Platinum just fell off a cliff
Goldbully
Posts: 17,457 ✭✭✭✭✭
Goldbully
Posts: 17,457 ✭✭✭✭✭
Goldbully
Posts: 17,457 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
The coins have already been minted with platinum likely purchased at much higher prices and they are not going to lose money on collector coins.....
'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution
<< <i>The coins have already been minted with platinum likely purchased at much higher prices and they are not going to lose money on collector coins..... >>
<< <i>Me thinks an adjustment is on the way....what say ye???
When coins ain't worth the money
Ouch. Gold and silver are holding up much better.
Will the Mint reprice the platinum proofs and w-uncirculateds?
The Mint was quick to pull for repricing as platinum was moving up, but it doesn't seem that they have any plan for what to do now that platinum is falling. To me, that shows a real lack of regard for collectors.
The sporadic way the Mint pulls these coins, seemingly at whim, and reprices them, makes it seem like the Mint doesn't have any plan in place, and that's a pretty lousy way to do business.
Whatever system they have isn't going to be perfect; I see the real problem as the lack of information about what their policy is.
I think the policy they have is less important than having one and sharing it with collectors / the market.
If it was my decision, I'd want some kind of pricing system in place that necessarily took the Mint's costs into account as a floor, allowed the Mint to fluctuate prices up on a daily basis with bullion price, but would still protect early purchasers from significant issue price declines if bullion dropped.
For instance, the Mint could price things at a set percentage above their bullion acquisition cost at striking, marked up to cover costs and use that as a price floor that could fluctuate up daily, if necessary, with bullion price. I'm assuming the Mint strikes these coins in batches, and the price should really be tied to whatever they paid for the bullion used in each batch (ensuring they are never in a loss position).
For instance, if the Mint purchased platinum bullion for the first run at $1800 an ounce, and the markup is 20%, they coul base the prices at $2160 per ounce (staggered, as they do, so that smaller coins have a slightly higher premium to bullion than the larger coins). That number would be a set price floor until the first batch is sold out -- the Mint could reprice above that floor, but would not drop below it.
So if platinum climbed from their price of $1800 to $2400 an ounce, as melt closed in on the $2160 per ounce price, the Mint could start adjusting prices upwards to 2% over daily spot, and make money off the increased bullion price.
If spot then crashed from $2400 to $1500, the Mint would keep prices at 2% over spot during the drop from $2400 to $2160, and pricing would stay at the $2160 floor for the subsequent drop from $2160 to $1500. Prices would never drop below the Mint's original price, which would insulate the Mint from the downside of bullion fluctuation and also help insulate collectors who purchased early from getting burned by subsequent lower issue prices).
Collectors and speculators might still have an incentive to buy the first run at $1500 spot with the $2160 issue price, since the higher premium to melt would result in lower interest, lower sales, and lower mintage figures, which might keep secondary market prices inflated once sales ended.
Assuming the initial run sells out despite the high premium to melt, and a second run was required, the Mint could raise its premium a bit to protect the first run buyers from a big mintage as the second run buyers swoop in. So if the initial run was at $1800 + 20%, and the Mint purchases the bullion for the second run at $1400, it wouldn't set at +20% ($1680, which would reward fence sitters, who might buy a significant quantity and raise mintages to the detriment of early purchasers), but set them at an in-between point, like +30%, which would make the price $1920-- still pass the savings of some of the bullion repricing off to those who waited, while keeping prices high enough to ensure the possibility of lower mintages that might protect the early buyers a bit.
I would think they are still on there first batch run of these coins and that is why prices will not drop.
<< <i>Well I guess it's about time all those needing back dates to be buying. I think this market will actually help the 1/10 and 1/4 ounce sizes as far as collectors are concerned. I just read this and it could be another boom for Platinum even bigger than used in autos, of course this could be 5 to 10 years off.
'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution >>
Looks good for platinum mine owners, but maybe not so good for us collectors. One little wrinkle that I noticed in the article: "Combined with another catalyst, such as platinum, that can produce hydrogen gas from water, the system can duplicate the water splitting reaction that occurs during photosynthesis."
If there's more abundant (i.e., cheaper) catalyst that can be used, will they even bother using platinum?
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
If Congress gets wind of this , they may go into an emergency session and this will cost the taxpayers an additional trillion dollars, so I say " POOF THE THREAD"
@The Raven -- I suspect you are probably right. Still, they adjusted prices upwards as platinum increased, but aren't doing anything now that it's crashed.
Maybe their repricing reflects high bullion acquisition costs instead of profiteering, but I suspect that they did one run, early in the year.
Platinum started the year at below $1600 an ounce, and within two months popped to $2200 a month. It's hard to say what the Mint's acquisition cost was, though I suspect it purchased what it needed before the pop.
The 2007 reverse set pricing indicates that's the case-- those coins were minted before the platinum spot shot up, and the repricing only reflects the Mint wanting to take advantage of that.
No matter what, it would potential buyers tremendously if we knew what the Mint's intentions were.
If issue prices aren't going to be adjusted downwards for the 2008s, let us know.
If they might be adjusted downwards, but there's a floor below which prices won't drop, let us know.
If they have some policy that they are using to set prices, let us know.
The way the repricing has happened this year is just ridiculous. One day coins are available, the next they disappear from the Mint's website with no information, only to reappear weeks later with a price that seems to be have been set at random. Did the Mint Director throw a dart at a dartboard? Did some marketing guy just pick a number from a hat? Who knows?
All I do know is that there is a complete disconnect now between the issue price on the platinum collector coins and what the bullion market is, and we have no idea what, if anything, the Mint intends to do from here. I think we deserve better than that.
@TwoSides2aCoin
I recognize you are being funny, but the job of Congress is to run the country.
The Mint doesn't have such a broad mission.
It makes our circulating coins, bullion coins, and coins for collectors.
With collector coins, even if as a matter of bureaucratic necessity we have limited or no input into what the Mint's policies are, there is no reason the Mint can't share those policies with us.
This information should be transparent; there's no national security interest at stake, and as one of the few areas where the government actually makes a profit, it isn't unreasonable to ask for some disclosure and hope that there is some logic behind its policies.
You might be content to accept whatever the Mint does without question or comment, I don't think there is any harm in expressing frustration with the Mint's less logical policies and suggesting ways that things could be better.
The interests of collectors and the hobby as a whole SHOULD be part of the Mint's interests as well.
We aren't dogs waiting for scraps thrown from the master's table. We are the consumers for the Mint's goods.
to high gas prices and low SUV sales. Fitting for the OPEC naboobs to buy precious
metals with their ill gotten gains and end up less than even.
1) I will have bought at a high price with no ability to return them for a refund at this point.
2) The low mintage coins that I thought that I bought - will no longer be low mintage, and any potential for price appreciation will be greatly diminished.
nycounsel is right about Mint policy - they should be accountable to their "customer base" in making their policies clear. Not doing so is typical government incompetance or arrogance - take your pick.
About the price of platinum, it's such an important metal industrially that I have no concerns about where the price is headed ultimately. This is a good buying opportunity and nothing more than that.
I knew it would happen.
I still love my plat coins and maybe catching up on some past issues will be easier now.
Eric
"La Vostra Nonna Ha Faccia Del Fungo"
<< <i>I sold my only platinum american eagles 2 Fridays ago
that's because you like rare coins, admit it
I knew it would happen.
Also I think that platinum is such a tiny portion of there buisness that they don't care about it.
<< <i>I sold my only platinum american eagles 2 Fridays ago
Damn good timing lol...
I hope these metals keep dropping a bit but I bet they won't go to far...
With the dollar still very weak and the inflation risk still there, things like gold and Plat will still be a good hedge!
Check my ebay BIN or Make Offers!!
Anyway, is it 30 days after they arrive at the Post Office or 30 days after I decided to pick them up? After a while the PO would return the goods so leaving them there wouldn't be a tactic to play the market.
Added: On the back of the order summary that came with your order, the policy says - 30 days from the receipt of the order.
I guess that it is somewhat subject to interpretation, but if you can document when the order was received, then you might have a leg to stand on.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Well I guess it's about time all those needing back dates to be buying. I think this market will actually help the 1/10 and 1/4 ounce sizes as far as collectors are concerned. I just read this and it could be another boom for Platinum even bigger than used in autos, of course this could be 5 to 10 years off.
'Major discovery' from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution >>
Buying? I don't think any sellers will drop their prices to match the market price, they are still charging more than the Mint for Proofs and W mints. So back dates do not seem to be an option.
that might hold for the short run, but if platinum stays at these levels, some holders will cut their losses and sell.
<< <i>Buying? I don't think any sellers will drop their prices to match the market price, they are still charging more than the Mint for Proofs and W mints. So back dates do not seem to be an option.
that might hold for the short run, but if platinum stays at these levels, some holders will cut their losses and sell. >>
I hope so, but right now they are claiming extreme rarity and asking prices are off the deep end (higher than the US mint).
2004 proof
<< <i>Back in March I made a prediction (half way down the page) for plat to fall to about $1500 an ounce within 6-12 months. No one seemed to care then...
I still love my plat coins and maybe catching up on some past issues will be easier now.
Eric >>
Good call ... Plat. may break the $1500 level this week. Gold below $900 ... even rhodium is below $8k
<< <i>Looking at Ebay they seem to be going down in price, many early dates are under $200. In fact when was the last time you've seen a 2004 W Proof for under $800 at a retail shop?
2004 proof >>
Almost $8000/oz. How many can I get?
the possibility of electric cars. Maybe we've turned the corner and it's just a matter of time.
*edit*...well maybe not. That's the risk you take
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2004 proofs for $795.00..... a bit cheaper then normal.
<< <i>I feel sorry for those that bought heavily at $2000-2200
*edit*...well maybe not. That's the risk you take >>
Platinum is just twice the price of gold right now even though there is over 25 times the amount of gold coming out of the ground than platinum. Add in the fact that platinum is a much needed metal for industry, and its a wonder that platinum isnt closer to 5-6 times gold.
<< <i>You should be able to find platinum cheaper if you look hard enough.....
2004 proofs for $795.00..... a bit cheaper then normal. >>
You are talking 1/10 oz.? Have people actually been paying $8000/oz. for these Proof coins?
<< <i>If Congress gets wind of this , they may go into an emergency session and this will cost the taxpayers an additional trillion dollars...
@TwoSides2aCoin
I recognize you are being funny, but the job of Congress is to run the country.
The Mint doesn't have such a broad mission.
It makes our circulating coins, bullion coins, and coins for collectors.
With collector coins, even if as a matter of bureaucratic necessity we have limited or no input into what the Mint's policies are, there is no reason the Mint can't share those policies with us.
This information should be transparent; there's no national security interest at stake, and as one of the few areas where the government actually makes a profit, it isn't unreasonable to ask for some disclosure and hope that there is some logic behind its policies.
You might be content to accept whatever the Mint does without question or comment, I don't think there is any harm in expressing frustration with the Mint's less logical policies and suggesting ways that things could be better.
The interests of collectors and the hobby as a whole SHOULD be part of the Mint's interests as well.
We aren't dogs waiting for scraps thrown from the master's table. We are the consumers for the Mint's goods. >>
nycounsel, is this of interest?? Public Enterprise Fund (PEF) Report.....looks like it trails by 12 months.
Mint Link
Still, there was this gem from the 2d Quarter 2007 report, page 3:
"Year-to-Date Bullion Revenues: Year-to-date bullion revenues through the second quarter of FY 2007 totaled $222 million -- down by 6% from the same period of FY 2006. (See Table #1)
This decrease resulted from a decrease in orders attributable to the increase in precious metals prices."
It's good to see that the Mint has recognized a relationship between price and demand!
<< <i>Thanks Goldbully -- these reports are of interest, though they really don't provide much in the way of details.
Still, there was this gem from the 2d Quarter 2007 report, page 3:
"Year-to-Date Bullion Revenues: Year-to-date bullion revenues through the second quarter of FY 2007 totaled $222 million -- down by 6% from the same period of FY 2006. (See Table #1)
This decrease resulted from a decrease in orders attributable to the increase in precious metals prices."
It's good to see that the Mint has recognized a relationship between price and demand! >>
I guess they bought a lot of platinum at inflated prices.
Currently, the 2008 plat eagles cannot possibly be saleable....will the Mint recognize this relationship????
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>It's not a cliff. It's a double black diamond run, with moguls, through the trees!
Very observant and descriptive, jmski52!!!