Actually, here's a deal...we will get this TARP money to the banks and they will loan it to the people so they can buy cars and stuff and get the economy going again. But, the banks say...Hey, we got some money to put on our balance sheet. We need to get the balance sheet up so our stock prices will rise and we can get out of this trough and no, unfortunately, we can't afford to loan any money right now in fact, we're lookin' for the second half of the TARP money...we only got half of what we were promised. What's the deal, when do we get our money?
Quite a good piece by Gary Becker in today's WSJ about the stimulus. A remarkably level headed and balanced analysis, but certainly to be ignored.
(he basically says (1) don't count on the stimulus to provide much stimulus, (2) the cost is not trivial, and of course will need to be paid through future taxes of one form or another, and (3) in any case, by trying to spend 1$ trillion in a hurry, we will certainly seriously misallocate resources)
<< <i>Quite a good piece by Gary Becker in today's WSJ about the stimulus. A remarkably level headed and balanced analysis, but certainly to be ignored.
(he basically says (1) don't count on the stimulus to provide much stimulus, >>
It didn't work during the the Great Depression and it won't work during the Dodd-Frank Depression.
<< <i>(2) the cost is not trivial, and of course will need to be paid through future taxes of one form or another, >>
Yeah? No kidding?
<< <i> (3) in any case, by trying to spend 1$ trillion in a hurry, we will certainly seriously misallocate resources) >>
Much of the spending doesn't even kick in for a year or two. Given the boondoggle that it is, most of it is "misallocated resources".
I, for one, completely love the idea of ACORN getting 4.1----B,B,B,illion dollars.
Talk about an agenda gone bad. ///////////////////////////////
Well, now the entire Country is in distress, There is no one
big enough to offer aid but the Federal Government
I didn't know the country was in distress. There is so much money sitting on the sidelines just waiting to see how this whole political dynamic plays out. The current regime would like you to believe that we are facing ruin by MONDAY. Their agenda takes precedence over what is financially sound.
Rob has been digging recently to see if he could justify the reason why the price between WTI sweet crude has been bring about 10% less a barrel than the more raw Brent version. It's no secret that the UST has been conducting gold swaps behind the scenes in order to show foreign banks selling gold (ie we leased it to them) rather than us. It's a good price capping scheme that shows no gold "officially" leaving the coffers since leases are counted on both on both the sellers and buyers books as assets (ie no inventory change). Kirby suggests that in 2008 the same thing was done with Brent and WTI, that is that WTI from the US strategic petroleum reserves were swapped into the market for raw crudes. This would cause the price of sweet to drop but still show identical SPR inventories. Such a scheme certainly could have caused supply to drastically increase just as 2008 oil prices were hitting record highs.
In any case the record shows that oil exchanges were transacted in 2008. Food for thought.
Don't you think it is about time GLD and all the other popular international gold ETFs told its owners exactly what kind of gold they claim to own?
Can you imagine a situation where a person buys a gold ETF to own "non-gold" but finds out that they in reality own OTC derivatives on gold? That would be an investment in the same type of financial instrument (not gold) that one owns gold bullion to protect against.
The failure to unearth the Madoff scandal becomes incredible when one understands that the returns from the market claimed on the size of the hedge fund were logically impossible.
The exact same reasoning screams bloody murder when applied to the many Gold EFTs in terms of what it is they really own.
This begs one major question: From where did all the gold claimed to be owned by all the gold ETFs come from?
Where did funds such as GLD get their additional 45 tons in the last month?
We certainly can forget about that gold coming from the Comex. 12 deliveries would stand out like a sore thumb.
This concept and record keeping eliminates all exchanges around the globe as the source of bullion delivery in any size to all Gold ETFs.
The physical market is so tight that coin minting has all but closed down compared to what it was one year ago. It is hard to accept that the Gold EFTs can buy what the mints can't.
A read of the original prospectus removes any thought that the gold is leased, but leaves one to invite probability.
That probability is that the claimed gold can only be OTC derivative long positions. If that is so then the financial reliability of the paper stands on the foundation of the balance sheet of the granting counter party to the OTC derivative. This is true regardless of whether it is a mine or naked speculator.
Don't you think it is about time the gold ETFs told their owners exactly what kind of gold it is that they claim to own?
I think you own an ETF of derivatives, not of gold!
If I am correct then there is no clearinghouse guarantee for the OTC derivative to function.
Well Goldsaint, even if what JS suggests is true, the ETF's are a "great" trading vehicle......at least until a few minutes after the truth is discovered.
The author starts off by challenging the reader to name one time in modern history in a major country where during a deflation crisis on a symbolic currency (ie non-asset backed), that the govt was powerless after all possible efforts, to stem the deflationary tide. Bottom line was that apparently there are no instances, not even during our great depression. Within weeks of FDR severing the rigid gold-currency link in March 1933 the deflation rate stopped dead in its tracks and the economy turned inflationary. Before the end of the summer of 1933 the inflation rate was 40%. Needless to say the stock market turned right around and boomed.
This is an easy read with some excellent points, some of which I had not considered before. The author notes that there have been countless examples of inflationary busts over the past 100 yrs, but no major nation deflationary busts. He leaves it to us to decide which outcome is more likely considering we don't have a gold standard in effect to hamper us from quickly moving deflation to inflation. And $10 TRILLION or so is a good start.
<< <i>Well Goldsaint, even if what JS suggests is true, the ETF's are a "great" trading vehicle......at least until a few minutes after the truth is discovered.
The author starts off by challenging the reader to name one time in modern history in a major country where during a deflation crisis on a symbolic currency (ie non-asset backed), that the govt was powerless after all possible efforts, to stem the deflationary tide. Bottom line was that apparently there are no instances, not even during our great depression. Within weeks of FDR severing the rigid gold-currency link in March 1933 the deflation rate stopped dead in its tracks and the economy turned inflationary. Before the end of the summer of 1933 the inflation rate was 40%. Needless to say the stock market turned right around and boomed.
This is an easy read with some excellent points, some of which I had not considered before. The author notes that there have been countless examples of inflationary busts over the past 100 yrs, but no major nation deflationary busts. He leaves it to us to decide which outcome is more likely considering we don't have a gold standard in effect to hamper us from quickly moving deflation to inflation. And $10 TRILLION or so is a good start.
roadrunner >>
^ Don't believe everything you read on the internet.
RR maybe I misread but it seemed that when FDR confiscated gold and replaced it with 'symbolic curency' is when deflation flipped to inflation. and that the country controls "it"....ie Helicopter Ben's joke.......you said it was an easy read and it is (sorta) but i need to re-read it for sure.
And what? Follow the lead of an immature laughing stork who presents nothing of substance in this thread?
You need to step away from ebay for a while and deal with the real world. If you have some contrary facts or opinions to offer, present them. If not, continue to do what you do best, post emoticons to register that +1. But do it over on the BST or Coin Forum.
57loaded, I believe your summary matches what the author was stating. Rather than re-read it you can just look at EBT's laughing head for a quick and well researched analysis. We'll all be waiting for EBT's inflation/deflation data to show that in fact no inflation occured in 1933. I trust he won't draw from an internet link as you can't trust those. The Library of Congress probably has what he needs.
The temptation to inflate is hard for a government to resist anyway (the only thing that stops it is threat of the citizentry setting up the guillotine again). But in times like this, the temptatation is manifestly overwhelming, and they have fig leaf cover galore.
Everyone is talking as though deflation were the spiral to hell, and must be stopped at (literally) all costs.
Anyone catch "House of Cards" last night on cnbc? What sttuck me was that no experts believed this could all happen...the meltdown. Well, the contributors here have known since this threads inception. And before I got onboard here I acted accordingly to my gut feeling and California RE history...reducing all my RE holdings by 2005/6 and moved out of the "peoples republic." The problem is that experts are beholden to who signs there paycheck and cannot clearly think without immense pressure to tote the party line. It's why I enjoy watching Kudlow swaying back and forth...it's almost commical.
Also in the program was a lot of Greenspeak. Greenspan admitted that he could do nothing about subprime. He had a 100 PHD's on the subject of CDO's and couldn't figure out their worth or their derivation.
It really was a national disease. Some bankers actually believed that RE would go up 6-8% forever...and based their models on this.
And then there's the politicians, Frank, Dodd, blah blah blah....
So do we really expect a rebound in the spring as Kudlow just announced. Trillions of dollars of debt, countries about to fold, millions to be homeless and Larry thinks this will right itself up in a few months. It's laughable.
<< <i>Anyone catch "House of Cards" last night on cnbc? What sttuck me was that no experts believed this could all happen...the meltdown. >>
Had Fannie & Freddie not cooked the books on loan quality and then have the rating companies rubber stamp it, the party would probably still be going on.
<< <i>Also in the program was a lot of Greenspeak. Greenspan admitted that he could do nothing about sub prime. He had a 100 PHD's on the subject of CDO's and couldn't figure out their worth or their derivation. >>
Kinda hard for him to counter legislation mandating the expansion of sub prime lending. Concerning CDO's, that's up to the counter parties to figure than one out.
<< <i>And then there's the politicians, Frank, Dodd, blah blah blah.... >>
Those two were out there running interference for Freddie & Fannie. Their culpability is without question. Hell, Dodd has already apologized for his roll. I'd like to know what they knew and when they knew it. A criminal trial appears to be in order.
<< <i>So do we really expect a rebound in the spring as Kudlow just announced. Trillions of dollars of debt, countries about to fold, millions to be homeless and Larry thinks this will right itself up in a few months. It's laughable. >>
<< <i>Anyone catch "House of Cards" last night on cnbc? What sttuck me was that no experts believed this could all happen...the meltdown. Well, the contributors here have known since this threads inception. >>
I not only said it could happen but would happen.
But if you go back and look I suggested that the government would immediately begin inflating our way out of it. They have resisted this for reasons I can only wonder.
If the dollar hasd lost half its value by now there would be no crisis except for the spiraling inflation and panicky buying of all types of as- set protection from oil stocks to real estate to gold.
Inflation hurts and inflation causes huge waste but a house of cards can not be stopped in mid fall. Should they somehow pull off such an impossible feat we will immediately return to $200 oil and a far larger shock to the house.
The house of cards is built of rules, laws, regulations and layer upon layer upon layer of the very status quo that turned our schools into ed- ucational black holes that got us into this mess.
There is no way back and there is no ground to stand on here. There is only the future which we need to start building with what we have in the here and now.
We don't have indefinite time to start building. Populations continue to increase and political instabilities will grow as wealth distribution re- mains absurd worldwide. Propping up what is eats at the little time we have remaining.
The dollar is off sharply. Bonds are off sharply. The market is broadly lower and near long term lows.
The government is talking martial law.
Perhaps the markets are about to do what the FED hasn't the courage; inflate. It could be a debacle if the market does it since it might well involve panic.
Seems as improbable as going back to the gold standard but martial law is definitely in big O's lexicon and the topic has popped up in other places. There are some peculiar things that are aligning such as the run on weapons and ammo. I don't think it's as simple as higher prices predicted in the future for the weapons so buy now while they're cheap. I think a lot of people are genuinely going bunker mentality here. If you watch the newsers talk about the topic, they all say the same thing...people are buying weapons and ammo because of furture higher taxes and prices on these items but as usual, the media is a tool of the govt. anymore so they are feeding BS to the masses, thank goodness for Drudge and others of the same ilk. The real reason for the run on guns has not surfaced but I know why myself and folk that I know are buying and it's not because of prices, it's to protect ourselves. Protect ourselves against what is the obvious question and the answer is against anything or anyone that may threaten to do us personal injury or harm; maybe we saw to much of the N.O. La. Katrina footage. It is obvious that a substantial number of people across the entire country feel very threatened by our current situation, enough to do something about it.
If you look for it in the nightly national news casts you will notice that there is considerable effort by our leaders and the media to not stampede the herd as in: it's all gonna be OK if we pass the stimulus, there is no problem in Afghanistan we just need a few more troops, the stock market will recover so keep your buks in there, we will be recovered by the end of '09 or certainly by the Spring of '10. Of course all of this is pure BS and if that's BS then what is really going on here? The fly in the ointment here is that Humm...he wouldn't say exactly why Go ahead and read the article and then just think about it for a minute. I have never heard someone with a federal appointment say that he had some serious ideological conflicts with his appointer, in this case the big O himself. Maybe he found out what was about to happen...I mean, the Secretary of Commerce has some pretty far reaching and awsome responsibilities. So, no one will take the job to do what big O wants to do to us? That really begs the question...just what is he planning to do to us?
I said a couple of weeks ago that something is up, something big. I don't know what it is but if you are trying to get your stuff in order, right now is a very good time. The warnings are abundant, time may not be. "You know something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones."
Those two were out there running interference for Freddie & Fannie. Their culpability is without question. Hell, Dodd has already apologized for his roll. I'd like to know what they knew and when they knew it. A criminal trial appears to be in order.
Franks has said more than once that since he only became chairman of the finance committee in 2007, he isn't responsible for Freddie & Fannie's antics, and that he had tried to reign them in for years. Somebody needs to give that guy a wedgie, except that he'd probably enjoy it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Well Ive got it figured out at last. Only took me 60 something years to see the new American way. Tomorrow I will sell all my weapons, what little silver and gold I have, my rototiller and garden equipment and then apply for welfare. I will let the state take care of my medical; my food stamps will feed me and cash grants (welfare money) will pay my utilities and mortgage. See how easy it is now? No Problems right? Except the country and states are broke. You want an economic prediction ?I'll give you mine............... The Fed is finally going to take this country over. The congress is going to redraw the district boundaries and then you will see what a true welfare state is all about. I see martial law in our future. Precious metals will only last you so long. Thank God I wont be around for the end of this country but I do apologize to the ones we leave it to . END OF RANT.... You may now return to your regularly scheduled activities
I just had a different type of experience. A guy comes into my business.....this customer(abt 25 years old) is from the 'hood' and sees me reading the bridge column in the paper. He proceeds to tell me that he reads it everyday. I am shocked. We start to talk about how ...35 years ago...I and my friends used to stay up all night in college and play bridge. And then in the WSJ today was a picture of the death squad in Mexico City. And we both talked about that. At length.
stay with me here.
My customer and I started talking about how things are changing with the 'new' generation. I mentioned to him about my generation and how we would get dismissed from school for chewing gum in class. Or going to the principals office if you didn't make the second bell.
There was this total look of disbelief on his face. He didn't believe me.
Please forgive my rambling....the moral of the story is----things in this country are changing VERY FAST. And not for the better.
The USGovt, complete with Dept Treasury henchmen from Goldman Sachs, and compromised USCongress committee wonks, still has not addressed the underlying problem: Billions of dollars of toxic securities and loans languish on banks balance sheets. The big banks are flailing, reluctant to make sharp writedowns, urging accounting boards to exclude mark to market methods, hiding assets off the balance sheets, anything to buy another day. In the meantime, the USEconomy suffers from credit seizures and basic deprivation. Much of the funds authorized for rescues, bailouts, and nationalizations have been squandered, not by waste, but in fighting credit derivative fires. These activities are not publicized for many reasons. Attention is not wanted on the flimsy foundation to the US banks. Attention is not wanted to reveal the location of financial nuclear bombs of great potential destructive force. One informed contact to the Hat Trick Letter expects at least $30 trillion and perhaps over $50 trillion to blow up eventually in credit derivatives, with uncertain consequences. Much has been discussed of the Credit Default Swaps that insure asset backed bond like mortgages and corporates. However, given the extreme pressures from near 0% rates, the Interest Rate Swaps have begun to blow up. The JPMorgan machine has abused the leverage of IRSwaps to force long-term interest rates down for a decade. The Bond Vigilantes pulled a disappearing act over that decade. With fresh fires in the IRSwap Laboratories, the same Bond Vigilantes might reappear, as rumor has indicated in just the last couple weeks.
This plucked out of Jim Willie's missive today. $30-$50 TRILL sounds like a fair number to "resolve" the CDS fiasco. Ironically, TARP money is still being used by the banksters to create new CDS's and with the same high leverage ratio's that got them in trouble to begin with. I found it scary that the interest rate derivatives are now starting to trickle in. It's scary because they are the largest derivative factor and as yet is still essentially still buried out of sight. Most every bank out there with a billion or more in assets probably carries at least a few percent in exposure. My own local bank with multiple branches carries a 5% exposure worth about $50 MILLION. In the latest derivative's numbers among the top 25 US banks, JPM-BoA-Citi carry 92% of the $175 TRILLION in US bank derivatives. JPM alone carries 50% at $88 TRILLION. The top 8 banks carry >99% of the exposure.
Gold closed out the week above $940 and exceeded the 2008 long term resistance down trend line. The fact that only a $10 correction occured still seems like gold is storing energy for another move up. Gold stocks suffered only a minor correction today of 0-2% on average while some of them were up. Oil is looking like a pretty good longer term play again.
<< <i>The USGovt, complete with Dept Treasury henchmen from Goldman Sachs, and compromised USCongress committee wonks, still has not addressed the underlying problem: Billions of dollars of toxic securities and loans languish on banks balance sheets. The big banks are flailing, reluctant to make sharp writedowns, urging accounting boards to exclude mark to market methods, hiding assets off the balance sheets, anything to buy another day. In the meantime, the USEconomy suffers from credit seizures and basic deprivation. Much of the funds authorized for rescues, bailouts, and nationalizations have been squandered, not by waste, but in fighting credit derivative fires. These activities are not publicized for many reasons. Attention is not wanted on the flimsy foundation to the US banks. Attention is not wanted to reveal the location of financial nuclear bombs of great potential destructive force. One informed contact to the Hat Trick Letter expects at least $30 trillion and perhaps over $50 trillion to blow up eventually in credit derivatives, with uncertain consequences. Much has been discussed of the Credit Default Swaps that insure asset backed bond like mortgages and corporates. However, given the extreme pressures from near 0% rates, the Interest Rate Swaps have begun to blow up. The JPMorgan machine has abused the leverage of IRSwaps to force long-term interest rates down for a decade. The Bond Vigilantes pulled a disappearing act over that decade. With fresh fires in the IRSwap Laboratories, the same Bond Vigilantes might reappear, as rumor has indicated in just the last couple weeks.
This plucked out of Jim Willie's missive today. $30-$50 TRILL sounds like a fair number to "resolve" the CDS fiasco. Ironically, TARP money is still being used by the banksters to create new CDS's and with the same high leverage ratio's that got them in trouble to begin with. I found it scary that the interest rate derivatives are now starting to trickle in. It's scary because they are the largest derivative factor and as yet is still essentially still buried out of sight. Most every bank out there with a billion or more in assets probably carries at least a few percent in exposure. My own local bank with multiple branches carries a 5% exposure worth about $50 MILLION. In the latest derivative's numbers among the top 25 US banks, JPM-BoA-Citi carry 92% of the $175 TRILLION in US bank derivatives. JPM alone carries 50% at $88 TRILLION. The top 8 banks carry >99% of the exposure.
Gold closed out the week above $940 and exceeded the 2008 long term resistance down trend line. The fact that only a $10 correction occured still seems like gold is storing energy for another move up. Gold stocks suffered only a minor correction today of 0-2% on average while some of them were up. Oil is looking like a pretty good longer term play again.
>>
It was sheer madness after the events of 1987 not to severely cripple the derivatives markets. It was not only the problem of computer trading it was also the result of what they were trad- ing. To expand and grow these markets after that debacle is madness of biblical proportion.
Years ago I had an A-6E and a F/A-18D at my disposal...sure wish I could borrow one of them for my community-protection-plan. I'll need a few 5" rockets and some 500 pounders and a bag of gas.
I remember last fall we discussed martial law here. Someone dug up future training of 20,000 troops to be used for domestic violence or whatever. This has been in the works for a while.
JS just increased the Defcon status yet again.......
Dear Extended Family,
I sent you a certain few emails that I consider to be the most important communications issued in my career that started in 1958.
I am the son of what I know to have been the greatest Lone Wolf trader in Wall Street history ever, Bertram J. Seligman. He was a past master at his business and believed to be a market sensitive. I apprenticed to him, learned from him and inherited some of his ability, not all however.
From this background of experience understanding and sensitivity the following flows.
The emails of note:
1. Said, "This is it." 2. Said, "It is now."
This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, "It is totally out of control." There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.
For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.
Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.
1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven’t you are headed for significant displeasure and strain. 2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods. 3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose. 4. Own gold. 5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required. 6. For currencies, all you can do is own a spread held by a true custodial ship wherever that might be.
Simply said, as of Friday February 13th, 2009 the situation is in confirmed "Out of Control" mode as this well engineered downward spiral enters into a terminal phase.
The motive was profit and degree of the disintegration caused in the pursuit of this goal was not anticipated.
The key event was when Lehman was flushed - all hell broke loose. The hell cannot be contained in any practical manner.
I seek nothing of you, but the protection of yourselves.
<< <i>Cladking - . . . you seem more pessimistic now than in the past. Am I reading you correctly? >>
I expected that the government would take the only reasonable course and inflate.
I fear this is a power grab but there is such great incompetence any longer that this can't be entirely ruled out either.
I hope I'm just miscalculating and the government has knowledge that inflation is best put off for the nonce.
Yes, I'm much more pessimistic than I was. I've never before wondered the motives of our leaders. I'd like to hear Greenspan's take on the current situation. Starvation is probably still politically inexpedient but we may be headed to central planning and con- trolled markets. The economy could never recover under these conditions.
Yeah RoadRunner, I too was shocked by the "defcom" increase from Sinclair! It is scary that there is no plan coming forth due to..... THERE IS NO VIABLE PLAN.
Sinclair's casuse for alarm is my cause for worry. It is even stratling to listen to CNBC as the eternal optimists are descending off the deep end of concern and support for GOLD at all costs; a "defcom" attitude is prevailing in many financial circles.
From Mr. President: Ladies and gentlemen, don't read the fine print let alone the 1,000 pages, just vote for it...and that's an order cause "I won and I'll trump you on that."
I briefly mentioned this 28 yr. formation not too long ago. This author has put it far better than I could have with excellent detail and a simple chart to explain it. Just one more engine to add to the pro-gold pile. Interesting how the March 2008 peak and subsequent pull back play into that analysis. The shape of the cup is far from perfect, but it's definitely more bullish than bearish.
Unfortunately, I'm afraid this is not hyperbole. Even though the effect could be severely deflationary, in the short term, you'd have to expect a major upward more for gold. Presumably downward pressure on the euro, perhaps a move back towards dollars. In any case, we probably won't need to wait long to find out. I hope there are some cool heads out there.
This is an interesting article, but after reading it I'm really not sure what inflation myths he is exposing? I have never met anyone who was concerned with a "runaway" deflation -- that is, an ongoing appreciation of the currency. People are concerned with a one time event that turns into a liquidity trap, where pumping money into the system is like treading water. The velocity of money collapses, and you end up in a depression.
His info is contrived and conclusions are dubious at best.
<< <i>Yet, the United States did break out of the deflationary cycle, as illustrated in the graph above. After rapidly plunging for about 30 months, with the CPI seemingly in free fall and not able to find a floor – there was an abrupt turnaround. Not only was a floor found, but an immediate cycle of inflation replaced the seemingly unstoppable deflation. The nation turned essentially “on a dime”, from unstoppable deflation to inflation instead. A cycle of inflation that has continued until this day. >>
His chart stops at 1937. Why? Because it doesn't support his theory. The CPI fell again and was 13.8 from March to August of 1938.
<< <i>In the depths of depression, at the height of a deflationary spiral, the government successfully broke the back of deflation within one week. In the midst of deflationary pressures far greater than we are seeing today, the government not only stopped the deflation, but replaced it with inflation. Indeed, by May of 1933, only two months after the currency rules changed, the monthly rate of inflation hit an annualized rate of 10%, and even hit a 40%+ plus (annualized) monthly rate by June of 1933. >>
Here is the CPI during these supposed critical months. It is sourced from the only source available and in which he had to refer: 1933-03-01 12.60 1933-04-01 12.60 1933-05-01 12.60 1933-06-01 12.70 1933-07-01 13.10 1933-08-01 13.200 1933-09-01 13.200 1933-10-01 13.200
Where the hell did he come up with this month-over-month inflation rate? Even the fourtenths jump from June to July doesn't support his inflation numbers.
Interesting chart at the end. So we don't surpass 1,033 March 2008 record until around this September or October. Until then we hit 1,000 and drag back down for a bit. After October it looks like a moon shot.
This is probably the timeframe that Chairman Obama's Porkulus gets panned for good and the Chinese say "no mas" to our debt and Europe implodes enmasse.
The saddest part will be the look on the sheeples faces when they realize the Chairman has failed....nah! they'll blame GW.
"the Chinese say "no mas""...nope, the Chinese will say "bu hen hao" (not good) 'cause they don't speak spanish.
"The saddest part will be the look on the sheeples faces when they realize the Chairman has failed." Nah, as they were so astute as to pull the lever for him in the first place then they will probably be just as clueless when they are standing in the food line. It's all good now though because we won't have welfare checks any more as it is no longer PC so now we have economic stimulus checks...much better because rather than being on the public dole, they will be stimulating the economy; hey did you notice Mickey D's stock is on a tear...it's all good. So, if gold does do the moon shot what good is it? Who would sell their stash to survive in a dicey market place...seems it would be best to just hold on to it till you're ready to retire. Chaos is strange, eh?
Comments
I knew it would happen.
To answer your rhetorical question. Yes. Because the Govt meddling will require our children and grandchildren to live through 50 years of Dark Ages.
We have lived very well the last 50 years, now it is time for some pain, so that the next generation(s) can enjoy the experiences that we have had.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Many new comrades! Salute! >>
Ahhhh, jmski...remember we were only two from mother country?
Now we have many many new comrades to share pain.
Feels like old times.
Comrade Renski
to each according to their needs".
There is nothing wrong with our financial system
that hanging all of the bankers and Fed Members
would not cure.
Camelot
(he basically says (1) don't count on the stimulus to provide much stimulus, (2) the cost is not trivial, and of course will need to be paid through future taxes of one form or another, and (3) in any case, by trying to spend 1$ trillion in a hurry, we will certainly seriously misallocate resources)
<< <i>Quite a good piece by Gary Becker in today's WSJ about the stimulus. A remarkably level headed and balanced analysis, but certainly to be ignored.
(he basically says (1) don't count on the stimulus to provide much stimulus, >>
It didn't work during the the Great Depression and it won't work during the Dodd-Frank Depression.
<< <i>(2) the cost is not trivial, and of course will need to be paid through future taxes of one form or another, >>
Yeah? No kidding?
<< <i> (3) in any case, by trying to spend 1$ trillion in a hurry, we will certainly seriously misallocate resources) >>
Much of the spending doesn't even kick in for a year or two. Given the boondoggle that it is, most of it is "misallocated resources".
Talk about an agenda gone bad.
///////////////////////////////
Well, now the entire Country is in distress, There is no one
big enough to offer aid but the Federal Government
I didn't know the country was in distress. There is so much money sitting on the sidelines just waiting to see how this whole political dynamic plays out. The current regime would like you to believe that we are facing ruin by MONDAY. Their agenda takes precedence over what is financially sound.
told, If Tarp was not voted right away, the next step
would be the declaration of Martial Law. To handle the
rioting and mayhem that would occure in the near future.
If so, I believe that it was a tad bit of an overstatement.
The only people rioting, might have been the bankers and
folks in the financial district.
Camelot
Rob has been digging recently to see if he could justify the reason why the price between WTI sweet crude has been bring about 10% less a barrel than the more raw Brent version. It's no secret that the UST has been conducting gold swaps behind the scenes in order to show foreign banks selling gold (ie we leased it to them) rather than us. It's a good price capping scheme that shows no gold "officially" leaving the coffers since leases are counted on both on both the sellers and buyers books as assets (ie no inventory change). Kirby suggests that in 2008 the same thing was done with Brent and WTI, that is that WTI from the US strategic petroleum reserves were swapped into the market for raw crudes. This would cause the price of sweet to drop but still show identical SPR inventories. Such a scheme certainly could have caused supply to drastically increase just as 2008 oil prices were hitting record highs.
In any case the record shows that oil exchanges were transacted in 2008. Food for thought.
roadrunner
Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,
Don't you think it is about time GLD and all the other popular international gold ETFs told its owners exactly what kind of gold they claim to own?
Can you imagine a situation where a person buys a gold ETF to own "non-gold" but finds out that they in reality own OTC derivatives on gold? That would be an investment in the same type of financial instrument (not gold) that one owns gold bullion to protect against.
The failure to unearth the Madoff scandal becomes incredible when one understands that the returns from the market claimed on the size of the hedge fund were logically impossible.
The exact same reasoning screams bloody murder when applied to the many Gold EFTs in terms of what it is they really own.
This begs one major question: From where did all the gold claimed to be owned by all the gold ETFs come from?
Where did funds such as GLD get their additional 45 tons in the last month?
We certainly can forget about that gold coming from the Comex. 12 deliveries would stand out like a sore thumb.
This concept and record keeping eliminates all exchanges around the globe as the source of bullion delivery in any size to all Gold ETFs.
The physical market is so tight that coin minting has all but closed down compared to what it was one year ago. It is hard to accept that the Gold EFTs can buy what the mints can't.
A read of the original prospectus removes any thought that the gold is leased, but leaves one to invite probability.
That probability is that the claimed gold can only be OTC derivative long positions. If that is so then the financial reliability of the paper stands on the foundation of the balance sheet of the granting counter party to the OTC derivative. This is true regardless of whether it is a mine or naked speculator.
Don't you think it is about time the gold ETFs told their owners exactly what kind of gold it is that they claim to own?
I think you own an ETF of derivatives, not of gold!
If I am correct then there is no clearinghouse guarantee for the OTC derivative to function.
A great read on inflation occuring during the great depression...Amerman
The author starts off by challenging the reader to name one time in modern history in a major country where during a deflation crisis on a symbolic currency (ie non-asset backed), that the govt was powerless after all possible efforts, to stem the deflationary tide. Bottom line was that apparently there are no instances, not even during our great depression. Within weeks of FDR severing the rigid gold-currency link in March 1933 the deflation rate stopped dead in its tracks and the economy turned inflationary. Before the end of the summer of 1933 the inflation rate was 40%. Needless to say the stock market turned right around and boomed.
This is an easy read with some excellent points, some of which I had not considered before. The author notes that there have been countless examples of inflationary busts over the past 100 yrs, but no major nation deflationary busts. He leaves it to us to decide which outcome is more likely considering we don't have a gold standard in effect to hamper us from quickly moving deflation to inflation. And $10 TRILLION or so is a good start.
roadrunner
<< <i>Well Goldsaint, even if what JS suggests is true, the ETF's are a "great" trading vehicle......at least until a few minutes after the truth is discovered.
A great read on inflation occuring during the great depression...Amerman
The author starts off by challenging the reader to name one time in modern history in a major country where during a deflation crisis on a symbolic currency (ie non-asset backed), that the govt was powerless after all possible efforts, to stem the deflationary tide. Bottom line was that apparently there are no instances, not even during our great depression. Within weeks of FDR severing the rigid gold-currency link in March 1933 the deflation rate stopped dead in its tracks and the economy turned inflationary. Before the end of the summer of 1933 the inflation rate was 40%. Needless to say the stock market turned right around and boomed.
This is an easy read with some excellent points, some of which I had not considered before. The author notes that there have been countless examples of inflationary busts over the past 100 yrs, but no major nation deflationary busts. He leaves it to us to decide which outcome is more likely considering we don't have a gold standard in effect to hamper us from quickly moving deflation to inflation. And $10 TRILLION or so is a good start.
roadrunner >>
And what? Follow the lead of an immature laughing stork who presents nothing of substance in this thread?
You need to step away from ebay for a while and deal with the real world. If you have some contrary facts or opinions to offer, present them. If not, continue to do what you do best, post emoticons to register that +1. But do it over on the BST or Coin Forum.
57loaded, I believe your summary matches what the author was stating. Rather than re-read it you can just look at EBT's laughing head for a quick and well researched analysis. We'll all be waiting for EBT's inflation/deflation data to show that in fact no inflation occured in 1933. I trust he won't draw from an internet link as you can't trust those. The Library of Congress probably has what he needs.
roadrunner
Everyone is talking as though deflation were the spiral to hell, and must be stopped at (literally) all costs.
Great article.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
this may have been posted sometime ago
side note
RR ... i thought you were referring to (E)uropean (B)usiness (T)rends
Also in the program was a lot of Greenspeak. Greenspan admitted that he could do nothing about subprime. He had a 100 PHD's on the subject of CDO's and couldn't figure out their worth or their derivation.
It really was a national disease. Some bankers actually believed that RE would go up 6-8% forever...and based their models on this.
And then there's the politicians, Frank, Dodd, blah blah blah....
So do we really expect a rebound in the spring as Kudlow just announced. Trillions of dollars of debt, countries about to fold, millions to be homeless and Larry thinks this will right itself up in a few months. It's laughable.
Comrade Renski
<< <i>Anyone catch "House of Cards" last night on cnbc? What sttuck me was that no experts believed this could all happen...the meltdown. >>
Had Fannie & Freddie not cooked the books on loan quality and then have the rating companies rubber stamp it, the party would probably still be going on.
<< <i>Also in the program was a lot of Greenspeak. Greenspan admitted that he could do nothing about sub prime. He had a 100 PHD's on the subject of CDO's and couldn't figure out their worth or their derivation. >>
Kinda hard for him to counter legislation mandating the expansion of sub prime lending. Concerning CDO's, that's up to the counter parties to figure than one out.
<< <i>And then there's the politicians, Frank, Dodd, blah blah blah.... >>
Those two were out there running interference for Freddie & Fannie. Their culpability is without question. Hell, Dodd has already apologized for his roll. I'd like to know what they knew and when they knew it. A criminal trial appears to be in order.
<< <i>So do we really expect a rebound in the spring as Kudlow just announced. Trillions of dollars of debt, countries about to fold, millions to be homeless and Larry thinks this will right itself up in a few months. It's laughable.
>>
Bless his heart for being the eternal optimist.
<< <i>Comrade Renski >>
Indeed.
<< <i>Anyone catch "House of Cards" last night on cnbc? What sttuck me was that no experts believed this could all happen...the meltdown. Well, the contributors here have known since this threads inception.
>>
I not only said it could happen but would happen.
But if you go back and look I suggested that the government would
immediately begin inflating our way out of it. They have resisted this
for reasons I can only wonder.
If the dollar hasd lost half its value by now there would be no crisis
except for the spiraling inflation and panicky buying of all types of as-
set protection from oil stocks to real estate to gold.
Inflation hurts and inflation causes huge waste but a house of cards
can not be stopped in mid fall. Should they somehow pull off such an
impossible feat we will immediately return to $200 oil and a far larger
shock to the house.
The house of cards is built of rules, laws, regulations and layer upon
layer upon layer of the very status quo that turned our schools into ed-
ucational black holes that got us into this mess.
There is no way back and there is no ground to stand on here. There
is only the future which we need to start building with what we have
in the here and now.
We don't have indefinite time to start building. Populations continue
to increase and political instabilities will grow as wealth distribution re-
mains absurd worldwide. Propping up what is eats at the little time we
have remaining.
near long term lows.
The government is talking martial law.
Perhaps the markets are about to do what the FED hasn't the courage; inflate. It
could be a debacle if the market does it since it might well involve panic.
Where is the leadership?
<< <i>Somebody show me where the Government is talking martial law. >>
There was anecdodal evidence.
Mostly what's been going on in Washington for the past 48 hours is finger pointing.
This is scary enough when it's politics as usual but it's absolutely frightening when
we are being told we're on the brink.
Seems as improbable as going back to the gold standard but martial law is definitely in big O's lexicon and the topic has popped up in other places. There are some peculiar things that are aligning such as the run on weapons and ammo. I don't think it's as simple as higher prices predicted in the future for the weapons so buy now while they're cheap. I think a lot of people are genuinely going bunker mentality here. If you watch the newsers talk about the topic, they all say the same thing...people are buying weapons and ammo because of furture higher taxes and prices on these items but as usual, the media is a tool of the govt. anymore so they are feeding BS to the masses, thank goodness for Drudge and others of the same ilk. The real reason for the run on guns has not surfaced but I know why myself and folk that I know are buying and it's not because of prices, it's to protect ourselves. Protect ourselves against what is the obvious question and the answer is against anything or anyone that may threaten to do us personal injury or harm; maybe we saw to much of the N.O. La. Katrina footage. It is obvious that a substantial number of people across the entire country feel very threatened by our current situation, enough to do something about it.
If you look for it in the nightly national news casts you will notice that there is considerable effort by our leaders and the media to not stampede the herd as in: it's all gonna be OK if we pass the stimulus, there is no problem in Afghanistan we just need a few more troops, the stock market will recover so keep your buks in there, we will be recovered by the end of '09 or certainly by the Spring of '10. Of course all of this is pure BS and if that's BS then what is really going on here? The fly in the ointment here is that Humm...he wouldn't say exactly why Go ahead and read the article and then just think about it for a minute. I have never heard someone with a federal appointment say that he had some serious ideological conflicts with his appointer, in this case the big O himself. Maybe he found out what was about to happen...I mean, the Secretary of Commerce has some pretty far reaching and awsome responsibilities. So, no one will take the job to do what big O wants to do to us? That really begs the question...just what is he planning to do to us?
I said a couple of weeks ago that something is up, something big. I don't know what it is but if you are trying to get your stuff in order, right now is a very good time. The warnings are abundant, time may not be. "You know something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones."
Franks has said more than once that since he only became chairman of the finance committee in 2007, he isn't responsible for Freddie & Fannie's antics, and that he had tried to reign them in for years. Somebody needs to give that guy a wedgie, except that he'd probably enjoy it.
I knew it would happen.
Tomorrow I will sell all my weapons, what little silver and gold I have, my rototiller and garden equipment and then apply for welfare. I will let the state take care of my medical; my food stamps will feed me and cash grants (welfare money) will pay my utilities and mortgage.
See how easy it is now? No Problems right?
Except the country and states are broke.
You want an economic prediction ?I'll give you mine............... The Fed is finally going to take this country over. The congress is going to redraw the district boundaries and then you will see what a true welfare state is all about. I see martial law in our future.
Precious metals will only last you so long. Thank God I wont be around for the end of this country but I do apologize to the ones we leave it to .
END OF RANT.... You may now return to your regularly scheduled activities
stay with me here.
My customer and I started talking about how things are changing with the 'new' generation. I mentioned to him about my generation and how we would get dismissed from school for chewing gum in class. Or going to the principals office if you didn't make the second bell.
There was this total look of disbelief on his face. He didn't believe me.
Please forgive my rambling....the moral of the story is----things in this country are changing VERY FAST. And not for the better.
This plucked out of Jim Willie's missive today. $30-$50 TRILL sounds like a fair number to "resolve" the CDS fiasco. Ironically, TARP money is still being used by the banksters to create new CDS's and with the same high leverage ratio's that got them in trouble to begin with. I found it scary that the interest rate derivatives are now starting to trickle in. It's scary because they are the largest derivative factor and as yet is still essentially still buried out of sight. Most every bank out there with a billion or more in assets probably carries at least a few percent in exposure. My own local bank with multiple branches carries a 5% exposure worth about $50 MILLION. In the latest derivative's numbers among the top 25 US banks, JPM-BoA-Citi carry 92% of the $175 TRILLION in US bank derivatives. JPM alone carries 50% at $88 TRILLION. The top 8 banks carry >99% of the exposure.
Gold closed out the week above $940 and exceeded the 2008 long term resistance down trend line. The fact that only a $10 correction occured still seems like gold is storing energy for another move up. Gold stocks suffered only a minor correction today of 0-2% on average while some of them were up. Oil is looking like a pretty good longer term play again.
roadrunner
<< <i>The USGovt, complete with Dept Treasury henchmen from Goldman Sachs, and compromised USCongress committee wonks, still has not addressed the underlying problem: Billions of dollars of toxic securities and loans languish on banks balance sheets. The big banks are flailing, reluctant to make sharp writedowns, urging accounting boards to exclude mark to market methods, hiding assets off the balance sheets, anything to buy another day. In the meantime, the USEconomy suffers from credit seizures and basic deprivation. Much of the funds authorized for rescues, bailouts, and nationalizations have been squandered, not by waste, but in fighting credit derivative fires. These activities are not publicized for many reasons. Attention is not wanted on the flimsy foundation to the US banks. Attention is not wanted to reveal the location of financial nuclear bombs of great potential destructive force. One informed contact to the Hat Trick Letter expects at least $30 trillion and perhaps over $50 trillion to blow up eventually in credit derivatives, with uncertain consequences. Much has been discussed of the Credit Default Swaps that insure asset backed bond like mortgages and corporates. However, given the extreme pressures from near 0% rates, the Interest Rate Swaps have begun to blow up. The JPMorgan machine has abused the leverage of IRSwaps to force long-term interest rates down for a decade. The Bond Vigilantes pulled a disappearing act over that decade. With fresh fires in the IRSwap Laboratories, the same Bond Vigilantes might reappear, as rumor has indicated in just the last couple weeks.
This plucked out of Jim Willie's missive today. $30-$50 TRILL sounds like a fair number to "resolve" the CDS fiasco. Ironically, TARP money is still being used by the banksters to create new CDS's and with the same high leverage ratio's that got them in trouble to begin with. I found it scary that the interest rate derivatives are now starting to trickle in. It's scary because they are the largest derivative factor and as yet is still essentially still buried out of sight. Most every bank out there with a billion or more in assets probably carries at least a few percent in exposure. My own local bank with multiple branches carries a 5% exposure worth about $50 MILLION. In the latest derivative's numbers among the top 25 US banks, JPM-BoA-Citi carry 92% of the $175 TRILLION in US bank derivatives. JPM alone carries 50% at $88 TRILLION. The top 8 banks carry >99% of the exposure.
Gold closed out the week above $940 and exceeded the 2008 long term resistance down trend line. The fact that only a $10 correction occured still seems like gold is storing energy for another move up. Gold stocks suffered only a minor correction today of 0-2% on average while some of them were up. Oil is looking like a pretty good longer term play again.
>>
It was sheer madness after the events of 1987 not to severely
cripple the derivatives markets. It was not only the problem of
computer trading it was also the result of what they were trad-
ing. To expand and grow these markets after that debacle is
madness of biblical proportion.
You don't say what your customer's attitudes were towards the Mexican death squads.
I knew it would happen.
LET ME COUNT THE WAYS:
1. Army Colt 45 Automatic
2. Browning 9mm Automatic
3. Ruger 357 Magnum revolver
4. High Standard 22 revolver
5. Winchester rifle
2000 assorted rounds
Still looking for the following:
5 " rapid fire naval gun
40mm cannon
Howitzer
Just kidding on wish list.
Camelot
<< <i>i HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE.
Years ago I had an A-6E and a F/A-18D at my disposal...sure wish I could borrow one of them for my community-protection-plan. I'll need a few 5" rockets and some 500 pounders and a bag of gas.
I remember last fall we discussed martial law here. Someone dug up future training of 20,000 troops to be used for domestic violence or whatever. This has been in the works for a while.
C. Renski
LET ME COUNT THE WAYS:
1. Army Colt 45 Automatic
2. Browning 9mm Automatic
3. Ruger 357 Magnum revolver
4. High Standard 22 revolver
5. Winchester rifle
2000 assorted rounds
Still looking for the following:
5 " rapid fire naval gun
40mm cannon
Howitzer
Just kidding on wish list.
Dear Extended Family,
I sent you a certain few emails that I consider to be the most important communications issued in my career that started in 1958.
I am the son of what I know to have been the greatest Lone Wolf trader in Wall Street history ever, Bertram J. Seligman. He was a past master at his business and believed to be a market sensitive. I apprenticed to him, learned from him and inherited some of his ability, not all however.
From this background of experience understanding and sensitivity the following flows.
The emails of note:
1. Said, "This is it."
2. Said, "It is now."
This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, "It is totally out of control." There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.
For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.
Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.
1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven’t you are headed for significant displeasure and strain.
2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods.
3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.
4. Own gold.
5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required.
6. For currencies, all you can do is own a spread held by a true custodial ship wherever that might be.
Simply said, as of Friday February 13th, 2009 the situation is in confirmed "Out of Control" mode as this well engineered downward spiral enters into a terminal phase.
The motive was profit and degree of the disintegration caused in the pursuit of this goal was not anticipated.
The key event was when Lehman was flushed - all hell broke loose. The hell cannot be contained in any practical manner.
I seek nothing of you, but the protection of yourselves.
roadrunner
<< <i>Cladking - . . . you seem more pessimistic now than in the past. Am I reading you correctly? >>
I expected that the government would take the only reasonable course and inflate.
I fear this is a power grab but there is such great incompetence any longer that this
can't be entirely ruled out either.
I hope I'm just miscalculating and the government has knowledge that inflation is best
put off for the nonce.
Yes, I'm much more pessimistic than I was. I've never before wondered the motives of
our leaders. I'd like to hear Greenspan's take on the current situation. Starvation is
probably still politically inexpedient but we may be headed to central planning and con-
trolled markets. The economy could never recover under these conditions.
It is scary that there is no plan coming forth due to..... THERE IS NO VIABLE PLAN.
Sinclair's casuse for alarm is my cause for worry.
It is even stratling to listen to CNBC as the eternal optimists are descending off the deep end of concern and support for GOLD at all costs; a "defcom" attitude is prevailing in many financial circles.
Miles
From Mr. President: Ladies and gentlemen, don't read the fine print let alone the 1,000 pages, just vote for it...and that's an order cause "I won and I'll trump you on that."
Comrade Renski
get ready for the..... BIG PLOP!
Camelot
I briefly mentioned this 28 yr. formation not too long ago. This author has put it far better than I could have with excellent detail and a simple chart to explain it. Just one more engine to add to the pro-gold pile. Interesting how the March 2008 peak and subsequent pull back play into that analysis. The shape of the cup is far from perfect, but it's definitely more bullish than bearish.
FED's gold planning and keeping inflationary forces well-disguised
A very well presented article by a university student. Couldn't help but notice that he claims to be a derivatives trader.
roadrunner
<< <i>Puncturing Deflation Myths >>
Oh, good grief! Not this drivel again.
His info is contrived and conclusions are dubious at best.
<< <i>Yet, the United States did break out of the deflationary cycle, as illustrated in the graph above. After rapidly plunging for about 30 months, with the CPI seemingly in free fall and not able to find a floor – there was an abrupt turnaround. Not only was a floor found, but an immediate cycle of inflation replaced the seemingly unstoppable deflation. The nation turned essentially “on a dime”, from unstoppable deflation to inflation instead. A cycle of inflation that has continued until this day. >>
His chart stops at 1937. Why? Because it doesn't support his theory. The CPI fell again and was 13.8 from March to August of 1938.
<< <i>In the depths of depression, at the height of a deflationary spiral, the government successfully broke the back of deflation within one week. In the midst of deflationary pressures far greater than we are seeing today, the government not only stopped the deflation, but replaced it with inflation. Indeed, by May of 1933, only two months after the currency rules changed, the monthly rate of inflation hit an annualized rate of 10%, and even hit a 40%+ plus (annualized) monthly rate by June of 1933. >>
Here is the CPI during these supposed critical months. It is sourced from the only source available and in which he had to refer:
1933-03-01 12.60
1933-04-01 12.60
1933-05-01 12.60
1933-06-01 12.70
1933-07-01 13.10
1933-08-01 13.200
1933-09-01 13.200
1933-10-01 13.200
Where the hell did he come up with this month-over-month inflation rate? Even the fourtenths jump from June to July doesn't support his inflation numbers.
The guy is just trolling for clients.
<< <i>Long term cup and handle formation in gold
roadrunner >>
Interesting chart at the end. So we don't surpass 1,033 March 2008 record until around this September or October. Until then we hit 1,000 and drag back down for a bit. After October it looks like a moon shot.
This is probably the timeframe that Chairman Obama's Porkulus gets panned for good and the Chinese say "no mas" to our debt and Europe implodes enmasse.
The saddest part will be the look on the sheeples faces when they realize the Chairman has failed....nah! they'll blame GW.
Ren
"The saddest part will be the look on the sheeples faces when they realize the Chairman has failed." Nah, as they were so astute as to pull the lever for him in the first place then they will probably be just as clueless when they are standing in the food line. It's all good now though because we won't have welfare checks any more as it is no longer PC so now we have economic stimulus checks...much better because rather than being on the public dole, they will be stimulating the economy; hey did you notice Mickey D's stock is on a tear...it's all good. So, if gold does do the moon shot what good is it? Who would sell their stash to survive in a dicey market place...seems it would be best to just hold on to it till you're ready to retire. Chaos is strange, eh?