Not really sure why you would compare Ryan Howard to Dave Kingman. Kingman pitched in college, has played 1b,3b,all of positions, and even pitched in the majors. Am I saying Dave Kingman is better then Ryan Howard- NO, but you can't compare them. Kingman was a low average hitter, who struck out a lot, and hit a ton of long distance homers. Kingman was a decent baserunner(85 lifetime steals), and was a better all around player then he got credit for.
I'm not trying to knock Ryan Howard, just think Dave Kingman deserves more credit!
<< <i>on the douchebag scale. Kingman dwarfs howard. On the other hand how many world series did Kingman play in and win....oh wait.
and he PITCHED 4 innings in his career, thats a stunning accomplishment lol >>
The point was that Kingman was a pither at USC, also a 1st round draft pick. Ryan Howard was a 5th round pick. Kingman was in the majors at 22, howard not till he was 27. You really can't compare them, Kingman career is over, you don't know when Howard's will be.
thats true, you cant compare them. Howard, despite not getting a full time job until his mid to late 20's absolutely dwarfs Kingman and its not even close. Does the round he was drafted matter? do his college stats matter? Nope. no one cares but you.
<< <i>This is pretty funny comparing Ryan Howard to Dave Kingman of all people. Where in the world did you come up with Dave Kingman? Why not Rob Deer, Cecil Fielder, or any other power hitter that struck out alot? >>
Cecil Fielder sounds like the right comparison. Seems Ryan Howard's stats will fall off pretty quickly, but time will tell.
Where's the stat genius who started this "Ryan Howard transformation to Dave Kingman thread" now? Each game Ryan Howard makes you look sillier and sillier and more and more ignorant...Case closed.
SteveK, Howard does not seek apologies. IN fact, I would guess that he himself would recognize the reason why he gets soo many RBI.
The people that owe apologies are the ones who vote Howard the MVP, or give Howard so much credit base on RBI. Who do they owe the apologies to?
Utley, Victorino, Werth, Rollins, etc... Utley is by far their best player. . >>
Where would the Phillies be without Utley.....actually they would be up 3 games to none.
I think I know there the OP is and it isn't here. >>
<<< actually they would be up 3 games to none. >>>
You're right - I hope Utley isn't developing some psychosomatic type thing whereby he can't throw accurately - he's also had a few easy plays throwing to first base that almost pulled Howard off the bag but fortunately Howard is a big target...but I think Utley with his outstanding work ethic, will work his way through the problem.
Frankly, I think the Ryan Howard naysayers realize the error of their ways, and if they are watching the NL playoffs now understand why Howard won an MVP, and is always up there in the running.
The lesson to be learned is that stats don't always tell the whole story. Case closed.
Seems Howard is going to need have few big World Series games to prevent himself from having one of the worst World Series performances in recorded history. Though I did like his stolen base last night
I will admit one thing, Howard/Kingman is probably not the most appropriate...Howard/Sexson is better.
It is a good thing for Howard that he has three guys ahead of him who are excellent at getting on base, AND run the bases extremely well, because it fools a lot of people in thinking he is better than he truly is, which is good, but not a god.
SteveK, baseball stats do not tell the whole story...only about 95% of it. The other 5% is reserved for the hyperbole talking heads who need something to make themselves sound important.
Football stats on the other hand, do need to be looked at in a different light. From this aspect, your comment does make sense, but not so much in the baseball realm.
The post season clutch nonsense should be going out the window for ANY player. I think Arod erased that notion...of which he never should of had to begin with because he was good in the post season with Seattle. Bonds erased it. Howard is erasing it backwards(though he really only had three good post season series in his career anyway). Given time, it all reverts back to their regular performance. No need to make claims such as 'clutch' or 'choker' based on 200 at bats, when you have 4,000 at bats to already make a valid assessment. Just more hyperbole.
Even if Howard hits six home runs the next three days, if he really were clutch, and could control an ability to 'rise to the occasion', he would not have looked as silly as he has the first four games this series. Don't you think he would have called upon that special ability and at least make contact a few times??
I've poked fun at Howard in the past, too, but he certainly looks pretty good right now.
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<< <i>I've poked fun at Howard in the past, too, but he certainly looks pretty good right now. >>
Agreed, Howard's the real deal. Seems like a nice guy, too, hope he does not have any secret "transgressions". >>
Rumor has it the worst thing Howard ever did was he once stuck gum underneath his chair in class during the 6th grade...but MLB does not intend to take punitive action against him at this time.
<< <i>I've poked fun at Howard in the past, too, but he certainly looks pretty good right now. >>
Agreed, Howard's the real deal. Seems like a nice guy, too, hope he does not have any secret "transgressions". >>
Rumor has it the worst thing Howard ever did was he once stuck gum underneath his chair in class during the 6th grade...but MLB does not intend to take punitive action against him at this time. >>
Good thing Selig is a softee -- Goodell would have suspended him for 10 games.
Don't be sour because you believe in that post season clutch nonsense, as you are bitter because Arod showed you the randomness that is at work, and you have been on a crusade saying he cannot play in the post season(even though he did perform before your crusade, which is puzzling).
I don't know how soon Howard will turn into a kingman type player, but he is NOT near the elite HOF quality hitters of the steroid era, and his RBI are inflated due to his outstanding lineup, yet fools like you continue to spout them out while completely ignoring that fact...and then think he is as good as Pujols(or would prefer him over Pujols, which is just as retarded).
Please don't say you understand that teammates matter in RBI, because nearly every time you use RBI with Howard you never take that into account, like the above first grade comparison you just did.
No, he isn't Kingman yet, and no, it will not wait until age 40 to happen...but at least understand the context of the numbers you posted above.
Hitting home runs in this era is much easier than in Kingman's era, and hitting home runs in his home park is easier than the home parks Kingman got most of his at bats in. Not to mention the lineups that each had to hit in.
He is not Kingman yet, but the HGH freak will be before you think it will.
Howard's new contract extension: $20 million in 2012 and 2013 and $25 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016. There is also a club option for 2017 worth $23 million with a $10 million buyout.
That is the kind of money you pay for the games elite players, or for the type of year Howard had in 2006 when he truly did merit the high recognition that he gets now (because of the inflated RBI totals from the great lineup, and to his credit some good years with hitting with men on base).
The problem is, players don't sustain that type of hitting with men on base...it will normalize. When that is coupled with a drop in the amount of opportunties, the average fan will recognize him as a merely very good hitter, instead the elite hitter they think he is(based on the INFLATED RBI totals). When a drop in AVG and SLG% are added, even the average fans will recognize it.
The hitting line that he has this season right now will become the norm for a few of the years in that contract extension...
.275 AVG .301 OB% .475 SLG%
99 OPS+
I'm sure he will up those numbers higher this year...but Philly fans, get used to them because in a few years YOU will be paying him 25 million dollars a year to do that while playing a sub par defensive position poorly.
This year and next year he should be o.k, though I wouldn't be surprised if he flops one of them. His lineup may help hide it and make him look better than he is though.
2012 and 2013 will begin a noticeable decline, similarly to what Soriano is going through.
2014-2016 may turn out to be the worst contracts in sports history, right along Soriano's.
<< <i>Howard's new contract extension: $20 million in 2012 and 2013 and $25 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016. There is also a club option for 2017 worth $23 million with a $10 million buyout.
That is the kind of money you pay for the games elite players, or for the type of year Howard had in 2006 when he truly did merit the high recognition that he gets now (because of the inflated RBI totals from the great lineup, and to his credit some good years with hitting with men on base).
The problem is, players don't sustain that type of hitting with men on base...it will normalize. When that is coupled with a drop in the amount of opportunties, the average fan will recognize him as a merely very good hitter, instead the elite hitter they think he is(based on the INFLATED RBI totals). When a drop in AVG and SLG% are added, even the average fans will recognize it.
The hitting line that he has this season right now will become the norm for a few of the years in that contract extension...
.275 AVG .301 OB% .475 SLG%
99 OPS+
I'm sure he will up those numbers higher this year...but Philly fans, get used to them because in a few years YOU will be paying him 25 million dollars a year to do that while playing a sub par defensive position poorly.
This year and next year he should be o.k, though I wouldn't be surprised if he flops one of them. His lineup may help hide it and make him look better than he is though.
2012 and 2013 will begin a noticeable decline, similarly to what Soriano is going through.
2014-2016 may turn out to be the worst contracts in sports history, right along Soriano's. >>
<< <i>Howard's new contract extension: $20 million in 2012 and 2013 and $25 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016. There is also a club option for 2017 worth $23 million with a $10 million buyout.
That is the kind of money you pay for the games elite players, or for the type of year Howard had in 2006 when he truly did merit the high recognition that he gets now (because of the inflated RBI totals from the great lineup, and to his credit some good years with hitting with men on base).
The problem is, players don't sustain that type of hitting with men on base...it will normalize. When that is coupled with a drop in the amount of opportunties, the average fan will recognize him as a merely very good hitter, instead the elite hitter they think he is(based on the INFLATED RBI totals). When a drop in AVG and SLG% are added, even the average fans will recognize it.
The hitting line that he has this season right now will become the norm for a few of the years in that contract extension...
.275 AVG .301 OB% .475 SLG%
99 OPS+
I'm sure he will up those numbers higher this year...but Philly fans, get used to them because in a few years YOU will be paying him 25 million dollars a year to do that while playing a sub par defensive position poorly.
This year and next year he should be o.k, though I wouldn't be surprised if he flops one of them. His lineup may help hide it and make him look better than he is though.
2012 and 2013 will begin a noticeable decline, similarly to what Soriano is going through.
2014-2016 may turn out to be the worst contracts in sports history, right along Soriano's. >>
You're just diggin' the hole deeper. LOL >>
Stevek, no worry about digging a deeper hole. The World Series championship that Chase Utley, Hamels, and Lidge brought the Phillies will long be forgotten when Howard is Dave Kingman, and is getting paid 25 million dollars a year to do it.
How could the "flawless" Sabermetrics calculations have been so wrong? Could it be that the Sabermetrics stat worshippers haven't figured it out yet that baseball is played by real flesh & blood human beings, and not by robots?
I hear Howard is going to be the inaugral winner of the HGH Award..
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That gives him a total OPS+ of the last four years at 119. Dave kingman's CAREER OPS+ was 115(and in a tougher era to achieve higher OPS+).
Since Howard had some fine years before his transformation, he will be better than Kingman in the end...however, the point was that while he was still at what people considered the top of his game, I proclaimed a Kingman transformation was COMING, and he has done that transformation since that time!
I would also like to point out that he still needs 2,400 career plate appearances to match Kingman's total. I shudder to think what Howard's next 2,400 plate appearances are going to look like. I suspect he will fall into a platoon role to save his percentages(and fool people some more). I'm not even sure if he will be good enough to even have a job long enough to even accumulate another 2,400 more plate appearances, and will retire early(which again will fool people who will then look at his career percentages and ignore that he wasn't good enough to play long).
The next aspect is Howard's so called clutch ability which was hailed so much!
Howard's last four Post Season Series OPS are:
.631 .657 .900 .406
With an amazingly historically bad 36 strikeouts in 75 at bats!!! Hardly the mark of a clutch player. Clutch players in the elite settings are a myth, so that isn't surprising.
In a word, abysmal. Seems he forgot how to be clutch, and he was the final out in at least two of those series! Certainly a man of clutch stature would not be the final out in any series, let alone two! Well, not if he really did have a clutch ability! And he wouldn't strikeout out every other at bat!
SteveK, the Phillies should have listened to my proclamation, because they wouldn't STILL be on the hook for another 95 million dollars for Howard!
I will give Howard his due for his 2006 season(which was HOF caliber), and a few others (which were All-Star Caliber)...but I will give his teammates a lot of the shared credit for his RBI totals(which everyone always seemed to give to Howard alone).
Now, unless Howard does a miracle turnaround, he is really only worthy of being a platoon player, and this happened by age 32!!!
I dont have a dog in this fight but isnt the job of the 4 slot to knock the guys in that get on base? Also, players tend to decline at some point in their career but I have to admit, he is doing it earlier than I thought. I never watched Kingman play but when you have a ROY, MVP, WS Champ, HR Champ, etc.....there will alway be high expectations
<< <i>I dont have a dog in this fight but isnt the job of the 4 slot to knock the guys in that get on base? Also, players tend to decline at some point in their career but I have to admit, he is doing it earlier than I thought. I never watched Kingman play but when you have a ROY, MVP, WS Champ, HR Champ, etc.....there will alway be high expectations >>
Any hitters job is to use his batting ability to create runs for the team...creating runs isn't just looking at an RBI total though. Four hitters get more RBI opportunities than other slots in the lineup, and four hitters from different teams get unequal RBI opportunities due to the level of ability of their teammates. Basically, just throw RBI totals away if you want to measure the player. There are far better measurements. If you still use RBI to make your determination, then you are about eight years late to the dance.
Howard's decline started when people thought he was still HOF caliber. It was just masked by his high RBI totals(which were greatly enhanced due to his lineup).
If that isn't understood, then I propose a free throw contest between you and I. Whoever makes more free throws wins....only I get to take 20 attempts, and you 10. It is my job to knock the free throws down
Like I said in my post, Howard will end up higher than Kingman, because Howard had a couple of seasons that Kingman never could equal. That was never the point. The point was, that while Howard was declining(and still having good RBI totals due to his teammates), it was fooling people that couldn't see that he was transforming into Kingman, a transformation that he has now completed...and with the Phillies wasting 140 million on Howard, I would say nobody saw the decline coming
@Hoopster said:
So it looks like 2012 will be the official transformation to Kingman, both for the fans and the analysts...but he may actually turn into worse. He could become the bad Greg Vaughn!
Doing a little walk down memory lane and found this gem of a thread. The single only thing Hoopster (now skin2) got wrong was that 2012 was not when Howard transformed to Kingman, or even the bad Greg Vaughn, it was the year he transformed to Mario Mendoza. The Phillies brain trust paid Howard 115 MILLION DOLLARS to play worse than a replacement player for FIVE YEARS after that transformation, wrecking any chance the Phillies had of making the playoffs in not just those years, but for many years since and to come.
Final tally for career WAR: Kingman 17.3, Howard 15.0.
This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
@Hoopster said:
So it looks like 2012 will be the official transformation to Kingman, both for the fans and the analysts...but he may actually turn into worse. He could become the bad Greg Vaughn!
Doing a little walk down memory lane and found this gem of a thread. The single only thing Hoopster (now skin2) got wrong was that 2012 was not when Howard transformed to Kingman, or even the bad Greg Vaughn, it was the year he transformed to Mario Mendoza. The Phillies brain trust paid Howard 115 MILLION DOLLARS to play worse than a replacement player for FIVE YEARS after that transformation, wrecking any chance the Phillies had of making the playoffs in not just those years, but for many years since and to come.
Final tally for career WAR: Kingman 17.3, Howard 15.0.
That brain trust seems to have weighed in on the eagles paying big money to that fragile ginger QB instead of sticking with the guy that beat the patriots in the superbowl.
What I learned from this thread is that 4 out of 5 baseball stat geeks seem to like one particular red avatar
When did Howard rip out his Achilles’ tendon? If they paid him stupid money after that, the Phillies management was truly stupid. From what I have read, his baseball career was over after that.
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Comments
I'm not trying to knock Ryan Howard, just think Dave Kingman deserves more credit!
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and he PITCHED 4 innings in his career, thats a stunning accomplishment lol
ridiculous thread...
How many different teams? in how many years?
career batting avg...
c'mon...
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<< <i>on the douchebag scale. Kingman dwarfs howard. On the other hand how many world series did Kingman play in and win....oh wait.
and he PITCHED 4 innings in his career, thats a stunning accomplishment lol >>
The point was that Kingman was a pither at USC, also a 1st round draft pick. Ryan Howard was a 5th round pick. Kingman was in the majors at 22, howard not till he was 27. You really can't compare them, Kingman career is over, you don't know when Howard's will be.
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<< <i>This is pretty funny comparing Ryan Howard to Dave Kingman of all people. Where in the world did you come up with Dave Kingman? Why not Rob Deer, Cecil Fielder, or any other power hitter that struck out alot? >>
Cecil Fielder sounds like the right comparison. Seems Ryan Howard's stats will fall off pretty quickly, but time will tell.
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that doesn't HAVE to happen people!
Look at Barry !!!!
+1
<< <i>Before I bolt out...
SteveK, Howard does not seek apologies. IN fact, I would guess that he himself would recognize the reason why he gets soo many RBI.
The people that owe apologies are the ones who vote Howard the MVP, or give Howard so much credit base on RBI. Who do they owe the apologies to?
Utley, Victorino, Werth, Rollins, etc... Utley is by far their best player. . >>
Where would the Phillies be without Utley.....actually they would be up 3 games to none.
I think I know there the OP is and it isn't here.
<< <i>
<< <i>Before I bolt out...
SteveK, Howard does not seek apologies. IN fact, I would guess that he himself would recognize the reason why he gets soo many RBI.
The people that owe apologies are the ones who vote Howard the MVP, or give Howard so much credit base on RBI. Who do they owe the apologies to?
Utley, Victorino, Werth, Rollins, etc... Utley is by far their best player. . >>
Where would the Phillies be without Utley.....actually they would be up 3 games to none.
I think I know there the OP is and it isn't here. >>
<<< actually they would be up 3 games to none. >>>
You're right - I hope Utley isn't developing some psychosomatic type thing whereby he can't throw accurately - he's also had a few easy plays throwing to first base that almost pulled Howard off the bag but fortunately Howard is a big target...but I think Utley with his outstanding work ethic, will work his way through the problem.
Frankly, I think the Ryan Howard naysayers realize the error of their ways, and if they are watching the NL playoffs now understand why Howard won an MVP, and is always up there in the running.
The lesson to be learned is that stats don't always tell the whole story. Case closed.
Seems Howard is going to need have few big World Series games to prevent himself from having one of the worst World Series performances in recorded history. Though I did like his stolen base last night
I will admit one thing, Howard/Kingman is probably not the most appropriate...Howard/Sexson is better.
It is a good thing for Howard that he has three guys ahead of him who are excellent at getting on base, AND run the bases extremely well, because it fools a lot of people in thinking he is better than he truly is, which is good, but not a god.
SteveK, baseball stats do not tell the whole story...only about 95% of it. The other 5% is reserved for the hyperbole talking heads who need something to make themselves sound important.
Football stats on the other hand, do need to be looked at in a different light. From this aspect, your comment does make sense, but not so much in the baseball realm.
The post season clutch nonsense should be going out the window for ANY player. I think Arod erased that notion...of which he never should of had to begin with because he was good in the post season with Seattle. Bonds erased it. Howard is erasing it backwards(though he really only had three good post season series in his career anyway). Given time, it all reverts back to their regular performance. No need to make claims such as 'clutch' or 'choker' based on 200 at bats, when you have 4,000 at bats to already make a valid assessment. Just more hyperbole.
Even if Howard hits six home runs the next three days, if he really were clutch, and could control an ability to 'rise to the occasion', he would not have looked as silly as he has the first four games this series. Don't you think he would have called upon that special ability and at least make contact a few times??
I'm just checking in to see when that "transformation" is going to develop?
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<< <i>I've poked fun at Howard in the past, too, but he certainly looks pretty good right now. >>
Agreed, Howard's the real deal. Seems like a nice guy, too, hope he does not have any secret "transgressions".
<< <i>
<< <i>I've poked fun at Howard in the past, too, but he certainly looks pretty good right now. >>
Agreed, Howard's the real deal. Seems like a nice guy, too, hope he does not have any secret "transgressions". >>
Rumor has it the worst thing Howard ever did was he once stuck gum underneath his chair in class during the 6th grade...but MLB does not intend to take punitive action against him at this time.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I've poked fun at Howard in the past, too, but he certainly looks pretty good right now. >>
Agreed, Howard's the real deal. Seems like a nice guy, too, hope he does not have any secret "transgressions". >>
Rumor has it the worst thing Howard ever did was he once stuck gum underneath his chair in class during the 6th grade...but MLB does not intend to take punitive action against him at this time. >>
Good thing Selig is a softee -- Goodell would have suspended him for 10 games.
Dave Kingman type player, and if he does he will be 40 years old.
I expect Howard to average 40 120 267 for the next 5 or 6 years.
Hardly 32 88 222 that Kingman would give you.
(The above numbers are from memory)
Steve
Don't be sour because you believe in that post season clutch nonsense, as you are bitter because Arod showed you the randomness that is at work, and you have been on a crusade saying he cannot play in the post season(even though he did perform before your crusade, which is puzzling).
I don't know how soon Howard will turn into a kingman type player, but he is NOT near the elite HOF quality hitters of the steroid era, and his RBI are inflated due to his outstanding lineup, yet fools like you continue to spout them out while completely ignoring that fact...and then think he is as good as Pujols(or would prefer him over Pujols, which is just as retarded).
Please don't say you understand that teammates matter in RBI, because nearly every time you use RBI with Howard you never take that into account, like the above first grade comparison you just did.
No, he isn't Kingman yet, and no, it will not wait until age 40 to happen...but at least understand the context of the numbers you posted above.
Hitting home runs in this era is much easier than in Kingman's era, and hitting home runs in his home park is easier than the home parks Kingman got most of his at bats in. Not to mention the lineups that each had to hit in.
He is not Kingman yet, but the HGH freak will be before you think it will.
Seems like Hoopster isn't as sure of himself as he once was?
But that's entirely understandable considering he was so wrong in the first place. LOL
That is the kind of money you pay for the games elite players, or for the type of year Howard had in 2006 when he truly did merit the high recognition that he gets now (because of the inflated RBI totals from the great lineup, and to his credit some good years with hitting with men on base).
The problem is, players don't sustain that type of hitting with men on base...it will normalize. When that is coupled with a drop in the amount of opportunties, the average fan will recognize him as a merely very good hitter, instead the elite hitter they think he is(based on the INFLATED RBI totals). When a drop in AVG and SLG% are added, even the average fans will recognize it.
The hitting line that he has this season right now will become the norm for a few of the years in that contract extension...
.275 AVG
.301 OB%
.475 SLG%
99 OPS+
I'm sure he will up those numbers higher this year...but Philly fans, get used to them because in a few years YOU will be paying him 25 million dollars a year to do that while playing a sub par defensive position poorly.
This year and next year he should be o.k, though I wouldn't be surprised if he flops one of them. His lineup may help hide it and make him look better than he is though.
2012 and 2013 will begin a noticeable decline, similarly to what Soriano is going through.
2014-2016 may turn out to be the worst contracts in sports history, right along Soriano's.
<< <i>Howard's new contract extension: $20 million in 2012 and 2013 and $25 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016. There is also a club option for 2017 worth $23 million with a $10 million buyout.
That is the kind of money you pay for the games elite players, or for the type of year Howard had in 2006 when he truly did merit the high recognition that he gets now (because of the inflated RBI totals from the great lineup, and to his credit some good years with hitting with men on base).
The problem is, players don't sustain that type of hitting with men on base...it will normalize. When that is coupled with a drop in the amount of opportunties, the average fan will recognize him as a merely very good hitter, instead the elite hitter they think he is(based on the INFLATED RBI totals). When a drop in AVG and SLG% are added, even the average fans will recognize it.
The hitting line that he has this season right now will become the norm for a few of the years in that contract extension...
.275 AVG
.301 OB%
.475 SLG%
99 OPS+
I'm sure he will up those numbers higher this year...but Philly fans, get used to them because in a few years YOU will be paying him 25 million dollars a year to do that while playing a sub par defensive position poorly.
This year and next year he should be o.k, though I wouldn't be surprised if he flops one of them. His lineup may help hide it and make him look better than he is though.
2012 and 2013 will begin a noticeable decline, similarly to what Soriano is going through.
2014-2016 may turn out to be the worst contracts in sports history, right along Soriano's. >>
You're just diggin' the hole deeper. LOL
<< <i>easy to hate when he isn't on your team. >>
If Howard was on the team Hoopster was rooting for, then the thread title would have been "Ryan Howard transformation to Babe Ruth thread..."
LOL
<< <i>
<< <i>Howard's new contract extension: $20 million in 2012 and 2013 and $25 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016. There is also a club option for 2017 worth $23 million with a $10 million buyout.
That is the kind of money you pay for the games elite players, or for the type of year Howard had in 2006 when he truly did merit the high recognition that he gets now (because of the inflated RBI totals from the great lineup, and to his credit some good years with hitting with men on base).
The problem is, players don't sustain that type of hitting with men on base...it will normalize. When that is coupled with a drop in the amount of opportunties, the average fan will recognize him as a merely very good hitter, instead the elite hitter they think he is(based on the INFLATED RBI totals). When a drop in AVG and SLG% are added, even the average fans will recognize it.
The hitting line that he has this season right now will become the norm for a few of the years in that contract extension...
.275 AVG
.301 OB%
.475 SLG%
99 OPS+
I'm sure he will up those numbers higher this year...but Philly fans, get used to them because in a few years YOU will be paying him 25 million dollars a year to do that while playing a sub par defensive position poorly.
This year and next year he should be o.k, though I wouldn't be surprised if he flops one of them. His lineup may help hide it and make him look better than he is though.
2012 and 2013 will begin a noticeable decline, similarly to what Soriano is going through.
2014-2016 may turn out to be the worst contracts in sports history, right along Soriano's. >>
You're just diggin' the hole deeper. LOL >>
Stevek, no worry about digging a deeper hole. The World Series championship that Chase Utley, Hamels, and Lidge brought the Phillies will long be forgotten when Howard is Dave Kingman, and is getting paid 25 million dollars a year to do it.
When's that there "transformation" gonna start?
I tell you what, lets have a free throw contest.......................
Howard is again on a pace to hit 35 120 300, not bad for a Kingman type player.
However, the numbers will be down some, maybe the other guys ain't getting on for him?
Steve
<< <i>Don't you get it Stevek? Howard gets more RBI chances than anyone.
I tell you what, lets have a free throw contest.......................
Howard is again on a pace to hit 35 120 300, not bad for a Kingman type player.
However, the numbers will be down some, maybe the other guys ain't getting on for him?
Steve >>
oh please no, not the free throw contest, please, I'm beggin' ya.......
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Since 2009 here has been Howard's progress:
2010 OPS+ 127
2011 OPS+ 126
2012 OPS+ 91
2013 OPS+ 114
That gives him a total OPS+ of the last four years at 119. Dave kingman's CAREER OPS+ was 115(and in a tougher era to achieve higher OPS+).
Since Howard had some fine years before his transformation, he will be better than Kingman in the end...however, the point was that while he was still at what people considered the top of his game, I proclaimed a Kingman transformation was COMING, and he has done that transformation since that time!
I would also like to point out that he still needs 2,400 career plate appearances to match Kingman's total. I shudder to think what Howard's next 2,400 plate appearances are going to look like. I suspect he will fall into a platoon role to save his percentages(and fool people some more). I'm not even sure if he will be good enough to even have a job long enough to even accumulate another 2,400 more plate appearances, and will retire early(which again will fool people who will then look at his career percentages and ignore that he wasn't good enough to play long).
The next aspect is Howard's so called clutch ability which was hailed so much!
Howard's last four Post Season Series OPS are:
.631
.657
.900
.406
With an amazingly historically bad 36 strikeouts in 75 at bats!!! Hardly the mark of a clutch player. Clutch players in the elite settings are a myth, so that isn't surprising.
In a word, abysmal. Seems he forgot how to be clutch, and he was the final out in at least two of those series! Certainly a man of clutch stature would not be the final out in any series, let alone two! Well, not if he really did have a clutch ability! And he wouldn't strikeout out every other at bat!
SteveK, the Phillies should have listened to my proclamation, because they wouldn't STILL be on the hook for another 95 million dollars for Howard!
I will give Howard his due for his 2006 season(which was HOF caliber), and a few others (which were All-Star Caliber)...but I will give his teammates a lot of the shared credit for his RBI totals(which everyone always seemed to give to Howard alone).
Now, unless Howard does a miracle turnaround, he is really only worthy of being a platoon player, and this happened by age 32!!!
<< <i>I dont have a dog in this fight but isnt the job of the 4 slot to knock the guys in that get on base? Also, players tend to decline at some point in their career but I have to admit, he is doing it earlier than I thought. I never watched Kingman play but when you have a ROY, MVP, WS Champ, HR Champ, etc.....there will alway be high expectations >>
Any hitters job is to use his batting ability to create runs for the team...creating runs isn't just looking at an RBI total though. Four hitters get more RBI opportunities than other slots in the lineup, and four hitters from different teams get unequal RBI opportunities due to the level of ability of their teammates. Basically, just throw RBI totals away if you want to measure the player. There are far better measurements. If you still use RBI to make your determination, then you are about eight years late to the dance.
Howard's decline started when people thought he was still HOF caliber. It was just masked by his high RBI totals(which were greatly enhanced due to his lineup).
If that isn't understood, then I propose a free throw contest between you and I. Whoever makes more free throws wins....only I get to take 20 attempts, and you 10. It is my job to knock the free throws down
Like I said in my post, Howard will end up higher than Kingman, because Howard had a couple of seasons that Kingman never could equal. That was never the point. The point was, that while Howard was declining(and still having good RBI totals due to his teammates), it was fooling people that couldn't see that he was transforming into Kingman, a transformation that he has now completed...and with the Phillies wasting 140 million on Howard, I would say nobody saw the decline coming
Doing a little walk down memory lane and found this gem of a thread. The single only thing Hoopster (now skin2) got wrong was that 2012 was not when Howard transformed to Kingman, or even the bad Greg Vaughn, it was the year he transformed to Mario Mendoza. The Phillies brain trust paid Howard 115 MILLION DOLLARS to play worse than a replacement player for FIVE YEARS after that transformation, wrecking any chance the Phillies had of making the playoffs in not just those years, but for many years since and to come.
Final tally for career WAR: Kingman 17.3, Howard 15.0.
That brain trust seems to have weighed in on the eagles paying big money to that fragile ginger QB instead of sticking with the guy that beat the patriots in the superbowl.
What I learned from this thread is that 4 out of 5 baseball stat geeks seem to like one particular red avatar
When did Howard rip out his Achilles’ tendon? If they paid him stupid money after that, the Phillies management was truly stupid. From what I have read, his baseball career was over after that.
I guess the case wasn't closed after all, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.