Ryan Howard transformation to Dave Kingman thread...

This thread is dedicated to the ongoing progress of Ryan Howard's transformation into Dave Kingman. One cannot knock Howard's 2006-2007 hitting. He was not near Kingman in those two years. Last year he was simply lucky with his men on base hitting, and by having a lot of runners on when he hit. That luck will not continue forever. What looks to be continuing is this...

Ryan Howard
Year....AVG/League AVG....OB%/LG OB%.......SLG%/LG SLG%
2008....251/.271.................339/.343.....................543/.432
2009....252/267..................325/342......................516/.423


Keep in mind that these are supposed to be Howard's prime years!
Lets look at Dave Kingman's LIFETIME totals, which include his prime years, as well as his non-prime years(which Howard hasn't gone through yet).

Dave Kingman
Year.....AVG/League AVG....OB%/LG OB%.......SLG%/LG SLG%
Career..236/262...................302/329....................478/.389

This, of course, is a public service announcement for anybody putting money into Howard's RC cards thinking he will end up an all time great. Sell them while you can.

By the way, Howard turns 30 this November. More PED's anyone?
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Comments

  • Has anyone seen Ice Age III in three D yet ? I hear the reviews aren't that great.
  • .
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  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Laughable - totally laughable with the Howard-Kingman comparison from the forum stat addict.

    ...and you display ignorance when just last season, Howard was number two in the MVP voting, and Kingman never even sniffed an MVP award his entire career.

    Other than Pujols who is playing out of his mind right now, Howard is right up there with HR's and RBI's with the league leaders which is exactly where I want my #4 batter in the lineup to be.

    Case closed.
  • Of course, if you were to take Dave Kingman's career and add a couple of peak seasons equal to Ryan Howard from 2006 to 2007 that is a pretty good career

    So even if Ryan Howard is a virtual clone of Kingman for the next eight to 10 years, he will end up with a pretty good career. Most teams would gladly take a .320 obo and .500 slg for 150 games from their firstbaseman

    (also, NL averages this year are .257/.330/.405, might want to double check some of those stats)
    Tom
  • joestalinjoestalin Posts: 12,758 ✭✭
    I can't wait to see Ryan steal the show from Alberto next monday...oh and how many HR derby crowns does Kingman have?
  • Bottom9thBottom9th Posts: 2,697 ✭✭


    << <i>I can't wait to see Ryan steal the show from Alberto next monday...oh and how many HR derby crowns does Kingman have? >>



    Tell me you're not basing Howard's superstar status on an HR derby crown?
  • TomG,

    You are correct in that Kingman was an above average hitter for his career.

    The ominous thing about Howard is that he is getting old, he still can't hit lefties, and he has already dropped from his peak when the book came out on him.

    Just think, in a few years you have a declining 34 year old with a big swing who cannot hit lefties? He may have some awful years in his decline phase. With the book out out him now, it could get ugly(and quick) when he loses a fraction of bat speed. You may see some .220 Greg Vaughn type years very soon.

    The ignoramous's of the world are fooled by his RBI total(which is a product of some luck and a stacked lineup). Once one of those goes bye bye, those totals will drop. They are already this year as he is on pace for 120. That may seem good, until you look how many guys he has had on base. He is still an above average hitter, no doubt. But he will be Kingman and NOT Foxx, and that is the point.

    SteveK, your biased-ignorant-faulty analysis is not worth responding to analytically. You are welcome to feel any way you please. I put the public service announcement out there for people who have these lofty expectations for Howard's career. Listen, and you may save some money. Be smart, and play on the correct side with your money this time.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • lawnmowermanlawnmowerman Posts: 19,485 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I can't wait to see Ryan steal the show from Alberto next monday...oh and how many HR derby crowns does Kingman have? >>



    Yeah that means alotimage
  • What I read is that Howard will get $15 million in '09, $19 million in '10 and $20 million in '11.

    Which means that after the Phillies are kicking themselves for wasting 39 million dollars in '10 and '11, you will see the end of Howard's career in Philadelphia in '12. Which is just about the time where the Phillies best hitters will all start to decline or be gone because they can't be afforded due to Howard's insane contract.

    So if Howard is still fortunate to still have a beast lineup around him in '11, and manage to get a false 110 RBI, then you will see some idiot GM, like the guy who signed Beltre, ink him to a deal expecting 110 RBI on his team. THe only thing is that the baserunners will not be coming with him, and that will be the official end of the Howard myth, because his RBI will no longer be artificially inflated. The astute player personnel will already know that the transformation will have occured already due to the low AVG/OB%/SLG%, but the fans will now know too.

    So it looks like 2012 will be the official trasnformation to Kingman, both for the fans and the analysts...but he may actually turn into worse. He could become the bad Greg Vaughn!
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  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>TomG,

    You are correct in that Kingman was an above average hitter for his career.

    The ominous thing about Howard is that he is getting old, he still can't hit lefties, and he has already dropped from his peak when the book came out on him.

    Just think, in a few years you have a declining 34 year old with a big swing who cannot hit lefties? He may have some awful years in his decline phase. With the book out out him now, it could get ugly(and quick) when he loses a fraction of bat speed. You may see some .220 Greg Vaughn type years very soon.

    The ignoramous's of the world are fooled by his RBI total(which is a product of some luck and a stacked lineup). Once one of those goes bye bye, those totals will drop. They are already this year as he is on pace for 120. That may seem good, until you look how many guys he has had on base. He is still an above average hitter, no doubt. But he will be Kingman and NOT Foxx, and that is the point.

    SteveK, your biased-ignorant-faulty analysis is not worth responding to analytically. You are welcome to feel any way you please. I put the public service announcement out there for people who have these lofty expectations for Howard's career. Listen, and you may save some money. Be smart, and play on the correct side with your money this time. >>



    You still don't get it and I'm not sure you will anytime soon...analyzing stats is fine, but just statistics alone don't tell the whole story about Ryan Howard.

    PS: Everything I stated in the above post of mine is fact, not conjecture like your comments...my comments are fact.

    I'm not saying at all that I don't like conjecture...that's what sports predictions are, or even "mindless" smack talk just for fun...I do enjoy that...and fortunately most members here can tell the difference, but sadly you cannot seem to differentiate between fact, conjecture, and smack in various posts...and that's your problem.

  • digicatdigicat Posts: 8,686 ✭✭
    It's probably worth noting that by the time he was 29, Dave Kingman was playing for his 6th team.
    My Giants collection want list

    WTB: 2001 Leaf Rookies & Stars Longevity: Ryan Jensen #/25
  • SteveK, unfortunately your 'facts' are about as worthwhile as saying pink, green, and purple are colors that can be found in a crayon box.

    Then you ignore many key pertinent facts.

    In totality, your conclusions are about as valid as saying that SteveK lives in the U.S., the U.S. has a lot of rich and smart people, therefore SteveK is richer and smarter than EVERYONE in countries which have less rich and smart people.

    Finally, what you don't get is that this is a public service announcement for people who are clinging to Ryan Howard as a hero, expecting a HOFer. What you will end up clinging to is a combination of Dave Kingman and Greg Vaughn.

    I'm just looking out for your well being. Embrace my words young man, and then four or five years down the road you will be glad you didnt' stake your emotional well being on Howard's back.

    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>SteveK, unfortunately your 'facts' are about as worthwhile as saying pink, green, and purple are colors that can be found in a crayon box.

    Then you ignore many key pertinent facts.

    In totality, your conclusions are about as valid as saying that SteveK lives in the U.S., the U.S. has a lot of rich and smart people, therefore SteveK is richer and smarter than EVERYONE in countries which have less rich and smart people.

    Finally, what you don't get is that this is a public service announcement for people who are clinging to Ryan Howard as a hero, expecting a HOFer. What you will end up clinging to is a combination of Dave Kingman and Greg Vaughn.

    I'm just looking out for your well being. Embrace my words young man, and then four or five years down the road you will be glad you didnt' stake your emotional well being on Howard's back. >>



    Your stats are probably accurate - I didn't check that or question that...but your analysis of the stats can border on ignorant to pathetic and your conjecture about Ryan Howard is pathetic...and frankly, your jealousy that Howard is not playing on the team you root for, whatever team that is I have no idea, but the jealousy is obvious. Sure is a coincidence that you happened to post this right after the Phillies scored 22 runs..Jealous?...Ha! Ha!...put that in your pipe and smoke it instead of the wacky tobacky or whatever it is you now smoke that gives you delusions about stats. Something, whatever it is, maybe it's sniffing glue or munching on toadstools in your backyard, is creating hallucinations in your brain that a player who last season finished second in the MVP voting at 29 years old, and has already won an MVP award, is suddenly transforming into a player who never came close to an MVP award.

    You should start a career in standup comedy and all you'd have to do is go on stage and say, "A player who finished second in the MVP voting last season at 29 years old, and who has won an MVP award, and who helped his team win a World Series championship last season, and is right up there this season with the league leaders in home runs and RBI's, and you perceive this as some sort of transformation into a lesser player." - You wouldn't have to say anything else - you'd have people laughing in the isles asking you to please say that again and again, so that they can laugh again and again...just like I'm laughing at you now. image

  • Why on earth would I get jealous if the man you like did well? Am I to be jealous of the insecurity of your personality to have to hitch your wagon onto somebody else's success in order for you to feel self worth???

    SteveK, if you don't understand what I am talking about, then you may be dumber than I thought. I already knew you were dumb due to you losing all your money in gambling. Your analysis of baseball has cemented your ignorance of baseball. You are the typical biased ignorant fan.

    Now I am trying to help you out of your insecurities, and your money problems by giving you what will happen in the future to Howard, and all you can say is that Howard was voted second in the MVP last year. You need to understand why the RBI total occured...you still don't, and how that translated into MVP votes(from people who have no clue, much like you). Also, how his teammates being outstanding, lifting the Phillies into first, turned him the majority of his votes. You don't get it.

    When you understand that, and understand what truly measures the batter(and NOT THE LINEUP or team), then you will see why I am showing how Howard is transforming into Dave Kingman. After he is done turning into Kingman, he will turn into the bad Greg Vaughn(the 2001-2002 version).
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Why on earth would I get jealous if the man you like did well? Am I to be jealous of the insecurity of your personality to have to hitch your wagon onto somebody else's success in order for you to feel self worth???

    SteveK, if you don't understand what I am talking about, then you may be dumber than I thought. I already knew you were dumb due to you losing all your money in gambling. Your analysis of baseball has cemented your ignorance of baseball. You are the typical biased ignorant fan.

    Now I am trying to help you out of your insecurities, and your money problems by giving you what will happen in the future to Howard, and all you can say is that Howard was voted second in the MVP last year. You need to understand why the RBI total occured...you still don't, and how that translated into MVP votes(from people who have no clue, much like you). Also, how his teammates being outstanding, lifting the Phillies into first, turned him the majority of his votes. You don't get it.

    When you understand that, and understand what truly measures the batter(and NOT THE LINEUP or team), then you will see why I am showing how Howard is transforming into Dave Kingman. After he is done turning into Kingman, he will turn into the bad Greg Vaughn(the 2001-2002 version). >>



    Hoopster - Yea, you're "right", you're the "genius" with your stats and all those "dumb" Most Valuable Player award voters don't know what they're doing. - Hey I've got an idea for ya...add that to your comedy routine...you can play Vegas and make a small fortune as the funniest entertainer...they'll be waiting in line to see you perform. image
  • SteveK,

    All you really have to do is sit back and watch the transformation develop. He is in his cocoon right now, just waiting to be hatched into Kong Jr. It is getting close. My only question is if he will hatch with the same moppy brown hair coming out of his hat.


    P.S. The baseball writers who vote are baseball ignorant. They may be good at constructing sentences, and they ARE good at creating stories out of nothing(which is what hooks guys like you), but they are not good at the meats and bones of analyzing what creates runs/wins, or knowing the game. Their logic is also quite awful.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    Not for nothing but Kingman could not wear Howard's jock.

    Also, has anyone noticed that he has played a hell of a 1st base this year?

    Much of this also comes from the very same people that 'think' Clemente was a sub par player.


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • I guess Ryan Howard is the new Jim Rice around here

    Whether or not Hoops stats are dumb or not, at least he is willing to take a position. Stevek, before when asked to say exactly where Howard ranks among all Major Leaguers, the answer is never more than "he was second in the MVP voting." There is a huge difference between factual and meaningful

    Earlier in the year when David Ortiz couldn't put his bat within six feet of the ball, I looked up the history of the large sized slugger. Most continue to do well to about age 34, then fall apart completely (Kingman was actually the exception.) The idea of him turning into Greg Vaughan or Dave Kingman is not a foregone conclusion. It is realistic to see him continueing as he is now, then suddenly dropping to Angel Berroa level in a few years. Over the next four to six years Howard could end up with 400 homeruns and 900 walks. Considering his late start that is a very good career
    Tom
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    " and manage to get a false 110 RBI"


    lol, how does anyone get false RBI?

    And I don't want to hear the free throw analogy.


    I do agree the Phillies did pay him a lot of dough.


    But what major league superstar does not get top dollar?


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • Who thinks Clemente is a sub par player?

    Howard is ahead of Kingman now(mainly because of his 2006-2007 hitting), but the book is out on him now, and he is morphing into Kingman. Once a smidge of bat speed leaves him after the next couple of seasons, he will be the 2001 Greg Vaughn.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • Winpitcher,

    You dissapoint. When he goes to a lineup that will give him 50 less runners from scoring position, the new GM and their fans will understand quite quickly what the false 110 RBI are.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • Bottom9thBottom9th Posts: 2,697 ✭✭


    << <i>" and manage to get a false 110 RBI"


    lol, how does anyone get false RBI?

    And I don't want to hear the free throw analogy.


    I do agree the Phillies did pay him a lot of dough.


    But what major league superstar does not get top dollar?


    Steve >>



    I did miss that the first time. What's a false RBI?
  • Oh, if you don't want the free throw analogy, let's go to the local park, and see who can drive in more runners.

    I get to hit with 50 guys on first and third, and you get to hit with six of them on.

    I will get more RBI, but you will cry that it wasn't fair since it was applied to you directly.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    A player could win more games for his team because he has more chances to drive in runs

    then a player that drives in as many (or more) runs with less chances. That is where Hoops fails in his stats.

    According to Hoops the second player is better (and possibly is) the fact remains that the first player

    could win (or play in) more winning games. And his RBI could be the RBI that wins said games.

    I tried to make a similar point in some long forgotten post/thread and was told it was impossible.


    Steve

    Good for you.
  • JackWESQJackWESQ Posts: 2,194
    Well, Howard's OPS has been on the decline since the 2006 season to a current career low of .841; not bad, but 24th in the NL overall and 7th among NL first basemen.

    /s/ JackWESQ
    image
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    I get to hit with 50 guys on first and third, and you get to hit with six of them on.

    I will get more RBI, but you will cry that it wasn't fair since it was applied to you directly.





    Ok so that is your defination of false RBI?


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    When he goes to a lineup that will give him 50 less runners from scoring position, the new GM and their fans will understand quite quickly what the false 110 RBI are.



    That would effect any player, or are you saying it only pertains to Ryan Howard?


    Steve
    Good for you.


  • << <i>A player could win more games for his team because he has more chances to drive in runs

    then a player that drives in as many (or more) runs with less chances. That is where Hoops fails in his stats.

    According to Hoops the second player is better (and possibly is) the fact remains that the first player

    could win (or play in) more winning games. And his RBI could be the RBI that wins said games.

    I tried to make a similar point in some long forgotten post/thread and was told it was impossible.


    Steve >>



    Winpitcher, he is driving in more runs and winning more games, BUT BECAUSE HIS TEAMMATES ARE BETTER! Yes, it is a fact he was involved in more winning games, because he has better teammates. If I were GM, I would rather have the Howard situation too, because that means I have a better lineup/team. I wouldn't be foolish enough when signing him to money to neglect the impact of the hitters around him by giving Howard the lion share of the credit(like the voters did too).

    You will understand this when we go to the park and I get 50 runners on 1st and 3rd, and you get 6...and we wager. Then you will feel the sting.

    Bottom of the 9th, false 110 RBI are simple. A fan or GM will sign(the Gm will sign him) a guy because he had 110 RBI, thinking they will be getting a "110" RBI type guy. Except they fail to realize that once he loses 50 more chances because he is coming to the weaker lineup, he will not get those 110 RBI. The 110 RBI are false because people give him too much of the credit for said RBI, and not enough to the guys who got on base in order for those to occur. He isn't the 110 RBI guy, he came from the slot in the stacked lineup that produced it.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    Winpitcher, he is driving in more runs and winning more games, BUT BECAUSE HIS TEAMMATES ARE BETTER!


    No not better, possibly they are, possibly they are as good!


    That is where you miss the point!

    Of course he has good team mates around him, that goes without saying!

    So are you saying that in 4 or 5 years (when he does not have 50 guys on 3rd) his team mates won't be as good?

    How the hell can you blame him for that?


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hoopster's profane words of wisdom:

    Drum roll please....

    "false 110 RBI"

    image

    Hoopster...please stop...you're giving me a heart attack from laughing too much. "false RBI" - now that is genuinely and originally funny...you are a comedy genius...I sincerely mean that. image
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    Hoops you are correct! They are false RBI! In 5 years when he has no one on base to drive in the only way he could get 110 RBI
    is to hit 110 home runs!


    And of course by then he will be on the downside.


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Hoops you are correct! They are false RBI! In 5 years when he has no one on base to drive in the only way he could get 110 RBI
    is to hit 110 home runs!


    And of course by then he will be on the downside.


    Steve >>



    Steve,,,yea but they would be "false home runs" according to comedy genius Hoopster.image


  • << <i>Winpitcher, he is driving in more runs and winning more games, BUT BECAUSE HIS TEAMMATES ARE BETTER!


    No not better, possibly they are, possibly they are as good!


    That is where you miss the point!

    Of course he has good team mates around him, that goes without saying!

    So are you saying that in 4 or 5 years (when he does not have 50 guys on 3rd) his team mates won't be as good?

    How the hell can you blame him for that?


    Steve >>




    Winpitcher, If he hits the same, and he has 50 less RBI because his teammates are not as good at getting on base, I wouldn't blame him for that....just like I wouldn't give him inflated credit for having guys in front of him who get on at a high clip and can run the bases.

    His RBI total is fooling people because 1)he gets a lot of chances, and 2)he has hit quite well with men on. This portion is a credit to him, but he will NOT sustain that type of men on base hitting.

    So, as I said a long time ago, his higher RBI total are nto a complete mirage, because he has earned a lot of them by hitting well with men on base(like last year). But this will nto continue.

    The RBI chances reflect the performance of his teammates, and it is foolish to judge a hitter by how good his teammates ahve done. When you look at his AVG/OB%/SLG% this directly relays what HE has done, and not his teammates. This is leading to the Kingman path. When the RBI chances fall, and his men on hitting revert to normalcy, the RBI's will slow down immensly.


    Again, we need to go to the park and do the hitting for it to be understood(if it hasn't already). Stevek, you game?
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    Skip that is precisely why some of us call it a TEAM sport.

    I won a fastpitch softball game last night. I got the win, but without the 8 other players

    I surely would have lost.


    We all get the fact that a player could be ranked below another player simply because he gets to hit MORE OFTEN

    with men on base then some other player that does not have that luxury. However, you have NO WAY of knowing what the future

    holds for anyone. For all you know the Phillies could trade for/sign/draft great players in the next few years and Howard will still have the

    same luxury of hitting with men on base!


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭
    and come on now about the points about the MVP award voters...yes some years they get it slightly wrong in my opinion, but it's not like they're getting it totally wrong...perhaps a spot or so could be switched around but it's never dramatic...and to imply the MVP award doesn't mean anything in how effective and important and productive is a player, would frankly be just plain silly.
  • Winpitcher, it is a TEAM sport, and that is my freaking point the whole time!!!!

    It is a team sport, yet Howard gets too much credit(in the form of RBI), for what the rest of his team is doing!

    Howard may have the same luxury, but an astute observer will recognize WHY he has the totals, and NOT give him 'false' credit. You guys like that word image

    I can't predict the future for certain, but I can certainly get a read on where it is heading for a hitter. I have laid that out.

    In a few years, we won't have to worry about how many chances he is getting, because when he is hitting .225 with a .480 SLG percentage, his RBI will tank no matter how many opportunities he has. ANd that day is coming sooner than Philly fans think! I am just trying to soften the blow for them by telling them ahead of time.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • JackWESQJackWESQ Posts: 2,194
    Speaking of RBIs, why is a runner on first base NOT considered in "scoring position"? And please don't say that it is because the runner will not (or is unlikely) to score on a single. If there is a runner on first base, he is in a position to score a run; likely on a double or triple and definitively on a home run.

    I looked at the cumulative MLB numbers for the 2008 season. In total, there were 29194 singles and 14778 extra base hits; just about a 2 to 1 ratio. In 2007, there were 29885 singles and 15092 extra base hits; again, just about a 2 to 1 ratio. With those kind of numbers, how is a runner on first base not in scoring position?

    /s/ JackWESQ
    image
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Winpitcher, he is driving in more runs and winning more games, BUT BECAUSE HIS TEAMMATES ARE BETTER!


    No not better, possibly they are, possibly they are as good!


    That is where you miss the point!

    Of course he has good team mates around him, that goes without saying!

    So are you saying that in 4 or 5 years (when he does not have 50 guys on 3rd) his team mates won't be as good?

    How the hell can you blame him for that?


    Steve >>




    Winpitcher, If he hits the same, and he has 50 less RBI because his teammates are not as good at getting on base, I wouldn't blame him for that....just like I wouldn't give him inflated credit for having guys in front of him who get on at a high clip and can run the bases.

    His RBI total is fooling people because 1)he gets a lot of chances, and 2)he has hit quite well with men on. This portion is a credit to him, but he will NOT sustain that type of men on base hitting.

    So, as I said a long time ago, his higher RBI total are nto a complete mirage, because he has earned a lot of them by hitting well with men on base(like last year). But this will nto continue.

    The RBI chances reflect the performance of his teammates, and it is foolish to judge a hitter by how good his teammates ahve done. When you look at his AVG/OB%/SLG% this directly relays what HE has done, and not his teammates. This is leading to the Kingman path. When the RBI chances fall, and his men on hitting revert to normalcy, the RBI's will slow down immensly.


    Again, we need to go to the park and do the hitting for it to be understood(if it hasn't already). Stevek, you game? >>



    <<< So, as I said a long time ago, his higher RBI total are nto a complete mirage >>>

    I thought you said it was "false" - now it's a mirage? LOL
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭

    Winpitcher, it is a TEAM sport, and that is my freaking point the whole time!!!!


    lol then what are we arguing about?


    Jack I think it does have to do with not be able to score on a single from first.

    sorry for saying it.


    Steve
    Good for you.
  • A guy on first isn't considered an RBI opp, in the sense that second and third are, simply because the chance of scoring from first is dramatically different. Usually the TOP hitters only drove in like 10% of the runners from first, and about 35% from second. And about 70% from third. The great thing is that the retrosheet play by play data knows ALL this info. No need to guess.


    Winpitcher, it is a TEAM sport, and that is my freaking point the whole time!!!!

    It is a team sport, yet Howard gets too much credit(in the form of RBI), for what the rest of his team is doing!

    Howard may have the same luxury, but an astute observer will recognize WHY he has the totals, and NOT give him 'false' credit. You guys like that word

    I can't predict the future for certain, but I can certainly get a read on where it is heading for a hitter. I have laid that out.

    In a few years, we won't have to worry about how many chances he is getting, because when he is hitting .225 with a .480 SLG percentage, his RBI will tank no matter how many opportunities he has. ANd that day is coming sooner than Philly fans think! I am just trying to soften the blow for them by telling them ahead of time.

    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,829 ✭✭✭
    3rd is considered simply because you can score without the benefit of a hit.

    Steve
    Good for you.
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hoopster - I'm not going to take you up on your silly gambling offers...I wouldn't do that even if I was a gambler, wasting my time with you...but I promise if you come out with your comedy CD, I will buy it because you are a laugh riot.

    Let's hear more........image
  • Stevek,

    When that CD comes out, wait a few years, and the CU board will be treating it as Nostradamus. If you hold on to it, you will have something good.

    Another day, another time, coach Genero.
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>A guy on first isn't considered an RBI opp, in the sense that second and third are, simply because the chance of scoring from first is dramatically different. Usually the TOP hitters only drove in like 10% of the runners from first, and about 35% from second. And about 70% from third. The great thing is that the retrosheet play by play data knows ALL this info. No need to guess.


    Winpitcher, it is a TEAM sport, and that is my freaking point the whole time!!!!

    It is a team sport, yet Howard gets too much credit(in the form of RBI), for what the rest of his team is doing!

    Howard may have the same luxury, but an astute observer will recognize WHY he has the totals, and NOT give him 'false' credit. You guys like that word

    I can't predict the future for certain, but I can certainly get a read on where it is heading for a hitter. I have laid that out.

    In a few years, we won't have to worry about how many chances he is getting, because when he is hitting .225 with a .480 SLG percentage, his RBI will tank no matter how many opportunities he has. ANd that day is coming sooner than Philly fans think! I am just trying to soften the blow for them by telling them ahead of time. >>



    Well excuse Ryan Howard for hitting in the 4th spot, and doing what he's supposed to do...hit homers and drive in runs...and somehow last season he musta conned the MVP voters into voting him only second to Pujols...please excuse him Hoopster...Ryan didn't mean to do it.
  • I thought you'd all enjoy this............


    Proverbs 18:2

    "A fool finds no pleasure in understanding, but delights in airing his own opinions"


    image
  • Before I bolt out...

    SteveK, Howard does not seek apologies. IN fact, I would guess that he himself would recognize the reason why he gets soo many RBI.

    The people that owe apologies are the ones who vote Howard the MVP, or give Howard so much credit base on RBI. Who do they owe the apologies to?

    Utley, Victorino, Werth, Rollins, etc... Utley is by far their best player. Except for JoeStalin's Ted Williams comparisons with Utley, I dont hear anything about him. He takes second fiddle to a vastly inferior player, mainly because of RBI total.

    SteveK, if you start touting Utley, you won't get any arguments out of me....and that would eliminate your ANti-Philly theory about me.

    Everyone always uses TEAM, but in cases like this, they truly forget that. When using RBI in Howard's case, they really forget that.

    Edmundfitzgerald, that proverb applies to 90% of baseball fans, mainly because they don't know all the proper information. A good trip around the retrosheet sight would eliminate half the arguing simply becasue what is at work would be understood better(and more accurately).
    Truth, Justice, and the American way.........in sports evaluating image
  • Bottom9thBottom9th Posts: 2,697 ✭✭


    << <i>False RBIs >>



    Thanks for that insight Tom!
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Before I bolt out...

    SteveK, Howard does not seek apologies. IN fact, I would guess that he himself would recognize the reason why he gets soo many RBI.

    The people that owe apologies are the ones who vote Howard the MVP, or give Howard so much credit base on RBI. Who do they owe the apologies to?

    Utley, Victorino, Werth, Rollins, etc... Utley is by far their best player. Except for JoeStalin's Ted Williams comparisons with Utley, I dont hear anything about him. He takes second fiddle to a vastly inferior player, mainly because of RBI total.

    SteveK, if you start touting Utley, you won't get any arguments out of me....and that would eliminate your ANti-Philly theory about me.

    Everyone always uses TEAM, but in cases like this, they truly forget that. When using RBI in Howard's case, they really forget that.

    Edmundfitzgerald, that proverb applies to 90% of baseball fans, mainly because they don't know all the proper information. A good trip around the retrosheet sight would eliminate half the arguing simply becasue what is at work would be understood better(and more accurately). >>



    <<< I would guess that he himself would recognize the reason why he gets soo many RBI. >>>

    Could it be talent?
  • stevekstevek Posts: 21,909 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hoopster - what's funny about you is I think you honestly believe that nobody comprehends your ideas...you keep repeating the same thing over and over again....you would make a good parrot.

    Everyone here gets what you're saying, it's grade school sports comprehension really, but none of your ideas matter...the only thing that does matter is the fact that Ryan Howard drives in a lot of runs, and hits a lot of home runs, and helped the Phillies win a championship and hopefully many more....and as a Phillies fan that's all I care about. Case closed.

    PS: Enjoy the rest of your summer off and good luck with your going from Grade School into High School. It's a big step but in six or seven years I think one day you'll eventually graduate. image
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