Thanks mhammerman. I hope you all know I am just joking about the self flattery.
I have just been sensing a strong feeling of emotions in recent weeks and want to remind everyone that emotion has absolutely no place in investment. Emotion and money never mix well.
I will be meeting with a regional manager of the FDIC next weekend. Are there any specific concerns or questions that you (the board) would like me to ask?
<< <i>I have just been sensing a strong feeling of emotions in recent weeks and want to remind everyone that emotion has absolutely no place in investment. >>
That's just effing condescending.
While I agree that emotions shouldn't influence investments, those should be a well though out long term plan, this recent siuation has nothng to do with that whatsoever.
How would you feel if you had a gun put to your head and were robbed of 40% of your investments? Would you have any "emotions"?
Or better yet, you come home and discover you were robbed as were your friends and neighbors and there are fingerprints left all over, but the police tell you it was "legally lifted", you have no recourse and yes, they can come back and do it again with the full support of the authorities. Then you tell your friends and neighbors how smart you are and there is no need for them to react to their losses. I'd imagine that they'd drag you down from your ivory tower and beat the crap out of you.
I've been sensing a strong feeling that some people might need to get down off their high horse and join the community and cease creating ill emotion from others. People do have memories and that does go along with both investments and forums.
I think people should keep in mind that silver is still about 13% up over where it was 12 months ago. That's a damn sight better than most investments.
I've been through more spikes and floors dropping out than most over the years and yes, I am just fine and still active in metals. The bulk of my stuff was purchased long ago, though I remain active and continue to add to the hoard.
I can remember when silver was nearly cut in half from 8.50 or so down to the 4.75 range if memory serves, and it wasn't all that long ago. In fact, I made a killing on that and did it with physical, not any paper certificates. I happened to catch a fast moving elevator on the way up and sell out at the peak. Then I bought back in and pocketed a nice differential. I got hammered by a number of board members back then, called all sorts of names, still have some of the nastiest PMs one could imagine. All because of my belief that we were due for a tremendous spike and I actually mortgaged a paid off home to help me pull it off. RR remembers back then, he was one of the few supportive individuals.
While emotions shouldn't play a part in one's plans, we are human (at least most of us) and the results of our plans will bring elation or some sadness. To expect anything else is foolish.
Just kidding about the rest, sort of.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
A legalized mugging is what took place in the markets. And I'm not totally convinced that it was in fact legal. While the FED may have certain powers.... how can it be that a major bank can have that 'insider' status to make untold fistfulls of money at the expense of those that were harmed by the manipulation?? Something is very much not right with that.
And even those who do not believe that much in the PM's should be greatly concerned on what has happened with the manipulation. If there is in fact this type of insider manipulation taking place with the metals, then realize that it can also take place with other investments. If you have not lost money with this PM ax job, then rest assured that they will probably get you in some other similar transaction.
To me, the main issue is the 'insider' status that was given to the banks. They have become the 'brown shirts' of the FED. Special insider status to go mug and strong arm the populace to keep them in order.
It was alluded to in an earlier post that a lawsuit is starting to take shape regarding this recent PM 'adjustment'.
I hope that it does take place, just for the possibility that the public may get a chance to see what is, or is not, taking place with the PM market / industry.
Do we REALLY have a free market in the PM's....... or do we not. When one goes to a casino to gamble, one wants to know what the rules of the game are, and have at least a reasonable assurance that the cards are not marked or the game is rigged.
How would you feel if you had a gun put to your head and were robbed of 40% of your investments? Would you have any "emotions"?
And this is a classic example of the emotion I am concerned about. No one robbed you of anything. You are not entitled to anything. I supposed you think you were robbed because your house declined by 200k after it rose 300k.
You have made up your mind about PMs and I admire your conviction.
I will relate a story of when I was a broker. We had a client who was convinced that JDSU was going to make him wealthy beyond comprehension. He was in his mid/late 50s and had about $500k in a IRA. He put it all in JDSU stock. Well, he was right. He turned that 500k in to almost 6 million in less that 18 months. Then the stock started to crack. We told him to sell at least 1/2 and put that into A-rated corp bonds that were yielding 8% at the time. He could have locked in a $250k per year income and still held a large position in JDSU. He said "no way". He was convinced that the internet would change commerc e and JDSU had the technology to make that happen. About 18 months after his acct was worth 6 million, it was worth 200K.
He had lost the opportunity for a fantastic lifestyle in retirement and he had lost 3 years of his life. Now at the age of 60, he no longer had enough live comfortably. And to think he was exactly right. JDSU did maker him a multimillionaire and the internet did change commerce. And yet he was so wrong.
I am not trying to sound condescending and if you perceived that then I am sorry, but you must also consider why you perceived my comments in the way you did.
The average miner pulls gold out of the ground at about $450 yet sells it for $800. Where did the extra $350 come from? Talk about printing money!! Same could be said for the oil producers.
OK. How about clothing retailers who mark up some 500% or jewelers who mark up 500-1000%? Where did the extra money come from
Brian, this is not even remotely the same. Marking up a pair of jeans doesnt not create money. In fact it is propably just the opposite.Can you take that $50 pair of jeans and redeem it for $50 cash? No. But you can take that newly created oz of gold and redeem it for cash.
We are assuming in this thread that gold is a currency. Jeans are not currency.
Brian, I will be meeting with the PPT this weekend--JPM, FDIC, and a hedge fund guy. I am giving you the opportunity to ask the them any question you would like. What you you like my to ask?
Brian, this is not even remotely the same. Marking up a pair of jeans doesnt not create money. In fact it is propably just the opposite.Can you take that $50 pair of jeans and redeem it for $50 cash? No. But you can take that newly created oz of gold and redeem it for cash.
We are assuming in this thread that gold is a currency. Jeans are not currency.
Brian, I will be meeting with the PPT this weekend--JPM, FDIC, and a hedge fund guy. I am giving you the opportunity to ask the them any question you would like. What you you like my to ask?
1. I'm glad that people are starting to think of gold as currency.
2. Those jeans can be turned in for cash or similar barter, and well above the price they were manufactured for. Substitute soy, corn, coffee, beef, oil, gas, coins, art, pez dispensers, base ball cards, silverware, tools, beanie babies, etc. and you have items that have a cash value structure. It is very much the same as gold. Those jeans or other clothing are marked up several times their actual cost as they make the rounds to the end user. Those jeans may have cost $5 to make and have market value almost anywhere for 2X or 3X or 4X that amount. Money is created. Those Jeans have more real value than a $100 bill which is printed on security paper worth pennies. Down the road those jeans might be worth more than a $100 bill. In the Weimar scenario, the people were buying ANY hard goods they could before the currency devalued a few hours later. Hard goods were the only true money vs. the Weimar Mark.
4. Ask the FDIC how many weeks/months they anticipate before they run out money and have to be bailed out themselves. I'm sure they have discussed this at length with their superiors.
2. Those jeans can be turned in for cash or similar barter, and well above the price they were manufactured for. Substitute soy, corn, coffee, beef, oil, gas, coins, art, pez dispensers, base ball cards, silverware, tools, beanie babies, etc. and you have items that have a cash value structure. It is very much the same as gold. Those jeans or other clothing are marked up several times their actual cost as they make the rounds to the end user. Those jeans may have cost $5 to make and have market value almost anywhere for 2X or 3X or 4X that amount. Money is created. Those Jeans have more real value than a $100 bill which is printed on security paper worth pennies. Down the road those jeans might be worth more than a $100 bill. In the Weimar scenario, the people were buying ANY hard goods they could before the currency devalued a few hours later. Hard goods were the only true money vs. the Weimar Mark.
Keep in mind that every time the jeans change hands costs are incurred. Raw materials, manufacturing labor, transportation, inventory, retail labor, taxes etc. So money isn't really created, it's just allocated to produce and deliver a good. And for that to happen, another good will not be produced or another service rendered, so there's an opportunity cost as well. The end user will pay money that he earned in order to compensate the retailer for his costs plus some profit. The money doesn't really come out of thin air, it just moves around.
I've always contended that PMs were some sort of currency. We will have to disagree on the validity of the jeans vs gold analogy.
Ask the FDIC how many weeks/months they anticipate before they run out money and have to be bailed out themselves. I'm sure they have discussed this at length with their superiors.
Is there anything else you would like to know? Seriously.
While we wait for the FDIC meeting report, something finally sunk in to my little thinker today. We have innudated the entire civilized world with FRN's. The world is swimming in them, every where. The FRN's comprise a lot of the wealth that is on the books right now so they have plenty of value. As an exercise, reach into your pocket and report how many yen's or euros you have right now. You will probably answer...none; though I'm sure there are exceptions. Now if you did the same exercise in Japan or Dubai or Frankfurt and asked how many FRN's were in their pockets, I bet there would be a fair percentage that would at least pull out a few. So our financial culture is woven into societies across the world. No big shocker, I was just contemplating the meaning of this phenomenon.
No big shocker, I was just contemplating the meaning of this phenomenon.
It probably just means that the USA is the largest economy in the world and that USD are in demand and accepted the world over. Whereas the yen and Euro may not be.
Is this one reason the commodities, miners, and energy stocks are down?
It looks like some of the Wall Street players are getting caught in their own manipulations.
Ospraie’s flagship fund to be shut down By Anuj Gangahar and Julie MacIntosh in New York Published: September 3 2008 00:37 | Last updated: September 3 2008 12:30
Ospraie Management, the US hedge fund firm run by commodities trader Dwight Anderson and part owned by Lehman Brothers, is to shut down its flagship fund and return money to investors after the fund suffered heavy losses in August. The Ospraie Fund, which was launched in February 2000, lost 26.7 per cent in August and was down 38.6 per cent over the year to date. It had about $2.8bn at the start of August.
In a letter to investors, seen by the Financial Times, Mr Anderson wrote: “I am extremely disappointed with this result and the fund’s sudden reversal in performance.” The losses were primarily caused by a sell-off in the fund’s energy, mining and resource equity holdings.
The letter said the balance of the fund’s assets, which will consist mostly of illiquid investments, will be returned as investments are sold off. The letter said it could take as long as three years to dispose of remaining portions of the portfolio.
How many of these bonds do the Wall Street banks have?
Islamic Bond Decree Cripples Sukuk, Imperils Projects (Update1) By Haris Anwar Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The fastest-growing part of the global bond market is faltering, and it has nothing to do with subprime mortgages or the credit crunch.
Sales of Shariah-compliant debt, which financed Dubai's Palm development, the world's largest man-made island and where David Beckham and Donald Trump have homes, fell 50 percent in 2008 and prices dropped an average 1.51 percent, according to HSBC Holdings Plc index data. The so-called sukuk market, which has doubled each year since 2004 and grown to $90 billion.
The bonds satisfy Islam's ban on interest by allowing investors to profit from the exchange of assets, rather than money.
More than half a trillion dollars in worldwide credit writedowns and losses squeezed lending in the Mideast as the Dubai Financial Market Real Estate Index of property-related stocks dropped 19 percent since January. Morgan Stanley analysts predict a 10 percent decline in property prices by 2010.
Citigroup's panel of Shariah scholars in London is led by Sheikh Nizam Yaquby, former chairman of the Bahrain-based accounting board. Yaquby, who advises about 40 financial institutions on Islamic financing rules, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News.
This entire market has become one giant circle jerk.
The government and Freddie and Fanny cannot sell its paper so the central bankers manipulates the dollar higher.
Many of the Hedge funds, pension funds, etc. that have moved billions into the energy and commodity space are now losing billions with the false strengthening of the dollar.
As these big funds start to fail the government and the Fed step in to supply capitol, and print more debt to be sold thereby weakening the dollar.
This whole market is just too erratic to be invested in. I for one am going to cover my small margin and just set and do nothing for a few months until these clowns play their games out.
"...just set and do nothing for a few months until these clowns play their games out."
Well there are those that will state that there is profit to be made from chaos but I'll be darned if I can tell whether to flip or fly. If the Oracle of Omaha can't profit in this market then us hacks sure don't have particularly good odds methinks. Excellent time to hide and watch, keep the powder dry but the eyes open but most of all, don't let the manipulators scare anyone out of their positions...this is all an illusion created to baffle and amaze...there is truly nothing to see here, move along.
Now, if you want to actually put your finger on the pulse of what is happening, check out the building permits issued for the last few quarters in your area of interest local, state, or national. If you get a heartbeat at all, just compare the number of building permits by quarter and you will get a feel for where your economy area of interest is and where it is going. Oh yes, look at total building permits by dollar value, not the number of permits issued and don't try and divine some meaning by breaking out residential, office, etc. This will tell you if there is any activity and if there isn't any then it's a good time to wait till there is.
If they build it they will come? The Bonds are unsustainable! Short them!
Ever since I saw this project years ago, my first thought is how will they fill it?
It's concept is like Disney World Orlando without the rides. You take worthless real estate and you pump money into it and build it to be *perfect*.
Problem is, that the ONLY reason anyone would go there is because the Oil Money is buying its residents.
Unlike Orlando, once you get there, you have to be looking over your shoulder all the time for the mujahedeen a$$ holes who will cut off your family's heads for religious reasons.
Potential beheading is not a good trade-off for water-front property and access to good shopping, IMHO.
FWIW i think raising interest rates by the ECB therefore undermining their own fiat currency and boosting the USdollar AND global demand for the drop in oil.
i feel the same way too about the markets GOLDSAINT (as stated in your first sentence of your last post above)
Rather than Drill, Drill, Drill, Mr Gross's war cry is Print, Print, Print!
U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Tsunami,' Gross Says (Update3)
By Jody Shenn
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government needs to start using more of its money to support markets to stem a burgeoning ``financial tsunami,'' according to Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund.
Banks, securities firms and hedge funds are dumping assets, driving down prices of bonds, real estate, stocks and commodities, Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said in commentary posted on the firm's Web site today.
``Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami,'' Gross said. ``If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury.''
WOW!!!!! 51 years on this earth and i have never seen a stock market like this. Just hold on to your money or get some gold or silver that never will go to zero!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I may pull the trigger on 100 OZ of silver on friday. The hell with the IRA contribution this year will invest it in silver and gold.
<< <i>WOW!!!!! 51 years on this earth and i have never seen a stock market like this. Just hold on to your money or get some gold or silver that never will go to zero!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >>
yep. Even though gold and silver are not doing well.... looks like the stock market is doing even worse. Seems to be best just to hold on to cash for now.
we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury
Exactly what does that mean?
As I "open up" the balance sheet of my own business, I see "Assets" and I see "Liabilities".
I assume that when I "open up" the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury, I see the same thing, only with hugely larger numbers.
I also notice that when I compare the "Assets" number to the "Liabilities" number, they are equal.
However, in this case I believe that by "opening up" the U.S. Treasury's balance sheet, Mr. Gross must mean to increase the numbers for both "Assets" AND "Liabilities".
How absolutely COOL!!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I just thought I would see where gold, platinum and silver were on a year to date basis as well. An it looks like 5, 10 and 15 percent down respectively as a rough cut from kitco charts. It seems that quality bonds were the place to be this year. It will be interesting to see where the market goes after the election.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
For the last 50 years, there have been 6 bear markets with equal or greater drops and volatility over the last 50 years.
We are obviously in a bear market now, and no one knows where it will end, but if the market continues to drop, that will put pressure on metals prices, not support them. Destruction of wealth is a negative for commodity prices.
<< <i>yep. Even though gold and silver are not doing well.... looks like the stock market is doing even worse. Seems to be best just to hold on to cash for now. >>
No doubt we can retest and already are retesting certain levels as of today. If sentiment gets real bearish we could bounce. But I wouldn't bet on it, quite yet. Bear markets, the last 100 years have averaged about 1.6 years in duration with an average drop of a little more than 30%, so it would probably be reasonable to expect another 10% or so down and 6-9 months before any real uptrend takes place. Although, no bear markets are ever the same, and we will have to let this play out over time, we certainly have seen this type of down trend and volatility before, as recently as 2003, even if everyone wasn't always watching
<< <i>yep. Even though gold and silver are not doing well.... looks like the stock market is doing even worse. Seems to be best just to hold on to cash for now. >>
honestly, i think that is what many many people are doing right now.
"holding" onto it means different things to different people, some it is surviving, others it may be getting out of all financials for a period of time.
<< <i>DID 2003 have the PM drop down along with oil. >>
oil, gold and the dow all made their lows in late march of 2003(oil retested in may) and moved higher for the balance of the year, although oil lagged gold and the dow for the year.
It is not inconceivable that there could be something similar to the WPA and the CCC reintroduced to the Federal programs and make participation mandatory prior to eligibility into entitlement programs. When I asked my dad what was the one thing that he thought was most important to ending the depression his answer was quick and simple..."There were jobs". With the abundance of welfare receipients and the multitude of Federal programs that support those that won't or don't work, it would make sense to simplify the entire entitlements package and make entitlements dependent on contributing to society via working with some public program. Kind of like the Kennedy quote..."Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country." It would be very interesting to reintroduce this mindset in place of the endless "programs" and entitlements that just seem to grow less and less effective for educating people and providing for the welfare and public health of individuals. In the end, education is the one thing that separates the haves from the have nots and anyone can get an education; there is absolutely no acceptable excuse for not having a basic, formal education. Of course with the 50% drop out rate in our public schools, it seems that if they aren't going to go to school then they could at least help out with some projects instead of clogging up our judicial system and entitlement programs. So, you drop out, you join the military or the WPA/CCC, what's so darned hard about that?
Public health care...hey how about public day care, that would release the care givers to participate in creating something instead of demanding that more be done for them; give everyone a sense of ownership instead of a sense of entitlement, give people a chance to get an education instead of a chance to get in line for benefits. This may be a bit ahead of the curve but it is certainly going to be important to a crippled economy to have people giving more instead of demanding and expecting more and I'm not talking about working till you're 70 either. Look for something like this new thinking (ala 1934) to surface in the next year or so. It's kind of a no brainer, instead of stripping the budget to pay for entitlements and programs, use that money to pay for projects and give people a chance to participate in making something better.
Social engineering is going to be a hot topic and it will probably be sugar coated and dipped in butter but look for it. I'm just wondering who will be brave enough to say it. So you can either raise taxes to pay for this stuff or you can lower taxes and have people take ownership. At some point, and maybe in the near future, the tax burden will be so excessive that the system will collapse. Of course you have to take into consideration that the cube dwellers are being taxed at about 50% of their income right now...IR S, property tax, fuel tax, sales tax, state income tax (in some places), etc. One of the more interesting things that crossed my thinking is that there is so much emphasis on the role of small business in the economic community but you know the first form you fill out every quarter is self employment tax...now, if they wanted you to make money and be successful, why would the first thing you pay be self employment tax; things that make you go DUH? I mean, why isn't there something like a self employment credit or a self employment incentive...once again, DUH?
Oh well, my Saturday diatribe on a Friday (it's a slow afternoon).
As of this writing eyeballing the charts, it looks like gold down about 5% from Jan 1, 2008, silver down about 23%.
One year charts from Kitco
The loss from the highs of the year, for those few that bought near the top, the eyeball estimate gives gold down about 24% ($1040 to $795) silver down about 43% ($20.50 to $12.20)
Might as well toss in the 1 year change for gold: +18%
The FED and PPT is trying to paint the economy as good as commodities as bad. There is no limit as to what they will attempt to do towards this goal. Without their shenanigans in the S&P and Dow they would have spun out of control a long time ago.
This is all coming to a head in the "120 year" economic cycle. The last complete washout was in the early 1890's. We're still on track to bottom out stocks somewhere in 2011-2016.
I guess more big depositors can kiss their money goodbye?
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Silver State Bank of Henderson, Nevada was closed by U.S. regulators, the 11th bank to collapse this year amid a surge in soured real-estate loans stemming from the worst housing slump since the Depression.
Silver State, with $2 billion in assets and $1.7 billion in deposits, was shut by the Nevada Financial Institutions Division and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Nevada State will buy insured deposits for a 1.3 percent premium, the FDIC said. Silver State had about $20 million in uninsured deposits in 500 accounts.
Silver State's shares were unchanged at 56 cents in regular trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market yesterday and have tumbled 97 percent in the past year.
'The Worst Economic Downturn In 60 Years' by Gary North
So said the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the senior economic official in Great Britain. The story ran on August 30.
Britain is facing "arguably the worst" economic downturn in 60 years which will be "more profound and long-lasting" than people had expected, Alistair Darling, the chancellor, tells the Guardian today. In the government's gravest assessment of the economy, which follows a warning from a Bank of England policymaker that 2 million people could be out of work by Christmas, Darling admits he had no idea how serious the credit crunch would become.
It was later reported by another source that the interview had taken place two weeks earlier.
This means that the economy by mid-August had convinced the Chancellor to give the interview.
I recall no negative economic statement this forthright by any incumbent senior politician in my lifetime. This simply is not done.
mhammerman, Your "diatribe" yesterday poses some interesting possibilities for our economy with the reintroduction of WPA/CCC-like programs. Social engineering and Universal Health Care and other mandatory programs paid by even more tax dollars. I can say that I don't want to live in that kind of economy or country. It has a certain -ist feeling to it. But I won't give up without a fight.
Public Allies is such a combined program that started 16 years ago, 2,200 organizers strong, funded by our tax money through the AmeriCorps and when fully funded will cost us $500 billion to achieve "...a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded" as the military. Some don't care to pay off the debt and be more fiscally responsible, some want us to go further into debt to achieve a collapse that will dissolve the middle class once and for all.
Oh, and the timely bailout of Fannie and Freddie this weekend helps these causes to move right along.
The first paragraph pretty much says it all...and then it just gets worse. One can see how all this unfolds.
Comments
I have just been sensing a strong feeling of emotions in recent weeks and want to remind everyone that emotion has absolutely no place in investment. Emotion and money never mix well.
I will be meeting with a regional manager of the FDIC next weekend. Are there any specific concerns or questions that you (the board) would like me to ask?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I have just been sensing a strong feeling of emotions in recent weeks and want to remind everyone that emotion has absolutely no place in investment. >>
That's just effing condescending.
While I agree that emotions shouldn't influence investments, those should be a well though out long term plan, this recent siuation has nothng to do with that whatsoever.
How would you feel if you had a gun put to your head and were robbed of 40% of your investments? Would you have any "emotions"?
Or better yet, you come home and discover you were robbed as were your friends and neighbors and there are fingerprints left all over, but the police tell you it was "legally lifted", you have no recourse and yes, they can come back and do it again with the full support of the authorities. Then you tell your friends and neighbors how smart you are and there is no need for them to react to their losses. I'd imagine that they'd drag you down from your ivory tower and beat the crap out of you.
I've been sensing a strong feeling that some people might need to get down off their high horse and join the community and cease creating ill emotion from others. People do have memories and that does go along with both investments and forums.
I think people should keep in mind that silver is still about 13% up over where it was 12 months ago. That's a damn sight better than most investments.
I've been through more spikes and floors dropping out than most over the years and yes, I am just fine and still active in metals. The bulk of my stuff was purchased long ago, though I remain active and continue to add to the hoard.
I can remember when silver was nearly cut in half from 8.50 or so down to the 4.75 range if memory serves, and it wasn't all that long ago. In fact, I made a killing on that and did it with physical, not any paper certificates. I happened to catch a fast moving elevator on the way up and sell out at the peak. Then I bought back in and pocketed a nice differential. I got hammered by a number of board members back then, called all sorts of names, still have some of the nastiest PMs one could imagine. All because of my belief that we were due for a tremendous spike and I actually mortgaged a paid off home to help me pull it off. RR remembers back then, he was one of the few supportive individuals.
While emotions shouldn't play a part in one's plans, we are human (at least most of us) and the results of our plans will bring elation or some sadness. To expect anything else is foolish.
Just kidding about the rest, sort of.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
To me, the main issue is the 'insider' status that was given to the banks. They have become the 'brown shirts' of the FED. Special insider status to go mug and strong arm the populace to keep them in order.
I hope that it does take place, just for the possibility that the public may get a chance to see what is, or is not, taking place with the PM market / industry.
Do we REALLY have a free market in the PM's....... or do we not. When one goes to a casino to gamble, one wants to know what the rules of the game are, and have at least a reasonable assurance that the cards are not marked or the game is rigged.
And this is a classic example of the emotion I am concerned about. No one robbed you of anything. You are not entitled to anything. I supposed you think you were robbed because your house declined by 200k after it rose 300k.
You have made up your mind about PMs and I admire your conviction.
I will relate a story of when I was a broker. We had a client who was convinced that JDSU was going to make him wealthy beyond comprehension. He was in his mid/late 50s and had about $500k in a IRA. He put it all in JDSU stock. Well, he was right. He turned that 500k in to almost 6 million in less that 18 months. Then the stock started to crack. We told him to sell at least 1/2 and put that into A-rated corp bonds that were yielding 8% at the time. He could have locked in a $250k per year income and still held a large position in JDSU. He said "no way". He was convinced that the internet would change commerc e and JDSU had the technology to make that happen. About 18 months after his acct was worth 6 million, it was worth 200K.
He had lost the opportunity for a fantastic lifestyle in retirement and he had lost 3 years of his life. Now at the age of 60, he no longer had enough live comfortably. And to think he was exactly right. JDSU did maker him a multimillionaire and the internet did change commerce. And yet he was so wrong.
I am not trying to sound condescending and if you perceived that then I am sorry, but you must also consider why you perceived my comments in the way you did.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
OK. How about clothing retailers who mark up some 500% or jewelers who mark up 500-1000%? Where did the extra money come from
Brian, this is not even remotely the same. Marking up a pair of jeans doesnt not create money. In fact it is propably just the opposite.Can you take that $50 pair of jeans and redeem it for $50 cash? No. But you can take that newly created oz of gold and redeem it for cash.
We are assuming in this thread that gold is a currency. Jeans are not currency.
Brian, I will be meeting with the PPT
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We are assuming in this thread that gold is a currency. Jeans are not currency.
Brian, I will be meeting with the PPT this weekend--JPM, FDIC, and a hedge fund guy. I am giving you the opportunity to ask the them any question you would like. What you you like my to ask?
1. I'm glad that people are starting to think of gold as currency.
2. Those jeans can be turned in for cash or similar barter, and well above the price they were manufactured for. Substitute soy, corn, coffee, beef, oil, gas, coins, art, pez dispensers, base ball cards, silverware, tools, beanie babies, etc. and you have items that have a cash value structure. It is very much the same as gold. Those jeans or other clothing are marked up several times their actual cost as they make the rounds to the end user. Those jeans may have cost $5 to make and have market value almost anywhere for 2X or 3X or 4X that amount. Money is created. Those Jeans have more real value than a $100 bill which is printed on security paper worth pennies. Down the road those jeans might be worth more than a $100 bill. In the Weimar scenario, the people were buying ANY hard goods they could before the currency devalued a few hours later. Hard goods were the only true money vs. the Weimar Mark.
4. Ask the FDIC how many weeks/months they anticipate before they run out money and have to be bailed out themselves. I'm sure they have discussed this at length with their superiors.
roadrunner
Keep in mind that every time the jeans change hands costs are incurred. Raw materials, manufacturing labor, transportation, inventory, retail labor, taxes etc. So money isn't really created, it's just allocated to produce and deliver a good. And for that to happen, another good will not be produced or another service rendered, so there's an opportunity cost as well. The end user will pay money that he earned in order to compensate the retailer for his costs plus some profit. The money doesn't really come out of thin air, it just moves around.
Why am I not surprised that they would be hanging out together?
I knew it would happen.
FED = Congress = ESF = JPM = GS = SEC = hedge fund = FDIC
roadrunner
Ask the FDIC how many weeks/months they anticipate before they run out money and have to be bailed out themselves. I'm sure they have discussed this at length with their superiors.
Is there anything else you would like to know? Seriously.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
hint SHE wrote a childrens book on saving money.
commercial banks and future problems
No big shocker, I was just contemplating the meaning of this phenomenon.
It probably just means that the USA is the largest economy in the world and that USD are in demand and accepted the world over. Whereas the yen and Euro may not be.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>JPM, FDIC, and a hedge fund guy
Why am I not surprised that they would be hanging out together?
Told you I was a member of the PPT.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
BYE BYE !!
Is this one reason the commodities, miners, and energy stocks are down?
It looks like some of the Wall Street players are getting caught in their own manipulations.
Ospraie’s flagship fund to be shut down
By Anuj Gangahar and Julie MacIntosh in New York
Published: September 3 2008 00:37 | Last updated: September 3 2008 12:30
Ospraie Management, the US hedge fund firm run by commodities trader Dwight Anderson and part owned by Lehman Brothers, is to shut down its flagship fund and return money to investors after the fund suffered heavy losses in August.
The Ospraie Fund, which was launched in February 2000, lost 26.7 per cent in August and was down 38.6 per cent over the year to date. It had about $2.8bn at the start of August.
In a letter to investors, seen by the Financial Times, Mr Anderson wrote: “I am extremely disappointed with this result and the fund’s sudden reversal in performance.” The losses were primarily caused by a sell-off in the fund’s energy, mining and resource equity holdings.
The letter said the balance of the fund’s assets, which will consist mostly of illiquid investments, will be returned as investments are sold off. The letter said it could take as long as three years to dispose of remaining portions of the portfolio.
The World is truly a weird place!!
How many of these bonds do the Wall Street banks have?
Islamic Bond Decree Cripples Sukuk, Imperils Projects (Update1)
By Haris Anwar
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The fastest-growing part of the global bond market is faltering, and it has nothing to do with subprime mortgages or the credit crunch.
Sales of Shariah-compliant debt, which financed Dubai's Palm development, the world's largest man-made island and where David Beckham and Donald Trump have homes, fell 50 percent in 2008 and prices dropped an average 1.51 percent, according to HSBC Holdings Plc index data.
The so-called sukuk market, which has doubled each year since 2004 and grown to $90 billion.
The bonds satisfy Islam's ban on interest by allowing investors to profit from the exchange of assets, rather than money.
More than half a trillion dollars in worldwide credit writedowns and losses squeezed lending in the Mideast as the Dubai Financial Market Real Estate Index of property-related stocks dropped 19 percent since January. Morgan Stanley analysts predict a 10 percent decline in property prices by 2010.
Citigroup's panel of Shariah scholars in London is led by Sheikh Nizam Yaquby, former chairman of the Bahrain-based accounting board. Yaquby, who advises about 40 financial institutions on Islamic financing rules, declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News.
"The losses were primarily caused by our failure to sell-off in the fund’s energy, mining and resource equity holdings.
<< <i>Their statement needs a minor editorial tweak...
"The losses were primarily caused by our failure to sell-off in the fund’s energy, mining and resource equity holdings. >>
Come on, you know the word "responsibilty" was removed from the dictionary long ago. Its always someone else's fault.
Redtiger mentioned in another thread the 80-90% corrolation of gold to oil. Here is a chart of oil.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The government and Freddie and Fanny cannot sell its paper so the central bankers manipulates the dollar higher.
Many of the Hedge funds, pension funds, etc. that have moved billions into the energy and commodity space are now losing billions with the false strengthening of the dollar.
As these big funds start to fail the government and the Fed step in to supply capitol, and print more debt to be sold thereby weakening the dollar.
This whole market is just too erratic to be invested in.
I for one am going to cover my small margin and just set and do nothing for a few months until these clowns play their games out.
Well there are those that will state that there is profit to be made from chaos but I'll be darned if I can tell whether to flip or fly. If the Oracle of Omaha can't profit in this market then us hacks sure don't have particularly good odds methinks. Excellent time to hide and watch, keep the powder dry but the eyes open but most of all, don't let the manipulators scare anyone out of their positions...this is all an illusion created to baffle and amaze...there is truly nothing to see here, move along.
Now, if you want to actually put your finger on the pulse of what is happening, check out the building permits issued for the last few quarters in your area of interest local, state, or national. If you get a heartbeat at all, just compare the number of building permits by quarter and you will get a feel for where your economy area of interest is and where it is going. Oh yes, look at total building permits by dollar value, not the number of permits issued and don't try and divine some meaning by breaking out residential, office, etc. This will tell you if there is any activity and if there isn't any then it's a good time to wait till there is.
Nice Chart, BTW
This has always been a Joke!
If they build it they will come? The Bonds are unsustainable! Short them!
Ever since I saw this project years ago, my first thought is how will they fill it?
It's concept is like Disney World Orlando without the rides. You take worthless real estate and you pump money into it and build it to be *perfect*.
Problem is, that the ONLY reason anyone would go there is because the Oil Money is buying its residents.
Unlike Orlando, once you get there, you have to be looking over your shoulder all the time for the mujahedeen a$$ holes who will cut off your family's heads for religious reasons.
Potential beheading is not a good trade-off for water-front property and access to good shopping, IMHO.
i feel the same way too about the markets GOLDSAINT (as stated in your first sentence of your last post above)
Now, it's coming to a theatre near you!
U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Tsunami,' Gross Says (Update3)
By Jody Shenn
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government needs to start using more of its money to support markets to stem a burgeoning ``financial tsunami,'' according to Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund.
Banks, securities firms and hedge funds are dumping assets, driving down prices of bonds, real estate, stocks and commodities, Gross, co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said in commentary posted on the firm's Web site today.
``Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami,'' Gross said. ``If we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury.''
<< <i>WOW!!!!! 51 years on this earth and i have never seen a stock market like this. Just hold on to your money or get some gold or silver that never will go to zero!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! >>
Yep, 3% in one day today, amazingly bad....
Exactly what does that mean?
As I "open up" the balance sheet of my own business, I see "Assets" and I see "Liabilities".
I assume that when I "open up" the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury, I see the same thing, only with hugely larger numbers.
I also notice that when I compare the "Assets" number to the "Liabilities" number, they are equal.
However, in this case I believe that by "opening up" the U.S. Treasury's balance sheet, Mr. Gross must mean to increase the numbers for both "Assets" AND "Liabilities".
How absolutely COOL!!
I knew it would happen.
Update on fund performances for the year to date, as we look towards the close of the 3rd quarter.
Stock fund: -16.39%
Global Equities fund -19.49%
Growth fund -15.69%
Inflation Linked Bond +4.41%
We are obviously in a bear market now, and no one knows where it will end, but if the market continues to drop, that will put pressure on metals prices, not support them. Destruction of wealth is a negative for commodity prices.
<< <i>yep. Even though gold and silver are not doing well.... looks like the stock market is doing even worse. Seems to be best just to hold on to cash for now. >>
True. Not many ports in this storm at the moment.
<< <i>yep. Even though gold and silver are not doing well.... looks like the stock market is doing even worse. Seems to be best just to hold on to cash for now. >>
honestly, i think that is what many many people are doing right now.
"holding" onto it means different things to different people, some it is surviving, others it may be getting out of all financials for a period of time.
<< <i>DID 2003 have the PM drop down along with oil. >>
oil, gold and the dow all made their lows in late march of 2003(oil retested in may) and moved higher for the balance of the year, although oil lagged gold and the dow for the year.
Public health care...hey how about public day care, that would release the care givers to participate in creating something instead of demanding that more be done for them; give everyone a sense of ownership instead of a sense of entitlement, give people a chance to get an education instead of a chance to get in line for benefits. This may be a bit ahead of the curve but it is certainly going to be important to a crippled economy to have people giving more instead of demanding and expecting more and I'm not talking about working till you're 70 either. Look for something like this new thinking (ala 1934) to surface in the next year or so. It's kind of a no brainer, instead of stripping the budget to pay for entitlements and programs, use that money to pay for projects and give people a chance to participate in making something better.
Social engineering is going to be a hot topic and it will probably be sugar coated and dipped in butter but look for it. I'm just wondering who will be brave enough to say it. So you can either raise taxes to pay for this stuff or you can lower taxes and have people take ownership. At some point, and maybe in the near future, the tax burden will be so excessive that the system will collapse. Of course you have to take into consideration that the cube dwellers are being taxed at about 50% of their income right now...IR S, property tax, fuel tax, sales tax, state income tax (in some places), etc. One of the more interesting things that crossed my thinking is that there is so much emphasis on the role of small business in the economic community but you know the first form you fill out every quarter is self employment tax...now, if they wanted you to make money and be successful, why would the first thing you pay be self employment tax; things that make you go DUH? I mean, why isn't there something like a self employment credit or a self employment incentive...once again, DUH?
Oh well, my Saturday diatribe on a Friday (it's a slow afternoon).
Works Progress Adminstration
Civilian Conservation Corps
edited because I misspelled inconceivable
One year charts from Kitco
The loss from the highs of the year, for those few that bought near the top, the eyeball estimate gives
gold down about 24% ($1040 to $795)
silver down about 43% ($20.50 to $12.20)
The FED and PPT is trying to paint the economy as good as commodities as bad. There is no limit as to what they will attempt to do towards this goal. Without their shenanigans in the S&P and Dow they would have spun out of control a long time ago.
This is all coming to a head in the "120 year" economic cycle. The last complete washout was in the early 1890's. We're still on track to bottom out stocks somewhere in 2011-2016.
roadrunner
Correct me if I'm wrong, isn't that the crash of 1893?
I remember that year from American History. I believe the railroads and banks completely failed, and unemployment was around 18%.
Funny, this morning on CBS 660 AM , they talked about the same thing.
So this economy is destined for the same fate in a few years?
Scott
BYE BYE !!!
I guess more big depositors can kiss their money goodbye?
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Silver State Bank of Henderson, Nevada was closed by U.S. regulators, the 11th bank to collapse this year amid a surge in soured real-estate loans stemming from the worst housing slump since the Depression.
Silver State, with $2 billion in assets and $1.7 billion in deposits, was shut by the Nevada Financial Institutions Division and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Nevada State will buy insured deposits for a 1.3 percent premium, the FDIC said. Silver State had about $20 million in uninsured deposits in 500 accounts.
Silver State's shares were unchanged at 56 cents in regular trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market yesterday and have tumbled 97 percent in the past year.
Who will bail out the Fed? What impact would a major bail out have on PM's?
Scott
Read more about it
by Gary North
So said the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the senior economic official in Great Britain. The story ran on August 30.
Britain is facing "arguably the worst" economic downturn in 60 years which will be "more profound and long-lasting" than people had expected, Alistair Darling, the chancellor, tells the Guardian today.
In the government's gravest assessment of the economy, which follows a warning from a Bank of England policymaker that 2 million people could be out of work by Christmas, Darling admits he had no idea how serious the credit crunch would become.
It was later reported by another source that the interview had taken place two weeks earlier.
This means that the economy by mid-August had convinced the Chancellor to give the interview.
I recall no negative economic statement this forthright by any incumbent senior politician in my lifetime. This simply is not done.
'The Worst Economic Downturn In 60 Years' LINK
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>The Fed is planning for the inevitable bail out of Fred and Fannie.
Who will bail out the Fed? What impact would a major bail out have on PM's?
Scott
Read more about it >>
it will keep the PPT very busy i suppose, no one knows how much ammo they have left.
unless they just massivly(sp) short it to $450 and $8..then it rises $80 and $1 a day for a 15 trading days straight..j/k
Your "diatribe" yesterday poses some interesting possibilities for our economy with the reintroduction of WPA/CCC-like programs. Social engineering and Universal Health Care and other mandatory programs paid by even more tax dollars. I can say that I don't want to live in that kind of economy or country. It has a certain -ist feeling to it. But I won't give up without a fight.
Public Allies is such a combined program that started 16 years ago, 2,200 organizers strong, funded by our tax money through the AmeriCorps and when fully funded will cost us $500 billion to achieve "...a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded" as the military. Some don't care to pay off the debt and be more fiscally responsible, some want us to go further into debt to achieve a collapse that will dissolve the middle class once and for all.
Oh, and the timely bailout of Fannie and Freddie this weekend helps these causes to move right along.
The first paragraph pretty much says it all...and then it just gets worse. One can see how all this unfolds.
UVPS
Ren