I live in Jersey and last nite i filled up my tank with regular and paid $3.82 cents a gallon. Oops,this thread is about gold so i am not buying the new Gold Buffs from the Mint until i can get them cheaper in the after market.
The central banks seem to be engaging in a concerted effort to prop up the dollar, and the hedgies seem to be scurrying like rats away from all hard assets and commodities....
<< <i>True gold is a long term investment but it also takes a lot of $$$ to make a few! I got rid of all mine to buy the reverse 07's and have made way more than if I kept the gold. I don't care if it goes to $1500' >>
Some of us collect coins Others flip them. I don't care if it drops to $50.
P.S. I just saved 15% by switching to gecko >>
Ha,ha I just beat you and switched to Progressive and saved 20% and got a shiny new name tag.
<< <i>Look out belooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow!!!!!!
Looks more like a ski slope now!!!!!
>>
Funny, it is exactly one month after this thread started, and even though the last few days have been down, it is STILL 15 bucks more than when the thread started.
I hate to pick on anybody but to saySummers always down, where were you this spring it went over a grand. This patterns been going on for years now is quite simply foolish. If this was the pattern everyone could make untold of riches--merely buy in the summer, when it's always down and then sell in the winter when it must always be up. I presume one could then take off the next 6 months to enjoy some of the immense riches that are so easy to obtain.
In truth, the price of assets, such as gold, closely approximate random walks, that is, at any given moment there is almost exactly a 50% chance of the price rising and a 50% chance of the price falling. (Actually there should be a very slightly greater chance of an upward change than a downward change because over the long haul asset prices, such as gold, tend to rise.) There are no big predictable trends, either up or down. There are no predictable patterns. Gold may fall Monday through Friday this week but on Monday such a fall simply was not predictable. Similarly gold may rise Monday through Friday this week but on Monday such a rise simply was not predictable. Anyone who says prices are predictable over any reasonable interval of time should be incredibly, obscenely rich. If they are not, they are merely saying what they wish were the case not what actually is the case.
If this was the pattern everyone could make untold of riches--merely buy in the summer, when it's always down and then sell in the winter when it must always be up. I presume one could then take off the next 6 months to enjoy some of the immense riches that are so easy to obtain.
Over the past several years, gold has indeed followed a generally seasonal pattern of down in the summer and up in Aug-Sept. into late winter or early spring. Anyone following this pattern would have done quite well. And I suspect many hedge funds did just that. There are seasonal gold buying seasons around the world that also tie into this. Another pattern well repeated over the past 5-7 years is that NY Comex morning gold prices are down 2% or so lower than a similar period on other metal exchanges. It's more than coincidence considering the PPT is often working from 9:30-11:00 am each day. Odd that London and Tokyo show no such preference for morning drops like the NY Comex.
To say that there are not trends to the metals would also be to say that there are no 10 year cycle effects as well as longer ones. Unfortunately analysis shows decisive trends over many decades that tend to repeat. Such analysis shows several long term cycles all coming to a bottom around 2010-2012. Coincidence? I don't expect gold to be one of the bottoming trends. Long term market cycles trending for years are anything but random. The herding mentality as well as man's fear and greed ensure that such cycles follow non-random paths.
Well now you and I get to debate the price of gold! I don't doubt that there might be a few years in which gold is down in the summer and up in the winter...in the exact same way that I don't doubt that a fair coin flipped 10 times might come up heads all 10 times. (It will do so about 1 out of 1,000 times.) But to say that such a pattern is always the case is simply not true. And to say that it has been going on for a lot of years is almost surely not true. For instance, because for any given summer the odds of gold being down is 50%, the probability of gold being being down for 10 summers in a row is ... 1 out of 1,000.
I also have severe doubts that there is anything predictable about the price of gold being lower on the NY Comex than on other exchanges at the same time. If it was, then assuming that the costs of large transactions are less than 2% which seems reasonable to me, then riskless arbitrage would force the prices back together. If the transactions costs were more than 2%, then the difference could persist. But, frankly I don't know the transactions costs of large (or small) transactions.
One last comment: I challenge anyone to present a statistical analysis that shows there are cycles in the prices of assets. By a statistical analysis I don't mean an eyeball, "look at the pretty cycles I can draw in the data", or a quasi-statistical analysis, "look for these 8 years it was up and then for the next 6 it was down and then for the next 9 years it was up and then for the next 7 years it was down, etc." I mean something that actually statistically tests for the presence of cycles. Without such evidence I think assertions about cycles in the prices of assets should be given about the same credence as Bigfoot sightings.
roadrunner, I do have one question: What does "PPT" stand for? I keep trying to guess from the context but I can't come up with it.
Yeah, roadrunner and I do have our disagrements. But he is one heck of good numismatist. I think he and I are unlikely to agree about a lot of issues but I sure will listen to his comments about coins. I wish I had handled 1/2 of the coins he has. And I wish I had 1/2 the coin market smarts he has.
Yeah, roadrunner and I do have our disagrements. But he is one heck of good numismatist. I think he and I are unlikely to agree about a lot of issues but I sure will listen to his comments about coins. I wish I had handled 1/2 of the coins he has. And I wish I had 1/2 the coin market smarts he has. >>
I wish our politicians would make statements like yours, Mark!!!!!!
Well now you and I get to debate the price of gold! I don't doubt that there might be a few years in which gold is down in the summer and up in the winter...in the exact same way that I don't doubt that a fair coin flipped 10 times might come up heads all 10 times. (It will do so about 1 out of 1,000 times.) But to say that such a pattern is always the case is simply not true. And to say that it has been going on for a lot of years is almost surely not true. For instance, because for any given summer the odds of gold being down is 50%, the probability of gold being being down for 10 summers in a row is ... 1 out of 1,000.
I also have severe doubts that there is anything predictable about the price of gold being lower on the NY Comex than on other exchanges at the same time. If it was, then assuming that the costs of large transactions are less than 2% which seems reasonable to me, then riskless arbitrage would force the prices back together. If the transactions costs were more than 2%, then the difference could persist. But, frankly I don't know the transactions costs of large (or small) transactions.
One last comment: I challenge anyone to present a statistical analysis that shows there are cycles in the prices of assets. By a statistical analysis I don't mean an eyeball, "look at the pretty cycles I can draw in the data", or a quasi-statistical analysis, "look for these 8 years it was up and then for the next 6 it was down and then for the next 9 years it was up and then for the next 7 years it was down, etc." I mean something that actually statistically tests for the presence of cycles. Without such evidence I think assertions about cycles in the prices of assets should be given about the same credence as Bigfoot sightings.
roadrunner, I do have one question: What does "PPT" stand for? I keep trying to guess from the context but I can't come up with it. >>
PPT= plunge protection team
Yale Hirsh devoted much of his life to studying stock market calendar cycles. Now his son continues on. They publish a book each year, "Stock Trader's Almanac." It is a rigorous study of various cycles, mostly relating to the stock market. Like many stock market anomalies, once the information is widely known, people jump the cycle and it often fades away. Some of the more complex cycles do seem to give a worthwhile edge. It is worthwhile reading for anyone interested in the subject and is available at any book selling site.
For many years, there have been home software packages for analyzing cycles, and many an armchair punter devoted hours to different kinds of strategies. I liken the pursuit of formulas to the old medieval alchemists looking for a formula to turn lead into gold. Simple calendar cycles are among the easiest to spot, and in my opinion, among the weakest and least reliable. I still look at them with the thought that it is better to have the wind at my back than in my face.
With today's fast paced internet trading world and with quite a few investors having access to this 'cycle' theory of trading, sometimes this becomes a self fulfilled prophecy.
By this I mean, with so many investors paying attention to these cycles, they trade according to the cycles (example: sell gold in the summer and buy in the Fall) thereby causing them to happen again.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
For instance, because for any given summer the odds of gold being down is 50%, the probability of gold being being down for 10 summers in a row is ... 1 out of 1,000.
The odds of the am NY Comex gold pricing trending 1-2% lower on average than the world's other gold markets over the past 5-10 years runs with odds much higher than 1000 to 1. I think it was tabulated as being a million to 1 shot or higher. In other words the market is being rigged to beat down the pog shortly after the NY open. That chart has been printed quite often on various gold sites and here as well. If you investigate it you will find out the same thing. Next time I see someone posting that chart I will link it here.
Stock or trading markets are not random statistical events simply because you have flawed human beings with biases playing in them. Why do 90% of traders lose money? Or why do 90% of J6P stock investors tend to lose money? A random statistical sampling would say that the split should be 50/50...but we both know it's anything but that. The stock market is rigged against J6P and his 401K by Wall Street, the FED, PPT, traders, investors, hedge funds, etc, etc. It's not too far removed from Ponzi. The stock market is not a 50/50 random event market. If it was, Wall Street would go find something else to do. PPT is the US Treasury's working group on markets which is headed by the Sectary of the Treasury. Formally called the Exchange Stabilization Fund and created by Reagan back around 1987 following the the Oct. 1987 crash (ie more rapid-fire manipulation was needed to "control" markets).
Humans are trained through centuries of evolution to look for patterns, and we manage to find them even when they are not present, myself included. But markets are made up of buyers and sellers, and those opposing forces result in a random tug of war. Markets do trend up over time, as Mark pointed out, and that's why Wall Street doesn't "find something else to do". That's also why it makes sense to stay in the game long term. But day to day or season to season, they are impossible to predict, and that's why trading is a losing game for most.
Now some have made a nice living selling "systems" that promise the opposite. The old adage is true - if someone had a secret system to profit from stocks or gold, they wouldn't be selling it. Charting may be fascinating, but it's the equivalent of reading tea leaves or seeing the images of famous people on pieces of toast IMO.
I am far from a gold expert, but I do remember something about prices and trends. For most of the 80's through 90's and up until a few years ago, gold wasn't doing much at all. That's a dreadfully looooooooong period of time. If I hear one more comment about "dynamics being different then", I'm going to spit up!
The US Dollar Index which once was in the 120's, and sank below 72 more recently, has been rising. Up strongly today (almost 76). That's not necessarily due to John Snow's support of a "strong" Dollar, because weakness of the Euro is contributing to that. But highly leveraged commodities speculators see that trend, and react. You can't expect PM prices to go up on a rising Dollar index.
But sit tight (or buy if so inclined) because the inevitable result of constant inflation, courtesy of Fed handouts to prop up the markets will be higher PM prices, long-term.
Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.
<< <i>The US Dollar Index which once was in the 120's, and sank below 72 more recently, has been rising. Up strongly today (almost 76). That's not necessarily due to John Snow's support of a "strong" Dollar, because weakness of the Euro is contributing to that. But highly leveraged commodities speculators see that trend, and react. You can't expect PM prices to go up on a rising Dollar index.
But sit tight (or buy if so inclined) because the inevitable result of constant inflation, courtesy of Fed handouts to prop up the markets will be higher PM prices, long-term. >>
Absolutely spot on.
This is the major trend.
Don't get fooled my these 'head fakes' when the US dollar has a small 3 week gain and all commodities go down in price for a little while.
Keep your eye on the major trend!! - INFLATION!!
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
<< <i>The US Dollar Index which once was in the 120's, and sank below 72 more recently, has been rising. Up strongly today (almost 76). That's not necessarily due to John Snow's support of a "strong" Dollar, because weakness of the Euro is contributing to that. But highly leveraged commodities speculators see that trend, and react. You can't expect PM prices to go up on a rising Dollar index. >>
Agreed all the way around. I've said for months that the Euro is facing many of the same pressures as the dollar looking to the future, and that the Euro was severely overvalued as the "currency of choice" for those fleeing the dollar.
And now I think it's not so much that the dollar is *strong* per se but that for now the weakness may have been overdone, the Euro's strength was also overdone and we are returning to a more appropriate valuation between them. Also, it seems that many big players who were betting against the dollar are unwinding their positions and perhaps covering their short positions on the dollar, which also contribute to the bounce off of the lowest levels. In any event we're seeing the (scarily) power of the major institutions, hedge funds and pension funds to move markets...up AND down.
I wouldn't be surprised to see stability at around the 1.45 USD/EUR level, but I'm hardly an expert on the matter. That might mean gold in the $750-800 range and oil at around $90 near their respective bottoms. But these are just shorter-term trends. In the long term I like the fundamentals of hedges against fiat currency, and weakness could be opportunities to accumulate.
It's true that the dollar has been stronger lately, but it's only up about 7% off it's lows, and about 3% versus the Euro. Meanwhile, gold is down 15% and oil is down over 20% during the same time frame. That says that there's more at play than just a strengthening dollar.
A lot of commodities had been bid up to levels not supported by supply and demand, and a lot of the air is coming out of that balloon. As for the long term, who knows. I think commodity prices were depressed during the 80's and 90's, so the increases in this decade were justified. But they've had a 6 year run now. I don't know if this is a reversal of that trend or not, but until they find some level of support, I wouldn't want to be an owner right now.
It's all a shell game, in reality, since all currencies are based on faith in the governments that issue them, and nothing more. Throughout history, every such piece of paper, no matter how pretty, has eventually become worthless. Anyone believing the once Almighty Dollar will be an exception to that is in for a surprise, because it's been happening since 1913, and is accelerating.
<< <i>It's all a shell game, in reality, since all currencies are based on faith in the governments that issue them, and nothing more. Throughout history, every such piece of paper, no matter how pretty, has eventually become worthless. Anyone believing the once Almighty Dollar will be an exception to that is in for a surprise, because it's been happening since 1913, and is accelerating.
I am going to assume it is a known fact that the money supply had to increase early in US history to serve the needs of the country. At what point in time did we have enough money in the system to serve our needs and allow for growth?
One could argue that there was not enough even up to the late 20th century... One could argue that the money supply is finally at the point where we should now start managing it with a tighter rein?
Of course as you put more money into the system you get inflation but who here is only making 25 bucks a week still?
fc, you had my support until the last statement. My wife has her opinions on what I "make" a week. Based on my share, after her accounting method, I am considerably below your figure. Respectfully, John Curlis
The gummint's unfunded liabilities amount to about $175,000 per U.S. citizen and rising. I don't think that I'm getting a very good return on my tax dollars. And they keep giving it to foreign countries and mismanaged private banks. When does the middle class get to keep what it earns?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>It's all a shell game, in reality, since all currencies are based on faith in the governments that issue them, and nothing more. Throughout history, every such piece of paper, no matter how pretty, has eventually become worthless. Anyone believing the once Almighty Dollar will be an exception to that is in for a surprise, because it's been happening since 1913, and is accelerating.
Thanks that's a nice calculator. And of course is shows that similar goods cost more over time. But as fc pointed out, incomes rise as well. In fact, you can plug your salary into the calculator to see if you've exceeded inflation. And I would hope that most of us here have been able to "outrun" the cost of a loaf of bread. If you earn the same as you did 5, 10, or 20 years ago, it's time to take a serious look at what you do for a living, or how you do it. I know that those earning minimum wage have fallen behind, but they will struggle with or without inflation. And typically they move up the ladder with experience and/or education.
I would disagree with the statement that currencies become worthless. It just takes nominally more units of a currency to buy the same units of goods. The dollar cannot go to zero in value. And you're right, they are "based on faith in the governments that issue them". Unless you think the US is in the same condition as post-WWI Germany, I wouldn't lose any sleep.
<< <i>I would disagree with the statement that currencies become worthless. It just takes nominally more units of a currency to buy the same units of goods. The dollar cannot go to zero in value. And you're right, they are "based on faith in the governments that issue them". Unless you think the US is in the same condition as post-WWI Germany, I wouldn't lose any sleep. >>
I hope we never see the Dollar go to zero, but within my lifetime, it's down to somewhere between a nickel and a dime. My first car (a 1966 Mustang) cost me $2,450. You've got to add a zero to that to buy a 2008. Gasoline was 30-something cents. Add a zero. My first job was in a grocery store, and we used a rotating wheeled stamper to mark prices. There were two digits you could set, along with a cents symbol. No dollar sign.
The example of post-WWI Germany is an extreme one, and I don't see that happening any time soon here. But the US which in the 1950's was a creditor nation and manufactured goods for the rest of the world has gone to being a debtor nation, importing goods from around the world, and manufacturing very little. Again, within my lifetime. Our children and grandchildren don't face a very bright future, if this trend is not reversed.
Since our government is avoiding the issues, I don't see that it will be reversed, so to the extent that I can provide a cushion to help our daughter out, I'm holding on to my PM coins and bullion, no matter what the speculators do to short-term market prices.
Good deals with: goldman86 mkman123 Wingsrule wondercoin segoja Tccuga OKCC LindeDad and others.
<< <i>I would disagree with the statement that currencies become worthless. It just takes nominally more units of a currency to buy the same units of goods. The dollar cannot go to zero in value. And you're right, they are "based on faith in the governments that issue them". Unless you think the US is in the same condition as post-WWI Germany, I wouldn't lose any sleep. >>
I hope we never see the Dollar go to zero, but within my lifetime, it's down to somewhere between a nickel and a dime. My first car (a 1966 Mustang) cost me $2,450. You've got to add a zero to that to buy a 2008. Gasoline was 30-something cents. Add a zero. My first job was in a grocery store, and we used a rotating wheeled stamper to mark prices. There were two digits you could set, along with a cents symbol. No dollar sign.
The example of post-WWI Germany is an extreme one, and I don't see that happening any time soon here. But the US which in the 1950's was a creditor nation and manufactured goods for the rest of the world has gone to being a debtor nation, importing goods from around the world, and manufacturing very little. Again, within my lifetime. Our children and grandchildren don't face a very bright future, if this trend is not reversed.
Since our government is avoiding the issues, I don't see that it will be reversed, so to the extent that I can provide a cushion to help our daughter out, I'm holding on to my PM coins and bullion, no matter what the speculators do to short-term market prices. >>
But i think you are forgetting a key point in your analysis. Our lives, for the majority in my opinion, has improved. Now families have 2-3 cars, sometimes 2 houses (summer place), huge wardrobes of clothes, many knick knacks in the house, technological marvels like cell phones and internet, better health resources, longer life spans, etc.. the list is endless on how things have improved.
i think you are doing a "get off my lawn you darn kids, in my day" sorta thing.
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I'm waiting for some one to start a thread: When will Gold drop below $900 an oz or Plat drop below $1700 an oz.
<< <i>I'm waiting for some one to start a thread: When will Gold drop below $900 an oz or Plat drop below $1700 an oz >>
Done
<< <i>
<< <i>True gold is a long term investment but it also takes a lot of $$$ to make a few! I got rid of all mine to buy the reverse 07's and have made way more than if I kept the gold. I don't care if it goes to $1500' >>
Some of us collect coins
P.S. I just saved 15% by switching to gecko
Ha,ha I just beat you and switched to Progressive and saved 20% and got a shiny new name tag.
<< <i>I got gas for $3.67 yesterday! Talk about a bargain! >>
I bought lunch at Taco bell and got gas for $3.67 something don't seem right.
Looks more like a ski slope now!!!!!
<< <i>Look out belooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow!!!!!!
Looks more like a ski slope now!!!!!
Funny, it is exactly one month after this thread started, and even though the last few days have been down, it is STILL 15 bucks more than when the thread started.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>PM's have been trading in a range nothing new just waiting for a breakout this fall as usual. >>
Another "breakout" prediction? I'm still waiting for the Spring & Summer breakout.
<< <i>
<< <i>PM's have been trading in a range nothing new just waiting for a breakout this fall as usual. >>
Another "breakout" prediction? I'm still waiting for the Spring & Summer breakout.
Summers always down, where were you this spring it went over a grand. This patterns been going on for years now.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>PM's have been trading in a range nothing new just waiting for a breakout this fall as usual. >>
Another "breakout" prediction? I'm still waiting for the Spring & Summer breakout.
Summers always down, where were you this spring it went over a grand. This patterns been going on for years now. >>
Mmmm ... last time I checked...first day of Spring was 3/21 & Gold peaked on 3/13 & it's been on a roller coaster ride ever since.
<< <i>"I'll be back!!!"
<< <i>
<< <i>"I'll be back!!!"
>>
And back it is early.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>"I'll be back!!!"
>>
And back it is early.
Maybe Not!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>"I'll be back!!!"
>>
And back it is early.
Maybe Not!!!
Ask: $876.20...still falling!!!
In truth, the price of assets, such as gold, closely approximate random walks, that is, at any given moment there is almost exactly a 50% chance of the price rising and a 50% chance of the price falling. (Actually there should be a very slightly greater chance of an upward change than a downward change because over the long haul asset prices, such as gold, tend to rise.) There are no big predictable trends, either up or down. There are no predictable patterns. Gold may fall Monday through Friday this week but on Monday such a fall simply was not predictable. Similarly gold may rise Monday through Friday this week but on Monday such a rise simply was not predictable. Anyone who says prices are predictable over any reasonable interval of time should be incredibly, obscenely rich. If they are not, they are merely saying what they wish were the case not what actually is the case.
Over the past several years, gold has indeed followed a generally seasonal pattern of down in the summer and up in Aug-Sept. into late winter or early spring. Anyone following this pattern would have done quite well. And I suspect many hedge funds did just that.
There are seasonal gold buying seasons around the world that also tie into this. Another pattern well repeated over the past 5-7 years is that NY Comex morning gold prices are down 2% or so lower than a similar period on other metal exchanges. It's more than coincidence considering the PPT is often working from 9:30-11:00 am each day. Odd that London and Tokyo show no such preference for morning drops like the NY Comex.
To say that there are not trends to the metals would also be to say that there are no 10 year cycle effects as well as longer ones. Unfortunately analysis shows decisive trends over many decades that tend to repeat. Such analysis shows several long term cycles all coming to a bottom around 2010-2012. Coincidence? I don't expect gold to be one of the bottoming trends. Long term market cycles trending for years are anything but random. The herding mentality as well as man's fear and greed ensure that such cycles follow non-random paths.
roadrunner
Well now you and I get to debate the price of gold!
I also have severe doubts that there is anything predictable about the price of gold being lower on the NY Comex than on other exchanges at the same time. If it was, then assuming that the costs of large transactions are less than 2% which seems reasonable to me, then riskless arbitrage would force the prices back together. If the transactions costs were more than 2%, then the difference could persist. But, frankly I don't know the transactions costs of large (or small) transactions.
One last comment: I challenge anyone to present a statistical analysis that shows there are cycles in the prices of assets. By a statistical analysis I don't mean an eyeball, "look at the pretty cycles I can draw in the data", or a quasi-statistical analysis, "look for these 8 years it was up and then for the next 6 it was down and then for the next 9 years it was up and then for the next 7 years it was down, etc." I mean something that actually statistically tests for the presence of cycles. Without such evidence I think assertions about cycles in the prices of assets should be given about the same credence as Bigfoot sightings.
roadrunner, I do have one question: What does "PPT" stand for? I keep trying to guess from the context but I can't come up with it.
Behold, the POWER of TWO!
Yeah, roadrunner and I do have our disagrements.
<< <i>goldbully:
Yeah, roadrunner and I do have our disagrements.
I wish our politicians would make statements like yours, Mark!!!!!!
<< <i>roadrunner:
Well now you and I get to debate the price of gold!
I also have severe doubts that there is anything predictable about the price of gold being lower on the NY Comex than on other exchanges at the same time. If it was, then assuming that the costs of large transactions are less than 2% which seems reasonable to me, then riskless arbitrage would force the prices back together. If the transactions costs were more than 2%, then the difference could persist. But, frankly I don't know the transactions costs of large (or small) transactions.
One last comment: I challenge anyone to present a statistical analysis that shows there are cycles in the prices of assets. By a statistical analysis I don't mean an eyeball, "look at the pretty cycles I can draw in the data", or a quasi-statistical analysis, "look for these 8 years it was up and then for the next 6 it was down and then for the next 9 years it was up and then for the next 7 years it was down, etc." I mean something that actually statistically tests for the presence of cycles. Without such evidence I think assertions about cycles in the prices of assets should be given about the same credence as Bigfoot sightings.
roadrunner, I do have one question: What does "PPT" stand for? I keep trying to guess from the context but I can't come up with it. >>
PPT= plunge protection team
Yale Hirsh devoted much of his life to studying stock market calendar cycles. Now his son continues on. They publish a book each year, "Stock Trader's Almanac." It is a rigorous study of various cycles, mostly relating to the stock market. Like many stock market anomalies, once the information is widely known, people jump the cycle and it often fades away. Some of the more complex cycles do seem to give a worthwhile edge. It is worthwhile reading for anyone interested in the subject and is available at any book selling site.
For many years, there have been home software packages for analyzing cycles, and many an armchair punter devoted hours to different kinds of strategies. I liken the pursuit of formulas to the old medieval alchemists looking for a formula to turn lead into gold. Simple calendar cycles are among the easiest to spot, and in my opinion, among the weakest and least reliable. I still look at them with the thought that it is better to have the wind at my back than in my face.
With today's fast paced internet trading world and with quite a few investors having access to this 'cycle' theory of trading, sometimes this becomes a self fulfilled prophecy.
By this I mean, with so many investors paying attention to these cycles, they trade according to the cycles (example: sell gold in the summer and buy in the Fall) thereby causing them to happen again.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
The odds of the am NY Comex gold pricing trending 1-2% lower on average than the world's other gold markets over the past 5-10 years runs with odds much higher than 1000 to 1. I think it was tabulated as being a million to 1 shot or higher. In other words the market is being rigged to beat down the pog shortly after the NY open. That chart has been printed quite often on various gold sites and here as well.
If you investigate it you will find out the same thing. Next time I see someone posting that chart I will link it here.
Stock or trading markets are not random statistical events simply because you have flawed human beings with biases playing in them. Why do 90% of traders lose money? Or why do 90% of J6P stock investors tend to lose money? A random statistical sampling would say that the split should be 50/50...but we both know it's anything but that. The stock market is rigged against J6P and his 401K by Wall Street, the FED, PPT, traders, investors, hedge funds, etc, etc. It's not too far removed from Ponzi. The stock market is not a 50/50 random event market. If it was, Wall Street would go find something else to do. PPT is the US Treasury's working group on markets which is headed by the Sectary of the Treasury. Formally called the Exchange Stabilization Fund and created by Reagan back around 1987 following the the Oct. 1987 crash (ie more rapid-fire manipulation was needed to "control" markets).
roadrunner
Now some have made a nice living selling "systems" that promise the opposite. The old adage is true - if someone had a secret system to profit from stocks or gold, they wouldn't be selling it. Charting may be fascinating, but it's the equivalent of reading tea leaves or seeing the images of famous people on pieces of toast IMO.
For most of the 80's through 90's and up until a few years ago, gold wasn't doing much at all. That's a dreadfully looooooooong period of time. If I hear one more comment about "dynamics being different then", I'm going to spit up!
But sit tight (or buy if so inclined) because the inevitable result of constant inflation, courtesy of Fed handouts to prop up the markets will be higher PM prices, long-term.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
<< <i>The US Dollar Index which once was in the 120's, and sank below 72 more recently, has been rising. Up strongly today (almost 76). That's not necessarily due to John Snow's support of a "strong" Dollar, because weakness of the Euro is contributing to that. But highly leveraged commodities speculators see that trend, and react. You can't expect PM prices to go up on a rising Dollar index.
But sit tight (or buy if so inclined) because the inevitable result of constant inflation, courtesy of Fed handouts to prop up the markets will be higher PM prices, long-term. >>
Absolutely spot on.
This is the major trend.
Don't get fooled my these 'head fakes' when the US dollar has a small 3 week gain and all commodities go down in price for a little while.
Keep your eye on the major trend!! - INFLATION!!
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>The US Dollar Index which once was in the 120's, and sank below 72 more recently, has been rising. Up strongly today (almost 76). That's not necessarily due to John Snow's support of a "strong" Dollar, because weakness of the Euro is contributing to that. But highly leveraged commodities speculators see that trend, and react. You can't expect PM prices to go up on a rising Dollar index. >>
Agreed all the way around. I've said for months that the Euro is facing many of the same pressures as the dollar looking to the future, and that the Euro was severely overvalued as the "currency of choice" for those fleeing the dollar.
And now I think it's not so much that the dollar is *strong* per se but that for now the weakness may have been overdone, the Euro's strength was also overdone and we are returning to a more appropriate valuation between them. Also, it seems that many big players who were betting against the dollar are unwinding their positions and perhaps covering their short positions on the dollar, which also contribute to the bounce off of the lowest levels. In any event we're seeing the (scarily) power of the major institutions, hedge funds and pension funds to move markets...up AND down.
I wouldn't be surprised to see stability at around the 1.45 USD/EUR level, but I'm hardly an expert on the matter. That might mean gold in the $750-800 range and oil at around $90 near their respective bottoms. But these are just shorter-term trends. In the long term I like the fundamentals of hedges against fiat currency, and weakness could be opportunities to accumulate.
A lot of commodities had been bid up to levels not supported by supply and demand, and a lot of the air is coming out of that balloon. As for the long term, who knows. I think commodity prices were depressed during the 80's and 90's, so the increases in this decade were justified. But they've had a 6 year run now. I don't know if this is a reversal of that trend or not, but until they find some level of support, I wouldn't want to be an owner right now.
See for yourself.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
<< <i>It's all a shell game, in reality, since all currencies are based on faith in the governments that issue them, and nothing more. Throughout history, every such piece of paper, no matter how pretty, has eventually become worthless. Anyone believing the once Almighty Dollar will be an exception to that is in for a surprise, because it's been happening since 1913, and is accelerating.
See for yourself. >>
I am going to assume it is a known fact that the money supply had to increase early
in US history to serve the needs of the country. At what point in time did we have
enough money in the system to serve our needs and allow for growth?
One could argue that there was not enough even up to the late 20th century...
One could argue that the money supply is finally at the point where we should
now start managing it with a tighter rein?
Of course as you put more money into the system you get inflation but who here is
only making 25 bucks a week still?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>It's all a shell game, in reality, since all currencies are based on faith in the governments that issue them, and nothing more. Throughout history, every such piece of paper, no matter how pretty, has eventually become worthless. Anyone believing the once Almighty Dollar will be an exception to that is in for a surprise, because it's been happening since 1913, and is accelerating.
See for yourself. >>
Thanks that's a nice calculator. And of course is shows that similar goods cost more over time. But as fc pointed out, incomes rise as well. In fact, you can plug your salary into the calculator to see if you've exceeded inflation. And I would hope that most of us here have been able to "outrun" the cost of a loaf of bread. If you earn the same as you did 5, 10, or 20 years ago, it's time to take a serious look at what you do for a living, or how you do it. I know that those earning minimum wage have fallen behind, but they will struggle with or without inflation. And typically they move up the ladder with experience and/or education.
I would disagree with the statement that currencies become worthless. It just takes nominally more units of a currency to buy the same units of goods. The dollar cannot go to zero in value. And you're right, they are "based on faith in the governments that issue them". Unless you think the US is in the same condition as post-WWI Germany, I wouldn't lose any sleep.
<< <i>I would disagree with the statement that currencies become worthless. It just takes nominally more units of a currency to buy the same units of goods. The dollar cannot go to zero in value. And you're right, they are "based on faith in the governments that issue them". Unless you think the US is in the same condition as post-WWI Germany, I wouldn't lose any sleep. >>
I hope we never see the Dollar go to zero, but within my lifetime, it's down to somewhere between a nickel and a dime. My first car (a 1966 Mustang) cost me $2,450. You've got to add a zero to that to buy a 2008. Gasoline was 30-something cents. Add a zero. My first job was in a grocery store, and we used a rotating wheeled stamper to mark prices. There were two digits you could set, along with a cents symbol. No dollar sign.
The example of post-WWI Germany is an extreme one, and I don't see that happening any time soon here. But the US which in the 1950's was a creditor nation and manufactured goods for the rest of the world has gone to being a debtor nation, importing goods from around the world, and manufacturing very little. Again, within my lifetime. Our children and grandchildren don't face a very bright future, if this trend is not reversed.
Since our government is avoiding the issues, I don't see that it will be reversed, so to the extent that I can provide a cushion to help our daughter out, I'm holding on to my PM coins and bullion, no matter what the speculators do to short-term market prices.
my early American coins & currency: -- http://yankeedoodlecoins.com/
<< <i>
<< <i>I would disagree with the statement that currencies become worthless. It just takes nominally more units of a currency to buy the same units of goods. The dollar cannot go to zero in value. And you're right, they are "based on faith in the governments that issue them". Unless you think the US is in the same condition as post-WWI Germany, I wouldn't lose any sleep. >>
I hope we never see the Dollar go to zero, but within my lifetime, it's down to somewhere between a nickel and a dime. My first car (a 1966 Mustang) cost me $2,450. You've got to add a zero to that to buy a 2008. Gasoline was 30-something cents. Add a zero. My first job was in a grocery store, and we used a rotating wheeled stamper to mark prices. There were two digits you could set, along with a cents symbol. No dollar sign.
The example of post-WWI Germany is an extreme one, and I don't see that happening any time soon here. But the US which in the 1950's was a creditor nation and manufactured goods for the rest of the world has gone to being a debtor nation, importing goods from around the world, and manufacturing very little. Again, within my lifetime. Our children and grandchildren don't face a very bright future, if this trend is not reversed.
Since our government is avoiding the issues, I don't see that it will be reversed, so to the extent that I can provide a cushion to help our daughter out, I'm holding on to my PM coins and bullion, no matter what the speculators do to short-term market prices. >>
But i think you are forgetting a key point in your analysis. Our lives, for the majority in my opinion, has improved.
Now families have 2-3 cars, sometimes 2 houses (summer place), huge wardrobes of clothes, many knick knacks in the house,
technological marvels like cell phones and internet, better health resources, longer life spans, etc.. the list is endless on
how things have improved.
i think you are doing a "get off my lawn you darn kids, in my day" sorta thing.
Or the dollar's strength is the result of inflation?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear