Congratulations GS, a most excellent thread!!! Yepper, we have had good discourse here and mostly dead on predictions over the last 4 years or so. I've heard rumor that there will be an indian attack tonight...hummmmm.
congrats all bull a side i think and hope this thread and it's input has changed my life for the better i'm ready for the things that are here for only one reason this thread thanks
I'm not a frequent poster but I have read just about this whole thread except a couple of small sections that just did not interest me. Some of it was over my head but I got the general idea from most of what I read. All I can say is it was time well spent and I learned a great deal. There are some really sharp minds on here and I hope they hang around.
Let me also add my congratulations to all of you! Everyone here has contributed greatly. Who knows how many thousands of hours of research has gone into all these posts?
Even those that posted what many thought were foolish comments have played a great part here, as they have made us all question the validity of our arguments.
O.K. let me get this straight! Gold is moving up because all the smart money thinks that inflation is the next bubble to inflate. Buffet is charging 15% to companies like Harley Davidson because he also thinks inflation is on the way.
But the Fed and the U.S. Government are selling trillions of dollars worth of LOW interest longer term paper. WHO IN THIS WORLD IS BUYING ALL THIS JUNK?
US Treasury in plans for record debt sale By Michael Mackenzie in New York and Krishna Guha in Washington Published: February 4 2009 18:01 | Last updated: February 4 2009 21:28
The US Treasury on Wednesday opened the floodgates of government bond issuance, revealing plans for a record debt sale in February and more frequent auctions in the months to come. The Treasury said it would sell $67bn in new securities next week, the largest ever quarterly refunding, beating the last peak in August 2003. It may also start monthly sales of all its benchmark Treasury securities.
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee expressed concern on Wednesday over the sharp jump in net borrowing needs – which market analysts estimate could reach $1,500bn to $2,500bn for the 2009 financial year.
Traders are particularly concerned about the appetite for Treasuries among foreign investors, who hold more than half the outstanding $5,500bn in Treasury debt.
<< <i>But the Fed and the U.S. Government are selling trillions of dollars worth of LOW interest longer term paper. WHO IN THIS WORLD IS BUYING ALL THIS JUNK? >>
The Fed. That's why they're printing all of that paper. It's sitting over at the Treasury Dept.
I can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up...
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>I can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up... >>
Be thankful they are not higher as high rates will choke off ANY economic recovery.
GS, CONGRATS!!!! It's been a fun ride.
BTW---I think gold is moving higher, not for perceived inflation threats, but rather as an alternative currency. The Russians have (had) a lot of rubles and have been through devaluations before. I believe a great deal of demand is coming from Russia.
But the Fed and the U.S. Government are selling trillions of dollars worth of LOW interest longer term paper. WHO IN THIS WORLD IS BUYING ALL THIS JUNK?
I can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up...
"........she was practiced at the art of deception............you could tell by her bloodstained hands.................."
Rolling Stones, "You Can't Always Get What You Want"
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"The Treasury said it would sell $67bn in new securities next week"
Hummmm, lessee 67 B a week for 15 weeks would be enough paper for the current 1 T stimulation package. Now, that doesn't include any other stimulation that may come to pass like for the banks, the SCHIP, etc.
Interesting note on the SCHIP...it's being sold as health care to protect the health of children. I was thinking it was a good thing until I dug into it a little...so, it is about the children but the only catch is that you can qualify for the new SCHIP package till you're 30 what? huh? So this is like free health insurance from day 1 to the end of your thirtieth year. So, back to the original question: who's gonna buy all this paper and the follow-up question at what point does the dollar be so diluted that it is worth less or maybe worthless.
Silly me, paying on that mortgage and all, paying for my part of the health insurance, paying my income, property, school, fuel, mineral taxes what am I doin' wrong here, I'm not getting any stimulation at all!
<< <i>I can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up... >>
Snipit But, whatever. We can't afford to sit around and pity ourselves just because we allowed the thieves of Wall Street and Washington administer this unlubricated broomstick to our collective backsides.
The only intelligent thing to do, and yes I do believe there is a "stuck record" frequency developing here, is to buy gold and silver. This $4 trillion hallucination on the part of the United States financial mismanagers is directly dilutive to the the value of any currency issued by that bankrupt nation, and is therefore a natural exponential driver for the gold price.
Gold bullion, gold mining shares, and for maximum upside (with correlated risk) gold juniors. If you choose NOT to participate in gold, you will have no one but yourself to blame for the splinters you'll be plucking out from your derriere that have "In God We Trust" printed on them.
Snipit Monetary forces may be the driver in the gold market, but we can use these reports to help with short term expectations. Demand is strong, really strong. There were record figures across the board. On the other side of the story, supplies are tight and will continue to be tight. The players are coming back to the game and this will provide strong underlying support in the gold market going forward. I still hold to my views that gold may test $1000 in the near term, but I believe we're one correction back to $850 away before we make a run up to $1500.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
Happy Anniversay GoldSaint. You're now a grandpappy!
can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up...
You can thank JPM for helping to swing this chicanery in order to basically fool the entire global financial system. There's a good reason why they have systematically increased their interest rate derivatives creation over the past 10 years to something on the order of $50-$75 TRILLION. They are basically the world's biggest casino. Their billions in gold derivatives have had a similar quenching in the pog over the same period.
Total world interest rate derivative swaps are on the order of $350 TRILLION. Interest rates have steadily declined over the past 28 years. If you read Dr. Fekete, this has allowed the banksters to take over the financial system right up to the point of complete failure. In the process, so much debt has been created that it can no longer be serviced/financed.
A few reasons why treasury yields are remarkably low:
(1) The Asian exporters, especially China and Japan, have been willing to buy our debt to support export led growth.
(2) Capital investment in China and other countries has led to a situation of overcapacity.
(3) Item (2), combined with the debt laden American consumer has helped to create a deflationary situation. This may persist for along time, in spite of "stimulus" and monetary expansion. In a deflationary environment, even low yielding treasuries are viewed as better than cash.
Arguably, sitmulus of domestic consumption in China would be more powerful at pulling the global economy out of recession than stimulus in the US. This might cause upward pressure on US interest rates, which might tempt the Fed to start buying treasury bonds, which might lead to ...
<< <i>Arguably, sitmulus of domestic consumption in China would be more powerful at pulling the global economy out of recession than stimulus in the US. >>
That makes sense to me.
China and most of the far east has put their bets on high import rates, high domestic savings, low consumption, and amassing foreign reserves. This all comes tumbling down, it seems to me, if the American consumer decides not to consume anymore.
I'm still not clear what the US plans to do, beyond "stimulating" the economy to have people consume again (people are upset Americans are instead paying down debt and buying less crap). In fact, there is no going back; all that borrowing and hyper-consumption was obviously unsustainable.
There does need to be an international shaking out, a breather, and a reallignment.
We need to consume less and borrow less. Asians need to consume more, and save less.
My chartwork tells me a huge move will happen in the stock market shortly, possibly within the next 10 trading days. I dont know which way, but the move will be considerable.
<< <i><< Arguably, sitmulus of domestic consumption in China would be more powerful at pulling the global economy out of recession than stimulus in the US. >>
That makes sense to me. >>
Not to me. We are still the biggest economy in the world and, contrary to popular opinion, still the biggest manufacturer in the world.
p.s. DPoole, please don't destroy this forum. Thank you in advance for your consideration.
To put this into perspective since Canada's population is smaller than California's....the USA would have to lose nearly 1.1 million jobs. Instead we "only" lost 598,000. Brutal, eh?
Sometime this year, taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:
Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment? A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers..
Q. Where will the government get this money? A. From taxpayers.
Q. So the government is giving me back my own money? A. No, they are borrowing it from China. Your children are expected to repay the Chinese.
Q. What is the purpose of this payment? A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.
Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China? A. Shut up."
Does anyone think the recent rally on the Dow and S&P has legs?. It seems as if all is well with the world and we are ready to press on. Sometimes it's difficult to get a good read on reality when the press is so in love with Dear Leader.
Does anyone think the recent rally on the Dow and S&P has legs?. It seems as if all is well with the world and we are ready to press on. Sometimes it's difficult to get a good read on reality when the press is so in love with Dear Leader.
I see a grunch of commodities (oil, coal, water, agri, metals, gas, steel, etc.) as well as insurance companies, health care, etc. that have basically been moving up strongly since around Christmas. Many of those companies are either in the 3rd or 5th legs up. Seems like a start to me even if the broad indicies don't yet confirm.
Socialism does not take long to waste all the money of generations!
U.S. Taxpayers Risk $9.7 Trillion on Bailouts as Senate Votes
By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) --
The stimulus package the U.S. Congress is completing would raise the government’s commitment to solving the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, enough to pay off more than 90 percent of the nation’s home mortgages.
“We’ve seen money go out the back door of this government unlike any time in the history of our country,” Senator Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, said on the Senate floor Feb. 3. “Nobody knows what went out of the Federal Reserve Board, to whom and for what purpose. How much from the FDIC? How much from TARP? When? Why?”
The $9.7 trillion in pledges would be enough to send a $1,430 check to every man, woman and child alive in the world. It’s 13 times what the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Congressional Budget Office data, and is almost enough to pay off every home mortgage loan in the U.S., calculated at $10.5 trillion by the Federal Reserve.
Bloomberg requested details of Fed lending under the Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit against the central bank Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure of borrower banks and their collateral. Arguments in the suit may be heard as soon as this month.
<< <i>The stimulus package the U.S. Congress is completing would raise the government’s commitment to solving the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, enough to pay off more than 90 percent of the nation’s home mortgages.
“We’ve seen money go out the back door of this government unlike any time in the history of our country,” Senator Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, said on the Senate floor Feb. 3. “Nobody knows what went out of the Federal Reserve Board, to whom and for what purpose. How much from the FDIC? How much from TARP? When? Why?” >>
I was just reading that too GoldSaint. And to think just last year they made a big deal of our national debt hitting 10 Trillion dollars. We are on the hook to double that in less than a year.
“Well, now the entire Country is in distress, There is no one
big enough to offer aid but the Federal Government.”
Comrade Bear,
Not to worry, now that we are in the brotherhood, and a socialist country, the communist Chinese will loan us all the money we need! At what cost to our children no one knows, but who really cares?
Comments
REN
<< <i>CONGRATS GOLDSAINT!
REN >>
Congrats from a fairly newcomer here, this thread is a great read!
Rob
I knew it would happen.
all bull a side i think and hope this thread and it's input has changed my life
for the better i'm ready for the things that are here
for only one reason this thread thanks
We've all learned a lot from this thread.... and I'm sure that will continue!
...and it's closing in on the Moon Landing Conspiracy thread on the old Open Forum for the most posts.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Even those that posted what many thought were foolish comments have played a great part here, as they have made us all question the validity of our arguments.
O.K. let me get this straight! Gold is moving up because all the smart money thinks that inflation is the next bubble to inflate. Buffet is charging 15% to companies like Harley Davidson because he also thinks inflation is on the way.
But the Fed and the U.S. Government are selling trillions of dollars worth of LOW interest longer term paper. WHO IN THIS WORLD IS BUYING ALL THIS JUNK?
US Treasury in plans for record debt sale
By Michael Mackenzie in New York and Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: February 4 2009 18:01 | Last updated: February 4 2009 21:28
The US Treasury on Wednesday opened the floodgates of government bond issuance, revealing plans for a record debt sale in February and more frequent auctions in the months to come.
The Treasury said it would sell $67bn in new securities next week, the largest ever quarterly refunding, beating the last peak in August 2003. It may also start monthly sales of all its benchmark Treasury securities.
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee expressed concern on Wednesday over the sharp jump in net borrowing needs – which market analysts estimate could reach $1,500bn to $2,500bn for the 2009 financial year.
Traders are particularly concerned about the appetite for Treasuries among foreign investors, who hold more than half the outstanding $5,500bn in Treasury debt.
<< <i>But the Fed and the U.S. Government are selling trillions of dollars worth of LOW interest longer term paper. WHO IN THIS WORLD IS BUYING ALL THIS JUNK? >>
The Fed. That's why they're printing all of that paper. It's sitting over at the Treasury Dept.
<< <i>I can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up...
Be thankful they are not higher as high rates will choke off ANY economic recovery.
GS, CONGRATS!!!! It's been a fun ride.
BTW---I think gold is moving higher, not for perceived inflation threats, but rather as an alternative currency. The Russians have (had) a lot of rubles and have been through devaluations before. I believe a great deal of demand is coming from Russia.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up...
"........she was practiced at the art of deception............you could tell by her bloodstained hands.................."
Rolling Stones, "You Can't Always Get What You Want"
I knew it would happen.
Hummmm, lessee 67 B a week for 15 weeks would be enough paper for the current 1 T stimulation package. Now, that doesn't include any other stimulation that may come to pass like for the banks, the SCHIP, etc.
Interesting note on the SCHIP...it's being sold as health care to protect the health of children. I was thinking it was a good thing until I dug into it a little...so, it is about the children but the only catch is that you can qualify for the new SCHIP package till you're 30 what? huh? So this is like free health insurance from day 1 to the end of your thirtieth year. So, back to the original question: who's gonna buy all this paper and the follow-up question at what point does the dollar be so diluted that it is worth less or maybe worthless.
Silly me, paying on that mortgage and all, paying for my part of the health insurance, paying my income, property, school, fuel, mineral taxes what am I doin' wrong here, I'm not getting any stimulation at all!
<< <i>I can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up...
OPA this may help, a wee bit.
tbills
<< <i>Who would have ever thought all those years ago that our CRAZY ramblings would have turned out to be mostly correct? >>
Even more remarkable is that such widely divergent views have
largely been bourne out. Unremarkably, no one really got it right
in all regards.
I've maintained all along that there is no choice but inflation. I'll
consider this correct if they make us starve instead.
<< <i>Just to play devil's advocate (and get the post count to 10K)...
Anyone think this could be another 1980 - and gold will have topped because the big bang stimulus will work? >>
No!
The economy was a stone pillar in 1980 compared to what it has been in recent years.
The FED brushes up the pieces that fall off the house of cards and stacks them back up,
but does so in a growing storm.
Snipit
But, whatever. We can't afford to sit around and pity ourselves just because we allowed the thieves of Wall Street and Washington administer this unlubricated broomstick to our collective backsides.
The only intelligent thing to do, and yes I do believe there is a "stuck record" frequency developing here, is to buy gold and silver. This $4 trillion hallucination on the part of the United States financial mismanagers is directly dilutive to the the value of any currency issued by that bankrupt nation, and is therefore a natural exponential driver for the gold price.
Gold bullion, gold mining shares, and for maximum upside (with correlated risk) gold juniors. If you choose NOT to participate in gold, you will have no one but yourself to blame for the splinters you'll be plucking out from your derriere that have "In God We Trust" printed on them.
Gold Demand Resurges
Snipit
Monetary forces may be the driver in the gold market, but we can use these reports to help with short term expectations. Demand is strong, really strong. There were record figures across the board. On the other side of the story, supplies are tight and will continue to be tight. The players are coming back to the game and this will provide strong underlying support in the gold market going forward. I still hold to my views that gold may test $1000 in the near term, but I believe we're one correction back to $850 away before we make a run up to $1500.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
can't understand why the interest rate on the T bills & notes is at an alltime low ... with all that debt going on the books, interest rates should be way up...
You can thank JPM for helping to swing this chicanery in order to basically fool the entire global financial system. There's a good reason why they have systematically increased their interest rate derivatives creation over the past 10 years to something on the order of $50-$75 TRILLION. They are basically the world's biggest casino. Their billions in gold derivatives have had a similar quenching in the pog over the same period.
Total world interest rate derivative swaps are on the order of $350 TRILLION. Interest rates have steadily declined over the past 28 years. If you read Dr. Fekete, this has allowed the banksters to take over the financial system right up to the point of complete failure. In the process, so much debt has been created that it can no longer be serviced/financed.
roadrunner
(1) The Asian exporters, especially China and Japan, have been willing to buy our debt to support export led growth.
(2) Capital investment in China and other countries has led to a situation of overcapacity.
(3) Item (2), combined with the debt laden American consumer has helped to create a deflationary situation. This may persist for along time, in spite of "stimulus" and monetary expansion. In a deflationary environment, even low yielding treasuries are viewed as better than cash.
Arguably, sitmulus of domestic consumption in China would be more powerful at pulling the global economy out of recession than stimulus in the US. This might cause upward pressure on US interest rates, which might tempt the Fed to start buying treasury bonds, which might lead to ...
<< <i>Arguably, sitmulus of domestic consumption in China would be more powerful at pulling the global economy out of recession than stimulus in the US. >>
That makes sense to me.
China and most of the far east has put their bets on high import rates, high domestic savings, low consumption, and amassing foreign reserves. This all comes tumbling down, it seems to me, if the American consumer decides not to consume anymore.
I'm still not clear what the US plans to do, beyond "stimulating" the economy to have people consume again (people are upset Americans are instead paying down debt and buying less crap). In fact, there is no going back; all that borrowing and hyper-consumption was obviously unsustainable.
There does need to be an international shaking out, a breather, and a reallignment.
We need to consume less and borrow less. Asians need to consume more, and save less.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i><< Arguably, sitmulus of domestic consumption in China would be more powerful at pulling the global economy out of recession than stimulus in the US. >>
That makes sense to me. >>
Not to me. We are still the biggest economy in the world and, contrary to popular opinion, still the biggest manufacturer in the world.
p.s. DPoole, please don't destroy this forum. Thank you in advance for your consideration.
To put this into perspective since Canada's population is smaller than California's....the USA would have to lose nearly 1.1 million jobs. Instead we "only" lost 598,000. Brutal, eh?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sometime this year, taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:
Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers..
Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.
Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. No, they are borrowing it from China. Your children are expected to repay the Chinese.
Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.
Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China?
A. Shut up."
<< <i> DPoole, please don't destroy this forum. Thank you in advance for your consideration. >>
Oh, good. I like groveling.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Ren
I see a grunch of commodities (oil, coal, water, agri, metals, gas, steel, etc.) as well as insurance companies, health care, etc. that have basically been moving up strongly since around Christmas. Many of those companies are either in the 3rd or 5th legs up. Seems like a start to me even if the broad indicies don't yet confirm.
roadrunner
Socialism does not take long to waste all the money of generations!
U.S. Taxpayers Risk $9.7 Trillion on Bailouts as Senate Votes
By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) --
The stimulus package the U.S. Congress is completing would raise the government’s commitment to solving the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, enough to pay off more than 90 percent of the nation’s home mortgages.
“We’ve seen money go out the back door of this government unlike any time in the history of our country,” Senator Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, said on the Senate floor Feb. 3. “Nobody knows what went out of the Federal Reserve Board, to whom and for what purpose. How much from the FDIC? How much from TARP? When? Why?”
The $9.7 trillion in pledges would be enough to send a $1,430 check to every man, woman and child alive in the world. It’s 13 times what the U.S. has spent so far on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Congressional Budget Office data, and is almost enough to pay off every home mortgage loan in the U.S., calculated at $10.5 trillion by the Federal Reserve.
Bloomberg requested details of Fed lending under the Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit against the central bank Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure of borrower banks and their collateral. Arguments in the suit may be heard as soon as this month.
<< <i>The stimulus package the U.S. Congress is completing would raise the government’s commitment to solving the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, enough to pay off more than 90 percent of the nation’s home mortgages.
“We’ve seen money go out the back door of this government unlike any time in the history of our country,” Senator Byron Dorgan, a North Dakota Democrat, said on the Senate floor Feb. 3. “Nobody knows what went out of the Federal Reserve Board, to whom and for what purpose. How much from the FDIC? How much from TARP? When? Why?”
>>
I was just reading that too GoldSaint. And to think just last year they made a big deal of our national debt hitting 10 Trillion dollars. We are on the hook to double that in less than a year.
Like Al said, the debate is over.
Comrade Renski
Hey I like that, it makes us sound like we are brothers and sisters, you know it gives us a closeness we did not have before.
I think everyone here should post every coin they own and be willing to share to fill holes. I will be last to post to make sure all of YOU comply.
way to stimulate not only home sales, but would place more
cash in the hands of consumers almost immediately.
Camelot
way to stimulate not only home sales, but would place more
cash in the hands of consumers almost immediately.”
Ah yes but why buy a house now when our Comrade President will see that home prices fall another 15% the next 12 months and then offer us a 3% rate?
Be patient Comrade!
Comrade Renski, out
rest of the Country assists thru Federal aid. There
is nothing Socialist about this. It is an entire Nation
coming to the aid of a State in distress.
Well, now the entire Country is in distress, There is no one
big enough to offer aid but the Federal Government. What would
be the alternative, 20 years of deflation and depression until
the problem corrects. It would be like living thru the Dark Ages again.
Camelot
big enough to offer aid but the Federal Government.”
Comrade Bear,
Not to worry, now that we are in the brotherhood, and a socialist country, the communist Chinese will loan us all the money we need! At what cost to our children no one knows, but who really cares?
<< <i> What would
be the alternative, 20 years of deflation and depression until
the problem corrects. It would be like living thru the Dark Ages again. >>
Here's a thought. Get the GD government out of micro-managing the economy.
The pols screwed it up. We'll fix it...if they'd let us.
Gold flight