If Brady gets hurt at this point -- and I certainly hope he doesn't -- I'd nevertheless relish the heat the Hoodie would take for having him out there throwing passes still...
I'd say Brady has got his timing back now...I'd also agree that he should be taken out of the game at this point. It makes no sense leaving him in now.,
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>It was actually much closer than I thought it would be! >>
Yeah, but a bet Glazer (owner of Man U and the Sucs) made most of the fans cheer for the Patriots, despite their victory over the Brits from 1773 through 1784.
A solid win today against the Fins! Glad we didnt lose focus after our bye week, another thing where was Joey Porter today? That jackass big mouth lets everyone know how much he hates the Pats and didnt even record a Tackle I dont think... Stuff that one in your rear end Joey
I don't recall Porter being able to pressure anyone today. In any case, good win, but I'm not comfortable that they had to settle for 2 field goals when they should have scored a TD on both occassions.
<< <i>I don't recall Porter being able to pressure anyone today. In any case, good win, but I'm not comfortable that they had to settle for 2 field goals when they should have scored a TD on both occassions. >>
recall the play where Brady rolled out to his left and had to throw the ball away (or at least he looked like he did), that was Porter that was about to hit him.
This is a very good game, but I'm pretty sure Collinsworth wants to have his way with Brady. He sure seems to praise him every other snap and it gets kinda old. I really like the feature they had about Peyton and Brady and how NFL HOF QB's rate each of them. I always look forward to this game - here's to hoping it gets a bit closer in score to add to the excitement!
Don't mean to rub salt in the wound.. but that 4th and 2 was one of the most bizarre (and uncharachteristic for Belichick) coaching decisions I've ever seen.
I think I saw this happen once on the Twilight Zone......just for a split second, Belicheck warps back in time when he was wearing Brown and Orange...that is the kind of thing that would happen to the Clowns.
Belicheck rolled the dice to put the game away! He didn't want to give Manning another chance to shred his very tired defense, yet again. Proved to be the wrong decision.
If Brady threw a first down, game over and Belicheck would have been called a genius for the thousandth time.
But instead, coach will be second guessed for quite a while.
IMO it was the right call. The Colts were rolling offensively in the 4th. Pats get 2 yards 9 times out of 10. Manning would have drove them 70 yards easily.
BTW - It almost looked like Rodney Harrison was about to cry on the postgame show.
IMO it was the right call. The Colts were rolling offensively in the 4th. Pats get 2 yards 9 times out of 10. Manning would have drove them 70 yards easily.
BTW - It almost looked like Rodney Harrison was about to cry on the postgame show. >>
Agreed. I'm almost sure it was the right call.
If they make the first down, they win 100% of the time. If they fail to convert on 4th down, they still win about 50% of the time (I'm just guessing, but that feels about right).
So, by going for it you've got about a 75% chance of winning.
By kicking, you're pinning Indy back, but I think the chances that either a) the punt returner brings it back for a TD, b) Manning drives down for a TD, are probably higher than 25% or so.
Even if they convert the 4th down people question the call after the fact. I believe I just heard SC say the Patriots convert 4th & 2 around 63% of the time.
ripken - you are wrong...you want to know how I know....BECAUSE HE MADE THE SAME CALL EARLIER THIS YEAR VERSUS ATLANTA. They had 4th and 1 on their own 24 in the 3rd quarter. They made first down, proceeded to run another 7 minutes off the clock, kicked a FG to go up 9, and effectively ended the game because they pretty much gassed the defense with that drive.
<< <i>Even if they convert the 4th down people question the call after the fact. I believe I just heard SC say the Patriots convert 4th & 2 around 63% of the time. >>
People question it because it's different.
The fact is, this is a very easy problem to solve if you know the probability of a) making the first down, b) that the Colts will score if you don't make it, and c) that the Colts will score if you punt. I don't have access to those approximations (and nor does anyone else here, from what I can gather), but I would be very, very surprised if Cap'n Bill did not.
<< <i>ripken - you are wrong...you want to know how I know....BECAUSE HE MADE THE SAME CALL EARLIER THIS YEAR VERSUS ATLANTA. They had 4th and 1 on their own 24 in the 3rd quarter. They made first down, proceeded to run another 7 minutes off the clock, kicked a FG to go up 9, and effectively ended the game because they pretty much gassed the defense with that drive. >>
There's a difference between making that call in the 3rd quarter against the Falcons and with 2:00 left in the game against Indy. If you botch the play against the Falcons you still have a quarter at worst down by 2 if they go for a 2PC. If you botch the play against Indy you set yourself up to lose the game.
Heck no, kick a field goal. At least you'll put the score out of reach.
As for the probabilities? I'll bet it's much higher for the Colts getting the ball on the Pats 29 than it is for them taking the ball on their own 29 or deeper.
Bad call. Kick it away and allow your D to do the job.
Once I saw two turnovers at the end zone, I knew something was up...I just thought we were going to win by a few point instead of 10. Bookies must be happy today.
I think looking at the call from an immediate win position you could say its a good call as you had a 63% (i am assuming SC looked this up) chance of winning outright.
However, I tend to be more conservative and would try and put my chances to win on more than one play. By kicking you are forcing the Colts to make more plays to win. The more plays you make them do the better the odds you will either stop them, cause a TO or the clock runs out. They also had to score a TD so that also goes into the calculation.
I think if you were to try and look at the situation from a total WIN position it would be interesting to see how often teams convert 60+ yard drives at the end of games for wins?
Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
I wont question the call, The D was tired, Manning is pretty much the same as Brady as far as being effective in driving for the winning score.
Bad call? Maybe? The right call if they got the first down? Sure it would have been- either way we lost the football game. >>
when you have to call a time out coming after a change of possession and then run a few uncoordinated and not so well executed plays, it should have been a sign that punting was the right choice. The Pats looked totally out of sorts before first down, then on first, second and third downs. If that wasn't signal enough, I don't know what would have been. Good thing he has three Rings and it wasn't game seven against the Yankees, otherwise Grady Belichick would be out of there. He's made bad moves in the past, but a STUPID move? That's the first STUPID move I have seen him do.
The 63% figure quoted above is for ALL offenses in the history of the game....which includes every Detroit Lion-, Cleveland Brown-, can't-get-out-of-their-own-way offense. I would say that the Patriots offense, which is one of the better offenses of all time, with arguably the greatest QB of all time make 4th and 2 closer to 70% of the time. Now add the 5% chance that the Pats could stop the Colts in the event they don't make the first down, and going for it yields a 75% chance that they win the game.
The Colts had 3 possessions in the 4th quarter that point, and scored 2 TDs, each on a 79-yard drive, neither of which took longer than 2:04. So, tell me, what were the chances of the Pats stopping them in 2 minutes with the Colts having a timeout. Is it greater than 75%? Not even close. At best, it is a 50/50 proposition, and if the 4th quarter was any indication, especially with ALL the momemtum going the Colts way, I think the Pats maybe stop them 40% of the time.
So, going for it yields a 75% chance of victory, punting it yields 40%. The decision was a relatively easy one.
<< <i>I think the Pats maybe stop them 40% of the time. >>
Is there any basis for this conclusion? At the end of a day a coach is paid the big $ to put their team in the best position to win. Obviously he thought the team had a better chance by going for it and potentially giving the Colts a short field. If Bill is such a genius for going for it on 4th down then why bother tackling Addai a yard short of the endzone? If you're gutsy enough to go for it on 4th down on your 28 you had might as well let Indy score a TD and get the ball back with as much time as possible and hope for a FG.
jdip9 it's fine to disagree with others but to try and use stats to back your position then use made up stats like "50/50 at best" is kinda lame. Maybe the true numbers for how often the Colts score on drives like that but just to pull numbers out of a hat and say that proves others are wrong is also wrong.
Also if you take the whole 2nd half into consideration it was just as likely based on the Colts possessions that their drive would have ended up in a INT or a TD. I don't know if you can single out the 4th quarter as being different than any other quarter as far as how teams play. It reminds me of the argument for postseason players or players who choke in the postseason.
Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
Comments
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Bosox1976
<< <i>It was actually much closer than I thought it would be! >>
Yeah, but a bet Glazer (owner of Man U and the Sucs) made most of the fans cheer for the Patriots, despite their victory over the Brits from 1773 through 1784.
<< <i>I don't recall Porter being able to pressure anyone today. In any case, good win, but I'm not comfortable that they had to settle for 2 field goals when they should have scored a TD on both occassions. >>
recall the play where Brady rolled out to his left and had to throw the ball away (or at least he looked like he did), that was Porter that was about to hit him.
shawn
Whatever though it was a good game, too bad we couldnt have put it away.
<< <i>in case any of you missed it during previous years, this just in: Maroney sucks. >>
Ya think?
Don't mean to rub salt in the wound.. but that 4th and 2 was one of the most bizarre (and uncharachteristic for Belichick) coaching decisions I've ever seen.
GrandAm
View Vintage Football Cards For Sale
Quicksilver Messenger Service - Smokestack Lightning (Live) 1968
Quicksilver Messenger Service - The Hat (Live) 1971
View Vintage Football Cards For Sale
Belicheck rolled the dice to put the game away! He didn't want to give Manning another chance to shred his very tired defense, yet again. Proved to be the wrong decision.
If Brady threw a first down, game over and Belicheck would have been called a genius for the thousandth time.
But instead, coach will be second guessed for quite a while.
rd
Quicksilver Messenger Service - Smokestack Lightning (Live) 1968
Quicksilver Messenger Service - The Hat (Live) 1971
IMO it was the right call. The Colts were rolling offensively in the 4th. Pats get 2 yards 9 times out of 10. Manning would have drove them 70 yards easily.
BTW - It almost looked like Rodney Harrison was about to cry on the postgame show.
<< <i>rb - i agree.
IMO it was the right call. The Colts were rolling offensively in the 4th. Pats get 2 yards 9 times out of 10. Manning would have drove them 70 yards easily.
BTW - It almost looked like Rodney Harrison was about to cry on the postgame show. >>
Agreed. I'm almost sure it was the right call.
If they make the first down, they win 100% of the time.
If they fail to convert on 4th down, they still win about 50% of the time (I'm just guessing, but that feels about right).
So, by going for it you've got about a 75% chance of winning.
By kicking, you're pinning Indy back, but I think the chances that either a) the punt returner brings it back for a TD, b) Manning drives down for a TD, are probably higher than 25% or so.
But they did.
BWHAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Ripken in the Minors * Ripken in the Minors Facebook Page
Ripken in the Minors * Ripken in the Minors Facebook Page
You still have to make them do it. It's not like Manning hadn't thrown a couple of picks in the game.
Win or lose, it was a dumb call - and I would have said that even if it worked.
My Podcast - Now FEATURED on iTunes
<< <i>Even if they convert the 4th down people question the call after the fact. I believe I just heard SC say the Patriots convert 4th & 2 around 63% of the time. >>
People question it because it's different.
The fact is, this is a very easy problem to solve if you know the probability of a) making the first down, b) that the Colts will score if you don't make it, and c) that the Colts will score if you punt. I don't have access to those approximations (and nor does anyone else here, from what I can gather), but I would be very, very surprised if Cap'n Bill did not.
<< <i>ripken - you are wrong...you want to know how I know....BECAUSE HE MADE THE SAME CALL EARLIER THIS YEAR VERSUS ATLANTA. They had 4th and 1 on their own 24 in the 3rd quarter. They made first down, proceeded to run another 7 minutes off the clock, kicked a FG to go up 9, and effectively ended the game because they pretty much gassed the defense with that drive. >>
There's a difference between making that call in the 3rd quarter against the Falcons and with 2:00 left in the game against Indy. If you botch the play against the Falcons you still have a quarter at worst down by 2 if they go for a 2PC. If you botch the play against Indy you set yourself up to lose the game.
Ripken in the Minors * Ripken in the Minors Facebook Page
Go for it?
Punt it away?
Heck no, kick a field goal. At least you'll put the score out of reach.
As for the probabilities? I'll bet it's much higher for the Colts getting the ball on the Pats 29 than it is for them taking the ball on their own 29 or deeper.
Bad call. Kick it away and allow your D to do the job.
I wont question the call, The D was tired, Manning is pretty much the same as Brady as far as being effective in driving for the winning score.
Bad call? Maybe? The right call if they got the first down? Sure it would have been- either way we lost the football game.
However, I tend to be more conservative and would try and put my chances to win on more than one play. By kicking you are forcing the Colts to make more plays to win. The more plays you make them do the better the odds you will either stop them, cause a TO or the clock runs out. They also had to score a TD so that also goes into the calculation.
I think if you were to try and look at the situation from a total WIN position it would be interesting to see how often teams convert 60+ yard drives at the end of games for wins?
<< <i>Im torn.
I wont question the call, The D was tired, Manning is pretty much the same as Brady as far as being effective in driving for the winning score.
Bad call? Maybe? The right call if they got the first down? Sure it would have been- either way we lost the football game. >>
when you have to call a time out coming after a change of possession and then run a few uncoordinated and not so well executed plays, it should have been a sign that punting was the right choice. The Pats looked totally out of sorts before first down, then on first, second and third downs. If that wasn't signal enough, I don't know what would have been. Good thing he has three Rings and it wasn't game seven against the Yankees, otherwise Grady Belichick would be out of there. He's made bad moves in the past, but a STUPID move? That's the first STUPID move I have seen him do.
Even if it is 63% you don't do it.
That said, if you can't run for a yard and a half with a big game on the line you REALLY don't do it. I'm sure pass plays on 4th and 1 are NOT 63%.
Glad it is week 10 and not the playoffs. They'll get a do over against Brees.
Bosox1976
http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf
The 63% figure quoted above is for ALL offenses in the history of the game....which includes every Detroit Lion-, Cleveland Brown-, can't-get-out-of-their-own-way offense. I would say that the Patriots offense, which is one of the better offenses of all time, with arguably the greatest QB of all time make 4th and 2 closer to 70% of the time. Now add the 5% chance that the Pats could stop the Colts in the event they don't make the first down, and going for it yields a 75% chance that they win the game.
The Colts had 3 possessions in the 4th quarter that point, and scored 2 TDs, each on a 79-yard drive, neither of which took longer than 2:04. So, tell me, what were the chances of the Pats stopping them in 2 minutes with the Colts having a timeout. Is it greater than 75%? Not even close. At best, it is a 50/50 proposition, and if the 4th quarter was any indication, especially with ALL the momemtum going the Colts way, I think the Pats maybe stop them 40% of the time.
So, going for it yields a 75% chance of victory, punting it yields 40%. The decision was a relatively easy one.
<< <i>I think the Pats maybe stop them 40% of the time. >>
Is there any basis for this conclusion? At the end of a day a coach is paid the big $ to put their team in the best position to win. Obviously he thought the team had a better chance by going for it and potentially giving the Colts a short field. If Bill is such a genius for going for it on 4th down then why bother tackling Addai a yard short of the endzone? If you're gutsy enough to go for it on 4th down on your 28 you had might as well let Indy score a TD and get the ball back with as much time as possible and hope for a FG.
Ripken in the Minors * Ripken in the Minors Facebook Page
Also if you take the whole 2nd half into consideration it was just as likely based on the Colts possessions that their drive would have ended up in a INT or a TD. I don't know if you can single out the 4th quarter as being different than any other quarter as far as how teams play. It reminds me of the argument for postseason players or players who choke in the postseason.