 401K in dollar-denominated paper, the inflation tax is implemented every single year on the same assets in your retirement account - not just a one time tax, but every single year.
I don't see your point.
Yes, I know. You are totally into the game that the banks and financial industry wants you to be into. What I can't believe is that you don't see my point.
These subsequent posts illustrate my point entirely:
<< My 401K just FINALLY got back to my pre 2008 crash balance. Almost 3 years in idle.
How much will the next hit be? Will I ever recover after the next one? >>
I am still not back to the 2008 level.
It doesn't matter much if the "free money" that comes from matching funds disappears right along with your earned contributions when the market gets hammered. Then, to keep the little fishies from panicking they inflate the stock market with stimulus money and expect you to believe that the money isn't being destroyed.
ranshdow, I don't know what's absurd about seeing reality for what it is, and then stepping aside when you see a freight train bearing down on you. Yes, it's true that we've been hearing dire predictions for 40 years, and you tend to become conditioned. On the other hand, why do you suppose gold has risen 10 years running? Luck?
Why would anyone need a custodial Pimco account if they're grown-up enough to manage their own money? That's the fallacy we've all been taught - that the Timmy Geithners of the world are so much smarter than us "little people". I'll leave it at that.
I do think it's a backhanded slap to say that anyone in charge of their own assets is "speculating". Tell that to someone who has been financially hobbled and who still keeps his assets in a "custodial" relationship with a large financial institution because of the lure of "free money" as an incentive to stay in a losing relationship. Why is there a penalty for withdrawing your own retirement funds before retirement age from one of these plans? That thought process is somewhat ironic, based on the results of the past 10 years.
Keep your own money, manage it yourself - and if you come out ahead it is speculation. Let some "custodian" manage it for a fee, lose a big chunk of your assets, get your butt kicked - and that is called a "no brainer".
How many more years of corruption and mismanagement in the financial industry and in big government will it take before you see my point, ranshdow? >>
yeah you saw reality alright ..... You lost huge opportunity cost !
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>1jester, let me be the first to point out that your decisions are not without risk. Ranshdow would call it speculating. I call it "playing heads-up ball". There may come a day when the system is repaired, trust is restored, and integrity comes back into the system. At some point, the government won't be determining who the winners and losings are going to be. Until then, I've stepped aside, totally.
The biggest risks that I see aren't market-driven, they are government and banking cartel-driven. Everything they do is designed to fleece the innocent. There is no integrity and no good will involved. >>
totally idiotic!
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>percyb, your comments got me started up again on the issue of risk and speculation, and those should be discussed further. Risk is definable in a quantitative way. Speculation is acting upon your best guess, and that's what I do all the time. Risk doesn't equate to recklessness. Risk doesn't mean "to wager".
When people talk about risk management and act as if ownership of paper assets can be risk-adjusted and optimized for yield, they are selling the same crap that got us all into this hot water in the first place. First-order derivatives become 2nd-order derivatives and then they become snake oil. I've simply had enough of the lies they use simply to generate commissions and fees. They are not as smart as they want you to believe.
Smartest guys in the room. Remember that? Same thing.
My contention is that joe 6 pack isn't that dumb, and that the risk managers who went to Ivy League schools to learn option pricing models and arbitrage in order to get jobs on wall street are the ones who need much more scrutiny. The truth needs to get out about who is doing what to whom, and why. >>
more idiocy!
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>The entire Ponzi financial system has had the risk permanently distorted by manufactured low interest rates over the past 15 years. This is what those $200 TRILL in otc interest swaps owned by our top 5 banks has done....it's totally miscategorized the risks in the markets. And because of that investors have taken on risks based on purely imaginery numbers.
Until the US bank's $200 TRILL in IR Swaps gets negated, as well as what's owned by the rest of the world's banks and funds (potentially another $700 TRILL), then any determination of risk is quite meaningless. Risk cannot adequately be defined today when so many entities are not coming clean with what they hold. And in that environment it's no wonder that PM's and commodities have moved towards the top of the investment chain displacing questionable paper in the process.
roadrunner[/q} did you dollar cost average your pm's on the way down?
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>derryb, I don't think you're delusional and I wish you all the nimbleness and luck in the world. Count me as one of the lazy ones at this juncture. You can win at paper or lose at physical, no doubt.
My concern would be the fact - that now the frauds have been exposed in spades, and why anyone would play "chicken" with their money when they already know that the deck isn't just stacked, but heavily stacked against them - that truly bewilders me.
I give a black swan event that collapses the dollar along with the world monetary system a 5% probability. I really don't think that the financial movers and shakers in the world are very competant, nor are most of the political top dogs.
I anticipate and fully expect that the nominal value of my precious metal holdings could easily be cut by half overnight. That's the mental adjustment I'm making. At the same time, I expect that the stock market will concurrently take a spill and lose as much as 75% of it's nominal value during the same occurance that trashes my metal holdings. I suspect that both phenomena will happen with maybe a 20% probability. It's all relative - I don't know anyone who will get away unscathed.
The only other possible scenario is for the stock market to increase another 50% in nominal value while the precious metals double again as retirement dollars get further wiped out. I give that a 75% chance at this point.
It concerns me that any paper claims on a pool of precious metals or rights to those precious metals can be defaulted on. The rules got demolished when the decision was made to give a $trillion to the bankers, and the rules got demolished when they bailed out everyone and his brother who should've been jailed instead. The rules don't apply to Tim Geithner or Chris Dodd. They don't apply to Hilary Clinton or Sandy Burger. The rules are non-existant for Alan Greenspan and Jamie Dimon and Dick Fuld. They don't apply for Rahm Immanuel or Dennis Hastert or Tom Daschel.
The rules no longer apply, especially in the markets. You just don't know it yet. Why on Earth would you still think that they do, or that you would ever see it coming Call me "ultra-conservative". >>
neither of your scenarios panned out
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i> Who cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Who says I lost on out serious 401K money making opportunities in stocks from 2011-2014. You say that based on what knowledge of my investments? I say different. You also paint a broad canvas suggesting that summer 2007-fall 2011 was a "nothing" period for precious metals and commodities. Get over it. They did well. I was locked in to all that back from Sept 2002-April 2004 when the bulk of my purchases were made.
What matters is that the a cycle that ended in 2007 looks a lot like the setup we're seeing now in 2014/2015. It could go all the way through 2015. But, it will end very badly...just like 2007-2009 did. Maybe even worse. I've been out of the main stock market since the first 5 wave expanded wedge showed up in September 2014. We now have an even bigger one that's 5 months long...sitting atop a 16 year megaphone. Feel free to ride the Dow to 36,000 without me. Who cares about the summer of 2007? Generally, the same people that follow business and economic cycles.....that's who. The sheeple don't follow these cycles...they just follow the herd. Bidask is so entrenched in THE rigged financial system he cannot see the forest for the trees. I'd like to know how BidAsk positioned and invested for his clients from summer 2007 to spring 2009. I suspect he would tell us that he got out of the stock market in October 2007 and then went all-in in on commodities. And now that we had 30 year out-performance of the stock market vs. the commodity and PM sectors in 2014 that somehow this is going to continue on? As much as BidAsk probably tired of the 12 year gold bull market from 1999-2011 (and being proven wrong year after year) it's also equally tiring to hear the same sermon from him on how stocks are great and PMs are just speculative trash. There are things out there called cycles. Some of us follow them. Sometimes they extend for no good reason. Enjoy your lofty perch. The 120 year cycle bottom is still out there....and overdue. It has the potential to rival Sept 2008. Sept-Oct 2014 was the warmup act that currently points to a S&P of <1750.
Taking your approach, when the stock market does crash - and it will - I promise you that I'm going to remind you of this little conversation, every chance I get.
Jmski52, the perma-stock bulls might become conspicuously absent from the PM's/economic forum when that time does occur. This "greatest bull market in history" is winding up for the final hand off from the hucksters to J6P. The sad thing is that J6P hasn't participated in much of the run up from 2009 after they got hammered in 2008. They are beginning to buy into the ruse and will suffer yet another 2008 type calamity. Has there even been a 16 year expanding triangle in stock market that ended well? If it is going to end well, then what's the new business/economic model paradigm currently in play that is powering all this optimism...other than tens of $Trillions of Central Bank money?
Yeah and Yellowstone is long overdue for another cataclysmic eruption, time to evacuate the world. Errors have been made. Others will be blamed.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
The only opinion that matters is the one that is correct. However, one should objectively weigh them all.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>well for comparing members, somewhere there is an asset allocation thread, though not sure who all had the guts to post their percentages.
It's likely that the most content are those who have never been doing better than right now, and the most miserable are those hoping and betting on a system failure for their profits >>
It doesn't have anything to do money for which one owns it all. So how are the stewards doings?
The system has failed 70% of America and that number grows daily while the percentage at the top holding most of the assets shrinks daily.
We've off-shored tens of millions of jobs at under $100/week and more daily.
We've reduced the quality and quantity of goods and services everywhere.
We've frozen and cut pay and benefits everywhere possible.
I could go on and on but the bottom line is this: We've mortgaged the future of the country so those select few who own "the system" can further enrich themselves.
Some hold the keys to the kingdom. Keep counting your profits. I'm sure that should keep you most content.
I do not come on the precious metals forum to prognosticate and make wild predictions about stocks or bonds or the financial system.
I only advocated diversification relative to understanding a individual's tolerance for risk.
I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ......
You doomsdayers should stick to precious metals and coins cause the rest you really don't know what your your talking about.
But if you do make and continue to make idiotic comments are you surprised your being challenged?
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
No, you keep pushing your BS .... and that is really what it is.
So in the next market crash you can say anything you want cause in doing this for 34 years as a professional financial advisor for a major Wall Street firm I have seen it all and been apart of the ups and downs, all different asset classes, I won't be surprised by anything.
But I will keep an open mind, continue to learn, and admit when I'm wrong and make adjustments for myself and clients.
I will certainly continue to rely on that real life experience.😊
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Bidask, in your fiduciary capacity, do you advise your paying customers to purchase financial instruments on which you collect a commission, in addition to being paid to offer your advice? Since we're being personal here, I'd like to be crystal-clear about your motives.
<<Crickets chirping>>
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Bidask, in your fiduciary capacity, do you advise your paying customers to purchase financial instruments on which you collect a commission, in addition to being paid to offer your advice? Since we're being personal here, I'd like to be crystal-clear about your motives.
<<Crickets chirping>> >>
As a fiduciary I am given discretion as to what to buy and sell for my clients as I see fit. Both bonds and stocks (mostly stocks the last few years)
They pay a ongoing fee.
Then I have clients who want advice and pay a ongoing fee but they want to be apart of the decision.
Then I have very few clients who pay a straight commission .
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ...... >>
Why the angst? Market is going your way (for now) commissions are non refundable even when your recommendations go bust, and the Fed will no doubt bail out your employer during the next crisis, maybe for the second or third time.
I have no axe to grind in the ongoing back and forth with bidask, however, as someone who subscribes to a balanced portfolio that is risk based, I think that virtually all financial advisors would subscribe to that theory. One does not need to be in a position whereby their job or income depends upon that to subscribe to what is a very mainstream idea.
I do not choose to bash those who are "stackers" as that is their specific choice. The fundamental issue is that metals are a store of value and have no ability to generate income, nor grow dynamically on their own. In times of instability there is a flight to metals for safety, however, given that the one place in the world the economy is growing and unemployment is the USA, I would be hesitant to abandon either the dollar or the markets here in terms of investments.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
So, four days left till the next COMEX delivery process begins.
For silver: Open contracts for approximately 308 million ounces with an inventory of only 65 million ounces available for delivery, roughly 5 ounces contracted for every ounce available.
For gold: Open contracts for approximately 16 million ounces with an inventory of only 869,000 available for delivery, roughly 20 ounces contracted for every ounce available.
"Never in the past has this much open interest been still outstanding with deliverable inventory as low as it is."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Comments
It's trendy and so rive gauche to blame all societal ills on capitalism. I see it in the funny-papers around the world. All blame the capitalist. The system couldn't be failing because it's overburdened due to over-promising pig-liticians. No, no, and the Krugman's of society whine that even more money needs to be thrown into the trough for survivability and sustainability.
It is the "crony" part of capitalism that is to blame. And so is the "fairness" part of progressivism. Either way the middle class bears the burden. What happens when it no longer exits? (rhetorical)
<< <i>Inequalities(?). Life is one big inequality. Show me where equal outcomes are fair.
It's trendy and so rive gauche to blame all societal ills on capitalism. I see it in the funny-papers around the world. All blame the capitalist. The system couldn't be failing because it's overburdened due to over-promising pig-liticians. No, no, and the Krugman's of society whine that even more money needs to be thrown into the trough for survivability and sustainability.
It is the "crony" part of capitalism that is to blame. And so is the "fairness" part of progressivism. Either way the middle class bears the burden. What happens when it no longer exits? (rhetorical) >>
Capitalism is the best economic system devised by man. The evolution of the U.S. economy left half its citizens behind and that is unfortunate. Sure the crony part was, and is, an issue. The middle-class use to be 80% of the people in our great nation. Now it's about half that and contracting. Sure there was a big gap between upper-middle-class and lower-middle-class but everyone in the middle class could put a roof over their heads, food on the table, afford good health care, and take a little vacation now and then. We ain't going back to the '50s, '60s, and '70s. Where we are going looks kind of scary sometimes. Will we rise to the challenge again?
East Germany, circa 1960
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Europe's problems are not at all due "internationalization", or economic differences but cultural difference. >>
Europe flourished because of cultural differences prior to the Unionization of Europe. >>
Many parts of Europe flourish today, just as do many parts if the USA. Many parts of Europe are depressed just as in the USA. Never has there been prosperity in every nook and cranny of the globe. Europes problems are not due to a common currency. Rather more to do with egregious social programs on an aging and declining population.
You should take a trip to Europe before the Dark Ages set in again.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> Inequalities(?). Life is one big inequality. Show me where equal outcomes are fair. >>
Amen !
None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays.
<< <i>Fascinating reading. Probably a great lesson to realize that it's folly to make predictions and then take drastic measures with our savings and make all or nothing bets on those human prognostications.
None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays .
Mmmmmmmm
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Fascinating reading. Probably a great lesson to realize that it's folly to make predictions and then take drastic measures with our savings and make all or nothing bets on those human prognostications.
None of us know the future, when we convince ourselves we do...we should probably check ourselves into Bellview, but not before going to Ruby Tuesdays.
No one can predict the future, but can certainly evaluate facts that are available for public consumption such as changes in money supply and deficit spending. Generally the markets adjust to these facts and make a nice return for the wise and fools of those that bury their head in the sand.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>copper is forecasting economic chaos once again, just as it did in 2007. >>
Is that a fact?
Copper prices
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I cannot believe some of the posts in this thread. Really incredible ! >>
10 4.
And who is brainwashed by the overblown daily tabloid news.
As long as the Krugmans and Grubers get theirs on the front end before the leftovers are re-distributed.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>I cannot believe some of the posts in this thread. Really incredible ! >>
10 4.
And who is brainwashed by the overblown daily tabloid news.
Yup. They were saying the same types of things in summer of 2007. How did all that turn out for the financial and economic markets 1-2 yrs later. Someone always has to pay for having played.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I cannot believe some of the posts in this thread. Really incredible ! >>
10 4.
And who is brainwashed by the overblown daily tabloid news.
Yup. They were saying the same types of things in summer of 2007. How did all that turn out for the financial and economic markets 1-2 yrs later. Someone always has to pay for having played. >>
As the saying goes: "Even a broken clock".....well you know the rest. BTW this thread is almost 4 years old .. how much longer do we have to wait before any of those prediction will materialize?
<< <i>As the saying goes: "Even a broken clock".....well you know the rest. BTW this thread is almost 4 years old .. how much longer do we have to wait before any of those prediction will materialize? >>
Ask Japan. Abenomics is failing miserably. Yen is in a death slide while GDP slides 2% (Probably closer to 4% when juggled numbers are properly tallied). All would be a distant spectacle if they did not hold $3,000,000,000,000 if foreign reserves.
Of course Janet and friends can just print all of that up with a click and in the Charles Dodgson world (look it up), we will still be struggling to get up to 2% inflation.
Keep your foil hats tightly wrapped good fellows.
<< <i>BTW this thread is almost 4 years old .. how much longer do we have to wait before any of those prediction will materialize? >>
Patience is a virtue. Not much longer.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I cannot believe some of the posts in this thread. Really incredible ! >>
10 4.
And who is brainwashed by the overblown daily tabloid news.
Yup. They were saying the same types of things in summer of 2007. How did all that turn out for the financial and economic markets 1-2 yrs later. Someone always has to pay for having played. >>
Who cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>TextWho cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Ah the smell of market arrogance and complacency. The Fed is an oracle and all is well with the financial world. Those that refused to overpay are fools and those with blinders are wizards.
Once again the masses are packed into cattle cars as the Wall Street hucksters steer the locomotive gingerly towards the apex of the cliff. After a quick bail, they raise a toast to comrades Bernanke and Geithner and smile as the ploy has once again succeeded!!!
Over and over again.......
<< <i>
<< <i>TextWho cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Ah the smell of market arrogance and complacency. The Fed is an oracle and all is well with the financial world. Those that refused to overpay are fools and those with blinders are wizards.
Once again the masses are packed into cattle cars as the Wall Street hucksters steer the locomotive gingerly towards the apex of the cliff. After a quick bail, they raise a toast to comrades Bernanke and Geithner and smile as the ploy has once again succeeded!!! >>
You know what arrogance is ? A self professed know it all like you who cannot admit they have been wrong, learn from their mistakes, and move forward and try a different approach.
You post BS all day long here and have nothing to show for it.
You are the huckster my friend.
You have been playing the same tune for years and have been missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history !
That is an apparent fact.
You would not know a buying opportunity if it hit you in the arse!
Why? You have no humility to admit your wrong.
Deer in headlights.
You are a classic deer in headlights when it comes to investing .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
You post BS all day long here and have nothing to show for it.
You are the huckster my friend.
You have been playing the same tune for years and have been missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history !
That is an apparent fact.
You would not know a buying opportunity if it hit you in the arse!
Why? You have no humility to admit your wrong.
Deer in headlights.
You are a classic deer in headlights when it comes to investing .
Interesting post. Being wrong is different than refusing to play in an obviously rigged casino. The stock market is rigged, and yes - it's been an impressive "run". Congrats on your luck.
The fact is that you are castigating someone for not participating in a rigged market. Maybe not buying in has been a mistake. So be it.
My eyes are wide open and I can acknowledge that your stock market business has been great because of $trillions in QE. Not many people knew in advance how far the Fed was going to go. Maybe you did, but I didn't. The fact that you make money from selling stocks to your clients doesn't give me many warm fuzzies when you make a post like this.
We see things differently. So be it.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>You know what arrogance is ? A self professed know it all like you who cannot admit they have been wrong, learn from their mistakes, and move forward and try a different approach.
You post BS all day long here and have nothing to show for it.
You are the huckster my friend.
You have been playing the same tune for years and have been missing out on one of the greatest bull markets in history !
That is an apparent fact.
You would not know a buying opportunity if it hit you in the arse!
Why? You have no humility to admit your wrong.
Deer in headlights.
You are a classic deer in headlights when it comes to investing .
Interesting post. Being wrong is different than refusing to play in an obviously rigged casino. The stock market is rigged, and yes - it's been an impressive "run". Congrats on your luck.
The fact is that you are castigating someone for not participating in a rigged market. Maybe not buying in has been a mistake. So be it.
My eyes are wide open and I can acknowledge that your stock market business has been great because of $trillions in QE. Not many people knew in advance how far the Fed was going to go. Maybe you did, but I didn't. The fact that you make money from selling stocks to your clients doesn't give me many warm fuzzies when you make a post like this.
We see things differently. So be it. >>
im no more an insider than you when it comes to fed moves.
We play in the same arena. The differnce is I dedicate 10 hours a day 5 days a week at this and I do a lot more than'sell stocks'.
Money is made and lost everyday in the arena.
Often I invest along side my clients as well as being a fiduciary.
Your problem is you broad brush all those in the industry and have these fantastic notions like everything is rigged thus you talk yourself
out of investing when really I think it'such deeper than that ......
And because you do this honestly your real problem is your to cheap to pay for advice, so you put on this front that everything is rigged.
You really only hurt yourself ,
Look it's ok to say I am a deer in headlights or to admit you don't know what your doing as far as asset allocation or say I'm afraid of the volatility in stocks. Get some advice from someone you DO trust!
But to come on this board and give the advice you've given on cashing in ones retirement plan and what you posted in this thread and others regards your assertions about asset allocation is really off base and you have hurt people who followed ' your advice'....you really don't know what your talking about.
Get some humility man and admit your mistakes.
I attribute much of my success to being willing to admit when I'm wrong and
taking a different course of action.
You and RR and MGlicker are like broken records.😊
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
We play in the same arena. The differnce is I dedicate 10 hours a day 5 days a week at this and I do a lot more than'sell stocks'.
Money is made and lost everyday in the arena.
Often I invest along side my clients as well as being a fiduciary.
Your problem is you broad brush all those in the industry and have these fantastic notions like everything is rigged thus you talk yourself
out of investing when really I think it'such deeper than that ......
And because you do this honestly your real problem is your to cheap to pay for advice, so you put on this front that everything is rigged.
You really only hurt yourself ,
Look it's ok to say I am a deer in headlights or to admit you don't know what your doing as far as asset allocation or say I'm afraid of the volatility in stocks. Get some advice from someone you DO trust!
But to come on this board and give the advice you've given on cashing in ones retirement plan and what you posted in this thread and others regards your assertions about asset allocation is really off base and you have hurt people who followed ' your advice'....you really don't know what your talking about.
Get some humility man and admit your mistakes.
I attribute much of my success to being willing to admit when I'm wrong and
taking a different course of action.
You and RR and MGlicker are like broken records.😊
Frankly, I'm not impressed. Your advice is 20:20 hindsight. If there's a humility problem here, it's you. If there's been a broken record here, it's you.
Your "arena" is rigged and you won't even admit it, maybe you're so brainwashed that you don't even realize it. In your fiduciary capacity, do you advise your paying customers to purchase financial instruments on which you collect a commission, in addition to being paid to offer your advice? Since we're being personal here, I'd like to be crystal-clear about your motives.
Daring me, or anyone else to buy into this stock market by suggesting that I'm scared of a little volatility is simply juvenile. Suggesting that I don't understand asset allocation is also simply a scare tactic. I don't need insults to motivate my investment strategy, and to make these kinds of statements does show some desperation. Don't count on me as a client - you haven't earned my attention.
Taking your approach, when the stock market does crash - and it will - I promise you that I'm going to remind you of this little conversation, every chance I get.
I knew it would happen.
Good question.
<< <i>You post BS all day long here and have nothing to show for it. >>
Volatility has been tremendous this year in individual sectors, and though not my best year of trading, the results are in the solid double digits.
Shorts on Noodles, Amazon and JCP were my best hits. Moderate loss on FB, but that should bust as the platform is weary.
I have the luxury though of playing both sides of the market as I don't have clients or Wall Street henchmen to answer to.
Ever go short BidAsk or are you ethically locked into the bull side? Think I inquired before but do not recall a response.
<< <i> Who cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Who says I lost on out serious 401K money making opportunities in stocks from 2011-2014. You say that based on what knowledge of my investments? I say different. You also paint a broad canvas suggesting that summer 2007-fall 2011 was a "nothing" period for precious metals and commodities. Get over it. They did well. I was locked in to all that back from Sept 2002-April 2004 when the bulk of my purchases were made.
What matters is that the a cycle that ended in 2007 looks a lot like the setup we're seeing now in 2014/2015. It could go all the way through 2015. But, it will end very badly...just like 2007-2009 did. Maybe even worse. I've been out of the main stock market since the first 5 wave expanded wedge showed up in September 2014. We now have an even bigger one that's 5 months long...sitting atop a 16 year megaphone. Feel free to ride the Dow to 36,000 without me. Who cares about the summer of 2007? Generally, the same people that follow business and economic cycles.....that's who. The sheeple don't follow these cycles...they just follow the herd. Bidask is so entrenched in THE rigged financial system he cannot see the forest for the trees. I'd like to know how BidAsk positioned and invested for his clients from summer 2007 to spring 2009. I suspect he would tell us that he got out of the stock market in October 2007 and then went all-in in on commodities. And now that we had 30 year out-performance of the stock market vs. the commodity and PM sectors in 2014 that somehow this is going to continue on? As much as BidAsk probably tired of the 12 year gold bull market from 1999-2011 (and being proven wrong year after year) it's also equally tiring to hear the same sermon from him on how stocks are great and PMs are just speculative trash. There are things out there called cycles. Some of us follow them. Sometimes they extend for no good reason. Enjoy your lofty perch. The 120 year cycle bottom is still out there....and overdue. It has the potential to rival Sept 2008. Sept-Oct 2014 was the warmup act that currently points to a S&P of <1750.
SPY chart
Taking your approach, when the stock market does crash - and it will - I promise you that I'm going to remind you of this little conversation, every chance I get.
Jmski52, the perma-stock bulls might become conspicuously absent from the PM's/economic forum when that time does occur. This "greatest bull market in history" is winding up for the final hand off from the hucksters to J6P. The sad thing is that J6P hasn't participated in much of the run up from 2009 after they got hammered in 2008. They are beginning to buy into the ruse and will suffer yet another 2008 type calamity. Has there even been a 16 year expanding triangle in stock market that ended well? If it is going to end well, then what's the new business/economic model paradigm currently in play that is powering all this optimism...other than tens of $Trillions of Central Bank money?
It's likely that the most content are those who have never been doing better than right now, and the most miserable are those hoping and betting on a system failure for their profits
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> are those hoping and betting on a system failure for their profits >>
It is actually a difficult conundrum. While one does not wish for financial meltdown, it should not influence investment decisions.
Those that shorted equities heavily in 1999 and 2007 profited handsomely. Economy for the rank and file has been in the toilet since, but few food riots and cardboard shantytowns resulted.
We are in a difficult boom and bust investment environment where trends are much more influenced by a handful of oligarchs than a broad and healthy market. Much interest around the globe in keeping interest rates at well under the inflation rate and reaping cap gain taxes from a overheated stock market.
One central bank is influential, 7 central banks are nearly invincible. Nearly is the key though because economic laws can never, ever be broken. A quintupling of international money supply can only have one ending and it is not pretty. As the tabloids cry deflation a massive, destructive inflation is bubbling will hit like a tsunami.
Look to Japan to be the epicenter.
<< <i>
<< <i>SO I need to cash out my 401k while the market's up and buy metal? >>
An alternative is to properly diversify one's 401k into commodities, metals, and other tangible goods businesses. Less paper more goods.
roadrunner >>
great call !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i><< SO I need to cash out my 401k while the market's up and buy metal?
I would strongly recommend against that. >>
I was joking. Although some members here did just that and have not looked back.
I did cash out of all my retirement accounts, and I will explain why. The following is exactly why I started thinking about it, to wit:
I'm glad to hear you were joking, but I'm going to perseverate on this a bit because it's so massively ill-advised, in case anyone reading this has doubts.
Cashing out a 401(k) to invest in something different is apallingly tax-inefficient. 10% penalty for early withdrawal, 30-40% automatic withholding for taxes, they're looking at a 50% haircut before they even start. So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
I do have an MBA, in Finance - so let me see if I can help. The 10% tax penalty is real. Now, consider the annual inflation tax for every single year you leave the 401K in dollar-denominated paper, the inflation tax is implemented every single year on the same assets in your retirement account - not just a one time tax, but every single year. The government understates inflation - do you know why? I rest my case.
The 30-40% automatic witholding is relative. Can you figure this out, or do I need to help you? Ok, I'll help you. What do you think that your tax rate will be when you withdraw the funds after you retire? Go ahead and speculate about what that rate might be. Have you heard anyone continually harping about how taxes will need to increase in order to fund our massively overspent entitlement programs from this point forward? How much government spending do you think needs to be cut, and how much do you think they will actually cut? Let me think for a moment. When they say "cut", they really mean frozen at today's exorbitant spending levels that are generating deficits 4X faster than Bush did. If you think that the NEA sit-in at the Wisconsin statehouse is indicative of what's coming, you are right. The entitlement groups are always going to push for more spending and more benefits no matter what the budget says.
Anyhow, back to the 30-40% automatic witholding. Any way you slice it, you will pay income taxes on the profits from your retirement plan when you cash it in. My assumption has been that those tax rates are going higher, in spite of the fact that you will supposedly be in a lower tax bracket at the time you retire. In other words, it's going to be a wash, at best. At worst it could very well be a dumb, dumb, dumb idea to leave your assets where you can only have access to them after the entity you pay to keep them has jumped through all the bureaucratic and regulatory hoops that they keep piling on. (If they are still solvent when you want your money, that is.)
So whatever they bought after cashing out would have had to double in price simply for them to break even in pre-tax terms.
Don't worry - I did cash out, and those particular funds have more than doubled already. I stopped believing in the paper fiasco and now it's very easy to see what they keep doing to the currency and the stock market. The conventional "be a good little citizen" mantra that the government slips into your coffee every waking moment only applies to you. It doesn't apply to the unions, the wall streeters, the government itself - the Dodds, the Raines, the Geithners, the Daschels, the Sandy Burgers, the Hasterts, the whole Illinois machine, the Rangels - the gollums who worm their way into the system and use it for personal advantage. You have to protect yourself. Nobody else is going to do it - least of all, the government. I am sorry to come off sounding severe, but I think reality can't be ignored any more. Instead of changing their attitude, they have stepped on the gas. I am convinced that they know what they are doing.
***** Note, I'm not recommending that anyone cash out 100% all at one time, but I do think it's a very good idea to ease out and to not take forever to do it. Always move in increments. Everyone has an opinion, and this is the countervailing opinion. >>
what a bunch of hogwash!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Now, consider the annual inflation tax for every single year you leave the 401K in dollar-denominated paper, the inflation tax is implemented every single year on the same assets in your retirement account - not just a one time tax, but every single year.
I don't see your point.
Yes, I know. You are totally into the game that the banks and financial industry wants you to be into. What I can't believe is that you don't see my point.
These subsequent posts illustrate my point entirely:
<< My 401K just FINALLY got back to my pre 2008 crash balance. Almost 3 years in idle.
How much will the next hit be? Will I ever recover after the next one? >>
I am still not back to the 2008 level.
It doesn't matter much if the "free money" that comes from matching funds disappears right along with your earned contributions when the market gets hammered. Then, to keep the little fishies from panicking they inflate the stock market with stimulus money and expect you to believe that the money isn't being destroyed.
ranshdow, I don't know what's absurd about seeing reality for what it is, and then stepping aside when you see a freight train bearing down on you. Yes, it's true that we've been hearing dire predictions for 40 years, and you tend to become conditioned. On the other hand, why do you suppose gold has risen 10 years running? Luck?
Why would anyone need a custodial Pimco account if they're grown-up enough to manage their own money? That's the fallacy we've all been taught - that the Timmy Geithners of the world are so much smarter than us "little people". I'll leave it at that.
I do think it's a backhanded slap to say that anyone in charge of their own assets is "speculating". Tell that to someone who has been financially hobbled and who still keeps his assets in a "custodial" relationship with a large financial institution because of the lure of "free money" as an incentive to stay in a losing relationship. Why is there a penalty for withdrawing your own retirement funds before retirement age from one of these plans? That thought process is somewhat ironic, based on the results of the past 10 years.
Keep your own money, manage it yourself - and if you come out ahead it is speculation. Let some "custodian" manage it for a fee, lose a big chunk of your assets, get your butt kicked - and that is called a "no brainer".
How many more years of corruption and mismanagement in the financial industry and in big government will it take before you see my point, ranshdow? >>
yeah you saw reality alright ..... You lost huge opportunity cost !
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>1jester, let me be the first to point out that your decisions are not without risk. Ranshdow would call it speculating. I call it "playing heads-up ball". There may come a day when the system is repaired, trust is restored, and integrity comes back into the system. At some point, the government won't be determining who the winners and losings are going to be. Until then, I've stepped aside, totally.
The biggest risks that I see aren't market-driven, they are government and banking cartel-driven. Everything they do is designed to fleece the innocent. There is no integrity and no good will involved. >>
totally idiotic!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>percyb, your comments got me started up again on the issue of risk and speculation, and those should be discussed further. Risk is definable in a quantitative way. Speculation is acting upon your best guess, and that's what I do all the time. Risk doesn't equate to recklessness. Risk doesn't mean "to wager".
When people talk about risk management and act as if ownership of paper assets can be risk-adjusted and optimized for yield, they are selling the same crap that got us all into this hot water in the first place. First-order derivatives become 2nd-order derivatives and then they become snake oil. I've simply had enough of the lies they use simply to generate commissions and fees. They are not as smart as they want you to believe.
Smartest guys in the room. Remember that? Same thing.
My contention is that joe 6 pack isn't that dumb, and that the risk managers who went to Ivy League schools to learn option pricing models and arbitrage in order to get jobs on wall street are the ones who need much more scrutiny. The truth needs to get out about who is doing what to whom, and why. >>
more idiocy!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>The entire Ponzi financial system has had the risk permanently distorted by manufactured low interest rates over the past 15 years. This is what those $200 TRILL in otc interest swaps owned by our top 5 banks has done....it's totally miscategorized the risks in the markets. And because of that investors have taken on risks based on purely imaginery numbers.
Until the US bank's $200 TRILL in IR Swaps gets negated, as well as what's owned by the rest of the world's banks and funds (potentially another $700 TRILL), then any determination of risk is quite meaningless. Risk cannot adequately be defined today when so many entities are not coming clean with what they hold. And in that environment it's no wonder that PM's and commodities have moved towards the top of the investment chain displacing questionable paper in the process.
roadrunner[/q} did you dollar cost average your pm's on the way down?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>derryb, I don't think you're delusional and I wish you all the nimbleness and luck in the world. Count me as one of the lazy ones at this juncture. You can win at paper or lose at physical, no doubt.
My concern would be the fact - that now the frauds have been exposed in spades, and why anyone would play "chicken" with their money when they already know that the deck isn't just stacked, but heavily stacked against them - that truly bewilders me.
I give a black swan event that collapses the dollar along with the world monetary system a 5% probability. I really don't think that the financial movers and shakers in the world are very competant, nor are most of the political top dogs.
I anticipate and fully expect that the nominal value of my precious metal holdings could easily be cut by half overnight. That's the mental adjustment I'm making. At the same time, I expect that the stock market will concurrently take a spill and lose as much as 75% of it's nominal value during the same occurance that trashes my metal holdings. I suspect that both phenomena will happen with maybe a 20% probability. It's all relative - I don't know anyone who will get away unscathed.
The only other possible scenario is for the stock market to increase another 50% in nominal value while the precious metals double again as retirement dollars get further wiped out. I give that a 75% chance at this point.
It concerns me that any paper claims on a pool of precious metals or rights to those precious metals can be defaulted on. The rules got demolished when the decision was made to give a $trillion to the bankers, and the rules got demolished when they bailed out everyone and his brother who should've been jailed instead. The rules don't apply to Tim Geithner or Chris Dodd. They don't apply to Hilary Clinton or Sandy Burger. The rules are non-existant for Alan Greenspan and Jamie Dimon and Dick Fuld. They don't apply for Rahm Immanuel or Dennis Hastert or Tom Daschel.
The rules no longer apply, especially in the markets. You just don't know it yet. Why on Earth would you still think that they do, or that you would ever see it coming
Call me "ultra-conservative". >>
neither of your scenarios panned out
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i> Who cares about the summer of 2007 and what happened afterwards? Look at the markets now. You lost out on some serious money making opportunity. Why not just admit you were wrong? >>
Who says I lost on out serious 401K money making opportunities in stocks from 2011-2014. You say that based on what knowledge of my investments? I say different. You also paint a broad canvas suggesting that summer 2007-fall 2011 was a "nothing" period for precious metals and commodities. Get over it. They did well. I was locked in to all that back from Sept 2002-April 2004 when the bulk of my purchases were made.
What matters is that the a cycle that ended in 2007 looks a lot like the setup we're seeing now in 2014/2015. It could go all the way through 2015. But, it will end very badly...just like 2007-2009 did. Maybe even worse. I've been out of the main stock market since the first 5 wave expanded wedge showed up in September 2014. We now have an even bigger one that's 5 months long...sitting atop a 16 year megaphone. Feel free to ride the Dow to 36,000 without me. Who cares about the summer of 2007? Generally, the same people that follow business and economic cycles.....that's who. The sheeple don't follow these cycles...they just follow the herd. Bidask is so entrenched in THE rigged financial system he cannot see the forest for the trees. I'd like to know how BidAsk positioned and invested for his clients from summer 2007 to spring 2009. I suspect he would tell us that he got out of the stock market in October 2007 and then went all-in in on commodities. And now that we had 30 year out-performance of the stock market vs. the commodity and PM sectors in 2014 that somehow this is going to continue on? As much as BidAsk probably tired of the 12 year gold bull market from 1999-2011 (and being proven wrong year after year) it's also equally tiring to hear the same sermon from him on how stocks are great and PMs are just speculative trash. There are things out there called cycles. Some of us follow them. Sometimes they extend for no good reason. Enjoy your lofty perch. The 120 year cycle bottom is still out there....and overdue. It has the potential to rival Sept 2008. Sept-Oct 2014 was the warmup act that currently points to a S&P of <1750.
SPY chart
Taking your approach, when the stock market does crash - and it will - I promise you that I'm going to remind you of this little conversation, every chance I get.
Jmski52, the perma-stock bulls might become conspicuously absent from the PM's/economic forum when that time does occur. This "greatest bull market in history" is winding up for the final hand off from the hucksters to J6P. The sad thing is that J6P hasn't participated in much of the run up from 2009 after they got hammered in 2008. They are beginning to buy into the ruse and will suffer yet another 2008 type calamity. Has there even been a 16 year expanding triangle in stock market that ended well? If it is going to end well, then what's the new business/economic model paradigm currently in play that is powering all this optimism...other than tens of $Trillions of Central Bank money?
Yeah and Yellowstone is long overdue for another cataclysmic eruption, time to evacuate the world. Errors have been made. Others will be blamed.
Too busy calling the other fellow idiotic.
Well, up to the mountain for a long holiday week.
Blessings to you all!
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>well for comparing members, somewhere there is an asset allocation thread, though not sure who all had the guts to post their percentages.
It's likely that the most content are those who have never been doing better than right now, and the most miserable are those hoping and betting on a system failure for their profits >>
It doesn't have anything to do money for which one owns it all. So how are the stewards doings?
The system has failed 70% of America and that number grows daily while the percentage at the top holding most of the assets shrinks daily.
We've off-shored tens of millions of jobs at under $100/week and more daily.
We've reduced the quality and quantity of goods and services everywhere.
We've frozen and cut pay and benefits everywhere possible.
I could go on and on but the bottom line is this: We've mortgaged the future of the country so those select few who own "the system" can further enrich themselves.
Some hold the keys to the kingdom. Keep counting your profits. I'm sure that should keep you most content.
I only advocated diversification relative to understanding a individual's tolerance for risk.
I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ......
You doomsdayers should stick to precious metals and coins cause the rest you really don't know what your your talking about.
But if you do make and continue to make idiotic comments are you surprised your being challenged?
Can't one of you guys say 'man I was wrong in that call' or maybe 'it's not as bad as I thought' or hey 'maybe paper assets can give me a return'? Or maybe 'I have been to concentrated in gold'......????
No, you keep pushing your BS .... and that is really what it is.
So in the next market crash you can say anything you want cause in doing this for 34 years as a professional financial advisor for a major Wall Street firm I have seen it all and been apart of the ups and downs, all different asset classes, I won't be surprised by anything.
But I will keep an open mind, continue to learn, and admit when I'm wrong and make adjustments for myself and clients.
I will certainly continue to rely on that real life experience.😊
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<<Crickets chirping>>
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Bidask, in your fiduciary capacity, do you advise your paying customers to purchase financial instruments on which you collect a commission, in addition to being paid to offer your advice? Since we're being personal here, I'd like to be crystal-clear about your motives.
<<Crickets chirping>> >>
As a fiduciary I am given discretion as to what to buy and sell for my clients as I see fit. Both bonds and stocks (mostly stocks the last few years)
They pay a ongoing fee.
Then I have clients who want advice and pay a ongoing fee but they want to be apart of the decision.
Then I have very few clients who pay a straight commission .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Now I can objectively assess your statements or opinions on precious metal questions.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I have gotten tired of reading idiot comments ...... >>
Why the angst? Market is going your way (for now) commissions are non refundable even when your recommendations go bust, and the Fed will no doubt bail out your employer during the next crisis, maybe for the second or third time.
Damn it is cold at 9000 feet.
What happened the last few years to the staunch commodity bugs? A) They generally speaking-took the pipe.
Axiom 1a: those who predict, can't and those who can predict, don't.
I do not choose to bash those who are "stackers" as that is their specific choice. The fundamental issue is that metals are a store of value and have no ability to generate income, nor grow dynamically on their own. In times of instability there is a flight to metals for safety, however, given that the one place in the world the economy is growing and unemployment is the USA, I would be hesitant to abandon either the dollar or the markets here in terms of investments.
For silver: Open contracts for approximately 308 million ounces with an inventory of only 65 million ounces available for delivery, roughly 5 ounces contracted for every ounce available.
For gold: Open contracts for approximately 16 million ounces with an inventory of only 869,000 available for delivery, roughly 20 ounces contracted for every ounce available.
Next week could be very interesting.
COMEX Being cornered?
"Never in the past has this much open interest been still outstanding with deliverable inventory as low as it is."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey