<< <i>fc, you must be in the wrong forum. Just buy your stocks, bonds, and save your dollars. You'll be okay I'm sure even though you've seen a couple warning shots now I'm sure they don't mean a thing. The goverment never rigged anything. All this talk makes me think of the bible which is wierd, we see but don't believe. >>
10000!
Listen. I mentioned how I am going to play PMs on this forum quite a few times. I am now a flipper. I have gone through 400 ounces of silver in the last weeks and have another 300 ounces on the way to sell. I am trying to make contacts for a steady supply at the wholesale level.
My plan is to be the middleman. To make money off all this PM fever. I am already enjoying 15-25% profit easy on my money which i am putting back in to buy more metal. The next purchase I make will be 500 ounces. Rinse, wash, and repeat. Nothing feels better then making two bucks an ounce eh?
So keep holding. Feel free to pray for a nice return. In the meantime I will be making money and I do not care what the price is.
---------
Interesting points roadrunner. I need to reread your post again to digest it.
<< <i>fc, you must be in the wrong forum. Just buy your stocks, bonds, and save your dollars. You'll be okay I'm sure even though you've seen a couple warning shots now I'm sure they don't mean a thing. The goverment never rigged anything. All this talk makes me think of the bible which is wierd, we see but don't believe. >>
10000!
Listen. I mentioned how I am going to play PMs on this forum quite a few times. I am now a flipper. I have gone through 400 ounces of silver in the last weeks and have another 300 ounces on the way to sell. I am trying to make contacts for a steady supply at the wholesale level.
My plan is to be the middleman. To make money off all this PM fever. I am already enjoying 15-25% profit easy on my money which i am putting back in to buy more metal. The next purchase I make will be 500 ounces. Rinse, wash, and repeat. Nothing feels better then making two bucks an ounce eh?
So keep holding. Feel free to pray for a nice return. In the meantime I will be making money and I do not care what the price is.
---------
Interesting points roadrunner. I need to reread your post again to digest it. >>
Congrats fc on 10k!!!!!
BTW, excellent dialog between you and roadrunner!!!!!!
Stupid me! I thought the 10,000 reference was a slight at the future price of gold! My bad.
Yes, congrats on the 10,000. I'm still trying to figure out what my new title should be. Maybe in a few years I'll try something different besides "choose your title."
Hmmm, maybe a Freudian slip about gold at 10,000???
Congrats on 10,000 fc. Heh, heh - you did it in a precious metals thread.
fc, from the chart in ttown's post, the regression line runs to about $1,700/oz. That's the number that makes sense to me, if the markets were acting normal - but they aren't. The chart says "massively oversold" to me, but I'm a simple man. The REASON that James Sinclair is worth reading is because of his assessment of why the markets aren't acting normal, and he is capable of seeing the wider view from the prism of his experience better than I can through my own. The other guys that I'd give credibility to are Paul Volker and David Walker. Not Greenspan, not Bernake, not McCain, not Obama.
These are times that are very much outside the norm - the closest thing to Weimar since 1978-9. Only this time, it involves everything - not just the commodities markets. The banking system, the credit markets, all of the financial services companies, the Treasury, the SEC and CFTC, the President, the IMF, and every other country in the world. This time, it's definitely bigger, and nobody knows where it's going. That's just my take.
You are quite possibly mistaking volatility for fundamentals - the Bloomberg article states that the mine projects won't be profitable at current platinum pricing levels. A conclusion that people who didn't sell above $1,800 are idiots is not valid if you have some confidence that the $1,800 will be exceeded in a reasonable time, and I do.
If you don't buy when the price is down (like now), then you've already lost half of the equation when it goes up. Frankly, if I had needed money when platinum was up, I probably would have sold some off. I didn't - because I am still in the accumulation stage while my income is still good, and I have every expectation that the price will be much higher by the time I slack off from working. Right now, my job provides capital, and right now I'm buying, not selling. If I only made money from trading, then that's what I would be doing, and I would be paying much more attention to the daily trading charts.
What part of "averaging in" don't you get? The whole point of a substantial price decline is to continue buying as if nothing has changed. The average cost of my platinum position is based on all of the purchases that I've made since 1999 - sometimes I bought high, and sometimes I bought very low. If I had been buying, selling, buying, selling - I would not have accumulated the nice hoard that I have accumulated now. There will be a time to sell, but it's not here yet. I'm fine with the volatility.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
we do not need sinclair to understand the state of our country. most here knew about this type of information before reading sinclair.
heck, the last book i read about WWII was germany's economy from 1933-1945. we all are interested in this stuff. before that was the history of the US from 1929-1939 and how the great depression affected those people who lived through it.
this is widely available information. sinclair is just parroting it. we all parrot it.
--------
but the real question is, when do you sell? what is your exit strategy? if that was discussed more then just the buying i think people would have sold at the top a few months ago.
-----
as for averaging in? why? i want my money to work for me. buying and holding metals is not the path to success in my mind. it will be luck if the metal peaks at a point you are ready to sell..
i think it has peaked for the short/medium term. it will take years for gold to get to 1200. When I say years I mean 5-10. In the meantime that money could be used to make more money and probably outpace the profits on buying and holding gold.
If this type of analysis were so easy to comprehend from reading period books then we would not be in the predicament that we are. What JS preaches is generally not made available to the public in the newspapers or periodicals they read. His and others insights do not always agree. If it were so simple we'd all be retired and living on 85 deg. ocean front property somewhere. 99% of the people who invested in OTC derivatives were wrong about them. I expect that the current situation will also end with 99% of the people never having a clue as to how it got there.
Some of the strategic metal producers (Plat, Palladium, etc) will probably be shutting down production before they give Plat away for $800/oz. Prices will come back. Some interesting rumors over at GIM that JPMorgan is beating the bushes in Africa for gold and can't find what it needs. Some of the producers are offering metal, but only at far above current levels. Sounds like something is coming to a head in the December futures contract. JPM is probaby the world's leading gold derivatives player and is running into some problems. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
My exit strategy is to wait until gold hits the $1500+ and decide how much longer the run is from there. It will either be start liquidating or pick other interim target. If the opportunity to sell 1/3 on strength exists, along with being able to get the metal back lower, I will take it. Right now I'm not convinced I can get the metal back at all if I sell.
For those that didn't sell gold on the last run there is a chance we have another rally in gold higher before another drop, possibly to $900. It may take a few months but perhaps it happens sooner.
The last two large bubbles showed a huge run followed by a sharp selloff [where we are now or are on the way with], then a rally towards the highs that fail.
Short-term though I would think gold will fall further before this spike back higher, but I am only guessing.
Platinum I think drops further as the auto market is kaput and the miners lived with lower platinum prices than this so will adjust again with lower production. Mines will be close, the scary part is so many mines couldn't even turn a profit at the higher commodity prices, I am not sure they ever can now.
<< <i>If this type of analysis were so easy to comprehend from reading period books then we would not be in the predicament that we are. What JS preaches is generally not made available to the public in the newspapers or periodicals they read. His and others insights do not always agree. If it were so simple we'd all be retired and living on 85 deg. ocean front property somewhere. 99% of the people who invested in OTC derivatives were wrong about them. I expect that the current situation will also end with 99% of the people never having a clue as to how it got there. >>
Many people do not take an interest in it. Witness our congressmen and women as prime examples. Their pensions are secure no matter the situation.
AM radio is another place of discussion of such topics that people rarely bother listen to.
Big boobies do not show up in 800 page books that takes me a week just to understand a chapter that i have to reread three times to comprehend it.
As for the current suits who made the banks fail... one has to wonder if they have any sense at all. We have seen Salomon and Long-Term Capital Management blow up in the past and now it is happening again due to bad business decisions. Liar's poker is such an interesting book eh?
<< <i>Some of the strategic metal producers (Plat, Palladium, etc) will probably be shutting down production before they give Plat away for $800/oz. Prices will come back. Some interesting rumors over at GIM that JPMorgan is beating the bushes in Africa for gold and can't find what it needs. Some of the producers are offering metal, but only at far above current levels. Sounds like something is coming to a head in the December futures contract. JPM is probaby the world's leading gold derivatives player and is running into some problems. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
roadrunner >>
I am not so sure about that. Sounds a lot like rumors? I do not blame the miners for holding out for a higher price when they know everyone else is doing the same. It will take time for premiums to drop. And drop they will.
Taking risk is the name of the game. The easy run up in metals is over and now the fun begins.
but the real question is, when do you sell? what is your exit strategy? if that was discussed more then just the buying i think people would have sold at the top a few months ago.
fc, my investment stance doesn't change unless something fundamental starts changing. I don't whipsaw with the markets and chase every trade. What's the point? You will get burned just as easy trading in and out as by analyzing the situation and taking a position. And don't forget the cost of churning that money in your account. Of course, the brokers won't mind.
as for averaging in? why? i want my money to work for me. buying and holding metals is not the path to success in my mind. it will be luck if the metal peaks at a point you are ready to sell..
When I'm ready to sell, I'll be selling the same way that I bought - a little at a time, unless I see an opportunity. And I'll balance the sales with my tax position at the time. Again, the reason I wasn't looking to sell when metals peaked recently is simply because I don't believe for a second that the run is over. You can quote me on that, "jmski52 says that the run in precious metals isn't over, 10-25-08." Frankly, it's not a run on precious metals anyway. It's a total hedge against the devaluation of the dollar and the combined stupidity of the "government" that we happen to have, but let's not nickpick here.
i think it has peaked for the short/medium term. it will take years for gold to get to 1200. When I say years I mean 5-10.
I respectfully disagree.
In the meantime that money could be used to make more money and probably outpace the profits on buying and holding gold.
I use my career to *make more money* and my profits on buying and holding precious metals are unrealized until I sell. I make enough money right now, and I don't need more tax liability.
When the liquidity and credit fiasco blows over and is finally finished ripping equity out of everyone's investments, I'm sure that I'll find other ways to deploy some capital, but in my humble opinion - investments in paper assets right now are financial suicide. (I took ***everything*** out of the market about 4 or 5 months ago. Good thing, eh?) It's all sitting in cash and I'm nibbling on precious metals at bargain prices to add to my position. I didn't lose 40% in the market when I easily could have. It's in cash and a little bit more platinum. Works for me.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Platinum Tumbles to 5-Year Low on Concern Auto Sales May Slow
By Millie Munshi
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum dropped to a five-year low in New York on concern that a slowing global economy may reduce demand for the metal from automakers. Palladium rose.
The U.S. auto market may shrink this year to the smallest since 1993 as the credit crunch and a slowing economy curb sales. Carmakers use platinum in pollution-control parts and account for more than 60 percent of demand. The metal's price has plunged 48 percent this year.
``The auto industry is in a decline right now,'' said Tetsuya Yoshii, vice president for derivative products at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. ``That will be a very bearish factor for platinum and palladium.''
Platinum futures for January delivery dropped $5.10, or 0.6 percent, to $797.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $752.10, the lowest for a most-active contract since Nov. 18, 2003.
Price declines may prompt miners to cut back production, said Daniel Sacks, a fund manger at Investec Asset Management.
``The last week has seen some commodities fall below marginal cost of production -- the level which should induce supply cutbacks,'' Sacks said by phone from Cape Town, South Africa. ``We view metals like platinum as attractive territory.''
Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. South Africa is the largest producer of the metal.
Palladium futures for December delivery rose $1.45, or 0.8 percent, to $175.40 an ounce in New York. The metal is still down 54 percent this year.
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
>>
Excellent point, fc!!!!! Monkeys can be stinkers for sure!!!
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
>>
Maybe they use a lot of oil based fuel to power the mining machines. I know heating oil(aka diesel) is still way more now than 2yrs ago even after the recent decline and at its peak this year it was more than double the 2006 price.
Platinum facts,
All the platinum ever mined would fit in the average size living room!
Annually, only about 133 tons of platinum are mined, compared to about 1,782 tons of gold.
10 tons of ore and a five month process is needed to make up one ounce of platinum.
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
>>
Maybe they use a lot of oil based fuel to power the mining machines. I know heating oil(aka diesel) is still way more now than 2yrs ago even after the recent decline and at its peak this year it was more than double the 2006 price.
Platinum facts,
All the platinum ever mined would fit in the average size living room!
Annually, only about 133 tons of platinum are mined, compared to about 1,782 tons of gold.
10 tons of ore and a five month process is needed to make up one ounce of platinum.
i think you are right with those facts. but are they taking into account the palladium, gold, and silver that they also get in the process? is that deducted from the overall price of plat mining?
or do they say it cost 1100 an ounce to mine and refine... with this pile of 3 other PMs sitting there unaccounted for in the figures?
I found this proposal for a new "platinum" mine in south africa here.
I find it very hard to understand but it lists a lot of the costs/taxes involved.
I guess if someone could comprehend it better than I can you might be able to figure out what they are saying it costs to mine the stuff.
"Average life-of-mine cash operating costs to produce concentrate is estimated at R451 per tonne (US$56.38) of ore or (R3,504) US$438 per 4E ounce on a life of mine basis. The Merensky Reef layer represents the first 15 years of production and the basket price per 4E ounce is modeled at US$1,168 (3 year trailing prices) and US$1,854 (recent prices). The UG2 layer represents the balance of the production. The model includes a subsequent average 15.16% discount from the metal price to estimate the smelter pay discount. Operating margin life of mine on three year trailing 4E metal prices is approximately US$739 per ounce or 63% of revenue and on recent prices it is US$1,355 per ounce or 76%."
The marginal cost is the actual cost to add the next ounce. they may be mining at $99/ounce but if the next scoop of ore is low grade stuff across a swamp, mountain, and Dora the Explorer's map is lost, then it might be $1100. The marginal cost is also likely different for each producer. If to add one more ounce they have to expand their facility, then it might be much higher. If all they have to do is add another miner and the infastructure is already there then it might be much much lower. --jerry
ah how the times have changed. it seems like yesterday many plat owners were ooohing and aaahing with plat over 2000. Now they are happy to see it get back to 1000 in the short term.
ah how the times have changed. it seems like yesterday many plat owners were ooohing and aaahing with plat over 2000. Now they are happy to see it get back to 1000 in the short term.
i say 700 is very likely!
fc, I personally hope that you get royally burned in an investment one day. It's about time that you take your gloating attitude elsewhere.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>ah how the times have changed. it seems like yesterday many plat owners were ooohing and aaahing with plat over 2000. Now they are happy to see it get back to 1000 in the short term.
i say 700 is very likely!
fc, I personally hope that you get royally burned in an investment one day. It's about time that you take your gloating attitude elsewhere. >>
i am reading this as, "i had no exit strategy to make money on my PM purchases."
is that not what we are here for? to make money? i guess i am mistaken and should buy high, sell low, and hang onto it for years at a time so i can sell low later on when i do not want to sell low now.
plat is used in the automotive industry. it will be a long time before they recover. thus 700 is a likely price. plat was speculated on and tried to be in the same league as gold.. and failed miserably.
i am reading this as, "i had no exit strategy to make money on my PM purchases."
Read this as exactly what it says - I want you to lose money on something that you planned to make alot of money investing in. I hope it happens. Period.
Also read it as - fc, I'm tired of you personally, I'm tired of you making snied comments everytime that you think you've pulled off a major coup, when you haven't ever put any significant amount of money on the table. You sell a few cheap common gold half eagles when gold is $1,000 and think you've become Warren Buffet. It's laughable.
is that not what we are here for? to make money? Ask Mr. Eureka, that's his contention.
Maybe when you've put real money into a position someday, you'll know what critical assessment skills are. Knowing you, you'll lose your butt and then begin to wonder why your myopic view doesn't work.
Oh, just a quick remark on making money in pms - don't worry about it, fc. My pm profits and my pm position are quite comfortable.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Interesting, because I'd say $700 is unlikely. The auto industry is not the only use for platinum. As the mines back down production, supply will also shrink. Platinum will be back to 1000 in the fairly near future...on the heels of gold as the post-deleveraging commodity sector gets going again. Personally I own no platinum and never have.
Taking risk is the name of the game. The easy run up in metals is over and now the fun begins.
You must be a newcomer. I watched gold day by day from September 2002 and the rise up was anything but easy. The first few years you'd be lucky to see a $6 change in the price of gold. It was far from easy and there were very few long term holders of gold on this forum. Very few! There were some very severe setbacks along the way including the May 2006 pounding that took 18 months to recover. I didn't see anyone saying how easy the money was up to that point as gold corrected 20-25%. Considering the run in gold was counter to the dollar and opposed to stocks, there is automatic resistance from the mainstream on anyone attempting to do this. It's borderline uncongressional! The run from August 2007-March 2008 was not indicative of what had occurred during the previous 5 years. Gold at $1000 in March was indicative of the credit problems facing the economy. Today, the problems are only worse which says that $750 gold grossly understates the problems regardless of the FED/Treasury world-wide dollar give-away in progress.
<< <i>i am reading this as, "i had no exit strategy to make money on my PM purchases."
Read this as exactly what it says - I want you to lose money on something that you planned to make alot of money investing in. I hope it happens. Period.
Also read it as - fc, I'm tired of you personally, I'm tired of you making snied comments everytime that you think you've pulled off a major coup, when you haven't ever put any significant amount of money on the table. You sell a few cheap common gold half eagles when gold is $1,000 and think you've become Warren Buffet. It's laughable.
is that not what we are here for? to make money? Ask Mr. Eureka, that's his contention.
Maybe when you've put real money into a position someday, you'll know what critical assessment skills are. Knowing you, you'll lose your butt and then begin to wonder why your myopic view doesn't work.
Oh, just a quick remark on making money in pms - don't worry about it, fc. My pm profits and my pm position are quite comfortable. >>
I wonder why you took my general comments about plat personally? hmmm.
Interesting, because I'd say $700 is unlikely. The auto industry is not the only use for platinum. As the mines back down production, supply will also shrink. Platinum will be back to 1000 in the fairly near future...on the heels of gold as the post-deleveraging commodity sector gets going again. Personally I own no platinum and never have.
Taking risk is the name of the game. The easy run up in metals is over and now the fun begins.
You must be a newcomer. I watched gold day by day from September 2002 and the rise up was anything but easy. The first few years you'd be lucky to see a $6 change in the price of gold. It was far from easy and there were very few long term holders of gold on this forum. Very few! There were some very severe setbacks along the way including the May 2006 pounding that took 18 months to recover. I didn't see anyone saying how easy the money was up to that point as gold corrected 20-25%. Considering the run in gold was counter to the dollar and opposed to stocks, there is automatic resistance from the mainstream on anyone attempting to do this. It's borderline uncongressional! The run from August 2007-March 2008 was not indicative of what had occurred during the previous 5 years. Gold at $1000 in March was indicative of the credit problems facing the economy. Today, the problems are only worse which says that $750 gold grossly understates the problems regardless of the FED/Treasury world-wide dollar give-away in progress.
roadrunner >>
From 450 to 800 was an easy guess. I bought gold because of it.
The difference between you and I is that I sold mine when a peak appeared instead of getting greedy and thinking 1200 was right around the corner.
Now my plan has shifted to flipping bullion which has been good to me also.
So now the difference between you and I is that I am more flexible and change my ideas as the market develops.
Preaching the same thing day after day after day is not productive.
I have no idea what your time line for all these things to happen is... but it truly seems you will hold onto them for as long as is takes. It appears you are not open to the possibility that gold will not break 1000 again for years and that is a shame.
I hope others reading these posts have enough common sense to think for themselves.
It is almost time... another year or so the switch to different opportunities. PMs, long term, are basically for bullion dealers. Not joe the plumber.
I am not on this forum to make "friends". I am here to seek out advice from those who have a track record of being right and making the correct moves.
From 450 to 800 was an easy guess. I bought gold because of it.
Don't kid yourself, many around here didn't join you until gold was well past $725 in Sept/Oct 2008. And the vast majority of Nadler's Wadlers were left at the doorstep in August 2007 waiting for a final retest of $650 that never came. In fact those same guys are still waiting for $650 or less to re-enter...15 months and still waiting. No fc, you were in the vast minority staying with gold past $650 and up to $800+. My end game in gold doesn't even start to kick in until we're well past $1500...and probably $2200+. It has nothing to do with greed. Your sights are just way too low (ie $875 gold from 1980). Gold and commodities have to end in a frenzy....just as stocks have to end in a massive total blowout where they become hated. We've seen nothing of the sort yet. And why we'd all like to think that past predictions are an infallible measure of future success, we all know that's not true.
The difference between you and I is that I sold mine when a peak appeared instead of getting greedy and thinking 1200 was right around the corner.
It didn't matter that I didn't sell mine in March at $1033. As I've said many times the majority of my holdings are in slabbed Saints...not in standard bullion coins. I like the numismatic character of the gold gold, esp 63's-65's. Slabbed $20's are in fact just as high TODAY as they were at the March peak. Fancy that! I've been recommending then at various times over the past 4 years due to their leverage and numismatic value over bullion. Guess you didn't listen. You could have made 30-50% on each major Saint move from 2005-2008 and easily exceeded what gold bullion did. And while Saints are certainly widgets, AGE's are super-widgets. Thing is, one can sop of the entire slabbed $20's on the market in a matter of days or weeks. There will be a time to move from Saints into pure bullion or something else, but I'm not there yet. Gotta be flexible, but only when the time is right. Being flexible is more than changing one's goals every few days or weeks on every minor fluctuation.
Now my plan has shifted to flipping bullion which has been good to me also. So now the difference between you and I is that I am more flexible and change my ideas as the market develops.
Flexible? I recommended MS64 $2-1/2 Libs and $5 Libs in MS64 as give-aways in September 2007. I loaded up on them....and dumped most of them after gaining 40-50% in a couple of months. They are currently on the gold buy list again...esp the $2-1/2's. One can buy more than gold bullion in a gold bull market. If you followed some of our advice over the years and held on to slabbed $20's (esp 63's to 65's) you did fine. Curious thing about those MS65 saints, they lost most of their premiums over the MS64's during the first quarter of 2008...and opened up a window of opportunity. This was the first time in the current gold bull that MS65 saints didn't fetch at least a 40-75% premium to 64's (they went as low as 20%). Well, those MS65 saints regained a bunch as gold got slaughtered in Sept/Oct. To those holding slabbed $20's (and there are a number of people here with such positions), the drop in gold prices to $700/oz did NOT affect them. They actually gained over the March highs! Those that were fussy in their Saint selections could also gain further % by having them CAC'd. Sounds pretty flexible to me.
Preaching the same thing day after day after day is not productive.
Pretty much what we get from you. When this thread first started in 2004 no one but those on the gold thread saw $800-$1000 gold coming. And many of us back then were looking for $1500-$2500 down the road, so $1200 would be an extremely poor outcome...and most unlikely imo. We are in mid-stream in the commodities bull - halfway there. You're right, I don't see any other choice from here but $1500+ gold. Bernanke will see to it that inflation rather than deflation is main game.
I am not on this forum to make "friends". I am here to seek out advice from those who have a track record of being right and making the correct moves.
Time will tell if you actually listen. I'd much rather be around with my position intact at $1500-2500 gold than to get thrown off the bull while trying to make 10% trades and miss the next move (ie like Nadler's Toddlers).
Anglo Platinum Closure May Remove 3% of World Supply (Update1)
By Antony Sguazzin
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest platinum producer, said an accident at its Polokwane smelter may cut production by as much as 200,000 ounces this year. Its shares fell and metal prices advanced.
Matte, or semi-processed ore, leaked out of a furnace at the plant 200 miles north of Johannesburg and came into contact with water, causing damage that will take six weeks to repair, the Johannesburg-based company said in a statement today. It will cut output this year by 150,000 to 200,000 ounces, equal to as much as 3 percent of global supply.
``It's not good news for them, but great news for the platinum price,'' Sasha Naryshkine, a manager at Johannesburg- based fund manager Vestact, said by phone today.
Platinum supply has fallen short of demand in eight of the last nine years, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. Demand has been bolstered by carmakers, who use the metal in autocatalysts and now account for almost half of all demand.
``Losses associated with this shut down will not be recovered in 2008,'' Anglo Platinum said, adding that ore may be stockpiled and processed next year. A loss of 200,000 ounces would be equal to 8.3 percent of its earlier full-year production target of 2.4 million ounces.
Anglo Platinum in 2000 said it was starting an expansion that would boost production to 3.5 million ounces in 2006.
Platinum for immediate delivery rose as much as 4.1 percent to $886 an ounce in London. The metal has declined 42 percent this year. Anglo Platinum fell 36.10 rand, or 8.1 percent, to 408.80 rand in Johannesburg.
``It's a very important smelter and any production losses could be bullish for prices,'' said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of marketing and sales at Hanau, Germany-based Heraeus Metallhandels GmbH, which owns five precious metals refineries.
The smelter is one of two operated by Anglo Platinum, which supplies two-fifths of the world's platinum.
To contact the reporter on this story: Antony Sguazzin in Johannesburg at asguazzin@bloomberg.net
I really don't know why you guys give this much attention to him, he's the classic braggart who seemingly always does the right thing. I've known several people like him and they all have one thing in common, they're all boring.
Gold and platinum have been moving together for a while now.
Oddly, I don't see all of the gold stocks taking the same pull back today such as intermediates AEM, IAG, and EGO. Decent junior mining stocks like GSS, CDE, and TRE are still at their high levels if not higher levels. And silver is hanging tough. It sort of smacks of a contrived paper sell off....before another move up. Typically, those juniors would fall into the dumpster of any signs of weakness. They are doing anything but that. And also those gold stacks have been lagging the pog recently. Some moving counter to gold right now is actually bullish imo.
So, I'm listening to Bernake speak on CNBC and he is saying, "we will use every tool at our disposal to promote employment and to control inflation and deflation.........."
Then I notice that gold has dropped about $23.00 like a rock.
Gee, I wonder what's causing that?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
<< <i>fc, you must be in the wrong forum. Just buy your stocks, bonds, and save your dollars. You'll be okay I'm sure even though you've seen a couple warning shots now I'm sure they don't mean a thing. The goverment never rigged anything. All this talk makes me think of the bible which is wierd, we see but don't believe. >>
10000!
Listen. I mentioned how I am going to play PMs on this forum quite
a few times. I am now a flipper. I have gone through 400 ounces of
silver in the last weeks and have another 300 ounces on the way
to sell. I am trying to make contacts for a steady supply at the wholesale
level.
My plan is to be the middleman. To make money off all this PM fever.
I am already enjoying 15-25% profit easy on my money which i am
putting back in to buy more metal. The next purchase I make will be
500 ounces. Rinse, wash, and repeat. Nothing feels better then making
two bucks an ounce eh?
So keep holding. Feel free to pray for a nice return. In the meantime
I will be making money and I do not care what the price is.
---------
Interesting points roadrunner. I need to reread your post again to
digest it.
<< <i>
<< <i>fc, you must be in the wrong forum. Just buy your stocks, bonds, and save your dollars. You'll be okay I'm sure even though you've seen a couple warning shots now I'm sure they don't mean a thing. The goverment never rigged anything. All this talk makes me think of the bible which is wierd, we see but don't believe. >>
10000!
Listen. I mentioned how I am going to play PMs on this forum quite
a few times. I am now a flipper. I have gone through 400 ounces of
silver in the last weeks and have another 300 ounces on the way
to sell. I am trying to make contacts for a steady supply at the wholesale
level.
My plan is to be the middleman. To make money off all this PM fever.
I am already enjoying 15-25% profit easy on my money which i am
putting back in to buy more metal. The next purchase I make will be
500 ounces. Rinse, wash, and repeat. Nothing feels better then making
two bucks an ounce eh?
So keep holding. Feel free to pray for a nice return. In the meantime
I will be making money and I do not care what the price is.
---------
Interesting points roadrunner. I need to reread your post again to
digest it. >>
Congrats fc on 10k!!!!!
BTW, excellent dialog between you and roadrunner!!!!!!
Yes, congrats on the 10,000. I'm still trying to figure out what my new title should be. Maybe in a few years I'll try something different besides "choose your title."
Hmmm, maybe a Freudian slip about gold at 10,000???
roadrunner
fc, from the chart in ttown's post, the regression line runs to about $1,700/oz. That's the number that makes sense to me, if the markets were acting normal - but they aren't. The chart says "massively oversold" to me, but I'm a simple man. The REASON that James Sinclair is worth reading is because of his assessment of why the markets aren't acting normal, and he is capable of seeing the wider view from the prism of his experience better than I can through my own. The other guys that I'd give credibility to are Paul Volker and David Walker. Not Greenspan, not Bernake, not McCain, not Obama.
These are times that are very much outside the norm - the closest thing to Weimar since 1978-9. Only this time, it involves everything - not just the commodities markets. The banking system, the credit markets, all of the financial services companies, the Treasury, the SEC and CFTC, the President, the IMF, and every other country in the world. This time, it's definitely bigger, and nobody knows where it's going. That's just my take.
You are quite possibly mistaking volatility for fundamentals - the Bloomberg article states that the mine projects won't be profitable at current platinum pricing levels. A conclusion that people who didn't sell above $1,800 are idiots is not valid if you have some confidence that the $1,800 will be exceeded in a reasonable time, and I do.
If you don't buy when the price is down (like now), then you've already lost half of the equation when it goes up. Frankly, if I had needed money when platinum was up, I probably would have sold some off. I didn't - because I am still in the accumulation stage while my income is still good, and I have every expectation that the price will be much higher by the time I slack off from working. Right now, my job provides capital, and right now I'm buying, not selling. If I only made money from trading, then that's what I would be doing, and I would be paying much more attention to the daily trading charts.
What part of "averaging in" don't you get? The whole point of a substantial price decline is to continue buying as if nothing has changed. The average cost of my platinum position is based on all of the purchases that I've made since 1999 - sometimes I bought high, and sometimes I bought very low. If I had been buying, selling, buying, selling - I would not have accumulated the nice hoard that I have accumulated now. There will be a time to sell, but it's not here yet. I'm fine with the volatility.
I knew it would happen.
most here knew about this type of information before reading sinclair.
heck, the last book i read about WWII was germany's economy
from 1933-1945. we all are interested in this stuff. before that was
the history of the US from 1929-1939 and how the great depression
affected those people who lived through it.
this is widely available information. sinclair is just parroting it. we all
parrot it.
--------
but the real question is, when do you sell? what is your exit strategy? if that was discussed more then just the buying i think
people would have sold at the top a few months ago.
-----
as for averaging in? why? i want my money to work for me. buying
and holding metals is not the path to success in my mind. it will be
luck if the metal peaks at a point you are ready to sell..
i think it has peaked for the short/medium term. it will take years for gold
to get to 1200. When I say years I mean 5-10. In the meantime that
money could be used to make more money and probably outpace
the profits on buying and holding gold.
Some of the strategic metal producers (Plat, Palladium, etc) will probably be shutting down production before they give Plat away for $800/oz. Prices will come back. Some interesting rumors over at GIM that JPMorgan is beating the bushes in Africa for gold and can't find what it needs. Some of the producers are offering metal, but only at far above current levels. Sounds like something is coming to a head in the December futures contract. JPM is probaby the world's leading gold derivatives player and is running into some problems. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
My exit strategy is to wait until gold hits the $1500+ and decide how much longer the run is from there. It will either be start liquidating or pick other interim target. If the opportunity to sell 1/3 on strength exists, along with being able to get the metal back lower, I will take it. Right now I'm not convinced I can get the metal back at all if I sell.
roadrunner
The last two large bubbles showed a huge run followed by a sharp selloff [where we are now or are on the way with], then a rally towards the highs that fail.
Short-term though I would think gold will fall further before this spike back higher, but I am only guessing.
Platinum I think drops further as the auto market is kaput and the miners lived with lower platinum prices than this so will adjust again with lower production. Mines will be close, the scary part is so many mines couldn't even turn a profit at the higher commodity prices, I am not sure they ever can now.
<< <i>If this type of analysis were so easy to comprehend from reading period books then we would not be in the predicament that we are. What JS preaches is generally not made available to the public in the newspapers or periodicals they read. His and others insights do not always agree. If it were so simple we'd all be retired and living on 85 deg. ocean front property somewhere. 99% of the people who invested in OTC derivatives were wrong about them. I expect that the current situation will also end with 99% of the people never having a clue as to how it got there. >>
Many people do not take an interest in it. Witness our congressmen
and women as prime examples. Their pensions are secure no matter
the situation.
AM radio is another place of discussion of such topics that people
rarely bother listen to.
Big boobies do not show up in 800 page books that takes me a week
just to understand a chapter that i have to reread three times to
comprehend it.
As for the current suits who made the banks fail... one has to wonder
if they have any sense at all. We have seen Salomon and Long-Term Capital Management blow up in the past and now it is happening
again due to bad business decisions. Liar's poker is such an interesting
book eh?
<< <i>Some of the strategic metal producers (Plat, Palladium, etc) will probably be shutting down production before they give Plat away for $800/oz. Prices will come back. Some interesting rumors over at GIM that JPMorgan is beating the bushes in Africa for gold and can't find what it needs. Some of the producers are offering metal, but only at far above current levels. Sounds like something is coming to a head in the December futures contract. JPM is probaby the world's leading gold derivatives player and is running into some problems. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.
roadrunner >>
I am not so sure about that. Sounds a lot like rumors?
I do not blame the miners for holding out for a higher price when they
know everyone else is doing the same. It will take time for premiums
to drop. And drop they will.
Taking risk is the name of the game. The easy run up in metals is
over and now the fun begins.
people would have sold at the top a few months ago.
fc, my investment stance doesn't change unless something fundamental starts changing. I don't whipsaw with the markets and chase every trade. What's the point? You will get burned just as easy trading in and out as by analyzing the situation and taking a position. And don't forget the cost of churning that money in your account. Of course, the brokers won't mind.
as for averaging in? why? i want my money to work for me. buying
and holding metals is not the path to success in my mind. it will be
luck if the metal peaks at a point you are ready to sell..
When I'm ready to sell, I'll be selling the same way that I bought - a little at a time, unless I see an opportunity. And I'll balance the sales with my tax position at the time. Again, the reason I wasn't looking to sell when metals peaked recently is simply because I don't believe for a second that the run is over. You can quote me on that, "jmski52 says that the run in precious metals isn't over, 10-25-08." Frankly, it's not a run on precious metals anyway. It's a total hedge against the devaluation of the dollar and the combined stupidity of the "government" that we happen to have, but let's not nickpick here.
i think it has peaked for the short/medium term. it will take years for gold to get to 1200. When I say years I mean 5-10.
I respectfully disagree.
In the meantime that money could be used to make more money and probably outpace the profits on buying and holding gold.
I use my career to *make more money* and my profits on buying and holding precious metals are unrealized until I sell. I make enough money right now, and I don't need more tax liability.
When the liquidity and credit fiasco blows over and is finally finished ripping equity out of everyone's investments, I'm sure that I'll find other ways to deploy some capital, but in my humble opinion - investments in paper assets right now are financial suicide. (I took ***everything*** out of the market about 4 or 5 months ago. Good thing, eh?) It's all sitting in cash and I'm nibbling on precious metals at bargain prices to add to my position. I didn't lose 40% in the market when I easily could have. It's in cash and a little bit more platinum. Works for me.
I knew it would happen.
By Millie Munshi
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum dropped to a five-year low in New York on concern that a slowing global economy may reduce demand for the metal from automakers. Palladium rose.
The U.S. auto market may shrink this year to the smallest since 1993 as the credit crunch and a slowing economy curb sales. Carmakers use platinum in pollution-control parts and account for more than 60 percent of demand. The metal's price has plunged 48 percent this year.
``The auto industry is in a decline right now,'' said Tetsuya Yoshii, vice president for derivative products at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. ``That will be a very bearish factor for platinum and palladium.''
Platinum futures for January delivery dropped $5.10, or 0.6 percent, to $797.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $752.10, the lowest for a most-active contract since Nov. 18, 2003.
Price declines may prompt miners to cut back production, said Daniel Sacks, a fund manger at Investec Asset Management.
``The last week has seen some commodities fall below marginal cost of production -- the level which should induce supply cutbacks,'' Sacks said by phone from Cape Town, South Africa. ``We view metals like platinum as attractive territory.''
Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. South Africa is the largest producer of the metal.
Palladium futures for December delivery rose $1.45, or 0.8 percent, to $175.40 an ounce in New York. The metal is still down 54 percent this year.
Bloomberg
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today
is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
<< <i>
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today
is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
Excellent point, fc!!!!! Monkeys can be stinkers for sure!!!
<< <i>...and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.... >>
LOL Oh my god.
<< <i>
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today
is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
Maybe they use a lot of oil based fuel to power the mining machines.
I know heating oil(aka diesel) is still way more now than 2yrs ago even after the recent decline and at its peak this year it was more than double the 2006 price.
Platinum facts,
All the platinum ever mined would fit in the average size living room!
Annually, only about 133 tons of platinum are mined, compared to about 1,782 tons of gold.
10 tons of ore and a five month process is needed to make up one ounce of platinum.
Platinum facts
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Sacks said the marginal cost of production for platinum is about $1,100 an ounce. >>
and i say monkeys fly out of my butt while bringing forth rainbows of joy.
so how in the heck was plat ever mined profitably for the last decade then? Understanding that costs go up over time but to say 1100 today
is stupid. Look at that chart for 2000-2006. Costs did not go up that much... or they just mined it for the fun eh?
Maybe they use a lot of oil based fuel to power the mining machines.
I know heating oil(aka diesel) is still way more now than 2yrs ago even after the recent decline and at its peak this year it was more than double the 2006 price.
Platinum facts,
All the platinum ever mined would fit in the average size living room!
Annually, only about 133 tons of platinum are mined, compared to about 1,782 tons of gold.
10 tons of ore and a five month process is needed to make up one ounce of platinum.
Platinum facts >>
i think you are right with those facts. but are they taking into account
the palladium, gold, and silver that they also get in the process? is
that deducted from the overall price of plat mining?
or do they say it cost 1100 an ounce to mine and refine... with this
pile of 3 other PMs sitting there unaccounted for in the figures?
ah questions...
I find it very hard to understand but it lists a lot of the costs/taxes involved.
I guess if someone could comprehend it better than I can you might be able to figure out what they are saying it costs to mine the stuff.
"Average life-of-mine cash operating costs to produce concentrate is estimated at R451 per tonne (US$56.38) of ore or (R3,504) US$438 per 4E ounce on a life of mine basis. The Merensky Reef layer represents the first 15 years of production and the basket price per 4E ounce is modeled at US$1,168 (3 year trailing prices) and US$1,854 (recent prices). The UG2 layer represents the balance of the production. The model includes a subsequent average 15.16% discount from the metal price to estimate the smelter pay discount. Operating margin life of mine on three year trailing 4E metal prices is approximately US$739 per ounce or 63% of revenue and on recent prices it is US$1,355 per ounce or 76%."
owners were ooohing and aaahing with plat over 2000. Now they
are happy to see it get back to 1000 in the short term.
i say 700 is very likely!
owners were ooohing and aaahing with plat over 2000. Now they
are happy to see it get back to 1000 in the short term.
i say 700 is very likely!
fc, I personally hope that you get royally burned in an investment one day. It's about time that you take your gloating attitude elsewhere.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>ah how the times have changed. it seems like yesterday many plat
owners were ooohing and aaahing with plat over 2000. Now they
are happy to see it get back to 1000 in the short term.
i say 700 is very likely!
fc, I personally hope that you get royally burned in an investment one day. It's about time that you take your gloating attitude elsewhere. >>
i am reading this as, "i had no exit strategy to make money on my
PM purchases."
is that not what we are here for? to make money? i guess i am mistaken
and should buy high, sell low, and hang onto it for years at a time
so i can sell low later on when i do not want to sell low now.
plat is used in the automotive industry. it will be a long time before they
recover. thus 700 is a likely price. plat was speculated on and tried
to be in the same league as gold.. and failed miserably.
PM purchases."
Read this as exactly what it says - I want you to lose money on something that you planned to make alot of money investing in. I hope it happens. Period.
Also read it as - fc, I'm tired of you personally, I'm tired of you making snied comments everytime that you think you've pulled off a major coup, when you haven't ever put any significant amount of money on the table. You sell a few cheap common gold half eagles when gold is $1,000 and think you've become Warren Buffet. It's laughable.
is that not what we are here for? to make money? Ask Mr. Eureka, that's his contention.
Maybe when you've put real money into a position someday, you'll know what critical assessment skills are. Knowing you, you'll lose your butt and then begin to wonder why your myopic view doesn't work.
Oh, just a quick remark on making money in pms - don't worry about it, fc. My pm profits and my pm position are quite comfortable.
I knew it would happen.
Interesting, because I'd say $700 is unlikely. The auto industry is not the only use for platinum. As the mines back down production, supply will also shrink. Platinum will be back to 1000 in the fairly near future...on the heels of gold as the post-deleveraging commodity sector gets going again. Personally I own no platinum and never have.
Taking risk is the name of the game. The easy run up in metals is
over and now the fun begins.
You must be a newcomer. I watched gold day by day from September 2002 and the rise up was anything but easy. The first few years you'd be lucky to see a $6 change in the price of gold. It was far from easy and there were very few long term holders of gold on this forum. Very few! There were some very severe setbacks along the way including the May 2006 pounding that took 18 months to recover. I didn't see anyone saying how easy the money was up to that point as gold corrected 20-25%. Considering the run in gold was counter to the dollar and opposed to stocks, there is automatic resistance from the mainstream on anyone attempting to do this. It's borderline uncongressional! The run from August 2007-March 2008 was not indicative of what had occurred during the previous 5 years. Gold at $1000 in March was indicative of the credit problems facing the economy. Today, the problems are only worse which says that $750 gold grossly understates the problems regardless of the FED/Treasury world-wide dollar give-away in progress.
roadrunner
<< <i>i am reading this as, "i had no exit strategy to make money on my
PM purchases."
Read this as exactly what it says - I want you to lose money on something that you planned to make alot of money investing in. I hope it happens. Period.
Also read it as - fc, I'm tired of you personally, I'm tired of you making snied comments everytime that you think you've pulled off a major coup, when you haven't ever put any significant amount of money on the table. You sell a few cheap common gold half eagles when gold is $1,000 and think you've become Warren Buffet. It's laughable.
is that not what we are here for? to make money? Ask Mr. Eureka, that's his contention.
Maybe when you've put real money into a position someday, you'll know what critical assessment skills are. Knowing you, you'll lose your butt and then begin to wonder why your myopic view doesn't work.
Oh, just a quick remark on making money in pms - don't worry about it, fc. My pm profits and my pm position are quite comfortable. >>
I wonder why you took my general comments about plat personally?
hmmm.
oh yea...
<< <i> I say 700 is very likely!
Interesting, because I'd say $700 is unlikely. The auto industry is not the only use for platinum. As the mines back down production, supply will also shrink. Platinum will be back to 1000 in the fairly near future...on the heels of gold as the post-deleveraging commodity sector gets going again. Personally I own no platinum and never have.
Taking risk is the name of the game. The easy run up in metals is
over and now the fun begins.
You must be a newcomer. I watched gold day by day from September 2002 and the rise up was anything but easy. The first few years you'd be lucky to see a $6 change in the price of gold. It was far from easy and there were very few long term holders of gold on this forum. Very few! There were some very severe setbacks along the way including the May 2006 pounding that took 18 months to recover. I didn't see anyone saying how easy the money was up to that point as gold corrected 20-25%. Considering the run in gold was counter to the dollar and opposed to stocks, there is automatic resistance from the mainstream on anyone attempting to do this. It's borderline uncongressional! The run from August 2007-March 2008 was not indicative of what had occurred during the previous 5 years. Gold at $1000 in March was indicative of the credit problems facing the economy. Today, the problems are only worse which says that $750 gold grossly understates the problems regardless of the FED/Treasury world-wide dollar give-away in progress.
roadrunner >>
From 450 to 800 was an easy guess. I bought gold because of it.
The difference between you and I is that I sold mine when a peak appeared instead of getting
greedy and thinking 1200 was right around the corner.
Now my plan has shifted to flipping bullion which has been good to me also.
So now the difference between you and I is that I am more flexible and change my ideas
as the market develops.
Preaching the same thing day after day after day is not productive.
I have no idea what your time line for all these things to happen is... but it truly seems you
will hold onto them for as long as is takes. It appears you are not open to the possibility that
gold will not break 1000 again for years and that is a shame.
I hope others reading these posts have enough common sense to think for themselves.
It is almost time... another year or so the switch to different opportunities. PMs, long term,
are basically for bullion dealers. Not joe the plumber.
I am not on this forum to make "friends". I am here to seek out advice from those who have
a track record of being right and making the correct moves.
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
<< <i>fc, you can't go wrong with guys like roadrunner and deadhorse. They seem to know their stuff. >>
time will surely tell!
in the meantime i will attempt to make money using my own pea for a brain.
Don't kid yourself, many around here didn't join you until gold was well past $725 in Sept/Oct 2008. And the vast majority of Nadler's Wadlers were left at the doorstep in August 2007 waiting for a final retest of $650 that never came. In fact those same guys are still waiting for $650 or less to re-enter...15 months and still waiting. No fc, you were in the vast minority staying with gold past $650 and up to $800+. My end game in gold doesn't even start to kick in until we're well past $1500...and probably $2200+. It has nothing to do with greed. Your sights are just way too low (ie $875 gold from 1980). Gold and commodities have to end in a frenzy....just as stocks have to end in a massive total blowout where they become hated. We've seen nothing of the sort yet. And why we'd all like to think that past predictions are an infallible measure of future success, we all know that's not true.
The difference between you and I is that I sold mine when a peak appeared instead of getting greedy and thinking 1200 was right around the corner.
It didn't matter that I didn't sell mine in March at $1033. As I've said many times the majority of my holdings are in slabbed Saints...not in standard bullion coins. I like the numismatic character of the gold gold, esp 63's-65's. Slabbed $20's are in fact just as high TODAY as they were at the March peak. Fancy that! I've been recommending then at various times over the past 4 years due to their leverage and numismatic value over bullion. Guess you didn't listen. You could have made 30-50% on each major Saint move from 2005-2008 and easily exceeded what gold bullion did. And while Saints are certainly widgets, AGE's are super-widgets. Thing is, one can sop of the entire slabbed $20's on the market in a matter of days or weeks. There will be a time to move from Saints into pure bullion or something else, but I'm not there yet. Gotta be flexible, but only when the time is right. Being flexible is more than changing one's goals every few days or weeks on every minor fluctuation.
Now my plan has shifted to flipping bullion which has been good to me also. So now the difference between you and I is that I am more flexible and change my ideas as the market develops.
Flexible? I recommended MS64 $2-1/2 Libs and $5 Libs in MS64 as give-aways in September 2007. I loaded up on them....and dumped most of them after gaining 40-50% in a couple of months. They are currently on the gold buy list again...esp the $2-1/2's. One can buy more than gold bullion in a gold bull market. If you followed some of our advice over the years and held on to slabbed $20's (esp 63's to 65's) you did fine. Curious thing about those MS65 saints, they lost most of their premiums over the MS64's during the first quarter of 2008...and opened up a window of opportunity. This was the first time in the current gold bull that MS65 saints didn't fetch at least a 40-75% premium to 64's (they went as low as 20%). Well, those MS65 saints regained a bunch as gold got slaughtered in Sept/Oct. To those holding slabbed $20's (and there are a number of people here with such positions), the drop in gold prices to $700/oz did NOT affect them. They actually gained over the March highs! Those that were fussy in their Saint selections could also gain further % by having them CAC'd. Sounds pretty flexible to me.
Preaching the same thing day after day after day is not productive.
Pretty much what we get from you. When this thread first started in 2004 no one but those on the gold thread saw $800-$1000 gold coming. And many of us back then were looking for $1500-$2500 down the road, so $1200 would be an extremely poor outcome...and most unlikely imo. We are in mid-stream in the commodities bull - halfway there. You're right, I don't see any other choice from here but $1500+ gold. Bernanke will see to it that inflation rather than deflation is main game.
I am not on this forum to make "friends". I am here to seek out advice from those who have a track record of being right and making the correct moves.
Time will tell if you actually listen. I'd much rather be around with my position intact at $1500-2500 gold than to get thrown off the bull while trying to make 10% trades and miss the next move (ie like Nadler's Toddlers).
roadrunner
Anglo Platinum Closure May Remove 3% of World Supply (Update1)
By Antony Sguazzin
Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest platinum producer, said an accident at its Polokwane smelter may cut production by as much as 200,000 ounces this year. Its shares fell and metal prices advanced.
Matte, or semi-processed ore, leaked out of a furnace at the plant 200 miles north of Johannesburg and came into contact with water, causing damage that will take six weeks to repair, the Johannesburg-based company said in a statement today. It will cut output this year by 150,000 to 200,000 ounces, equal to as much as 3 percent of global supply.
``It's not good news for them, but great news for the platinum price,'' Sasha Naryshkine, a manager at Johannesburg- based fund manager Vestact, said by phone today.
Platinum supply has fallen short of demand in eight of the last nine years, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. Demand has been bolstered by carmakers, who use the metal in autocatalysts and now account for almost half of all demand.
``Losses associated with this shut down will not be recovered in 2008,'' Anglo Platinum said, adding that ore may be stockpiled and processed next year. A loss of 200,000 ounces would be equal to 8.3 percent of its earlier full-year production target of 2.4 million ounces.
Anglo Platinum in 2000 said it was starting an expansion that would boost production to 3.5 million ounces in 2006.
Platinum for immediate delivery rose as much as 4.1 percent to $886 an ounce in London. The metal has declined 42 percent this year. Anglo Platinum fell 36.10 rand, or 8.1 percent, to 408.80 rand in Johannesburg.
``It's a very important smelter and any production losses could be bullish for prices,'' said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of marketing and sales at Hanau, Germany-based Heraeus Metallhandels GmbH, which owns five precious metals refineries.
The smelter is one of two operated by Anglo Platinum, which supplies two-fifths of the world's platinum.
To contact the reporter on this story: Antony Sguazzin in Johannesburg at asguazzin@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 5, 2008
<< <i>Do I see a Plat spike here???????
>>
Yes I do!!!!!!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>Do I see a Plat spike here???????
>>
Yes I do!!!!!!!!
Yes I do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<< <i>Another cliff dive for Platinum today!!!!!
But I thought it was plunging below $700 a few months ago I wonder what happened...maybe the oracle himself can enlighten all of us?
I knew it would happen.
Oddly, I don't see all of the gold stocks taking the same pull back today such as intermediates AEM, IAG, and EGO. Decent junior mining stocks like GSS, CDE, and TRE are still at their high levels if not higher levels. And silver is hanging tough. It sort of smacks of a contrived paper sell off....before another move up. Typically, those juniors would fall into the dumpster of any signs of weakness. They are doing anything but that. And also those gold stacks have been lagging the pog recently. Some moving counter to gold right now is actually bullish imo.
roadrunner
Then I notice that gold has dropped about $23.00 like a rock.
Gee, I wonder what's causing that?
I knew it would happen.