Again, it's pretty easy for me to see that kind of talk serves no useful purpose, and political wrangling / showboating, etc. does not further the business of IMPROVING the country.
And, of course, for the past eight years, the MoveOn.org crowd has been rooting for George Bush to be a rousing success.
Easy on the politics folks. Do you want to be the one who derails this thread? Posts about the economy, as it is influenced by coins, PM's, etc., are probably ok.... but pure political sparring could result in this thread going poof.......
"Easy on the politics folks. Do you want to be the one who derails this thread? Posts about the economy, as it is influenced by coins, PM's, etc., are probably ok.... but pure political sparring could result in this thread going poof......."
Oh yeah! It is very difficult to not discuss the greatest movement of the political center in the modern history of the U.S. congress. Believe me, I have plenty of opinion about our situation but for naught, it is simply my opinion and I did vote. It is exceptionally hard to keep your opinions to yourself, particularly when we are all very comfortable discussing divergent, digressive topics with each other and this is frustrating not being able to address this issue in our forum. Carol et al has given us a lot of room for our open discussions and we have all benefited from this opportunity socially, financially and philosophically. Hopefully the moderators will give us a little slack as we find our footing given the situation we find ourselves in.
But, we simply can not get into the discussion of BHO and his people. It is very hard not to because we can all see it, we can all just wonder and we so want to talk about it but this is not the place and maybe even not the time. Also, regardless of anyones opinion, the executive and his congress were rightfully elected by the vote of the people and that is what it is and that's what it is. Remember Bob Dylan's chorus, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." if you need to find reassurance in your perceptions.
We have had some threads deleted here recently and I think that should be good evidence of just where the line is. The line is that we simply do not discuss politics here and even discussions about policy may be a bit of bad form considering the purpose of this forum and the fact that we have many lurkers from other forums other places that do read us and look in on our discussions and they also must be respected. On the other hand, discussing how to benefit from or make a profit from these policies and politics should be both an open topic and one that we should promote in this thread and forum; there are plenty of excellent strategists here and we can all benefit. Remember, there is always exceptional opportunity in chaos. It may be good to not ever even mention BHO here because of the extreme political polarization that is going to happen in the very near future, it will be very dramatic ala 1969. I guess that old saw about If you have to think about the appropriateness of an act or action, you should probably abandon it right there because it probably has no place here.
Oh well, I'm not telling people what to do nor do I think that I am in any way trying to influence the discussions here but we will just have to keep our political bias to ourselves and our private conversations or we're going to be missing something that we have all enjoyed very much.
That is all. Please return to your regularly scheduled programming.
I have participated in 5 recessions. My parents in a couple of more. With all due respect, based on personal experience.........the current economic policies about to be carried out-w or w/o republican approval are going to very bad for people with moderate wealth. We are going to be taxed to death-all in the name of loyalty to the 'GOVT'.
Moving your wealth laterally to gold is non-beneficial to the GOVT comrades and it would not suprise me if fundamentals get materially weaker and the move accelerates then curbs will be instituted. Like the 'PATRIOT ACT' whereby restrictions were placed on those dealers redeeming your precious metals. What good would gold be..........if withholding(i.e.) tax were required when you redeem.
I see many clouds on the horizon. The storm is within sight.
you need.... 1. income 2. no debt 3. a skill(s) 4. assets 5. equity
I apologize for injecting politics into this thread and will refrain from such comments in the future. However, I do get rather aggravated with the smart-alecky left-wing comments that appear now and then.
To get it back on topic, yes, I am one of those folks that is scared to death of the trillion-dollar deficits that are starting to appear. While the CBO says things will calm down and "only" $3 trillion will be added to the deficit over the next ten years, the Concord Coalition estimates it at just over $10 trillion additional debt by 2020 (and even that's conservative). That's why my wife and I recently refinanced our mortgage to a 5% fixed and, a few months ago, using some of her inheritance from her father's estate, we finally picked up some gold bullion and tucked it away in the SDB. Things are certainly going to get a whole lot uglier but at least we sleep a little better at night now.
<< <i>I apologize for injecting politics into this thread and will refrain from such comments in the future. However, I do get rather aggravated with the smart-alecky left-wing comments that appear now and then.
To get it back on topic, yes, I am one of those folks that is scared to death of the trillion-dollar deficits that are starting to appear. While the CBO says things will calm down and "only" $3 trillion will be added to the deficit over the next ten years, the Concord Coalition estimates it at just over $10 trillion additional debt by 2020 (and even that's conservative). That's why my wife and I recently refinanced our mortgage to a 5% fixed and, a few months ago, using some of her inheritance from her father's estate, we finally picked up some gold bullion and tucked it away in the SDB. Things are certainly going to get a whole lot uglier but at least we sleep a little better at night now. >>
Oh quite trying to make us feel better. I read the debt from nation hood to Reagan and was quite surprised. You say only 3 trillon in ten years? That really makes me feel better...maybe you should go and see what that number is. I'm afraid that the policies made today are going to be talked about just like Bush's terms. Lord help us, please............
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend. >>
Not really since silver is more affordable to most people than gold. Silver, the common man's PM!
Plus, silver is used, gold is just held, either as PM, jewelry, etc. Sure there are exceptions, but Gold has been stockpiled by governments since time immortal.
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend. >>
This to me is what is so puzzling about the way these two metals are priced, you have one metal which is used extensively in industry, electronics and the medical field as well as jewelry and is also a monetary metal, it is possibly twice as rare yet it sells for 75-80 times less money...what am I missing here?
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend. >>
I'm coming to believe that it is true.
The numbers on mining since the dawn of recorded history are staggering; some 40 billion ounces of silver have been extracted from the ground and this simply dwarfs the amount of gold. But this silver which has been mined in the last thirty years has all been consumed as quickly as it was mined. When silver mining increased dramat- ically back in the 1870's it started getting used for everything. Huge quantities of sil- ver plate was made and is mouldering in ancient garbage dumps. Even the coinage preferred since time immemorial has been silver and this silver has worn away and been washed down rivers with the dirt from the clothes of workmen. The coins have been lost and destroyed often ending up in the garbage stream.
The reason you see silver is that it's cheap. If it cost $900 an ounce it would be in saf- ety deposit boxes and vaults rather than china cupboards. If man disappeared an al- iens came for archaeological reasons they'd find dozens, even hundreds, of vast stock- piles of gold and small amounts in most households. But they'd find almost no hoards of silver and the little in most households are the minute and unrecoverable amounts in electronic equipment.
Silver will continue to find more uses because it is a very high tech element. It has pro- perties which are wholly unique and its range of uses will continue to grow. Since min- ing can't improve from its recently much lower levels until there is both an economic re- covery and low energy prices the imbalance between gold and silver will grow.
In the long run this situation will be reflected in the price.
This to me is what is so puzzling about the way these two metals are priced, you have one metal which is used extensively in industry, electronics and the medical field as well as jewelry and is also a monetary metal, it is possibly twice as rare yet it sells for 75-80 times less money...what am I missing here?
That's exactly what I'm getting at. If you believe in efficient markets (and I think that the silver market ought to be somewhat efficient), my gut says that if there is such a disparity in price, that the supply has to be reflected in that disparity.
Either that, or this is the best, well-kept secret in monetary history. Either that, or there are alot more economically-ignorant people in the world than there are economically-saavy people in the world.
Any way ya look at it, it's kinda scary.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>This to me is what is so puzzling about the way these two metals are priced, you have one metal which is used extensively in industry, electronics and the medical field as well as jewelry and is also a monetary metal, it is possibly twice as rare yet it sells for 75-80 times less money...what am I missing here?
That's exactly what I'm getting at. If you believe in efficient markets (and I think that the silver market ought to be somewhat efficient), my gut says that if there is such a disparity in price, that the supply has to be reflected in that disparity.
Either that, or this is the best, well-kept secret in monetary history. Either that, or there are alot more economically-ignorant people in the world than there are economically-saavy people in the world.
Any way ya look at it, it's kinda scary. >>
gold will always be gold, silver, silver
cladking has a good explanation (IMO)
most every Central Bank in the world has a depository reserve of gold, and not silver...for a reason
While there was a premium to buy physical gold at $730, that same basic premium is intact at $900+. Certainly you would have pocketed at least 15% from that move in physical gold. The ETF didn't fare a lot better. The real gainers were the gold miners such as KGC, AUY, AEM, RGLD, GG, ABX, and others
<< <i>While there was a premium to buy physical gold at $730, that same basic premium is intact at $900+. Certainly you would have pocketed at least 15% from that move in physical gold. The ETF didn't fare a lot better. The real gainers were the gold miners such as KGC, AUY, AEM, RGLD, GG, ABX, and others Why didn't I pour most of my IRA into a basket of these mining stocks or even GDX? It was pretty apparent that they were severly oversold and at some point would make a dramatic jump up in price, of course I could say that about numerous stocks right now it's just kind of hard to figure out which companies will survive long term as there is so much bad debt floating around today. roadrunner >>
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend. >>
Not really since silver is more affordable to most people than gold. Silver, the common man's PM! >>
What would happen in the unfortunate event that you had to use an ounce of gold to purchase a loaf of bread? Better hope for a lot of the common man's PM to make the change.
They don't want to make money. Money is paper and could become worthless any second now.
Sounds like someone has a vested interest here. Place your bets - I'm betting on physical. You go right ahead and buy the contracts. Knock yerself out.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
even with all the bad news their is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty to the depth of this recession and the speed at which it will get to the bottom and how long it will bump along the bottom, what will start the recovery and at what speed.
<< <i>even with all the bad news their is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty to the depth of this recession and the speed at which it will get to the bottom and how long it will bump along the bottom, what will start the recovery and at what speed. >>
It is only uncertain to those who see through rose colored glasses. That said, financial markets will begin to turn 2-3 quarters before the bad news ends.
That's exactly what I'm getting at. If you believe in efficient markets (and I think that the silver market ought to be somewhat efficient), my gut says that if there is such a disparity in price, that the supply has to be reflected in that disparity.
Either that, or this is the best, well-kept secret in monetary history. Either that, or there are alot more economically-ignorant people in the world than there are economically-saavy people in the world.
Any way ya look at it, it's kinda scary. >>
It is indeed.
But keep in mind that the silver bears and most gold bugs are looking at the same facts from a different perspective. They see silver as being about ten times more com- mon in the earth and being mined at rates that are quadruple gold. While you see a scarce commodity necessary to the operation of the world they see a renewable re- source like oil or wheat. You can always grow more wheat or drill more oil. They won- der why anyone would want to hold on to something as bulky as silver whern thousands of dollars worth of gold will fit into even the smallest safety deposit box.
Much of what humans do is simple inertia. We act on our beliefs and it takes huge changes to affect those beliefs. When silver starts disappearing from sight because it's all getting melted to make blueteeth then perspectives will start shifting; one individual at a time.
If this change occurs suddenly you'll most assuredly want to hold physical metal since most paper silver is issued by those who would go bankrupt almost immediately if the status quo is shaken. You might not only lose the profit but the principle as well. It's better to have a little physical than a lot of paper.
<< <i>They don't want to make money. Money is paper and could become worthless any second now.
Sounds like someone has a vested interest here. Place your bets - I'm betting on physical. You go right ahead and buy the contracts. Knock yerself out. >>
The way the banks have mowed through all that paper money it must be practically worhtless.
Ahhhh! Davos! So pretty this time of the year. The ice skating rink with the picturesque mountain in the background. The corner Backerei with marzipan torte...mmmmm! Oh, and more doom and gloom forecasting from N. Rouibini. From the Davos Forum, NR predicts a synchronization of world economies causing a deep global recession not seen since blan, blah, blah. And he says it will get worse before blah, blah, blah.
To give NR some credit, he was blowing the whistle on our current global crisis the past two forums but no one was listening to him and now they are listening. EF Hutton anyone?
<< <i>even with all the bad news their is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty to the depth of this recession and the speed at which it will get to the bottom and how long it will bump along the bottom, what will start the recovery and at what speed. >>
It is only uncertain to those who see through rose colored glasses. That said, financial markets will begin to turn 2-3 quarters before the bad news ends. >>
maybe we differ on the level of color rose.
i think the financial markets will spin a while....
yet sure wish i had played this mornings "banks" boost
Only 12% of the "stimulus" package is actually towards stimulus. The rest is pork spending. BHO was quoted that he would cut the pork and unnecessary spending. It's like he's taking $825b rider to his $1.2 trillion budget. The wild card for many before he took office was what will he do. I think it's obvious now that we will continue down the debt death spiral...only faster now. Remember when we complained about the deficit being about hundreds of billions...now we get to complain about trillions. This is unsustainable. What will break first....the middle class, the dollar, the country?
p.s. I don't mean to seem insensitive, quite the opposite but we are in the bend over mode now and the only voice you will have will come from your representatives. Of course last year congress only had a 9% public approval rating (I would think even groundhogs could get 9%) but now we have a new crop so maybe they can be more responsive.
Gold futures expiration day came and went with the expected knockdown to under $900 to allow the bullion banks to get out of their shorts. Gold actually behaved rather calmly through all this following the intial $20 smackdown near the opening bell and hanging around in the upper 880's (long term support point). Gold shares only took a rather modest pull back for the most part. This really didn't seem like the start to a typical gold correction more like a half-hearted pull back. Oil, platinum, silver, and palladium all pretty much held their own. I guess the PPT was too busy with rallying the S&P and pushing down gold. Oddly, the dollar tanked until right after the afternoon FOMC announcement that nothing had changed. The USDX went vertical right into the close...as if the PPT noticed they had left the dollar behind in their first busy day with Geithner on board.
I'd look for gold to do some more upside damage in the next 2 weeks. Also note that some of the Asian markets have been on new year's holiday for the past couple of days so the PPT didn't have to worry about bringing gold back down from Asian rising demand as has been the case for much of the past few weeks. But things will be back to normal Thursday/Friday.
You can moan and groan all you like but if you don't do this then you are just yelling into the wind.
I tried that last fall and here's what happened:
Before the first bailout vote in the House, I called my Congressman's office and begged him to vote no and, surprise, he did! The next day, I called his office again and thanked him. A few days later, they had the re-vote (after adding in extra pork) and he switched his vote in favor of the bill. I then called my Congressman's office again and told his staff I would never vote for the SOB again.
<< <i> Also note that some of the Asian markets have been on new year's holiday for the past couple of days so the PPT didn't have to worry about bringing gold back down from Asian rising demand as has been the case for much of the past few weeks. But things will be back to normal Thursday/Friday.
roadrunner >>
Chinese New Year was Monday. it's the rear of the ox. (spelling intentional)
the next year of the dragon is 2012, the only inedible creature of the list....if that means anything (Archie Bunker response)
p.s. I don't mean to seem insensitive, quite the opposite but we are in the bend over mode now and the only voice you will have will come from your representatives. Of course last year congress only had a 9% public approval rating (I would think even groundhogs could get 9%) but now we have a new crop so maybe they can be more responsive. >>
None taken. Thanks for the info. I've had the likes of John McCain on my email list since 2000. He disparaged airline pilots back then so I've had issues with him since. I actually got a hold of K. Salazar-D(CO) last fall to not vote for the bailout. The same man who will be Interior Sec. I do my share but wonder about my affect. Now if millions did this daily it would have an affect.
<< <i> Also note that some of the Asian markets have been on new year's holiday for the past couple of days so the PPT didn't have to worry about bringing gold back down from Asian rising demand as has been the case for much of the past few weeks. But things will be back to normal Thursday/Friday.
roadrunner >>
Chinese New Year was Monday. it's the rear of the ox. (spelling intentional)
the next year of the dragon is 2012, the only inedible creature of the list....if that means anything (Archie Bunker response) >>
Why cant you eat dragon? Probably tastes like chicken.
Interests rates were over 8% and the New Zealand dollar was worth 0.83 US dollars when I first started my campaign to illustrate this financial crisis was global in scope. Holders of this paper have been obliterated as rates are now 3.5% and the $NZ is worth 0.51 USD.
I wish I was a betting man. Like taking candy from a baby. I apologize, I just couldnt resist. Think I would have collected?
4-24-08........."Unlike the US, New Zealand's responsible central bank doesn't bail out banks and speculators with panicked rate cuts. I'll be happy to place a bet on the kiwi against the dollar if you want. How about a time frame of a year and let's put a grand up. "
Is it possible to catch the cat and kill it once it is out of the bag?
A better question might be who is left holding the bag?
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Draft legislation that would change how over-the-counter derivatives are regulated might prohibit most trading in the $29 trillion credit-default swap market.
House of Representatives Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson of Minnesota circulated an updated draft bill yesterday that would ban credit-default swap trading unless investors owned the underlying bonds. The document, distributed by e-mail by the committee staff in Washington, would also force U.S. trading in the $684 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market to be processed by a clearinghouse.
“This would basically kill the single-name CDS market,” said Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California. “Given the small size of many issuers’ bonds outstanding, this would make it practically impossible for the CDS market to exist.”
Hedge funds offer to price in gold ByJames Mackintosh and Javier Blas
Published: January 29 2009 00:15 | Last updated: January 29 2009 00:15
A hedge fund has begun offering investors the chance to have their investment denominated in gold, as worries grow over governments debasing their currencies by printing money.
Osmium Capital Management, a $178m hedge fund manager based in Bermuda, is launching a new share class allowing investors to hold shares measured as troy ounces of the fund, rather than US dollars, sterling or euros.
Comments
And, of course, for the past eight years, the MoveOn.org crowd has been rooting for George Bush to be a rousing success.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Oh yeah! It is very difficult to not discuss the greatest movement of the political center in the modern history of the U.S. congress. Believe me, I have plenty of opinion about our situation but for naught, it is simply my opinion and I did vote. It is exceptionally hard to keep your opinions to yourself, particularly when we are all very comfortable discussing divergent, digressive topics with each other and this is frustrating not being able to address this issue in our forum. Carol et al has given us a lot of room for our open discussions and we have all benefited from this opportunity socially, financially and philosophically. Hopefully the moderators will give us a little slack as we find our footing given the situation we find ourselves in.
But, we simply can not get into the discussion of BHO and his people. It is very hard not to because we can all see it, we can all just wonder and we so want to talk about it but this is not the place and maybe even not the time. Also, regardless of anyones opinion, the executive and his congress were rightfully elected by the vote of the people and that is what it is and that's what it is. Remember Bob Dylan's chorus, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." if you need to find reassurance in your perceptions.
We have had some threads deleted here recently and I think that should be good evidence of just where the line is. The line is that we simply do not discuss politics here and even discussions about policy may be a bit of bad form considering the purpose of this forum and the fact that we have many lurkers from other forums other places that do read us and look in on our discussions and they also must be respected. On the other hand, discussing how to benefit from or make a profit from these policies and politics should be both an open topic and one that we should promote in this thread and forum; there are plenty of excellent strategists here and we can all benefit. Remember, there is always exceptional opportunity in chaos. It may be good to not ever even mention BHO here because of the extreme political polarization that is going to happen in the very near future, it will be very dramatic ala 1969. I guess that old saw about If you have to think about the appropriateness of an act or action, you should probably abandon it right there because it probably has no place here.
Oh well, I'm not telling people what to do nor do I think that I am in any way trying to influence the discussions here but we will just have to keep our political bias to ourselves and our private conversations or we're going to be missing something that we have all enjoyed very much.
That is all. Please return to your regularly scheduled programming.
Moving your wealth laterally to gold is non-beneficial to the GOVT comrades and it would not suprise me if fundamentals get materially weaker and the move accelerates then curbs will be instituted. Like the 'PATRIOT ACT' whereby restrictions were placed on those dealers redeeming your precious metals. What good would gold be..........if withholding(i.e.) tax were required when you redeem.
I see many clouds on the horizon. The storm is within sight.
you need....
1. income
2. no debt
3. a skill(s)
4. assets
5. equity
and a little luck.
To get it back on topic, yes, I am one of those folks that is scared to death of the trillion-dollar deficits that are starting to appear. While the CBO says things will calm down and "only" $3 trillion will be added to the deficit over the next ten years, the Concord Coalition estimates it at just over $10 trillion additional debt by 2020 (and even that's conservative). That's why my wife and I recently refinanced our mortgage to a 5% fixed and, a few months ago, using some of her inheritance from her father's estate, we finally picked up some gold bullion and tucked it away in the SDB. Things are certainly going to get a whole lot uglier but at least we sleep a little better at night now.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
<< <i>I apologize for injecting politics into this thread and will refrain from such comments in the future. However, I do get rather aggravated with the smart-alecky left-wing comments that appear now and then.
To get it back on topic, yes, I am one of those folks that is scared to death of the trillion-dollar deficits that are starting to appear. While the CBO says things will calm down and "only" $3 trillion will be added to the deficit over the next ten years, the Concord Coalition estimates it at just over $10 trillion additional debt by 2020 (and even that's conservative). That's why my wife and I recently refinanced our mortgage to a 5% fixed and, a few months ago, using some of her inheritance from her father's estate, we finally picked up some gold bullion and tucked it away in the SDB. Things are certainly going to get a whole lot uglier but at least we sleep a little better at night now. >>
Oh quite trying to make us feel better. I read the debt from nation hood to Reagan and was quite surprised. You say only 3 trillon in ten years? That really makes me feel better...maybe you should go and see what that number is. I'm afraid that the policies made today are going to be talked about just like Bush's terms. Lord help us, please............
Camelot
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend.
Not really since silver is more affordable to most people than gold. Silver, the common man's PM!
<< <i>Let's say I wanted to believe Rich Dad, do you buy paper silver or bullion? >>
Never buy paper. You don't own it unless you have it. Physical all the way.
FOR SALE Items
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's say I wanted to believe Rich Dad, do you buy paper silver or bullion? >>
Never buy paper. You don't own it unless you have it. Physical all the way.
If you bought physical over the last few months you havent made a dime. If you bought paper you would be up 30%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's say I wanted to believe Rich Dad, do you buy paper silver or bullion? >>
Never buy paper. You don't own it unless you have it. Physical all the way.
If you bought physical over the last few months you havent made a dime. If you bought paper you would be up 30%. >>
Mmm ... lets see ... Nov 3..gold price was $730........January 26 .. $900.....
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's say I wanted to believe Rich Dad, do you buy paper silver or bullion? >>
Never buy paper. You don't own it unless you have it. Physical all the way.
If you bought physical over the last few months you havent made a dime. If you bought paper you would be up 30%. >>
Mmm ... lets see ... Nov 3..gold price was $730........January 26 .. $900..... >>
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend.
This to me is what is so puzzling about the way these two metals are priced, you have one metal which is used extensively in industry, electronics and the medical field as well as jewelry and is also a monetary metal, it is possibly twice as rare yet it sells for 75-80 times less money...what am I missing here?
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend.
I'm coming to believe that it is true.
The numbers on mining since the dawn of recorded history are staggering; some 40
billion ounces of silver have been extracted from the ground and this simply dwarfs
the amount of gold. But this silver which has been mined in the last thirty years has
all been consumed as quickly as it was mined. When silver mining increased dramat-
ically back in the 1870's it started getting used for everything. Huge quantities of sil-
ver plate was made and is mouldering in ancient garbage dumps. Even the coinage
preferred since time immemorial has been silver and this silver has worn away and been
washed down rivers with the dirt from the clothes of workmen. The coins have been
lost and destroyed often ending up in the garbage stream.
The reason you see silver is that it's cheap. If it cost $900 an ounce it would be in saf-
ety deposit boxes and vaults rather than china cupboards. If man disappeared an al-
iens came for archaeological reasons they'd find dozens, even hundreds, of vast stock-
piles of gold and small amounts in most households. But they'd find almost no hoards
of silver and the little in most households are the minute and unrecoverable amounts in
electronic equipment.
Silver will continue to find more uses because it is a very high tech element. It has pro-
perties which are wholly unique and its range of uses will continue to grow. Since min-
ing can't improve from its recently much lower levels until there is both an economic re-
covery and low energy prices the imbalance between gold and silver will grow.
In the long run this situation will be reflected in the price.
That's exactly what I'm getting at. If you believe in efficient markets (and I think that the silver market ought to be somewhat efficient), my gut says that if there is such a disparity in price, that the supply has to be reflected in that disparity.
Either that, or this is the best, well-kept secret in monetary history. Either that, or there are alot more economically-ignorant people in the world than there are economically-saavy people in the world.
Any way ya look at it, it's kinda scary.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's say I wanted to believe Rich Dad, do you buy paper silver or bullion? >>
Never buy paper. You don't own it unless you have it. Physical all the way.
If you bought physical over the last few months you havent made a dime. If you bought paper you would be up 30%. >>
Mmm ... lets see ... Nov 3..gold price was $730........January 26 .. $900..... >>
Exactly!!! I was refering to silver, but gold will work also. Please tell me how you could have bought physical gold at $730? Please.
I will answer for you. You couldnt. You could have purchased the paper though and made money.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>This to me is what is so puzzling about the way these two metals are priced, you have one metal which is used extensively in industry, electronics and the medical field as well as jewelry and is also a monetary metal, it is possibly twice as rare yet it sells for 75-80 times less money...what am I missing here?
That's exactly what I'm getting at. If you believe in efficient markets (and I think that the silver market ought to be somewhat efficient), my gut says that if there is such a disparity in price, that the supply has to be reflected in that disparity.
Either that, or this is the best, well-kept secret in monetary history. Either that, or there are alot more economically-ignorant people in the world than there are economically-saavy people in the world.
Any way ya look at it, it's kinda scary.
gold will always be gold, silver, silver
cladking has a good explanation (IMO)
most every Central Bank in the world has a depository reserve of gold, and not silver...for a reason
roadrunner
<< <i>While there was a premium to buy physical gold at $730, that same basic premium is intact at $900+. Certainly you would have pocketed at least 15% from that move in physical gold. The ETF didn't fare a lot better. The real gainers were the gold miners such as KGC, AUY, AEM, RGLD, GG, ABX, and others
Why didn't I pour most of my IRA into a basket of these mining stocks or even GDX? It was pretty apparent that they were severly oversold and at some point would make a dramatic jump up in price, of course I could say that about numerous stocks right now it's just kind of hard to figure out which companies will survive long term as there is so much bad debt floating around today.
roadrunner >>
<< <i>
<< <i>I still can't wrap my brain around the thought that there is less physical silver than there is physical gold to be had in the world at this time.
It may be true, it may not be true - but either way, it is hard to comprehend.
Not really since silver is more affordable to most people than gold. Silver, the common man's PM!
What would happen in the unfortunate event that you had to use an ounce of gold to purchase a loaf of bread? Better hope for a lot of the common man's PM to make the change.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>You could have purchased the paper though and made money >>
They don't want to make money. Money is paper and could become worthless any second now.
CG
Sounds like someone has a vested interest here. Place your bets - I'm betting on physical. You go right ahead and buy the contracts. Knock yerself out.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>even with all the bad news their is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty to the depth of this recession and the speed at which it will get to the bottom and how long it will bump along the bottom, what will start the recovery and at what speed. >>
It is only uncertain to those who see through rose colored glasses. That said, financial markets will begin to turn 2-3 quarters before the bad news ends.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
That's exactly what I'm getting at. If you believe in efficient markets (and I think that the silver market ought to be somewhat efficient), my gut says that if there is such a disparity in price, that the supply has to be reflected in that disparity.
Either that, or this is the best, well-kept secret in monetary history. Either that, or there are alot more economically-ignorant people in the world than there are economically-saavy people in the world.
Any way ya look at it, it's kinda scary.
It is indeed.
But keep in mind that the silver bears and most gold bugs are looking at the same
facts from a different perspective. They see silver as being about ten times more com-
mon in the earth and being mined at rates that are quadruple gold. While you see a
scarce commodity necessary to the operation of the world they see a renewable re-
source like oil or wheat. You can always grow more wheat or drill more oil. They won-
der why anyone would want to hold on to something as bulky as silver whern thousands
of dollars worth of gold will fit into even the smallest safety deposit box.
Much of what humans do is simple inertia. We act on our beliefs and it takes huge changes
to affect those beliefs. When silver starts disappearing from sight because it's all getting
melted to make blueteeth then perspectives will start shifting; one individual at a time.
If this change occurs suddenly you'll most assuredly want to hold physical metal since most
paper silver is issued by those who would go bankrupt almost immediately if the status quo
is shaken. You might not only lose the profit but the principle as well. It's better to have a
little physical than a lot of paper.
<< <i>They don't want to make money. Money is paper and could become worthless any second now.
Sounds like someone has a vested interest here. Place your bets - I'm betting on physical. You go right ahead and buy the contracts. Knock yerself out. >>
The way the banks have mowed through all that paper money it must be practically worhtless.
printed money in the morning.....Is smells like,
VICTORY!"
Camelot
To give NR some credit, he was blowing the whistle on our current global crisis the past two forums but no one was listening to him and now they are listening. EF Hutton anyone?
Ren
<< <i>
<< <i>even with all the bad news their is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty to the depth of this recession and the speed at which it will get to the bottom and how long it will bump along the bottom, what will start the recovery and at what speed. >>
It is only uncertain to those who see through rose colored glasses. That said, financial markets will begin to turn 2-3 quarters before the bad news ends. >>
maybe we differ on the level of color rose.
i think the financial markets will spin a while....
yet sure wish i had played this mornings "banks" boost
Ren
You can moan and groan all you like but if you don't do this then you are just yelling into the wind. Call your congressman and stop whinin'
p.s. I don't mean to seem insensitive, quite the opposite but we are in the bend over mode now and the only voice you will have will come from your representatives. Of course last year congress only had a 9% public approval rating (I would think even groundhogs could get 9%) but now we have a new crop so maybe they can be more responsive.
untill they are Nationalized and the stock and bond holder
will be left with NADA!
Camelot
I'd look for gold to do some more upside damage in the next 2 weeks. Also note that some of the Asian markets have been on new year's holiday for the past couple of days so the PPT didn't have to worry about bringing gold back down from Asian rising demand as has been the case for much of the past few weeks. But things will be back to normal Thursday/Friday.
roadrunner
I tried that last fall and here's what happened:
Before the first bailout vote in the House, I called my Congressman's office and begged him to vote no and, surprise, he did! The next day, I called his office again and thanked him. A few days later, they had the re-vote (after adding in extra pork) and he switched his vote in favor of the bill. I then called my Congressman's office again and told his staff I would never vote for the SOB again.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
<< <i>
Also note that some of the Asian markets have been on new year's holiday for the past couple of days so the PPT didn't have to worry about bringing gold back down from Asian rising demand as has been the case for much of the past few weeks. But things will be back to normal Thursday/Friday.
roadrunner >>
Chinese New Year was Monday. it's the rear of the ox. (spelling intentional)
the next year of the dragon is 2012, the only inedible creature of the list....if that means anything (Archie Bunker response)
<< <i>"Only 12% of the "stimulus" package is actually towards stimulus."
You can moan and groan all you like but if you don't do this then you are just yelling into the wind. Call your congressman and stop whinin'
p.s. I don't mean to seem insensitive, quite the opposite but we are in the bend over mode now and the only voice you will have will come from your representatives. Of course last year congress only had a 9% public approval rating (I would think even groundhogs could get 9%) but now we have a new crop so maybe they can be more responsive. >>
None taken. Thanks for the info. I've had the likes of John McCain on my email list since 2000. He disparaged airline pilots back then so I've had issues with him since. I actually got a hold of K. Salazar-D(CO) last fall to not vote for the bailout. The same man who will be Interior Sec. I do my share but wonder about my affect. Now if millions did this daily it would have an affect.
Ren
<< <i>
<< <i>
Also note that some of the Asian markets have been on new year's holiday for the past couple of days so the PPT didn't have to worry about bringing gold back down from Asian rising demand as has been the case for much of the past few weeks. But things will be back to normal Thursday/Friday.
roadrunner >>
Chinese New Year was Monday. it's the rear of the ox. (spelling intentional)
the next year of the dragon is 2012, the only inedible creature of the list....if that means anything (Archie Bunker response) >>
Why cant you eat dragon? Probably tastes like chicken.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
New Zealand Cuts Key Interest Rate to Record-Low 3.5%
I wish I was a betting man.
4-24-08........."Unlike the US, New Zealand's responsible central bank doesn't bail out banks and speculators with panicked rate cuts. I'll be happy to place a bet on the kiwi against the dollar if you want. How about a time frame of a year and let's put a grand up. "
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>"There is nothing better, then the smell of fresh
printed money in the morning..... >>
...and it can be as explosive as napalm.
Is it possible to catch the cat and kill it once it is out of the bag?
A better question might be who is left holding the bag?
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Draft legislation that would change how over-the-counter derivatives are regulated might prohibit most trading in the $29 trillion credit-default swap market.
House of Representatives Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson of Minnesota circulated an updated draft bill yesterday that would ban credit-default swap trading unless investors owned the underlying bonds. The document, distributed by e-mail by the committee staff in Washington, would also force U.S. trading in the $684 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market to be processed by a clearinghouse.
“This would basically kill the single-name CDS market,” said Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California. “Given the small size of many issuers’ bonds outstanding, this would make it practically impossible for the CDS market to exist.”
Hedge funds offer to price in gold
ByJames Mackintosh and Javier Blas
Published: January 29 2009 00:15 | Last updated: January 29 2009 00:15
A hedge fund has begun offering investors the chance to have their investment denominated in gold, as worries grow over governments debasing their currencies by printing money.
Osmium Capital Management, a $178m hedge fund manager based in Bermuda, is launching a new share class allowing investors to hold shares measured as troy ounces of the fund, rather than US dollars, sterling or euros.