The stats you quote here are all relative to the era in which the player played..1300 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs in 1983 would qualify as a HOF quality season. Especially when it was done with a 2-14 team that had Oliver Luck as their starting QB..lol...In 1981 he was top 5 in the league in rushing..That as well would qualify as a HOF season for a RB in any era. His 82 season was not dominant, but would be considered a good year, similar to Watt's rookie year.
Campbell clearly had 5 HOF quality seasons..He also played 2 full seasons (32 games) longer than Watt...Fortunately, the Hall of Fame voters also consider longevity as a criteria for election..Otherwise, we'd have every player who had a couple of monster seasons in the HOF, and we do not.
As shown above, there is no precedent for modern era defensive players with fewer than 119 games being elected as a modern candidate. Kenny Easley was a DPOY, who only played in 89 games..Not only was he never elected as a modern candidate, he was never a finalist OR a semifinalist...And what we are discussing here is if Watt was deserving of placement on the Future Modern Hall of Fame Players set. The set definition is:
"The players on this list are all widely considered to be likely or definite future Hall of Fame inductees."
So while the voters have spoken and Watt was added, it is my opinion, and realistically the opinion of Hall of Fame voters of the past 50+ years that defensive players with less than 119 games played are NOT likely or definite HOFers..Watt is a maybe/maybe not with 83 games played...One more full season and 99 games, he's a bit closer..2 more full seasons and 115 games, THEN I think he more closely meets the criteria of likely to definite HOFer..
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
No defensive players since 1960 has been elected as a modern candidate with fewer than 119 games played. Honestly, that's nuff said.
Most of the borderline guys, specifically in recent years, came via Senior Elections.
Again, we are talking PSA set worthiness...And using the set explanation of likely to definite HOFer, I simply don't understand the need to add guys prematurely. At the very least lets see 100 games for the guy before anointing him as a likely to definite HOFer when he clearly hasn't played long enough yet.
As far as "dominant" goes I just think we define that differently. For me a HOF quality season=dominance and once I realized that definition was was different for you, I adjusted my wording. Just as you mention here, there are plenty of players in the HOF who were not DOMINANT..And plenty of players who had a couple of dominant seasons but not enough of them to reach the HOF.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I will concede that we are not far off on that topic or the Watt topic as well. I just think the likelihood he will get in eventually even if he never plays another snap is strong with the likes of Fred Dean, Rickey Jackson, Andre Tippett in who all though all were great, none came close to putting on the run that Watt has. I would vote him in the set just because I say he has a better than 50/50 chance. Did I request him? No. Would I have waited to request him? Yes. Still not as dumb as putting Patrick Willis up for vote. I think we are splitting hairs when it comes to longevity when you show a clear dominance. Also I am not ready to vote on Cam, Zeke, or Dak either, lol.
If/When Terrell Davis and/or Tony Boselli get elected (and BTW Boselli isn't even on the Future HOF Players set and he's been in the top 25 two years now) get elected Watt's odds will improve. Both were dominant, had HOF quality seasons, were the best at their position etc for a short time and both played less than 100 games in the modern era..So let's see those guys go in FIRST and then you look at add Watt rather than prematurely adding.
Just my opinion of course.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Unlcear how Steve Smith makes the HOF in front of Andre Johnson...I don't think either is on the level of being LIKELY HOFers..Both will get a look, but Johnson and Smith have very comparable numbers and resumes..If I were choosing one, I think Andre Johnson was more dominant.
I can buy Jason Peters on the set. Outside of Joe Thomas, he's been the best OT in football the past 10 years. While not a lock, I'd consider Peters having a little better than 50/50 shot at election.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I agree that Peters gets in. One of the best tackles of the last decade. Probably would be a great All-Decade Team candidate if his career didn't straddle two decades. I think there are about 40 nine time Pro Bowlers and of those only nine or ten aren't in the Hall. Most of those are locks like Reed, Peppers, Lynch, Faneca, Ware, Brees, and Dawkins. Assuming Peters gets in someday, which RC would you consider for this set? 2004 Leaf R&S #108 or 2004 Bowman #232?
Boldin, Smith Sr., Johnson are all likely to finish with very similar numbers. Boldin could separate himself a bit if he plays another year. Johnson has the most Pro Bowl appearances, which would suggest he was the more dominant player as Jasp indicated. Boldin has a SB ring.
Agree on the purge...What I've always suggested was if a player lasts 5 years as a candidate, and never makes the top 25 semifinalists, he is no longer a likely HOFer. I brought these up back when we used to vote for new additions but none of them every received enough votes for removal.
This would apply to the following:
LEROY BUTLER- HOF eligible for 11 years, never been top 25
GARY ANDERSON- HOF eligible for 8 years, never been top 25
JIMMY SMITH- HOF eligible for 7 years, never been top 25
RUBEN BROWN- HOF eligible for 5 years, never been top 25
Others getting close:
ZACH THOMAS- 4 years
JASON ELAM-3 years
We also have others who HAVE made the top 25 in the past 5 years, or even been a FINALIST who aren't even on the set.
JOE JACOBY- 7 time semifinalist, 1 time Finalist
KARL MECHLENBERG- 6 time semifinalist
TY LAW- 3 time semifinalist
MIKE KENN- 3 time semifinalist
TONY BOSELLI- 2 time semifinalist
DARREN WOODSON- 2 time semifinalist
CLAY MATTHEWS- 2 time semifinalist
CHRIS HINTON- 1 time semifinalist
SAM MILLS- 1 time semifinalist
STEVE WIESNIEWSKI- 1 time semifinalist
Its discrepancies like these which somewhat invalidate the set IMO. Obviously guys who are consistently getting more HOF votes from HOF voters are missing, while others not getting the votes remain. Illogical really
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Final 16
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jason Taylor
Brian Dawkins
Morten Andersen
Tony Boselli
Isaac Bruce
Don Coryell
Terrell Davis
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Ty Law
John Lynch
Kevin Mawae
Terrell Owens
Kurt Warner
Kenny Easley
I'm all for cleaning this up. I agree with voting to remove Jimmy Smith, Gary Anderson, Butler, and Brown (that one stings). I'd add Elam in there as well. I think Morton Andersen gets in and we won't see another kicker until Vinatieri. Not so quick to pull Holt or Bruce, particularly now that Bruce made the finalist list.
Jasp could probably shed some light on the likelihood of someone getting inducted who makes the finalist list. I like all of his recommended suggestions, particularly Jacoby, Boselli, Law, and Mecklenburg.
The last Modern Era player to make the final 15 and NOT get elected to the HOF was Bob Kuechenberg in 2009.
There are a few outliers...
Roger Craig was a finalist in 2010, and may not get in (2018 his last shot)
Jimmy Johnson was a finalist in 2015 but not since
Steve At- water and Ed James were both finalists last year, but didn't make it this go round
For the most part, it seems that if you make the finalists early in your candidacy its almost guaranteed they will gain election.
Joe Jacoby didn't make the finals until very late in his candidacy (2018 his last year) but got all the way to the final 10 last year and is again a finalist this year. His odds would seem to be very high if not this year, then next.
Tony Boselli is a finalist in his 5th year of eligibility, it would seem his HOF odds are better than 50/50 and I personally would consider him as a likely HOFer at some point.
Ty Law, finalist in his 3rd year of eligibility, would seem near certainly to get in at some point...He has 17 years of eligibility left, is he really going to fall off the map and/or get so bypassed? Not a ton of CBs coming eligible who are better. Champ Bailey 2019, Charles Woodson 2021.
Karl Mechlenberg a but more iffy..His last year of eligibility is 2019 and while he's been consistently in the top 25, he has yet to make the top 15. That being said, he has still gotten far more HOF support from the voters than Butler, Gary Anderson, Jimmy Smith and Ruben Brown over a large sample size (5+ years)
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
With the Class of 2017 HOF Finalists announced, updating my odds for each of being elected this year.
LaDanian Tomlinson-100%..True 1st ballot lock, took some of Ed James support from last year.
Terrell Owens-90%...Voters made their point last year by ensuring Marvin Harrison went in first...Be shocked if he's kept out again
Kurt Warner-85%...Top QB, made the cut to 10 last year..Barring something crazy, pretty good odds for Kurt in a weak class
John Lynch-70%...At least one defensive player will get in, Lynch was the top defender not elected last year
Don Coryell-60%...Coryell would make a ton of sense going in with Tomlinson, making next years HOF game and induction Charger heavy
Terrell Davis-40%..Will they put 2 RBs in the same class? They'd likely have to bump TO or Warner..Could happen, but odds not great
Joe Jacoby-40%...Jacoby is nearing his final year of eligibility (2018)..Made the cut to 10 last year, and returns as the top OL, could easily bump Coryell from a spot, but my money would be on Jacoby Class of 2018
Alan Faneca-30%..Faneca will go in fairly soon, but he would need to jump over Jacoby and then bump votes from Coryell
Jason Taylor-25%...The top DL on the board, its tough to predict where the voters will slot him. He didn't have a 1st ballot career IMO, so be pretty surprised if he were able to get more votes than Lynch or Coryell in year 1
Brian Dawkins.-20%...Good sign to make the top 15 in Year 1...Was he better than Lynch? Personally I think so...But with Lynch getting so close in recent years, I think theyput Lynch in before Dawkins and no way they put a 3rd Safety in (Easley and Lynch being highly likely)
Morten Andersen-20%...Could be a longshot candidate, the only other non-offense or defensive candidate (Coryell the other), could conceivably bump Coryell but the recent voting has not hinted towards that
Ty Law-10%..First time as a finalist, and the only Patriot and CB being discussed...If there were a longshot shocker this year, this would be it
Tony Boselli-5%...Dont see him being able to jump Jacoby and Terrell Davis (low games played comparison)...Once TD gets in, the path will get easier for Boselli
Isaac Bruce-1%...How would he go in before T.O.? Would take something crazy to happen in the meeting
Kevin Mawae-1%...Well behind Alan Faneca on the interior line, as well as Jacoby on the overall OL...Good sign to make the top 15 so early in his eligibility, but he's got a couple of more years to wait.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Here is some trivia for you. Who retired as the player with most receptions and touchdowns in league history and never has made it to the finalist vote for the HOF? He also finished 12th in TD's and 16th in average per reception. Guy had a great career but has gotten no love from the voters. Simply sad.
Welcome back, Dave! Let's get the band back together. Lol.
Good question, FavreFan. Since Don Hutson retired in 1945 with 99 TDs, that eliminates anyone who retired after him. I'm stumped.
"My father would womanize, he would drink. He would make outrageous claims like he invented the question mark. Sometimes he would accuse chestnuts of being lazy. The sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament. Our childhood was typical. Summers in Rangoon, luge lessons. In the spring we'd make meat helmets. When we were insolent we were placed in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds - pretty standard really."
So which would be considered as the rookie cards for Law, Boselli, and Woodson?
I think you guys are undervaluing Steve Smith.
My guess for the unloved WR, I'll go with Bill Howton
The rookie cards for Charles Woodson is definately the 1998 SP Authentic card #23. The Ty Law and Tony Boselli card in teh registry in other sets are the 1995 SP cards, 174 and 147 respectively.
At one point in the distant past a player was mentioned and then proposed for a set.
We all voted. Either Andy or Jason kept track on the boards for all to see.
If a player was passed with a majority vote then a discussion of possible cards was mentioned and discussed.
Then another vote. I like the old days.
If Warner was chosen in those days, then the above was how it was done.
Nowadays a collector just brings up a player and card and goes directly to psa with it
Value of the card at the time has a major influence. Maybe the Warner card was the best at the time.
On another subject..........Eli Manning.
The more I watch him the more I think of his as an average at the very best QB. WE want his on the same pedestal as Aaron Rodgers????? rattle Eli's cage ...he's done. Aaron can inspire a team and control it's outcome.
When that discussion of removing future HOF players comes around I vote Eli off.
Collecting PSA... FB,BK,HK,and BB HOF RC sets 1948-76 Topps FB Sets FB & BB HOF Player sets 1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
@jay0791 said:
At one point in the distant past a player was mentioned and then proposed for a set.
We all voted. Either Andy or Jason kept track on the boards for all to see.
If a player was passed with a majority vote then a discussion of possible cards was mentioned and discussed.
Then another vote. I like the old days.
If Warner was chosen in those days, then the above was how it was done.
Nowadays a collector just brings up a player and card and goes directly to psa with it
Value of the card at the time has a major influence. Maybe the Warner card was the best at the time.
On another subject..........Eli Manning.
The more I watch him the more I think of his as an average at the very best QB. WE want his on the same pedestal as Aaron Rodgers????? rattle Eli's cage ...he's done. Aaron can inspire a team and control it's outcome.
When that discussion of removing future HOF players comes around I vote Eli off.
Eli is a prime example of anointing guys too soon (see JJ Watt and Calvin Johnson)..In the rush to get new cards added every year, it seems like whoever is making the requests is simply throwing out the hot guy of recent NFL memory..Instead of guys who are actually getting close to election (Joe Jacoby???)...Eli was added right after 2nd SB win...I think he still falls in the "likely" HOFer category, but I wouldn't say he's a lock..If he retired today, he would be one of those guys who gets in on his 10th try or so, but likely does get in for his body of work...Aaron Rodgers is easily the better QB, but he is still assembling his body of work...He's already on the set, but if he also retired today and he and Eli came up on the same ballot 5 years from now, I have no idea who gets more votes...But I'd bet that it would be pretty close..
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
@FavreFan1971 said:
Here is some trivia for you. Who retired as the player with most receptions and touchdowns in league history and never has made it to the finalist vote for the HOF? He also finished 12th in TD's and 16th in average per reception. Guy had a great career but has gotten no love from the voters. Simply sad.
Wow, I really thought others would have chimed in on this one. Billy Howton. He retired the leader of the two major categories and gets no love. Really thought he would have been a senior guy by now.
Eli has 2 Super Bowl MVPs, plays in New York beat Brady twice and his last name is Manning. He is a lock. I agree with what almost everyone says about him, but this is the NFL HOF where all the greats get in and some of the very goods, unless you play Safety. This is not the MLB HOF where only the elites get in
So Eli is first ballot? All LOCKS are...He will need to have Peyton level numbers or a 3rd SB ring to be first ballot IMO.
I've been to the Baseball HOF, an amazing place...But gotta tell ya, I see a ton of guys in the baseball HOF I wouldnt consider elite...I mean other than gamblers and steroid users, who exactly is the Baseball HOF excluding who is more deserving than any NFL HOFer? Just an argument I've heard more than a few times, and while I do agree that the NFL HOF has been a bit more inclusive over the years than maybe it should be, MLB HOF isn't any tougher to get in to...
As different as the voting processes are, when you look at who is in and who isn't, the only thing it changes is speed of entry.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
@jay0791 said:
At one point in the distant past a player was mentioned and then proposed for a set.
We all voted. Either Andy or Jason kept track on the boards for all to see.
If a player was passed with a majority vote then a discussion of possible cards was mentioned and discussed.
Then another vote. I like the old days.
If Warner was chosen in those days, then the above was how it was done.
Nowadays a collector just brings up a player and card and goes directly to psa with it
Value of the card at the time has a major influence. Maybe the Warner card was the best at the time.
On another subject..........Eli Manning.
The more I watch him the more I think of his as an average at the very best QB. WE want his on the same pedestal as Aaron Rodgers????? rattle Eli's cage ...he's done. Aaron can inspire a team and control it's outcome.
When that discussion of removing future HOF players comes around I vote Eli off.
I agree and I'm a Giants fan. He's streaky with bad mechanics. But he's a god to Giants fans. I still think Phil Simms was the best Giants QB.
@FavreFan1971 said:
Here is some trivia for you. Who retired as the player with most receptions and touchdowns in league history and never has made it to the finalist vote for the HOF? He also finished 12th in TD's and 16th in average per reception. Guy had a great career but has gotten no love from the voters. Simply sad.
Wow, I really thought others would have chimed in on this one. Billy Howton. He retired the leader of the two major categories and gets no love. Really thought he would have been a senior guy by now.
Thanks on the Darren Woodson info.
Any thoughts on the following AFL guys getting HOF consideration-----Sweeney, Schuh, Budde, Tyrer? I've retired my 1965 Topps set since I sold my Namath but will hold on to the remaining HOFers and players who might have a shot like Johnny Robinson.
Who threw for more than 58,000 yards and 369 TD's with another 82 rushing TD's but has never received serious consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
@TmbrWolf22 said:
Why is Reflections not being considered for Peters' RC?. Think it fits the numbering requirement. Does it not book as high as R&S?
I don't know the market for most modern issues, so I trust that those who do will select the correct card (ie, the most valuable one that fits the selection criteria).
"My father would womanize, he would drink. He would make outrageous claims like he invented the question mark. Sometimes he would accuse chestnuts of being lazy. The sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament. Our childhood was typical. Summers in Rangoon, luge lessons. In the spring we'd make meat helmets. When we were insolent we were placed in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds - pretty standard really."
@JMDVM said:
Thanks on the Darren Woodson info.
Any thoughts on the following AFL guys getting HOF consideration-----Sweeney, Schuh, Budde, Tyrer? I've retired my 1965 Topps set since I sold my Namath but will hold on to the remaining HOFers and players who might have a shot like Johnny Robinson.
Personally, I think they may be done with AFLers...Although Johnny Robinson and Otis Taylor have gotten support/votes in recent years...Haven't heard of any other AFL players being Senior Committee semifinalists the past 10 years or so..
Doesn't mean they have zero chance, as the Senior Committee members change, they find new old timers to support and/or push...Much like Easley who hadn't been getting any support from the senior Committee until the past year or so.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Who threw for more than 58,000 yards and 369 TD's with another 82 rushing TD's but has never received serious consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
At first I was thinking Testeverde but he could not run for 8.2 let alone 82 TD's. Flutie will never get a serious thought. Heck, barely anyone from the CFL gets any thoughts. There are some insane "yard" stats in their record books.
I agree with Rex the Eli Manning is a lock for the HOF. He is the only guy to beat Brady in a Super Bowl. And he did it TWICE! LOL. Does a lock mean he has to be a first ballot? No, not even close. We all know players that are locks but certain voters don't want them to be first ballot. I see this Eli for sure. I saw this with Ray Guy who I thought was a lock because of how he changed the game but it took forever to get him in.
Back to Eli, his two Super Bowl MVP's over Brady in those games solidifies his enshrinement.
@FavreFan1971 said:
I agree with Rex the Eli Manning is a lock for the HOF. He is the only guy to beat Brady in a Super Bowl. And he did it TWICE! LOL. Does a lock mean he has to be a first ballot? No, not even close. We all know players that are locks but certain voters don't want them to be first ballot. I see this Eli for sure. I saw this with Ray Guy who I thought was a lock because of how he changed the game but it took forever to get him in.
Back to Eli, his two Super Bowl MVP's over Brady in those games solidifies his enshrinement.
If this is the definition of a LOCK, then it means LOCK no longer refers to a definite or guaranteed HOFer...If this is the definition of a lock, which includes guys who couldn't get voted into the HOF during their modern candidacy, then there are a TON of "LOCKS" out there...Might be interesting to see everyone's top 50 list of future HOFers..Including all active and retired players not yet in the HOF...For me, Peyton would be #1 in that line, and not sure Eli would make my top 50...So for me, hes not a definite or guarantee to make the HOF, especially if his career closes out with a whimper...If he retired today, he has a tough road to get in...Other than beating Brady in 2 Super Bowls, his argument for induction gets quiet.
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
My top 50 HOF candidates, ranking all payers/coaches not in..Used the current Future Modern HOF set as the base, then added some who are missing. As expected, Eli didnt make my top 50 (he is actually #56) ...
1 1998 SP AUTHENTIC PEYTON MANNING
2 2000 SP AUTHENTIC TOM BRADY
3 BILL BELICHICK
4 1996 BOWMANS BEST RAY LEWIS
5 1997 SP AUTHENTIC TONY GONZALEZ
6 2001 TOPPS CHROME LADANIAN TOMLINSON ROOKIE REFRACTOR
7 1998 SP AUTHENTIC RANDY MOSS
8 1998 SP AUTHENTIC CHARLES WOODSON
9 2000 SP AUTHENTIC BRIAN URLACHER
10 2007 TOPPS CHROME JOE THOMAS
11 2002 TOPPS CHROME ED REED
12 2003 SP AUTHENTIC TROY POLAMALU
13 1999 SP AUTHENTIC CHAMP BAILEY
14 2001 TOPPS CHROME DREW BREES ROOKIE REFRACTOR
15 1996 SP TERRELL OWENS
16 2005 TOPPS CHROME DEMARCUS WARE
17 TOM COUGHLIN
18 1999 PACIFIC KURT WARNER
19 1993 SP JOHN LYNCH
20 DON CORYELL
21 2004 TOPPS CHROME BEN ROETHLISBERGER
22 1995 SP TERRELL DAVIS
23 JOE JACOBY
24 2002 UPPER DECK XL ALAN FANECA
25 2003 SP AUTHENTIC JASON WITTEN
26 1997 PACIFIC PHILADELPHIA ADAM VINATIERI
27 2002 TOPPS CHROME JULIUS PEPPERS
28 1997 SP AUTHENTIC JASON TAYLOR
29 1996 FINEST BRIAN DAWKINS
30 2003 LEAF R & S ANTONIO GATES
31 2003 TOPPS CHROME KEVIN WILLIAMS
32 2001 TOPPS CHROME RICHARD SEYMOUR ROOKIE REFRACTOR
33 1984 TOPPS MORTEN ANDERSEN
34 2004 TOPPS CHROME LARRY FITZGERALD
35 2007 TOPPS CHROME ADRIAN PETERSON
36 TY LAW
37 TONY BOSELLI
38 1994 BOWMAN ISAAC BRUCE
39 1994 BOWMAN KEVIN MAWAE
40 2001 PACIFIC CROWN ROYALE STEVE HUTCHINSON
41 2002 TOPPS CHROME DWIGHT FREENEY
42 1998 LEAF ROOKIES & STARS HINES WARD
43 1999 SP AUTHENTIC EDGERRIN JAMES
44 1984 TOPPS ROGER CRAIG
45 2007 TOPPS CHROME DARRELLE REVIS
46 2004 SP AUTHENTIC JARED ALLEN
47 1989 SCORE STEVE ATWATER
48 ANDRE JOHNSON
49 STEVE SMITH
50 1999 SP AUTHENTIC TORRY HOLT
I'm here to question, not to inspire or build up. To live how I want, as I see fit, according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
My definition of lock is what the voters will do. My personal opinion is not included. If it were LeRoy Butler would be my #1 ;-) LOL. I see the voters voting Eli Manning ahead of a decent portion of your list. Why? Because he is from New York. Because he won two Super Bowl MVP's. Because he beat the best QB in the history of the NFL in the Super Bowl (my opinion is Montana but the voters love Brady). TWICE LOL. Lastly, because he is a MANNING. I would bet Archie has greased somebody(s), somewhere to make this happen. We all know he ran their lives up to and after the draft and knows how to influence.
In my opinion, Manning will voted in before the following from your list.
Steve Smith
Andre Johnson
Steve Atwater
Dwight Freeney
Antonio Gates
Revis
Ward
Boselli
I am not saying all from you list will get voted in but I am saying Manning will get voted in before they get voted in.
Comments
The stats you quote here are all relative to the era in which the player played..1300 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs in 1983 would qualify as a HOF quality season. Especially when it was done with a 2-14 team that had Oliver Luck as their starting QB..lol...In 1981 he was top 5 in the league in rushing..That as well would qualify as a HOF season for a RB in any era. His 82 season was not dominant, but would be considered a good year, similar to Watt's rookie year.
Campbell clearly had 5 HOF quality seasons..He also played 2 full seasons (32 games) longer than Watt...Fortunately, the Hall of Fame voters also consider longevity as a criteria for election..Otherwise, we'd have every player who had a couple of monster seasons in the HOF, and we do not.
As shown above, there is no precedent for modern era defensive players with fewer than 119 games being elected as a modern candidate. Kenny Easley was a DPOY, who only played in 89 games..Not only was he never elected as a modern candidate, he was never a finalist OR a semifinalist...And what we are discussing here is if Watt was deserving of placement on the Future Modern Hall of Fame Players set. The set definition is:
"The players on this list are all widely considered to be likely or definite future Hall of Fame inductees."
So while the voters have spoken and Watt was added, it is my opinion, and realistically the opinion of Hall of Fame voters of the past 50+ years that defensive players with less than 119 games played are NOT likely or definite HOFers..Watt is a maybe/maybe not with 83 games played...One more full season and 99 games, he's a bit closer..2 more full seasons and 115 games, THEN I think he more closely meets the criteria of likely to definite HOFer..
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
you said DOMINANT. Not high quality. Also the NFL HOF is not like the baseball HOF, lots of guys are in that are past borderlne. You should know that.
No defensive players since 1960 has been elected as a modern candidate with fewer than 119 games played. Honestly, that's nuff said.
Most of the borderline guys, specifically in recent years, came via Senior Elections.
Again, we are talking PSA set worthiness...And using the set explanation of likely to definite HOFer, I simply don't understand the need to add guys prematurely. At the very least lets see 100 games for the guy before anointing him as a likely to definite HOFer when he clearly hasn't played long enough yet.
As far as "dominant" goes I just think we define that differently. For me a HOF quality season=dominance and once I realized that definition was was different for you, I adjusted my wording. Just as you mention here, there are plenty of players in the HOF who were not DOMINANT..And plenty of players who had a couple of dominant seasons but not enough of them to reach the HOF.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I will concede that we are not far off on that topic or the Watt topic as well. I just think the likelihood he will get in eventually even if he never plays another snap is strong with the likes of Fred Dean, Rickey Jackson, Andre Tippett in who all though all were great, none came close to putting on the run that Watt has. I would vote him in the set just because I say he has a better than 50/50 chance. Did I request him? No. Would I have waited to request him? Yes. Still not as dumb as putting Patrick Willis up for vote. I think we are splitting hairs when it comes to longevity when you show a clear dominance. Also I am not ready to vote on Cam, Zeke, or Dak either, lol.
If/When Terrell Davis and/or Tony Boselli get elected (and BTW Boselli isn't even on the Future HOF Players set and he's been in the top 25 two years now) get elected Watt's odds will improve. Both were dominant, had HOF quality seasons, were the best at their position etc for a short time and both played less than 100 games in the modern era..So let's see those guys go in FIRST and then you look at add Watt rather than prematurely adding.
Just my opinion of course.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Thoughts on adding a couple of veterans to the future list?
Steve Smith (receiver) - Panthers/Ravens
Jason Peters OT - Bills/Eagles
Bill
Unlcear how Steve Smith makes the HOF in front of Andre Johnson...I don't think either is on the level of being LIKELY HOFers..Both will get a look, but Johnson and Smith have very comparable numbers and resumes..If I were choosing one, I think Andre Johnson was more dominant.
I can buy Jason Peters on the set. Outside of Joe Thomas, he's been the best OT in football the past 10 years. While not a lock, I'd consider Peters having a little better than 50/50 shot at election.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I agree that Peters gets in. One of the best tackles of the last decade. Probably would be a great All-Decade Team candidate if his career didn't straddle two decades. I think there are about 40 nine time Pro Bowlers and of those only nine or ten aren't in the Hall. Most of those are locks like Reed, Peppers, Lynch, Faneca, Ware, Brees, and Dawkins. Assuming Peters gets in someday, which RC would you consider for this set? 2004 Leaf R&S #108 or 2004 Bowman #232?
Boldin, Smith Sr., Johnson are all likely to finish with very similar numbers. Boldin could separate himself a bit if he plays another year. Johnson has the most Pro Bowl appearances, which would suggest he was the more dominant player as Jasp indicated. Boldin has a SB ring.
Looks like the Leaf R&S is more expensive on Peters.
Probably too many receivers on set already. I think we need to purge some myself - Jommy Smith, Holt, possible Bruce.
Agree on the purge...What I've always suggested was if a player lasts 5 years as a candidate, and never makes the top 25 semifinalists, he is no longer a likely HOFer. I brought these up back when we used to vote for new additions but none of them every received enough votes for removal.
This would apply to the following:
LEROY BUTLER- HOF eligible for 11 years, never been top 25
GARY ANDERSON- HOF eligible for 8 years, never been top 25
JIMMY SMITH- HOF eligible for 7 years, never been top 25
RUBEN BROWN- HOF eligible for 5 years, never been top 25
Others getting close:
ZACH THOMAS- 4 years
JASON ELAM-3 years
We also have others who HAVE made the top 25 in the past 5 years, or even been a FINALIST who aren't even on the set.
JOE JACOBY- 7 time semifinalist, 1 time Finalist
KARL MECHLENBERG- 6 time semifinalist
TY LAW- 3 time semifinalist
MIKE KENN- 3 time semifinalist
TONY BOSELLI- 2 time semifinalist
DARREN WOODSON- 2 time semifinalist
CLAY MATTHEWS- 2 time semifinalist
CHRIS HINTON- 1 time semifinalist
SAM MILLS- 1 time semifinalist
STEVE WIESNIEWSKI- 1 time semifinalist
Its discrepancies like these which somewhat invalidate the set IMO. Obviously guys who are consistently getting more HOF votes from HOF voters are missing, while others not getting the votes remain. Illogical really
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Spock would not like that.
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
I agree - and then they chose Ken Easley for the senior HOF!
Has anyone tried to remove cards from set? Never had any luck myself, assume it may be same process.
Final 16
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jason Taylor
Brian Dawkins
Morten Andersen
Tony Boselli
Isaac Bruce
Don Coryell
Terrell Davis
Alan Faneca
Joe Jacoby
Ty Law
John Lynch
Kevin Mawae
Terrell Owens
Kurt Warner
Kenny Easley
Predictions:
Tomlinson, Lynch, Owens, Warner, Coryell & Easley
I'm all for cleaning this up. I agree with voting to remove Jimmy Smith, Gary Anderson, Butler, and Brown (that one stings). I'd add Elam in there as well. I think Morton Andersen gets in and we won't see another kicker until Vinatieri. Not so quick to pull Holt or Bruce, particularly now that Bruce made the finalist list.
Jasp could probably shed some light on the likelihood of someone getting inducted who makes the finalist list. I like all of his recommended suggestions, particularly Jacoby, Boselli, Law, and Mecklenburg.
The last Modern Era player to make the final 15 and NOT get elected to the HOF was Bob Kuechenberg in 2009.
There are a few outliers...
Roger Craig was a finalist in 2010, and may not get in (2018 his last shot)
Jimmy Johnson was a finalist in 2015 but not since
Steve At- water and Ed James were both finalists last year, but didn't make it this go round
For the most part, it seems that if you make the finalists early in your candidacy its almost guaranteed they will gain election.
Joe Jacoby didn't make the finals until very late in his candidacy (2018 his last year) but got all the way to the final 10 last year and is again a finalist this year. His odds would seem to be very high if not this year, then next.
Tony Boselli is a finalist in his 5th year of eligibility, it would seem his HOF odds are better than 50/50 and I personally would consider him as a likely HOFer at some point.
Ty Law, finalist in his 3rd year of eligibility, would seem near certainly to get in at some point...He has 17 years of eligibility left, is he really going to fall off the map and/or get so bypassed? Not a ton of CBs coming eligible who are better. Champ Bailey 2019, Charles Woodson 2021.
Karl Mechlenberg a but more iffy..His last year of eligibility is 2019 and while he's been consistently in the top 25, he has yet to make the top 15. That being said, he has still gotten far more HOF support from the voters than Butler, Gary Anderson, Jimmy Smith and Ruben Brown over a large sample size (5+ years)
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Just voted yes on Jason Peters addition.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
With the Class of 2017 HOF Finalists announced, updating my odds for each of being elected this year.
LaDanian Tomlinson-100%..True 1st ballot lock, took some of Ed James support from last year.
Terrell Owens-90%...Voters made their point last year by ensuring Marvin Harrison went in first...Be shocked if he's kept out again
Kurt Warner-85%...Top QB, made the cut to 10 last year..Barring something crazy, pretty good odds for Kurt in a weak class
John Lynch-70%...At least one defensive player will get in, Lynch was the top defender not elected last year
Don Coryell-60%...Coryell would make a ton of sense going in with Tomlinson, making next years HOF game and induction Charger heavy
Terrell Davis-40%..Will they put 2 RBs in the same class? They'd likely have to bump TO or Warner..Could happen, but odds not great
Joe Jacoby-40%...Jacoby is nearing his final year of eligibility (2018)..Made the cut to 10 last year, and returns as the top OL, could easily bump Coryell from a spot, but my money would be on Jacoby Class of 2018
Alan Faneca-30%..Faneca will go in fairly soon, but he would need to jump over Jacoby and then bump votes from Coryell
Jason Taylor-25%...The top DL on the board, its tough to predict where the voters will slot him. He didn't have a 1st ballot career IMO, so be pretty surprised if he were able to get more votes than Lynch or Coryell in year 1
Brian Dawkins.-20%...Good sign to make the top 15 in Year 1...Was he better than Lynch? Personally I think so...But with Lynch getting so close in recent years, I think theyput Lynch in before Dawkins and no way they put a 3rd Safety in (Easley and Lynch being highly likely)
Morten Andersen-20%...Could be a longshot candidate, the only other non-offense or defensive candidate (Coryell the other), could conceivably bump Coryell but the recent voting has not hinted towards that
Ty Law-10%..First time as a finalist, and the only Patriot and CB being discussed...If there were a longshot shocker this year, this would be it
Tony Boselli-5%...Dont see him being able to jump Jacoby and Terrell Davis (low games played comparison)...Once TD gets in, the path will get easier for Boselli
Isaac Bruce-1%...How would he go in before T.O.? Would take something crazy to happen in the meeting
Kevin Mawae-1%...Well behind Alan Faneca on the interior line, as well as Jacoby on the overall OL...Good sign to make the top 15 so early in his eligibility, but he's got a couple of more years to wait.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Hey guys! been a while. I just realized I started this thread 10 years ago now. Boy how time flies.
Anyway I've been kicking around the idea of jumping back into this set. Since selling off a 4 years ago due to divorce ive really missed it.
But boy, prices have shot up lately (at least on the blue chip RC's) I sold my brady PSA SP for $900 and now going for close to 5K!
FINISHED 12/8/2008!!!
Here is some trivia for you. Who retired as the player with most receptions and touchdowns in league history and never has made it to the finalist vote for the HOF? He also finished 12th in TD's and 16th in average per reception. Guy had a great career but has gotten no love from the voters. Simply sad.
Welcome back, Dave! Let's get the band back together. Lol.
Good question, FavreFan. Since Don Hutson retired in 1945 with 99 TDs, that eliminates anyone who retired after him. I'm stumped.
Welcome back Dave.
I'll guess Billy Wilson
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
So which would be considered as the rookie cards for Law, Boselli, and Woodson?
I think you guys are undervaluing Steve Smith.
My guess for the unloved WR, I'll go with Bill Howton
The rookie cards for Charles Woodson is definately the 1998 SP Authentic card #23. The Ty Law and Tony Boselli card in teh registry in other sets are the 1995 SP cards, 174 and 147 respectively.
My guess - LaVern Dilweg
Anyone know why the Pacific card was chosen for Warner?
Is it the only RC in the Future/HOF registries with multiplayer?
It's too bad he shares it with Tony Horne instead of Torry Holt.
Not sure why it was the pacific - it is hard in high grade, Card #343 that is on the future HOF registry.
At one point in the distant past a player was mentioned and then proposed for a set.
We all voted. Either Andy or Jason kept track on the boards for all to see.
If a player was passed with a majority vote then a discussion of possible cards was mentioned and discussed.
Then another vote. I like the old days.
If Warner was chosen in those days, then the above was how it was done.
Nowadays a collector just brings up a player and card and goes directly to psa with it
Value of the card at the time has a major influence. Maybe the Warner card was the best at the time.
On another subject..........Eli Manning.
The more I watch him the more I think of his as an average at the very best QB. WE want his on the same pedestal as Aaron Rodgers????? rattle Eli's cage ...he's done. Aaron can inspire a team and control it's outcome.
When that discussion of removing future HOF players comes around I vote Eli off.
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
Not a big Eli fan but hard to vote off a guy with 2 super bowls.
Also, his numbers are going to be right up there with the big boys once he decides to hang them up.
FINISHED 12/8/2008!!!
My un educated guess would be John Taylor
Eli is a prime example of anointing guys too soon (see JJ Watt and Calvin Johnson)..In the rush to get new cards added every year, it seems like whoever is making the requests is simply throwing out the hot guy of recent NFL memory..Instead of guys who are actually getting close to election (Joe Jacoby???)...Eli was added right after 2nd SB win...I think he still falls in the "likely" HOFer category, but I wouldn't say he's a lock..If he retired today, he would be one of those guys who gets in on his 10th try or so, but likely does get in for his body of work...Aaron Rodgers is easily the better QB, but he is still assembling his body of work...He's already on the set, but if he also retired today and he and Eli came up on the same ballot 5 years from now, I have no idea who gets more votes...But I'd bet that it would be pretty close..
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Why is Reflections not being considered for Peters' RC?. Think it fits the numbering requirement. Does it not book as high as R&S?
Wow, I really thought others would have chimed in on this one. Billy Howton. He retired the leader of the two major categories and gets no love. Really thought he would have been a senior guy by now.
Eli has 2 Super Bowl MVPs, plays in New York beat Brady twice and his last name is Manning. He is a lock. I agree with what almost everyone says about him, but this is the NFL HOF where all the greats get in and some of the very goods, unless you play Safety. This is not the MLB HOF where only the elites get in
So Eli is first ballot? All LOCKS are...He will need to have Peyton level numbers or a 3rd SB ring to be first ballot IMO.
I've been to the Baseball HOF, an amazing place...But gotta tell ya, I see a ton of guys in the baseball HOF I wouldnt consider elite...I mean other than gamblers and steroid users, who exactly is the Baseball HOF excluding who is more deserving than any NFL HOFer? Just an argument I've heard more than a few times, and while I do agree that the NFL HOF has been a bit more inclusive over the years than maybe it should be, MLB HOF isn't any tougher to get in to...
As different as the voting processes are, when you look at who is in and who isn't, the only thing it changes is speed of entry.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
I was asking about Darren Woodson, not Charles. Sorry for the confusion. He has about 6 to close from.
I agree and I'm a Giants fan. He's streaky with bad mechanics. But he's a god to Giants fans. I still think Phil Simms was the best Giants QB.
What do I win for answer correctly Billy Howton?
The '92 Stadium Club seems to be the preferred card from the All-Time Cowboy sets.
92 Stadium Club on Woodson, it is from the same High number set as the Favre.
Thanks on the Darren Woodson info.
Any thoughts on the following AFL guys getting HOF consideration-----Sweeney, Schuh, Budde, Tyrer? I've retired my 1965 Topps set since I sold my Namath but will hold on to the remaining HOFers and players who might have a shot like Johnny Robinson.
Who threw for more than 58,000 yards and 369 TD's with another 82 rushing TD's but has never received serious consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
I don't know the market for most modern issues, so I trust that those who do will select the correct card (ie, the most valuable one that fits the selection criteria).
Doubt Doug Flutie ever gets any more serious HOF thought in the future.
I know its super early in his career, but any idea what is "the" card to get of Antonio Brown? He's one of the rare ones that doesn't have a TC RC
FINISHED 12/8/2008!!!
Personally, I think they may be done with AFLers...Although Johnny Robinson and Otis Taylor have gotten support/votes in recent years...Haven't heard of any other AFL players being Senior Committee semifinalists the past 10 years or so..
Doesn't mean they have zero chance, as the Senior Committee members change, they find new old timers to support and/or push...Much like Easley who hadn't been getting any support from the senior Committee until the past year or so.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Hey Dave - not sure what to pick for Antonio Brown. The Donruss Elite is numbered to 999. Personally, I like the Bowman Sterling card - non autograph.
At first I was thinking Testeverde but he could not run for 8.2 let alone 82 TD's. Flutie will never get a serious thought. Heck, barely anyone from the CFL gets any thoughts. There are some insane "yard" stats in their record books.
I agree with Rex the Eli Manning is a lock for the HOF. He is the only guy to beat Brady in a Super Bowl. And he did it TWICE! LOL. Does a lock mean he has to be a first ballot? No, not even close. We all know players that are locks but certain voters don't want them to be first ballot. I see this Eli for sure. I saw this with Ray Guy who I thought was a lock because of how he changed the game but it took forever to get him in.
Back to Eli, his two Super Bowl MVP's over Brady in those games solidifies his enshrinement.
If this is the definition of a LOCK, then it means LOCK no longer refers to a definite or guaranteed HOFer...If this is the definition of a lock, which includes guys who couldn't get voted into the HOF during their modern candidacy, then there are a TON of "LOCKS" out there...Might be interesting to see everyone's top 50 list of future HOFers..Including all active and retired players not yet in the HOF...For me, Peyton would be #1 in that line, and not sure Eli would make my top 50...So for me, hes not a definite or guarantee to make the HOF, especially if his career closes out with a whimper...If he retired today, he has a tough road to get in...Other than beating Brady in 2 Super Bowls, his argument for induction gets quiet.
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
My top 50 HOF candidates, ranking all payers/coaches not in..Used the current Future Modern HOF set as the base, then added some who are missing. As expected, Eli didnt make my top 50 (he is actually #56) ...
1 1998 SP AUTHENTIC PEYTON MANNING
2 2000 SP AUTHENTIC TOM BRADY
3 BILL BELICHICK
4 1996 BOWMANS BEST RAY LEWIS
5 1997 SP AUTHENTIC TONY GONZALEZ
6 2001 TOPPS CHROME LADANIAN TOMLINSON ROOKIE REFRACTOR
7 1998 SP AUTHENTIC RANDY MOSS
8 1998 SP AUTHENTIC CHARLES WOODSON
9 2000 SP AUTHENTIC BRIAN URLACHER
10 2007 TOPPS CHROME JOE THOMAS
11 2002 TOPPS CHROME ED REED
12 2003 SP AUTHENTIC TROY POLAMALU
13 1999 SP AUTHENTIC CHAMP BAILEY
14 2001 TOPPS CHROME DREW BREES ROOKIE REFRACTOR
15 1996 SP TERRELL OWENS
16 2005 TOPPS CHROME DEMARCUS WARE
17 TOM COUGHLIN
18 1999 PACIFIC KURT WARNER
19 1993 SP JOHN LYNCH
20 DON CORYELL
21 2004 TOPPS CHROME BEN ROETHLISBERGER
22 1995 SP TERRELL DAVIS
23 JOE JACOBY
24 2002 UPPER DECK XL ALAN FANECA
25 2003 SP AUTHENTIC JASON WITTEN
26 1997 PACIFIC PHILADELPHIA ADAM VINATIERI
27 2002 TOPPS CHROME JULIUS PEPPERS
28 1997 SP AUTHENTIC JASON TAYLOR
29 1996 FINEST BRIAN DAWKINS
30 2003 LEAF R & S ANTONIO GATES
31 2003 TOPPS CHROME KEVIN WILLIAMS
32 2001 TOPPS CHROME RICHARD SEYMOUR ROOKIE REFRACTOR
33 1984 TOPPS MORTEN ANDERSEN
34 2004 TOPPS CHROME LARRY FITZGERALD
35 2007 TOPPS CHROME ADRIAN PETERSON
36 TY LAW
37 TONY BOSELLI
38 1994 BOWMAN ISAAC BRUCE
39 1994 BOWMAN KEVIN MAWAE
40 2001 PACIFIC CROWN ROYALE STEVE HUTCHINSON
41 2002 TOPPS CHROME DWIGHT FREENEY
42 1998 LEAF ROOKIES & STARS HINES WARD
43 1999 SP AUTHENTIC EDGERRIN JAMES
44 1984 TOPPS ROGER CRAIG
45 2007 TOPPS CHROME DARRELLE REVIS
46 2004 SP AUTHENTIC JARED ALLEN
47 1989 SCORE STEVE ATWATER
48 ANDRE JOHNSON
49 STEVE SMITH
50 1999 SP AUTHENTIC TORRY HOLT
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
My definition of lock is what the voters will do. My personal opinion is not included. If it were LeRoy Butler would be my #1 ;-) LOL. I see the voters voting Eli Manning ahead of a decent portion of your list. Why? Because he is from New York. Because he won two Super Bowl MVP's. Because he beat the best QB in the history of the NFL in the Super Bowl (my opinion is Montana but the voters love Brady). TWICE LOL. Lastly, because he is a MANNING. I would bet Archie has greased somebody(s), somewhere to make this happen. We all know he ran their lives up to and after the draft and knows how to influence.
In my opinion, Manning will voted in before the following from your list.
Steve Smith
Andre Johnson
Steve Atwater
Dwight Freeney
Antonio Gates
Revis
Ward
Boselli
I am not saying all from you list will get voted in but I am saying Manning will get voted in before they get voted in.