10,000? I think you jumped the gun. We need to fill out page number 200 (x50). Several pages to go.
But your participation is appreciated. Sorry Charlie....only the choicest of tuna are selected for Starkist. I would think that the 10,000th post should be reserved for the man who started this all......Goldsaint. I don't think we'll be here at post number 20,000 to go it all again.
ebaytrader, what part of the following don't you understand?
The choice we face is ominous: We either accept world-wide authoritarian government holding together a flawed system, OR we restore the principles of the Constitution, limit government power, restore commodity money without a Federal Reserve system, reject world government, and promote the cause of peace by protecting liberty equally for all persons. Freedom is the answer.
Be careful what you wish for. We're already over halfway there. >>
The question is: What don't you understand? >>
What I understand is that folks such as you, ebaytrader, are obviously just flat out ignorant or brainwashed or both... and it is very sad...
There is little reason for anyone to attempt to hold an intelligent conversation with you... I have read many of your posts over time...and like many on the forums... you seem to have your head firmly planted in a dark smelly place and are intent on defiantly keeping it there... so be it... >>
Connecting a Windows PC to the Internet is like dressing in hundred-dollar bills and taking a walk in a bad neighborhood.
A shortened version of a fable that has been making the rounds of the websites. This alteration from runtogold.com.
Millions Of Buffalo Pies
A long time ago a charming and respectable man appeared in a small village and announced he would buy buffalo or cow pies for $1 each.
The inhabitants, seeing that there were many buffalo and cow pies lying around, went about gathering them up. The man bought thousands at $1. As the immediate supply began to diminish the villagers stopped their effort.
The man then announced he would pay $5 each. This increased price drew out more supply as the villagers ventured further away from the village to collect buffalo and cow pies. Predictably the supply diminished even further and buffalo and cow pies became even rarer.
The man then increased his offer to $10 per buffalo or cow pie. The inhabitants started searching everywhere but could rarely find any buffalo or cow pies. They had become extremely scarce!
The man had to go to a neighboring town to complete some business. Nevertheless, he left an assistant in charge of acquiring more buffalo and cow pies along with an astounding offer of $40 each. After the man left the assistant told the villagers, “Can you believe all the buffalo and cow pies in this man’s giant collector bin? I will sell you all the buffalo and cow pies at a mere $25 each and then you can sell them to the man for $40 each when he returns.” The inhabitants rounded up all $700B of their savings in the CRAPs fund and purchased all the buffalo and cow pies. Then the assistant skipped town and neither he nor the man have been seen since. No one sincerely wants to know how many buffalo and cow pies everyone else owns. Ignorance is bliss and denial is fun.
I liked the discussion between $LA and RR regarding fundamentals v.s. technicals, it was a good little exchange and a model for discourse. It got me to thinking about metal and money and where to next. I like having the metal, it has and I suspect will continue to do it's job; keeping an even keel on the personal financial boat. When you think about it, we are very privileged to be able to have enough spare frn's to be able to put a little metal in the box and we should appreciate the privilege. A privilege is defined as a right or immunity granted as a particular benefit, advantage, or favor...and so it is, the right to hold gold.
Gold has done its job, it has kept us even and not in the loser column. The pundits that have an opinin about the value of gold are just people yelling into the wind. Gold is a protector of wealth. We have read the prognostications about $5000 gold and $500 gold, there are plenty of opinions but they are all for naught. Gold is a protector of wealth apart from all other forms of exchange. We are witnessing how gold has stood alone in a collapsing stockmarket, alone and apart from the bank failures, separate from the scams and ripoffs of the financial industry, gold has stood singularly alone as a protector of wealth.
People argue that gold is just a commodity and will track with other commodities...not true as evidenced by the plummeting of steel, aluminum, oil, gasoline, etc. on the commodities exchanges, all the while gold held the line and traded right in it's established range. Gold may be traded as a commodity but only in so much as it has industrial and utilitarian applications like jewelry, conductivity, maleability and the like. Apart from the minor commodity aspects of gold, it is above all and foremost an immutable asset coveted around the world as a foundation for wealth. People with an opinion can call it this and call it that but that doesn't change value or function of gold.
We hear the discussions of trading in and out of gold on paper, the Kitco site is awash with the promoters and nay-sayers alike, all strong in their beliefs and sure of their position but it's not the same. Paper is paper and physical metal is physical metal and the two are not the same as evidenced by the premiums for physical over paper; physical gold has no peer either in paper, currency, stocks, or any of the other ways to play with gold other than actually having physical metal. I suspect that very few people run down and buy 20 ozers one day and take them back a few weeks later when the price is higher...I guess it could happen but it certainly doesn't seem very practical for just a few buks. It's the holding of the physical metal that has the sustainable value, not any other form or variation on the theme.
The 5% rule for holding gold in your portfolio is a ruse. 5% of anything will do nothing for you, it will not save you it will not make you money, it will not protect your portfolio; 5% is nothing but lip service to the question "Shouldn't I have some gold?" If you choose gold as your secret weapon then you need enough of your portfolio committed to the metal to do you some actual good. So, what's a reasonable amount...methinks 20% as a minimum and in practice, that's about where it is for me. What's your downside risk if you steadily accumulate as in adding to your savings account...none it seems. What's your upside benefit...none it seems because other than short lived spikes and dips that are fodder for players, gold is an even exchange for goods and services apart from what ever the currency implications may be about how many dollars something costs. The upside benefit is that you don't lose anything. Gold is stability, it is neither loss of gain, it is a protector of your standard of living. So when the market dips, not to worry, when gold rises, hey...no big deal because you are neither making or losing money until you exchange the metal for something else like currency and when you do exchange it you are doing so at a rate equivilent to the value of physical gold.
Gold as a protector if things get wacky is also hard to swallow. If things get wacky, gold is going to be the very least of your worries. You can't eat it, you could make bullets or arrow heads from it maybe, you could throw it at an attacker, you could maybe exchange it for something you could use to some guy that wants it to throw at someone...gold is only valuable in a society that can use gold as wealth, aside from the commodity value of the metal proper. When you are hunting squirrels for food, gold is going to do you very little good. No one is going to need gold if it gets to $5000, they are going to be much more satisfied with a bowl of grits and some bacon grease than you are with a pocket full of some kind of currency backed by the full faith of some government that has collapsed. Gold will not do anyone much good if the society descends into barbarism or if there is a nuclear war, it only is of value in a functioning world economy with stable exchanges and universal acceptance of it's value. By the same rationale, frn's will do you little good in barbarous times either. We don't want $5000 gold anymore than we want $32 gold, we want gold to trade in a rational range and be very liquid in exchange for currency, goods, and services. Gold is good only when it is rational.
In reflection, it has been a comfort to reach into the box and pull out a few ozers and trade them for frn's when I needed some cash, just as it has been a comfort to have a few extra buks to accumulate some more for the next time I might need a little boost. I don't play gold, I accumulate the metal. I am not a hoarder and I would not hesitate to dip into my stash when I need a little cash any more than I would hesitate to put some extra buks right back into metal when times are good. Gold is stability and it will be in '09 just as it was in '08; you can use what ever first two digits you want here, 17, 18, 19, 20, etc.
Nice summary mhammerman. The pro-gold crowd already understand the concepts. But unfortunately the fiat crowd will only agree on one thing in your post......"you can't eat gold."
I also agree that the 5% diversification figure is way too light. 5% is enough to get someone across a border or cover near-term expenses should $LA's nuclear scenarios come to pass. But for benefit during these unstable times, I would agree with the 20-35% ratio, with higher being better. Since the FED/Banks are now actually paying net negative interest to hold treasuries, owning gold makes even more sense.
Be careful what you wish for. One pithy set of comments from RYK and/or Longace and we could have a stampede on our hands with 300 posts in a day or two.
I found this linked over at the GIM site. While I do recall seeing this 3 wave business cycle chart once before, I never paid it any mind, until today. This article is from 1999 and properly back fit all the previous American business cycles into neat 8.6 year bundles. The accuracy is quite compelling. I flipped back to the late 1700's and the well known panics and other recessions/depressions/booms all lined up. The author spent years deciphering data. As to where 8.6 yrs comes from? It seems to conflict with cycles of 10 yr lengths until one considers 10 Kress cycles of 6 yrs each as well as the more familiar wave cycles of 60 and 120 years. The author notes that the 8.6 yr cycle = 3,141 days (with 2 leap yr days) with the latter number being pi x 1000. Interesting stuff.
From 1999 to 2008 the trend still holds up as I went back through DJIA data to confirm it. While the Dow peaks may not always coincide with our own personal "peaks" in each cycle, the Dow did indeed peak or bottom at the points on the chart (Nov 2002 bot, Jan 2005 peak, Jan 2006 bot, Feb 2007 peak, Mar 2008 bottom). The next data points call for 4/19/09 peak, 6/14/11 bot, June 2013 peak.
The 2008 stock market crash is obviously not forecasted as a bottom and who can blame the author if he didn't plan on $1 QUAD in derivatives and multiple major bank failures back in 1999. And in 1999 the author was well versed on the leveraged failures of LTCM and other early dabblers in risky derivatives back in 1998. But the potential bright side is a stronger Dow by April 2009, exactly the opposite of what most people are feeling though a number of analysts have felt that a Dow recovery by March is well due. But inevitably, a 26 month fall to follow that...and then begin a new up cycle in mid-2013...assuming you have confidence in the data presented. One has to wonder if excessive govt intervention can ultimately disrupt the cycle trends. So far they've held up.
The author mentioned his prediction in late 1976 that an inflationary turnaround was coming following the then-current recessionary period, when many others were calling for depression. Curiously, that same cycle point would equate to 6/14/2011....2-1/2 yrs away. That would better coincide with what Cohodk, MoneyLA, and others have been predicting.
Thanks for the link Roadrunner. I had never seen it, but it does play much into my cycles idea and the time intervals also match up well. I had always used 16 and 24 years as my cycle--interesting how they are both roughly divisible by 8.6.
I am disconcerted by his mention of Russia and China. As I have written many times, I also view these 2 superpowers as a very serious threat to global stability. Russia has the resources and China the manpower. A lethal combination.
But perhaps more worrisome is the idea that the cycle ends on Christmas Eve 2032. Too much religious implication and that is just before I am scheduled to receive my first social security check.
Edited to add.....Armstrong uses 2008.225 to mark a bottom. This obviously wasnt the bottom for the US stock market, but 2008.225 was March 23rd. The US dollar bottomed on March 17.
More homework......There is a gold bottomed at 255 on Feb 20, 2001. 8.6 years into the future is about Oct 1 2009. However there is a low of 252.50 on Aug 25, 1999. 8.6 years into the future is about March 5, 2008. Gold topped at 1033.90 on March 17, 2008
Why does the U.S. and Russia have such an odd relationship? Russia is our enemy when we're at peace with them. When there's a world war we both fight on the same side. When the war's over they're our enemy again.
Thanks for those gold anchor points Cohodk. Something to keep an eye on going forward. And it does seem we just saw the tip of the 5th wave up to $890. The end of year sellers are booking profits and/or losses and moving out. No doubt the PPT minions are riding on the coat tails to provide some windage. The commerical banks had added a ton of shorts to their columns recently.
Edited to add.....Armstrong uses 2008.225 to mark a bottom. This obviously wasnt the bottom for the US stock market, but 2008.225 was March 23rd. The US dollar bottomed on March 17.
In analyzing Armstrong's calls I compared off a simple monthly DOW spreadsheet. If his high was within a week or two of the actual DOW high/low I gave him credit for the call. Logically, I don't think anyone can predict years out, to the day (or even the week) when a peak or bottom is due in. Still, I was surprised to the see the data fall within the same month or so very consistently. His call of March 22, 2008 for a Dow bottom was a couple of weeks late. The Dow reached a protracted bottom in Feb to early March. While he called for a January 2007 top which did happen (interim top), he missed the ultimate peak that grew from Feb to Oct 2007. Possibly that final growth spurt was not from the standard business cycle but from a 45% increase in leveraged financial products as the businesses were looking for whatever means to keep the financial boom going in the wake of a sputtering housing market....the final boom in derivatives growth.
1. Gold ended at $879 in NYC which exceed the 2007 end of year by 5.5% as well as average yearly levels by a wider margin. 7 years in a row ending higher. Sounds like a secular bull market to me! A barbarous performance if there ever was one. I'm very surprised that the PPT didn't take it a step further today when they had gold running down overseas to under $860 via the London JPM offices, and this after pushing gold down incrementally from $890 two sessions earlier. It seemed very likely they were going to pound it down further in New York this morning but they got outplayed after their initial push down to $855. From their a pretty strong recovery to $880+ while the dollar was ramping up as well. PPTers had a golden opportunity to get gold under the Dec 31, 2007 close and keep goldbugs from claiming a 7th straight year in the black. I was stunned the PPT lost the handle on this one or just decided to sleep in today to get ready to watch the 30 hours of Twilight Zone re-runs. It seemed everything rallied up today: stocks, oil, gold, silver, dollar, etc. Then again, maybe it was more important for them to get stocks up on a roll going into 2009. If not today PPT, then when? Seemed like a perfect opportunity....unless the boyz are too low on gold derivatives, naked shorts, or physical gold to throw back into the mix.
2. Dow/gold finished at <10.0 (9.98) following a strong 2 day rally in stocks and a surprise $30 rally by gold from 10 am on. It did not seem like that was going to happen at mid-morning today and it appeared to be a shoe-in a couple of days ago.
3. The gold thread easily beat out Dow by a wide margin, with Google bringing up the rear. Anyone for Google vs palladium?
4. Gold up 5.5% yoy with the US Dollar Index up also in the 5% range.....while DOW and most stock indicies down nearly 30-40% yoy.
5. After being slammed down some 60% from its peak, the HUI unhedged gold shares recovered to be down 26% yoy....still better than the general stock market.
<< <i>Thanks for the link Roadrunner. I had never seen it, but it does play much into my cycles idea and the time intervals also match up well. I had always used 16 and 24 years as my cycle--interesting how they are both roughly divisible by 8.6.
I am disconcerted by his mention of Russia and China. As I have written many times, I also view these 2 superpowers as a very serious threat to global stability. Russia has the resources and China the manpower. A lethal combination.
But perhaps more worrisome is the idea that the cycle ends on Christmas Eve 2032. Too much religious implication and that is just before I am scheduled to receive my first social security check.
Edited to add.....Armstrong uses 2008.225 to mark a bottom. This obviously wasnt the bottom for the US stock market, but 2008.225 was March 23rd. The US dollar bottomed on March 17.
More homework......There is a gold bottomed at 255 on Feb 20, 2001. 8.6 years into the future is about Oct 1 2009. However there is a low of 252.50 on Aug 25, 1999. 8.6 years into the future is about March 5, 2008. Gold topped at 1033.90 on March 17, 2008 >>
Thanks for the info. I love this kind of speculation and prediction based on human trends, traits, habits or whatever. I feel that this particular trend/cycle may not hold up due to the unforeseen trillions of dollars being pumped into our system this year and next.
Senior analyst Jon Nadler at Kitco Bullion Dealers provides projections for gold prices in 2009: "The trading range will likely remain as wide as this year’s $350 while volatility will remain an integral part of daily, weekly, and monthly swings. Prices might touch $630 on the low side and $980 on the high side - however, factor in some imponderables (severe deflation and/or catastrophic geopolitical developments) and one could augment either end of the scale by $100. Barring the latter, the average gold price will likely register near $810 per ounce, following its $871 average for the current year."
He actually gets paid for that! Where do I go to sign up?
Nadler's gold call for 2009: $530 to $1080. Nothing like covering the bases. Looks like he's intent on keeping his readers out of gold for another year....Don Cartello approves. Now speaking of the cartel......
Rob Kirby points out that in the 3rd Qtr of 2008 when gold took a massive and immediate pounding, JPM added $15 BILL notional in gold "paper" derivatives to their books, a 26.6% increase in <1 yr maturities (+15% in their overall derivative's maturities). That's the equivalent of around 500 tons (16 MILL oz) of physical gold being dumped on the market to help depress pricing. Kirby indicates that it takes fuel to force a $200 drop in the gold market (ie JPMorgan Chase’s gold derivatives book increased by $15 billion in three months was the fuel). With capital being scarce everywhere, JPM saw fit to use $15 BILL in gold derivatives to short gold futures into the ground over 3 months. Thanks to Rob Kirby for providing the above clarification. No physical gold needed. Just paper.
JPM would probably tell you they purchased those derivatives for "stabilizing" the dollar rather than to crush gold, the more obvious and likely objective. JPM carries a total of $100 BILL in gold derivatives which is about 79% of the listed amount among the 5 major bank derivative's holders. HSBC is the only other top 5 with a substantial holding ($24 BILL or 19%). Look no further than those 2 as far as to who can move the paper gold market. JPM=Treasury=FED.
Another interesting point from the 3Q derivatives stats is that the top 5 US banks only reduced their published derivatives exposure from 2nd to 3rd Qtr a measly 4%. JPM reduced from $91 TRILL to $87 TRILL. BOA and Citigroup still have $35-$39 TRILL each. Still a lot to be wrung out here.
While applauding the continuing efforts of deflationists like Rick Ackerman and Mike (Mish) Shedlock, Willie contends that they along with most deflationists have failed to include several key items in money supplies and velocities. Those items include the massive flows in derivatives and CDS's that have funded banks for the past decade, the frequent trading of gold and silver futures derivatives (ironic since Au and Ag are money), the massive flows (velocity) of money into treasuries over the past few months, and the hundreds of billions of dollars that Wall Street is sucking out of the peripheral economy (money flows). Without considering these key factors which are not part of traditional Keynesian theory, Willie concludes that they have missed something quite large by being hung up on what has happened solely in the contracting outer economy. The Ponzi financial sector is something Keynes never got to experience. Maybe he would have modified his theories somewhat had he seen it.
A final point is that if deflation is truly occurring rather than just credit and asset contraction (not monetary) why did gold stabilize in the $700 range rather than being beat down to $400-$500 where it should have gone in deflationary unison to oil, copper, and other commodities. To make matters worse for the deflationist, gold has strengthened into the upper $800's and has been showing a number of signs of technical reversal (see Willie's charts of MACD crossing, rising moving averages and RSI, etc.). This is not the behavior of a deflationary metal. Recall that gold is also a leading indicator prior to inflationary forces showing up across the economy (2002-2003) - it's the alarm to get our attention when things are out of whack. It looks to be alarming now.
Would the FED and Treasury want everyone to be thinking of deflation or inflation at least until the near future? Are their pet policies more easily supported under fear of D or I? When the FED says look "here".....we all should probably be looking elsewhere.
The big question is: Where's the cash? While M-1 zooms with a rocket trajectory, MZM has barely moved. We can't have inflation without the $$$ and they're not making their way into our pockets.
The big question is: Where's the cash? While M-1 zooms with a rocket trajectory, MZM has barely moved. We can't have inflation without the $$$ and they're not making their way into our pockets.
This would be the Keynesian response. The question is do his theories, originally put together to support the socialistic agenda and fund Keynesian "economic" research, even hold water today?
The dollars don't have to be in yours or the public's pocket, as long as they are out there somewhere in another person's pockets. And that money can be used to chase whatever asset the owner chooses. We have both deflationary (money not in the public's pocket) and inflationary aspects (money in their pocket) of the current economy. And as Willie has described the real significant money flows of the past decade swirl around the peripherals of the mainstream/mainstreet economy. They don't show up in standard M analysis since they came in the back door ("double booked" as Willie calls it).
The Trends Research Institute: Gerald Celente - The world leader in trend forecasting delivers concise, deployable success strategies to corporate clients . www.trendsresearch.com
the sky is falling type of guy---- but you never can be too careful.
While we alone predicted the “Panic of ’08” (and even took out the domain name “Panicof08.com” on November 7, 2007), we are not alone in predicting a Depression.
Interesting link but a paid subscription site apparently.
I've seen references to Celente from time to time but nothing that presented anything different than what you typically see on the links I have listed in my sig line. He wasn't the only one calling for a 2008 panic as JS was stating "this is it" during 2007 and leading up to the Bear Stearns failure and after it. Of course there were others as well. If Celente predicted the failure of BSC, Merrill, and Lehman in 2007 then I'll concede the tie to him. No shortage of doomers with predictions out there. Even Nadler gets one top right in every bull market.
"rumor" from CA, that they will need to issue vouchers next month unless they can get their ususal short term loan to "carry" them through to tax season.
there is so much waste in our goverments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off.
where is the oversite to Congress both in State and Federal levels?...please don't say it is in the voting booth
"there is so much waste in our goverments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off."
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtapostion of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no buks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service postions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just: a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
mhammerman, it ain't even being considered in CA as a viable solution (lean government), Schwarzenegger has been preaching, yet even the thought of furloughing two days a month for Sate employees is falling just on Union ears and will not be done.
i'd like to see a lean government happen as much as you though
could you have had too many "poppy plums" dancing through your head this season?
<< <i>"there is so much waste in our governments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off."
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtaposition of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no bucks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service positions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just: a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
Be fruitful and multiply... >>
Thank you, I sent this to everyone of consequence I know!
<< <i>"there is so much waste in our governments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off."
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtaposition of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no bucks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service positions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just: a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
Be fruitful and multiply... >>
Thank you, I sent this to everyone of consequence I know! >>
Answer from a two time mayor and 4 time city councilman in the municipality of 90,000 I reside in. A good friend and wise man younger than myself!!!
I would agree that tax revenues are going to decline...that has already started with the drop in retail sales which means less sales tax. Property will still exist so property taxes will be there but not as much new growth because there is already less construction.
Public projects...who knows. What will voters be willing to approve? Municipal bonds will still be attractive to investors because of the tax benefits and the fact that they are backed by government...if it's a good government entity. Government will have to cut back just like everyone else. Sales tax is a big part of the total revenue in many cities.
Many hospitals today are private corporations and they've been saying for years that there are too many beds not filled. Yet the big corps come in and build newer more modern hospitals so they can compete. They probably weren't going to build many more for a while anyway.
"Free services"??? I don't know of any "free" services. I know a lot of people who THINK they are free. Many of those services have their own tax levy.
So he is probably right but not for all the reasons he says...some but not all. That's my two cents worth.
<< <i>"there is so much waste in our governments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off."
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtaposition of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no bucks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service positions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just: a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
Be fruitful and multiply... >>
Thank you, I sent this to everyone of consequence I know! >>
Answer from a two time mayor and 4 time city councilman in the municipality of 90,000 I reside in. A good friend and wise man younger than myself!!!
I would agree that tax revenues are going to decline...that has already started with the drop in retail sales which means less sales tax. Property will still exist so property taxes will be there but not as much new growth because there is already less construction.
Public projects...who knows. What will voters be willing to approve? Municipal bonds will still be attractive to investors because of the tax benefits and the fact that they are backed by government...if it's a good government entity. Government will have to cut back just like everyone else. Sales tax is a big part of the total revenue in many cities.
Many hospitals today are private corporations and they've been saying for years that there are too many beds not filled. Yet the big corps come in and build newer more modern hospitals so they can compete. They probably weren't going to build many more for a while anyway.
"Free services"??? I don't know of any "free" services. I know a lot of people who THINK they are free. Many of those services have their own tax levy.
So he is probably right but not for all the reasons he says...some but not all. That's my two cents worth. >>
From my United States Marine Corps Sergeant Major friend:
Thanks John, I certainly agree with what the author stated and it "WILL" get worse before it gets better. Top
Interesting getting reviews on my post via Airedale; thanks, I think. The post was just anticipatory or some of the constraints we will be facing in governance and delivery of public services. Actually, there is opportunity for optimism here because we will be forced to do some problem solving in areas that we have typically just had to massage as opposed to the wholesale changes that will be required and also, it is the right time for change. The problem solving exercise will require bullet like precision in prioritizing public expenditures in order to be successful and it will take a few years and some missteps before we get it right but once again, there is good reason for optimism.
One of the good reasons for optimism, other than coming up with forward thinking solutions, is that each and everyone of us will be required to do the same problem solving exercise at the personal household level as our governments must now engage. We will be forced to save money and not carry debt, we will be forced to rely more on family and acquaintances and social networking will return to vogue. Maybe people will get back to taking care of their money and resources with much more of a hands on approach. There are a lot of new opportunities that will be created and some new thinking to come of this that will move us from here to there.
Once again, thanks for the reviews. Let's have a good year!
As America turns more and more to socialism, and cities, states, and Federal governments thirst for the blood money they need to operate, I thought this might be an appropriate time to share a story.
It has been so many years writing on this thread I hope I have not told this story before.
Anyway;
As some of you may know, besides my interest in coins, I have always had an interest in ancient cultures, and more specifically the artifacts of ancient cultures.
Many years ago I was collecting artifacts from Ancient Mexico and S. America. At that time I was living in Austin Texas and had a very wealth friend that collected only the very high-end Mayan pieces. Most of this art was way beyond my budget at that time but my friend always kept me in the loop to see objects that were presented to him.
There was a gentleman, (Mr. X), that was very politically connected, that live in Mexico and had access to some of the new Mayan finds. Every six months or so he would call my friend and fly in from Mexico with a couple of large salesman’s briefcases full of art.
Most of the pieces started at $10,000 each and went up from there. On one of his visits I ask Mr. X how many collectors were on his list to visit in Texas, and his reply was 3. I then ask him what happened to his pieces if those three did not buy them all. My thinking was he would head to other parts of the country, but I was mistaken. Mr. X said that he would make the rounds in Texas, because it was close, and then head straight for Europe, and this is what he told me about why he went to Europe.
“ Europe has been a socialist group of countries for many decades, and as the governments there became more and more desperate to continue growing government they have pass every tax on every item one might imagine.
Not only do they collect taxes in every conceivable manner but also they have fees for everything one can imagine.
So the only choice most successful people there have is to hide all the wealth they possible can. Huge amounts of the economies are done with cash. In addition, standard procedure for most families is to first save enough money to buy a home and pay off the mortgage as soon as possible. Once that is done they secretly dig out a hidden vault under the home. Only the heads of each family are allowed to go into the vault and NO strangers!
I know of this because through all the many years of selling ancient treasures to many of these families I have been invited into a couple of these vaults, I suppose they think I have as much to lose smuggling as they do hiding their wealth? At any rate these vaults are full of items hidden from view of government officials and the blood sucking taxmen.
Contained in these hidden vaults all over Europe are Billions of dollars worth of gold, silver, art, cash and collectables. If I do not sell all of my wares in Texas, a three day trip to Europe always cleans me out, and there is no haggling over price.”
For those out there that think we should be more like the Europeans, best pay off the house and start digging!!
Maybe people will get back to taking care of their money and resources with much more of a hands on approach. There are a lot of new opportunities that will be created and some new thinking to come of this that will move us from here to there.
Ironically, just this past week I was talking to an IRA representative on the phone because I was looking to make an account rollover. When I indicated I was looking to select certain funds not in the main company core holdings, and heaven forbid even individual corporations, he said that I was obviously very "hand ons." Huh? I hardly know what I'm doing when it comes to stocks. But the inference was that many of the people he deals with just toss money into Koolaid style mutual funds such as a selection based on your planned retirement year (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2035, etc). I could hardly keep from gagging.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtapostion of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
mhammerman, nicely done. You are describing in a sense is a portal, a wormhole or worse yet a black hole. The last few years we have felt the gravitational pull to some speck in the universe. In the past few months the gravitational force has sped us up and we can see the hole we are about to enter. The day of entry is January 20, 2009. If it's a portal, we will emerge into a new paradigm not recognizable at first. If it is a wormhole, look out for a long period of constraints (taxes) and disorientation (socialism). If it's a black hole it wont matter what preparation one had prior entry.
Cliff Droke is calling for the stock recovery to last into mid-year. He feels that with the hugely negative sentiment out there (ie the dreaded D word) that as always the crowd will be wrong. He notes that with the 6 year and 12 year Kress cycles conflicting in the last qtr of 2008 that volatility was at a max (6 yr cycle bottoming and 12 yr cycle trying to move up). The 12 yr up-Kress cycle ends in summer 2009. From here, volatility wanes, stocks go up.....gold stocks should follow. Seems stagflationary imo.
The best part of the article is his reaction to the dreaded "D" word. A few paragraphs worth reading for both deflationists and inflationists.
Clive Maund's charting shows the possibility for a gold pull back to at least $800 to be probable enough to pull a bit off the table for now. Everything seems lined up to support his call, except maybe a little more left in the RSI. He feels a rally in the dollar to the bottom of the previous head and shoulders base (84-85) would be likely in that case. Curiously, the dollar is making moves towards that level, but so is gold...so far....maybe from mid-east tensions. It certainly seems to be a good time for gold stocks to take a breather from moving up 80-150% over the past few months.
The VIX will find support in the mid 30's over the next 2 weeks. Then bounce and retest the mid-30s. If it breaks and sustains under 25 then we will stabilize the markets for several weeks. If it bounces a 2nd time off the mid-30s, then its GAME ON!!!
Mhammer - Haven't you read the latest Drudge headlines that have been up for 2 days . . . Obama-Nation is planning on hiring approximately 600,000 more .gov employees. No, that is not a typo - 20% of 3 million new jobs. (He said 80% will be in the private sector, leaving 20% for .gov.) Boy the economy must really be bad - All the guys in Washington just got a big raise too! How's that tickle your fancy? pffffft <insert disgust icon>
Cliff Droke is calling for the stock recovery to last into mid-year. He feels that with the hugely negative sentiment out there (ie the dreaded D word) that as always the crowd will be wrong. He notes that with the 6 year and 12 year Kress cycles conflicting in the last qtr of 2008 that volatility was at a max (6 yr cycle bottoming and 12 yr cycle trying to move up). The 12 yr up-Kress cycle ends in summer 2009. From here, volatility wanes, stocks go up.....gold stocks should follow. Seems stagflationary imo.
The best part of the article is his reaction to the dreaded "D" word. A few paragraphs worth reading for both deflationists and inflationists.
Cycles are fine when we are in "normal" markets. There's always something pulling the markets out of whack. Most recently the dot-com, housing bubble, prolonged 1% Fed Funds, and now an injection of trillions into the markets. This injection is nothing a cycle can predict or conform. But it is an interesting read.
It looks like we are getting out of all the rest of the worlds deals, and they are getting out of ours. Time for everyone to take their marbles and go home.
"Investors dump $89B in U.S. securities in historic fire sale
By David J. Lynch, USA TODAY The deep river of private money that helped knit together the global economy has abruptly dried up, new government figures show.
As the global financial crisis grew more severe this summer, foreigners sold almost $90 billion of U.S. securities — the greatest quarterly fire sale by overseas investors since the government began keeping track in 1960. U.S. investors also are retrenching; they unloaded about $85 billion worth of foreign holdings in the quarter, says the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"We've had a global panic. Everyone is pulling their money home," says economist Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.
The reversal of private capital flows signals an abrupt end to a nearly two-decades-long era of financial globalization, says economist Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations. Private flows into and out of the U.S. for purchases of stocks, corporate bonds and federal agency bonds have dropped from around 18% of economic output to near zero "in a remarkably short period of time," Setser says.
The past two quarters also have seen an about-face in cross-border bank flows as institutional investors found lenders unwilling to extend credit. In the first quarter of 2008, foreigners deposited more than $79 billion with U.S. banks. That flow reversed in the second quarter, as foreigners withdrew a staggering $256 billion, and the outflow continued in the third quarter with an additional $147 billion. Likewise, banks in the U.S. brought home more than $151 billion in the quarter, as overseas institutions repaid loans.
Interesting that gold can rise and rise and nary a word in the press but the slightest little dip right in mid trading range and it's news on CNN Money...odd, methinks. It's almost like all the forces are trying to keep people away from gold for some reason but they hype that the stock market has found the bottom and is set to surge. There is a certain strangeness in the media, almost like the media is being directed by some master moderator in some kind of political/investor group think. Just odd, nothing to see here, move along..."You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."
Comments
But your participation is appreciated. Sorry Charlie....only the choicest of tuna are selected for Starkist. I would think that the 10,000th post should be reserved for the man who started this all......Goldsaint. I don't think we'll be here at post number 20,000 to go it all again.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Ron Paul is a bad joke.
ebaytrader, what part of the following don't you understand?
The choice we face is ominous: We either accept world-wide authoritarian government holding together a flawed system, OR we restore the principles of the Constitution, limit government power, restore commodity money without a Federal Reserve system, reject world government, and promote the cause of peace by protecting liberty equally for all persons. Freedom is the answer.
Be careful what you wish for. We're already over halfway there. >>
The question is: What don't you understand? >>
What I understand is that folks such as you, ebaytrader, are obviously just flat out ignorant or brainwashed or both... and it is very sad...
There is little reason for anyone to attempt to hold an intelligent conversation with you... I have read many of your posts over time...and like many on the forums... you seem to have your head firmly planted in a dark smelly place and are intent on defiantly keeping it there... so be it... >>
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>
<< <i>The end of the United States by 2010? >>
Oh Boy!!
Another Russian predicting Alaska will become a part of the Russian empire....
Last time it was a supposedly respected Russian official who stated that Alaska was only on lease to the US.
Seems to be a nationalistic trend for these frustrated folks.
Seller's remorse? Tough. >>
And I was thinking they just thought the governor was hot and wanted to get her on their side.
Millions Of Buffalo Pies
A long time ago a charming and respectable man appeared in a small village and announced he would buy buffalo or cow pies for $1 each.
The inhabitants, seeing that there were many buffalo and cow pies lying around, went about gathering them up. The man bought thousands at $1. As the immediate supply began to diminish the villagers stopped their effort.
The man then announced he would pay $5 each. This increased price drew out more supply as the villagers ventured further away from the village to collect buffalo and cow pies. Predictably the supply diminished even further and buffalo and cow pies became even rarer.
The man then increased his offer to $10 per buffalo or cow pie. The inhabitants started searching everywhere but could rarely find any buffalo or cow pies. They had become extremely scarce!
The man had to go to a neighboring town to complete some business. Nevertheless, he left an assistant in charge of acquiring more buffalo and cow pies along with an astounding offer of $40 each. After the man left the assistant told the villagers, “Can you believe all the buffalo and cow pies in this man’s giant collector bin? I will sell you all the buffalo and cow pies at a mere $25 each and then you can sell them to the man for $40 each when he returns.” The inhabitants rounded up all $700B of their savings in the CRAPs fund and purchased all the buffalo and cow pies. Then the assistant skipped town and neither he nor the man have been seen since. No one sincerely wants to know how many buffalo and cow pies everyone else owns. Ignorance is bliss and denial is fun.
roadrunner
I liked the discussion between $LA and RR regarding fundamentals v.s. technicals, it was a good little exchange and a model for discourse. It got me to thinking about metal and money and where to next. I like having the metal, it has and I suspect will continue to do it's job; keeping an even keel on the personal financial boat. When you think about it, we are very privileged to be able to have enough spare frn's to be able to put a little metal in the box and we should appreciate the privilege. A privilege is defined as a right or immunity granted as a particular benefit, advantage, or favor...and so it is, the right to hold gold.
Gold has done its job, it has kept us even and not in the loser column. The pundits that have an opinin about the value of gold are just people yelling into the wind. Gold is a protector of wealth. We have read the prognostications about $5000 gold and $500 gold, there are plenty of opinions but they are all for naught. Gold is a protector of wealth apart from all other forms of exchange. We are witnessing how gold has stood alone in a collapsing stockmarket, alone and apart from the bank failures, separate from the scams and ripoffs of the financial industry, gold has stood singularly alone as a protector of wealth.
People argue that gold is just a commodity and will track with other commodities...not true as evidenced by the plummeting of steel, aluminum, oil, gasoline, etc. on the commodities exchanges, all the while gold held the line and traded right in it's established range. Gold may be traded as a commodity but only in so much as it has industrial and utilitarian applications like jewelry, conductivity, maleability and the like. Apart from the minor commodity aspects of gold, it is above all and foremost an immutable asset coveted around the world as a foundation for wealth. People with an opinion can call it this and call it that but that doesn't change value or function of gold.
We hear the discussions of trading in and out of gold on paper, the Kitco site is awash with the promoters and nay-sayers alike, all strong in their beliefs and sure of their position but it's not the same. Paper is paper and physical metal is physical metal and the two are not the same as evidenced by the premiums for physical over paper; physical gold has no peer either in paper, currency, stocks, or any of the other ways to play with gold other than actually having physical metal. I suspect that very few people run down and buy 20 ozers one day and take them back a few weeks later when the price is higher...I guess it could happen but it certainly doesn't seem very practical for just a few buks. It's the holding of the physical metal that has the sustainable value, not any other form or variation on the theme.
The 5% rule for holding gold in your portfolio is a ruse. 5% of anything will do nothing for you, it will not save you it will not make you money, it will not protect your portfolio; 5% is nothing but lip service to the question "Shouldn't I have some gold?" If you choose gold as your secret weapon then you need enough of your portfolio committed to the metal to do you some actual good. So, what's a reasonable amount...methinks 20% as a minimum and in practice, that's about where it is for me. What's your downside risk if you steadily accumulate as in adding to your savings account...none it seems. What's your upside benefit...none it seems because other than short lived spikes and dips that are fodder for players, gold is an even exchange for goods and services apart from what ever the currency implications may be about how many dollars something costs. The upside benefit is that you don't lose anything. Gold is stability, it is neither loss of gain, it is a protector of your standard of living. So when the market dips, not to worry, when gold rises, hey...no big deal because you are neither making or losing money until you exchange the metal for something else like currency and when you do exchange it you are doing so at a rate equivilent to the value of physical gold.
Gold as a protector if things get wacky is also hard to swallow. If things get wacky, gold is going to be the very least of your worries. You can't eat it, you could make bullets or arrow heads from it maybe, you could throw it at an attacker, you could maybe exchange it for something you could use to some guy that wants it to throw at someone...gold is only valuable in a society that can use gold as wealth, aside from the commodity value of the metal proper. When you are hunting squirrels for food, gold is going to do you very little good. No one is going to need gold if it gets to $5000, they are going to be much more satisfied with a bowl of grits and some bacon grease than you are with a pocket full of some kind of currency backed by the full faith of some government that has collapsed. Gold will not do anyone much good if the society descends into barbarism or if there is a nuclear war, it only is of value in a functioning world economy with stable exchanges and universal acceptance of it's value. By the same rationale, frn's will do you little good in barbarous times either. We don't want $5000 gold anymore than we want $32 gold, we want gold to trade in a rational range and be very liquid in exchange for currency, goods, and services. Gold is good only when it is rational.
In reflection, it has been a comfort to reach into the box and pull out a few ozers and trade them for frn's when I needed some cash, just as it has been a comfort to have a few extra buks to accumulate some more for the next time I might need a little boost. I don't play gold, I accumulate the metal. I am not a hoarder and I would not hesitate to dip into my stash when I need a little cash any more than I would hesitate to put some extra buks right back into metal when times are good. Gold is stability and it will be in '09 just as it was in '08; you can use what ever first two digits you want here, 17, 18, 19, 20, etc.
I also agree that the 5% diversification figure is way too light. 5% is enough to get someone across a border or cover near-term expenses should $LA's nuclear scenarios come to pass. But for benefit during these unstable times, I would agree with the 20-35% ratio, with higher being better. Since the FED/Banks are now actually paying net negative interest to hold treasuries, owning gold makes even more sense.
roadrunner
i think the 10k was wishful thinking.
good comments mhammerman
we just disagree (well not really....lol) on blondes vs brunettes and i can truly live with that!
roadrunner
must be rich. Thanks to the Government
I am part owner of a large insurance company,
two car manufac. ,several Banks and heaven only
knows what else. What more could a working
person hope for?
Camelot
I found this linked over at the GIM site. While I do recall seeing this 3 wave business cycle chart once before, I never paid it any mind, until today. This article is from 1999 and properly back fit all the previous American business cycles into neat 8.6 year bundles. The accuracy is quite compelling. I flipped back to the late 1700's and the well known panics and other recessions/depressions/booms all lined up. The author spent years deciphering data. As to where 8.6 yrs comes from? It seems to conflict with cycles of 10 yr lengths until one considers 10 Kress cycles of 6 yrs each as well as the more familiar wave cycles of 60 and 120 years. The author notes that the 8.6 yr cycle = 3,141 days (with 2 leap yr days) with the latter number being pi x 1000. Interesting stuff.
From 1999 to 2008 the trend still holds up as I went back through DJIA data to confirm it. While the Dow peaks may not always coincide with our own personal "peaks" in each cycle, the Dow did indeed peak or bottom at the points on the chart (Nov 2002 bot, Jan 2005 peak, Jan 2006 bot, Feb 2007 peak, Mar 2008 bottom). The next data points call for 4/19/09 peak, 6/14/11 bot, June 2013 peak.
The 2008 stock market crash is obviously not forecasted as a bottom and who can blame the author if he didn't plan on $1 QUAD in derivatives and multiple major bank failures back in 1999. And in 1999 the author was well versed on the leveraged failures of LTCM and other early dabblers in risky derivatives back in 1998. But the potential bright side is a stronger Dow by April 2009, exactly the opposite of what most people are feeling though a number of analysts have felt that a Dow recovery by March is well due. But inevitably, a 26 month fall to follow that...and then begin a new up cycle in mid-2013...assuming you have confidence in the data presented. One has to wonder if excessive govt intervention can ultimately disrupt the cycle trends. So far they've held up.
The author mentioned his prediction in late 1976 that an inflationary turnaround was coming following the then-current recessionary period, when many others were calling for depression. Curiously, that same cycle point would equate to 6/14/2011....2-1/2 yrs away. That would better coincide with what Cohodk, MoneyLA, and others have been predicting.
roadrunner
I am disconcerted by his mention of Russia and China. As I have written many times, I also view these 2 superpowers as a very serious threat to global stability. Russia has the resources and China the manpower. A lethal combination.
But perhaps more worrisome is the idea that the cycle ends on Christmas Eve 2032. Too much religious implication and that is just before I am scheduled to receive my first social security check.
Edited to add.....Armstrong uses 2008.225 to mark a bottom. This obviously wasnt the bottom for the US stock market, but 2008.225 was March 23rd. The US dollar bottomed on March 17.
More homework......There is a gold bottomed at 255 on Feb 20, 2001. 8.6 years into the future is about Oct 1 2009. However there is a low of 252.50 on Aug 25, 1999. 8.6 years into the future is about March 5, 2008. Gold topped at 1033.90 on March 17, 2008
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
When there's a world war we both fight on the same side. When the war's over they're our enemy again.
Edited to add.....Armstrong uses 2008.225 to mark a bottom. This obviously wasnt the bottom for the US stock market, but 2008.225 was March 23rd. The US dollar bottomed on March 17.
In analyzing Armstrong's calls I compared off a simple monthly DOW spreadsheet. If his high was within a week or two of the actual DOW high/low I gave him credit for the call. Logically, I don't think anyone can predict years out, to the day (or even the week) when a peak or bottom is due in. Still, I was surprised to the see the data fall within the same month or so very consistently. His call of March 22, 2008 for a Dow bottom was a couple of weeks late. The Dow reached a protracted bottom in Feb to early March. While he called for a January 2007 top which did happen (interim top), he missed the ultimate peak that grew from Feb to Oct 2007. Possibly that final growth spurt was not from the standard business cycle but from a 45% increase in leveraged financial products as the businesses were looking for whatever means to keep the financial boom going in the wake of a sputtering housing market....the final boom in derivatives growth.
roadrunner
In a word: Power.
1. Gold ended at $879 in NYC which exceed the 2007 end of year by 5.5% as well as average yearly levels by a wider margin. 7 years in a row ending higher. Sounds like a secular bull market to me! A barbarous performance if there ever was one. I'm very surprised that the PPT didn't take it a step further today when they had gold running down overseas to under $860 via the London JPM offices, and this after pushing gold down incrementally from $890 two sessions earlier. It seemed very likely they were going to pound it down further in New York this morning but they got outplayed after their initial push down to $855. From their a pretty strong recovery to $880+ while the dollar was ramping up as well. PPTers had a golden opportunity to get gold under the Dec 31, 2007 close and keep goldbugs from claiming a 7th straight year in the black. I was stunned the PPT lost the handle on this one or just decided to sleep in today to get ready to watch the 30 hours of Twilight Zone re-runs. It seemed everything rallied up today: stocks, oil, gold, silver, dollar, etc. Then again, maybe it was more important for them to get stocks up on a roll going into 2009. If not today PPT, then when? Seemed like a perfect opportunity....unless the boyz are too low on gold derivatives, naked shorts, or physical gold to throw back into the mix.
2. Dow/gold finished at <10.0 (9.98) following a strong 2 day rally in stocks and a surprise $30 rally by gold from 10 am on. It did not seem like that was going to happen at mid-morning today and it appeared to be a shoe-in a couple of days ago.
3. The gold thread easily beat out Dow by a wide margin, with Google bringing up the rear. Anyone for Google vs palladium?
4. Gold up 5.5% yoy with the US Dollar Index up also in the 5% range.....while DOW and most stock indicies down nearly 30-40% yoy.
5. After being slammed down some 60% from its peak, the HUI unhedged gold shares recovered to be down 26% yoy....still better than the general stock market.
roadrunner
<< <i>Thanks for the link Roadrunner. I had never seen it, but it does play much into my cycles idea and the time intervals also match up well. I had always used 16 and 24 years as my cycle--interesting how they are both roughly divisible by 8.6.
I am disconcerted by his mention of Russia and China. As I have written many times, I also view these 2 superpowers as a very serious threat to global stability. Russia has the resources and China the manpower. A lethal combination.
But perhaps more worrisome is the idea that the cycle ends on Christmas Eve 2032. Too much religious implication and that is just before I am scheduled to receive my first social security check.
Edited to add.....Armstrong uses 2008.225 to mark a bottom. This obviously wasnt the bottom for the US stock market, but 2008.225 was March 23rd. The US dollar bottomed on March 17.
More homework......There is a gold bottomed at 255 on Feb 20, 2001. 8.6 years into the future is about Oct 1 2009. However there is a low of 252.50 on Aug 25, 1999. 8.6 years into the future is about March 5, 2008. Gold topped at 1033.90 on March 17, 2008 >>
Thanks for the info. I love this kind of speculation and prediction based on human trends, traits, habits or whatever. I feel that this particular trend/cycle may not hold up due to the unforeseen trillions of dollars being pumped into our system this year and next.
Ren
He actually gets paid for that! Where do I go to sign up?
Rob Kirby's 2008 3Q derivatives comparison
Rob Kirby points out that in the 3rd Qtr of 2008 when gold took a massive and immediate pounding, JPM added $15 BILL notional in gold "paper" derivatives to their books, a 26.6% increase in <1 yr maturities (+15% in their overall derivative's maturities). That's the equivalent of around 500 tons (16 MILL oz) of physical gold being dumped on the market to help depress pricing. Kirby indicates that it takes fuel to force a $200 drop in the gold market (ie JPMorgan Chase’s gold derivatives book increased by $15 billion in three months was the fuel). With capital being scarce everywhere, JPM saw fit to use $15 BILL in gold derivatives to short gold futures into the ground over 3 months. Thanks to Rob Kirby for providing the above clarification. No physical gold needed. Just paper.
JPM would probably tell you they purchased those derivatives for "stabilizing" the dollar rather than to crush gold, the more obvious and likely objective. JPM carries a total of $100 BILL in gold derivatives which is about 79% of the listed amount among the 5 major bank derivative's holders. HSBC is the only other top 5 with a substantial holding ($24 BILL or 19%). Look no further than those 2 as far as to who can move the paper gold market. JPM=Treasury=FED.
Another interesting point from the 3Q derivatives stats is that the top 5 US banks only reduced their published derivatives exposure from 2nd to 3rd Qtr a measly 4%. JPM reduced from $91 TRILL to $87 TRILL. BOA and Citigroup still have $35-$39 TRILL each. Still a lot to be wrung out here.
roadrunner
there's already more buy orders than they can fill.
this IMHO is one "bright light" advantage to capitalize in these times is well both normal, expected, and revolting.
While applauding the continuing efforts of deflationists like Rick Ackerman and Mike (Mish) Shedlock, Willie contends that they along with most deflationists have failed to include several key items in money supplies and velocities. Those items include the massive flows in derivatives and CDS's that have funded banks for the past decade, the frequent trading of gold and silver futures derivatives (ironic since Au and Ag are money), the massive flows (velocity) of money into treasuries over the past few months, and the hundreds of billions of dollars that Wall Street is sucking out of the peripheral economy (money flows). Without considering these key factors which are not part of traditional Keynesian theory, Willie concludes that they have missed something quite large by being hung up on what has happened solely in the contracting outer economy. The Ponzi financial sector is something Keynes never got to experience. Maybe he would have modified his theories somewhat had he seen it.
A final point is that if deflation is truly occurring rather than just credit and asset contraction (not monetary) why did gold stabilize in the $700 range rather than being beat down to $400-$500 where it should have gone in deflationary unison to oil, copper, and other commodities. To make matters worse for the deflationist, gold has strengthened into the upper $800's and has been showing a number of signs of technical reversal (see Willie's charts of MACD crossing, rising moving averages and RSI, etc.). This is not the behavior of a deflationary metal. Recall that gold is also a leading indicator prior to inflationary forces showing up across the economy (2002-2003) - it's the alarm to get our attention when things are out of whack. It looks to be alarming now.
Would the FED and Treasury want everyone to be thinking of deflation or inflation at least until the near future? Are their pet policies more easily supported under fear of D or I? When the FED says look "here".....we all should probably be looking elsewhere.
roadrunner
While M-1 zooms with a rocket trajectory, MZM has barely moved. We can't have inflation without the $$$ and they're not making their way into our pockets.
This would be the Keynesian response. The question is do his theories, originally put together to support the socialistic agenda and fund Keynesian "economic" research, even hold water today?
The dollars don't have to be in yours or the public's pocket, as long as they are out there somewhere in another person's pockets. And that money can be used to chase whatever asset the owner chooses. We have both deflationary (money not in the public's pocket) and inflationary aspects (money in their pocket) of the current economy. And as Willie has described the real significant money flows of the past decade swirl around the peripherals of the mainstream/mainstreet economy. They don't show up in standard M analysis since they came in the back door ("double booked" as Willie calls it).
roadrunner
www.trendsresearch.com
the sky is falling type of guy---- but you never can be too careful.
Interesting link but a paid subscription site apparently.
I've seen references to Celente from time to time but nothing that presented anything different than what you typically see on the links I have listed in my sig line. He wasn't the only one calling for a 2008 panic as JS was stating "this is it" during 2007 and leading up to the Bear Stearns failure and after it. Of course there were others as well. If Celente predicted the failure of BSC, Merrill, and Lehman in 2007 then I'll concede the tie to him. No shortage of doomers with predictions out there. Even Nadler gets one top right in every bull market.
roadrunner
there is so much waste in our goverments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off.
where is the oversite to Congress both in State and Federal levels?...please don't say it is in the voting booth
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtapostion of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no buks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service postions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just:
a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place
b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
Be fruitful and multiply...
i'd like to see a lean government happen as much as you though
could you have had too many "poppy plums" dancing through your head this season?
<< <i>"there is so much waste in our governments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off."
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtaposition of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no bucks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service positions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just:
a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place
b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
Be fruitful and multiply... >>
Thank you, I sent this to everyone of consequence I know!
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>
<< <i>"there is so much waste in our governments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off."
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtaposition of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no bucks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service positions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just:
a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place
b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
Be fruitful and multiply... >>
Thank you, I sent this to everyone of consequence I know! >>
Answer from a two time mayor and 4 time city councilman in the municipality of 90,000 I reside in. A good friend and wise man younger than myself!!!
I would agree that tax revenues are going to decline...that has already started with the drop in retail sales which means less sales tax. Property will still exist so property taxes will be there but not as much new growth because there is already less construction.
Public projects...who knows. What will voters be willing to approve? Municipal bonds will still be attractive to investors because of the tax benefits and the fact that they are backed by government...if it's a good government entity. Government will have to cut back just like everyone else. Sales tax is a big part of the total revenue in many cities.
Many hospitals today are private corporations and they've been saying for years that there are too many beds not filled. Yet the big corps come in and build newer more modern hospitals so they can compete. They probably weren't going to build many more for a while anyway.
"Free services"??? I don't know of any "free" services. I know a lot of people who THINK they are free. Many of those services have their own tax levy.
So he is probably right but not for all the reasons he says...some but not all. That's my two cents worth.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>"there is so much waste in our governments these days from local to County to State to Federal. They are way way way too top heavy in management and it's always the bottom that gets sliced off."
That's all about to change. The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. We are on the brink of the reorganization of our governmental, technical, and budgetary infrastructure just as we are on the brink of national physical infrastructure renovations. Our status quo for doing things is about to change and since we waited for it to kick in the door instead of going to meet it at the front walkway, all we can do is react...we planned nothing at the national level and we knew this was all coming at least a year and a half ago. I'm not a Bush basher, in fact I kind of think he did some very good things but he did nothing to prepare for what sits in our living rooms right now.
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtaposition of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
Quick scenario...local, state, and federal income will decline by at least 20% across the board; maybe a little better in some areas and a lot worse in others. No new construction bonds for any public projects because there are no backers to finance the bonds in the first place so the projects can not begin; you can go ahead and draw them in-house and talk about them in the newspapers but no no bucks means no construction contracts. That means no new hospitals in fact many will shut within the next 6 months. Jails will become more overcrowded (or they will have to let pot heads and burglars take a walk in place of violent criminals) just as budgets are being cut across the board and no new jails will be built unless the fed pays for them. Libraries...nope, new schools...nope, community service positions, parks, sidewalk maintenance, sewer maintenance...just keep the list going to include many of the "free" services folk are used to having provided for them by their local governments...nope. It's not that the govt. doesn't want to provide the services, there is just:
a) going to be fewer staff so no one to do the work in the first place
b) no money for materials and equipment as maintenance and repair budgets get the quick ax
Point being that we are here, now and we find ourselves at the threshold of the new order...nothing Orwellian, just the natural evolution of the status quo into what's next. We spend a lot of our time on this thread predicting and prognosticating. This is just a note to self that we are indeed going into a transition and maybe there is a moment we can spare to just contemplate the history we are about to live for what it is as opposed to handicapping the outcome; we are an interesting and very dynamic historical point.
Edited to add: Maybe a good time to go through the kit bag one more time just to make sure everything is in place.
Be fruitful and multiply... >>
Thank you, I sent this to everyone of consequence I know! >>
Answer from a two time mayor and 4 time city councilman in the municipality of 90,000 I reside in. A good friend and wise man younger than myself!!!
I would agree that tax revenues are going to decline...that has already started with the drop in retail sales which means less sales tax. Property will still exist so property taxes will be there but not as much new growth because there is already less construction.
Public projects...who knows. What will voters be willing to approve? Municipal bonds will still be attractive to investors because of the tax benefits and the fact that they are backed by government...if it's a good government entity. Government will have to cut back just like everyone else. Sales tax is a big part of the total revenue in many cities.
Many hospitals today are private corporations and they've been saying for years that there are too many beds not filled. Yet the big corps come in and build newer more modern hospitals so they can compete. They probably weren't going to build many more for a while anyway.
"Free services"??? I don't know of any "free" services. I know a lot of people who THINK they are free. Many of those services have their own tax levy.
So he is probably right but not for all the reasons he says...some but not all. That's my two cents worth. >>
From my United States Marine Corps Sergeant Major friend:
Thanks John, I certainly agree with what the author stated and it "WILL" get worse before it gets better.
Top
Chance favors the prepared mind.
<< <i>The ultimate mandate now is that governments will be lean or they will be gone. >>
One of the good reasons for optimism, other than coming up with forward thinking solutions, is that each and everyone of us will be required to do the same problem solving exercise at the personal household level as our governments must now engage. We will be forced to save money and not carry debt, we will be forced to rely more on family and acquaintances and social networking will return to vogue. Maybe people will get back to taking care of their money and resources with much more of a hands on approach. There are a lot of new opportunities that will be created and some new thinking to come of this that will move us from here to there.
Once again, thanks for the reviews. Let's have a good year!
As America turns more and more to socialism, and cities, states, and Federal governments thirst for the blood money they need to operate, I thought this might be an appropriate time to share a story.
It has been so many years writing on this thread I hope I have not told this story before.
Anyway;
As some of you may know, besides my interest in coins, I have always had an interest in ancient cultures, and more specifically the artifacts of ancient cultures.
Many years ago I was collecting artifacts from Ancient Mexico and S. America. At that time I was living in Austin Texas and had a very wealth friend that collected only the very high-end Mayan pieces. Most of this art was way beyond my budget at that time but my friend always kept me in the loop to see objects that were presented to him.
There was a gentleman, (Mr. X), that was very politically connected, that live in Mexico and had access to some of the new Mayan finds. Every six months or so he would call my friend and fly in from Mexico with a couple of large salesman’s briefcases full of art.
Most of the pieces started at $10,000 each and went up from there. On one of his visits I ask Mr. X how many collectors were on his list to visit in Texas, and his reply was 3.
I then ask him what happened to his pieces if those three did not buy them all. My thinking was he would head to other parts of the country, but I was mistaken. Mr. X said that he would make the rounds in Texas, because it was close, and then head straight for Europe, and this is what he told me about why he went to Europe.
“ Europe has been a socialist group of countries for many decades, and as the governments there became more and more desperate to continue growing government they have pass every tax on every item one might imagine.
Not only do they collect taxes in every conceivable manner but also they have fees for everything one can imagine.
So the only choice most successful people there have is to hide all the wealth they possible can. Huge amounts of the economies are done with cash. In addition, standard procedure for most families is to first save enough money to buy a home and pay off the mortgage as soon as possible. Once that is done they secretly dig out a hidden vault under the home. Only the heads of each family are allowed to go into the vault and NO strangers!
I know of this because through all the many years of selling ancient treasures to many of these families I have been invited into a couple of these vaults, I suppose they think I have as much to lose smuggling as they do hiding their wealth? At any rate these vaults are full of items hidden from view of government officials and the blood sucking taxmen.
Contained in these hidden vaults all over Europe are Billions of dollars worth of gold, silver, art, cash and collectables. If I do not sell all of my wares in Texas, a three day trip to Europe always cleans me out, and there is no haggling over price.”
For those out there that think we should be more like the Europeans, best pay off the house and start digging!!
Ironically, just this past week I was talking to an IRA representative on the phone because I was looking to make an account rollover. When I indicated I was looking to select certain funds not in the main company core holdings, and heaven forbid even individual corporations, he said that I was obviously very "hand ons." Huh? I hardly know what I'm doing when it comes to stocks. But the inference was that many of the people he deals with just toss money into Koolaid style mutual funds such as a selection based on your planned retirement year (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2035, etc). I could hardly keep from gagging.
roadrunner
Interesting that BHO is in the situation he is in, an interesting juxtapostion of time and events when you think about it. Unfortunately, this new world is starting right now and he has to meet with destiny. It's not about him, he really did nothing to orchestrate or deserve this destiny other than become President at this moment; this destiny was waiting for the next guy no matter who it was. It's more that he arrived on the stage just as the curtain was lifting and the lights were going dim and the music can just now be heard lifting up from the orchestra pit; I hope he can remember his lines and we all must wish him good fortune because our collective butts are on the stage with him.
mhammerman, nicely done. You are describing in a sense is a portal, a wormhole or worse yet a black hole. The last few years we have felt the gravitational pull to some speck in the universe. In the past few months the gravitational force has sped us up and we can see the hole we are about to enter. The day of entry is January 20, 2009. If it's a portal, we will emerge into a new paradigm not recognizable at first. If it is a wormhole, look out for a long period of constraints (taxes) and disorientation (socialism). If it's a black hole it wont matter what preparation one had prior entry.
Ren
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
Cliff Droke is calling for the stock recovery to last into mid-year. He feels that with the hugely negative sentiment out there (ie the dreaded D word) that as always the crowd will be wrong. He notes that with the 6 year and 12 year Kress cycles conflicting in the last qtr of 2008 that volatility was at a max (6 yr cycle bottoming and 12 yr cycle trying to move up). The 12 yr up-Kress cycle ends in summer 2009. From here, volatility wanes, stocks go up.....gold stocks should follow. Seems stagflationary imo.
The best part of the article is his reaction to the dreaded "D" word. A few paragraphs worth reading for both deflationists and inflationists.
Clive Maund's charting shows the possibility for a gold pull back to at least $800 to be probable enough to pull a bit off the table for now. Everything seems lined up to support his call, except maybe a little more left in the RSI. He feels a rally in the dollar to the bottom of the previous head and shoulders base (84-85) would be likely in that case. Curiously, the dollar is making moves towards that level, but so is gold...so far....maybe from mid-east tensions. It certainly seems to be a good time for gold stocks to take a breather from moving up 80-150% over the past few months.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Read his lips ..... 600K new employees (disguised with other words.)
baaa-aaaa-aaa-ah
<< <i>Cliff Droke - contrarian and sentimentarian
Cliff Droke is calling for the stock recovery to last into mid-year. He feels that with the hugely negative sentiment out there (ie the dreaded D word) that as always the crowd will be wrong. He notes that with the 6 year and 12 year Kress cycles conflicting in the last qtr of 2008 that volatility was at a max (6 yr cycle bottoming and 12 yr cycle trying to move up). The 12 yr up-Kress cycle ends in summer 2009. From here, volatility wanes, stocks go up.....gold stocks should follow. Seems stagflationary imo.
The best part of the article is his reaction to the dreaded "D" word. A few paragraphs worth reading for both deflationists and inflationists.
Cycles are fine when we are in "normal" markets. There's always something pulling the markets out of whack. Most recently the dot-com, housing bubble, prolonged 1% Fed Funds, and now an injection of trillions into the markets. This injection is nothing a cycle can predict or conform. But it is an interesting read.
Ren
It looks like we are getting out of all the rest of the worlds deals, and they are getting out of ours. Time for everyone to take their marbles and go home.
"Investors dump $89B in U.S. securities in historic fire sale
By David J. Lynch, USA TODAY
The deep river of private money that helped knit together the global economy has abruptly dried up, new government figures show.
As the global financial crisis grew more severe this summer, foreigners sold almost $90 billion of U.S. securities — the greatest quarterly fire sale by overseas investors since the government began keeping track in 1960. U.S. investors also are retrenching; they unloaded about $85 billion worth of foreign holdings in the quarter, says the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
"We've had a global panic. Everyone is pulling their money home," says economist Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.
The reversal of private capital flows signals an abrupt end to a nearly two-decades-long era of financial globalization, says economist Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations. Private flows into and out of the U.S. for purchases of stocks, corporate bonds and federal agency bonds have dropped from around 18% of economic output to near zero "in a remarkably short period of time," Setser says.
The past two quarters also have seen an about-face in cross-border bank flows as institutional investors found lenders unwilling to extend credit. In the first quarter of 2008, foreigners deposited more than $79 billion with U.S. banks. That flow reversed in the second quarter, as foreigners withdrew a staggering $256 billion, and the outflow continued in the third quarter with an additional $147 billion. Likewise, banks in the U.S. brought home more than $151 billion in the quarter, as overseas institutions repaid loans.
and the rest of us.
funny when POG is up all is quiet over there.
i'm still a holder don't worry.....
Interesting that gold can rise and rise and nary a word in the press but the slightest little dip right in mid trading range and it's news on CNN Money...odd, methinks. It's almost like all the forces are trying to keep people away from gold for some reason but they hype that the stock market has found the bottom and is set to surge. There is a certain strangeness in the media, almost like the media is being directed by some master moderator in some kind of political/investor group think. Just odd, nothing to see here, move along..."You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."
God knows when, but they're doin' it again.............
I knew it would happen.