That's what I was thinking. If it looks like the Gov't is going to pull an "Argentina" would it be worth taking a 10% haircut and put the rest in the home safe?
I have not made any money in those ten years, so I am beginning to think that investing for the long term is not the smart thing to do
I once asked a great buy and hold investor (just ask him) how long he would allow himself to be wrong before admitting that his buy and hold strategy is wrong. He said - "10 years." Somehow I betcha he's still gazing into his crystal ball... and it still says "BUY STOCKS!"
You'd do better to put in your contributions, put in a totally safe low-yield, and get the company match. Then take it out (immediately) and pay the 10% penalty, and you're probably still ahead.
While I can take out a portion of the 401K (my contributions), it's on a loan basis on which you start paying back immediately. I don't believe there is an option with my plan to withdraw the whole thing before age 59-1/2 and simply take a 10% penalty and pay income taxes. If it were only that small of a penalty you would have had millions of people bailing on their 401K's. As I get closer to age 59-1/2 things will get clearer. But right now I'm far enough away that the entire thing could evaporate by then.
Roadrunner, check if your plan offers hardship distributions; I don't know what your plan says, but conceivably you could qualify under one of the provisions. Another option is to take a loan (usually up to 50% of the value of the account) and just don't repay it; that will result in a distribution. The final option, if you leave your employer, is to take the distribution and deposit it rather than rolling it over or keeping it in the plan.
There are ways to get money out of a 401(k) plan prior to 59 1/2, it just depends on what your particular plan has in terms of language and requirements.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
While I can take out a portion of the 401K (my contributions), it's on a loan basis on which you start paying back immediately. I don't believe there is an option with my plan to withdraw the whole thing before age 59-1/2 and simply take a 10% penalty and pay income taxes. If it were only that small of a penalty you would have had millions of people bailing on their 401K's. As I get closer to age 59-1/2 things will get clearer. But right now I'm far enough away that the entire thing could evaporate by then.
roadrunner >>
You guys know a lot more about most of this stuff than me, and I could be reading this wrong, but you can call your 401k company (Mine is/was Alliance Bernstein) get a form from them, and close out the account if you wish. I can't imagine anyone saying you can't. I did this twice now, once several years ago to buy a house, and again early this year because I didn't like the signs I saw in the market.
Whether right now is a good time is another question, as you may have rode the market to the bottom, but you should be able to contact the company that handles your 401k without your employer even knowing, and ask. I paid 25% taxes, and the 10% penalty up front, but I didn't have to pay more than 10% up front IIRC. There is a form I had to fax to do with the withdrawal, and that was it.
I could be totally wrong, and your 401K could be different from the ones I have participated in, but I thought I would share my experience, for what its worth.
Just wait until next year if you can... Obama has proposed in the new stimulis package that individuals be allowed to withdrawl I think around 10,000 without any penalties... You might check into that proposal and see
<< <i>Just wait until next year if you can... Obama has proposed in the new stimulis package that individuals be allowed to withdrawl I think around 10,000 without any penalties... You might check into that proposal and see >>
So many diferent promises........
Not all can be done as they conflict with others.
Just remember that a government big enough to do everything for you is big enough to take everything away, and there's nothing you can do.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Just wait until next year if you can... Obama has proposed in the new stimulis package that individuals be allowed to withdrawl I think around 10,000 without any penalties... You might check into that proposal and see >>
I'm sure hoping your not talking about withdrawing 10k a year from a retirement plan. Now wouldn't that be grand we can all spend our retirement in our 40's and 50's and hope they solve the social security mess before we run out Could you just think of what it would be like if the whole retired population only had social security, they would barily make it while the goverment would have a hard time keeping it going. I'm sure it looks good on paper though until you reach what should be retirement.
<< <i> I'm sure hoping your not talking about withdrawing 10k a year from a retirement plan. Now wouldn't that be grand we can all spend our retirement in our 40's and 50's and hope they solve the social security mess before we run out Could you just think of what it would be like if the whole retired population only had social security, they would barily make it while the goverment would have a hard time keeping it going. I'm sure it looks good on paper though until you reach what should be retirement. >>
Absolutely.
Are we now to raid this, the last, meager refuge of savings in this country, and blow that as well??
It doesn't look like anyone intends on using real money of any sort a few years hence.
Could you imagine? Man I'm sure they would have to cut those of us that kept our saving out of social security. I'm also sure they'd have to reduce benfits too but I'm sure they might just come out and tell everyone they can work a full time job and still get the money. Oh what a deal, work until you die.
I bet 1% of the population would take that money and put ii in another inverstment. Then 50 to 60 % would be trying to pay the bills and pay off all that debt they incured over the years. And the rest? God help em, they use that money to "party on dude" with a new source of credit/income but who know they maybe the ones getting the last laugh
21 million state and local employees are welcomed aboard the train to la la land where pensions become only a dream.
US public pension funds face big losses By Deborah Brewster in New York Sunday Oct 26 2008 17:35
Public pension funds in US states are facing their worst year of losses in history, exacerbating existing funding shortfalls and putting pressure on state governments to shore them up. State and local pension funds comprise a patchwork of 2,700 funds that manage $1,400bn on behalf of 21m employees, including teachers, firefighters and other municipal workers.
Susan Uhran, managing director of the Pew Center on the states, said: "They [the states] will have to increase their annual contributions, and they may also ask employees to lift their contributions too."
Many states face their own budget crunches, and members of Congress are pushing for a second fiscal stimulus package, in part to alleviate some of the pressures on state funding. Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, cited money lost from pension funds in her push this month for the $150bn second stimulus.
I am not sure in China there is a perp walk, maybe its just the firing squad?
Perhaps Chinese shares are not a safe haven??
Market swings expose Chinese offshore derivatives trades By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Justine Lau in Hong Kong Sunday Oct 26 2008 17:25
Large fluctuations in global commodity and currency markets have exposed a string of offshore derivatives trades made by large Chinese companies, prompting the government to issue a warning to speculators. In recent weeks, China's securities regulator has again warned companies they are only allowed to use offshore currency and commodity derivatives markets to hedge their physical positions and are forbidden from speculation.
Meanwhile, Citic Pacific, the Hong Kong-listed subsidiary of China's largest state-owned conglomerate, said it faced potential currency losses of about $2bn.
Shares in China Railway Group fell 25.8 per cent last week after the country's biggest railway operator announced a loss of $284m from structured deposits as of September.
China Railway Construction fell 17.8 per cent over the same period after it reported a loss of $46.8m on its foreign exchange holdings during the third quarter while Citic Pacific shares fell 65.2 per cent.
Shenzhen Nanshan Power, a state-owned power producer, said last week it had been told by the local branch of the securities regulator to cancel oil derivative contracts it signed with a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs.
Yepper, methinks this is gonna get ugly. Got lotsa folk thinkin' they are gonna get another stimulus check just in time for Christmas or maybe at least by the time the Christmas credit card bill comes due...ummmmmmhuhhh (oh yes, in conjunction with the elections too, nice play). Lotsa folk with an IRA/401 that is at about 40% of what it was a few short months ago thinkin' that they should leave it in instead of putting it in money market so that it will still be in the stock market when it takes off again...ummmmhuhh. Lots of folk thinkin' that this redistribution or "spread around a little" approach to their money is going to mean they get more cash so they are gonna vote for the guy that's gonna bring it to them...ummmmmmhuhhhh (yeah, bet the farm on this one...what, you don't have a farm?). Lotsa folk thinkin' that gold can't go to 500 or silver to 8...ummmmmhuhhh. Lotsa folk thinkin' their bank savings and sdb are nice and safe...ummmmmhuhhh. Lots of folk wonderin' if they are going to get sucked into the AMT this year hummmmm...well, maybe not but wait till next year when you lose those child credits. Lots of folk thinkin' that all this is a good thing...ummmmmhuhhhh.
Yepper, methinks this is gonna get real ugly if you don't get out of the way.
I don't think there's one person here other than MoneyLA who doesn't think gold or silver could go to $500/$8. We all realize the downside, though would like for it not to occur. We have no control either way, other than not to cave in and give up our physical gold for Comex pricing or anything close to it. MoneyLA is forecasting $300 gold and something similarly low for silver.
Nah, it seems doubtful that gold will fall to 500 but it could it seems. It would not suprise me if it flirted in the 600's as it touches bottom but who's to say anymore. Gold tracked with oil for a while there when oil was rising with all the other commodities but then oil fell with aluminum, copper, plat, etc. but gold mostly held pretty resilient, still clocking in the 700's with little real threat of a collapse. Maybe it's the strength of the dollar that's keeping US$ gold prices lower, maybe it's because there is a demand for liquidity right now and people are throwing everything they have at the margin calls and that includes liquidating physical, maybe it's that everyone's accounts are so beat up that they can't possibly think of letting go of a few grand for a couple of nice saints, there may be many factors that we haven't even connected just yet like the impact of investment portfolios lose 40% of it's value...that ought to spook most folk. I do like the fact that in the face of this across the board economic collapse that gold has not only maintained it's price in USD but that it is still aggressively sought out, particularly in smaller quantities. Certainly no 40% loss with pm gold as it's been between 700 and 900 for a good while now and that doesn't seem like a particularly bad range.
There's talk of manipulation and such but there are much larger issues for those that have the strength to manipulate things right now than a few citizens owning a little gold so the market seems to be just what it looks like. There are probably fewer gold shorts right now than silver short contracts thought there are certainly a substantial number of silver short contracts if I recall from a post last week. It would seem that those that want to bet gold short contracts right now would be a brave breed with hair on their backs, furrowed brows, and ice water for blood and if they have the nads to short gold right now then they are either flaunting a death wish or they are the smartest guys in the room.
I'm quite happy to just watch and accumulate a little where I can. 300 gold...nah, 600 gold...maybe, 700 gold...sure, 1200 gold...come on baby! Mostly in the hunker down mode here, trying to push a little cash into the bucket. I believe it was GS that made a statement about seeing the present for what it is and that the future is not decided until the future and the past was already gone. Future situations will be decided by things that happen in the future and this is not the future, it is now and paper gold is at $736 so physical might be 780...I bet you could sell physical at 780 right now maybe more. We have a big coin show here in a few weeks, maybe I'll shop a slabbed saint and a raw in the box GAE and just see what people offer in terms of cash for physical. See if this decoupling is as bad we perceive it to be. I always hate it when I do that (shop coins) though because when you turn the guy down on the offer he just raises it and then you want to do it and then you get in a wrestling match with yourself and everybody leaves unhappy. Oh well, gold is good, cash is king.
<< <i>Future situations will be decided by things that happen in the future and this is not the future, it is now and paper gold is at $736 so physical might be 780...I bet you could sell physical at 780 right now maybe more. >>
The going rate is much higher than that. $110 to $125 over spot and that's IF you can find it.
My fav shop got 500 1 ounce Gold Eagles in last week, they were gone in hours at that rate.
You could get the $110 over spot on ten or more only. I opted not to buy for now.
The rest of the pricing depended on your relatonship with the shop, but all sold at that range ASAP.
Silver remains at $3 over spot on 100 ounce bars, more than that on smaller amounts....... and there isn't any to be had.
SPOT........ that word used to mean something. Now it's just a commodity price on a paper contract and has little to do with the real world.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I've got to give storm888 a little credit where credit is due - he scared me into holding onto a pile of cash. The pms will shine, but you've got to make it to that point in one piece first.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>There is an article in last night's paper about a woman in Stockton California who is in trouble with her mortgage.
She bought her house for $70,000 about 10 years ago and the value of the house increased to about $236,000 by sometime last year.
Unfortunately, she re-financed "several times" during the intervening years, in order to take equity out of the rising value of her home.
Now that housing prices have crashed, she can't afford to pay her mortgage.
Best of all, she has already received help in paying her mortgage, and now she wants lower mortgage payments.
Guess who she wants to have pay for it? >>
....in that area , it is probably the "black hole" of bad mortgages...the central and south central valley area. From Sacramento to Fresno and beyond. Folks bought homes an hour or three away from work so they could have "the American Dream"...a new home...no matter how far from their job in Silicon Valley.
i know a few people who bought a house for $250k and had it foreclosed for $545,000 on a first mtg....and i know that "extra $250k" is no where to be found in the economic system today...it has vanished....
i have no sympathy for their judgments...and i do not desire my taxes to be raised to pay for it....yet we will and you know we will be double paying (CA residents)....for their pension plans too possibly
another thing that has not hit yet is the fact that CALPERS..(the state employee pension plan of CA) ..the biggest pension plan in the country is in trouble...not beyond meeting their finainacial obligations, yet...and who is the guarantor(sp) should they need money to meet contractual obligations....the taxpayers of CA....
<< <i>There is an article in last night's paper about a woman in Stockton California who is in trouble with her mortgage.
She bought her house for $70,000 about 10 years ago and the value of the house increased to about $236,000 by sometime last year.
Unfortunately, she re-financed "several times" during the intervening years, in order to take equity out of the rising value of her home.
Now that housing prices have crashed, she can't afford to pay her mortgage.
Best of all, she has already received help in paying her mortgage, and now she wants lower mortgage payments.
Guess who she wants to have pay for it? >>
I'm one of those guys who buy foreclosed property and I consistently talk with people about this mess and rarely do I hear any of them mention or know that a vast majority of the defaulted loans are from people that have refinanced their houses 2 or 3 times in the same number of years. Not that there aren't people out there that have been duped by predatory lending, but most were just silly with their house and money.
<< <i>i've been on a retreat this past weekend....
best weekend i have had in a long long time
studied parts of Revelation.
sry for OT
just not much to say today >>
I'm not sure what is relevant any more. But I'm reading Genesis and the Pyramid Texts.
Utterance 257.
304a. To say: There is a clamour in heaven. 304b. "We see a new thing," say the primordial gods. 304c. O Ennead, a Horus is in the rays of the sun. 304d. The lords of form serve him, 304e. the Two Enneads entire serve him,
Mikensay Nice Vette, we should have all bought some of these ten years ago for our retirement!
I think it is important to remember that these folks that sucked billions out of their homes did so in order to spend the money on something else, and that was their choice.
When you read the slant on some of these stories it almost sounds like the person went to closing after running the mortgage up hundreds of thousands, and walked away with nothing.
The money was there; they walked away with it and spent it, knowing that they would have big payments, and a big loan.
I do not see these stories as sad whatsoever, these folks wanted there cash, they got it and now are sad.
What if we bought some stock or gold, borrowed against it on margin, and spent the money on something else, then we had to sell the stocks or gold to pay back the loan. Should the American public feel sorry for us?
Lets all send our pitiful stories of mistakes we made to the newspapers, so everyone can cry on our behalf.
This is better than the Wild West folks, better than the CA gold rush, or the Oklahoma land rush!
The Dow closed up 888 And the S&P up 91
WOW!!! >>
Smoebody in Washington must have finally crawled out of bed and suggested the dollar has to go down.
I doubt there's any other way out of this mess. As painful as it will be there's too damn much debt to be paid off with a dollar that's worth much of anything.
1. The debt can never be paid off except by National Default.
2. The debt can be reduced by dropping the value of the dollar which was done. Further, the debt can be brought into a more rational relationship bu a significant increase in the GNP. However this is just nibbling around the edges.
3. We can cut spending but that will exacerbate the present economic crises.
4. We can raise taxes but again, that will have the sames effect as #3 above.
5. There is no way on G-ds good earth, to pay off the on budget and off budget debt which is now about 70 Trillion Dollars. We are in effect............... screwed!
<< <i>1. The debt can never be paid off except by National Default.
2. The debt can be reduced by dropping the value of the dollar which was done. Further, the debt can be brought into a more rational relationship bu a significant increase in the GNP. However this is just nibbling around the edges.
3. We can cut spending but that will exacerbate the present economic crises.
4. We can raise taxes but again, that will have the sames effect as #3 above.
5. There is no way on G-ds good earth, to pay off the on budget and off budget debt which is now about 70 Trillion Dollars. We are in effect............... screwed! >>
I wouldn't say you're wrong but I would ask what is the most amount of debt we can leave our grandchildren and still make the mortgage payments on our future. From this calculate the proper value of the dollar.
Of course a default isn't impossible but I'm not convinced the crops would get planted and the seed not eaten in the event of a default. It would have to be very carefully engineered. It would have to be planned well in advance. It would be as pol- itically unpalatable as mass starvation.
I'm looking for a lower dollar but this alone will not solve the problems. There has to be a sincere effort at decreasing waste and increasing efficiency or we'll find ourselves in the exact same situation and with hyperinflation.
There is still the looming oil problem and a real common sense need to limit CO2 production to the degree possible. We're not so much screwed as we merely live in interesting times.
WOW what a great idea, why not have every large business in America become a BANK?
This way they can use their depositors money to do all these crazy derivative deals without going to any market for cash.
Why not? The taxpayers are now on the hook for bank deposits up to $250,000.
How many of these bankrupt companies have become banks already?
GMAC Wants to Become Bank After Getting Access to Fed Program
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the money-losing auto finance and home-loan lender, is seeking to become a bank holding company after gaining access to the Federal Reserve's new program designed to unlock short-term commercial credit markets.
Becoming a bank holding company would make it easier for GMAC, the primary lender to customers of General Motors Corp., to participate in the Treasury Department's banking-industry rescue and quell doubts about the lender's survival. The firm could also get direct loans from the central bank and temporary debt guarantees from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Dropping the interest rate will do nothing , because it does nothing about the problems that plague the financial system...Companies are still in the red each quarter so how can the stock market rise....BEAR market and will be for quite sometime!!!! Hmmmm what would China want from us for our debt to be forgiven!!!!!
“1%...isn't this part of the problem that got us here?!”
In a socialist society most of the people are incapable of handling their day-to-day problems or they would not need government help.
Since there are so few people with any real savings the government then always favors those in debt.
Rather than encouraging savings by having a reasonable interest rate, above the inflation rate, paid to those with money to lend or savings in the bank, the government is constantly trying to make it cheaper for those in debt, which in the case of Americans is the majority.
In socialist America, savings is a dirty word, something to be taxed, confiscated via inflation, or forced into RISK i.e. the stock market.
The only recent chance that savers might have had a decent interest rate on their savings was in the hands of other countries, which are now lowering their rates. Therefore that opportunity is evaporating.
Fractal dimensions show the dollar rally essentially expended. Gold is still building. Nichols suggesting up to several months of dollar weakness down to .77-.80. We never did get to the 0.92 and 1.04 is looking awfully unlikely at this point...maybe on the next upleg. The dollar basically got hammered today.
An interesting tidbit from the Legend site:
URGENTLY NEEDED: $20 SAINTS PCGS OR NGC (CAC ONLY). PAYING: 65 $1,750.00 , MS66 $2,750.00 NO CAC, NO PURCHASE! PRICES SUBJECT TO CHANGE. CALL US IF YOU HAVE SOME!
LEGEND HAS RECENTLY BOUGHT AND SOLD THE KING OF MORGANS! THE Vermeule 1893S PCGS MS67 FOR IN EXCESS OF $1,000,000.00!
Seems like the demand for MS65 Saints continues, but CAC only. I recall viewing that Vermeulle 1893-s in 2002 for about 10 minutes and just loved the coin, esp the originality and essentially perfect surfaces. It sold raw for lower to mid $400K in that sale and it occured to me that it would have been a great coin to buy with a small consortium of buyers. I couldn't imagine a technically finer coin. I felt it was essentially MS68. Just a superb MS67 coin.
Banco Azteca: New policy on purchase and sale of silver ‘Libertad’ coins
By: Hugo Salinas Price
snip, snip
Therefore, Banco Azteca will raise the re-purchase price of silver from the public to where the re-purchased quantities equal the quantities sold to the public, always maintaining the necessary margin to cover costs.
....
Sales will be much reduced, from here on, but at least the program adopted will have the virtue of demonstrating what the actual market price of silver ounces is in Mexico , independent of any relation to Comex silver prices.
1. No one knows for sure where gold will be in 6 months or a year from now. If you hold PMs, hold on to them as an insurance policy against the great unknown.
2. If you own stock, hold on to it. It is too late now for you to sell. While the low point may not hold on a retest, I do not think that the Dow will drop more then 10%-15% under its latest low. If you have cash burning a hole in your pocket, do not plunk it into the market all at one time.If you must, nibble. Small amounts of money on a gradual basis weekly or monthly.
3. Select, rare coins in higher grade may well prove to be an excellent store of value. Hold on to the really good stuff.
4. Cash reserves in these times if great uncertainty is a must. We are in for some hard times and a cash cushion is a nice thing to have in case you are laid off, have your hours or OT reduced or unexpected expenses.
5. What ever your financial status......SPEND LESS. Christmas, must not become an excuse to spend more then you can afford . Children will not be emotionally crippled, if they get less gifts and cheaper gifts. Even children must learn to sacrifice, along with the grownups, in hard times.
6. Short term high interest debt such as CREDIT CARDS are poison. If you are using these cards for every day expenses and can not pay it off at the end of each month, you are doomed.
7. Do not lose your sense of humor or your belief in a better future. We will all get thru this, even if it takes a few years.
A few paragraphs into this article is a copy of Alan Greenspan's 1966 essay on the gold standard. He also talks briefly about the causes of the Great Depression.
Comments
I once asked a great buy and hold investor (just ask him) how long he would allow himself to be wrong before admitting that his buy and hold strategy is wrong. He said - "10 years." Somehow I betcha he's still gazing into his crystal ball... and it still says "BUY STOCKS!"
While I can take out a portion of the 401K (my contributions), it's on a loan basis on which you start paying back immediately. I don't believe there is an option with my plan to withdraw the whole thing before age 59-1/2 and simply take a 10% penalty and pay income taxes. If it were only that small of a penalty you would have had millions of people bailing on their 401K's. As I get closer to age 59-1/2 things will get clearer. But right now I'm far enough away that the entire thing could evaporate by then.
roadrunner
There are ways to get money out of a 401(k) plan prior to 59 1/2, it just depends on what your particular plan has in terms of language and requirements.
<< <i>
While I can take out a portion of the 401K (my contributions), it's on a loan basis on which you start paying back immediately. I don't believe there is an option with my plan to withdraw the whole thing before age 59-1/2 and simply take a 10% penalty and pay income taxes. If it were only that small of a penalty you would have had millions of people bailing on their 401K's. As I get closer to age 59-1/2 things will get clearer. But right now I'm far enough away that the entire thing could evaporate by then.
roadrunner >>
You guys know a lot more about most of this stuff than me, and I could be reading this wrong, but you can call your 401k company (Mine is/was Alliance Bernstein) get a form from them, and close out the account if you wish. I can't imagine anyone saying you can't. I did this twice now, once several years ago to buy a house, and again early this year because I didn't like the signs I saw in the market.
Whether right now is a good time is another question, as you may have rode the market to the bottom, but you should be able to contact the company that handles your 401k without your employer even knowing, and ask. I paid 25% taxes, and the 10% penalty up front, but I didn't have to pay more than 10% up front IIRC. There is a form I had to fax to do with the withdrawal, and that was it.
I could be totally wrong, and your 401K could be different from the ones I have participated in, but I thought I would share my experience, for what its worth.
allowed to withdrawl I think around 10,000 without any penalties... You might check into that proposal and see
<< <i>Just wait until next year if you can... Obama has proposed in the new stimulis package that individuals be
allowed to withdrawl I think around 10,000 without any penalties... You might check into that proposal and see >>
So many diferent promises........
Not all can be done as they conflict with others.
Just remember that a government big enough to do everything for you is big enough to take everything away, and there's nothing you can do.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Just wait until next year if you can... Obama has proposed in the new stimulis package that individuals be
allowed to withdrawl I think around 10,000 without any penalties... You might check into that proposal and see >>
I'm sure hoping your not talking about withdrawing 10k a year from a retirement plan. Now wouldn't that be grand we can all spend our retirement in our 40's and 50's and hope they solve the social security mess before we run out
<< <i> I'm sure hoping your not talking about withdrawing 10k a year from a retirement plan. Now wouldn't that be grand we can all spend our retirement in our 40's and 50's and hope they solve the social security mess before we run out
Absolutely.
Are we now to raid this, the last, meager refuge of savings in this country, and blow that as well??
It doesn't look like anyone intends on using real money of any sort a few years hence.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I bet 1% of the population would take that money and put ii in another inverstment. Then 50 to 60 % would be trying to pay the bills and pay off all that debt they incured over the years. And the rest? God help em, they use that money to "party on dude" with a new source of credit/income but who know they maybe the ones getting the last laugh
US public pension funds face big losses
By Deborah Brewster in New York
Sunday Oct 26 2008 17:35
Public pension funds in US states are facing their worst year of losses in history, exacerbating existing funding shortfalls and putting pressure on state governments to shore them up.
State and local pension funds comprise a patchwork of 2,700 funds that manage $1,400bn on behalf of 21m employees, including teachers, firefighters and other municipal workers.
Susan Uhran, managing director of the Pew Center on the states, said: "They [the states] will have to increase their annual contributions, and they may also ask employees to lift their contributions too."
Many states face their own budget crunches, and members of Congress are pushing for a second fiscal stimulus package, in part to alleviate some of the pressures on state funding. Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, cited money lost from pension funds in her push this month for the $150bn second stimulus.
That's one way to avoid the loss of Social Security income due to means testing.
Perhaps Chinese shares are not a safe haven??
Market swings expose Chinese offshore derivatives trades
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Justine Lau in Hong Kong
Sunday Oct 26 2008 17:25
Large fluctuations in global commodity and currency markets have exposed a string of offshore derivatives trades made by large Chinese companies, prompting the government to issue a warning to speculators.
In recent weeks, China's securities regulator has again warned companies they are only allowed to use offshore currency and commodity derivatives markets to hedge their physical positions and are forbidden from speculation.
Meanwhile, Citic Pacific, the Hong Kong-listed subsidiary of China's largest state-owned conglomerate, said it faced potential currency losses of about $2bn.
Shares in China Railway Group fell 25.8 per cent last week after the country's biggest railway operator announced a loss of $284m from structured deposits as of September.
China Railway Construction fell 17.8 per cent over the same period after it reported a loss of $46.8m on its foreign exchange holdings during the third quarter while Citic Pacific shares fell 65.2 per cent.
Shenzhen Nanshan Power, a state-owned power producer, said last week it had been told by the local branch of the securities regulator to cancel oil derivative contracts it signed with a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs.
Another old timer who has been basically right on gold and the Dow since 1970. Worth a short read.
roadrunner
A 'Spread the Wealth' Plan for your 401k?
Banks exploit legal loophole to seize homes
Not all can be done as they conflict with others.
DH has an astute observation here. If you listen carefully, both candidates are promising tons of crap that they know they can't deliver.
And what they are promising is equally disturbing.
I knew it would happen.
Yepper, methinks this is gonna get real ugly if you don't get out of the way.
roadrunner
ECONOMICS GURU: WORST IS YET TO COME; MARKETS WILL CLOSE FOR UP TO WEEK FROM PANIC...
Nouriel Roubini: I fear the worst is yet to come
There's talk of manipulation and such but there are much larger issues for those that have the strength to manipulate things right now than a few citizens owning a little gold so the market seems to be just what it looks like. There are probably fewer gold shorts right now than silver short contracts thought there are certainly a substantial number of silver short contracts if I recall from a post last week. It would seem that those that want to bet gold short contracts right now would be a brave breed with hair on their backs, furrowed brows, and ice water for blood and if they have the nads to short gold right now then they are either flaunting a death wish or they are the smartest guys in the room.
I'm quite happy to just watch and accumulate a little where I can. 300 gold...nah, 600 gold...maybe, 700 gold...sure, 1200 gold...come on baby! Mostly in the hunker down mode here, trying to push a little cash into the bucket. I believe it was GS that made a statement about seeing the present for what it is and that the future is not decided until the future and the past was already gone. Future situations will be decided by things that happen in the future and this is not the future, it is now and paper gold is at $736 so physical might be 780...I bet you could sell physical at 780 right now maybe more. We have a big coin show here in a few weeks, maybe I'll shop a slabbed saint and a raw in the box GAE and just see what people offer in terms of cash for physical. See if this decoupling is as bad we perceive it to be. I always hate it when I do that (shop coins) though because when you turn the guy down on the offer he just raises it and then you want to do it and then you get in a wrestling match with yourself and everybody leaves unhappy. Oh well, gold is good, cash is king.
best weekend i have had in a long long time
studied parts of Revelation.
sry for OT
just not much to say today
<< <i>Future situations will be decided by things that happen in the future and this is not the future, it is now and paper gold is at $736 so physical might be 780...I bet you could sell physical at 780 right now maybe more. >>
The going rate is much higher than that. $110 to $125 over spot and that's IF you can find it.
My fav shop got 500 1 ounce Gold Eagles in last week, they were gone in hours at that rate.
You could get the $110 over spot on ten or more only. I opted not to buy for now.
The rest of the pricing depended on your relatonship with the shop, but all sold at that range ASAP.
Silver remains at $3 over spot on 100 ounce bars, more than that on smaller amounts....... and there isn't any to be had.
SPOT........ that word used to mean something. Now it's just a commodity price on a paper contract and has little to do with the real world.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
what is it? was it a way to borrow yen at 0% interest and then "buy" or invest in other currencies?
what are the ramifications of the yen getting stronger?Yen "carry trade"
I knew it would happen.
i can't follow the graphs, yet some more kindling for the paper gold.
She bought her house for $70,000 about 10 years ago and the value of the house increased to about $236,000 by sometime last year.
Unfortunately, she re-financed "several times" during the intervening years, in order to take equity out of the rising value of her home.
Now that housing prices have crashed, she can't afford to pay her mortgage.
Best of all, she has already received help in paying her mortgage, and now she wants lower mortgage payments.
Guess who she wants to have pay for it?
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>There is an article in last night's paper about a woman in Stockton California who is in trouble with her mortgage.
She bought her house for $70,000 about 10 years ago and the value of the house increased to about $236,000 by sometime last year.
Unfortunately, she re-financed "several times" during the intervening years, in order to take equity out of the rising value of her home.
Now that housing prices have crashed, she can't afford to pay her mortgage.
Best of all, she has already received help in paying her mortgage, and now she wants lower mortgage payments.
Guess who she wants to have pay for it? >>
....in that area , it is probably the "black hole" of bad mortgages...the central and south central valley area. From Sacramento to Fresno and beyond. Folks bought homes an hour or three away from work so they could have "the American Dream"...a new home...no matter how far from their job in Silicon Valley.
i know a few people who bought a house for $250k and had it foreclosed for $545,000 on a first mtg....and i know that "extra $250k" is no where to be found in the economic system today...it has vanished....
i have no sympathy for their judgments...and i do not desire my taxes to be raised to pay for it....yet we will and you know we will be double paying (CA residents)....for their pension plans too possibly
another thing that has not hit yet is the fact that CALPERS..(the state employee pension plan of CA) ..the biggest pension plan in the country is in trouble...not beyond meeting their finainacial obligations, yet...and who is the guarantor(sp) should they need money to meet contractual obligations....the taxpayers of CA....
<< <i>There is an article in last night's paper about a woman in Stockton California who is in trouble with her mortgage.
She bought her house for $70,000 about 10 years ago and the value of the house increased to about $236,000 by sometime last year.
Unfortunately, she re-financed "several times" during the intervening years, in order to take equity out of the rising value of her home.
Now that housing prices have crashed, she can't afford to pay her mortgage.
Best of all, she has already received help in paying her mortgage, and now she wants lower mortgage payments.
Guess who she wants to have pay for it? >>
I'm one of those guys who buy foreclosed property and I consistently talk with people about this mess and rarely do I hear any of them mention or know that a vast majority of the defaulted loans are from people that have refinanced their houses 2 or 3 times in the same number of years. Not that there aren't people out there that have been duped by predatory lending, but most were just silly with their house and money.
<< <i>i've been on a retreat this past weekend....
best weekend i have had in a long long time
studied parts of Revelation.
sry for OT
just not much to say today >>
I'm not sure what is relevant any more. But I'm reading Genesis and the Pyramid Texts.
Utterance 257.
304a. To say: There is a clamour in heaven.
304b. "We see a new thing," say the primordial gods.
304c. O Ennead, a Horus is in the rays of the sun.
304d. The lords of form serve him,
304e. the Two Enneads entire serve him,
I knew it would happen.
Nice Vette, we should have all bought some of these ten years ago for our retirement!
I think it is important to remember that these folks that sucked billions out of their homes did so in order to spend the money on something else, and that was their choice.
When you read the slant on some of these stories it almost sounds like the person went to closing after running the mortgage up hundreds of thousands, and walked away with nothing.
The money was there; they walked away with it and spent it, knowing that they would have big payments, and a big loan.
I do not see these stories as sad whatsoever, these folks wanted there cash, they got it and now are sad.
What if we bought some stock or gold, borrowed against it on margin, and spent the money on something else, then we had to sell the stocks or gold to pay back the loan. Should the American public feel sorry for us?
Lets all send our pitiful stories of mistakes we made to the newspapers, so everyone can cry on our behalf.
This is better than the Wild West folks, better than the CA gold rush, or the Oklahoma land rush!
The Dow closed up 888
And the S&P up 91
WOW!!!
<< <i>Sooooooooooooo??? should I sell gold scrap today or wait.? >>
You remember that Seinfeld Episode where George decides to try doing the opposite of what he normally would do, and it works out well?
Take in the Market's signs, and be George, lately that seems to be working well.
<< <i>Well I guess the crisis is over!
This is better than the Wild West folks, better than the CA gold rush, or the Oklahoma land rush!
The Dow closed up 888
And the S&P up 91
WOW!!! >>
Smoebody in Washington must have finally crawled out of bed and suggested the dollar has to go down.
I doubt there's any other way out of this mess. As painful as it will be there's too damn much debt to be paid off with a dollar that's worth much of anything.
2. The debt can be reduced by dropping the value of the dollar which
was done. Further, the debt can be brought into a more rational relationship
bu a significant increase in the GNP. However this is just nibbling around the
edges.
3. We can cut spending but that will exacerbate the present economic crises.
4. We can raise taxes but again, that will have the sames effect as #3 above.
5. There is no way on G-ds good earth, to pay off the on budget and off budget
debt which is now about 70 Trillion Dollars. We are in effect............... screwed!
Camelot
<< <i>1. The debt can never be paid off except by National Default.
2. The debt can be reduced by dropping the value of the dollar which
was done. Further, the debt can be brought into a more rational relationship
bu a significant increase in the GNP. However this is just nibbling around the
edges.
3. We can cut spending but that will exacerbate the present economic crises.
4. We can raise taxes but again, that will have the sames effect as #3 above.
5. There is no way on G-ds good earth, to pay off the on budget and off budget
debt which is now about 70 Trillion Dollars. We are in effect............... screwed! >>
I wouldn't say you're wrong but I would ask what is the most
amount of debt we can leave our grandchildren and still make
the mortgage payments on our future. From this calculate the
proper value of the dollar.
Of course a default isn't impossible but I'm not convinced the
crops would get planted and the seed not eaten in the event
of a default. It would have to be very carefully engineered. It
would have to be planned well in advance. It would be as pol-
itically unpalatable as mass starvation.
I'm looking for a lower dollar but this alone will not solve the
problems. There has to be a sincere effort at decreasing waste
and increasing efficiency or we'll find ourselves in the exact same
situation and with hyperinflation.
There is still the looming oil problem and a real common sense
need to limit CO2 production to the degree possible. We're not
so much screwed as we merely live in interesting times.
<< <i>
<< <i>Sooooooooooooo??? should I sell gold scrap today or wait.? >>
You remember that Seinfeld Episode where George decides to try doing the opposite of what he normally would do, and it works out well?
Take in the Market's signs, and be George, lately that seems to be working well. >>
For you...no soup...one year!
WOW what a great idea, why not have every large business in America become a BANK?
This way they can use their depositors money to do all these crazy derivative deals without going to any market for cash.
Why not? The taxpayers are now on the hook for bank deposits up to $250,000.
How many of these bankrupt companies have become banks already?
GMAC Wants to Become Bank After Getting Access to Fed Program
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the money-losing auto finance and home-loan lender, is seeking to become a bank holding company after gaining access to the Federal Reserve's new program designed to unlock short-term commercial credit markets.
Becoming a bank holding company would make it easier for GMAC, the primary lender to customers of General Motors Corp., to participate in the Treasury Department's banking-industry rescue and quell doubts about the lender's survival. The firm could also get direct loans from the central bank and temporary debt guarantees from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
<< <i>Well interest rates are now 1% (reduced by 1/2 point). Let's see where the stock market goes from here. IMO the run won't last long. >>
1%...isn't this part of the problem that got us here?!
R
In a socialist society most of the people are incapable of handling their day-to-day problems or they would not need government help.
Since there are so few people with any real savings the government then always favors those in debt.
Rather than encouraging savings by having a reasonable interest rate, above the inflation rate, paid to those with money to lend or savings in the bank, the government is constantly trying to make it cheaper for those in debt, which in the case of Americans is the majority.
In socialist America, savings is a dirty word, something to be taxed, confiscated via inflation, or forced into RISK i.e. the stock market.
The only recent chance that savers might have had a decent interest rate on their savings was in the hands of other countries, which are now lowering their rates. Therefore that opportunity is evaporating.
Fractal dimensions show the dollar rally essentially expended. Gold is still building. Nichols suggesting up to several months of dollar weakness down to .77-.80. We never did get to the 0.92 and 1.04 is looking awfully unlikely at this point...maybe on the next upleg. The dollar basically got hammered today.
An interesting tidbit from the Legend site:
URGENTLY NEEDED: $20 SAINTS PCGS OR NGC (CAC ONLY).
PAYING: 65 $1,750.00 , MS66 $2,750.00 NO CAC, NO PURCHASE! PRICES SUBJECT TO CHANGE. CALL US IF YOU HAVE SOME!
LEGEND HAS RECENTLY BOUGHT AND SOLD THE KING OF MORGANS! THE Vermeule 1893S PCGS MS67 FOR IN EXCESS OF $1,000,000.00!
Seems like the demand for MS65 Saints continues, but CAC only. I recall viewing that Vermeulle 1893-s in 2002 for about 10 minutes and just loved the coin, esp the originality and essentially perfect surfaces. It sold raw for lower to mid $400K in that sale and it occured to me that it would have been a great coin to buy with a small consortium of buyers. I couldn't imagine a technically finer coin. I felt it was essentially MS68. Just a superb MS67 coin.
roadrunner
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1225389017.php
Banco Azteca: New policy on purchase and sale of silver ‘Libertad’ coins
By: Hugo Salinas Price
snip, snip
Therefore, Banco Azteca will raise the re-purchase price of silver from the public to where the re-purchased quantities equal the quantities sold to the public, always maintaining the necessary margin to cover costs.
....
Sales will be much reduced, from here on, but at least the program adopted will have the virtue of demonstrating what the actual market price of silver ounces is in Mexico , independent of any relation to Comex silver prices.
snip, snip
1. No one knows for sure where gold will be in 6 months
or a year from now. If you hold PMs, hold on to them as
an insurance policy against the great unknown.
2. If you own stock, hold on to it. It is too late now for you to
sell. While the low point may not hold on a retest, I do not think
that the Dow will drop more then 10%-15% under its latest low. If you
have cash burning a hole in your pocket, do not plunk it into the market all
at one time.If you must, nibble. Small amounts of money on a gradual
basis weekly or monthly.
3. Select, rare coins in higher grade may well prove to be an excellent store
of value. Hold on to the really good stuff.
4. Cash reserves in these times if great uncertainty is a must. We are in for
some hard times and a cash cushion is a nice thing to have in case you are laid off,
have your hours or OT reduced or unexpected expenses.
5. What ever your financial status......SPEND LESS. Christmas, must not become an excuse
to spend more then you can afford . Children will not be emotionally crippled, if they get less
gifts and cheaper gifts. Even children must learn to sacrifice, along with the grownups, in hard times.
6. Short term high interest debt such as CREDIT CARDS are poison. If you are using these cards
for every day expenses and can not pay it off at the end of each month, you are doomed.
7. Do not lose your sense of humor or your belief in a better future. We will all get thru this, even
if it takes a few years.
Camelot
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
A few paragraphs into this article is a copy of Alan Greenspan's 1966 essay on the gold standard. He also talks briefly about the causes of the Great Depression.
roadrunner