it rose from 1500 to 2100 almost as quickly. 1 year chart
still, it was 1200 a few months before that, and was between 1100 and 1300 for the 18 months prior. 5 year chart
while the price drop is a terrible thing for recent buyers, and is killing 2008 sales, under the right circumstances lower platinum prices could save the series.
If platinum becomes more affordable, it could increase the collector base, which was never large and has declined dramatically since platinum skyrocketed.
Still, I think collectors will be slow to return to platinum.
For one thing, the bullion fluctuations are scary.
For another, the proposed 2009 designs -- especially the one selected by the committee-- are not compelling.
On a limited budget, I'd rather buy a $10 buffalo gold or a high relief St. Gauden's 2009 coin than a platinum coin featuring an uprooted tree on a disembodied hand. 2009 plat designs
If platinum becomes more affordable, it could increase the collector base, which was never large and has declined dramatically since platinum skyrocketed.
Still, I think collectors will be slow to return to platinum.
The Mint really doesn't understand collectors. When they produce 3 different varieties of the most expensive coins out there, at an annual cost over $10,000 just to maintain a collection, what kind of loyal customer base do they think that they're going to have?
On a limited budget, I'd rather buy a $10 buffalo gold or a high relief St. Gauden's 2009 coin than a platinum coin featuring an uprooted tree on a disembodied hand.
And rob your heirs of the chance to ask why grandpa would buy a coin that is famously known as "The Hand"?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I never thought Platinum would drop below $1500 >>
Some background: ESKOM is the South African government-owned power utility, which was mismanaged for years. It did nothing to upgrade its generating capability, despite warnings for years that demand would overtake supply someday.
That day finally arrived, and to prevent total overload disaster, rolling blackouts were instituted, and power was cut to the mines, which supply a lot of gold, and most of the world's platinum. This caused users to start hoarding, and commodities traders to start speculating. That's why the price shot up.
It's summer here in the Northern Hemisphere, and winter below the Equator. Right now, it's in the 70's in Pretoria, and air conditioners are less used, so ESKOM has been able to restore power to all users, including the mines, and production is normal.
ESKOM has a "Load Shedding gauge" on its Web site that looks like this now:
But summer weather will return to South Africa around mid-December, with consistent daily temperatures between 80 and 90, and it's likely that load shedding will return. If ESKOM's gauge does go back to looking like the one on this Web site, expect platinum prices to go up, if power is rationed to the mines again.
This situation will not go away for years, because ESKOM cannot build the powerplants South Africa needs overnight.
Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.
Add that to a little bubble action, slower car sales, the REAL possibility of electric cars, which will not need a catalytic converter and you have the perfect storm for Platinum to crash.
<< <i>I never thought Platinum would drop below $1500 >>
Some background: ESKOM is the South African government-owned power utility, which was mismanaged for years. It did nothing to upgrade its generating capability, despite warnings for years that demand would overtake supply someday.
That day finally arrived, and to prevent total overload disaster, rolling blackouts were instituted, and power was cut to the mines, which supply a lot of gold, and most of the world's platinum. This caused users to start hoarding, and commodities traders to start speculating. That's why the price shot up.
It's summer here in the Northern Hemisphere, and winter below the Equator. Right now, it's in the 70's in Pretoria, and air conditioners are less used, so ESKOM has been able to restore power to all users, including the mines, and production is normal.
ESKOM has a "Load Shedding gauge" on its Web site that looks like this now:
But summer weather will return to South Africa around mid-December, with consistent daily temperatures between 80 and 90, and it's likely that load shedding will return. If ESKOM's gauge does go back to looking like the one on this Web site, expect platinum prices to go up, if power is rationed to the mines again.
This situation will not go away for years, because ESKOM cannot build the powerplants South Africa needs overnight. >>
<< <i>90% of all commodities went down 20% recently, the vast majority of which have nothing to do with African electricity >>
Correct. But look back at what happened in February, when platinum went UP more than 50%, due to "African electricity." If that same event reoccurs, it may present an opportunity to buy low beforehand and sell high afterwards. That's really the point of my post, BigE.
Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.
Platinum slips 3 percent on demand woes; gold steady Thu 2 Oct 2008, 8:41 GMT
By Jan Harvey
LONDON (Reuters) - Platinum tumbled to a 33-month low as fears over demand from the car industry weighed on prices and the dollar rose to a one-year high versus the euro, but gold was steady as investors bought bullion as a haven from risk.
The passing of a proposed $700-billion rescue plan for Wall Street by the U.S. Senate has calmed some fears over the outlook for the financial sector, but the package has still to be approved by the House of Representatives.
Spot platinum was quoted at $979/999 an ounce at 0920 GMT, against $1,002 an ounce in late New York trade on Wednesday. Earlier it touched a session low of $976, its weakest level since January 2006.
Low U.S. auto sales figures released on Wednesday are pressuring the white metal.
"Motor vehicle sales in the U.S. came out way below expectations, the lowest since 1993 in terms of a month-on-month increase," said Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet.
"When the market is illiquid, it is vulnerable to large moves," he added. "Combined with that, we have the dollar which is continuing to strengthen. There is nothing working in favour of platinum group metals at this stage."
Major carmakers reported plunging U.S. sales for September, led by a 34 percent slide at Ford Motor Co. The escalating credit crisis is raising fresh doubts as to when the world's largest car market will stabilise.
A dip in car sales in the U.S. has raised fears over the outlook for the entire global automotive industry.
Around half of the world's annual platinum demand comes from the car industry, which uses the white metal as a component in autocatalysts.
Platinum prices have shed nearly 60 percent of their value since they hit a record $2,290 an ounce in March this year, as demand fears dragged the market lower.
The stronger dollar is also pressuring platinum. The U.S. currency firmed to a one-year high against the euro on Thursday as the euro slid ahead of a European Central Bank decision on interest rates.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced metals such as platinum more expensive for holders of other currencies. It also tends to weigh on gold, which is often bought as an alternative investment to the dollar.
SINGAPORE, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Platinum jumped more than 3 percent on Tuesday on bargain hunting, having fallen to its weakest in almost three years the previous day, with firm gold also boosting prices. Platinum <XPT=> was trading at $992 an ounce, up $30.50 an ounce from New York's notional close on Monday, having hit an intraday high of $995 an ounce. Platinum tumbled to $920 an ounce on Monday, its lowest level since November 2005, on fears of falling demand following poor car sales, especially in the United States. Prices are well below a lifetime high of $2,290 an ounce struck in March. (Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Louise Heavens)
<< <i>Don't forget Rhodium...it may also meet "Mr. Gold" soon...down to $1,810 ( Earlier this year it hit 10K )
If they made Rhodium coins, I'd be tempted. >>
What is Rhodium used for?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
People here like to say they are investing in plat but yet have no strategy to make money.
They buy when it is expensive and watch it fall like a rock. I know of very few forum members who unloaded at 1800+.
Did they do any basic research? Probably not. Did they study a long term graph? Probably not. Do they know what plat normally sold for during the last 5-10 year period? Probably not.
And imagine, they probably think it is a good buy right now being so low.
A picture is worth a 1000 words. Just look at this graph. Does it not say idiots did not sell a few months back? It does to me!
Well the same thing is going on with all the metals right now. People are hyping it as the best buy going on right now... yet none sold when it was OBVIOUS things had peaked except a few forum members who get bashed to heck and back when they mention this. Why do people want to believe the PM bulls so much? Wishful thinking I bet. They want it to happen and so they do not think critically about things.
Plat is a perfect example. Oh sure, it is a PM. I will grant you that. Can you make money on it? I highly doubt it. After all the chance has already passed for the last years run up.
It is truly time to forget about PMs for the short term. The outlook has to once again be years if you plan to buy and hold... this talk of inflation is just that, talk. Wealth is being destroyed left and right by the billions and billions yet inflation seems likely?
oi. the graph. what do you think is a fair price for plat? I say 500-600 an ounce during a downturn in the economy. once things pick up say 700-800 with potential to increase slowly over the years.
Well you got that part right.........so when are you going to post up the gold charts from 2001 to "prove" that gold was a silly play all the way to $1033, and then all the way back to $255? Any one with a brain can see that it's all over for gold and it will crumble from here as the USD strengthens back to 2002 highs (1.20).
Why do people want to believe the PM bulls so much? Wishful thinking I bet. They want it to happen and so they do not think critically about things
You're confusing commodity metals with currency metals - very differnent animals and the primary reason why I've never bought a platinum coin whether at $500 or $2500. I just don't understand the allure, never will. On the flip side, I can't see how people can buy into the paper equity and fiat trap which can only end one way. I've posted any number of anti-deflationary articles to show that there is not just one way of looking at the current crisis. Obviously one side has it all wrong. There are heavyweights on both sides of the line....just like there were about the derivatives situation 1-2 years ago.
Remember when the discussion was bantered about whether a failure in a derivative meant a minute loss (.1 or .01% of notional value) as most were valuating them. Yet there was a fringe group who stated that notional value could become essentially a 100% loss in many circumstances. We have since found out that the latter opinion, though in the distinct minority for years, was the correct opinion. Today's situation with deflation vs inflation is an even more complicated scenario to predict. It's a lot more than just asset prices falling. Iceland is figuring that out now. Only a few months ago they had a very low CPI...not any more as it has broken abouve double digits. The UK will get to experience that soon as well. They will show us which way we're headed.
We've never had a time where great monetary stimulation didn't lead to rampant inflation. We've already inflated money supplies to levels totally unheard of in the past....and all in the space of 1-2 months. Double digit price inflation will co-exist with deflation. Gold has corrected back to the 200 day trend line. That's a moderate curve built over 7 years and a long ways from heading stratospheric. $300 of excess speculation was just blown off. No doubt the CB's are dumping any gold they can afford to at the problem. But this is only temporary and Asia will be more than happy to buy up any of the tons they have been dumping in vain. I believe gold will bounce back up as the dollar weakens. That could have started today. There can be no long term strength in a currency whose only merits is that most contracts are currently required to be settled in dollars and that it's not as worthless as all the others.
Well you got that part right.........so when are you going to post up the gold charts from 2001 to "prove" that gold was a silly play all the way to $1033, and then all the way back to $255? Any one with a brain can see that it's all over for gold and it will crumble from here as the USD strengthens back to 2002 highs (1.20). >>
Is there anyone here who will argue that when people bought gold at 600+ during the last major run up in gold... if they did not sell before or after the peak... they had to sit on their gold for many many years before they broke even? There is a distinct possibility of that happening again. It is possible. Anyone has to admit it. It has a much more likely chance of happening then 1500 dollar gold in my mind this time around.
<< <i>Why do people want to believe the PM bulls so much? Wishful thinking I bet. They want it to happen and so they do not think critically about things
You're confusing commodity metals with currency metals - very differnent animals and the primary reason why I've never bought a platinum coin whether at $500 or $2500. I just don't understand the allure, never will. On the flip side, I can't see how people can buy into the paper equity and fiat trap which can only end one way. >>
Yes, but what is the timetable for such a thing? I highly doubt it will be in your lifetime! Chances are we will both be in the soil before the US dollar's value goes to zero or some amount close to it.
It is like you have lost all faith in the US and its ability to work out of problems. I wonder how many during the great depression talked about how the US was doomed... only to see it be reborn into a power house of a country and still is! Things are cyclical. Lessons must be relearned. Hard times and good times are a natural cycle.
<< <i>I've posted any number of anti-deflationary articles to show that there is not just one way of looking at the current crisis. Obviously one side has it all wrong. There are heavyweights on both sides of the line....just like there were about the derivatives situation 1-2 years ago.
Remember when the discussion was bantered about whether a failure in a derivative meant a minute loss (.1 or .01% of notional value) as most were valuating them. Yet there was a fringe group who stated that notional value could become essentially a 100% loss in many circumstances. We have since found out that the latter opinion, though in the distinct minority for years, was the correct opinion. Today's situation with deflation vs inflation is an even more complicated scenario to predict. It's a lot more than just asset prices falling. Iceland is figuring that out now. Only a few months ago they had a very low CPI...not any more as it has broken abouve double digits. The UK will get to experience that soon as well. They will show us which way we're headed. >>
The banks gambled and lost. In a few years the stronger banks will survive and continue on. Iceland for gosh sakes. This little itty bitty country that had banks that aspired for great profits and got burnt by wall street. Nothing has changed. Banks fail if they are ran by idiots.
<< <i>We've never had a time where great monetary stimulation didn't lead to rampant inflation. We've already inflated money supplies to levels totally unheard of in the past....and all in the space of 1-2 months. Double digit price inflation will co-exist with deflation. Gold has corrected back to the 200 day trend line. That's a moderate curve built over 7 years and a long ways from heading stratospheric. $300 of excess speculation was just blown off. No doubt the CB's are dumping any gold they can afford to at the problem. But this is only temporary and Asia will be more than happy to buy up any of the tons they have been dumping in vain. I believe gold will bounce back up as the dollar weakens. That could have started today. There can be no long term strength in a currency whose only merits is that most contracts are currently required to be settled in dollars and that it's not as worthless as all the others.
roadrunner >>
Who is to say how much money should be in circulation and in use? We deal with inflation on a daily basis. Prices have risen since I was young. What was once a dollar is now two dollars. What was once a good salary of 25000 is now 50000.
From what I have read it is not the CBs dumping gold... it is hedge funds.
As other countries currency weakens it makes the dollar look even better reinforcing it.
Yes gold is different then plat. I cannot argue that. But! it will fair only so much as the others do. Oil is dropping like a rock. Bad for gold. Other currencies weaken, the dollar get better. Bad for gold.
So the only prayer left it seems is rampant inflation devaluing the dollar and gold will double in price... yet only buy the same amount of goods as today due to that inflation. That is your most hopeful outcome for gold?
good grief. And it has to happen within the next 5-10 years for it to have value as many gold owners are probably 50-60 years old. Eventually they need the money to retire. It sure is not the youths of america buying this metal (20-30 year olds).
I dont know what to say. Metals are going to bottom out soon but I do not expect them to rise up from the ashes like Sinclair is talking about. If he mentions Weimar germany one more time i will puke.
As always you make for an interesting read roadrunner and i thank you for giving me a different outlook on things. I always consider what you say!
fc, you must be in the wrong forum. Just buy your stocks, bonds, and save your dollars. You'll be okay I'm sure even though you've seen a couple warning shots now I'm sure they don't mean a thing. The goverment never rigged anything. All this talk makes me think of the bible which is wierd, we see but don't believe.
Is there anyone here who will argue that when people bought gold at 600+ during the last major run up in gold... if they did not sell before or after the peak... they had to sit on their gold for many many years before they broke even? There is a distinct possibility of that happening again. It is possible. Anyone has to admit it. It has a much more likely chance of happening then 1500 dollar gold in my mind this time around.
ME! But seriously, this is apples and oranges. The $600 level in 1979 came in the last few months of the bull market. My contention is that we're going through a killer 25-40% correction very similar to 1974-1975 that occurs years before the final blowout in gold. Note that that was a severe recession (deflation) followed with moderate money pumping that reared right back within 12 months to set the stage for a massive 3 years of inflation from 1977-1979 (sound familar?). Right now we're still on the short side of the gold curve...imho. If you believe the gold bull is over, then I understand how you arrive at the $600 reference. I just don't agree with it.
The dollar won't go to zero anytime soon, if ever. But it would certainly become something different (amero?) if it loses more than half of it's current value. Losing 30-40% of it's current value is certainly possible....and more than enough to propel gold to $1500 alone....without any speculation added in. But that's not to say the USD still can't strengthen further before finally succumbing to it's previous longer term trend. Cohodk likes USDX of 104. I've at least factored in the possibility. It won't get there w/o 2 more legs.
The banks gambled and lost. In a few years the stronger banks will survive
They gambled like drunken fools...all of them. They are all insolvent even if they won't open the books to show it: JPM, ING, UBS, Citi, MS, HSBC, GS, Deutsche, ..every last one of the top 20 or 30 banks. All bankrupt. It will come out. What does "less bankrupt" mean?
Who is to say how much money should be in circulation and in use?
Well certainly it has been shown that the banks, FED, Treasury, and Congress should not be in charge of this decision. Incompetence and thievery. You must be a lot younger than me, but the $25,000 that my dad took home in the early 1970's is like $150K today. The costs of my college education are 10X higher today than they were when I went. Maybe the price of tuna fish is 2X higher over the past 20 years. But those kinds of things are in the minority. A good coin from the mid-70's is worth 50X that amount today. Once you start applying prices to harder assets, things go haywire. I don't buy the 2X number you refer too...except for appliances and tuna fish.
From what I have read it is not the CBs dumping gold... it is hedge funds.
The hedge funds are dumping paper gold. I can assure you that the CB's or their henchman via ETF's or other sources, are dumping physical for immediate effects.
Oil is dropping like a rock. Bad for gold.
You mean it WAS dropping like a rock. Probably all done dropping and ready to rebound for the winter season. Good for gold. Gold has fallen 12% this year....oil has fallen 45%....good for gold. They weren't coupled in that scenario. The dollar and yen have had a nice run while unwinding contracts and carry trades. In the end, all currencies will lose value to gold. Note that besides the dollar and yen, other world currencies are near all time high levels vs gold. What happens when the immediate need for dollars and yen falls as contracts are settled? They will lose ground too, and quickly as everyone ducks and heads for something that will hold value. That means hard assets and hitting stores and shops for key living items.
the only prayer left it seems is rampant inflation devaluing the dollar and gold will double in price... yet only buy the same amount of goods as today due to that inflation. That is your most hopeful outcome for gold?
That's the least promising outcome for gold. Gold will be enhanced by speculation as well. It will go a lot further than sheer fundamentals tell it to. Should either outcome be likely, should we all sit here and invest in the Dow or Dollar as patriotic Americans to support our thieving elected officials and bankers? Look back to the 2001-early 2008 experience where gold went up multiples of the CPI and routine baskets of goods. It did the same thing in the 1970's and 1930's. It will outpace the price increases of goods in general, though not of all commodities as oil has shown.
good grief. And it has to happen within the next 5-10 years for it to have value as many gold owners are probably 50-60 years old. Eventually they need the money to retire. It sure is not the youths of america buying this metal (20-30 year olds).
The youths of America are screwed for a while, plain and simple. But at least they have decades to work through the mess we left them. Yes, this mess will mostly take care of itself in 5-10 years. Most of it within 5 years. Puke not withstanding, Sinclair has called the major financial moves in this economy to a TEE! Yeah, his gold calls have not been 100%. But he predicted all the major points to $1000 like clockwork, derivatives, bank failures, etc. Sorry if the didn't tell you to sell but he never has. He gave everyone that read him the tools to know when to get out. JS (nor anyone else!) didn't see the extent to which the PTB would go to save their fortunes, much of it illegal and unprecedented I might add. The fact that JS is still calling for other specific "bad" things to occur within the economy should only be real cause for concern. It matters little where gold goes. His track record on the economic front has been dead on....regardless of how many times he states Weimar or "this is it." Just hope that at some point he starts to say "that was it!"
Thanks for the rebuttal. It has made me more cautious, esp on what the potential downsides to gold is. But I also made my decision on how to play this out a long time ago.
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>You should be able to find platinum cheaper if you look hard enough.....
2004 proofs for $795.00..... a bit cheaper then normal. >>
You are talking 1/10 oz.? Have people actually been paying $8000/oz. for these Proof coins? >>
The 2004 platinum proof coins are the key date coins to this set and are priced well above melt value.
still, it was 1200 a few months before that, and was between 1100 and 1300 for the 18 months prior. 5 year chart
while the price drop is a terrible thing for recent buyers, and is killing 2008 sales, under the right circumstances lower platinum prices could save the series.
If platinum becomes more affordable, it could increase the collector base, which was never large and has declined dramatically since platinum skyrocketed.
Still, I think collectors will be slow to return to platinum.
For one thing, the bullion fluctuations are scary.
For another, the proposed 2009 designs -- especially the one selected by the committee-- are not compelling.
On a limited budget, I'd rather buy a $10 buffalo gold or a high relief St. Gauden's 2009 coin than a platinum coin featuring an uprooted tree on a disembodied hand.
2009 plat designs
<< <i>
<< <i>You should be able to find platinum cheaper if you look hard enough.....
2004 proofs for $795.00..... a bit cheaper then normal. >>
You are talking 1/10 oz.? Have people actually been paying $8000/oz. for these Proof coins? >>
It's a key coin and they were selling for a grand. They have around 5400 minted so you don't see them in the 1/10 ounce everyday.
Still, I think collectors will be slow to return to platinum.
The Mint really doesn't understand collectors. When they produce 3 different varieties of the most expensive coins out there, at an annual cost over $10,000 just to maintain a collection, what kind of loyal customer base do they think that they're going to have?
On a limited budget, I'd rather buy a $10 buffalo gold or a high relief St. Gauden's 2009 coin than a platinum coin featuring an uprooted tree on a disembodied hand.
And rob your heirs of the chance to ask why grandpa would buy a coin that is famously known as "The Hand"?
I knew it would happen.
The mint considers platinum there premium product and that is how they treat it......
Nice turnaround!!!!
I've fallen, and I'm getting up!!!
<< <i>
Nice turnaround!!!!
I've fallen, and I'm getting up!!!
You've tripped and you can't come down
<< <i>
<< <i>
Nice turnaround!!!!
I've fallen, and I'm getting up!!!
You've tripped and you can't come down
Hi, we are Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium.
I never thought Platinum would drop below $1500
You never really know what the Mint is going to do, but I am inclined to agree with you!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I never thought Platinum would drop below $1500 >>
Some background: ESKOM is the South African government-owned power utility, which was mismanaged for years. It did nothing to upgrade its generating capability, despite warnings for years that demand would overtake supply someday.
That day finally arrived, and to prevent total overload disaster, rolling blackouts were instituted, and power was cut to the mines, which supply a lot of gold, and most of the world's platinum. This caused users to start hoarding, and commodities traders to start speculating. That's why the price shot up.
It's summer here in the Northern Hemisphere, and winter below the Equator. Right now, it's in the 70's in Pretoria, and air conditioners are less used, so ESKOM has been able to restore power to all users, including the mines, and production is normal.
ESKOM has a "Load Shedding gauge" on its Web site that looks like this now:
But summer weather will return to South Africa around mid-December, with consistent daily temperatures between 80 and 90, and it's likely that load shedding will return. If ESKOM's gauge does go back to looking like the one on this Web site, expect platinum prices to go up, if power is rationed to the mines again.
This situation will not go away for years, because ESKOM cannot build the powerplants South Africa needs overnight.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
Add that to a little bubble action, slower car sales, the REAL possibility of electric cars, which will not need a catalytic converter and you have the perfect storm for Platinum to crash.
Thank you so much! Great information!
<< <i>
<< <i>I never thought Platinum would drop below $1500 >>
Some background: ESKOM is the South African government-owned power utility, which was mismanaged for years. It did nothing to upgrade its generating capability, despite warnings for years that demand would overtake supply someday.
That day finally arrived, and to prevent total overload disaster, rolling blackouts were instituted, and power was cut to the mines, which supply a lot of gold, and most of the world's platinum. This caused users to start hoarding, and commodities traders to start speculating. That's why the price shot up.
It's summer here in the Northern Hemisphere, and winter below the Equator. Right now, it's in the 70's in Pretoria, and air conditioners are less used, so ESKOM has been able to restore power to all users, including the mines, and production is normal.
ESKOM has a "Load Shedding gauge" on its Web site that looks like this now:
But summer weather will return to South Africa around mid-December, with consistent daily temperatures between 80 and 90, and it's likely that load shedding will return. If ESKOM's gauge does go back to looking like the one on this Web site, expect platinum prices to go up, if power is rationed to the mines again.
This situation will not go away for years, because ESKOM cannot build the powerplants South Africa needs overnight. >>
Cool Chart!!
<< <i>90% of all commodities went down 20% recently, the vast majority of which have nothing to do with African electricity >>
Correct. But look back at what happened in February, when platinum went UP more than 50%, due to "African electricity." If that same event reoccurs, it may present an opportunity to buy low beforehand and sell high afterwards. That's really the point of my post, BigE.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
<< <i>
Kitco Plat >>
Can you say flat-line????
<< <i>
Hi, we are Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium. >>
That's
Thu 2 Oct 2008, 8:41 GMT
By Jan Harvey
LONDON (Reuters) - Platinum tumbled to a 33-month low as fears over demand from the car industry weighed on prices and the dollar rose to a one-year high versus the euro, but gold was steady as investors bought bullion as a haven from risk.
The passing of a proposed $700-billion rescue plan for Wall Street by the U.S. Senate has calmed some fears over the outlook for the financial sector, but the package has still to be approved by the House of Representatives.
Spot platinum was quoted at $979/999 an ounce at 0920 GMT, against $1,002 an ounce in late New York trade on Wednesday. Earlier it touched a session low of $976, its weakest level since January 2006.
Low U.S. auto sales figures released on Wednesday are pressuring the white metal.
"Motor vehicle sales in the U.S. came out way below expectations, the lowest since 1993 in terms of a month-on-month increase," said Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet.
"When the market is illiquid, it is vulnerable to large moves," he added. "Combined with that, we have the dollar which is continuing to strengthen. There is nothing working in favour of platinum group metals at this stage."
Major carmakers reported plunging U.S. sales for September, led by a 34 percent slide at Ford Motor Co. The escalating credit crisis is raising fresh doubts as to when the world's largest car market will stabilise.
A dip in car sales in the U.S. has raised fears over the outlook for the entire global automotive industry.
Around half of the world's annual platinum demand comes from the car industry, which uses the white metal as a component in autocatalysts.
Platinum prices have shed nearly 60 percent of their value since they hit a record $2,290 an ounce in March this year, as demand fears dragged the market lower.
The stronger dollar is also pressuring platinum. The U.S. currency firmed to a one-year high against the euro on Thursday as the euro slid ahead of a European Central Bank decision on interest rates.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced metals such as platinum more expensive for holders of other currencies. It also tends to weigh on gold, which is often bought as an alternative investment to the dollar.
SINGAPORE, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Platinum jumped more than 3
percent on Tuesday on bargain hunting, having fallen to its
weakest in almost three years the previous day, with firm gold
also boosting prices. Platinum <XPT=> was trading at $992 an ounce, up $30.50 an
ounce from New York's notional close on Monday, having hit an
intraday high of $995 an ounce. Platinum tumbled to $920 an ounce on Monday, its lowest
level since November 2005, on fears of falling demand following
poor car sales, especially in the United States. Prices are
well below a lifetime high of $2,290 an ounce struck in March.
(Reporting by Lewa Pardomuan; Editing by Louise Heavens)
Linkadink
<< <i>
>>
They are all falling, but Platinum under 850? Gold and plat could meet soon!
<< <i>They are all falling, but Platinum under 850? Gold and plat could meet soon! >>
If that happens, I'm backing up the truck and buying platinum with a vengeance.
<< <i>
<< <i>They are all falling, but Platinum under 850? Gold and plat could meet soon! >>
If that happens, I'm backing up the truck and buying platinum with a vengeance. >>
Where can you buy?
If that happens, I'm backing up the truck and buying platinum with a vengeance.
For all practical purposes, there's not alot of difference between today's relative prices and having them cross on the chart. Why wait?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>They are all falling, but Platinum under 850? Gold and plat could meet soon! >>
If that happens, I'm backing up the truck and buying platinum with a vengeance.
For all practical purposes, there's not alot of difference between today's relative prices and having them cross on the chart. Why wait? >>
Don't forget Rhodium...it may also meet "Mr. Gold" soon...down to $1,810 ( Earlier this year it hit 10K )
If they made Rhodium coins, I'd be tempted.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Don't forget Rhodium...it may also meet "Mr. Gold" soon...down to $1,810 ( Earlier this year it hit 10K )
If they made Rhodium coins, I'd be tempted.
What is Rhodium used for?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>
<< <i>Don't forget Rhodium...it may also meet "Mr. Gold" soon...down to $1,810 ( Earlier this year it hit 10K )
If they made Rhodium coins, I'd be tempted.
What is Rhodium used for? >>
Wikipedia Says
Anyone venture a guess??
The Mint needs to adjust the Plat Eagles again!!!
<< <i>How low will Platinum go????
Anyone venture a guess??
The Mint needs to adjust the Plat Eagles again!!!
Holy Carp!!! $818!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<< <i>And still sinking 798.00. >>
$783
<< <i>Platinum Group Says Current Price Would Shut Down Mine Projects >>
Interesting article. Could shutting down mines in effect, start the price back up???
People here like to say they are investing in plat but yet have no
strategy to make money.
They buy when it is expensive and watch it fall like a rock. I know of
very few forum members who unloaded at 1800+.
Did they do any basic research? Probably not. Did they study a long
term graph? Probably not. Do they know what plat normally sold for
during the last 5-10 year period? Probably not.
And imagine, they probably think it is a good buy right now being so
low.
A picture is worth a 1000 words. Just look at this graph. Does it not
say idiots did not sell a few months back? It does to me!
Well the same thing is going on with all the metals right now. People
are hyping it as the best buy going on right now... yet none sold when
it was OBVIOUS things had peaked except a few forum members who
get bashed to heck and back when they mention this. Why do people
want to believe the PM bulls so much? Wishful thinking I bet. They want
it to happen and so they do not think critically about things.
Plat is a perfect example. Oh sure, it is a PM. I will grant you that.
Can you make money on it? I highly doubt it. After all the chance has
already passed for the last years run up.
It is truly time to forget about PMs for the short term. The outlook has
to once again be years if you plan to buy and hold... this talk of inflation is just that, talk. Wealth is being destroyed left and right by
the billions and billions yet inflation seems likely?
oi. the graph. what do you think is a fair price for plat? I say 500-600
an ounce during a downturn in the economy. once things pick up say
700-800 with potential to increase slowly over the years.
time to get flamed.
Well you got that part right.........so when are you going to post up the gold charts from 2001 to "prove" that gold was a silly play all the way to $1033, and then all the way back to $255? Any one with a brain can see that it's all over for gold and it will crumble from here as the USD strengthens back to 2002 highs (1.20).
Why do people want to believe the PM bulls so much? Wishful thinking I bet. They want it to happen and so they do not think critically about things
You're confusing commodity metals with currency metals - very differnent animals and the primary reason why I've never bought a platinum coin whether at $500 or $2500. I just don't understand the allure, never will. On the flip side, I can't see how people can buy into the paper equity and fiat trap which can only end one way. I've posted any number of anti-deflationary articles to show that there is not just one way of looking at the current crisis. Obviously one side has it all wrong. There are heavyweights on both sides of the line....just like there were about the derivatives situation 1-2 years ago.
Remember when the discussion was bantered about whether a failure in a derivative meant a minute loss (.1 or .01% of notional value) as most were valuating them. Yet there was a fringe group who stated that notional value could become essentially a 100% loss in many circumstances. We have since found out that the latter opinion, though in the distinct minority for years, was the correct opinion. Today's situation with deflation vs inflation is an even more complicated scenario to predict. It's a lot more than just asset prices falling. Iceland is figuring that out now. Only a few months ago they had a very low CPI...not any more as it has broken abouve double digits. The UK will get to experience that soon as well. They will show us which way we're headed.
We've never had a time where great monetary stimulation didn't lead to rampant inflation. We've already inflated money supplies to levels totally unheard of in the past....and all in the space of 1-2 months. Double digit price inflation will co-exist with deflation. Gold has corrected back to the 200 day trend line. That's a moderate curve built over 7 years and a long ways from heading stratospheric. $300 of excess speculation was just blown off. No doubt the CB's are dumping any gold they can afford to at the problem. But this is only temporary and Asia will be more than happy to buy up any of the tons they have been dumping in vain. I believe gold will bounce back up as the dollar weakens. That could have started today. There can be no long term strength in a currency whose only merits is that most contracts are currently required to be settled in dollars and that it's not as worthless as all the others.
roadrunner
<< <i> time to get flamed
Well you got that part right.........so when are you going to post up the gold charts from 2001 to "prove" that gold was a silly play all the way to $1033, and then all the way back to $255? Any one with a brain can see that it's all over for gold and it will crumble from here as the USD strengthens back to 2002 highs (1.20). >>
Is there anyone here who will argue that when people bought gold
at 600+ during the last major run up in gold... if they did not sell
before or after the peak... they had to sit on their gold for many many
years before they broke even? There is a distinct possibility of that
happening again. It is possible. Anyone has to admit it. It has a much
more likely chance of happening then 1500 dollar gold in my mind this
time around.
<< <i>Why do people want to believe the PM bulls so much? Wishful thinking I bet. They want it to happen and so they do not think critically about things
You're confusing commodity metals with currency metals - very differnent animals and the primary reason why I've never bought a platinum coin whether at $500 or $2500. I just don't understand the allure, never will. On the flip side, I can't see how people can buy into the paper equity and fiat trap which can only end one way. >>
Yes, but what is the timetable for such a thing? I highly doubt it will
be in your lifetime! Chances are we will both be in the soil before the
US dollar's value goes to zero or some amount close to it.
It is like you have lost all faith in the US and its ability to work out of
problems. I wonder how many during the great depression talked
about how the US was doomed... only to see it be reborn into a
power house of a country and still is! Things are cyclical. Lessons must
be relearned. Hard times and good times are a natural cycle.
<< <i>I've posted any number of anti-deflationary articles to show that there is not just one way of looking at the current crisis. Obviously one side has it all wrong. There are heavyweights on both sides of the line....just like there were about the derivatives situation 1-2 years ago.
Remember when the discussion was bantered about whether a failure in a derivative meant a minute loss (.1 or .01% of notional value) as most were valuating them. Yet there was a fringe group who stated that notional value could become essentially a 100% loss in many circumstances. We have since found out that the latter opinion, though in the distinct minority for years, was the correct opinion. Today's situation with deflation vs inflation is an even more complicated scenario to predict. It's a lot more than just asset prices falling. Iceland is figuring that out now. Only a few months ago they had a very low CPI...not any more as it has broken abouve double digits. The UK will get to experience that soon as well. They will show us which way we're headed. >>
The banks gambled and lost. In a few years the stronger banks will
survive and continue on. Iceland for gosh sakes. This little itty bitty
country that had banks that aspired for great profits and got burnt
by wall street. Nothing has changed. Banks fail if they are ran by idiots.
<< <i>We've never had a time where great monetary stimulation didn't lead to rampant inflation. We've already inflated money supplies to levels totally unheard of in the past....and all in the space of 1-2 months. Double digit price inflation will co-exist with deflation. Gold has corrected back to the 200 day trend line. That's a moderate curve built over 7 years and a long ways from heading stratospheric. $300 of excess speculation was just blown off. No doubt the CB's are dumping any gold they can afford to at the problem. But this is only temporary and Asia will be more than happy to buy up any of the tons they have been dumping in vain. I believe gold will bounce back up as the dollar weakens. That could have started today. There can be no long term strength in a currency whose only merits is that most contracts are currently required to be settled in dollars and that it's not as worthless as all the others.
roadrunner >>
Who is to say how much money should be in circulation and in use?
We deal with inflation on a daily basis. Prices have risen since I was
young. What was once a dollar is now two dollars. What was once
a good salary of 25000 is now 50000.
From what I have read it is not the CBs dumping gold... it is hedge
funds.
As other countries currency weakens it makes the dollar look even
better reinforcing it.
Yes gold is different then plat. I cannot argue that. But! it will fair only
so much as the others do. Oil is dropping like a rock. Bad for gold.
Other currencies weaken, the dollar get better. Bad for gold.
So the only prayer left it seems is rampant inflation devaluing the
dollar and gold will double in price... yet only buy the same amount
of goods as today due to that inflation. That is your most hopeful
outcome for gold?
good grief. And it has to happen within the next 5-10 years for it
to have value as many gold owners are probably 50-60 years old.
Eventually they need the money to retire. It sure is not the youths
of america buying this metal (20-30 year olds).
I dont know what to say. Metals are going to bottom out soon but
I do not expect them to rise up from the ashes like Sinclair is talking
about. If he mentions Weimar germany one more time i will puke.
As always you make for an interesting read roadrunner and i thank
you for giving me a different outlook on things. I always consider
what you say!
ME! But seriously, this is apples and oranges. The $600 level in 1979 came in the last few months of the bull market. My contention is that we're going through a killer 25-40% correction very similar to 1974-1975 that occurs years before the final blowout in gold. Note that that was a severe recession (deflation) followed with moderate money pumping that reared right back within 12 months to set the stage for a massive 3 years of inflation from 1977-1979 (sound familar?). Right now we're still on the short side of the gold curve...imho. If you believe the gold bull is over, then I understand how you arrive at the $600 reference. I just don't agree with it.
The dollar won't go to zero anytime soon, if ever. But it would certainly become something different (amero?) if it loses more than half of it's current value. Losing 30-40% of it's current value is certainly possible....and more than enough to propel gold to $1500 alone....without any speculation added in. But that's not to say the USD still can't strengthen further before finally succumbing to it's previous longer term trend. Cohodk likes USDX of 104. I've at least factored in the possibility. It won't get there w/o 2 more legs.
The banks gambled and lost. In a few years the stronger banks will survive
They gambled like drunken fools...all of them. They are all insolvent even if they won't open the books to show it: JPM, ING, UBS, Citi, MS, HSBC, GS, Deutsche, ..every last one of the top 20 or 30 banks. All bankrupt. It will come out. What does "less bankrupt" mean?
Who is to say how much money should be in circulation and in use?
Well certainly it has been shown that the banks, FED, Treasury, and Congress should not be in charge of this decision. Incompetence and thievery. You must be a lot younger than me, but the $25,000 that my dad took home in the early 1970's is like $150K today. The costs of my college education are 10X higher today than they were when I went. Maybe the price of tuna fish is 2X higher over the past 20 years. But those kinds of things are in the minority. A good coin from the mid-70's is worth 50X that amount today. Once you start applying prices to harder assets, things go haywire. I don't buy the 2X number you refer too...except for appliances and tuna fish.
From what I have read it is not the CBs dumping gold... it is hedge
funds.
The hedge funds are dumping paper gold. I can assure you that the CB's or their henchman via ETF's or other sources, are dumping physical for immediate effects.
Oil is dropping like a rock. Bad for gold.
You mean it WAS dropping like a rock. Probably all done dropping and ready to rebound for the winter season. Good for gold. Gold has fallen 12% this year....oil has fallen 45%....good for gold. They weren't coupled in that scenario. The dollar and yen have had a nice run while unwinding contracts and carry trades. In the end, all currencies will lose value to gold. Note that besides the dollar and yen, other world currencies are near all time high levels vs gold. What happens when the immediate need for dollars and yen falls as contracts are settled? They will lose ground too, and quickly as everyone ducks and heads for something that will hold value. That means hard assets and hitting stores and shops for key living items.
the only prayer left it seems is rampant inflation devaluing the
dollar and gold will double in price... yet only buy the same amount
of goods as today due to that inflation. That is your most hopeful
outcome for gold?
That's the least promising outcome for gold. Gold will be enhanced by speculation as well. It will go a lot further than sheer fundamentals tell it to. Should either outcome be likely, should we all sit here and invest in the Dow or Dollar as patriotic Americans to support our thieving elected officials and bankers? Look back to the 2001-early 2008 experience where gold went up multiples of the CPI and routine baskets of goods. It did the same thing in the 1970's and 1930's. It will outpace the price increases of goods in general, though not of all commodities as oil has shown.
good grief. And it has to happen within the next 5-10 years for it
to have value as many gold owners are probably 50-60 years old.
Eventually they need the money to retire. It sure is not the youths
of america buying this metal (20-30 year olds).
The youths of America are screwed for a while, plain and simple. But at least they have decades to work through the mess we left them. Yes, this mess will mostly take care of itself in 5-10 years. Most of it within 5 years. Puke not withstanding, Sinclair has called the major financial moves in this economy to a TEE! Yeah, his gold calls have not been 100%. But he predicted all the major points to $1000 like clockwork, derivatives, bank failures, etc. Sorry if the didn't tell you to sell but he never has. He gave everyone that read him the tools to know when to get out. JS (nor anyone else!) didn't see the extent to which the PTB would go to save their fortunes, much of it illegal and unprecedented I might add. The fact that JS is still calling for other specific "bad" things to occur within the economy should only be real cause for concern. It matters little where gold goes. His track record on the economic front has been dead on....regardless of how many times he states Weimar or "this is it." Just hope that at some point he starts to say "that was it!"
Thanks for the rebuttal. It has made me more cautious, esp on what the potential downsides to gold is. But I also made my decision on how to play this out a long time ago.
roadrunner