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Platinum just fell off a cliff

GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,891 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    Actually the it found the cliff on Friday image
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,891 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Me thinks an adjustment is on the way....what say ye???


    image
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    TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    I say ne.....

    The coins have already been minted with platinum likely purchased at much higher prices and they are not going to lose money on collector coins.....
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    Well I guess it's about time all those needing back dates to be buying. I think this market will actually help the 1/10 and 1/4 ounce sizes as far as collectors are concerned. I just read this and it could be another boom for Platinum even bigger than used in autos, of course this could be 5 to 10 years off.


    'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution
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    << <i>The coins have already been minted with platinum likely purchased at much higher prices and they are not going to lose money on collector coins..... >>



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    Sorry for the hiccups
    image
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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,890 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Me thinks an adjustment is on the way....what say ye???


    image >>



    When coins ain't worth the money image
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    That was quite a fall. Hopefully it will rebound.
    --->imageimageimageimage<---
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    TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    I want to get some of the backdates now image
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    Platinum down from $2100 to $1560 in one month.

    Ouch. Gold and silver are holding up much better.

    Will the Mint reprice the platinum proofs and w-uncirculateds?

    The Mint was quick to pull for repricing as platinum was moving up, but it doesn't seem that they have any plan for what to do now that platinum is falling. To me, that shows a real lack of regard for collectors.

    The sporadic way the Mint pulls these coins, seemingly at whim, and reprices them, makes it seem like the Mint doesn't have any plan in place, and that's a pretty lousy way to do business.

    Whatever system they have isn't going to be perfect; I see the real problem as the lack of information about what their policy is.

    I think the policy they have is less important than having one and sharing it with collectors / the market.

    If it was my decision, I'd want some kind of pricing system in place that necessarily took the Mint's costs into account as a floor, allowed the Mint to fluctuate prices up on a daily basis with bullion price, but would still protect early purchasers from significant issue price declines if bullion dropped.


    For instance, the Mint could price things at a set percentage above their bullion acquisition cost at striking, marked up to cover costs and use that as a price floor that could fluctuate up daily, if necessary, with bullion price. I'm assuming the Mint strikes these coins in batches, and the price should really be tied to whatever they paid for the bullion used in each batch (ensuring they are never in a loss position).

    For instance, if the Mint purchased platinum bullion for the first run at $1800 an ounce, and the markup is 20%, they coul base the prices at $2160 per ounce (staggered, as they do, so that smaller coins have a slightly higher premium to bullion than the larger coins). That number would be a set price floor until the first batch is sold out -- the Mint could reprice above that floor, but would not drop below it.

    So if platinum climbed from their price of $1800 to $2400 an ounce, as melt closed in on the $2160 per ounce price, the Mint could start adjusting prices upwards to 2% over daily spot, and make money off the increased bullion price.

    If spot then crashed from $2400 to $1500, the Mint would keep prices at 2% over spot during the drop from $2400 to $2160, and pricing would stay at the $2160 floor for the subsequent drop from $2160 to $1500. Prices would never drop below the Mint's original price, which would insulate the Mint from the downside of bullion fluctuation and also help insulate collectors who purchased early from getting burned by subsequent lower issue prices).

    Collectors and speculators might still have an incentive to buy the first run at $1500 spot with the $2160 issue price, since the higher premium to melt would result in lower interest, lower sales, and lower mintage figures, which might keep secondary market prices inflated once sales ended.

    Assuming the initial run sells out despite the high premium to melt, and a second run was required, the Mint could raise its premium a bit to protect the first run buyers from a big mintage as the second run buyers swoop in. So if the initial run was at $1800 + 20%, and the Mint purchases the bullion for the second run at $1400, it wouldn't set at +20% ($1680, which would reward fence sitters, who might buy a significant quantity and raise mintages to the detriment of early purchasers), but set them at an in-between point, like +30%, which would make the price $1920-- still pass the savings of some of the bullion repricing off to those who waited, while keeping prices high enough to ensure the possibility of lower mintages that might protect the early buyers a bit.
    Dan
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    TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    "For instance, the Mint could price things at a set percentage above their bullion acquisition cost at striking, marked up to cover costs and use that as a price floor that could fluctuate up daily, if necessary, with bullion price. I'm assuming the Mint strikes these coins in batches, and the price should really be tied to whatever they paid for the bullion used in each batch (ensuring they are never in a loss position)."

    I would think they are still on there first batch run of these coins and that is why prices will not drop.
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
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    << <i>Well I guess it's about time all those needing back dates to be buying. I think this market will actually help the 1/10 and 1/4 ounce sizes as far as collectors are concerned. I just read this and it could be another boom for Platinum even bigger than used in autos, of course this could be 5 to 10 years off.
    'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution >>



    Looks good for platinum mine owners, but maybe not so good for us collectors. One little wrinkle that I noticed in the article: "Combined with another catalyst, such as platinum, that can produce hydrogen gas from water, the system can duplicate the water splitting reaction that occurs during photosynthesis."

    If there's more abundant (i.e., cheaper) catalyst that can be used, will they even bother using platinum?
    Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.

    my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
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    TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    Any new potential use for platinum can only help the value of the metal.
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,890 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Someone could print this thread off and send it to the Secretary of the Treasury.
    If Congress gets wind of this , they may go into an emergency session and this will cost the taxpayers an additional trillion dollars, so I say " POOF THE THREAD"


    image
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    I would think they are still on there first batch run of these coins and that is why prices will not drop.

    @The Raven -- I suspect you are probably right. Still, they adjusted prices upwards as platinum increased, but aren't doing anything now that it's crashed.

    Maybe their repricing reflects high bullion acquisition costs instead of profiteering, but I suspect that they did one run, early in the year.

    Platinum started the year at below $1600 an ounce, and within two months popped to $2200 a month. It's hard to say what the Mint's acquisition cost was, though I suspect it purchased what it needed before the pop.

    The 2007 reverse set pricing indicates that's the case-- those coins were minted before the platinum spot shot up, and the repricing only reflects the Mint wanting to take advantage of that.

    No matter what, it would potential buyers tremendously if we knew what the Mint's intentions were.

    If issue prices aren't going to be adjusted downwards for the 2008s, let us know.

    If they might be adjusted downwards, but there's a floor below which prices won't drop, let us know.

    If they have some policy that they are using to set prices, let us know.

    The way the repricing has happened this year is just ridiculous. One day coins are available, the next they disappear from the Mint's website with no information, only to reappear weeks later with a price that seems to be have been set at random. Did the Mint Director throw a dart at a dartboard? Did some marketing guy just pick a number from a hat? Who knows?

    All I do know is that there is a complete disconnect now between the issue price on the platinum collector coins and what the bullion market is, and we have no idea what, if anything, the Mint intends to do from here. I think we deserve better than that.
    Dan
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    GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭
    Just gets more and more interesting for we plat collectors. Also seems to clearly demonstrate how much big-time speculators influence the price!
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    If Congress gets wind of this , they may go into an emergency session and this will cost the taxpayers an additional trillion dollars...

    @TwoSides2aCoin

    I recognize you are being funny, but the job of Congress is to run the country.

    The Mint doesn't have such a broad mission.

    It makes our circulating coins, bullion coins, and coins for collectors.

    With collector coins, even if as a matter of bureaucratic necessity we have limited or no input into what the Mint's policies are, there is no reason the Mint can't share those policies with us.

    This information should be transparent; there's no national security interest at stake, and as one of the few areas where the government actually makes a profit, it isn't unreasonable to ask for some disclosure and hope that there is some logic behind its policies.

    You might be content to accept whatever the Mint does without question or comment, I don't think there is any harm in expressing frustration with the Mint's less logical policies and suggesting ways that things could be better.

    The interests of collectors and the hobby as a whole SHOULD be part of the Mint's interests as well.

    We aren't dogs waiting for scraps thrown from the master's table. We are the consumers for the Mint's goods.
    Dan
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    sfs2002usasfs2002usa Posts: 818 ✭✭✭
    We may see sub 1.5K soon. It's amazing how quickly the market dipped in response
    to high gas prices and low SUV sales. Fitting for the OPEC naboobs to buy precious
    metals with their ill gotten gains and end up less than even.
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,891 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold is under $900.....

    image
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I bought each issue of 2008 Plats this year when they first became available and if the Mint drops pricing on them now, I will be doubly screwed:

    1) I will have bought at a high price with no ability to return them for a refund at this point.

    2) The low mintage coins that I thought that I bought - will no longer be low mintage, and any potential for price appreciation will be greatly diminished.

    nycounsel is right about Mint policy - they should be accountable to their "customer base" in making their policies clear. Not doing so is typical government incompetance or arrogance - take your pick.

    About the price of platinum, it's such an important metal industrially that I have no concerns about where the price is headed ultimately. This is a good buying opportunity and nothing more than that.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    Back in March I made a prediction (half way down the page) for plat to fall to about $1500 an ounce within 6-12 months. No one seemed to care then...

    I still love my plat coins and maybe catching up on some past issues will be easier now.

    Eric


    EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
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    lkrarecoinslkrarecoins Posts: 2,137 ✭✭✭
    I sold my only platinum american eagles 2 Fridays ago image
    In Loving Memory of my Dad......My best friend, My inspiration, and My Coin Collecting Partner

    "La Vostra Nonna Ha Faccia Del Fungo"
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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,890 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I sold my only platinum american eagles 2 Fridays ago image >>


    that's because you like rare coins, admit it image
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It will fluctuate.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    chabot510chabot510 Posts: 1,291
    all commodities have fallen off a cliff today. natural gas fell off a huge cliff last month
    Nick
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    I returned some 2008-W APE unc on day 30. I hope they don't bi**h too much.
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    TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    I think that they don't have a policy, that would seem to be the government way.

    Also I think that platinum is such a tiny portion of there buisness that they don't care about it.
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
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    renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Me thinks no price change and new low mintage year beating 2004 proofs and 2006 uncs.
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    FullStrikeFullStrike Posts: 4,353 ✭✭✭
    I got about 2 1/2 oz of BU Plat to ship back. I ain't about to take the risk of the Mint having a fire sale in December. image
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    << <i>I sold my only platinum american eagles 2 Fridays ago image >>



    Damn good timing lol...

    I hope these metals keep dropping a bit but I bet they won't go to far...

    With the dollar still very weak and the inflation risk still there, things like gold and Plat will still be a good hedge!
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    FullStrikeFullStrike Posts: 4,353 ✭✭✭
    Can anyone enlighten me about the Mints 30 day return policy? I let some of my coins sit at the Post Office about 10 days before I picked them up - was waiting for all of them to arrive. I'm currently laid-off, my PO Box is 40 miles away and I don't like to drive up there if I'm not working.

    Anyway, is it 30 days after they arrive at the Post Office or 30 days after I decided to pick them up? After a while the PO would return the goods so leaving them there wouldn't be a tactic to play the market. image
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm pretty sure that the return policy is 30 days from the date of purchase (and maybe a day or two of grace period.)

    Added: On the back of the order summary that came with your order, the policy says - 30 days from the receipt of the order.

    I guess that it is somewhat subject to interpretation, but if you can document when the order was received, then you might have a leg to stand on.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Well I guess it's about time all those needing back dates to be buying. I think this market will actually help the 1/10 and 1/4 ounce sizes as far as collectors are concerned. I just read this and it could be another boom for Platinum even bigger than used in autos, of course this could be 5 to 10 years off.


    'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution >>



    Buying? I don't think any sellers will drop their prices to match the market price, they are still charging more than the Mint for Proofs and W mints. So back dates do not seem to be an option.

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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    Buying? I don't think any sellers will drop their prices to match the market price, they are still charging more than the Mint for Proofs and W mints. So back dates do not seem to be an option.

    that might hold for the short run, but if platinum stays at these levels, some holders will cut their losses and sell.
    Dan
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Buying? I don't think any sellers will drop their prices to match the market price, they are still charging more than the Mint for Proofs and W mints. So back dates do not seem to be an option.

    that might hold for the short run, but if platinum stays at these levels, some holders will cut their losses and sell. >>



    I hope so, but right now they are claiming extreme rarity and asking prices are off the deep end (higher than the US mint).
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    Looking at Ebay they seem to be going down in price, many early dates are under $200. In fact when was the last time you've seen a 2004 W Proof for under $800 at a retail shop?

    2004 proof
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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Back in March I made a prediction (half way down the page) for plat to fall to about $1500 an ounce within 6-12 months. No one seemed to care then...

    I still love my plat coins and maybe catching up on some past issues will be easier now.

    Eric >>



    Good call ... Plat. may break the $1500 level this week. Gold below $900 ... even rhodium is below $8k
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Looking at Ebay they seem to be going down in price, many early dates are under $200. In fact when was the last time you've seen a 2004 W Proof for under $800 at a retail shop?

    2004 proof >>



    Almost $8000/oz. How many can I get?image
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    aficionadoaficionado Posts: 2,309 ✭✭✭
    Platinum is falling due to slow car sales, the dollar getting stronger and

    the possibility of electric cars. Maybe we've turned the corner and it's just a matter of time.


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    BECOKABECOKA Posts: 16,957 ✭✭✭
    Can the mint cost average? i.e. buy at current pricing to offset earlier purchases at higher prices?
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    BBNBBN Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭
    I feel sorry for those that bought heavily at $2000-2200


    *edit*...well maybe not. That's the risk you take

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    TheRavenTheRaven Posts: 4,143 ✭✭✭✭
    You should be able to find platinum cheaper if you look hard enough.....

    2004 proofs for $795.00..... a bit cheaper then normal.
    Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
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    gecko109gecko109 Posts: 8,231


    << <i>I feel sorry for those that bought heavily at $2000-2200


    *edit*...well maybe not. That's the risk you take >>





    Platinum is just twice the price of gold right now even though there is over 25 times the amount of gold coming out of the ground than platinum. Add in the fact that platinum is a much needed metal for industry, and its a wonder that platinum isnt closer to 5-6 times gold.
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    coolestcoolest Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭


    << <i>You should be able to find platinum cheaper if you look hard enough.....

    2004 proofs for $795.00..... a bit cheaper then normal. >>



    You are talking 1/10 oz.? Have people actually been paying $8000/oz. for these Proof coins?
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,891 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>If Congress gets wind of this , they may go into an emergency session and this will cost the taxpayers an additional trillion dollars...

    @TwoSides2aCoin

    I recognize you are being funny, but the job of Congress is to run the country.

    The Mint doesn't have such a broad mission.

    It makes our circulating coins, bullion coins, and coins for collectors.

    With collector coins, even if as a matter of bureaucratic necessity we have limited or no input into what the Mint's policies are, there is no reason the Mint can't share those policies with us.

    This information should be transparent; there's no national security interest at stake, and as one of the few areas where the government actually makes a profit, it isn't unreasonable to ask for some disclosure and hope that there is some logic behind its policies.

    You might be content to accept whatever the Mint does without question or comment, I don't think there is any harm in expressing frustration with the Mint's less logical policies and suggesting ways that things could be better.

    The interests of collectors and the hobby as a whole SHOULD be part of the Mint's interests as well.

    We aren't dogs waiting for scraps thrown from the master's table. We are the consumers for the Mint's goods. >>



    nycounsel, is this of interest?? Public Enterprise Fund (PEF) Report.....looks like it trails by 12 months.

    Mint Link
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    nycounselnycounsel Posts: 1,229 ✭✭
    Thanks Goldbully -- these reports are of interest, though they really don't provide much in the way of details.

    Still, there was this gem from the 2d Quarter 2007 report, page 3:

    "Year-to-Date Bullion Revenues: Year-to-date bullion revenues through the second quarter of FY 2007 totaled $222 million -- down by 6% from the same period of FY 2006. (See Table #1)

    This decrease resulted from a decrease in orders attributable to the increase in precious metals prices."


    It's good to see that the Mint has recognized a relationship between price and demand!
    Dan
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,891 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Thanks Goldbully -- these reports are of interest, though they really don't provide much in the way of details.

    Still, there was this gem from the 2d Quarter 2007 report, page 3:

    "Year-to-Date Bullion Revenues: Year-to-date bullion revenues through the second quarter of FY 2007 totaled $222 million -- down by 6% from the same period of FY 2006. (See Table #1)

    This decrease resulted from a decrease in orders attributable to the increase in precious metals prices."


    It's good to see that the Mint has recognized a relationship between price and demand! >>



    I guess they bought a lot of platinum at inflated prices.

    Currently, the 2008 plat eagles cannot possibly be saleable....will the Mint recognize this relationship???? image
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,891 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How low will it go??????

    image
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,402 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's not a cliff. It's a double black diamond run, with moguls, through the trees!image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,891 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It's not a cliff. It's a double black diamond run, with moguls, through the trees!image >>



    Very observant and descriptive, jmski52!!! image
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